Posted on 01/28/2011 3:01:22 PM PST by MindBender26
As many of you know, am old network TV newsie. Just tapped former proven source, retired VERY senior CIA officer. No Hq paper-pusher type, he is the real deal, a highly successful very senior ME field operator. Retired as ES-4.
From an intel assesment stanspoint, he is a proven source, with access to information, extensive field work in the area, no reason to lie and has always given good data in past.
His assessment (in shorthand:)
1. If Egypt falls, disaster for US. Put succinctly; "the horse we bet all our life savings on may be about to drop dead in the backstretch."
2. If Egypt gmvt falls, radical Muslim Brotherhood will be the new power, totally.
3. If Egypt falls, Jordan and Saudi are in trouble, but not necessarily gone. Even Syria is not safe.
4. Although Muslim Brotherhood would take over, the cause of revolt is not religion but the lack of jobs, horrible standard of living. Saudi and Jordan citizens have somewhat better conditions, so might be saved.
5. Egyptian Army is the absolute key. If Army stays local, Mubarak may be safe. If they falter, he is absolute toast.
6. Problem is, Army does not like Mubarak. They loved Sadat, he was one of them, but they do not like Hosni.
7. If Egypt falls, biggest winners are Iran and Russia. Iran becomes big kid on block. Russia desperately needs crude oil prices to go up to help economy. They prosper at $90 barrel crude. This could create $220, $250 a barrel crude oil prices
8. Big loser? Surprisingly not Israel. Just more enemies... who all know Israel will take war nuc if necessary to save self.... but due to US aid, Egyptian Army has great American equipment.
9. Biggest loser #2; Western Europe
10. Biggest loser #1; USA. Oil prices cripple economy. Even worse, word in every diplomatic circle becomes "See what happens to America's friends."
Bottom line; possible/probable disaster for US
It will be interesting to see whether the debate over increasing the debt ceiling will begin to encompass global strategic considerations. That is, while continued money printing is imperative to keep the US government operating, it's creating massive instability around the world that is now biting us in the ass.
Like many predicted, Ben is caught in a pincer. He's damned if he does, and damned if he doesn't. They tied, oh boy did they try, to kick the can rather than deal banker fraud & abuse. Looks like attempting to paper over criminal behavior, rather than enforce the rule of law, is going to have, shall we say "unexpected consequences".
The guy went back to Egypt in Dec of 2008. He was here long before the 2008 election. I W is a part of this, why cut him slack. Again, we don’t know what W or obama knew or knows.
Zer0 knew this was coming and he still stopped oil drilling in the Gulf and takes steps to shut down coal. Sounds more like conspiring against his own country . . . bald-faced treason in my book.
Hell no! We THROW Obummer out and drill baby drill as well as cook oil shale . Let the Middle East drink their petro.Its insane that we have bigger reserves than Saudi Arabia and can’t go after it . The survival of the nation will rest on getting rid of legislators who inhibit our ability to supply our own petroleum reserves.
GFL? (Good effin luck?)
WE must seize this opportunity.
I'm starting with Michele Bachmann.
Especially if he still won't let us drill.
Nice report - does he have any idea what we should do?
How so?
This has tremendous Biblical implications for those of us who are dispensationalists.
Now is the chance for Barry's secret Harvard Affirmative Action skills to shine!
Tell this old CIA guy to go find Obama’s BC. Get back to us when he finds it. Obama Probably Disaster for America.
John Bolton thinks Egypt is headed for democracy, not sharia.
Obama’s drilling ban will exasperate the situation for us.
LOL! Stupid brainwashed idiots watching Tv elkected a muslim in 2008. Maybe reality may interupt Oprah, Dancing with The Stars and a few ball games. Bring it on.
I was wondering also.
Here is a solution.
1. Open up all US oil fields for drilling.
2. Hire the unemployed.
Jobs like riggers, truckers, firemen, secretaries, executives, accountants, doctors, construction workers, etc... would have near instant employment. It could be the single most beneficial move the government could do to spur the economy.
Yeah and the stories put this as ongoing for the past 3 years which would mean, Bush.
If so, would not be surprised for Bush was naive and duped by advisors (such as FAUX Conservative and Jihadist Supporter Grover Norquist) about emphasizing the difference between Islamo-Fascists and the religion Islam, which is wishful thinking.
WHY we have not done more to forement, encourage (and support) and internal revolution in Iran, I'll never know!
It already is.
Unemployment numbers are cooked.
Bush started movement towards Mid East democracies but where Obama has taken it, and how he has been ‘played’ by others...
I don’t feel good about having a fool of a community organizer executing this.
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