Posted on 01/28/2011 3:01:22 PM PST by MindBender26
As many of you know, am old network TV newsie. Just tapped former proven source, retired VERY senior CIA officer. No Hq paper-pusher type, he is the real deal, a highly successful very senior ME field operator. Retired as ES-4.
From an intel assesment stanspoint, he is a proven source, with access to information, extensive field work in the area, no reason to lie and has always given good data in past.
His assessment (in shorthand:)
1. If Egypt falls, disaster for US. Put succinctly; "the horse we bet all our life savings on may be about to drop dead in the backstretch."
2. If Egypt gmvt falls, radical Muslim Brotherhood will be the new power, totally.
3. If Egypt falls, Jordan and Saudi are in trouble, but not necessarily gone. Even Syria is not safe.
4. Although Muslim Brotherhood would take over, the cause of revolt is not religion but the lack of jobs, horrible standard of living. Saudi and Jordan citizens have somewhat better conditions, so might be saved.
5. Egyptian Army is the absolute key. If Army stays local, Mubarak may be safe. If they falter, he is absolute toast.
6. Problem is, Army does not like Mubarak. They loved Sadat, he was one of them, but they do not like Hosni.
7. If Egypt falls, biggest winners are Iran and Russia. Iran becomes big kid on block. Russia desperately needs crude oil prices to go up to help economy. They prosper at $90 barrel crude. This could create $220, $250 a barrel crude oil prices
8. Big loser? Surprisingly not Israel. Just more enemies... who all know Israel will take war nuc if necessary to save self.... but due to US aid, Egyptian Army has great American equipment.
9. Biggest loser #2; Western Europe
10. Biggest loser #1; USA. Oil prices cripple economy. Even worse, word in every diplomatic circle becomes "See what happens to America's friends."
Bottom line; possible/probable disaster for US
Helloooooo....Look who WE have in office.
Not only a muslim sympathizer, but totalitarian at heart.
Maybe we saw (under W) that Mubarak couldn’t hold on so we are trying to install our own man. Wouldn’t be the first time.
King Obama is a Muslim.
I do not believe anything I see on our MSM. My take is this is direct orders from Muzzie Central and orchestrated through their Imams and Mullahs in the Mosques. Radical Islam is on the move. Obama is hopelessly inadequate to deal with this mess. We are in big trouble and Obama is a joke. The MSM is trying to claim this is a reaction of poor mistreated moderate peaceful Muslims. BS.
Normally- I’d agree with you- but in this case I think he’s well advised just to shut up. Even John Bolton suggested today the best course for the US right now is to stay alert and not say much.
You don’t have to be ex-CIA, just have a bit of common sense. If Egypt goes radical Muslim, we are in deep doo-doo. It will be hard to keep the rest of “our” despots in power and keep some oil coming this way. We could be back to a 1930 standard of living pretty quickly.
This started 3 years ago under Bush.
Sounds like a good, reality-based assessment. It’s refreshing in contrast to the pie-in-the-sky analyses we get from academics and journalists.
Yemen? Tunisia?
I didn’t ask, but they are not major powers in the area.
Probably gone too.
This would be a ideal time for some Republican(s) to take to the public airwaves (if they can get a soapbox on other than Fox) as well as introduce legislation and emphasize that this is a perfect example as to why we need to start developing our energy resources NOW and HAMMER Dear Leader and Demo-Rats for opposing and doing everything they can to prevent our doing so.
Yikes, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a comment like that from you!
Hmmm...his take on this is the standard line — America loses.
Though I don’t have any CIA credentials, just NAVSECGRU as a crypto-linguist involved in ME/Med/NAfrican intel, there are some bright aspects.
We shouldn’t be paying anymore support money to Egypt if they go radical Islamist. Of course, with Obama, who’s to know!
The Egyptians are exchanging one dictatorship for another. They’re going from the frying pan into the fire. What most folks don’t know is that the Iranians under the Shah, prior to Khomeini, weren’t starving which they are now. An Islamic theocracy will treat people even worse than Hosni Mubarek, so if they’re hungry now they’ll be dead of starvation in a while.
Most oil tankers are too big for the Suez Canal.
I’m sure I can think up a few more more later.
“Unless their middle name was “Hussein” and they were an America-hating, Muslim, Marxist, conflicted fool.”
Seriously based on 0dumbo’s past what else can we think?
This is very very scary
They said three years ago, not three years ago under Bush. Obama began running the State Department the day after he was elected.
Everyone says Iran is behind this. I wonder if Putin is behind this? Cui Bono?
I doubt the “brothers” are going to come out on top this time. We will support the secular up front and heavy before another “Iran” happens.
If gas goes to $5, unemployment will be more than 10%.
ping
If the Egyptian Army loved Sadat, they had a strange way of showing it, since it was they who assassinated him, or at least a splinter group of the Army.
Also, thanks for nothing to Hillary Clinton and her State Dept. and whichever of Obama's Czars is responsible for the Arab world for being totally blindsided by all this. I guess a few new apartment blocks being built by Israel on Israeli soil was the bigger problem. Incompetent political hacks, every one.
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