Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
I was completely wiped out at work today. I had to suck down about two liters worth of Diet Mountain Dew just to get through it. If Selig was a real commissioner he’d be more interested in what’s the best long term interest of the game rather than the short term advertising dollars.
:-)
Are you falling to the Dark Side?
Well, we now expect them to win the WS every year of course. Hey, we're entitled to it, right? /sarc
Seriously, there has been much discussion on WEEI radio that the young Red Sox fans - particularly the "jump on the bandwagon since 2004" fans (aka "pink hats") have that attitude. All they've known pretty much since they've come of age is that the Boston Red Sox are a "winning team". They don't remember the teams from our youth, when the Red Sox were awful, and when maybe 1,000 people showed up at Fenway on a given night. The Red Sox have come a long way since those days...
Kewl! Tell us all about it, and - if you can - please take pics and post 'em on FR. Especially of Papelbon doing that jig... LOL.
Yikes... that much caffeine would kill me, I think. You're gonna be up all night!
I agree... I heard SO much grumbling from just about everyone today about having to wait 'til after midnight (after 1am for some of the games) to see the end of last night's game. And we're adults... what about all the little kids who are baseball fans. Going to bed night after night at midnight, 1am, then getting up early for school?
Warsaw44: You should get over to Fenway NOW if you can... the Red Sox are due to arrive there momentarily. It’s live on NESN now!
Oh I’ll get plenty of shut eye tonight. Heck I’m already drowsy.
That’s the real problem with these games starting so late. The young kids can’t watch them so how are they supposed to grow into baseball’s next generation of fans?
And don't even get me started on the Super Bowl being so late on a Sunday night... Why not "Super Bowl Saturday"?
Just expecting them to win mentality....
Absolutely. If the Super Bowl were on a Saturday night folks wouldn’t be in a hurry to leave from parties because they wouldn’t have to go to work or school the next day!!
We will keep an eye on you ... just in case.
Now, thats an idea! I’ll take my bike over there now. On WEEI they said the boys just got off the airplane at Logan.
Yep, TC and RemDawg said the plane containing the team, Orsillo and Tina Cervasio landed at Logan about 10 minutes ago or so... Big crowd at Fenway. TC and RemDawg set up at their usual place on Yawkey Way.
Also, Tom Caron just announced that NESN will cover the Rolling Rally tomorrow... coverage starts at 11am on Tuesday, October 30.
If you're near a TV, tune to NESN now... the Red Sox just landed at Logan and are on their way to Fenway for some kind of rally or celebration. Crowds are lining the streets near Fenway, and Tom Caron and Jerry "RemDawg" are set up at their usual "game day" spot on Yawkey Way.
But if so one of the best (If not the best) Managers goes to the National league.
Good for us!
I’ve always liked Joe Torre. It will be interesting to see how he manages the Dodgers, if the rumor is true. Now that Torre’s gone from the Evil Empire, it will be easier for me to “hate” the Yankees... LOL
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