Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
LOL...I thought there was an actual bug on my laptop.
Sorry, couldn't help myself ... ô¿ô¬
They are hitting the ball but beating it into the ground. That’s a case of waiting too long on the pitch. Drew had the right idea but he got under it too much.
Manny looked graceful...
Wake up out there, Manny!
Manny, being Manny.
Manny needs a dope slap for that one!
This inning could be trouble.
Lester sure has great movement on his pitches.
And Lester is being Lester by missing his pitches and leaving stuff out there to be hit. 46 pitches so far and that’s to 11 hitters.
Buchholtz would have been a better bet with his change and command of his pitches.
Thanks Mom!
Great job Lester! My son is doing homework so for now Acapesket is really me. Ugh... I sound like Sally Field!
I like Buchholz but he’d been shut down for the rest of the season. Lester is keeping the batters off balance, so this is good.
Slow infield surface. Huge out field. I'd rather chase GB's than cover that outfield (as Manny just showed).
The Rockies are chasing GBs.....
Not good for the sox
Good for us!
The Sox will come around.
This is Boston!!!
His pitch count is climbing though and that’s gonna be a problem tonight. He’s kind of a strike out pitcher but he needs 5 and 6 pitches to do it. If he’s throwing 4.5 pitches per batter then he’s going to be out after 5 and that means middle relief that the Sox don’t have.
Both Ortiz and Manny have looked at good pitches.
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