Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
I think you are wrong about that. The rule is if the ball is hit to him at 3b and it is hard enough so he does not have to come in on the ball he will go to second (unless there is a fast runner). If he has to take even a step in on the ball then he goes to first. That is standard 3rd base play.
Youk will likely be in soon.
The thing I love about Brady is that even when he was out of the game he was over near the sideline having a discussion with a ref concerning something he felt they got wrong during the game. It was not heated but he was not going to let the ref get away without hearing his opinion. He demands perfection of himself and expects it from the officials too.
Did you see the Redskins player jawing with a ref near the end of the game? As he was jawing right after the call the ref went to take the ball, the skins player jerked it away from him and continued to shoot his mouth off.
Manny Ortiz have pretty much sucked again tonight.
Ortiz tries to pull an outside pitch because his ego needs to hit a HR and Manny beats down on an inside pitch again.
I know the rule, but I’ve seen Lowell elect to go to first instead of second a lot this season on two outs. I don’t remember what kind of jump the baserunner had, though.
It just struck me as a bit of a deviation from earlier.
Missed that. I changed to NESN at 1900 hours. Packers played the Redskins earlier in the season and I was not impressed with the Skins.
Manny needs to get a helmet that fits him. What a goof.
Manny has to stop already messing with his helmet every time. It’s almost as annoying as listening to Tim “I Beg your Pardon” McCarver attempting to explain it!
Sox are on cruise control snoooozing away unless the Rockies wake up their dead bats in the game.
Ellsbury been a sucker for stuff breaking down and in a few times.
Think Tito is taking Lester out a bit too early?
I have to see how his replacement does before I decide.
This the way of all true Boston fans.
Lester out, the other Manny in ... I should turn in now
Sad day in Packerland today.
He’s in the low 90’s and he’s been dancing with danger. as good a time as any I guess.
delcarmen has command problems as well though...
The Pack can win one for him tomorrow night.
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