Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
|
|
||||
| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
|
| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
|
PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Channel 5 also streaming online:
http://www.thebostonchannel.com/tu/5sXzNurdu.html
Needless to say, not getting a lot done at work today.....
What an incredible story Jon Lester's life has been... talk about "ups and downs". Even Hollywood couldn't come up with a story like this... :o)
Me neither... LOL ;-D
114 days until spring training.
Did you hear Papelbon tell the blonde ditz interviewing him at Fenway that he had been puking all morning?
ROTFL! ;-D
Yes I did. Somehow that does not surprise me.
Yeah, the blonde was Kathryn Tappen (sic). LOL... Papelbon is too much!
THANKS for that... I can hardly wait! :o)
We may try to see the Red Sox during spring training. We were sort of planning a trip to FL (mainly to visit my in-laws) whether or not the Sox won the WS. Now I imagine tickets will be nearly impossible to come by.
If anyone has been to Red Sox spring training and can offer me any advice, I'm all ears!
We've been to other team's spring training (only because their ballparks were located near my in-laws' house), but we've never been to see the Red Sox at Fort Myers.
I just hope opening day at Fenway is against the Yankees again.
Oh yeah! Wouldn't that be sweet? ;-D
Not that I need a reason. :-)
I wish I could record WCVB's video for my husband, who is at a conference in NYC. Unfortunately we're stuck with NESN's video...
"RE-SIGN LOWELL!!! RE-SIGN LOWELL!!!"
Love it! :o)
Not for the 4 years at $13 million a year he’s going to want or find someone to give him.
It’s best to love the team first and the players second. We loved Pedro but where would we be with him/D. Lowe, Arroyo/Nixon and Nomar today? Young talent is how you build lasting teams with fill ins of key positions.
I loved what Mike did here in 2007 but let’s not ignore his 2005 and 2006 years either. Mike wouldn’t be the first (or last) guy to max out on a contract year.
If the Sox let all of their FAs go, get out from Clement and other injured player contracts and dump Crisp they have at least $40 million free. After 2008 they will have close to another $40 million when Tek and Manny go. With all of the talent they are developing and some wise FA spending this team will compete for at least 5-6 years....maybe longer.
Gordon Edes (Boston Globe) hinting to Tom Caron on NESN that Schilling will probably not be back... and that the Chicago White Sox *might* be interested in A-Rod...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.