Posted on 07/31/2014 11:19:44 PM PDT by No One Special
There's about a 21 day period between contracting ebola and the appearance of symptoms. Can the disease be passed to another before the symptoms appear?
So they start feeling lousy, fever kicks in, wipe their forehead (it's in the sweat), Grab the door handle, use the handrail going up the steps, get into the elevator, push the button and lean on the wall...they have left a trail of virii to be picked up by others...
Especially in a well traveled venue, the disease has ample opportunity to spread. What makes it tougher to spread in more rural settings is the absence of common contact surfaces where passersby are likely to make contact with the same surfaces as the victims. I am not so confident that would be the case in a modern urban environment.
You’re right; normally something like this would have burned itself out, not really mentionable since this happens every so often in Africa, it’s practically routine
First, they would alert the public. The differences in spread when people exercise caution are astonishing.
Second, you were right to use the plural "models". There are things we don't know that are critical. Even a small number of super carriers (infected but not showing serious symptoms) can completely change the dynamics. Just as Typhoid Mary infected thousands, and Gaëtan Dugas may have infected 3,000 or more gay men, an asymptomatic Ebola carrier could be a game changer. Even if Africa has not had super carriers, we may still have them with our healthier population and with a larger and more genetically diverse affected population. Also, behaviors will change if Ebola hits a few hundred Americans without being contained. Spread cannot be modeled properly without knowing how those behavioral changes will affect spread.
Trouble? Yeah, like a 50%-90% chance of not surviving.
If it hits the western countries, we will also see another factor.. panic. This is the time to quietly buy a few supplies to make it through a few months of shelter-in-place living.
It is not “airborne” except if someone with it sneezes.
Yes, there will be panic; I wonder how Obama will be treated. He’s considered a disgrace and the real problem solvers will probably want him out of power so they can at long last solve the entire mess that Obama created. As long as he’s in power nothing will be effectively resolved or strategized.
Thanks to all posters, linkers (read them all), researchers, educators. BTTT!
Thing is, that people might resist being put into quarantine. That is the only way that people might undermine any chance of containment, if they refuse to accept quarantine.
My guess is he will be used to the last drop and the masses will be told to admire him and they will. Suddenly, there will be a tragic accident. He will still be propped up and used like the bodies of Stalin and Mao. If it is necessary to turn on him, then bodies can still be used to let the masses vent their anger.
Right. Thats why trained medical personnel in full protective gear came down with the disease. I’m glad there is plenty of sand around for people to stick their heads in
And even if true what about the 20th century hygiene practiced in our inner cities? The amount of ignorance on this site is astounding.
EBH says “Hot Zone” says 10 days. I read and scientific article 2 days ago that said the virus can survive for 28 days on a surface....maybe a different strain?
Does anybody think that the plane or planes the diplomat was sick on were properly disinfected before the next group of travelers used the plane or planes?
Anybody want to sit in that seat?
Now explain to me why air travel to Africa has not been halted unless they want Ebola to spread across the world.
Maybe you should talk to some in the know hospital staff and see how scared they are....it is eye opening.
Hot Zone is decades old...
Red Dwarf Ping!
RIMMER (Sitting up) What do you mean, cheated?
KRYTEN There's no point in lying sir. You crept in here last night, knowing you were going to have a medical, and you copied the eye charts onto your shoes.
RIMMER I admit I might have taken a peek, but I'm a competitive man Kryten, always have been. That's what makes me what I am.
KRYTEN We're all perfectly well aware of what you are sir. Oh, the results. (Moves over to the panel, and returns with a small piece of card)
RIMMER (Standing) Ah, everything tickedyboo?
KRYTEN Would you like to take a seat for a moment sir?
RIMMER (Sitting on the bench) Problem?
KRYTEN You don't have any next of kin, do you sir?
RIMMER No, they all died of heart attacks. And not just heart attacks - aneurysms, strokes, brain clots, you name it.
KRYTEN Are you of the school that, when faced with bad news, prefers to hear that news naked and unvarnished, or are you of the ilk that prefers to live in happy and blissful ignorance of the nightmare you're facing.
RIMMER Ignorance, every time.
KRYTEN (Very cheerily) Congratulations sir! You've come storming through your medical with flying colours. See you next time.
RIMMER Everything's OK then?
KRYTEN Absolutely peachy.
RIMMER I want to know, Kryten, if there's something wrong.
KRYTEN If there were something wrong, sir, I would tell you.
RIMMER Even if I'd asked you not to?
KRYTEN Well no. In that case I would lie and tell you everything was absolutely peachy.
Yes, I know I read it years ago along with “Cobra Event”.
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
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