Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
NESN has shown select Sox games from the 67 season earlier in the summer. No necklaces, no long hair, even no batting helmets for some players. However, I forgot how slow the games could be then—limited camera angles and very subdued commentary.
Ump said Manny missed the base - ump was dead wrong. Looks like he had a perfect angle on it, too, the umping on this series has not been particularly good, IMHO.
My eyes! My eyes!
It's starting to smell like that. The long layoff has killed CO's momentum. Last year, the Tigers looked invincible until they had that long layoff... they came out flat and never recovered. CO, 5 hitters with 90+ RBI, best defense, gone flat....darn, I was hoping to see a tough series....
plate=base
Sweeps are fun.
I think you are mistaken on the game time issue. For examole, the 1975 WS games were all played in less than 3 hours save for game 6.
Remember... always get chili on your Nachos Bell Grande.
Of course, the guy is wrong on the girl w/dragon tattoo and lap dogs, so why should we believe him about the chili?
Sorry....back to the game.
Minor league baseball games can be loud. How do you like the Lowell Spinners games? We've been to many Pawtucket Red Sox, Portland Sea Dogs and New Britain Rock Cats (in Connecticut... AA farm team of the Minnesota Twins) games, but have yet to attend a Spinners game. The minor league games are a great deal... love the $3 beers!
I still say the loudest baseball experiences ever (for me anyway) has been sitting across from the speakers at Yankee Stadium and at Shea Stadium (both up in the cheap seats). Oh, and Shea Stadium is right near LaGuardia Airport... a plane takes off directly over the stadium about every 15 seconds. Bring your ear plugs...
That and the fact that the Tigers couldn’t field worth a damn and they were not a good .OBP team.
I was talking about the pace of the game, rather than the hours. The 75 series seemed faster paced to me.
That inning was too easy for the Rockies. Sox needed to beat on this kid.
Big inning for Dice-K. If he can escape here with no runs then we can get 6 out of him.
You got freep mail in about 5 seconds.
Barrett the umpire, did not make the call until after the catcher ran over to tag Ramirez. This makes it appear the umpire thought both Ramirez and Torrealba missed. manny the plate and Torrealba the tag. As we know, Manny did touch home with the hand.
lol! good point. I often wonder who makes these ads and how much they cost.
now, cut that out!
Nice job, Papi *as they show Youkilis* Holy cow it’s not THAT cold, is it?
It's down to 44 degrees at Coors Field. Too cold for baseball if you ask me. Baseball season is too long. It should start in May and end in August with the post-season in September. Just have a lot more double-headers.
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