Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
For historical reference TM2024 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah
I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
This mornings report seems relatively tame, there are a lot of moving parts that will come to the surface likely later in the week.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Rep. Jasmine Crockett uploaded a disturbing and demented video that depicts her and Rep. AOC physically beating Republican voters to death with their hands as they punch and feet as they stomp on her instagram.
https://x.com/dom_lucre/status/1898871331065864623
OBSERVATION - Leftist mouthpieces continue to ramp up rhetoric and desires to have fellow leftists commit acts of violence for political gain. These calls for violence continue to grow in number almost daily.
***
Weekend protests were the most violent against Tesla dealership with many reports of vandalism coming in.
***
A prominent Palestinian activist who helped lead Columbia University’s student encampment movement was arrested Saturday night by federal immigration authorities who claimed they were acting on a State Department order to revoke his green card, according to his attorney.
Mahmoud Khalil was at his university-owned apartment blocks from Columbia’s Manhattan campus when several Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents entered the building and took him into custody, his attorney, Amy Greer, told The Associated Press.
One of the agents told Greer by phone that they were executing a State Department order to revoke Khalil’s student visa. Informed by the attorney that Khalil, who graduated in December, was in the United States as a permanent resident with a green card, the agent said they were revoking that, too, according to the lawyer.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/columbia-university-mahmoud-khalil-ice/2025/03/09/id/1202075/
OBSERVATION - To provide the biggest bang, arrests and deportations like this need to increase. For too long, trouble makers like this have been allowed to roam free to incite trouble.
RELATED - Protests are brewing as outrage spreads over the administration finally starting to deport Hamxs supporter Mahmoud Khalil, leader of the Colombia protests. This has potential for violence and vandalism on the campus and it may well spill off campus.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
Secret Service shot a man near the White House last night after he “brandished a firearm” and an “armed confrontation ensued.” They had been made aware by local police that this man was suicidal and traveling to DC from Indiana, and appear to have first noticed his car parked near the WH before they saw him.
As officers approached, the individual brandished a firearm, and an armed confrontation ensued, during which shots were fired by our personnel.” - Secret Service statement.
The suspect was transported to hospital and his condition is unknown.
***
Over the last 48 hours, F-16 jets have twice intercepted general aviation planes in close proximity to President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
The Fed is holding off discussion on rates to evaluate the impacts that the tariffs may have on the economy. This has made the markets nervous and more volatile last week.
Some financial analysts are warning that the unstable economy Trump inherited from biden may slip into a recession later this year. It is transitioning off being fed by overspending govt actions back to corporate growth as well as other uncertainties.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Growing arm waving concerning a growth in measles in the US. In some rare instances it can be fatal, but of just a couple generations ago it was one of the nuisance diseases like chicken pox and mumps.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
The massive amounts of waste and fraud DOGE has uncovered have dulled the senses of Americans I think. The amounts and the brazenness of the actions are just beyond the pale. What needs to happen is having people arrested for these crimes.
Illegal Immigration –
See ICE starting to arrest foreign campus agitators and deporting them above in CW2.
North/South Korea –
Reports that NK fired short range missiles into the Sea of Japan overnight.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 50s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched a shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 176 launched, 130 were shot down and 42 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 10/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1190 men
+18 tanks
+40 AFVs
+65 artillery pieces
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
+138 service vehicles
Drones struck an oil refinery in Novokuybyshevsk, Samara region, according to Russian media. Earlier, local authorities had warned of possible drone attacks in the area. The refinery is the largest in Samara’s Rosneft group, with a processing capacity of over 8.8 million tons of oil per year.
Summary —
A lot of tanks and APCs lost overnight, but an uncharacteristic low number of personnel losses. Likely due to fog of war conditions.
Ukraine is seeing Kursk slip away as Russian forces continue their renewed attacks (possible reflected in tanks / APC losses). The turmoil over loss of US support does appear to be trickling down to the front lines, made worse by Europe’s clown circus efforts to backfill lost support. Ukraine says they have 6-12 months worth of supplies on hand, but that number is being questioned.
A sense of growing desperation may accelerate an attempt to remove the Kersh Strait bridge. Third times a charm.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania’s electoral commission on Sunday banned the candidacy of far-right politician Calin Georgescu for the upcoming presidential elections.
The electoral bureau said in a statement that it had adopted “the rejection of the registration of the independent candidacy” of Georgescu without providing any details justifying the move.
Georgescu had been leading in opinion polls with around 40% of the vote. He is expected to appeal the decision to exclude him from the election.
OBSERVATION - The last election was invalidated by the EU (what?) and Georgescu is seen as friendly towards Russia.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hostage negotiations remain in spotlight.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Words that US went over the head of Israel to have hostage talks with Hamas and didn’t inform them. US reportedly admitted that this was wrong and will redouble efforts to work with Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israeli Energy Minister and Cabinet member Eli Cohen has now signed an order to halts its electricity supply, which will be implemented immediately.
The desalination facilities in the Gaza Strip are powered by Israeli electricity, so the move may actually harm the water supply.
Word is that Israel may soon cut off freshwater deliveries as well.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to be active in Samaria.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Continuing to hold in that gray zone, waiting for the other shoe to fall on Gaza and Iran. Hamas is endeavoring to draw out negotiations for a long as it can to inflict psychological damage on the psyche of Israel. But that time is running out.
Israel putting the screws to the remaining population via power cut off and loss of water. The international community will be up in arms in short manner, but these actions will be mild in comparison to when Israel restarts the ground war.
Thanks, Godzilla.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Protests are growing in NY opposing the arrest and pending deportation of Mahmoud Khalil, currently in an ICE facility in Louisiana. Overnight, protestors took to the streets, blocking traffic and singling out Tesla owners for violence.
Speaking on Tesla violence, more attacks are occurring at dealerships across the country.
OBSERVATION - Khalil seems to be the potential catalyst for larger scale leftist protest in the near term. How much violence is yet to be seen.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
A three-week market sell-off intensified on Monday, with investors worried that tariff policy uncertainty would tip the economy into a recession, something President Donald Trump did not rule out over the weekend in an interview.
The S&P 500 shed 2.7%, touching its lowest level since September at one point and closing at 5,614.56. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite saw the biggest selling of the major averages, falling 4% for its worst session since September 2022 and closing at 17,468.32. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 890.01 points, or 2.08%, ending at 41,911.71.
CNBC
RELATED -
(FO) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there will be a “detox period” as the Trump administration shifts economic growth from public spending to the private sector.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Trump administration economic policies will lead to a “three or four percent growth” in U.S. GDP, and the Trump administration is attempting a pivot to increasing manufacturing jobs while reducing government employment
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - I’ve noted the US economy has been in a precarious position for much of the past four years - following the wuhan lockdowns. The Fed’s printing of money, overinflated the markets has created a massive bubble and Trumps effort to rebalance and reenergize the economy has the potential to cause a strong correction. Short term we could see the Dow enter correction levels of losses. Longer term depends on other factors in the economy.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024
Dark Storm has claimed they carried out a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack on 𝕏. Dark Storm, better described as a left-of-center hacktivist group, has taken responsibility for/made claims of past actions against critical civilian infrastructure and government websites, citing the United States’ support for Israel as the main motivator for their actions. Their history suggests geopolitical motives, and they have expressed support for Hamas.
Musk indicated that the attack came via Ukraine.
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. State Department Launches AI based “Catch and Revoke” Visa Crackdown
The State Department is canceling visas of foreign students deemed “pro-Hamxs”, using AI to scan social media and reviewing arrests linked to 10/7 protests. - Axios
***
A judge has blocked the possible deportation of a Palestinian man who co-leads a radical group in NYC allied to Hamas. The Columbia University Apartheid Divest group said it supports killing people and even terrorist attacks
A Federal Judge in New York City has halted the deportation of Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian activist known for organizing last year’s occupation at Columbia University in support of Hamas, while the Court considers a lawsuit challenging the legality of the revocation of his Legal Permanent Resident Status and his arrest Saturday by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The first hearing in the case is scheduled for Wednesday at 11:30am in Lower Manhattan.
OBSERVATION - the NY Judge is treading on very thin ice. The law is very clear that green card holders are NOT exempt from deportation and loss of that card when they participate in illegal activities. That card is a privilege and is not a substitute for citizenship. If he attempts to force the issue anyway, it is very likely he’ll be struck down on appeal (which should never have to be the case IF these activist judges actually followed the law). This is the hill illegal supporters are apparently looking to die on and it likely will not end well for them.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 70s range.
Ukraine and US negotiators are meeting in Saudi Arabia to work out positions for the potential cease fire and eventual peace talks with Russia. Reportedly Zelensky sent a letter to the US delegation apologizing for the blow up at the WH last month.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another large Russian drone and missile attack overnight. Out of 126 Shahed drones, 79 were shot down and 35 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
A single launched Iskander-M ballistic missile was shot down.
Russian losses per 11/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1300 men
+11 tanks
+23 AFVs
+75 artillery pieces
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system
+134 service vehicles
Tonight’s Ukrainian drone attack against Moscow is the first attack by Ukraine against the Russian capital in 2025, and likely the largest since the large-scale drone attack against the city in September of 2024, which consisted of well over 140 drones targeting Moscow.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims 337 drones were shot down
Overnight, Ukrainian drones also struck the “Stalny Kon” oil depot in Oryol and the Dyagilevo airfield near Ryazan. Consequences are still being clarified but fires could be seen.
The Shebekino-based company ZAO “Kraski” has been billowing smoke across the region since early morning.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that at least 60 drones were intercepted and destroyed before breaching the city’s defenses.
Ukraine claims drone strikes at the Moscow Oil refinery and Stalnoy Kon (Steel Horse) oil depot in Oryol region
Kursk Front -
Attacks by Russia are down by 2/3s from the trend of last week, suggesting that the counter offensive is about at its end.
Summary —
I’ll bet Russia will launch a major retaliatory cruise and ballistic missile strike within the next 48 hours.
On the ground, Kursk was the most active sector over the past week but overnight’s activity has shown a significant decline.
Ukraine is still in a precarious position with the loss of not only US material support, but intelligence as well. France is attempting to fill the gap, but doesn’t have the tactical oriented assets the US has access to.
Poland –
(FO) Polish Prime Minister Tusk told his parliament on Friday that they needed to “pursue the most modern capabilities related to nuclear weapons,” consider leaving an international anti-personnel mine ban, and train every adult male for war.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IAF launched massive airstrikes in S Syria.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Qatar confirms that Hamas rejected the “partial solutions” presented in an initial conversation by Trump envoy Adam Boehler.
During the talks, Hamas proposed an agreement that included a decade-long ceasefire and refused to give up weapons.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
In the most extensive Israeli airstrike in Syria in over two months, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out dozens of attacks from Monday night into early Tuesday, striking military sites affiliated with Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s regime. According to the IDF, the strikes in southern Syria targeted radar installations, aerial detection systems, and military headquarters, as well as weapons depots and other military infrastructure used by the new regime.
The IDF stated that “the presence of these systems in southern Syria poses a threat to Israel and to IDF operations. These targets were struck to eliminate future threats.” The wave of strikes marks the most significant Israeli military action in Syria in recent months, as Israel seeks to counter the growing military presence of the new regime.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h1wacu6jjg#autoplay
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis threaten to renew attacks on Israel today if Gaza aid is not resumed, N12 News reports
IDF elevates readiness for renewed missile & drone attacks from Yemen; air defenses are on alert, including Arrow, Maariv Online reports. After a long pause, sirens may be activated again in Israel’s cities this week.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Waiting for the Gaza and Iranian strikes. Hamas continues to try to extend based upon threats to the lives of the remaining hostages to coerce Israeli public opinion into submitting to their demands. Both Trump and Netanyahu have indicated that there is a final deadline after which Israel will drop the hammer. When that date is is not known but one likely possibly is after Ramadan, and Hamas will wake up to the massive April Fools strike of the war. Similar for Iran. Attacking during Ramadan (and around Passover) not good for keeping arabs pacified and civilians engaged in the support for the war.
Truce agreements between the Druze and the Syrian govt are interesting development. I’m not sure the druze community is monolithic in support of the agreement. Israel had offered to open up Druze workers coming into Israel - now that may be on hold. No matter what, Israel will still maintain a military presence in the former buffer zone and maintain contact with the Druze to keep them favorably inclined.
Syria -
Kurdish-led, US-backed SDF agrees to integrate into Syrian state institutions.
Under the deal:
-The Syrian government will take over control of borders, airports, and oil and gas fields in northeastern Syria
-The Kurdish community is guaranteed Syrian citizenship
-ceasefire in all Syrian territories
In the signed agreement, SDF demands in part that all Turkish forces be expelled from Syria.
HTS demands are handing over 10K ISIS prisoners and expel PKK from the country.
Al Jazeera report: After yesterday’s agreement with the Kurds, the new regime in Syria has reached agreements with the Druze in the country regarding their integration into the state systems and security services.
If true, this will mean an Israeli presence in southern Syria and at the top of Mt. Hermon for an indefinite period.
NOTE - SDF is allies with the US in counter ISIS operations in northern and eastern Syria.
***
Hezbollah affiliates have joined the fight against HTS. This is on the Lebanon -Syria border near Tartus.
***
It is estimated that over 7,000 Christians and Alawites have been murdered in Syria in the last two days.
Thanks Godzilla.
Week is transitioning to be very busy
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Columbia University refuses to help the US Department of Homeland Security in identifying students who have been linked to pro-Hamas activities on campus, the White House stated on Tuesday, according to JNS.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt revealed that DHS has compiled a list of individuals believed to be in violation of US President Donald Trump’s executive order aimed at combating antisemitism.
“They have been using intelligence to identify individuals on our nation’s colleges and universities—on our college campuses—who have engaged in such behavior and activity, and especially illegal activity,” Leavitt told reporters.
“I don’t have a readout on how many arrests will come, but I do know that DHS is actively working on it,” she continued. “I also know that Columbia University has been given the names of other individuals, who have engaged in pro-Hamas activity, and they are refusing to help DHS identify those individuals on campus.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/405231
RELATED -
College students in New York held various walkouts today so they would be free to spend the day protesting on behalf of pro-Hamas organizer Mamoud Khalil. It then became a gathering in Washington Square Park. The NY Post says there were about 350 people.
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/03/11/a-dozen-arrests-made-at-the-latest-free-khalil-march-n3800671
About 12 were arrested
OBSERVATION - Some observers are indicting that these protests are growing in violence potential.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
Trump says violence against Tesla dealerships will be labeled as domestic terrorism - Reuters
Also note that Tesla owners are increasingly becoming targets of violence and vandalism, not just dealerships.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
Egg prices now below pre-Trump levels
Pre-Jan. 20, 2025: $6.12/dozen
March 10, 2025: $6.08/dozen
Previously, economic analysts projected that egg prices would rise by 41% in 2025, further fueling concerns.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Yesterday Science Alert reported that an outbreak in the USA of tuberculosis (“TB”) began in January 2024 in Kansas City, Kansas, and two nearby counties. To date, 147 people have been diagnosed with TB with 67 becoming ill.
TB is always present in our environment but people only become ill with TB when their immune systems are weakened or damaged.
What could cause people’s immune systems to weaken so latent infections become active? Covid “vaccines,” for one. We have published numerous articles over the years about the detrimental effect the covid injections have on our immune systems, highlighting indications that the “vaccines” are causing vaccine-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (“VAIDS”). Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (“AIDS”) is used to describe several potentially life-threatening infections and illnesses that happen when your immune system has been severely damaged. People with AIDS have an increased risk of developing certain cancers and serious infections that usually occur only in people with a weak immune system. Infections that would otherwise be mild in those with healthy, working immune systems.
https://expose-news.com/2025/03/11/tb-has-reappeared-in-the-us-why/
OBSERVATION - Many scientists now revealing that wuhan jab mRNA is the culprit. In the past, TB cases were also directly related to illegals who crossed into the US, bringing the disease with them. Now we could be seeing the combination of the two.
More and more evidence indicates that the mRNA jab was designed to attack humans, not stop the wuhan virus.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
The Republican-led House voted Tuesday to pass a six-month funding bill that would prevent a government shutdown at the end of the week, overcoming fierce Democratic objections.
The vote was 217-213, with all Republicans but Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky supporting the continuing resolution. One Democrat, Rep. Jared Golden of Maine, voted for it.
Now the senate has it and republicans need democrat crossovers to pass. Democrats continue to threaten to vote against it and for a govt shut down.
***
A senior official at the U.S. Agency for International Development instructed the agency’s remaining staff on Tuesday to pull classified and personal documents from safes and shred and burn them, according to an email verified by The New York Times.
“Shred as many documents first, and reserve the burn bags for when the shredder becomes unavailable or needs a break,” read the email written by acting USAID executive secretary Erica Y. Carr.
The Times reported it is unclear if Carr got permission from the National Archives and Records Administration to destroy the documents. The Federal Records Act of 1950 mandates government workers obtain approval from NARA before destroying documents.
USAID, which has a long tradition of operating front organizations on behalf of the CIA, could have documents pertaining to national intelligence, as well as documents from court cases filed against the Trump administration.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/usaid-nara-erica-carr/2025/03/11/id/1202400/
Anna Kelly, a spokesperson for the White House, downplayed such concerns in a social media post late Tuesday.
“This was sent to roughly three dozen employees,” Kelly wrote. “The documents involved were old, mostly courtesy content (content from other agencies), and the originals still exist on classified computer systems. More fake news hysteria!”
OBSERVATION - Just what the heck is the story here? Very suspicious actions to say the least.
***
Department of Education staff will receive “reduction in force” notices Tuesday before nearly half of the department’s workforce is terminated, Fox News Digital has learned.
Earlier Tuesday, a memo was sent to all Education Department employees informing them that Department of Education offices will be closed Tuesday evening through Wednesday due to “security reasons.” Employees were instructed to leave the offices by 6 p.m. ET Tuesday.
“Today’s reduction in force reflects the Department of Education’s commitment to efficiency, accountability, and ensuring that resources are directed where they matter most: to students, parents, and teachers,” Education Secretary Linda McMahon said in a statement
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nearly-half-department-education-staff-set-eliminated-imminently
***
The US House just EXTENDED the statute of limitations for people who committed COVID fraud, allowing those who stole COVID relief funds to continue to be prosecuted. 295/127
***
Oversight Committee discovered that Biden’s “pardons” had all have the same autopen signature:
- Biden Family Members
- Anthony Fauci
- General Milley
- J6 Committee
- Gerald Lundergan
The key issue is whether Biden was aware of and approved the documents signed in his name using the autopen.
https://x.com/immeme0/status/1899617775812837639?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
OBSERVATION - Follow-on to the Missouri AG lawsuit into the matter as well.
Just WHO was actually running the WH.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Well, that didn’t take too long. The Canadian province of Ontario has backed down after threatening to levy a surcharge on electricity to three U.S. states as President Donald Trump threatened to double the tariff he has already placed on Canadian goods.
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/jeff-charles/2025/03/11/canada-bows-to-trump-in-tariff-war-n2653640
OBSERVATION - 50% Tariff threat got his attention. Reportedly Canada has a GDP smaller than TX, they are trying to punch way over their weight in this matter.
***
Trump administration across-the-board 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports went into effect overnight. The new tariffs will remove exemptions to previous 25% steel tariffs.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump’s selection of a Tesla car at the WH is causing liberal heads to explode, especially when they forgot that biden pulled a stunt with Jeep.
Illegal Immigration –
The number of illegal U.S.-bound migrants passing through the dangerous Darién jungle plummeted by nearly 99 percent during the month of February 2025 when compared to February 2024, Panama’s Migrant Authority revealed this week.
In its most recently published statistical report, Panama’s Migrant Authority indicated that it recorded a total of 408 migrants passing through the Darién Gap during February 2025 — an amount that represents a 98.9-percent drop from the total of 37,166 migrants logged during February 2024. Similarly, February 2025’s statistics indicate a 81.68 percent reduction in the number of migrants when compared to the 2,229 migrants recorded by the Authority during January 2025.
OBSERVATION - Headwaters for much illegal traffic is shutting down. Good news in the long term for border security and reduced crossings.
NGO’s that once were receiving US $$$ to help these illegals thru this section being shut down has likely also contributed.
Russia -
The Kremlin: No date or venue for the talks between Presidents Putin and Trump has yet been determined.
The Kremlin: There is no need to rush Russia’s response to the 30-day truce proposal in Ukraine.
***
Bloomberg reported on March 11 that Western security officials stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has “no intention” of making compromises on territory, peacekeepers, or Ukrainian neutrality and that Putin is prepared to continue fighting if he doesn’t achieve his objectives in his war in Ukraine.
The officials stated that Putin has deliberately made “maximalist” demands, knowing that Ukraine and Europe would likely find these demands unacceptable. Western security officials’ reports of the Kremlin’s intention to achieve its “maximalist” goals in Ukraine are consistent with Putin’s and other Russian officials’ public statements, even as the Kremlin has attempted to posture itself as open to negotiations and ending the war.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1899630514727948745?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
OBSERVATIONS - Trump has attained his desired capitulation from Ukraine, now must face a much more obstinate putin. I’ve noted that putin is not so invulnerable as his propaganda puts out. There are many economic tools Trump has at his disposal that can put serious hurt on Russia’s economy.
There are also military related options via Ukraine such as clearing the way for the destruction of the Kerch Bridge - though that runs contra to his stated goal for non-military solutions. This next month may become very interesting to see just how Trump is able to force putin to the table.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 70s range.
RUMINT – Kursk operation is coming to an end? Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine forces have begun a pullout.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine has accepted the 30 day ceasefire proposal, now waiting on Russia.
The Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine confirmed that U.S. military assistance has already been resumed.
Ukraine’s Air Force conducted operations against missiles and drones overnight. Out of 133 Shahed drones, 98 were shot down and another 20 were lost in location, likely suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russia also launched 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. No results were reported on this particular attack.
At least one Russian ballistic missile hit the Barbados-flagged MJ Pinar this evening in Odessa, killing four of its crew, three Syrians and one Ukrainian.
Russian losses per 12/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1430 men
+3 tanks
+7 AFVs
+44 artillery pieces
+1 MLRS
+69 service vehicles
Summary —
Casuality uptick may reflect delayed reporting from Kursk. Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine may be working to withdraw from Kursk are circulating. It is known that the recent Russian counterattack managed to threaten Ukraine supply lines. It is also uncertain to what degree the Ukraine acceptance of the Trump 30 day ceasefire has had.
Rough night for Ukraine air defenses as an unusual number of Shaheds got thru. This is also the second ballistic missile strike on the Odesa seaport.
If being forced back, and given putin’s continued statements of reluctance to stop the war, the excess forces used in Kursk could be shifted to the south and throw into the Donbas efforts at Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. Ukraine forces coming out may need time to refit and re-arm before being committed back to the front lines. This could threaten a localized collapse of the Ukraine defense.
Europe / NATO General –
The captain of the Solong cargo ship arrested after a collision with a tanker in the North Sea is a Russian national, the ship’s owner has confirmed.
Humberside Police said the 59-year-old man remained in custody after being arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter on Tuesday.
The Portuguese-flagged Solong and the US-registered tanker Stena Immaculate crashed off the East Yorkshire coast at about 10:00 GMT on Monday.
Whitehall sources have told the BBC there were Russians and Filipinos among the crew of the Solong.
The BBC understands all of the crew on board the Stena Immaculate are Americans who are currently in Grimsby and will be repatriated in due course.
The Stena Immaculate was carrying 220,000 barrels of aviation fuel to be used by the US military.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c30mj5gq9d5o
OBSERVATION - Latest news is that the arrested man was the captain of there Solong - a Russian national. Stong suspicion that this was an asymmetrical ‘attack’ on the US and Europe.
Investigation by the BBC at link below shows there Sterna at anchor with other tankers - in a designated area commonly used. The Solong is tracked coming out of the northwest and doesn’t slow and maneuver thru the anchored ships like others have before it, but heads straight into the flank of the Sterna. Looks VERY deliberate.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-67181505
***
The nine judges of the Constitutional Court unanimously rejected on Tuesday the appeal filed by Călin Georgescu, upholding the decision of the Central Electoral Bureau to invalidate his candidacy in the presidential elections in May.
***
Macron has called on military leaders from 30 countries to plan security guarantees for Ukraine after a “peace deal” is reached. He also backed the 30-day ceasefire and progress in Ukraine-U.S. negotiations.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Back and forth on hostages and cease fire extension.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel, Lebanon agree to start negotiations to resolve disputes over their land borders
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli military leaders reconfirm to protect Druze populations in S Syria.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Rumored US airstrike on key Houthi radar site. No details or confirmation.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Things relatively quiet, but can break out at any moment. Right now, Hamas’ refusal to compromise on anything is dooming them to resumed fighting in the near future. Again, my best guess is after Ramadan / Passover time frame.
Watching the Houthis to see if they are going to carry out their threat to resume attacks against Red Sea shipping. I see the Trump administration more willing to strike back and strike back harder should they do.
Iran –
Iranian President Pezeshkian to Trump: “I won’t negotiate with you under threats. Do whatever the hell you want.”
FAFO moment inbound
Syria -
Under the cover of recent announced agreements with the Kurdish SDF and Druze, the slaughter of Christians, Alawites and other minorities continue to be conducted by Syrian HTS affiliated militias.
Turkey –
Turkish Defense Ministry: Our operations continue in northeastern Syria against Kurdish militias.
OBSERVATION - Openly, Turkey is pointing to the PKK elements, however, they consider ALL Kurds to be terrorists. May have to see what the new Syrian agreement with the Kurds have to say.
The Chinese must have paid someone in DC the 'big bucks' to to this much forced damage to American citizens...
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Corrupt U.S. District Judge Tanya S. Chutkan has unleashed a legal assault on Elon Musk and the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), greenlighting a fishing expedition that threatens to expose DOGE employees to the wrath of left-wing bureaucrats.
On Tuesday, radical left Judge Tanya Chutkan, a disgustingly dishonest Trump-hater who believes she was elected to lead this country and take down Trump, issued an order today in State of New Mexico, et al. v. Elon Musk, et al. that demands Musk and DOGE cough up sensitive documents and data within a mere 21 days—all to appease a coalition of Democrat-led states desperate to undermine President Trump’s agenda.
Chutkan’s order mandates that DOGE disclose sensitive information and internal documents concerning employees, contracts, and federal engagements directly linked with states participating in the lawsuit.
“Again, subject to a minor amendment, Plaintiffs have sufficiently tailored their interrogatories and requests for admission as well. Those requests seek to identify DOGE personnel and the parameters of DOGE’s and Musk’s authority- a question central to Plaintiffs’ claims,” Chutkan wrote.
This decision dangerously opens the door for politically motivated activists and partisan actors to weaponize personal information against private citizens simply doing their jobs.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/03/judicial-tyranny-radical-judge-tanya-chutkan-orders-doxing/
OBSERVATION - Placing this here under CW2 because it is a direct attack on a legitimate executive branch function by an already outed activist judge. As the article notes, the biggest threat by far is doxxing of the DOGE team and exposing them to the many who have been calling for violence against their efforts.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
Trump to reinstate his ban on immigrant travelers to the U.S. from high-risk Muslim nations, including: Somalia, Iran, Libya, Syria, Sudan, Pakistan, Yemen and Afghanistan
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
Despite fears over trade wars and tariffs, inflation was relatively stable during the first full month of the Trump administration in February.
According to the consumer price index, prices for goods and services increased by 0.2% during February, resulting in a 2.8% year-over-year increase in the CPI.
The CPI weighs the costs of goods based on their importance, with items such as food, shelter, and energy typically weighted more heavily.
February’s inflation rate was lower than in January 2025, which recorded the largest month-over-month increase in the CPI since August 2023. Consumers paid 0.5% more for goods and services in January compared to the previous month.
***
American gas prices have hit their lowest since March 2021, according to GasBuddy
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
More troops, including Fort Riley soldiers, will deploy soon to the U.S.-Mexico border, Army officials have announced.
Under the direction of U.S. Northern Command, additional active-duty military members will soon deploy “to enhance Department of Homeland Security and Customs and Border Protection efforts to maintain security at the southern border,” officials said in a statement last week.
Approximately 2,400 soldiers from elements of the 2nd Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, from Fort Carson, Colorado. Tasks carried out by 2nd SBCT will include detection and monitoring; administrative support; transportation support; warehousing and logistic support; vehicle maintenance; and engineering support. Personnel will not conduct or be involved in interdiction or deportation operations.
Approximately 500 soldiers from the 3rd Combat Aviation Brigade from Fort Stewart, Georgia, will provide a general support aviation battalion to assist in the movement of personnel, equipment, and supplies; and provide aerial medical evacuation capabilities.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
On Wednesday, New York Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer announced that Senate Democrats will oppose the House-approved Continuing Resolution (CR) bill — potentially triggering a government shutdown by the week’s end.
The President Donald Trump-backed bill requires Democrat support to pass in the Senate, as the funding bill requires at least 60 votes to pass.
Schumer (D-N.Y.) warned that the Democrats are refusing to vote in favor of the bill since Republicans “left” their counterpart out of negotiations.
“Funding the government should be a bipartisan effort, but Republicans chose a partisan path drafting their continuing resolution without any input — any input — from congressional Democrats,” Schumer stated on Wednesday.
With 53 Republicans in the Senate, they would need at least seven Democrats to support the bill for it to pass. However, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky) has already announced his intention to vote against it.
“The bill we are going to have to face this week will be continuing spending at the same level,” Paul stated during a Wednesday appearance on The Hill. “These are the Biden spending levels.”
OBSERVATION - Can’t say just how hypocritical Schumer is on this. Democrats routinely keep republican input to zero or bare minimum in the past. Democrats will own this shutdown.
Paul may have a point on the continuation of some of the spending levels (biden era - more Schumer hypocrisy ), but because McConnell screwed the republicans over and didn’t get those additional seats, much of this CR retains some of these spending items - in an effort to gain democrat votes(?)
Anyway, expect to see just how non-essential much of the govt is by the end of the week.
Russia -
*****
US officials have landed in Moscow to discuss a potential ceasefire with Ukraine.
Special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived on Thursday morning to try to convince Russia to accept a 30-day ceasefire, which Ukraine agreed to earlier this week in talks with the US.
Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said talks were planned with the US, but added: “Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’ll tell you about them later.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpv4729jvm9o
***
Reuters report: Russia has presented the United States with the basic conditions for entering peace talks with Ukraine - abandoning Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO, not stationing foreign troops in Ukraine after the war, and international recognition of Russia’s sovereignty over the Crimean peninsula and the four regions of Ukraine occupied in the war. The conditions were conveyed in meetings between Russia and the United States in the past three weeks, even before the announcement this week of the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. It is unclear whether Russia will agree to move forward in the peace process without ensuring these three conditions are met.
OBSERVATION - Russia maintaining a very hard line as far as its demands on US/Ukraine ceasefire and eventual peace agreement.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 70s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force repelled another Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 117 launched, 74 were shot down and another 38 were lost in location, presumably due to suppression by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 13/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1200 men
+1 tank
+2 AFVs
+19 artillery systems
+81 service vehicles
Ukrainian intelligence drones struck a hidden UAV production site in Russia’s Kaluga region. The attack targeted a drone assembly facility in Obukhovo, located within the “Kaluga Gas Concrete” plant.
In Moscow—the CHP-16 (Mosenergo) power station has unexpectedly caught fire. The cause of the fire is still unknown.
Kursk Front -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full control of Sudzha, Podol and Melovoy villages in Kursk region
Summary —
Kursk has collapsed for Ukraine with the loss of Sudzha. Yesterday’s RUMINT is today’s fact. Ukraine lost about half of the remaining territory it held in Kursk. How much longer it can sustain operations there is unknown, but the withdrawal has shortened supply lines and tightened the remaining salient.
Russia continues to push its demands as the only ones allowable. Rumblings from Trump indicate that he is willing to move forward with economic sanctions to the degree of hurt to Russia that they haven’t experienced before.
As long as Russia thinks it has a chance for success at the battle front, it will not come to any negotiations.
Poland –
Polish President Andrzej Duda has called on the US to deploy nuclear weapons in Poland to deter Russian aggression. He said Trump could move US warheads from Western Europe or the US—a proposal he recently discussed with US special envoy Keith Kellogg.
ISRAEL –
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Indicators that Hezbollah has lost a lot of clout in Lebanon politically. Seen in diplomatic outreaches between Lebanon and Israel to resolve border issues.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli Air Force targeted a Palestinian Islamic Jihad site in the Syrian capital, Damascus.
***
Israel has delivered some 10,000 packages of humanitarian aid to Syrian Druze in southern Syria over the past few weeks, the Foreign Ministry says. The packages include basic food items. Most of the deliveries were sent to the Suwayda area, and some to villages near the Israeli border
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The Israeli army conducted several counterterrorism operations in the West Bank last night, the military announced on Wednesday
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Still in a tentative ‘calm’ before the storm. Hostage negotiations do not seem to be going anywhere. Will Israel wait before the end of Ramadan to stoke Hamas? Makes sense in a few ways.
Same wait on dealing with Iran. Not just when, but how soon.
Israel continues to curry favor with the S Syrian Druze community, in spite of an agreement with the new Syrian govt.
Misc of Note –
Infowars, among the most popular alternative media outlets in the world, has had two of their employees targeted this week. Ace reporter Jamie White was murdered at his Austin apartment Sunday and now host Chase Geiser has been swatted twice.
https://thelibertydaily.com/after-one-infowars-reporter-was-murdered-another-got/
OBSERVATION - Jones and Infowars in my view kinda float around on the edge of the gray zone, conspiracy theorists to the max. However, these two events, combined with the blood lust on social media sites like Redditt, makes the linkage possible. Now is Jones under super secret plans to be assassinated? It gives me a little pause, since such action would be peripheral to a deeper attack against trump supporters.
Thanks very much, Godzilla. BUMP!
Infowars, among the most popular alternative media outlets in the world, has had two of their employees targeted this week. Ace reporter Jamie White was murdered at his Austin apartment Sunday and now host Chase Geiser has been swatted twice.
https://thelibertydaily.com/after-one-infowars-reporter-was-murdered-another-got/
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
There was a time I felt democrats wouldn’t go this far - but those days are over. Democrat extremists are capable of murder and of destroying car dealerships they don’t agree with...
In democratspeak, "bipartisanship" is giving the democrats everything they demand and them not bending on anything.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The European Commission estimates the total level of unused savings of EU citizens at 10 trillion Euros, and it intends to find ways to mobilise this money to finance its plans to militarise Europe and support the European military-industrial complex, according to a statement by European Commissioner for Financial Services and the Savings and Investment Union Maria Luís Albuquerque, distributed by the EC press service, TASS reports
“European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s announced plan to rearm Europe will rely heavily on attracting this private investment,” Ms. Albuquerque noted.
According to her, Europe’s problem is the gap between idle savings and enterprises in need of funds. Therefore, the EC intends to create a new scheme to mobilise owners’ funds for investment in EU industry, which will be implemented under an EU programme: the Investment and Savings Union.
OBSERVATION - Involvement by TASS does raise a few red flags as to the veracity of the statement by von per Leyen. However, the story is broad enough to lend credibility. Remember, the WEF states you will own nothing and be happy. Included in this plan is the concept that when you get paid, you must use up all your funds or ‘lose’ it at the end of the month. No individual savings accounts to be allowed. This is a scheme on a continent scale to essentially do just that, confiscate individual savings.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
A massive mob of anti-Israel protesters flooded Trump Tower Thursday to protest the arrest of Columbia rally ringleader Mahmoud Khalil — and were quickly arrested themselves.
The furious crowd of about 150 demonstrators — who were from the Palestinian support group “Jewish Voice for Peace” — wore red shirts emblazoned with the message, “Jews Say Stop Arming Israel” as they gathered at about noon in a public, downstairs atrium filled with dining tables outside the Trump Grill restaurant.
NYPD officers descended on the throng around 12:30 p.m. and made 98 arrests of rally-goers, who they zip-tied, hauled away and loaded onto buses for a trip to jail.
OBSERVATION - This sector of protests based in the anti-Israeli / pro-Hamas sector is developing into a more aggressive intimidation operation. Their handlers are continuing to maneuver Khalils into that of a kind of martyr for the cause, wrapping his actions into 1st amendment protections. However, those protections of aliens and citizens alike dissolve when those ‘actions’ are criminal.
***
WEEKEND OUTLOOK - Growing pro-hamas protests centering around support for Khalils are increasing. With that, increasing threat of vandalism and violence at the event site.
Also developing over the weekend are more protests against Musk and Tesla for his activities under DOGE. While the heaviest levels of vandalism have been in the Antifa strongholds of the pacific northwest, other dealers in metro areas are also being threatened.
Also, pro-illegal immigrant protests are being continued, though it appears leftist supporters are currently shifting more towards pro-hamas and anti - DOGE related efforts.
The Trump juggernaut on these issues is triggering the left into moving towards more violent actions as they see their so called ‘peaceful’ actions having no effect.
***
(FO) Anarchists based in the greater Seattle, Washington-area are planning an International Day Against Police on 15 March. According to a blog post, the theme is “social defense and offense against police,” and features a fundraiser for prisoners, education, and de-arrest training. De-arrest training involves teaching militants how to break up police arrests by physically blocking and sometimes pulling detainees away from police custody.
***
Astroturfing liberal groups like “Indivisible” as well as big union groups are planning to disrupt republican town halls as congress takes a recess. This campaign runs from 15-23 March.
***
MY MUDDLED MEANDERINGS -
This summer has growing potential for violence and rioting. The problem the leftist have is trying to motivate their base to action. The Floyd / BLM riots were driven by racism and an easily aroused black urban contingent. This time around, BLM really doesn’t have much to do with current issues. Thus the left is trying to draw upon mostly white, yuppie and indoctrinated college students with too much time on their hands. In some ways similar to the anti-war riots of the 60s and 70s
Having very little real world life experiences, they could be primed to go off on many of the issues from Trump. At this stage, mobilization efforts are still struggling because many are big on talking and short on doing. Most likely, riots will be centralized around anti- Israel, DOGE and anti-deportation efforts. Lack of a focused event - like the Floyd riots - will hinder some turnout.
As evidenced by social media sites like Redditt, calls for violence on these issues by keyboard warriors will continue to encourage some to action. Case in point discussions on how to attack Tesla dealerships resulting in attacks. More dangerous are calls for assassination.
With spring around the corner and better protest weather, the next couple months will provide a potential trend for riots going into the hot days of summer.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
A Tesla store in Tigard, Ore., near Portland, was shot up again after sustaining gunfire last week. This is the third shooting of a Tesla store in Oregon amid escalating threats from leftists.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1900466367100318011?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
FBI director Patel - “I want to address the alarming rise in ‘Swatting’ incidents targeting media figures. The FBI is aware of this dangerous trend, and my team and I are already taking action to investigate and hold those responsible accountable.”
All were swatted yesterday
- @Catturd2
- @GuntherEagleman
- @JoeTalkShow
- @nicksortor
- @Shawn_Farash
- @realchasegeiser
- @RealHickory
- @WCdispatch_
OBSERVATION - The use of ‘swatting’ by leftists is an action showing growing use of violent means to try to silence opposition. The above are very visible conservative influences on “X”. Swatting also lets the left project ‘power’ even though their numbers are insufficient to openly confront. Swats in the past have resulted in the targets being mistakenly killed by police. That potential, as well as heavily armed police storming your home in the middle of the night create desired terror of the targets.
These terroristic actions parallel the attacks against Tesla dealerships and owners. They can be done with minimal bodies while creating propaganda for their cause.
Final note - these terroristic actions blend in to their hopes for a much larger revolution which would blend into a CW2 scenario.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
Economic concerns have caused gold to break thru the $3000/oz barrier with silver reaching record levels as well. This contrasts to the stock market continued losses driven by concerns of impacts from tariffs and growing talk of a recession later this year.
***
Oil prices down by 14.48% since January 20th
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
On Wednesday, New York Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer announced that Senate Democrats will oppose the House-approved Continuing Resolution (CR) bill. Last night, Schumer did a 180 and announced that he would vote FOR the bill. Democrat activists went apoplectic.
He would join Sen Fetterman now in voting for it. The vote is scheduled for later today.
OBSERVATION - Schumer may have been bluffing to pacify his party’s base. While the additional democrat votes to pass bill through it is conceivable that 5 more democrats will cross over into support.
They were maneuvered into a lose-lose situation. Public view of the congressional democrats is at rock bottom levels and even with what little support the MSM might have been able to muster - it must have becoming very clear that the country would blame democrats for any shut down. I think many in the nation see the glaring hypocrisy of the democrats willing shutting the govt down when just a few short months earlier they were singing a different tune.
By talking tough only to cave later, Democrats are likely to further infuriate their activist base, always ravenous for radicalism.
RELATED - Here’s what may have shook schumer up -
A new Rasmussen survey, reveals.
“If there is a government shutdown, who will be most to blame?” Rasmussen asked U.S. likely voters in a national survey conducted March 9-11.
By a margin of nearly two-to-one, more voters lay the blame on Democrats in Congress than blame their Republican colleagues (41%-24%). Another 26% of voters say that President Donald Trump deserves the most blame, if a budget deal isn’t reached and the government shuts down. Nine percent say they’re “not sure.”
Notably, government employees blame Democrats in Congress over Republicans by a 26-percentage point margin (49%-23%). Each of the other employment cohorts prefer to blame Democrats by a 20-point margin.
By voter demographic, Democrats are blamed more than Republicans across the board:
MORE RELATED - Chuckie is even more distraught over being out maneuvered on the CR and it showed
Chuck Schumer just called Republicans “ba$tards” after he was forced to cave on CR:
“It’s much, much better not to be in the middle of a shutdown, which would divert people from the number one issue we have against these ba$tards!”
https://x.com/immeme0/status/1900350924276576471?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
AND THIS ISN’T THE END
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said there’s a “sense of betrayal” over Schumer’s flip-flop, and some activists are calling for Dems to replace Schumer as Senate Minority Leader. Rick Wilson, a former Republican who founded the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, accused Schumer of being “GOP sleeper agent.” One Axios headline from last night reads: “House Democrats go into ‘complete meltdown’ as Schumer folds.” That same Axios article quotes one Democrat who said, “There is definitely a primary recruitment effort happening right now ... not just Schumer, but for everyone who votes no.”
***
The judge in the Khalils restraining order has been demonstrated not to have jurisdiction. At the time that the habeas corpus was filed, Khalils was in jail in New Jersey, not New York. Such filings HAVE to be done in the state the individual is being held. Now, he is in Louisiana - and the judges are more hostile to leftist activism if faced with an appeal.
In the case of this activist NY judge - he has no standing to make any decision.
RELATED - Trump considering ignoring these blatant activist judges decisions pending USSC actions against them. This could set up a constitutional crisis that finally forces the USSC to get off the sidelines and weigh in on judicial activism.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Tariff wars continue as Europe is now receiving increased tariffs on items and is retaliating in return. So far, trump has gotten more concessions from those he’s placed tariffs on than not.
Illegal Immigration –
President Donald Trump is reportedly set to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to facilitate the mass deportations of illegal immigrants.
The president repeatedly vowed to take such action on the campaign trail and after he was elected last year. Now, it appears the plan will be set in motion, according to CNN White House correspondent Alayna Treene who reported the move in a post on X.
It is unclear exactly how the administration will carry out this strategy, but there are indications that it will be used to target criminal gangs. A senior White House official told CNN in February that “Labeling Tren de Aragua as a foreign terrorist organization was the first step.”
OBSERVATION - Trump using the additional tools at his disposal to expedite the expulsion of some of the most violent of the illegal groups biden let into the country. One can expect the likes of the ACLU to challenge this.
***
Border Patrol agents apprehended a total of 8,347 illegal migrants along the southern border throughout February, according to the latest figures released Wednesday by CBP. The number marks a 71% decrease from the previous month when agents caught 29,101 illegal migrants, while also showing a 94% decrease from the 140,641 illegal migrants nabbed in February 2024.
The administration hailed the figure as “the lowest average of nationwide apprehensions in CBP history” — pointing to the executive orders signed by Trump as the catalyst for the drop.
https://dailycaller.com/2025/03/13/border-migrant-encounters-reach-cbp-low/
OBSERVATION - The speed at which attempted infiltration into the US has been stopped in just a couple months is unprecedented. This is giving border control personnel a breather and enabling faster processing and deportation of those who have been caught.
Russia -
Putin met with Steve Witkoff late evening yesterday, hand over some information and signals for Trump, - Kremlin’s spokesperson
Unconfirmed reports from the meeting that putin has not rejected a 30 day ceasefire, but that ALL the terms he wants must be implemented. Ukraine or US would have no say in the matter. See Ukraine below as well.
Economic Impact –
Trump has cut off Russian oil sales to the European Union.
President Donald Trump ended the Biden policy that allowed sanctioned Russian banks to process EU payments for oil.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Putin still holding out on maximalist demands for any kind of cease fire, let along any peace treaty. Meanwhile, trump beginning to tighten the noose on Russia via sanctions - oil being the biggest one that is Russia’s cash flow life line. I can expect increased action against putin’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers and other cargo vessels operating to circumvent existing sanctions. Within this, China and NK could face sanctions for supporting Russia. In China’s case they’ve tried to dance away from being directly associated with supporting putin’s war efforts as any sanctions would hurt an already struggling manufacturing sector.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 70s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
One of the smallest attacks in recent weeks. At night, Russia launched just 27 Shahed drones of which 16 were shot down. Another 9 were lost in location, likely due to electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 14/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1410 men
+6 tanks
+11 AFVs
+46 artillery pieces
+114 service vehicles
Ukraine claims that their drones struck two gas compressor stations and a missile depot for S-300/S-400 systems in Russia yesterday. The drones hit the “Davydovskaya” (Tambov region) and “Novopetrovskaya” (Saratov region) gas stations. They also targeted a missile depot for S-300/S-400 systems near Rad’kovka (Belgorod region). The strike caused active ammunition detonation. Ukrainian attack drones successfully struck Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery, setting it ablaze.
The second day in a row that Ukraine attacked Moscow. Not just refineries—drones reached the heart of Russia again. A UAV hit an elite residential complex in Moscow, possibly the drone was suppressed by electronic warfare and took his own route.
Kursk Front -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control of Goncharovka of Kursk region.
Reports this morning also indicate that very little of Russian territory remains under the control of Ukraine.
Possibly in response to the collapse of the Kursk salient, Russian sabotage groups are reportedly trying to break into Sumy region across the entire border – regional governor. Russian forces have pulled in reserves, and shelling intensity is increasing. Residents of border communities are urged to evacuate
Summary —
The collapse of Ukraine in Kursk has been stunning and it appears that they need to get their legs under them before Russia makes a play towards Sumy. Definite indicators of an impending Russian attack.
(ISW). Putin’s attempts to introduce a new ceasefire agreement on terms that asymmetrically benefit Russia ignore Trump’s stated intention that the ceasefire set conditions for negotiations toward a more comprehensive peace agreement in the future. An agreement along the lines Putin appears to be offering would undermine the Trump administration’s stated objective of bringing about a sustainable peace in Ukraine, would reinforce Putin’s belief that Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine, and would incentivize Putin to resume military operations against Ukraine rather than making any concessions in formal negotiations to end the war.
Russia playing the ceasefire game. With the sudden collapse of Ukrainian forces in Kursk, putin is encouraged to press the action on the ground rather than deal with any talks as it gives him more leverage in the situation.
Trump OTOH seems to be starting to tighten the economic loop around Russia. With his stated position of peace, it is unlikely he will release special weapons for deep strikes into Russia at this stage.
Ukraine is continuing to successfully strike poorly protected oil refineries and facilities deep in Russia - hurting the Russian petroleum lifeline.
Russia’s very light Shahed attack overnight is interesting given the massive numbers of the past month. But then the numbers thrown against Ukraine may have severely drawn down Russia’s supplies for the drones and further slow down possible until Russia can restore stockpiles.
Europe / NATO General –
Von der Leyen: The EU increases pressure on Russia. We extend our sanctions on nearly 2400 individuals and entities over Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine, including: - Travel bans; - Asset freezes; - Ban on funding/resources; Our determination to support Ukraine is decisive
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas makes new release proposal.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas said Friday it received a proposal from mediators to restart Gaza ceasefire negotiations and had agreed to it.
Hamas also said it agreed to release Edan Alexander, an Israeli American hostage, and will release the bodies of four other hostages.
Hamas did not immediately specify when the release of soldier Edan Alexander and the four bodies would occur, and other countries party to the agreement did not immediately confirm the Hamas statement.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/hamas-hostages-ceasefire/2025/03/14/id/1202768/
***
Hamas: We agreed to release the hostage Edan Alexander and the bodies of four dead American hostages
***
Netanyahu meets with his security council to discuss the latest from Hamas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Defense Minister Israel Katz says the IDF will stay at five strategic points in southern Lebanon “indefinitely,” regardless of negations over 13 disputed points on the border. During an assessment yesterday with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and other top military officials, Katz “clarified that the IDF will remain at the five points that control the buffer zone in Lebanon, indefinitely, for the sake of protecting the residents of the north, and this is without any connection to future negotiations on points of dispute on the border,” his office says.
***
IDF spokesman: “The IDF attacked infrastructure at a site for the production and storage of strategic weapons by the terrorist organization Hezbollah in the Bekaa region in Lebanon.”
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel has permitted Syrian Druze religious leaders to visit sacred sites in Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Almost as if on que, Hamas comes out with some sort of hostage offer.
Hamas is playing games and stalling in order to regroup and get ready for another round of fighting. At the same time, it continues to engage in manipulation and psychological warfare. I haven’t seen their demands associated with the release offer, but they are likely trying to get as much ceasefire time as possible for a few hostages.
Otherwise, IMHO the clock is still ticking down to an eventual re-invasion of Gaza that will be far more intense than the previous. I suspect that Ramadan and Passover are playing a key role before things get unleashed.
Syria -
Syrian Democratic Council: The Syrian constitution for the transitional period is illegitimate and does not comply with the agreement between Sharaa and the SDF leader.
***
Russia says 9,000 Syrians fleeing violence have taken refuge at its Hmeimim air base
***
In spite to Syrian govt statements to the contrary, HTS affiliated militias continue mass murder and ethnic cleansing in the countryside.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Members of the Revolutionary Communists group and other far-left extremists gathered outside Columbia University yesterday to protest in support of Mahmoud Khalil.
OBSERVATION - Attempt by the left to hijack the protests and turn them into general anti-US operations.
***
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced the second arrest of Columbia University student Leqaa Kordia for immigration violations after her visa was revoked twice for failing to attend classes.
A pro-Hamas rioter, Kordia was also previously arrested during the Columbia University riots but was released.
Now, she’s being deported to the West Bank.
***
Considerable number of protests covering DOGE, anti-Israel/pro-hamas (Mahmoud Khalil.), Tesla etc slated for many cities throughout the nation. While most will be relatively peaceful, those involving support of Mahmoud Khalil and anti-Tesla showing the trend to generate some violence / vandalism.
Also note, increased chance of violence where unions have joined with anti-DOGE / Musk protests.
Pay attention to local news and recommend avoiding protest areas.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
Growing terror trends
- Attacks on Tesla dealerships and owners
- SWATTING of conservative influencers
- Threat to murder republican congressmen and conservatives.
These are entry level actions that suggest left attempting to trigger conditions for much larger levels of violence. Encouragement of all kinds on these subjects flying all over leftist socialist media sites like Redditt.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Senate passed a six-month spending bill on Friday hours before a government shutdown, overcoming sharp Democratic opposition to the measure and sending it to President Donald Trump to be signed into law. The vote was 54-46.
***
A federal appeals court on Friday evening lifted a block on two of President Trump’s executive orders aimed at eliminating Marxist Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies.
President Trump previously signed two Executive Orders that instructed agencies in the executive branch to end discriminatory DEI policies: One EO directed DEI policies to be eliminated in federal agencies and the other EO targeted recipients of federal grants.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/03/huge-win-appeals-court-lifts-injunction-2-president/
OBSERVATION - I believe this is the start of the push back on the activist judges. Overall, I think the judges at the appellate level know better than to condone district judge decisions, so I expect to seem more of these decisions in favor of Trump in the future.
***
(But) the New York Times reports that Schumer’s surrender has sparked a crisis in Democratic Party ranks: “Young Democrats’ Anger Boils Over as Schumer Retreats on Shutdown.”
Senator Chuck Schumer’s sudden decision on Thursday to support a Republican-written bill to avert a government shutdown so enraged his fellow Democrats that some were already talking about primary challenges to the 74-year-old Democratic leader from New York.
A primary challenge from Schumer’s left? Great idea.
The eruption of anger about Mr. Schumer’s seeming surrender thrust into public view a generational divide that has emerged as one of the Democratic Party’s deepest and most consequential rifts.
Younger Democrats are chafing at and increasingly complaining about what they see as the feebleness of the old guard’s efforts to push back against President Trump.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/03/the-dems-civil-war.php
OBSERVATION - Knives come out for Chucky. Schumer’s 180 has reopened a rift in the democrat party that unraveled following Hama’s Oct 7 attack on Israel - between the older pro-Israeli members and the younger anti-Israeli group. Similar friction now is apparent as democrats continue to struggle to get some kind of traction to oppose Trump, with their multi-agenda coalition act odds as to just what to do.
On another level, this civil war within the democrat party may also spill out onto the streets as these marxist young democrats will seek to use violence not only against trump, but moderate democrat leadership as well.
***
Turns out that while befuddled old Joe Biden was sitting in the Oval Office, using all of the mental energy at his command to keep his eyes from crossing, some (so far) anonymous staffer was using the old presidential auto-pen to sign, well, everything, in the president’s name.
A key aide to former President Joe Biden may have exceeded their authority by liberally using an autopen to sign official documents, according to two former White House sources,
One Biden White House source told The Post they suspect that a key aide to the then-president may have made unilateral determinations on what to auto-sign. The Post is not publishing that staffer’s name due to the lack of concrete evidence and refutations by other colleagues.
The Biden aide, who did not respond to requests for comment, would frequently make mention of what “the boss” wanted, the source said, but compatriots would have “no idea” if it was true because the internal culture was to not ask questions.
OBSERVATION - This scandal continues to grow and now is approaching a potential constitutional crisis. As noted before, the legality of these ‘signatures’ absent clear approval of biden (who was demonstrably out of town when the autopen was used), could mean that all things ‘signed’ are invalid and illegal. Country hasn’t faced this kind of situation before - if illegally used, how does the country unwind from these ‘decisions’.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says South Africa’s ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, ‘is no longer welcome’ in the country. Rasool is also reportedly friends with Hamas.
Illegal Immigration –
New York Times report: The Trump administration has drawn up a list of 43 countries whose citizens will be subject to restrictions on entry to the United States. Citizens of the red list countries, which include Iran, Afghanistan, and North Korea, will be banned from entering the United States. The orange list will have visas restricted, including student visas, and the yellow list will have restrictions imposed if their governments do not correct a series of deficiencies within a period of about two months.
North/South Korea –
Russian aircraft briefly entered South Korean’s ADZ escalating tensions amid global conflicts and historical incidents.
OBSERVATION - Action not too uncommon, but tensions are high in the region, particularly with current Russian - N Korean cooperation.
Russia -
putin has apparently waved off a US ceasefire offer and plan. Russia currently sees itself with the complete upper hand in the war and will only accept conditions it dictates.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 70s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reported a large Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 178 Shahed drones launched, 130 were shot down and another 38 were lost in location, presumably taken down by electronic warfare.
Also, Russia used 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Results on defending against these missiles are not reported.
Russian losses per 15/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1180 men
+2 tanks
+15 AFVs
+28 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+102 service vehicles
Massive Russian attack on DTEK energy facilities in Dnipropetrovsk & Odesa regions. Russian strikes caused severe damage, leaving parts of both regions without power.
The Russian Defense Ministry stated that on the night of March 15, air defense forces operated in the Volgograd, Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk, Rostov and Kursk regions. According to the report, a total of 126 drones were destroyed. Over the territory of the Volgograd region, air defense forces shot down 64 UAVs. Over the Voronezh region, 38 drones were destroyed, over Belgorod - 14, over Bryansk - seven, over Rostov - two, over Kursk - one.
Damage to electrical power infrastructure in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions as result of Russian drone strikes
Smoke is rising over southern part of Volgograd as a result of a Ukraine drone strike. Chemical smell reported
Kursk Front -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Zaoleshenka and Rubanschyna in Kursk region
Summary —
Ukraine continues its pullout from Kursk. Rumored encirclement of Ukraine forces do not appear to be valid at this time. It currently looks like a controlled retrograde out of the region.
Ukraine had a considerable number of Russian forces committed against them. These forces will likely be redirected into other sectors to enhance offensive operations there. There also remains the concern that Russia will attempt to continue the operation and press across the border towards Sumy. Notes that local defense forces are preparing for such an effort. Zelensky warns that Sumy is the Russia next target.
My assessment is that Russia may well strike while the iron is hot, but it is going to encounter the same, tenacious Ukrainian defenses that has eaten its army once it crosses the border. Russia just doesn’t have the tanks / apcs as well as the commanders and operators skilled enough to execute maneuver war fare. But an attack towards Sumy would promote Russia’s internal propaganda efforts greatly.
Russia holds the upper hand in the ceasefire discussions. Their refusal to negotiate in good faith is going to force Trump’s hand. As I’ve noted, Trump has a number of economic means with which to seriously damage Russia’s economy. I still don’t see him supplying more serious weapon systems for Ukraine’s use as it is counter to his stated peace objectives.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hostage talks failing
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Talks to extend the Gaza ceasefire have failed to reach an agreement, a Palestinian official has told the BBC, as the US accused Hamas of making “entirely impractical” demands at meetings in Qatar.
Negotiators have been trying to find a way forward after the first phase of the temporary truce ended on 1 March.
The US proposed to extend the first phase until mid-April, including a further exchange of hostages held by Hamas and Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
But the unnamed Palestinian official said Israel and Hamas disagreed over key aspects of the deal set out by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff at the indirect talks.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7230vrkmko
***
The Israeli negotiating delegation left Doha and returned to Israel.
***
Trump’s envoy Witkoff:
Hamas is raising completely impractical demands behind closed doors that do not include a permanent ceasefire.
Special Envoy Steve Witkoff + National Security Council warn that “President Trump has made it clear that Hamas will either release hostages immediately, or pay a severe price.”
Witkoff presented a “bridge” proposal on Wednesday evening to “extend the ceasefire beyond Ramadan and Passover, and allow time to negotiate a framework for a permanent ceasefire,” his office says.
“Under the ‘bridge’ proposal, Hamas would release living hostages in exchange for prisoners in accordance with previous formulas; the phase-one ceasefire would be extended to enable the resumption of significant humanitarian assistance; and the U.S. would work towards a durable solution to this intractable conflict during the extended ceasefire period.”
“Through our Qatari and Egyptian partners, Hamas was told in no uncertain terms that this ‘bridge’ would have to be implemented soon — and that dual U.S.-Israeli citizen Edan Alexander would have to be released immediately.”
“Unfortunately,” the statement continues, “Hamas has chosen to respond by publicly claiming flexibility while privately making demands that are entirely impractical without a permanent ceasefire.”
Concludes: “Hamas is making a very bad bet that time is on its side. It is not. Hamas is well aware of the deadline, and should know that we will respond accordingly if that deadline passes.”
https://x.com/marymargolohan/status/1900596470018904454?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF kills terror squad observed planting mines in the no-go buffer zone.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
On going Israeli security force operations throughout the territory.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
As expected, Hamas plays a hostage release card, while at the same time pushing unreasonable demands. The departure of the Israeli negotiating team from Doha is evidence that nothing is going to happen any time soon.
The “deadline” Witkoff cites is still speculative but I still suspect it is the end of Ramadan / Passover season the end of this month. This gives them as little as two more weeks (four if Passover). My guess is the end of Ramadan, the Eid al-Fitr is the date. This would avoid raising islamic ire during their holy month any more than necessary.
Lebanon - Israel continues to take out Hezbollah targets of opportunity.
Syria - Israel digging in for the long run on Syrian claimed territory on Israel’s border.
Iraq -
Iraqi Foreign Minister: We discussed ISIS movements with the Syrian side and the idea of forming a joint operations room to confront the group.
***
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced its forces, in coordination with Iraqi Intelligence and Security Forces, carried out a precision-airstrike on the Al Anbar Governorate of Western Iraq on March 13th, which resulted in the elimination of ISIS’ Chief of Global Operations and the Delegated Committee Emir, Abdallah Makki Muslih al-Rifai, also known as Abu Khadijah, alongside another ISIS terrorist.
Khadijah, as Emir of ISIS operated as second-in-command of the terrorist organization
He was friends with Syrian President Julani
Syria -
Turkish Foreign Minister: No concessions should be made in Syria regarding efforts to achieve self-rule or self-administration, and Ankara will monitor the steps taken to implement the agreement between Damascus and the SDF.
OBSERVATION - A point of friction between the new Syrian govt and its main benefactor.
Africa general –
S Africa - Ambassador PNG from the US.
Thanks Godzilla.
Simple. The pardons (et. al.) are simply reversed. Prosecution can begin on the likes of Bugeye Schiff and Lizard Cheney.
Personally, I want to see them frogmarched.
It's fraud.
Prosecute all involved and declare everything signed by them as invalid.
Middle east breaking out in activity overnight.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Huge swathes of the Amazon rainforest destroyed to build road for CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT.
Thousands of trees are being cut down to build a 4 lane highway for the upcoming COP30 climate change summit in Belem, Brazil.
OBSERVATION - Its never been about the climate - its been about power and control.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Anti - Musk/Tesla protests throughout major cities with vandalism.
Anti-deportation / pro-hamas protests hitting a slight pause as foreign student leaders are being arrested for deportation and many others are self deporting.
Expect more protests with potential for localized violence and vandalism today.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. Naval Assets in the Red Sea:
- USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75)
- USS Gettysburg (CG-64)
- USS Stout (DDG-55)
- USS Jason Dunham (DDG-109)
- USS The Sullivans (DDG-68)
- USS Georgia (SSGN-729)
POLITICAL FRONT –
Developing constitutional crisis as district judges illegally rule against clear mandates by law and constitution granting Trump control over immigration and the deportation of unwanted aliens. There has been talk of trump ignoring these lower court rulings to force the USSC to reign in these rogue justices. Congressionally, impeachment is a nice word, and the house probably has the guts to get their part done, but the senate is where the judges wold be kicked out and it is doubtful the republicans could pick up the necessary democrat support to uphold the impeachment.
Illegal Immigration –
On Saturday, Trump issued a presidential proclamation invoking the Alien Enemies Act specifically to speed along the deportations of all Venezuelan nationals who are 14 years old or older, who are members of Tren de Aragua, and who are not citizens or lawful permanent residents of the United States.
Hours before Trump issued his proclamation, lawyers for five Venezuelan detainees being processed for deportation from the United States filed a lawsuit seeking to stop the president’s deportation practice. In response, U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, issued an order barring the deportation of those five plaintiffs identified in the lawsuit for at least the next two weeks, as the legal proceedings continue.
Later on Saturday evening, Boasberg returned with a second order, granting a class action certification to all noncitizens who would otherwise be subject to Trump’s presidential proclamation.
OBSERVATION - Activist judge tosses another speed bump against deportations. Invalid rulings like this are designed to slow the trump juggernaut and try to buy time for the leftists to entrench into new defensive lines.
Russia -
Russia has been told via diplomatic channels to keep their nose out of US operations in the Red Sea and against the Houthis.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 90 Shahed drones, 47 were shot down and another 33 were lost in location, presumably by the work of electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 16/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1400 men
+10 tanks
+20 AFVs
+78 artillery systems
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system
+113 service vehicles
Ukraine has officially fielded a 1000km (620 mi) range variant of the Neptune cruise missile, and has used it in combat for the first time.
This new variant gives Ukraine a domestically produced cruise missile with nearly double the range of the Franco-British Storm Shadow.
The long-range Neptune was reportedly used to strike Russia’s Tuapse refinery Thursday night.
Based on a likely launch location near the Ukrainian Black Sea coast, and overwater routing to avoid Russian air defenses, the missile likely flew roughly 500 miles.
Summary —
Moderately heavy ground action. Analysis suggests that Russian forces have been pushed back over the past week southward away from Pokrovsk. Russia and Ukraine may have eked out small territory gains in other sectors, but nothing tactically significant.
Ukraine forces in Kursk seem to have regrouped in a limited manner, retaining a much smaller portion of Russia than they captured months ago. Fall out from the withdrawal on the broader fight is still yet to be seen, as well as if Russia is going to try to continue the effort towards Sumy.
Cease fire/peace talks are stalled because of Russia’s refusal to come to the table.
Developments with the Neptune missile appear to have given Ukraine a substantially improved tool for deep strikes into Russia. The original warhead was 150 kg (330 lb), so this extended range missile’s warhead is unknown. It also gives them a tool to take out the Kerch Bridge without relying of US or European systems.
Europe / NATO General –
Macron says Moscow has no say if Kyiv agrees to allied peacekeepers
British Prime Minister Starmer announced
Plans to send peacekeepers to Ukraine move into ‘operational phase’ hea says.
- Putin’s response to the ceasefire is “not good enough”, Starmer said.
- European military leaders will meet as early as Thursday in Britain to discuss sending peacekeepers to Ukraine.
- The British prime minister also emphasized that any peace plan for Ukraine requires mandatory U.S. involvement.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Massive student-led protests erupted today and tonight throughout the Serbia Capital of Belgrade, the largest in decades, as hundreds of thousands call for the resignation of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and an end to his authoritarian regime which has been in power since 2012. The protests are seen as a culmination of months of smaller civil actions across Serbia, following the collapse of a concrete canopy at a train station back in November, which killed 15. Vučić claimed that the protests were being organized and planned by Western Intelligence Services, and that the protesters were trying to start a civil war and carry out attacks on authorities.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Large US airstrike hit Houthis
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF Spokesperson: Earlier today, two terrorists were identified who operated a drone that posed a threat to IDF forces in the Beit Lahia area in Gaza. The IDF attacked the terrorists. Afterwards, several additional terrorists collected the drone operating equipment in the attack area and entered the vehicle. The IDF attacked the terrorists.
***
Hamxs and Islamic Jihad denounce the U.S. strike on Yemen.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Two Hezbollah operatives were killed in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon earlier today, the military says. According to the Israeli army, the pair were carrying out surveillance on the border and were involved in advancing attacks on Israel from the Yater and Mays al-Jabal area
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US has begun a large-scale strike operation against Houthi targets in Yemen. Some reports indicate that this is just the start of a multi-day operation. Trump reportedly authorized the mission on Friday.
The strikes were carried out by fighter jets from the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman, as well as by Air Force fighter jets and armed drones launched from bases in the area, American officials said.
U.S. Central Command released footage showing the launch of F/A-18E “Super Hornets” with Strike Fighter Squadron 143 (VFA-143) and EA-18G “Growlers” with Electronic Attack Squadron 144 (VAQ-144), from onboard the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) in the Northern Red Sea, for tonight’s strikes against Houthi radars, air defenses, missile and drone systems, as well as other terrorist targets in Western Yemen.
US Central Command also released footage of Tomahawk cruise missiles being launched at Yemen, as well as footage of the airstrikes on a residential compound.
US forces struck in at least four waves of strikes.
***
According to the New York Times, citing two unnamed senior U.S. officials, the strikes included naval strikes as well and could last for several days. They could intensify in scope and scale depending on the how the Houthis react.
Additionally, the ongoing strike campaign is also meant to send a message to Iran, who has continued to sow conflict in the region by, with, and through its regional proxies.
US targeted four areas in Yemen;
•Sanaa – Capital of Yemen
•Saada – Houthi stronghold in northern Yemen
•Dhamar – City in central Yemen
•Al-Bayda – City in central Yemen
Analysis of the attack reports suggests the pattern of the strikes indicate a possible assassination attempt on a high-ranking Ansarallah member.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. targeted the homes of senior Houthi officials in Sanaa, Yemen, during the operation.
According to initial reports, Hassan Sharaf al-Din, a senior Houthi figure, was killed in US airstrikes in Sanaa. This is yet to be confirmed.
***
President Trump issued a statement after U.S. airstrikes on Houthi terrorists in Yemen.
“To the Houthi terrorists, YOUR TIME IS UP, AND ATTACKS MUST STOP, STARTING TODAY. IF THEY DON’T, HELL WILL RAIN DOWN UPON YOU LIKE NETHING YOU HAVE EVER SEEN BEFORE!”
...and to Iran, your support for the Houthi terrorists must end now
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth Issues a threat to Iran:
“Houthi attacks on American ships & aircraft (and our troops!) will not be tolerated; and Iran, their benefactor, is on notice.”
Houthi political spokesman Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti, after the U.S. strikes:
“We will meet escalation with escalation, and the one who starts it is the most unjust.”
***
Houthi response was limited -
A Houthi missile launched from Yemen landed in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula overnight, not far from the coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh. The Israeli army is investigating whether the missile intended to target Israel, although so far is unable to verify this.
Another Houthi missile was intercepted by the US over the Red Sea.
***
U.S. bases in Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait and Iraq have been placed on a heightened state of alert
***
Iraqi Shiite insurgent faction “Kataib Sarkhat al-Quds” (formerly “Ashab al-Kahf”) has declared, “we are ready and are at the beck and call of [Houthi] leaders to respond to these crimes by targeting the interests of the American enemy in the region, wherever they may be.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Trump ordered a strike on the Houthis larger than the combined attacks from the biden regime, and they may not be finished. As Ive said time and again on this subject, arabs respect strength and force. biden’s one and done attacks had little impact. The strength and intensity of this overnight attack (and if there are follow-on strikes) suggests to me that Trump understands how to get a message to Iran and its proxy elements.
The broad range of attack methods - USN and USAF jets and cruise missiles - suggest a well thought out plan. We will have to see if more strikes are in the offing later today. Hopefully heavy bombers (B1, B2 and B52) will come in the next phase. A second round of bombing is a necessary exclamation point.
Another key point is that Houthi leadership was targeted. One probable kill, the rest probably bugged out to a tent in the desert. It may not work out well for them there - ask Gaddafi.
The Iranians may well be wetting themselves following the airstrikes on Houthis. A stated goal of the attack was a warning to Iran. Israel’s assets ripped them pretty harshly in the last attack and this attack by US assets in a joint effort with Israel would be a nightmare. Iranian air defense assets are insufficient and will be quickly put out of operation, giving coalition aircraft free reign over Iran. This would include US heavy bombers with the massive ordnance penetrator bombs needed for deep nuclear facilities.
My concerns over an Iranian strike are two fold. First the threat to the Straits of Hormuz and second Iran’s ability for a follow-on strike against US bases in the Gulf as well as the host nations. The Truman is well positioned for the Houthi operation, but is too far away to significantly influence action in the Persian Gulf. If more naval assets are moved close to the Persian Gulf in the near future, Iran should start sweating bullets.
On the Gaza front, Hamas is pushing the concept of the release of only American living and dead in an apparent effort to split the US / Israeli pressure on them. Trump has made it pretty clear, All means ALL, American and Jewish hostages. With that, all movement is at a stalemate.
Something's up...
Carrier strike groups are regularly in the Middle East.
I think five different carrier strike groups have taken turns in the ME the last few years.
https://news.usni.org/2024/12/16/harry-s-truman-carrier-strike-group-in-middle-east
Thanks jjotto...
This is the task force that has been operating in the region for several months now
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