Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
|
|
||||
| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
|
| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
|
PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
I think he struck out A-Rod and Derek Jeter a few times.
Yes, we've been to Camden Yards many times. It's a lovely ballpark... why do you call it Crammed In Yards? We find it quite comfortable, for the most part (especially the Club Level). And the "Oreo" fans we've met have been very nice so far, even though we're cheering against their team. (MUCH nicer than Phillies fans... LOL)
I've noticed fans there and at other ballparks we've been to (except Wrigley Field) seem to need the "make noise" sound effects to wake them up. Not so at Fenway or Wrigley. During the game all you hear is crowd noise... the way baseball used to be. There is recorded music played between innings.
The two ballparks with the LOUDEST, most annoying sound effects that we've been to so far: Yankee Stadium and Shea Stadium (Mets). If you're unlucky to have to sit across from one of the booming speakers, I guarantee you'll leave with a splitting headache.
It would be great to see this “Dice-K” guy get an RBI on this at-bat.
NL rules suck—Lugo on second only to have the pitcher
come up, and strike out.
Do pitchers hit in Japan?
I never get used to seeing pitchers at bat. Very strange.
Same time
They said in one league they do and in one there is a DH.
Dice K was in the league that has a DH I think they said.
The weird thing is that Fogg pitched to him exactly like he did the rest of the lineup. Those breaking balls down in the zone or the sliders away a foot off the plate. I figured he’d just throw fastballs.
Francona should have had Dice-K batting 8th so the Sox would have another lead off potential for the top of the line up.
I wouldn’t want Dice K up there swinging anyway. If you don’t practice a swing then it’s easy to pull an oblique.
Well that’s all right. At least the line up gets to turned over with Lugo’s hit.
The Japanese Pacific League uses the DH. The Japanese Central League doesn’t.
Yeah but If he leads off with the 2B then we have a different game situation.
But there was one in between inning feature that was great. It was "Dusty the Frisbee-throwing Dog" and it was great. I saw Dusty at a couple of games and thought for sure this dog would be a big star on TV. But nothing ever came of it.
The show was spectactular. Three girls go running out on the field with hula hoops and they toss them onto the field in such a way that they hit the ground and start going backwards. Suddenly you hear a sound like a gun-shot and this medium-sized black dog with tan legs (Dusty) comes barreling on the field and runs right through the hula hoops before they come back to the girls.
Then some guy came out and started throwing a frisbee and this dog was making some spectacular catches. But what really brought the crowd to its feet was the fact that the dog would actually throw the frisbee back to the guy after catching it. The dog would sort of snap its head and toss the frisbee right back to the guy. The crowd would go totally nuts. Never saw anything like it in my life.
Thought for sure I'd see this dog on David Letterman or something but never did. Maybe Dusty got run over by a car or something. A real shame, because this dog could have been more famous than Rin Tin Tin.
Dice K gets the number 8 hitter so Fogg gets to lead off.
24 pitches through 2 innings. That will help him get through 6. He’s got the pitcher next inning so that’s a chance for an out to start off and he’s pitching from the wind up for Matsui.
Fogg has 39 pitches. Dice-K is throwing 67% strikes, Fogg 61%.
They need to show some better discipline at the plate. Drew tries to pull an outside pitch (AGAIN) and grounds out.
Lead off 2B by Jacoby!
Speed!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.