Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***

Weekend fast coming upon us and projected protests appear to be rather tame. Numerous ‘banner’ type events. Nothing really stands out as potentially violent.

Never the less, if a protest is announced in your area, maintain situational awareness as things could spike with little warning.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Yesterday, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump’s “Worldwide and Retaliatory Tariffs” and “Trafficking Tariffs” on goods from Mexico and Canada exceed the authority delegated to him by Congress. The administration immediately appealed that ruling, and today it was stayed by the Federal Circuit pending further litigation. So the tariffs remain in place, for the moment.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/05/goodbye-tariffs.php

OBSERVATION - Another sector of Presidential powers rogue judges are attempting to interfere with. This is another fight the judiciary will lose but will provide a speed bump in trump’s planning and execution.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Unbelievable lack of work by congress, beginning to make biden’s 40% vacation time seem like a hard work schedule.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 24, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.

According to recent reports from Microsoft and the Dutch government, a new Russian state-backed hacking group called Void Blizzard or Laundry Bear is targeting NATO member critical infrastructure and industry. The reports said Void Blizzard has successfully managed to fly below the radar due to “living-off-the-land” attack methods.

Illegal Immigration –

The Department of Homeland Security is putting more than 500 “sanctuary jurisdictions” across the country on notice that the Trump administration views them as obstructing immigration enforcement as it attempts to increase pressure on communities it believes are standing in the way of the president’s mass deportations agenda.

The department on Thursday published a list of the jurisdictions and said each one will receive formal notification that the government has deemed them noncompliant and if they’re believed to be in violation of any federal criminal statutes. The list was published on the department’s website.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/dhs-immigration-donald-trump/2025/05/29/id/1212876/

OBSERVATION - A shot across the bow of the sanctuary movement. I wouldn’t want to cross DHS Secretary Kristi Noem at this stage.

China -

A new report claims that China has been showcasing its military might over the past month by deploying a significant number of naval and coast guard ships in the Pacific region, including aircraft carriers near Taiwan and Japan.

Reuters cited three regional security officials and regional military activity documents that indicate China deployed larger fleets of navy, coast guard, and other ships near Taiwan, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the southern Japanese islands in recent weeks than the country typically deploys.

According to Reuters, regional military activity documents show that China deployed almost 60 ships on May 21 and over 70 ships on May 27. The outlet noted that roughly 75% of the ships deployed by China were naval ships, including destroyers, coast guard vessels, and guided-missile ships.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2025/05/chinese-naval-activity-increases-in-the-pacific-report/#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - You build a big navy for a purpose - as a stick to back up your foreign policy goals. China has very little experience maneuvering a large naval force in combat. Thus additional deployments and exercises become even more necessary to make up that strategic short coming. China’s aggressiveness in claiming islands belonging by international treaty to other nations - especially the Philippines - is going to lead to a conflict of some sort in the near future.

***
China has warned the US over Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile shield plan, with Defense Ministry spokesman Zhang Xiaogang saying it could spark a space arms race and breach the Outer Space Treaty.

OBSERVATION - China over the course of the past year, has launched some very suspicious space missions that could be interpreted as developing an interceptor capability to hit US strategic recon satellites as well as Starlink systems. But best to accuse the other in order to keep your own space plans obscured.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s mostly clear with scattered thunderstorms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 26 Shahed-type drones, 30 more were intercepted by electronic warfare means. In total Russia launched 90 Shahed-type drones and 2 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles

Russian losses per 30/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1140 men
+1 tank
+2 AFVs
+35 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Kindrashivka of Kharkiv region of Ukraine

(ISW) Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kurakhove and Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Kupyansk, Borova, Lyman, and Pokrovsk.

Summary —

Relative calm in the drone wars arena.

On the ground, moderate action with gains and losses experienced by both sides. Observers noting increased fighting in the Sumy sector, could represent reconnaissance in preparation for the suspected renewed offensive in that sector.

Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia continue to be a joke.

Europe / NATO General –

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said this week that NATO’s target for defense spending will likely be raised from 2% to 5% of a country’s GDP at next month’s summit. That plan could include spending 3.5% of GDP on “hard military spending” and 1.5% on infrastructure, cyber, and “other things.” Only 22 of the 32 members have reached the current 2% spending target.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas is rejecting the plan they reportedly accepted days ago.

- Ground activity in Gaza increases

- IAF continues preps to strike Iran.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Status of IDF operations -

•Khan Yunis (South Gaza): IDF forces have advanced past the European Hospital, deepening operations in the western part of the city.

•Al-Khuza’a (Southeast Gaza, near Khan Yunis): Clearing operations continue in this town near the border with Israel.

•Kissufim Axis (Central Gaza border area): The IDF is pushing south along this strategic route connecting Israeli territory to central Gaza.

•Beit Hanoun (Northeast Gaza): The city is now fully surrounded by Israeli forces.

•Qizan an-Najjar (South of Khan Yunis): Clearing operations are ongoing in this southern area near the Egyptian border.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1928367281714704817?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
Gazans report that Hamas operatives raided the American Field Hospital in Zawaida in central Gaza early this morning, and stole all the hospital’s contents, including the power generators

***
The IDF has issued evacuation order for very large areas in the northern Gaza Strip

***
Hamas official tells BBC: We reject the new Witkoff proposal. It does not meet our key demands, including an end to the war. The official added that Hamas will respond to the proposal “at the appropriate time.”

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Last night, Israeli warplanes struck a Hezbollah site in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley after detecting efforts to rebuild previously targeted infrastructure. The IDF says it will continue acting against threats and Hezbollah entrenchment.

IAF also hit targets in S Lebanon, including an ammo depot with large secondaries.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Israel’s army says it intercepted a missile launched from Yemen
Houthis military spokesman: We carried out a military operation targeting Lod Airport in the Jaffa area with a ballistic missile.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Countries like France continue to rebuke Israel over the ‘humanitarian’ aid claims, while being totally silent on the Hamas warehouses filled with multiple tons of wheat / flour that are being hoarded.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

True to form, Hamas is now rejecting the hostage / ceasefire plan they once said they agreed to. Typical MO for their negotiation style.

Possibly in response, Israel seems to have stepped up operations in Gaza to 1) gain as much as possible before any kind of ceasefire and 2) exert even more pressure on Hamas.

As of the time I write this, Hamas is a big NO on the hostage plan. This is good for Israel in it allows for justified continued operations in Gaza.

Lebanon felt IAF fury as Hezbollah targets were hit. Seems Hezbollah is trying to fly under the radar and reestablish storage facilities and bases taken out by Israel by not shooting at Israel. The eyes of Israel are everywhere in Lebanon and they probably let Hezbollah get a lot invested in these sites before blowing them up.

Syria is calm

Houthis launched another rocket at Israel, easily shot down.

Iran situation continues to heat up - see below

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

Senior Israeli defense officials say a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites is “possible and necessary,” per Ynet. Israel has shared its “red lines” with the US, insisting on full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program and enrichment sites.

OBSERVATION - US negotiation efforts may have finally reached the wall for even an interim agreement. Israeli firmly pushing back on the very 0bamaesque proposal that was put forth by Witkoff may have take hold. Possible round of talks this weekend may give clues to what the future may bring.
REMINDER - Israel destroyed Iraq’s and Syria’s nuclear ambitions contrary to US desires. They may well do the same with Trump, perhaps the reiterating the ‘red lines’ Israel has.

Trump has to fish or cut bait, and make that decision soon or events in the region outside his control will take over.

Syria -

ISIS has claimed its first direct attack on the Syrian army since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

OBSERVATION - Interesting to see the response of the new Syrian president - a former ISIS leader - to these attacks.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***

Weekend is upon us and projected protests appear to be rather tame. Numerous ‘banner’ type events. Nothing really stands out as potentially violent.

Never the less, if a protest is announced in your area, maintain situational awareness as things could spike with little warning.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Prices barely climbed in April, pulling the annual rate of inflation down toward the Federal Reserve’s two percent target, even while personal income climbed at a rapid rate.

The personal consumption price index climbed 0.1 percent in April, the second month in a row in which consumers got relief from inflation that had plagued the economy throughout the Biden administration. In March, the index showed prices were flat.

Compared with a year ago, prices are up just 2.1 percent. That just one-tenth above the two percent rate of inflation the Fed says it targets. In March, prices were up 2.3 percent from a year earlier.

Core prices, a measure that excludes food and energy, also rose 0.1 percent. Over the past year, core prices are up 2.5 percent, the smallest year-over-year increase since March of 2021.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2025/05/30/core-inflation-falls-to-lowest-rate-in-four-years/

OBSERVATION - The Fed is going to find it difficult to defend not lowering rates with these inflation numbers. If it does, it will go against its stated policy of a few years ago when it started ramping the prime to highest levels seen in decades.

Also, refusal will be seen as deliberate actions to sabotage the economy under Trump and will likely generated severe backlash.

***
President Donald Trump has announced the US will double its current tariff rate on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, starting on Wednesday.
Speaking at a rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on Friday, Trump said the move would help boost the local steel industry and national supply, while reducing reliance on China.

Trump also said that $14bn would be invested in the area’s steel production through a partnership between US Steel and Japan’s Nippon Steel, though he later told reporters he had yet to see or approve the final deal.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy0k5x21y35o

***
The Washington, D.C.-based Federal Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily paused a ruling from the U.S. Court of International Trade that blocked the Trump administration’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The court did not specify how long the temporary pause will last.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats are trying to rebrand. They are so desperate that donors are throwing in tens of millions of dollars to change the party’s image, as reported in The New York Times this week.

https://hotair.com/headlines/2025/05/30/dems-keep-trying-to-rebuild-their-death-star-n3803272

OBSERVATION - So far, this “rebranding” effort appears to be doubling down on the policies and agenda soundly defeated in 2024. Now they have an overweight, lesbian being the point ‘person’ to entice college frat boys to the democrat party.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump’s approval rating -
According to Rasmussen, the final report for May has Trump’s approval rating at 53 percent, five points higher than the final report for April. In the end, he did spend every day in May at or above level.

Illegal Immigration –

The Supreme Court on Friday stayed a lower court order that blocked the Trump administration from deporting roughly 500,000 migrants from Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. The decision is a near-term victory for President Donald Trump as he moves to crack down on border security and immigration priorities in his second term.

The order stays, for now, a lower court ruling that halted Trump’s plans to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) protections for some migrants living in the U.S., which allows individuals to live and work in the U.S. legally if they cannot work safely in their home country due to a disaster, armed conflict or other “extraordinary and temporary conditions.”

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/supreme-court-hands-trump-win-revoking-parole-500k-foreign-nationals

OBSERVATION - Judicial activism is slowly being reigned in. Justice Sonia Sotomayor and Jackson opposed the decision - failing to understand the meaning of “temporary”.

China -

During a May 30 press conference in the Oval Office, Trump said the Chinese regime violated “a big part” of the agreement, and signaled he would continue negotiations with Xi.

U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer said on CNBC on May 30 that the United States has been monitoring China’s compliance with the latest agreement and that it’s “very concerned with it.”

“The United States did exactly what it was supposed to do, and the Chinese are slow rolling their compliance, which is completely unacceptable,” Greer said. “Time and time again, you know, we see the Chinese come down and not comply with their agreements, slow roll compliance, not open their economy like they should.”

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-says-china-totally-violated-tariff-agreement-5865501?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

***
President Trump announced late on Friday that his administration will double tariffs on steel imports from 25% to 50%, saying the move would help protect American steelworkers during a visit to a United States Steel Corp. plant in Pittsburgh on Friday focused on boosting the US steel industry.

https://thelibertydaily.com/trump-is-doubling-u-s-steel-tariffs-50/

OBSERVATION - The steel workers present reportedly were enthusiastic about the news.

***
The court battles over tariffs got all the attention this week but that wasn’t the only sign the Trump administration is still engaged in a trade war with China. On Wednesday the administration suspended the sale of jet engines and some high tech chips and software as well. The target of these new restrictions seems to be China’s first passenger jet, the C919.

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/05/30/trump-suspended-sales-of-jet-engines-to-china-n3803317

North/South Korea –

South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported yesterday that Russia has provided North Korea with modern air defense systems, electronic warfare systems, missile development information, and 1 million barrels of fuel. All of these are in violation of the UN sanctions program on North Korea.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russia continues to play games regarding ANY peace / ceasefire talks with Ukraine.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s mostly clear with scattered thunderstorms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia has launched offensive actions in the Zaporizhzhia direction — Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi.

“Russian activity has intensified. Main efforts are focused on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka axes, as well as border areas of Sumy region,” he said.

***
Ukraine’s air defense neutralized 69 Shahed drones and 3 Kh-59/69 guided missiles overnight on May 31.
Russia launched 114 air attack assets, including 107 Shaheds, missiles, and UAVs from multiple directions.
8 drone strikes in Kharkiv: two in Shevchenkivskyi district, six in Kyivskyi district,

Russian losses per 31/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1250 men
+2 tanks
+5 AFVs
+54 artillery
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novopil village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Sumy -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Vodolahy village of Sumy region of Ukraine

Partisan Resistance ——

In occupied Melitopol district, Ukrainian partisans reportedly successfully blew up a train carrying freight and fuel tankers, according to preliminary reports. The train was headed toward occupied Crimea.

Summary —

Ground fighting numbers have grown, suggesting that the impression of new offensive is building. However, I’m not seeing fighting levels in the Zaporizhzhia region at a level to justify saying there is a new offensive effort centered there. On going fighting much further to the east is not a threat to Zaporizhzhia. Monitoring

Not reporting much on the soap opera that are the Russia / Ukraine ceasefire / peace talks. It is apparent that Russia thinks they are a joke and are using multiple pronouncements as a means to embarrass Ukraine and maintaining the initiative in the information / propaganda realm.

Poland –

Poland is building fortifications along its borders with Kaliningrad and Belarus — digging trenches and installing anti-tank obstacles. This is part of East Shield, a national defense initiative launched by the Polish government to fortify its eastern borders.

Europe / NATO General –

The EU views the Sino-Russian alliance as the world’s “biggest challenge.” EU leaders, including Kaja Kallas and Emmanuel Macron, stressed the need to defend the rules-based order amid growing China-Russia cooperation. Kallas warned that 80% of dual-use goods aiding Russia’s war in Ukraine come from China

Pakistan / India – Threat Level warnings have been removed as conditions appear to have returned to pre-combat and pre terror incident levels. May 25, 2025

(FO) India’s Ministry of External Affairs publicly demanded Pakistan vacate its section of Kashmir in order to progress peace talks. At the same time, the Indian Defense Minister promised while aboard India’s aircraft carrier Vikrant that “Operation Sindoor is not over yet” and that it is only paused.

OBSERVATION - Back to a level of sounding ‘tough’ for domestic consumption.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- IDF continues to accelerate operations in Gaza, with heavy airstrikes

- Hamas still rejecting the current Witkoff offer.

- IAF air striikes in Syria

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel decided to block a visit by the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and Turkey to the Palestinian Authority which was planned for Sunday, Israeli official says

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas still rejecting the current Witkoff offer.

Palestinian factions in Gaza urged Hamas to agree to Witkoff’s proposal for a Gaza ceasefire, according to Saudi Al-Arabiya. While the factions do not consider the proposal ideal, they believe it will stop the war and the threat of famine and displacement.

OBSERVATION - Hamas time and again has expressed zero concern for the people. They are willing to sacrifice them for their cause.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

More targeted drone strikes on Hezbollah leadership

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian Radio reported Israeli strikes against a military site in the Jabala area, a post in the Tartus area, and military sites in Latakia.

IDF: The IDF struck weapon storage facilities containing coastal missiles that posed a threat to international and Israeli maritime freedom of navigation, in the Lattakia area of Syria.
In addition, components of surface-to-air missiles were struck in the area of Lattakia.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel continues to advance and control more areas of Gaza, under support of large air strikes. No movement by Hamas towards current ceasefire /hostage plan, and likelihood of one continues to decrease daily. At this stage it appears that Hamas will have to offer some serious concessions to its demands before Israel bites. Hamas’ rejection of the Witkoff rewrite, after claiming to agree to it, has sucked a lot of oxygen out of the room with Hamas’ foreign supporters.

Though I noted yesterday that things were “calm” in Syria, I guess I should caveat things as changeable fast. The decades of war and military build up by Syria and Hezbollah resulted in ammo dumps all over the region to promote survivalabilty. Now as Israel finds one, they can easily take it out.

Iran remains a sensitive subject and one that has Israel ready to take matters into their own hands. See Iran below.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

(FO) Several high level Iranian officials made public statements that a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal is at an impasse due to differences on whether Iran can retain its enrichment programs.

***
Saudi Arabia’s defense minister warned top Iranian officials to take President Trump’s offer for nuclear talks seriously, or face the risk of an Israeli military strike - Reuters

OBSERVATIONS - Iranian refusal on enrichment may be the final straw on negotiations. Whether or not there is another meeting this weekend is unclear (my last read) any further progress requires abandonment and dismantling under close supervision.

Iran is making the most of their delaying tactics to relocate key elements of their nuclear program to other areas and reinforce structures housing them. There are over a dozen critical locations and a lot of land available to hid things in.

Also, time gained by delays has increased Russian and Chinese support for Iran. Perhaps in part due to the appearance of weakness by Trump failing to hold the line on US demands. How reliable this growing alliance will be should bombs start dropping is uncertain at the moment.

Hoping for clear skies tonight to watch the aurora, projected to be directly overhead. This won’t be as big as the famous May 2024 storm, but still forecast to be a doozy. Currently things are at a KP = 8 level

HF bands are currently trashed out as a result.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***

ICE deployed multiple flashbangs against a mob of San Diego pro-illegals trying to interfere with their deportation operation at an Italian pizza joint.

OBSERVATION - A clear escalation by the anti-deportation crowd in a more spontaneous manner.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

After 2 weeks, the B-52 presence on Guam has ended and they have returned to Barksdale AFB, LA.

TRUMP Watch –

RUMINT - President Trump has contracted Silicon Valley tech firm Palantir to create a master database on every American citizen.
Peter Thiel, who founded the company alongside Alex Karp, mentored Trump’s VP, JD Vance.

The claim that Trump contracted Palantir for a “master database on every American” lacks official confirmation, though data-sharing efforts exist. Misleading elements include the unverified “master database” term, implying a centralized system not explicitly supported by evidence.

OBSERVATION - This nearly qualifies for the Globalism / Great Reset category - if proven true. A ‘data-sharing’ between govt alphabet agencies would / could naturally lead to such a large data base on americans. Such a data base could form the basis for bad things in the future.

Illegal Immigration –

ICE hit many businesses over the past few days, rounding up hundreds of illegals and hammering business owners for hiring illegals in violation of the law.

ICE is also pushing for a goal of 3000 deportations per day.

China -

The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz has returned to the contested South China Sea, where it is conducting flight operations under the command of the Japan-based U.S. Seventh Fleet.

China continues to claim sovereignty over the vast majority of the South China Sea through its so-called “nine-dash line,” despite overlapping claims from several Southeast Asian countries and a 2016 international tribunal ruling that found Beijing’s claims to have no legal basis. Chinese military construction on disputed islands, including runways and radar systems, has raised concerns among neighbouring nations and the international community.

Reacting to the Nimitz’s latest deployment, the People’s Liberation Army Southern Theater Command condemned the U.S. Navy’s actions, stating that the U.S. had “deliberately disrupted the situation in the South China Sea” and had “seriously violated China’s sovereignty and security … undermined regional peace and stability, and … violated international law and basic norms governing international relations.”

The United States has pushed back strongly against China’s narrative, asserting that “unlawful and sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea pose a serious threat to the freedom of the seas.” In a broader policy statement, the U.S. government affirmed its position that “freedoms of navigation and overflight, free trade and unimpeded commerce, and freedom of economic opportunity for South China Sea littoral nations” are essential to regional and global stability.

“As long as some countries continue to claim and assert limits on rights that exceed their authority under international law, the United States will continue to defend the rights and freedoms of the sea guaranteed to all,” the U.S. government added, reiterating that no nation should be “intimidated or coerced into giving up their rights and freedoms.”

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/american-carrier-sails-south-china-sea-despite-china-warning/

OBSERVATION - US balancing the need to have force projection in this area vs support to CENTCOM for an Iranian operation. Following the deployment of the Washington for developments.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 90s mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 210 Shahed-type drones of 472, 172 more were intercepted by electronic warfare means, 3 of 4 Iskander-K/Kh-101 cruise missiles. Russian army had also launched 3 ballistic Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles overnight
At least 12 servicemen killed, 60 wounded as result of missile strike at training center of Ukrainian Land Forces

There are incoming reports of a fire at Belaya Air Base in Russia’s Irkutsk region. This base also hosts strategic bombers — used in missile strikes against Ukraine.

Explosions were also reported at Dyagilevo airfield

Videos from the FPV drones show strikes on Tu-95MS bombers.

OF NOTE - A buildup of Russian strategic aviation had been detected at the Olenya airfield, including as many as 40 Tu-22M3 bombers and 11 Tu-95MS aircraft, Defense Express reports.
Satellite images published on X by the aviation-focused account AviVector indicate that as of May 26, 2025, the following aircraft were stationed at Olenya airfield:
According to analysts, the presence of 40 Tu-22M3 bombers at Olenya on May 26 sharply contrasts with mid-May satellite data showing that Russia had concentrated 42 such aircraft at the Belaya airbase in Siberia.
“And all this despite the fact that Russia’s Aerospace Forces have a total of only up to 60 Tu-22M3 bombers,” Defense Express emphasized.

Dozens of aircraft were reportedly damaged or destroyed. Tu-22M3, Tu-95MS, and possible A-50.

Russian security services have reportedly detained a driver of a truck that brought dozens of drones to Olenegorsk..

***
Unknown individuals detonated a bridge over the Moscow-Klimovo railway, causing it to collapse onto a passing train, derailing it and damaging several cars.

A Russian military freight train was blown up near Melitopol, heading toward Crimea, — Ukraine’s military intelligence confirmed.

The explosion derailed fuel tankers and cargo wagons near Yakymivka overnight. Following the blast, Russian forces launched a manhunt, deploying Rosgvardia patrols and tightening checkpoint controls.

A Russian cargo train suffered a major derailment this morning after a bridge collapsed in Kursk Oblast. This marks the third major incident on the Russian rail network in 36 hours.

***
Russian losses per 01/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1230 men
+5 tanks
+4 AFVs
+52 artillery
+1 MLRS

Sumy -

Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Oleksiivka village of Sumy region of Ukraine

Summary —

Explosive activity overnight.

First notice of critical ground action. If the claim of Russia seizing Oleksiivka village of Sumy region is true, then there has been a significant penetration in that sector. Available reporting has indicated that sector to rather limited in the fighting of late, which could be reflected in OPSEC if such a penetration was going on. Monitoring.

Two other big events. First the coordinated attack on rail lines supporting Russian military operations to the Ukraine region. Three separate hits, which will take weeks for Russia to repair. Russia relies very heavily upon rail to support military operations primarily since it doesn’t have the trucking to handle the material. With the claims of a Russian summer offensive, taking these lines out will snarl Russian logistics.

Second is the apparent coordinated strike on three Russian airbases housing strategic bombers. NOTE - I am slightly confused by the names from several reports as spelling differences / references are common in slavic languages. Major strike apparently at Olenya airfield, where the number of bombers were recently noted as being increased in what some considered a staging for a much larger Russian air attack. This attack apparently was made by FPVs and a control team smuggled into Russia. Just from the FPV videos alone, a considerable number of Tu-22M3 bombers, the workhorse of Russian strategic cruise missile attacks on Ukraine, were directly destroyed and secondary damage to adjacent aircraft, packed in large numbers on the tarmac, could send the count higher.

The rail and air attacks displayed a degree of boldness not seen of late - requiring penetration of teams into Russia and controlled territories. Will have to see if this was a once and done operation or will there be other similar attacks in the future.

Europe / NATO General –

Middle eastern migrants in Paris use the soccer win as an excuse to riot, a car has crashed into a group of pedestrians.

Gotta love that cultural enrichment eh?

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- IAEA reports Iran closing in on enough enriched uranium to produce 9 bombs

- Hamas demands rejected by Witcoff / US as well as Israel.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu’s office: IAEA report shows Iran’s intention to complete nuclear weapons program

***
US envoy Steve Witkoff on Saturday rejected Hamas’ response to the newest ceasefire proposal, slamming it as “totally unacceptable” and stressing that it “only takes us backward.”

A senior official familiar with the details of the negotiations revealed that a thorough analysis of Hamas’ response shows that the terror group’s proposal is far from aligning with Israel’s offer.

Among Hamas’ demands: a ceasefire lasting up to seven years, a full IDF withdrawal from all areas captured since March, cancellation of the new humanitarian aid distribution model led by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, and a return to the previous distribution system. “This isn’t a response — it’s a slammed door,” the official stated.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/409271

***
Prime Minister Netanyahu: “While Israel has agreed to the updated Witkoff outline for the release of our hostages, Hamas continues to adhere to its refusal. As Witkoff said, Hamas’ response is unacceptable and sets the situation back. Israel will continue its action for the return of our hostages and the defeat of Hamas.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Following Hamas firing three rockets IDF warns residents -
Israeli army: To all residents of Khan Yunis, Bani Suheila, and Abasan, the terrorist organizations continue to use your surroundings to launch rockets towards Israel. The Israeli army will aggressively attack any area used as a launching pad for terrorist activity. This area has been warned and warned several times in the past and has been designated a dangerous combat zone.

***
A fatma was issued against any Gazans that speak out against Hamas or if they take back Aid that was stolen by Hamas, but meant for Gazans in the first place.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

There appears to be no ceasefire/hostage release. Hamas recent efforts to derail Israel’s operation Gideons Chariots have fallen apart and IDF is pressing the effort on the ground. What is evident from Hamas demands is that the US/Israel food relief is causing considerable problems for Hamas’ control of the citizen population. Simple principle - he who controls the food, controls the people, and Hamas is losing that control.

Bigger news regarding Iran and its sprint to reach the bomb before being bombed. See below.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

Iran is less than two weeks out from being able to process nuclear weapons-grade material, according to the Wall Street Journal. This revelation comes at the same time talks between the U.S. and Iran over the Iranian nuclear program are paused.

It could take several months to construct a complete nuclear weapon, but Iran is just days out from being able to process enough enriched uranium into high-level fissile material to make one work.

The Journal said the startling information was included in a confidential International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report that went to member states. The report indicated Iran’s cache of enriched uranium has increased by about 50% since its last report in February.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/iran-nuclear-weapons/2025/05/31/id/1213068/

MORE RELATED
The UN’s nuclear watchdog has completed an investigation into Iranian activities, mainly covert, and has delivered a damning report about the regime in Tehran. Not only does the IAEA confirm that Iran has consistently cheated in its agreements on nuclear energy, they are pushing hard for more enrichment to successfully build several nuclear weapons:

Iran carried out secret nuclear activities with material not declared to the U.N. nuclear watchdog at three locations that have long been under investigation, the watchdog said in a wide-ranging, confidential report to member states seen by Reuters.

The findings in the “comprehensive” International Atomic Energy Agency report requested by the agency’s 35-nation Board of Governors in November pave the way for a push by the United States, Britain, France and Germany for the board to declare Iran in violation of its non-proliferation obligations.

A separate IAEA report sent to member states on Saturday said Iran’s stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% of weapons grade, had grown by roughly half to 408.6 kg. That is enough, if enriched further, for nine nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.

Approximately 42 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium is theoretically enough to produce one atomic bomb, if enriched further to 90%, according to the watchdog.

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2025/05/31/iaea-iran-hid-nuclear-sites-pushing-toward-nuclear-weapons-n3803328

The IAEA report confirms Iran carried out secret nuclear weapons work using undeclared material at three covert sites — Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, and Turquzabad.

***
Iran has issued a NOTAM for June 1–2, 2025, warning of missile and drone activity in southeastern Iran near the Gulf of Oman. The alert includes two daily time slots and shuts down several air routes during those periods.

OVERALL OBSERVATION - Iranian arrogance in the face of Trump words has shot to the forefront overnight. The IAEA report should be a slap in the face of US negotiators (pay attention Witkoff) of Iran’s dishonesty at the bargaining table and their willing violation of those agreements they currently are under. There is no requirement under a civilian nuclear program (i e power plants) for uranium to be enriched to 60%. The only purpose for that is as a step towards nuclear weapons grade uranium.

My current operating assumption is that Iran has received enough technical support from Russia and N Korea to by pass a lot of the testing normally required for construction of a bomb. Many of these other tests, such as testing the detonation devices, may have already occurred, since the large territory of Iran contains many locations where large conventional explosions could be conducted without detection.

In essence, Iran’s proud declarations bound up in the IAEA report have caused them to light the fuse for a soon military strike on its operations. The substantial increase in 60% enriched uranium (50%) is enough of a red line for Israel to justify an attack - NOW.

Trump reportedly has hopes of an agreement. I hope these developments wake him up to the reality of the situation. Iran is stalling in an effort to gain the bomb. It is currently at its weakest state in decades and likely sees the bomb as shifting its power projection to the world.

A second item is the progression of Iran’s ballistic missile program to deliver these bombs. Not only a threat to Israel, but Europe and US interests as well.

What chaos can we expect this week?

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.

An attack yesterday struck a pro-Israel protest in Boulder, Colorado calling for the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The group was hit by several Molotov cocktails, burning / injuring attendees thrown by the attacker.

The attacker was arrested and identified by law enforcement as Mohamad Soliman. Soliman allegedly disguised himself as a landscaper before throwing Molotov cocktails at the group. The Boulder terror suspect has been identified as an illegal immigrant, Mohamed Sabry Soliman. Originally from Egypt, Soliman came to the US in 2022 during the Biden administration, overstayed his temporary visa, and his work authorization had expired. Some have indicated that he may have been indoctrinated or associated with Muslim Brotherhood from his time in Egypt. He shouted anti-Israeli slogans and ‘free Palestine” during his attack.

Boulder Police stating that they are not yet labeling this a terrorist attack, as Soliman’s motives are still under investigation by themselves and the FBI.

Statements by both FBI Director Kash Patel and FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino regarding today’s potential terrorist attack targeting supporters of Israel in Boulder, Colorado.

OBSERVATION - MSM was quick to down play the terror aspect, but if it walks like a duck, swims like a duck, etc. . . . .

Apparently a lone wolf attack with the available data, though there appears to be some preparatory work, one just doesn’t have Molotov cocktails lying around. He must have been looking for an opportunity to attack.

Boulder, Colorado is designated as a sanctuary city, meaning it limits its cooperation with federal immigration enforcement. This status was formalized by the City Council to reassure immigrant communities. Doubtful that the city council will change its decree following this attack.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) returned to her homeport at Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia today, with her crew being welcomed by hundreds of friends and family, following a near nine-month deployment to the U.S. 5th and 6th Fleet Areas-of-Responsibility, during which they conducting extensive combat operations against the Iranian-backed Houthis in the Red Sea.

POLITICAL FRONT –

In many ways quiet because congress hasn’t been in session but for a few days.

Illegal Immigration –

Nadler office was raided by Fed Protection Service officers yesterday as part of a search where it was reported that anti deportation protestors were being hidden in his offices. One aid was detained for trying to obstruct the search.

They claimed they received reports that protesters were hiding inside the congressional office.

‘Based on earlier incidents in a nearby facility, FPS officers were concerned about the safety of the federal employees in the office and went to the location to ensure the safety and wellbeing of those present,’ Homeland Security officials told the New York Post. Witnesses claimed that leftist activists monitoring ICE activities fled into Nadler’s offices when confronted.

Nadler whined: “If this can happen in a Member of Congress’s office, it can happen to anyone — and it is happening,”

OBSERVATION - As strong message sent to leftist congress critters. Do NOT assist and shelter protestors of any flavor.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russia scrambling to do damage control after yesterday’s drone attacks

Russia has developed a new paranoia: trucks. Long queues are forming as authorities now inspect cargo vehicles thoroughly.

According to Russian sources, drivers of trucks allegedly used to launch Ukrainian drones toward military airfields have been interrogated. One claimed his truck carried prefab houses from Chelyabinsk to Murmansk. En route, unknown callers instructed him where and when to stop—at one such stop, drones reportedly launched.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

In the wake of Ukraine’s drone attack, rumors are flying that Russia is reportedly considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons in response to Ukraine’s drone strikes. Fake alerts are all over the place. One alert claimed nuclear ‘go’ messages off the Russian HF transmitters - except that yesterday’s solar storm shut down the HF spectrum.

Other rumors suggest putin is going to use the underdevelopment Oreshnik medium range MRV missile(s) in a retaliatory strike.

There is no doubt that Russia is considering a massive, retaliatory strike but tactical nukes are still a stretch.

RUMINT-

Russian reportedly mustering latest generation fighter bombers in an attempt to penetrate Ukraine airspace as part of a retaliatory strike.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 90s mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

First the basics

Ukrainian Air Force: 52 air targets neutralized overnight on June 2. In total, Russia launched 84 aerial threats including 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and one Iskander-K cruise missile.

Russian losses per 02/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1140 men
+2 tanks
+7 AFVs
+48 artillery
+2 AD systems

Additional Ukraine drone attack reports:

- Ukrainian UAVs reported in Borisoglebsk, which hosts Borisoglebsk air base, home to Russia fighter jets.
- According to Russian channels, Ukrainian naval drones have been spotted in the Black Sea heading for occupied Crimea.
- Reports of 150 long range drones are slicing through Russian airspace, headed straight for military targets in Moscow. Eight explosions are recorded in the Lipetsk region.
- Ukrainian strike hit a Russian ballistic missile production facility.

Russian media reporting attack at the industrial zone of Sorokyne town at the occupied part of Luhansk region of Ukraine with Storm Shadow cruise missiles

***
Post Operation Review - “Operation Spiderweb”

More details concerning the bold and apparently very successful strike by Ukraine using FPV drones against Russian strategic bombers at 4 airbases, Belaya, Dyagilevo, Olenya and Ivanovo. A fifth base attack may have failed due to the transport container explosion/ fire.

The attack was reportedly 18 months in the making.

Apparent Russian intel and readiness failures exploited:

- Russians were expecting “large drones” attack in the night, not “small drones” attack in the middle of the day

- Planes were on the ground with full tanks, prepared to take off in the case of alert, and drones hit planes in the tanks

- No alert, as an attack was sudden, mobile communications were not turned off

Ukraine FPV pilots exploited the Russian Cellular network to control the drones.

Ukraine estimates that it destroyed or at least least damaged 34% of long-range cruise missile carriers (over 30 airframes) used by the Russian Air Force for missile strikes against cities in Ukraine. Total estimated cost of over $7 billion (US). OSINT analysts reviewing commercial satellite imagery have confirmed from just two airbases -

Olenya Air Base:
— 2 Tu-95MS destroyed.
— 2 Tu-95MS damaged.
— 1 An-12 destroyed.

Belaya Air Base:
— 3 Tu-95MS damaged.
— 2 Tu-22M3 damaged

These verified losses need to be tempered against damage that can be observed from commercial satellite imagery as well as videos posted to social media. Lesser damage less likely to be seen. Ukraine claims may be more accurate as the videos of the FPVs were recorded and drones flown into aircraft.

The loss of Tu-95s is particularly critical since X-101 cruise missiles are launched by Tu-95s. Russia’s 5 largest attacks against Ukraine consisted of 93 to 122 missiles launched a day at Ukraine, most from Tu-95s.

***
BTW - Russian and Ukraine are supposed to be meeting today on peace talks.

Summary —

Ukraine’s drone strike continues to suck the wind out of reports from the front. A stroke of genius that would make the Mossad green with envy. As I noted above, hard for OSINT to quantify minor damage to airframes - and to what extent it makes them deadlined for flight operations. The bombers are no longer being made and spare parts increasingly hard to come by. The estimates of 30% include total airframes - and this total includes ‘hangar queens’, canalized for spare parts. The planes hit were those on the ready line, fully operational. Now Russia is stuck with a problem of getting replacements from the unflyable category to flight status. The overall scope of damage is likely very high.

Ukraine also seems to have managed to hit some other key sites in other attacks.

I expect Russia to launch retaliatory attacks within the next few days. However, air launched cruise missiles may be severely limited depending on surviving airframes and their flight readiness. Reports of Ukraine sea drones in the Black Sea may well discourage forays by Russian missile launchers. Recently the Black Sea fleet was emboldened in supporting Russian missile assaults, catching Ukraine unready. Not likely to happen twice.

Deployment of the Oreshnik MRV system is being rumored once again. However, IIRC it is in development and Russian has had problems with recent tests. Its only deployment against Ukraine raised a lot of questions regarding its warheads and effectiveness.

So retaliatory attacks will likely be braced by hundreds of Shahed drones and short range ballistic missiles. Air and sea launched cruise missiles likely to be limited.

Nuclear strikes are still well within the RUMINT level of evaluation. Reports of Russia moves in that direction are strongly unconfirmed.

On the ground, still little on the reported push by Russia into the Sumy oblast noted yesterday. Moderately heavy fighting generally reported.

Poland –

Conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki is the newly elected President of the Republic of Poland. Karol Nawrocki is Roman Catholic who has promoted a return to traditional Polish culture and values.

OBSERVATION - Seen as a pro-Trump individual. Big push back against the more recent attempts of leftists in Poland to succumb to the EU and its mandates.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas pleas for more ceasefire discussions.

- Gaza operations continue to intensify.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday condemned the attack on pro-Israel demonstrators in Colorado, which he said was a result of “blood libels against the Jewish state and people.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas says it is ready to start immediately indirect negotiations with Israel in order to clarify and solve remaining differences around the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal proposal.

Hamas released an official statement: We welcome the continued efforts of Qatar and Egypt to bring an end to Israel’s war against our people in the Gaza Strip. We are ready to immediately begin a round of indirect negotiations to reach an agreement on the points of dispute.

OBSERVATION - Of course. . . .

***
IDF Chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, after a high-level assessment today in southern Gaza alongside top commanders, including Southern Command Chief Maj. Gen. Yaniv Asor, Air Force Chief Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, and COGAT head Maj. Gen. Ghassan Alian—has ordered a significant expansion of the ground offensive against Hamas.

***
Civilian reports from Israel on social media stating that the explosions being heard coming from Gaza are totally unlike any heard since the start of the war.

***
Israeli army drone footage shows gunmen in Gaza shooting at civilians trying to collect humanitarian aid.

After Hamas claims dozens of civilians heading to a GHF aid site were killed by IDF forces today, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation released security footage of the site and stated: “All aid was distributed today without incident. No injuries or fatalities. We have heard that these fake reports have been actively fomented by Hamas. They are untrue and fabricated.”

The GHF released security footage from the distribution site in question during the precise minutes that the “massacre” allegedly took place. NOTHING HAPPENED.

***
Reports out of Gaza suggest that Hamas is losing control of the population with their “police” taking more and more lethal actions towards disobedient Gazans. Key area is Hamas attempt to deny Gazans access to food distribution by GHF. Cooperation from tribal heads is also reported to be crumbling.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

More Hezbollah agents hit by drone launched missiles.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas blew its chance at a ceasefire by overreaching with its demands, and faced with IDF systematically destroying them and much of Gaza is scrambling to regain an edge in the information / propaganda world for leverage against Israel. Recent documented actions by Hamas attacking Gazans attempting to reach GHF distribution centers as well as ‘discovery’ of Hamas warehouses loaded with food has sucked a lot of the ‘famine’ furious out of international press.

Israel has set a goal to achieve control of the Gaza strip in two months and by all accounts is well on its way to do so.

Issues with Lebanon and Syria are currently stable, but can change abruptly depending on if new ammo storage sites deemed a threat to Israel are discovered and destroyed by IAF.

Iran is still front burner - see below

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

Word on weekend’s negotiations is pretty scarce. Revelations of Iran’s covert push for a nuclear weapon and their willingness to do so contrary to any agreements may have signed their death warrant.

Is the US finally at using the big stick now that it is apparent that the carrot is not working?

Misc of Note –

In wading thru the Russia / Ukraine news, there has been a flood of misinformation on expected Russian response - all based on fear mongering. Please remember not to accept stuff on the inter webs of such extreme level with out verification. The bots were out and continue to flow the information realm. Be discerning.

Heads up. Saturday I don’t expect to have the time to produce a report.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***

Fliers set out by the Washington chapter of 50501 appears to be calling for violent riots for June 14th.

OBSERVATION - For well over a year and having accelerated in the past 6 months, the radical left has ramped up justification of and calling for violent and even lethal riots against anything Trump. We see it as recently as this weekend with leftists celebrating and supporting the terror attack by Mohamed Sabry Soliman in Bolder CO.

Leftists are expressing support for the terrorist attack in Boulder, Colo. allegedly by an illegal migrant suspect who was given a work visa by the Biden administration after violating his tourist visa. The leftists say the civilians are fair game since they support Israel.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1929765309323661729?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Preparations by the left have continued relatively under the radar since the 2020 riots. Groups like the John Brown Gun Club and Redneck Revolt popped up and noted for their firearms training and community defense efforts. More recently, segments of the LGBT and trans community are taking an active role in this armed preparedness. Concerned about rising political hostility and violence, especially toward trans individuals, some have formed armed self-defense networks and mutual aid collectives. These groups often blend gun ownership with strong anti-fascist and anti-racist ideology, and they view preparation not just as political resistance, but as survival.

At this time, there is no shortage of politically and ideologically motivated individuals and groups out there chomping at the bit to start the revolution / intifada. These elements will likely be blended into a larger mass of protestors for cover and escape after executing their attacks. They are more willing than ever. We have to be ever vigilant.

Further thought - most recent terror and violence actions have been by anti-Israeli individuals and groups. If there are further (lethal) attacks, it will likely be under the banner of anti-Israel and pro-Hamas bleats. This seems to have gained greater traction among the left than even anti-deportation efforts.

***
(FO) Speaking at an economic summit, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon gave a global and U.S. outlook, which is worth watching. Here are two highlights: (My selection)

- THREAT WITHIN: “Then the biggest [threat is] the enemy within. I’m not as worried about China. China is a potential adversary; they’re doing a lot of things well, they have a lot of problems. What I really worry about is us. Can we get our own act together?”

- NATIONAL SECURITY: “We know what constitutes national security… We shouldn’t be stockpiling Bitcoin. We should be stockpiling guns, bullets, tanks, planes, drones, you know, rare earths. We know what we need to do. This is not a mystery… We should be stockpiling bullets. [I]f there’s a war in the South China Sea, we have missiles for seven days. Okay.”

OBSERVATION - Dimon being in charge of JPMorgan Chase gives him some credibility in some of his views, since it is his charter to keep the bank /investment juggernaut making money and having to look to the future. Concerns I noted above are internal strife and even a CW condition as well as our general unreadiness for a major conflict with China. Both of these can feed back into a CW2 scenario via mass disruptions / chaos that can ensue. Also, he touches on economic considerations that will potentially have significant impact in the future.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.

Boulder CO terror follow up -

Paperwork with the word “USAID” was found in the car of Mohamed Sabry Soliman, who was accused of allegedly throwing the explosives at the attack in Boulder, Colorado.

According to Fox News, an arrest affidavit said that officials found the paperwork with other paperwork with the words “Israel” and “Palestine” in addition to a red gas container and rags.

“He specifically targeted the ‘Zionist Group’ that had gathered in Boulder having learned about the group from an online search,” the affidavit stated.

Authorities said that the suspect told law enforcement officials that he would conduct the attack again.

Mohammed Sabry Soliman has been charged by federal officials with 16 counts of attempted murder, hate crimes, and a list of other charges, officials said on June 2.

OBSERVATION - I said yesterday that he had planned an attack and current evidence shows that to be a fact. Also, indicators continue to indicate this was a lone wolf event.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

About 500 U.S. troops have withdrawn from Syria in recent weeks, two U.S. officials tell Fox News. Three U.S. bases have been either turned over to the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) or closed down. This includes Mission Support Site Green Village which has been shut down, and Mission Support Site Euphrates which has been handed over to the SDF. U.S. troops have also vacated from a third much smaller outpost.

https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1929575686164942987

***

Navy Secretary John Phelan visited Guam earlier this month and was “appalled” after seeing the conditions of an Air Force barracks where junior service members were living, prompting an ongoing Navy-wide inspection of more than 100,000 barracks units, according to a government watchdog and service officials.

Conditions included exposed wires, corroded plumbing and dilapidated walls splattered with paint to cover mold; after Phelan’s visit, more than 70 Marines and sailors were moved out of the Palau Hall barracks, a housing facility at Andersen Air Force Base. Another 77 airmen there are “in the process of being relocated” in anticipation of a $53 million renovation scheduled to start later this year, an Air Force spokesperson told Military.com on Friday.

https://hotair.com/headlines/2025/06/02/navy-orders-forcewide-housing-inspections-after-secretary-appalled-by-guam-barracks-conditions-n3803367

OBSERVATION - This is a result of poor resource allocation - where DEI got funds and the troops got nothing. I saw residual similar conditions when I entered the Army, as Reagan’s military worked to improve base housing left neglected by Carter and previous presidents in a post Vietnam mind set.

***
Since the attack on Sunday, a defense official in a NATO country in Europe said that it has already led to discussions about whether allies need to reassess their own airbase vulnerabilities, specifically in cases where long-range military aircraft, such as B-52H Long-Range Strategic Bombers with the U.S. Air Force, are placed out in the open without adequate shelter or in most cases any cover at all. With many airbases in Europe still using Cold War-era “Christmas Tree” alert areas, which are totally open to attacks from drones, for visiting long-range bombers from the United States.

Samuel Bendett, an expert on Russian drones and other weapons at the Center for Naval Analysis, said “we are slowly coming around” to the threat posed by drones to airbases across the United States. Adding, “When it comes to large military bases that have a lot of aircraft parked on the tarmac, the lesson from the Ukrainian attack is that such a strike can potentially come at any moment. At this point, it’s unlikely that our bases feature comprehensive protection against short-range threats.”

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1929762369862807622?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - We’ve already had unidentified drones flying over sensitive facilities and military bases across the US. In the case of the US bomber force, parked in the open is a hold over from the cold war era treaties where both Russia (Soviet Union) and the US could verify dispositions.

Also, cue recent efforts to keep Chinese related front groups from purchasing land adjacent to / near US bases. Tactics of war are quickly changing and were are falling behind.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Doctors and residents across China continue to report more infections and deaths as the latest wave of COVID-19 continues, portraying a far more severe situation than the Chinese regime is letting on.

Schools in various provinces are reportedly suspending classes and placing students in quarantine, leading to growing concerns among the public of a return of lockdowns, according to information provided to the Chinese language version of The Epoch Times and on social media.

A “home quarantine notice”—issued by a primary school in Guangzhou and circulated by Chinese netizens on China’s TikTok equivalent, Douyin, before it was posted to social media platform X on May 26 before CCP censors could delete it—has attracted widespread attention.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/schools-in-china-reportedly-isolate-students-as-covid-cases-surge-5866151?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=TheLibertyDaily

OBSERVATION - wuhan, like all viruses, tends to mutate over time and can produce stronger variants as well as weaker ones. It is reports like this that caught my attention in 2019 when all eyes were on the impeachment proceeding of Trump. Since then, the wuhan mRNA jab has wreaked havoc on peoples immune systems making many more susceptible to these follow-on mutations. The marxist medical community elements - yes I went there - have been seeking some sort of a new medical alert to try to force citizens back into a ‘two weeks to break the curve’ mentality. Lately its been measles - a common childhood disease that is being overblown. Now a new wuhan strain. The medical community burned a lot of bridges in starting in 2020 and we will remain skeptical at this develops.

POLITICAL FRONT –

A senior official in President Donald Trump’s Justice Department told staff Monday that he has been directed to investigate clemency granted by Democrat Joe Biden in the waning days of his presidency to members of his family and death row inmates.

Ed Martin, the Justice Department’s pardon attorney, wrote in an email seen by Reuters that the investigation involves whether Biden “was competent and whether others were taking advantage of him through use of AutoPen or other means.”

The email stated that Martin’s investigation is focused on preemptive pardons Biden issued to several members of his family and clemency that spared 37 federal inmates from the death penalty, converting their sentences to life in prison. Just before he relinquished the presidency to Trump on Jan. 20, Biden pardoned five members of his family, saying he wanted to protect them from future politically motivated investigations.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/autopen-pardons-justice/2025/06/03/id/1213356/

OBSERVATION - The biggest scandal in US history and a potential constitutional crisis in my life time at least. If demonstrated biden had no knowledge or approval for the autopen to be used, the fight is on to reverse these pardons and open the door to potentially reversing many other auto penned EOs.

***
A recent CNN poll shows just 16% of Americans believe the Democratic Party has “strong leaders” while 40% believe the Republican Party does. Only 32% of Democrats believe their party has strong leaders.

Illegal Immigration –

ICE released a review of Operation Patriot, an intraservice effort throughout Massachusetts with the FBI, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the ATF, the U.S. Department of State’s Diplomatic Security Service, the U.S. Marshals Service and the U.S. Coast Guard during May. The services arrested 1,461 illegal aliens, more than half of whom had criminal records.

China -

(FO) The Chinese Commerce Ministry said the Trump administration has “seriously undermined” and “violated” the U.S.-China tariff truce by revoking visas for Chinese students and restricting semiconductor technology exports to China.

On Friday, President Trump accused China of violating the truce by delaying critical minerals exports to the United States. “What China is doing is they are holding back products that are essential for the industrial supply chains of India, of Europe, and that is not what a reliable partner does,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

OBSERVATION - Expect these negotiations to be very much rough and tumble

North/South Korea –

Some 44.4 million South Korean’s are heading to the polls to cast ballots this Tuesday in a snap presidential election.

The vote was prompted when Yoon Suk Yeol was ousted for attempting to establish martial law in December.

Yoon’s archrival, left-leaning Lee Jae-myung is favored to win the vote. Conservative candidate Kim Moon Soo has failed to win over voters as his party spirals amid infighting.

OBSERVATION - Not good news as the left in SK is akin to the marxist left here in the US

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
Kerch Bridge update –

Security Service of Ukraine reportedly has blown up pillar of Kerch Bridge with 1100kgs of explosives planted underwater

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 90s mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Developing - Security Service of Ukraine claim to have blown up pillar of Kerch Bridge with 1100kgs of explosives planted underwater

During the night of June 2–3, Ukraine’s Air Defense neutralized 75 enemy drones, including Shahed-type UAVs, out of 112 launched by Russia from multiple directions (Kursk, Oryol, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and Crimea).
Russia targeted multiple Ukrainian cities. In Chernihiv, a private home burned down, a school, apartment building, and business were damaged—four people are hospitalized. In Odesa, several homes and infrastructure were hit, vehicles burned, and four people were injured. In Kharkiv region, a civilian facility was struck, destroying a postal terminal—one person was killed and another injured.

Ukraine launched a major drone attack, consisting of over 200 long-range attack drones, against Russian-occupied Crimea and Southwestern Russia.

Drone strikes are being reported tonight against power substations in both Russian-occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in Southeastern Ukraine, with major power outages having occurred as a result of the strikes

Russian losses per 03/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1100 men
+7 tanks
+8 AFVs
+48 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system

Sumy -

ISW analysis indicates Russian forces appear to be intensifying efforts to widen the frontline in northern Sumy Oblast along three axes of advance north and northeast of Sumy City.

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Andriyivka village of Sumy region of Ukraine

Summary —

Kerch Bridge first - Surveillance video does show a massive explosion ADJACENT to one of the bridge pillars and not the pillar itself. The spray of water and debris blocks view of the pillar and whether or not it was significantly damaged by the explosion. Over one ton of explosives can do significant damage and Russian sources have been very tight lipped about the extent of any damage. Further engineering studies are necessary to gauge the damage and that would be forthright any time soon. If the damage is significant enough, it will force Russia to limit use of the bridge at a time when efforts are to increase pressure against Ukraine along the southern front.
Along with this is the fact that an Ukrainian demolition team was able to get to the bridge, plant the explosives and exit without detection is a serious slap to the face of Russian security of the Bridge.

Growing evidence of a developing push in the Sumy region. So far the penetration seems to be in the 10 - 15 km range and reportedly not reaching the first lines of major defense of Sumy. Russia appears to be pushing in the Kharkiv sector as well.

Russia’ response to the drone attack is still speculative. OSINT folks using commercial satellite imagery indicate that clearly as many as 15 airframes were destroyed or seriously damaged. This analysis is limited by the resolution of the photos which may miss minor, though crippling damages on other aircraft. Remember, Ukraine has videos of every impact from FPVs sets.

Loss of active / functioning bombers places stress on the rest of the fleet, many airframes are nothing but hangar queens and not airworthy, but included in the count of Russian bombers.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Trump and Netanyahu talk after Iranian rejection of proposal.

- IDF expands Gaza operations

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Global news services favorable to Hamas continue to spread the story that Israel attacked civilians at a food distribution site, even though it was repudiated and even the BBC had to issue a retraction.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

The Israeli army orders Palestinians in a new area of southern Gaza’s Khan Younis to evacuate, as the military expands its ground offensive against Hamas

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Israeli army: A missile fired from Yemen was intercepted.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

WFP: We call for more food aid to be allowed into Gaza and distributed quickly.

OBSERVATION - By this stage in the game, it is pretty clear such UN related food ‘distribution’ is nothing but a ploy to support Hamas and not Gazans.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

No real hostage / ceasefire talks to speak of has allowed Israel to put the petal to the metal in Gaza.

Looks like action against Iran may be in the offing (again). See below.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.

Iran rejected a U.S. proposal to end a decades-old nuclear dispute. This sets up a game of Chicken with Iran calling Trump’s bluff.

Reuters is reporting that according to an Iranian diplomat attached to the talks, Iran may be ready to walk away from the table and call Donald Trump’s bluff.

Following this rejection it has been reported that Trump spoke with Netanyahu.

Associated with this rejection was misinformation from an Axios report the administration proposed allowing Iran limited low-level uranium enrichment “for civilian purposes,” President Trump issued a statement of his own. Basially Trump said not only no but hell no to Axios claim.

OBSERVATION - Once again we are poised on the edge of a an attack on Iran’s nuclear program. Recent IAEA reports combined with Iranian refusal to essentially negotiate has left the US / Israeli coalition with few other choices other than to strike militarily. Especially in the view that Iran as accelerated its enrichment program and cold soon have nuclear grade uranium (if it doesn’t already possess some already).

Again, time to fish or cut bait.

Black Swans -

News Nation journalist Ross Coulthart claims that an apocalyptic event will happen in 2027: “Everybody’s telling me we’re on borrowed time”

“I cannot begin to emphasize how serious a look I get… They’re saying to me, ‘People have a right to know this’…

They are all constrained by their national security oaths. They want the public to know.”

So what is it?

Ross Coulthart says that his contacts inside the government cannot tell him without breaking their oaths, but apparently it is something really big.
During the interview, Coulthart speculated that it could be “a pole reversal” or “an asteroid hitting the planet”…

https://endoftheamericandream.com/is-an-extinction-level-event-coming-in-2027-or-even-sooner/

OBSERVATION - Nefarious doom prophet Michael Snyder posted this article to help sales of his latest book. Coulthart prediction lacks concrete evidence. Tied deeply is an alien connection. While this ‘story’ has spread across the interwebs over the past few days, I urge great skepticism. Snyder has a very poor track record of his claims being validated and relying on an equally poor source doesn’t help his credibility either, and is just an effort to boost book sales.

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