Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Isn’t he horrible? I love Tina!
Your average Fenway fan would rather wear a pink Yankees’ hat in a Southie bar then wave a white towel or use Thunder Sticks or any of that other crap.
Crap, base hit by Hawpe... Rockies on the board.
God I’m mean. I just remarked to my husband ‘Man it’d be funny as hell to get a double play while the Rockies fans are still celebrating that run’
There’s a $5 million buy out as well.
Thats just what I praying for.
It’s almost just as bad at 1B:
Sean Casey
Scott Hatteberg
Shea Hillenbrand
Mike Lamb
Travis Lee
Doug Mientkiewicz
Mark Sweeney
Daryle Ward
Craig Wilson
I’m having flashbacks to Cleveland over those moronic towel wavers.
They actually handed out yellow towels at Fenway before game 1, but the fans had the good sense not to wave them, but instead use them to wipe the rain off the seats.
Get Lopez out of there. He’s doing nothing.
Nuts to you Lopez.
Get this guy outta there.
Damn it. I knew Dice-K was out of gas this inning. If you have followed his season as of late you can tell he starts to lose it as he hits 80 pitches.
Francoma brings in Lopez who gives up two hits. As a lefty reliever he is terrible.
Sox are bleeding right now and I’m getting stressed. Colorado has woken up and there is a lot of baseball left to go.
Lopez didn’t help any.
He’s gone. Doesn’t help that the umpire has been squeezing the strike zone (suddenly).
Dice-K The Power Nibbler walked two guys... Varitek couldn’t advance the runner back in the 5th (?)... Manny’s stupid base running, and here we are... it’s now a 4 run game.
Holy Toledo...man, that was close.
That was too bleepin’ close.
The Sox have the 1B they got in the 3way WMP deal.
I’d like them to keep Lowell though
Just a long out.
Lugo!!
What a catch.
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