What chaos can we expect this week?
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
An attack yesterday struck a pro-Israel protest in Boulder, Colorado calling for the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The group was hit by several Molotov cocktails, burning / injuring attendees thrown by the attacker.
The attacker was arrested and identified by law enforcement as Mohamad Soliman. Soliman allegedly disguised himself as a landscaper before throwing Molotov cocktails at the group. The Boulder terror suspect has been identified as an illegal immigrant, Mohamed Sabry Soliman. Originally from Egypt, Soliman came to the US in 2022 during the Biden administration, overstayed his temporary visa, and his work authorization had expired. Some have indicated that he may have been indoctrinated or associated with Muslim Brotherhood from his time in Egypt. He shouted anti-Israeli slogans and ‘free Palestine” during his attack.
Boulder Police stating that they are not yet labeling this a terrorist attack, as Soliman’s motives are still under investigation by themselves and the FBI.
Statements by both FBI Director Kash Patel and FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino regarding today’s potential terrorist attack targeting supporters of Israel in Boulder, Colorado.
OBSERVATION - MSM was quick to down play the terror aspect, but if it walks like a duck, swims like a duck, etc. . . . .
Apparently a lone wolf attack with the available data, though there appears to be some preparatory work, one just doesn’t have Molotov cocktails lying around. He must have been looking for an opportunity to attack.
Boulder, Colorado is designated as a sanctuary city, meaning it limits its cooperation with federal immigration enforcement. This status was formalized by the City Council to reassure immigrant communities. Doubtful that the city council will change its decree following this attack.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) returned to her homeport at Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia today, with her crew being welcomed by hundreds of friends and family, following a near nine-month deployment to the U.S. 5th and 6th Fleet Areas-of-Responsibility, during which they conducting extensive combat operations against the Iranian-backed Houthis in the Red Sea.
POLITICAL FRONT –
In many ways quiet because congress hasn’t been in session but for a few days.
Illegal Immigration –
Nadler office was raided by Fed Protection Service officers yesterday as part of a search where it was reported that anti deportation protestors were being hidden in his offices. One aid was detained for trying to obstruct the search.
They claimed they received reports that protesters were hiding inside the congressional office.
‘Based on earlier incidents in a nearby facility, FPS officers were concerned about the safety of the federal employees in the office and went to the location to ensure the safety and wellbeing of those present,’ Homeland Security officials told the New York Post. Witnesses claimed that leftist activists monitoring ICE activities fled into Nadler’s offices when confronted.
Nadler whined: “If this can happen in a Member of Congress’s office, it can happen to anyone — and it is happening,”
OBSERVATION - As strong message sent to leftist congress critters. Do NOT assist and shelter protestors of any flavor.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russia scrambling to do damage control after yesterday’s drone attacks
Russia has developed a new paranoia: trucks. Long queues are forming as authorities now inspect cargo vehicles thoroughly.
According to Russian sources, drivers of trucks allegedly used to launch Ukrainian drones toward military airfields have been interrogated. One claimed his truck carried prefab houses from Chelyabinsk to Murmansk. En route, unknown callers instructed him where and when to stop—at one such stop, drones reportedly launched.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
In the wake of Ukraine’s drone attack, rumors are flying that Russia is reportedly considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons in response to Ukraine’s drone strikes. Fake alerts are all over the place. One alert claimed nuclear ‘go’ messages off the Russian HF transmitters - except that yesterday’s solar storm shut down the HF spectrum.
Other rumors suggest putin is going to use the underdevelopment Oreshnik medium range MRV missile(s) in a retaliatory strike.
There is no doubt that Russia is considering a massive, retaliatory strike but tactical nukes are still a stretch.
RUMINT-
Russian reportedly mustering latest generation fighter bombers in an attempt to penetrate Ukraine airspace as part of a retaliatory strike.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 90s mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
First the basics
Ukrainian Air Force: 52 air targets neutralized overnight on June 2. In total, Russia launched 84 aerial threats including 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and one Iskander-K cruise missile.
Russian losses per 02/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1140 men
+2 tanks
+7 AFVs
+48 artillery
+2 AD systems
Additional Ukraine drone attack reports:
- Ukrainian UAVs reported in Borisoglebsk, which hosts Borisoglebsk air base, home to Russia fighter jets.
- According to Russian channels, Ukrainian naval drones have been spotted in the Black Sea heading for occupied Crimea.
- Reports of 150 long range drones are slicing through Russian airspace, headed straight for military targets in Moscow. Eight explosions are recorded in the Lipetsk region.
- Ukrainian strike hit a Russian ballistic missile production facility.
Russian media reporting attack at the industrial zone of Sorokyne town at the occupied part of Luhansk region of Ukraine with Storm Shadow cruise missiles
***
Post Operation Review - “Operation Spiderweb”
More details concerning the bold and apparently very successful strike by Ukraine using FPV drones against Russian strategic bombers at 4 airbases, Belaya, Dyagilevo, Olenya and Ivanovo. A fifth base attack may have failed due to the transport container explosion/ fire.
The attack was reportedly 18 months in the making.
Apparent Russian intel and readiness failures exploited:
- Russians were expecting “large drones” attack in the night, not “small drones” attack in the middle of the day
- Planes were on the ground with full tanks, prepared to take off in the case of alert, and drones hit planes in the tanks
- No alert, as an attack was sudden, mobile communications were not turned off
Ukraine FPV pilots exploited the Russian Cellular network to control the drones.
Ukraine estimates that it destroyed or at least least damaged 34% of long-range cruise missile carriers (over 30 airframes) used by the Russian Air Force for missile strikes against cities in Ukraine. Total estimated cost of over $7 billion (US). OSINT analysts reviewing commercial satellite imagery have confirmed from just two airbases -
Olenya Air Base:
— 2 Tu-95MS destroyed.
— 2 Tu-95MS damaged.
— 1 An-12 destroyed.
Belaya Air Base:
— 3 Tu-95MS damaged.
— 2 Tu-22M3 damaged
These verified losses need to be tempered against damage that can be observed from commercial satellite imagery as well as videos posted to social media. Lesser damage less likely to be seen. Ukraine claims may be more accurate as the videos of the FPVs were recorded and drones flown into aircraft.
The loss of Tu-95s is particularly critical since X-101 cruise missiles are launched by Tu-95s. Russia’s 5 largest attacks against Ukraine consisted of 93 to 122 missiles launched a day at Ukraine, most from Tu-95s.
***
BTW - Russian and Ukraine are supposed to be meeting today on peace talks.
Summary —
Ukraine’s drone strike continues to suck the wind out of reports from the front. A stroke of genius that would make the Mossad green with envy. As I noted above, hard for OSINT to quantify minor damage to airframes - and to what extent it makes them deadlined for flight operations. The bombers are no longer being made and spare parts increasingly hard to come by. The estimates of 30% include total airframes - and this total includes ‘hangar queens’, canalized for spare parts. The planes hit were those on the ready line, fully operational. Now Russia is stuck with a problem of getting replacements from the unflyable category to flight status. The overall scope of damage is likely very high.
Ukraine also seems to have managed to hit some other key sites in other attacks.
I expect Russia to launch retaliatory attacks within the next few days. However, air launched cruise missiles may be severely limited depending on surviving airframes and their flight readiness. Reports of Ukraine sea drones in the Black Sea may well discourage forays by Russian missile launchers. Recently the Black Sea fleet was emboldened in supporting Russian missile assaults, catching Ukraine unready. Not likely to happen twice.
Deployment of the Oreshnik MRV system is being rumored once again. However, IIRC it is in development and Russian has had problems with recent tests. Its only deployment against Ukraine raised a lot of questions regarding its warheads and effectiveness.
So retaliatory attacks will likely be braced by hundreds of Shahed drones and short range ballistic missiles. Air and sea launched cruise missiles likely to be limited.
Nuclear strikes are still well within the RUMINT level of evaluation. Reports of Russia moves in that direction are strongly unconfirmed.
On the ground, still little on the reported push by Russia into the Sumy oblast noted yesterday. Moderately heavy fighting generally reported.
Poland –
Conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki is the newly elected President of the Republic of Poland. Karol Nawrocki is Roman Catholic who has promoted a return to traditional Polish culture and values.
OBSERVATION - Seen as a pro-Trump individual. Big push back against the more recent attempts of leftists in Poland to succumb to the EU and its mandates.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas pleas for more ceasefire discussions.
- Gaza operations continue to intensify.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday condemned the attack on pro-Israel demonstrators in Colorado, which he said was a result of “blood libels against the Jewish state and people.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Hamas says it is ready to start immediately indirect negotiations with Israel in order to clarify and solve remaining differences around the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal proposal.
Hamas released an official statement: We welcome the continued efforts of Qatar and Egypt to bring an end to Israel’s war against our people in the Gaza Strip. We are ready to immediately begin a round of indirect negotiations to reach an agreement on the points of dispute.
OBSERVATION - Of course. . . .
***
IDF Chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, after a high-level assessment today in southern Gaza alongside top commanders, including Southern Command Chief Maj. Gen. Yaniv Asor, Air Force Chief Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, and COGAT head Maj. Gen. Ghassan Alian—has ordered a significant expansion of the ground offensive against Hamas.
***
Civilian reports from Israel on social media stating that the explosions being heard coming from Gaza are totally unlike any heard since the start of the war.
***
Israeli army drone footage shows gunmen in Gaza shooting at civilians trying to collect humanitarian aid.
After Hamas claims dozens of civilians heading to a GHF aid site were killed by IDF forces today, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation released security footage of the site and stated: “All aid was distributed today without incident. No injuries or fatalities. We have heard that these fake reports have been actively fomented by Hamas. They are untrue and fabricated.”
The GHF released security footage from the distribution site in question during the precise minutes that the “massacre” allegedly took place. NOTHING HAPPENED.
***
Reports out of Gaza suggest that Hamas is losing control of the population with their “police” taking more and more lethal actions towards disobedient Gazans. Key area is Hamas attempt to deny Gazans access to food distribution by GHF. Cooperation from tribal heads is also reported to be crumbling.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
More Hezbollah agents hit by drone launched missiles.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas blew its chance at a ceasefire by overreaching with its demands, and faced with IDF systematically destroying them and much of Gaza is scrambling to regain an edge in the information / propaganda world for leverage against Israel. Recent documented actions by Hamas attacking Gazans attempting to reach GHF distribution centers as well as ‘discovery’ of Hamas warehouses loaded with food has sucked a lot of the ‘famine’ furious out of international press.
Israel has set a goal to achieve control of the Gaza strip in two months and by all accounts is well on its way to do so.
Issues with Lebanon and Syria are currently stable, but can change abruptly depending on if new ammo storage sites deemed a threat to Israel are discovered and destroyed by IAF.
Iran is still front burner - see below
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.
Word on weekend’s negotiations is pretty scarce. Revelations of Iran’s covert push for a nuclear weapon and their willingness to do so contrary to any agreements may have signed their death warrant.
Is the US finally at using the big stick now that it is apparent that the carrot is not working?
Misc of Note –
In wading thru the Russia / Ukraine news, there has been a flood of misinformation on expected Russian response - all based on fear mongering. Please remember not to accept stuff on the inter webs of such extreme level with out verification. The bots were out and continue to flow the information realm. Be discerning.
And they have no clue what idiots they come across as when they deny the obvious that EVERYONE can see.
Thanks Godzilla
Good observation...
Heads up. Saturday I don’t expect to have the time to produce a report.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
Fliers set out by the Washington chapter of 50501 appears to be calling for violent riots for June 14th.
OBSERVATION - For well over a year and having accelerated in the past 6 months, the radical left has ramped up justification of and calling for violent and even lethal riots against anything Trump. We see it as recently as this weekend with leftists celebrating and supporting the terror attack by Mohamed Sabry Soliman in Bolder CO.
Leftists are expressing support for the terrorist attack in Boulder, Colo. allegedly by an illegal migrant suspect who was given a work visa by the Biden administration after violating his tourist visa. The leftists say the civilians are fair game since they support Israel.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1929765309323661729?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Preparations by the left have continued relatively under the radar since the 2020 riots. Groups like the John Brown Gun Club and Redneck Revolt popped up and noted for their firearms training and community defense efforts. More recently, segments of the LGBT and trans community are taking an active role in this armed preparedness. Concerned about rising political hostility and violence, especially toward trans individuals, some have formed armed self-defense networks and mutual aid collectives. These groups often blend gun ownership with strong anti-fascist and anti-racist ideology, and they view preparation not just as political resistance, but as survival.
At this time, there is no shortage of politically and ideologically motivated individuals and groups out there chomping at the bit to start the revolution / intifada. These elements will likely be blended into a larger mass of protestors for cover and escape after executing their attacks. They are more willing than ever. We have to be ever vigilant.
Further thought - most recent terror and violence actions have been by anti-Israeli individuals and groups. If there are further (lethal) attacks, it will likely be under the banner of anti-Israel and pro-Hamas bleats. This seems to have gained greater traction among the left than even anti-deportation efforts.
***
(FO) Speaking at an economic summit, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon gave a global and U.S. outlook, which is worth watching. Here are two highlights: (My selection)
- THREAT WITHIN: “Then the biggest [threat is] the enemy within. I’m not as worried about China. China is a potential adversary; they’re doing a lot of things well, they have a lot of problems. What I really worry about is us. Can we get our own act together?”
- NATIONAL SECURITY: “We know what constitutes national security… We shouldn’t be stockpiling Bitcoin. We should be stockpiling guns, bullets, tanks, planes, drones, you know, rare earths. We know what we need to do. This is not a mystery… We should be stockpiling bullets. [I]f there’s a war in the South China Sea, we have missiles for seven days. Okay.”
OBSERVATION - Dimon being in charge of JPMorgan Chase gives him some credibility in some of his views, since it is his charter to keep the bank /investment juggernaut making money and having to look to the future. Concerns I noted above are internal strife and even a CW condition as well as our general unreadiness for a major conflict with China. Both of these can feed back into a CW2 scenario via mass disruptions / chaos that can ensue. Also, he touches on economic considerations that will potentially have significant impact in the future.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
Boulder CO terror follow up -
Paperwork with the word “USAID” was found in the car of Mohamed Sabry Soliman, who was accused of allegedly throwing the explosives at the attack in Boulder, Colorado.
According to Fox News, an arrest affidavit said that officials found the paperwork with other paperwork with the words “Israel” and “Palestine” in addition to a red gas container and rags.
“He specifically targeted the ‘Zionist Group’ that had gathered in Boulder having learned about the group from an online search,” the affidavit stated.
Authorities said that the suspect told law enforcement officials that he would conduct the attack again.
Mohammed Sabry Soliman has been charged by federal officials with 16 counts of attempted murder, hate crimes, and a list of other charges, officials said on June 2.
OBSERVATION - I said yesterday that he had planned an attack and current evidence shows that to be a fact. Also, indicators continue to indicate this was a lone wolf event.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
About 500 U.S. troops have withdrawn from Syria in recent weeks, two U.S. officials tell Fox News. Three U.S. bases have been either turned over to the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) or closed down. This includes Mission Support Site Green Village which has been shut down, and Mission Support Site Euphrates which has been handed over to the SDF. U.S. troops have also vacated from a third much smaller outpost.
https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1929575686164942987
***
Navy Secretary John Phelan visited Guam earlier this month and was “appalled” after seeing the conditions of an Air Force barracks where junior service members were living, prompting an ongoing Navy-wide inspection of more than 100,000 barracks units, according to a government watchdog and service officials.
Conditions included exposed wires, corroded plumbing and dilapidated walls splattered with paint to cover mold; after Phelan’s visit, more than 70 Marines and sailors were moved out of the Palau Hall barracks, a housing facility at Andersen Air Force Base. Another 77 airmen there are “in the process of being relocated” in anticipation of a $53 million renovation scheduled to start later this year, an Air Force spokesperson told Military.com on Friday.
OBSERVATION - This is a result of poor resource allocation - where DEI got funds and the troops got nothing. I saw residual similar conditions when I entered the Army, as Reagan’s military worked to improve base housing left neglected by Carter and previous presidents in a post Vietnam mind set.
***
Since the attack on Sunday, a defense official in a NATO country in Europe said that it has already led to discussions about whether allies need to reassess their own airbase vulnerabilities, specifically in cases where long-range military aircraft, such as B-52H Long-Range Strategic Bombers with the U.S. Air Force, are placed out in the open without adequate shelter or in most cases any cover at all. With many airbases in Europe still using Cold War-era “Christmas Tree” alert areas, which are totally open to attacks from drones, for visiting long-range bombers from the United States.
Samuel Bendett, an expert on Russian drones and other weapons at the Center for Naval Analysis, said “we are slowly coming around” to the threat posed by drones to airbases across the United States. Adding, “When it comes to large military bases that have a lot of aircraft parked on the tarmac, the lesson from the Ukrainian attack is that such a strike can potentially come at any moment. At this point, it’s unlikely that our bases feature comprehensive protection against short-range threats.”
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1929762369862807622?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - We’ve already had unidentified drones flying over sensitive facilities and military bases across the US. In the case of the US bomber force, parked in the open is a hold over from the cold war era treaties where both Russia (Soviet Union) and the US could verify dispositions.
Also, cue recent efforts to keep Chinese related front groups from purchasing land adjacent to / near US bases. Tactics of war are quickly changing and were are falling behind.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Doctors and residents across China continue to report more infections and deaths as the latest wave of COVID-19 continues, portraying a far more severe situation than the Chinese regime is letting on.
Schools in various provinces are reportedly suspending classes and placing students in quarantine, leading to growing concerns among the public of a return of lockdowns, according to information provided to the Chinese language version of The Epoch Times and on social media.
A “home quarantine notice”—issued by a primary school in Guangzhou and circulated by Chinese netizens on China’s TikTok equivalent, Douyin, before it was posted to social media platform X on May 26 before CCP censors could delete it—has attracted widespread attention.
OBSERVATION - wuhan, like all viruses, tends to mutate over time and can produce stronger variants as well as weaker ones. It is reports like this that caught my attention in 2019 when all eyes were on the impeachment proceeding of Trump. Since then, the wuhan mRNA jab has wreaked havoc on peoples immune systems making many more susceptible to these follow-on mutations. The marxist medical community elements - yes I went there - have been seeking some sort of a new medical alert to try to force citizens back into a ‘two weeks to break the curve’ mentality. Lately its been measles - a common childhood disease that is being overblown. Now a new wuhan strain. The medical community burned a lot of bridges in starting in 2020 and we will remain skeptical at this develops.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A senior official in President Donald Trump’s Justice Department told staff Monday that he has been directed to investigate clemency granted by Democrat Joe Biden in the waning days of his presidency to members of his family and death row inmates.
Ed Martin, the Justice Department’s pardon attorney, wrote in an email seen by Reuters that the investigation involves whether Biden “was competent and whether others were taking advantage of him through use of AutoPen or other means.”
The email stated that Martin’s investigation is focused on preemptive pardons Biden issued to several members of his family and clemency that spared 37 federal inmates from the death penalty, converting their sentences to life in prison. Just before he relinquished the presidency to Trump on Jan. 20, Biden pardoned five members of his family, saying he wanted to protect them from future politically motivated investigations.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/autopen-pardons-justice/2025/06/03/id/1213356/
OBSERVATION - The biggest scandal in US history and a potential constitutional crisis in my life time at least. If demonstrated biden had no knowledge or approval for the autopen to be used, the fight is on to reverse these pardons and open the door to potentially reversing many other auto penned EOs.
***
A recent CNN poll shows just 16% of Americans believe the Democratic Party has “strong leaders” while 40% believe the Republican Party does. Only 32% of Democrats believe their party has strong leaders.
Illegal Immigration –
ICE released a review of Operation Patriot, an intraservice effort throughout Massachusetts with the FBI, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the ATF, the U.S. Department of State’s Diplomatic Security Service, the U.S. Marshals Service and the U.S. Coast Guard during May. The services arrested 1,461 illegal aliens, more than half of whom had criminal records.
China -
(FO) The Chinese Commerce Ministry said the Trump administration has “seriously undermined” and “violated” the U.S.-China tariff truce by revoking visas for Chinese students and restricting semiconductor technology exports to China.
On Friday, President Trump accused China of violating the truce by delaying critical minerals exports to the United States. “What China is doing is they are holding back products that are essential for the industrial supply chains of India, of Europe, and that is not what a reliable partner does,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.
OBSERVATION - Expect these negotiations to be very much rough and tumble
North/South Korea –
Some 44.4 million South Korean’s are heading to the polls to cast ballots this Tuesday in a snap presidential election.
The vote was prompted when Yoon Suk Yeol was ousted for attempting to establish martial law in December.
Yoon’s archrival, left-leaning Lee Jae-myung is favored to win the vote. Conservative candidate Kim Moon Soo has failed to win over voters as his party spirals amid infighting.
OBSERVATION - Not good news as the left in SK is akin to the marxist left here in the US
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Kerch Bridge update –
Security Service of Ukraine reportedly has blown up pillar of Kerch Bridge with 1100kgs of explosives planted underwater
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 90s mostly clear with widely scattered thunderstorms.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Developing - Security Service of Ukraine claim to have blown up pillar of Kerch Bridge with 1100kgs of explosives planted underwater
During the night of June 2–3, Ukraine’s Air Defense neutralized 75 enemy drones, including Shahed-type UAVs, out of 112 launched by Russia from multiple directions (Kursk, Oryol, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and Crimea).
Russia targeted multiple Ukrainian cities. In Chernihiv, a private home burned down, a school, apartment building, and business were damaged—four people are hospitalized. In Odesa, several homes and infrastructure were hit, vehicles burned, and four people were injured. In Kharkiv region, a civilian facility was struck, destroying a postal terminal—one person was killed and another injured.
Ukraine launched a major drone attack, consisting of over 200 long-range attack drones, against Russian-occupied Crimea and Southwestern Russia.
Drone strikes are being reported tonight against power substations in both Russian-occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in Southeastern Ukraine, with major power outages having occurred as a result of the strikes
Russian losses per 03/06/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1100 men
+7 tanks
+8 AFVs
+48 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
Sumy -
ISW analysis indicates Russian forces appear to be intensifying efforts to widen the frontline in northern Sumy Oblast along three axes of advance north and northeast of Sumy City.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Andriyivka village of Sumy region of Ukraine
Summary —
Kerch Bridge first - Surveillance video does show a massive explosion ADJACENT to one of the bridge pillars and not the pillar itself. The spray of water and debris blocks view of the pillar and whether or not it was significantly damaged by the explosion. Over one ton of explosives can do significant damage and Russian sources have been very tight lipped about the extent of any damage. Further engineering studies are necessary to gauge the damage and that would be forthright any time soon. If the damage is significant enough, it will force Russia to limit use of the bridge at a time when efforts are to increase pressure against Ukraine along the southern front.
Along with this is the fact that an Ukrainian demolition team was able to get to the bridge, plant the explosives and exit without detection is a serious slap to the face of Russian security of the Bridge.
Growing evidence of a developing push in the Sumy region. So far the penetration seems to be in the 10 - 15 km range and reportedly not reaching the first lines of major defense of Sumy. Russia appears to be pushing in the Kharkiv sector as well.
Russia’ response to the drone attack is still speculative. OSINT folks using commercial satellite imagery indicate that clearly as many as 15 airframes were destroyed or seriously damaged. This analysis is limited by the resolution of the photos which may miss minor, though crippling damages on other aircraft. Remember, Ukraine has videos of every impact from FPVs sets.
Loss of active / functioning bombers places stress on the rest of the fleet, many airframes are nothing but hangar queens and not airworthy, but included in the count of Russian bombers.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Trump and Netanyahu talk after Iranian rejection of proposal.
- IDF expands Gaza operations
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Global news services favorable to Hamas continue to spread the story that Israel attacked civilians at a food distribution site, even though it was repudiated and even the BBC had to issue a retraction.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Israeli army orders Palestinians in a new area of southern Gaza’s Khan Younis to evacuate, as the military expands its ground offensive against Hamas
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Israeli army: A missile fired from Yemen was intercepted.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
WFP: We call for more food aid to be allowed into Gaza and distributed quickly.
OBSERVATION - By this stage in the game, it is pretty clear such UN related food ‘distribution’ is nothing but a ploy to support Hamas and not Gazans.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
No real hostage / ceasefire talks to speak of has allowed Israel to put the petal to the metal in Gaza.
Looks like action against Iran may be in the offing (again). See below.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.
Iran rejected a U.S. proposal to end a decades-old nuclear dispute. This sets up a game of Chicken with Iran calling Trump’s bluff.
Reuters is reporting that according to an Iranian diplomat attached to the talks, Iran may be ready to walk away from the table and call Donald Trump’s bluff.
Following this rejection it has been reported that Trump spoke with Netanyahu.
Associated with this rejection was misinformation from an Axios report the administration proposed allowing Iran limited low-level uranium enrichment “for civilian purposes,” President Trump issued a statement of his own. Basially Trump said not only no but hell no to Axios claim.
OBSERVATION - Once again we are poised on the edge of a an attack on Iran’s nuclear program. Recent IAEA reports combined with Iranian refusal to essentially negotiate has left the US / Israeli coalition with few other choices other than to strike militarily. Especially in the view that Iran as accelerated its enrichment program and cold soon have nuclear grade uranium (if it doesn’t already possess some already).
Again, time to fish or cut bait.
Black Swans -
News Nation journalist Ross Coulthart claims that an apocalyptic event will happen in 2027: “Everybody’s telling me we’re on borrowed time”
“I cannot begin to emphasize how serious a look I get… They’re saying to me, ‘People have a right to know this’…
They are all constrained by their national security oaths. They want the public to know.”
So what is it?
Ross Coulthart says that his contacts inside the government cannot tell him without breaking their oaths, but apparently it is something really big.
During the interview, Coulthart speculated that it could be “a pole reversal” or “an asteroid hitting the planet”…
https://endoftheamericandream.com/is-an-extinction-level-event-coming-in-2027-or-even-sooner/
OBSERVATION - Nefarious doom prophet Michael Snyder posted this article to help sales of his latest book. Coulthart prediction lacks concrete evidence. Tied deeply is an alien connection. While this ‘story’ has spread across the interwebs over the past few days, I urge great skepticism. Snyder has a very poor track record of his claims being validated and relying on an equally poor source doesn’t help his credibility either, and is just an effort to boost book sales.