Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Who's in after Lester?
Delcarmen ahsn't been in yet right?
He was in last night. Did not pitch well.
The Sox don’t appear to be seeing the ball well tonight and it shows in their swings. Manny got owned on an 88 mph pitch. Ortiz missed a high one then got way under the last one he saw. Manny at least drove one but it went directly to the outfielder.
This is a good performance by Cook though. Time to change tactics.
No and this is not really the best situation for him either.
Ground balls are what you get from a sinkerball pitcher, especially when he’s throwing low strikes, as Cook has been. A little more patience at the plate will get the pitch count up, and slow the balls’ rotation as his arm tires. Then, expect the hitters to start to get more elevation on their swings.
Doh!
I agree that the Red Sox bullpen is a bit tired now...I think the team that gets into the other teams bullpen earliest wins this game. The Red Sox would be smart to save the bullpen they need for Beckett by using Kyle Snyder tonight to burn some innings regardless of W/L impact.
I fully expect someone in this lineup to make something happen.
Nice play by Lugo....always during these coach interviews.
Fast ball after fast ball to this guy...
Now that's just smart baseball.
That was a bad pitch sequence by Lester and Tek.
Lester’s downfall is that he does not pound the zone. He goes ball/strike/ball/strike and takes himself out of games by the middle innings.
yeah but nothing in the zone
I'm beginning to think that WE'RE tired here. The thread has been subdued.
4 shutout innings and only 2 hits...
You gotta admit this has been a REALLY quiet kinda ho-hum game so far.
Lester, 68 pitches, could go 3 more. We need some runs!
Lester’s pitch count is 68 after 4. He needs a short inning.
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