Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
World Series celebration and parade photos also at the above WBZ link.
Thanks for the link! I just LOVE this guyjust picked up the latest SI.
Congratulations .... sometimes dreams do come true! See you at the World Series!!
I immediately thought of that song, “Don’t Let Me Lose This Dream” and I thought, yeah, just hold on and it could happen....:) It worked for you and all the faithful BoSox fans!
The Dodgers are overdue for some postseason play. Did you know that Vin Scully is still calling Dodger games? Same golden voice, and next year will be 50th anniversary of the L.A. Dodgers. Suddenly, I feel incredibly OLD....:(
So, any word on when your team goes to the White House?
Their inability to build a new ballpark is going to haunt them for a long time. They should have been able to build a 45-48K stadium that would have provided 8-10K reasonably priced seats. Instead they will top out at 38K and that means they keep raising prices.
I will be curious to see how they will deal with ticket prices as the payoll comes down in the next two years. I estimate that at least $70 million will be subtracted from what they started with in the beginning of 2007.
The ‘ list ‘ was announced on WEEI minutes ago. Jason Variteks name is on the list. Will you be posting a Red Sox faithful thread about this?
That’s not “the list.” It’s a rumor.
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