CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
Weekend is upon us and projected protests appear to be rather tame. Numerous ‘banner’ type events. Nothing really stands out as potentially violent.
Never the less, if a protest is announced in your area, maintain situational awareness as things could spike with little warning.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Prices barely climbed in April, pulling the annual rate of inflation down toward the Federal Reserve’s two percent target, even while personal income climbed at a rapid rate.
The personal consumption price index climbed 0.1 percent in April, the second month in a row in which consumers got relief from inflation that had plagued the economy throughout the Biden administration. In March, the index showed prices were flat.
Compared with a year ago, prices are up just 2.1 percent. That just one-tenth above the two percent rate of inflation the Fed says it targets. In March, prices were up 2.3 percent from a year earlier.
Core prices, a measure that excludes food and energy, also rose 0.1 percent. Over the past year, core prices are up 2.5 percent, the smallest year-over-year increase since March of 2021.
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2025/05/30/core-inflation-falls-to-lowest-rate-in-four-years/
OBSERVATION - The Fed is going to find it difficult to defend not lowering rates with these inflation numbers. If it does, it will go against its stated policy of a few years ago when it started ramping the prime to highest levels seen in decades.
Also, refusal will be seen as deliberate actions to sabotage the economy under Trump and will likely generated severe backlash.
***
President Donald Trump has announced the US will double its current tariff rate on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, starting on Wednesday.
Speaking at a rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on Friday, Trump said the move would help boost the local steel industry and national supply, while reducing reliance on China.
Trump also said that $14bn would be invested in the area’s steel production through a partnership between US Steel and Japan’s Nippon Steel, though he later told reporters he had yet to see or approve the final deal.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy0k5x21y35o
***
The Washington, D.C.-based Federal Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily paused a ruling from the U.S. Court of International Trade that blocked the Trump administration’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The court did not specify how long the temporary pause will last.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats are trying to rebrand. They are so desperate that donors are throwing in tens of millions of dollars to change the party’s image, as reported in The New York Times this week.
https://hotair.com/headlines/2025/05/30/dems-keep-trying-to-rebuild-their-death-star-n3803272
OBSERVATION - So far, this “rebranding” effort appears to be doubling down on the policies and agenda soundly defeated in 2024. Now they have an overweight, lesbian being the point ‘person’ to entice college frat boys to the democrat party.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump’s approval rating -
According to Rasmussen, the final report for May has Trump’s approval rating at 53 percent, five points higher than the final report for April. In the end, he did spend every day in May at or above level.
Illegal Immigration –
The Supreme Court on Friday stayed a lower court order that blocked the Trump administration from deporting roughly 500,000 migrants from Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. The decision is a near-term victory for President Donald Trump as he moves to crack down on border security and immigration priorities in his second term.
The order stays, for now, a lower court ruling that halted Trump’s plans to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) protections for some migrants living in the U.S., which allows individuals to live and work in the U.S. legally if they cannot work safely in their home country due to a disaster, armed conflict or other “extraordinary and temporary conditions.”
OBSERVATION - Judicial activism is slowly being reigned in. Justice Sonia Sotomayor and Jackson opposed the decision - failing to understand the meaning of “temporary”.
China -
During a May 30 press conference in the Oval Office, Trump said the Chinese regime violated “a big part” of the agreement, and signaled he would continue negotiations with Xi.
U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer said on CNBC on May 30 that the United States has been monitoring China’s compliance with the latest agreement and that it’s “very concerned with it.”
“The United States did exactly what it was supposed to do, and the Chinese are slow rolling their compliance, which is completely unacceptable,” Greer said. “Time and time again, you know, we see the Chinese come down and not comply with their agreements, slow roll compliance, not open their economy like they should.”
***
President Trump announced late on Friday that his administration will double tariffs on steel imports from 25% to 50%, saying the move would help protect American steelworkers during a visit to a United States Steel Corp. plant in Pittsburgh on Friday focused on boosting the US steel industry.
https://thelibertydaily.com/trump-is-doubling-u-s-steel-tariffs-50/
OBSERVATION - The steel workers present reportedly were enthusiastic about the news.
***
The court battles over tariffs got all the attention this week but that wasn’t the only sign the Trump administration is still engaged in a trade war with China. On Wednesday the administration suspended the sale of jet engines and some high tech chips and software as well. The target of these new restrictions seems to be China’s first passenger jet, the C919.
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/05/30/trump-suspended-sales-of-jet-engines-to-china-n3803317
North/South Korea –
South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported yesterday that Russia has provided North Korea with modern air defense systems, electronic warfare systems, missile development information, and 1 million barrels of fuel. All of these are in violation of the UN sanctions program on North Korea.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russia continues to play games regarding ANY peace / ceasefire talks with Ukraine.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s mostly clear with scattered thunderstorms.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia has launched offensive actions in the Zaporizhzhia direction — Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi.
“Russian activity has intensified. Main efforts are focused on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka axes, as well as border areas of Sumy region,” he said.
***
Ukraine’s air defense neutralized 69 Shahed drones and 3 Kh-59/69 guided missiles overnight on May 31.
Russia launched 114 air attack assets, including 107 Shaheds, missiles, and UAVs from multiple directions.
8 drone strikes in Kharkiv: two in Shevchenkivskyi district, six in Kyivskyi district,
Russian losses per 31/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1250 men
+2 tanks
+5 AFVs
+54 artillery
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novopil village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Sumy -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Vodolahy village of Sumy region of Ukraine
Partisan Resistance ——
In occupied Melitopol district, Ukrainian partisans reportedly successfully blew up a train carrying freight and fuel tankers, according to preliminary reports. The train was headed toward occupied Crimea.
Summary —
Ground fighting numbers have grown, suggesting that the impression of new offensive is building. However, I’m not seeing fighting levels in the Zaporizhzhia region at a level to justify saying there is a new offensive effort centered there. On going fighting much further to the east is not a threat to Zaporizhzhia. Monitoring
Not reporting much on the soap opera that are the Russia / Ukraine ceasefire / peace talks. It is apparent that Russia thinks they are a joke and are using multiple pronouncements as a means to embarrass Ukraine and maintaining the initiative in the information / propaganda realm.
Poland –
Poland is building fortifications along its borders with Kaliningrad and Belarus — digging trenches and installing anti-tank obstacles. This is part of East Shield, a national defense initiative launched by the Polish government to fortify its eastern borders.
Europe / NATO General –
The EU views the Sino-Russian alliance as the world’s “biggest challenge.” EU leaders, including Kaja Kallas and Emmanuel Macron, stressed the need to defend the rules-based order amid growing China-Russia cooperation. Kallas warned that 80% of dual-use goods aiding Russia’s war in Ukraine come from China
Pakistan / India – Threat Level warnings have been removed as conditions appear to have returned to pre-combat and pre terror incident levels. May 25, 2025
(FO) India’s Ministry of External Affairs publicly demanded Pakistan vacate its section of Kashmir in order to progress peace talks. At the same time, the Indian Defense Minister promised while aboard India’s aircraft carrier Vikrant that “Operation Sindoor is not over yet” and that it is only paused.
OBSERVATION - Back to a level of sounding ‘tough’ for domestic consumption.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- IDF continues to accelerate operations in Gaza, with heavy airstrikes
- Hamas still rejecting the current Witkoff offer.
- IAF air striikes in Syria
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel decided to block a visit by the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and Turkey to the Palestinian Authority which was planned for Sunday, Israeli official says
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Hamas still rejecting the current Witkoff offer.
Palestinian factions in Gaza urged Hamas to agree to Witkoff’s proposal for a Gaza ceasefire, according to Saudi Al-Arabiya. While the factions do not consider the proposal ideal, they believe it will stop the war and the threat of famine and displacement.
OBSERVATION - Hamas time and again has expressed zero concern for the people. They are willing to sacrifice them for their cause.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
More targeted drone strikes on Hezbollah leadership
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian Radio reported Israeli strikes against a military site in the Jabala area, a post in the Tartus area, and military sites in Latakia.
IDF: The IDF struck weapon storage facilities containing coastal missiles that posed a threat to international and Israeli maritime freedom of navigation, in the Lattakia area of Syria.
In addition, components of surface-to-air missiles were struck in the area of Lattakia.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel continues to advance and control more areas of Gaza, under support of large air strikes. No movement by Hamas towards current ceasefire /hostage plan, and likelihood of one continues to decrease daily. At this stage it appears that Hamas will have to offer some serious concessions to its demands before Israel bites. Hamas’ rejection of the Witkoff rewrite, after claiming to agree to it, has sucked a lot of oxygen out of the room with Hamas’ foreign supporters.
Though I noted yesterday that things were “calm” in Syria, I guess I should caveat things as changeable fast. The decades of war and military build up by Syria and Hezbollah resulted in ammo dumps all over the region to promote survivalabilty. Now as Israel finds one, they can easily take it out.
Iran remains a sensitive subject and one that has Israel ready to take matters into their own hands. See Iran below.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.
(FO) Several high level Iranian officials made public statements that a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal is at an impasse due to differences on whether Iran can retain its enrichment programs.
***
Saudi Arabia’s defense minister warned top Iranian officials to take President Trump’s offer for nuclear talks seriously, or face the risk of an Israeli military strike - Reuters
OBSERVATIONS - Iranian refusal on enrichment may be the final straw on negotiations. Whether or not there is another meeting this weekend is unclear (my last read) any further progress requires abandonment and dismantling under close supervision.
Iran is making the most of their delaying tactics to relocate key elements of their nuclear program to other areas and reinforce structures housing them. There are over a dozen critical locations and a lot of land available to hid things in.
Also, time gained by delays has increased Russian and Chinese support for Iran. Perhaps in part due to the appearance of weakness by Trump failing to hold the line on US demands. How reliable this growing alliance will be should bombs start dropping is uncertain at the moment.
Thanks Godzilla
Hoping for clear skies tonight to watch the aurora, projected to be directly overhead. This won’t be as big as the famous May 2024 storm, but still forecast to be a doozy. Currently things are at a KP = 8 level
HF bands are currently trashed out as a result.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
ICE deployed multiple flashbangs against a mob of San Diego pro-illegals trying to interfere with their deportation operation at an Italian pizza joint.
OBSERVATION - A clear escalation by the anti-deportation crowd in a more spontaneous manner.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
After 2 weeks, the B-52 presence on Guam has ended and they have returned to Barksdale AFB, LA.
TRUMP Watch –
RUMINT - President Trump has contracted Silicon Valley tech firm Palantir to create a master database on every American citizen.
Peter Thiel, who founded the company alongside Alex Karp, mentored Trump’s VP, JD Vance.
The claim that Trump contracted Palantir for a “master database on every American” lacks official confirmation, though data-sharing efforts exist. Misleading elements include the unverified “master database” term, implying a centralized system not explicitly supported by evidence.
OBSERVATION - This nearly qualifies for the Globalism / Great Reset category - if proven true. A ‘data-sharing’ between govt alphabet agencies would / could naturally lead to such a large data base on americans. Such a data base could form the basis for bad things in the future.
Illegal Immigration –
ICE hit many businesses over the past few days, rounding up hundreds of illegals and hammering business owners for hiring illegals in violation of the law.
ICE is also pushing for a goal of 3000 deportations per day.
China -
The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz has returned to the contested South China Sea, where it is conducting flight operations under the command of the Japan-based U.S. Seventh Fleet.
China continues to claim sovereignty over the vast majority of the South China Sea through its so-called “nine-dash line,” despite overlapping claims from several Southeast Asian countries and a 2016 international tribunal ruling that found Beijing’s claims to have no legal basis. Chinese military construction on disputed islands, including runways and radar systems, has raised concerns among neighbouring nations and the international community.
Reacting to the Nimitz’s latest deployment, the People’s Liberation Army Southern Theater Command condemned the U.S. Navy’s actions, stating that the U.S. had “deliberately disrupted the situation in the South China Sea” and had “seriously violated China’s sovereignty and security … undermined regional peace and stability, and … violated international law and basic norms governing international relations.”
The United States has pushed back strongly against China’s narrative, asserting that “unlawful and sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea pose a serious threat to the freedom of the seas.” In a broader policy statement, the U.S. government affirmed its position that “freedoms of navigation and overflight, free trade and unimpeded commerce, and freedom of economic opportunity for South China Sea littoral nations” are essential to regional and global stability.
“As long as some countries continue to claim and assert limits on rights that exceed their authority under international law, the United States will continue to defend the rights and freedoms of the sea guaranteed to all,” the U.S. government added, reiterating that no nation should be “intimidated or coerced into giving up their rights and freedoms.”
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/american-carrier-sails-south-china-sea-despite-china-warning/
OBSERVATION - US balancing the need to have force projection in this area vs support to CENTCOM for an Iranian operation. Following the deployment of the Washington for developments.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 90s mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 210 Shahed-type drones of 472, 172 more were intercepted by electronic warfare means, 3 of 4 Iskander-K/Kh-101 cruise missiles. Russian army had also launched 3 ballistic Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles overnight
At least 12 servicemen killed, 60 wounded as result of missile strike at training center of Ukrainian Land Forces
There are incoming reports of a fire at Belaya Air Base in Russia’s Irkutsk region. This base also hosts strategic bombers — used in missile strikes against Ukraine.
Explosions were also reported at Dyagilevo airfield
Videos from the FPV drones show strikes on Tu-95MS bombers.
OF NOTE - A buildup of Russian strategic aviation had been detected at the Olenya airfield, including as many as 40 Tu-22M3 bombers and 11 Tu-95MS aircraft, Defense Express reports.
Satellite images published on X by the aviation-focused account AviVector indicate that as of May 26, 2025, the following aircraft were stationed at Olenya airfield:
According to analysts, the presence of 40 Tu-22M3 bombers at Olenya on May 26 sharply contrasts with mid-May satellite data showing that Russia had concentrated 42 such aircraft at the Belaya airbase in Siberia.
“And all this despite the fact that Russia’s Aerospace Forces have a total of only up to 60 Tu-22M3 bombers,” Defense Express emphasized.
Dozens of aircraft were reportedly damaged or destroyed. Tu-22M3, Tu-95MS, and possible A-50.
Russian security services have reportedly detained a driver of a truck that brought dozens of drones to Olenegorsk..
***
Unknown individuals detonated a bridge over the Moscow-Klimovo railway, causing it to collapse onto a passing train, derailing it and damaging several cars.
A Russian military freight train was blown up near Melitopol, heading toward Crimea, — Ukraine’s military intelligence confirmed.
The explosion derailed fuel tankers and cargo wagons near Yakymivka overnight. Following the blast, Russian forces launched a manhunt, deploying Rosgvardia patrols and tightening checkpoint controls.
A Russian cargo train suffered a major derailment this morning after a bridge collapsed in Kursk Oblast. This marks the third major incident on the Russian rail network in 36 hours.
***
Russian losses per 01/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1230 men
+5 tanks
+4 AFVs
+52 artillery
+1 MLRS
Sumy -
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Oleksiivka village of Sumy region of Ukraine
Summary —
Explosive activity overnight.
First notice of critical ground action. If the claim of Russia seizing Oleksiivka village of Sumy region is true, then there has been a significant penetration in that sector. Available reporting has indicated that sector to rather limited in the fighting of late, which could be reflected in OPSEC if such a penetration was going on. Monitoring.
Two other big events. First the coordinated attack on rail lines supporting Russian military operations to the Ukraine region. Three separate hits, which will take weeks for Russia to repair. Russia relies very heavily upon rail to support military operations primarily since it doesn’t have the trucking to handle the material. With the claims of a Russian summer offensive, taking these lines out will snarl Russian logistics.
Second is the apparent coordinated strike on three Russian airbases housing strategic bombers. NOTE - I am slightly confused by the names from several reports as spelling differences / references are common in slavic languages. Major strike apparently at Olenya airfield, where the number of bombers were recently noted as being increased in what some considered a staging for a much larger Russian air attack. This attack apparently was made by FPVs and a control team smuggled into Russia. Just from the FPV videos alone, a considerable number of Tu-22M3 bombers, the workhorse of Russian strategic cruise missile attacks on Ukraine, were directly destroyed and secondary damage to adjacent aircraft, packed in large numbers on the tarmac, could send the count higher.
The rail and air attacks displayed a degree of boldness not seen of late - requiring penetration of teams into Russia and controlled territories. Will have to see if this was a once and done operation or will there be other similar attacks in the future.
Europe / NATO General –
Middle eastern migrants in Paris use the soccer win as an excuse to riot, a car has crashed into a group of pedestrians.
Gotta love that cultural enrichment eh?
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- IAEA reports Iran closing in on enough enriched uranium to produce 9 bombs
- Hamas demands rejected by Witcoff / US as well as Israel.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu’s office: IAEA report shows Iran’s intention to complete nuclear weapons program
***
US envoy Steve Witkoff on Saturday rejected Hamas’ response to the newest ceasefire proposal, slamming it as “totally unacceptable” and stressing that it “only takes us backward.”
A senior official familiar with the details of the negotiations revealed that a thorough analysis of Hamas’ response shows that the terror group’s proposal is far from aligning with Israel’s offer.
Among Hamas’ demands: a ceasefire lasting up to seven years, a full IDF withdrawal from all areas captured since March, cancellation of the new humanitarian aid distribution model led by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, and a return to the previous distribution system. “This isn’t a response — it’s a slammed door,” the official stated.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/409271
***
Prime Minister Netanyahu: “While Israel has agreed to the updated Witkoff outline for the release of our hostages, Hamas continues to adhere to its refusal. As Witkoff said, Hamas’ response is unacceptable and sets the situation back. Israel will continue its action for the return of our hostages and the defeat of Hamas.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Following Hamas firing three rockets IDF warns residents -
Israeli army: To all residents of Khan Yunis, Bani Suheila, and Abasan, the terrorist organizations continue to use your surroundings to launch rockets towards Israel. The Israeli army will aggressively attack any area used as a launching pad for terrorist activity. This area has been warned and warned several times in the past and has been designated a dangerous combat zone.
***
A fatma was issued against any Gazans that speak out against Hamas or if they take back Aid that was stolen by Hamas, but meant for Gazans in the first place.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
There appears to be no ceasefire/hostage release. Hamas recent efforts to derail Israel’s operation Gideons Chariots have fallen apart and IDF is pressing the effort on the ground. What is evident from Hamas demands is that the US/Israel food relief is causing considerable problems for Hamas’ control of the citizen population. Simple principle - he who controls the food, controls the people, and Hamas is losing that control.
Bigger news regarding Iran and its sprint to reach the bomb before being bombed. See below.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.
Iran is less than two weeks out from being able to process nuclear weapons-grade material, according to the Wall Street Journal. This revelation comes at the same time talks between the U.S. and Iran over the Iranian nuclear program are paused.
It could take several months to construct a complete nuclear weapon, but Iran is just days out from being able to process enough enriched uranium into high-level fissile material to make one work.
The Journal said the startling information was included in a confidential International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report that went to member states. The report indicated Iran’s cache of enriched uranium has increased by about 50% since its last report in February.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/iran-nuclear-weapons/2025/05/31/id/1213068/
MORE RELATED
The UN’s nuclear watchdog has completed an investigation into Iranian activities, mainly covert, and has delivered a damning report about the regime in Tehran. Not only does the IAEA confirm that Iran has consistently cheated in its agreements on nuclear energy, they are pushing hard for more enrichment to successfully build several nuclear weapons:
Iran carried out secret nuclear activities with material not declared to the U.N. nuclear watchdog at three locations that have long been under investigation, the watchdog said in a wide-ranging, confidential report to member states seen by Reuters.
The findings in the “comprehensive” International Atomic Energy Agency report requested by the agency’s 35-nation Board of Governors in November pave the way for a push by the United States, Britain, France and Germany for the board to declare Iran in violation of its non-proliferation obligations.
A separate IAEA report sent to member states on Saturday said Iran’s stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% of weapons grade, had grown by roughly half to 408.6 kg. That is enough, if enriched further, for nine nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.
Approximately 42 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium is theoretically enough to produce one atomic bomb, if enriched further to 90%, according to the watchdog.
The IAEA report confirms Iran carried out secret nuclear weapons work using undeclared material at three covert sites — Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, and Turquzabad.
***
Iran has issued a NOTAM for June 1–2, 2025, warning of missile and drone activity in southeastern Iran near the Gulf of Oman. The alert includes two daily time slots and shuts down several air routes during those periods.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - Iranian arrogance in the face of Trump words has shot to the forefront overnight. The IAEA report should be a slap in the face of US negotiators (pay attention Witkoff) of Iran’s dishonesty at the bargaining table and their willing violation of those agreements they currently are under. There is no requirement under a civilian nuclear program (i e power plants) for uranium to be enriched to 60%. The only purpose for that is as a step towards nuclear weapons grade uranium.
My current operating assumption is that Iran has received enough technical support from Russia and N Korea to by pass a lot of the testing normally required for construction of a bomb. Many of these other tests, such as testing the detonation devices, may have already occurred, since the large territory of Iran contains many locations where large conventional explosions could be conducted without detection.
In essence, Iran’s proud declarations bound up in the IAEA report have caused them to light the fuse for a soon military strike on its operations. The substantial increase in 60% enriched uranium (50%) is enough of a red line for Israel to justify an attack - NOW.
Trump reportedly has hopes of an agreement. I hope these developments wake him up to the reality of the situation. Iran is stalling in an effort to gain the bomb. It is currently at its weakest state in decades and likely sees the bomb as shifting its power projection to the world.
A second item is the progression of Iran’s ballistic missile program to deliver these bombs. Not only a threat to Israel, but Europe and US interests as well.