Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
We’ll see if Fogg’s pitches stay up in the zone....then it will be batting practice.
If you’ve ever been to Crammed In Yards in Baltimore, the few Oreo fans that show up don’t know when to cheer. They wait for the “make noise” or “lets go O’s” signs to go up...and then when the signs go away so does the cheering. Then you hear the Red Sox fans spontaneously begin singing Sweet Caroline...big contrast.
The media, FOX, try to keep the viewers interested. So they make contradictory statements
Well, I think you have to consider that FOX really, really wants this Series to go more than four games. They need to promote the contest to keep the audience tuned in.
They sure do want to keep it going.
Remember— there’s only one October. ;)
Damn good thing, too. I can only stand one Halloween a year.
The Red Sox viwership is rather large and the only thing keeping this worthwhile for the network.
Good start!
Jacoby...nice OBP so far..
Hi folks..
nice start
Ellsbury on from a swinging bunt...steal time.
The crowd is quieting...
Pedroia shows the wheels.
I feel the need, the need for speed!
Couldn’t get 2, couldn’t even get 1—
Sox have 1st and 2nd, nobody out and Ortiz up
Fogg’s stuff does not look too impressive so far.
I’d send him to 3B while Fogg is crapping his pants pitching to Papi.
Oops.
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