Ebola Surveillance Thread

Free Republic Threads ^ | August 10, 2014 | Legion

[Smokin' Joe]

I have spent a little time compiling links to threads about the Ebola outbreak in the interest of having all the links in one thread for future reference.

Please add links to new threads and articles of interest as the situation develops.

Thank You all for you participation.

[PistolPaknMama]

My sentiments exactly.

[Raebie]

Bkmk

[Boundless]

> I hope we look back at this and think ‘Sheesh we over reacted’

I've casually monitored the previous EHF outbreaks, but this time I'm taking steps. And any prep that involves buying stuff has to be done early. By the time lamestream media admits there's a problem, it will be too late.

Everyone needs to decide what their trip-level indicators might be (and what they need to do about it). Compared to prior outbreaks, one might look at:

• Record high number of victims and still growing.
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• No indication that the epidemics are under control anywhere.
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• More than two countries with high case counts.
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• Healthcare workers infected despite what were thought to be effective precautions.
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• At least one uncontrolled case resulting from air travel.
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• Reports of suspect cases world-wide.
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• International health organisations make alarming declarations: WHO "the Ebola outbreak in West Africa constitutes an ‘extraordinary event’ and a public health risk to other States".
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• Indications that infected but asymtomatic victims can spread the virus.
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• CDC admits direct physical contact not necessary "And casual contact we’re defining in here to be within three feet of a patient for a prolonged period of time."
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• Incompetent, malicious, and known dishonest Administration in office.
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Deliberately bringing victims to the U.S. for treatment is also unprecedented, but they aren't the fliers that concern me.

[Covenantor]

Darn good job SJ, thanks.

[Oorang]

I know this is way after the fact regarding your MRSA nightmare, but, check out this product (no, I don’t sell it or anything else). http://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8&page=1&rh=i%3Aaps%2Ck%3Abarbicide
It was originally geared for barber shops but is now marketed for “Hospital germicide, pseudomonacide, fungicide and virucide”. Reading the fine print on my container states “When tested with full immersion for 10 minutes in a solution prepared as above Barbicide has been found to be effective against:...Staphylococcus aureus methicillin resistant (MRSA),...”

[Cats Pajamas]

What if ebola was mutated in lab condition with influenza to make a bioweapon?

[Gadsden1st]

Thanks for that info. I know my barber uses it. During the infection, my wife lived in rubber gloves and we used PDI Sani cloth plus to wipe down everything. As bad as MRSA is, with the guidance we got from the Drs. and nurses, we never felt we were placing her in danger of her life.

Ebola is so far removed from MRSA I hate to talk about it on the same thread.

[EternalHope]

Thanks for this thread Smokin’ Joe. It will be a great resource.

Info in the medical community here in the U.S. is limited. Based on the information currently available, here’s what it seems to add up to right now:

1. Most cases in Africa are never officially reported.
The total number of cases is much higher than reported in the press.

2. Although we do not know the actual numbers, they are low relative to the total population.

3. We really know very little about this thing. About all we can say for certain is that it is NOT behaving the same way previous Ebola outbreaks have behaved, and that genetic sequencing shows changes that were not present in previous Ebola outbreaks.

4. This time around it is not “burning itself out”. In the past it was rare for transmission chains to be more than three. That is one of the primary reasons previous outbreaks were limited in scope and duration.

5. Local authorities in multiple African countries are trying to avoid panic. So far, widespread panic has been avoided. However, calling out the army to enforce movement restrictions is a worrisome sign.

6. Perhaps the most critical piece of missing information is when an infected person becomes contagious. The OFFICIAL line is that it is very difficult to catch from someone unless they are symptomatic. However, the official line is based on previous Ebola outbreaks, not the current one.

7. Worst case scenario: Based on simple statistics and the very limited amount we know so far, it will be late October or sometime in November before we see catastrophic numbers of cases in Africa. Let’s hope African medical systems and governments will be able to keep this from happening. If panic sets in the overall result will be worse.

8. Obviously, Africa will be hit first. Unless something changes it seems certain to spread to the rest of the world as well.

[Oorang]

“Ebola is so far removed from MRSA I hate to talk about it on the same thread.”
True but it is also, apparently, a powerful virucide (think decontamination) so I thought it was still pertinent.

[Shelayne]

Thanks, Smokin’ Joe!

[Shelayne]

Per a post from pops88 (again thanks!)on another thread, here is a link to a great source of info and compilation of links, with interesting commentary:

From the Pandemic Flu Information Forum—
http://www.singtomeohmuse.com/viewtopic.php?t=5725&start=915&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=

[Oorang]

Various "experts" in the media keep saying nothing to see here, move along; it's hard to catch, not aerosolized, etc. Even the CDC, in their statement to the public says as much. Yet in their guidelines for airlines they state: •Provide the sick person with a surgical mask (if the sick person can tolerate wearing one) to reduce the number of droplets expelled into the air by talking, sneezing, or coughing.

Ebola Guidance for Airlines

My general question is, do you see a contradiction here or am I reading too much into this?

[metmom]

Thanks for all that work.

[Gadsden1st]

I understand. Also not as expensive and can be sprayed on hard to access spots.

[Larousse2]

Atlanta, Georgia, be VERY CAREFUL with your drinking water if the source is recycled water via the Atlanta sewage system

[Black Agnes]

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20140810000198

"Korea’s Ministry of Food and Drug Safety said the Japanese antiviral drug was likely to be the first treatment allowed by FDA to fight the deadly virus in humans. “We are thinking of importing the Japanese drug as soon as possible in order to prepare for a potential outbreak of the virus in South Korea,” the ministry said.

The antiviral drug, named favipiravir, was created by Toyama Chemical, which is a subsidiary of Fujifilm Holdings Corp. ― a Japanese maker of digital cameras and medical devices. The tablet, which was first developed as an influenza cure, was recently proven to be effective in preventing lab mice from dying of Ebola.

The Japanese drug is currently being tested on Ebola-infected monkeys, and the research findings will be announced next month, according to Korea’s food and drug agency. "

No 'special serum' needed. It's already being manufactured in quantities needed and is available in pill form.

Let's hope it works. It will be way cheaper and easier to make available to wherever it's needed than any serum or vaccine.

[Domestic Church]

Thank you for compiling all these links.

[Black Agnes]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/nigerian-officials-announce-10-confirmed-cases-and-two-deaths-from-ebola/article19984000/?cmpid=rss1

[little jeremiah]

Niman says that some negatives are false negatives. His comments copied below the link. His comments are from Aug 5 so any numbers will be changed by now.

http://fluboard.rhizalabs.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=11920&sid=f42692d0560435ee4fa5d1548bd55f17

False Negatives Driving Ebola Monrovia and Lagos Transmission

Media reports on Ebola infections in doctors and missionaries appear to be driven by false negatives. Initial symptoms of Ebola can mimic Malaria, which is not infectious. Ebola is detected in blood, but initial testing can produce false negatives because a positive requires relatively high viral loads. The PPE’s being used for suspected Ebola cases is very cumbersome to put on and take off and are also very hot. Thus, such PPE’s are not used while treating non-infectious patients, such as those who are thought to have malaria because Ebola tests are negative.

The large number of HCWs and missionaries in Monrovia and Lagos appear to be driven by these false negatives.

Second Post:

Problems in Monrovia appear to be linked to American Patrick Sawyer’s sister, Patience Sawyer. She was a contact of Dr Sam Mutooro Muhumuza who treated patients in Monrovia. When he developed symptoms, she insisted that he did not have Ebola and she then cared for him at his home.

He was subsequently Ebola confirmed and died.

Third:

When Patience Sawyer developed symptoms, including heavy bleeding, she was brought to the hospital by her fiancee, who said she was having a miscarriage. She then received a D&C which did not stop the bleeding. She was treated by Dr Patrick Nshamdze, St. Joseph Catholic Hospital Chief Administrator.

He subsequently developed symptoms, but tested negative. He later tested positive and died August 1, leading to the closure of the hospital.

Fourth:

When Patience Sawyer was assigned to an isolation ward, her brother, naturalized American Patrick Sawyer, intervened. He insisted that his sister did not have Ebola. He changed her clothes and wheeled her to a private room. His shoes were drenched in his sister’s blood. He paid $500 cash to ensure that his sister was in a private room and not in isolation.

His sister subsequently was Ebola confirmed and she died.

Fifth:

Naturalized American, Patrick Sawyer, was a consultant for the Liberian Department of Finance. He flew to Lagos, Nigeria for a conference. He took one plane to Accra, Ghana and another plane to Lome, Togo and Lagos Nigeria. He developed symptoms (vomiting and diarrhea) in flight.

When he went to hospital he denied contact with any Ebola cases and was diagnosed with Malaria. He subsequently was diagnosed with Ebola and died. A female doctor who treated him has been Ebola confirmed and 8 additional HCW contacts are symptomatic and quarantined. 6 more HCWs (close contacts) are being closely watched and are not yet symptomatic.

Sixth:

Dr Patrick Nshamdze, St. Joseph Catholic Hospital Chief Administrator had been infected by Patience Sawyer, but he initially tested negative. Subsequently Brother Miguel Pajares, a missionary at the hospital developed symptoms and was Ebola confirmed.

Although weak, he is scheduled to be Medvac’ed out of Monrovia to Spain after 60,000 signatures were gathered at change.org to petition Spain to re-patriot him to Madrid.

3-6 additional missionaries are infected and in the hospital, which has been closed.

[Smokin' Joe]

Yes....and no. While the disease is not considered to be normally airborne, at the same time something that is not stressed is that this strain is 97% identical to Ebola Zaire. The 3% could be significant.

Aircraft air, iirc, is recirculated to some extent, and droplets in the coughed into the air might be distributed in the cabin. Best to stop them at the source, if possible.

I am not familiar with what, if any filtration occurs, nor the degree of recirculation (hopefully someone more knowledgeable can fill us in on that and allow us to better assess risk), but the idea of being the guy who changes filters might give one pause if there is a chance the active virus is present, especially since maintenance people tend to get small cuts and scratches in the course of their work.

I'm not trying to create any panic, here, but at the same time I think a realistic assessment of the risks given an infected person on board the aircraft would be prudent, not just for the passengers and crew but for the people they would contact, including those in the airport.

There seems to be indication that the infected individual need not be presenting symptoms to be able to spread the infection, and if that is the case, containment will be difficult.

Note, too, while N95 is better than nothing, N100 is the standard for filtration with this organism, and N95 may not provide protection.

Bottom line, though, this is a feelgood for airline personnel. If the passenger is infected, it is likely that a significant number of persons around them will be at the very least at high risk for infection, as will the crew who attend to the person showing symptoms.