Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Geez will someone stuff a sock in McCarver’s mouth about Youk and the damn sleeves?
It would be fine with me if they decide not to, particularly since the Rockies look so flat. I don’t think will fire up the Rockies or make Manny back off the plate.
They can try to offer him 1B but that’s not his position. They need to find AB’s for Andy Phillips and Giambi as well.
Turning 34 I believe.
can anyone make out what the Rockies fans are saying?
Too much money really.
It’s hard to wrap your brain around how ridiculously awful our non-Lowell options are (if A-Rod stays put):
Aaron Boone (coming off knee surgery)
Russell Branyan
Pedro Feliz
Corey Koskie
Abraham O. Nunez
That’s it. That’s the list.
Has anyone been keeping up with Dice-K’s pitch count? Curious to see what his numbers are at the moment.
Move Youk back to 3rd and look for 1B options.
Nobody self-respecting fan in Fenway would ever wave those silly white towels.
Even McCarver can’t spoil this game for me.
97 pitches after that last AB with Helton. Helton took 20 from him his last 2 ABs.
He nibbled too much on that AB.
Warm up the bullpen.
not the mention the gratuitous shots of his dingbat wife.
Time to get this “Dice-K” out of there.
Francona heard you.
Giambi comes off the books in 2008’s offseason, so the Yanks can pretty easily pay most of his contract and move him if they want to. The Yanks will use Betemit or Duncan at 1B next year.
Awww... leave Tina alone!
He should have been out after Helton.
I figured this would be when he fell apart. Helton really wore him out in the 4th inning and last inning he got luck with his defense making a great play. The ump gave him nothing on that last batter but there was no excuse for losing Helton to a walk. He’s not the kind of guy who you can nibble with. 6 run lead you throw strikes. Who cares if he fouls off your strike pitch? Throw him another.
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