World Series Live Thread: Colorado Rockies vs. Boston Red Sox

YahooSports.com ^ | 10-23-07 | Yahoo! Sports

[GraniteStateConservative]

vs.

Game 1 at Boston (Wed., Oct. 24, 8:35 p.m.)

Josh Beckett vs. Jeff Francis

Game 2 at Boston (Thurs., Oct. 25, 8:29 p.m.)

Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez

Game 3 at Colorado (Saturday, Oct. 27, 8 p.m.)

Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Josh Fogg

Game 4 at Colorado (Sunday, Oct. 28, 8 p.m.)

Aaron Cook vs. Jon Lester

Game 5* at Colorado (Monday, Oct. 29)

Game 6* at Boston (Wednesday, Oct. 31)

Game 7* at Boston (Thursday, Nov. 1)

AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios. 

Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations

AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.

The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.

Game	Starters	COL	BOS
Game 1	Francis vs. Beckett	31.2%	68.8%
Game 2	Jimenez vs. Schilling	35.7%	64.3%
Game 3	Matsuzaka vs. Fogg	52.1%	49.2%
Game 4	Lester vs. Cook	56.3%	43.7%
Game 5	Beckett vs. Francis	45.9%	54.1%
Game 6	Jimenez vs. Schilling	35.7%	64.3%
Game 7	Fogg vs. Matsuzaka	39.0%	61.0%
	WIN SERIES	33.2%	66.8%

Red Sox 25-man Roster

PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.

CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.

INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.

OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.

Rockies 25-man Roster

PITCHERS (11): Jeremy Affeldt, Aaron Cook, Manuel Corpas, Josh Fogg, Jeff Francis, Brian Fuentes, LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Herges, Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, Ryan Speier.

CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.

INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.

OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.

[misterrob]

Few comments:

Dice-K should be working fastball and change up and stay away from the curveball tonight.

Sox have to work the counts on Fogg since he averages less than 100 pitches per start. He isn’t a strike out pitcher and he allows base runners. They should be able to get him out of the game by inning 4/5 again. He is very beatable if the Sox play their game properly.

This chit chat about the Rockies being able to equalize things at home is all just crap. The Sox ran up pitch counts, drew walks and hit bad pitching. Beckett and Schilling threw strikes, the Rockies pitchers didn’t. Thursday’s game should not have been 2-1 with all the men they left on base. If the Sox have the lead they can go Max defense in the 8th or 9th inning by putting Youk at 1st and Crisp back in CF with Ortiz and Manny out of the game. Sox have HR power of their own, they have plenty of speed and they have won on the road this playoff.

Will Francona be able to manage like a NL Manager again? He has speed on this team that he doesn’t use properly and tonight he has his pitcher hitting 9th which is a trend that NL teams are moving away from by batting the pitcher 8th. 9th hitter is another lead off guy for your #3 hitter. Without Youk’s base on balls at the top of the line up that’s going to cut down the run potential. Dice-K has no chance of getting on base without a walk. Lugo was nothing special with .OBP but even once in the game will be a vast improvement.

How many Rockies have been to or won a WS? I know the Sox have 8 guys WS active who have won a series plus a manager, hitting coach and Wakefield hanging out.

This series is not over but Colorado is playing a team with more balance that anyone they have faced all year.

[big'ol_freeper]

Tessie is the Royal Rooters rally cry
Tessie is the tune they always sung
Tessie echoed April through October nights
After serenading Stahl, Dinneen and Young
Tessie is a maiden with a sparkling eye
Tessie is a maiden with a love
She doesn't know the meaning of her sight
She's got a comment full of love
And sometimes when the game is on the line
Tessie always carried them away
Up the road from "Third Base" to Huntington
The boys will always sing and sway

Two! Three! Four!

Tessie, "Nuf Ced" McGreevey shouted
We're not here to mess around
Boston, you know we love you madly
Hear the crowd roar to your sound
Don't blame us if we ever doubt you
You know we couldn't live without you
Tessie, you are the only only only

The Rooters showed up at the grounds one day
They found their seats had all been sold
McGreevey led the charge into the park
Stormed the gates and put the game on hold
The Rooters gave the other team a dreadful fright
Boston's tenth man could not be wrong
Up from "Third Base" to Huntington
They'd sing another victory song

Two! Three! Four!

Tessie, "Nuf Ced" McGreevey shouted
We're not here to mess around
Boston, you know we love you madly
Hear the crowd roar to your sound
Don't blame us if we ever doubt you
You know we couldn't live without you
Tessie, you are the only only only

The Rooters gave the other team a dreadful fright
Boston's tenth man could not be wrong
Up from "Third Base" to Huntington
They'd sing another victory song

Two! Three! Four!

Tessie, "Nuf Ced" McGreevey shouted
We're not here to mess around
Boston, you know we love you madly
Hear the crowd roar to your sound
Don't blame us if we ever doubt you
You know we couldn't live without you
Tessie, you are the only only only
Don't blame us if we ever doubt you
You know we couldn't live without you
Boston, you are the only only only
Don't blame us if we ever doubt you
You know we couldn't live without you
Red Sox, you are the only only only

[dancusa]

I first heard about the song “Tessie” in the early seventies. I recall watching Johnnie Carson. He had a guest by the name of Burt Mustin. Burt was in his 90’s at the time and had been a character actor for a number of years. His most famous role was “Gus the Fireman” on Leave it to Beaver. Mustin happened to be a Pittsburgh native and he was recalling the 1903 World Series with Johnny. Burt mentioned the Boston team’s Royal Rooters. They sang Tessie over and over again.

[CASchack]

Oh no! More towel waving. I thought we left that behind in Cleveland.

[misterrob]

They can be used as hankies too!

[GraniteStateConservative]

[CASchack]

A few big hits early by the Sox and things will quiet right down at Coors Field.

[misterrob]

David Ortiz hit the Office Liquidators.com sign out in right field in batting practice today. That sign, which is on the facing of the third deck in Coors Field, is a long, long, long way from home plate. It’s two tiers above a 375-foot sign.....

Boston.com

[GraniteStateConservative]

Carrie Underwood is good luck for the Red Sox. The last American Idol to sing in a World Series game was Kelly Clarkson, singing"God Bless America" during the 7th inning stretch of Game 1 of the 2004 World Series in Fenway Park-- a game we won in a series we won.

MOJO.

[misterrob]

That was one of the best renditions of the National Anthem that you will ever hear. I get so pissed off listing to the R&B singers pimp the song.

[big'ol_freeper]

"Oh no! More towel waving. I thought we left that behind in Cleveland."

Yeah.....

[GraniteStateConservative]

The idea that Coor’s Field is bad news for the team that had a better slugging percentage than the team that plays all of its home games there is laughable by the media.

[nutmeg]

Geesh... Waving white towels, flashing lights, disco music, fireworks, NBA-like announcer... I'll take the more traditional type of baseball in our quaint little 1912 antique Fenway Park any day over this glitz and glamour.

Carrie Underwood did an excellent job with the National Anthem though...

[nutmeg]

That was one of the best renditions of the National Anthem that you will ever hear. I get so pissed off listing to the R&B singers pimp the song.

AMEN... Carrie was wonderful. I don't like James Taylor's wimpy version of our National Anthem either.

[Boston Blackie]

[Red Steel]

"David Ortiz hit the Office Liquidators.com sign out in right field in batting practice today. That sign, which is on the facing of the third deck in Coors Field, is a long, long, long way from home plate. It’s two tiers above a 375-foot sign....."

The ball flies too good in Colorado. I've seen some monster homers in the state...and I've hit a couple long ones here too. :-)

[CASchack]

The local minor league hockey and baseball announcers here sound very much like that Coors Field announcer. A little of that goes a long way.

[nutmeg]

There was much towel-waving at the Arizona Diamondbacks home field (whatever its name is) also.

Tom Werner, Chairman of the Boston Red Sox: "Towels? We don't need no stinkin' towels at Fenway!" LOL

[misterrob]

Amen to that. The Rox also didn’t do anything at Fenway which is supposed to be a good offensive park.

Here’s hoping that Dice-K can sack up and get the job done. No need to let Colorado get back into this.

[nutmeg]

Yeah, I’ve heard announcers like that at NHL and NBA games, and I think college basketball games as well. Gives me a headache after awhile...