Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
|
|
||||
| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
|
| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
|
PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
WOO-HOO... Love those two World Series banners!
Hey, don’t forget to get your FREE Taco BELLsbury today at Taco Bell, between 2-5pm. ;-D
Don’t forget to check in with us later, and give us your impressions of today’s Rolling Rally...
Crowd chanting "Yankees suck!"... Channel 5 lowers the audio quickly... LOL
Well, that was quick.
David Ortiz said earlier today that he will have knee surgery on Monday...
Saw bits and pieces of the victory parade on TV. Papelbon did his dance and used a broom as an air guitar (and also
used it to “row” the duck boat/platform he was on,
especially during the playing of “Dirty Water”). A crowd
that could well surpass the ‘04 celebration (ironically
enough I think it also took place on Oct 30, a Saturday
in ‘04). Many chants of “Re-sign Lowell”, “Yankees Suck”,
etc.
Today’s Herald mentioned that Papelbon was actually ill
during game 4 (”undisclosed illness”) but made it through
(I thought I heard something about “he threw up on the
plane” but I was half listening at the time). He
seemed in good spirits today though.
I saw the whole thing today on NESN and on the WCVB Channel 5 Boston live stream (Channel 5 did a better job than NESN). Papelbon was hilarious as usual... glad he finally put on the kilt, given to him earlier today by the Dropkick Murphys (it has his #58 sewn on it).
I don't know of Papelbon was ill during game 4, but I'm pretty sure he was throwing up on the plane (confirmed by Pap and Big Papi) because he was so hung over from the World Series celebration. LOL
Manny being interviewed live by Channel 5 now... Manny says he would like to "retire as a Red Sox". He'd like to see his retired number hanging with the others over right field at Fenway. "If not, hey, man... life goes on."
I was there in 2004 as well. Cold and miserable weather, but what fun! Wish I could have been there today, but the notice was too short. After all, I not only have to get off work, but fly up to Boston!
The whole plane was filled with Sox fans when I flew up in ‘04. We started the party early!
Oh, wow... what fun! Where do you live?
We're a mere 2 hours' drive away from Boston, but there's no way either of us could be in Boston today. Wish the parade had been on Friday or Saturday. I realize the players want to go home right away though...
Oops... I see you live in Maryland.
Local members of The Nation went out for a celebratory lunch yesterday instead. Lots of transplants here!
This was the orig poster
He absolutely loved and appreciated those chants of "Let's go, Lugo!" from the Fenway Faithful during the time he was struggling at the plate, earlier this season. That's something you'd never hear from Yankee fans... all you'd hear would be BOOs.
Oh, you’re back! Fabulous photos... thank you!
Great Pics man. I almost jumped on the train to Boston this morning but wussed out. Now i’m kicking myself!!
Don't forget your free Taco Bell taco today! YOu have until 5pm to get it... ;-D
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.