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To: Carthego delenda est
I’m sure the CDC has generated models of the spread . . . I don’t see how it could possibly be contained.

First, they would alert the public. The differences in spread when people exercise caution are astonishing.

Second, you were right to use the plural "models". There are things we don't know that are critical. Even a small number of super carriers (infected but not showing serious symptoms) can completely change the dynamics. Just as Typhoid Mary infected thousands, and Gaëtan Dugas may have infected 3,000 or more gay men, an asymptomatic Ebola carrier could be a game changer. Even if Africa has not had super carriers, we may still have them with our healthier population and with a larger and more genetically diverse affected population. Also, behaviors will change if Ebola hits a few hundred Americans without being contained. Spread cannot be modeled properly without knowing how those behavioral changes will affect spread.

63 posted on 08/01/2014 4:15:41 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
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To: Pollster1

Thing is, that people might resist being put into quarantine. That is the only way that people might undermine any chance of containment, if they refuse to accept quarantine.


69 posted on 08/01/2014 5:16:41 AM PDT by CorporateStepsister (I am NOT going to force a man to make my dreams come true)
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