CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Members of the Revolutionary Communists group and other far-left extremists gathered outside Columbia University yesterday to protest in support of Mahmoud Khalil.
OBSERVATION - Attempt by the left to hijack the protests and turn them into general anti-US operations.
***
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced the second arrest of Columbia University student Leqaa Kordia for immigration violations after her visa was revoked twice for failing to attend classes.
A pro-Hamas rioter, Kordia was also previously arrested during the Columbia University riots but was released.
Now, she’s being deported to the West Bank.
***
Considerable number of protests covering DOGE, anti-Israel/pro-hamas (Mahmoud Khalil.), Tesla etc slated for many cities throughout the nation. While most will be relatively peaceful, those involving support of Mahmoud Khalil and anti-Tesla showing the trend to generate some violence / vandalism.
Also note, increased chance of violence where unions have joined with anti-DOGE / Musk protests.
Pay attention to local news and recommend avoiding protest areas.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
Growing terror trends
- Attacks on Tesla dealerships and owners
- SWATTING of conservative influencers
- Threat to murder republican congressmen and conservatives.
These are entry level actions that suggest left attempting to trigger conditions for much larger levels of violence. Encouragement of all kinds on these subjects flying all over leftist socialist media sites like Redditt.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Senate passed a six-month spending bill on Friday hours before a government shutdown, overcoming sharp Democratic opposition to the measure and sending it to President Donald Trump to be signed into law. The vote was 54-46.
***
A federal appeals court on Friday evening lifted a block on two of President Trump’s executive orders aimed at eliminating Marxist Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies.
President Trump previously signed two Executive Orders that instructed agencies in the executive branch to end discriminatory DEI policies: One EO directed DEI policies to be eliminated in federal agencies and the other EO targeted recipients of federal grants.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/03/huge-win-appeals-court-lifts-injunction-2-president/
OBSERVATION - I believe this is the start of the push back on the activist judges. Overall, I think the judges at the appellate level know better than to condone district judge decisions, so I expect to seem more of these decisions in favor of Trump in the future.
***
(But) the New York Times reports that Schumer’s surrender has sparked a crisis in Democratic Party ranks: “Young Democrats’ Anger Boils Over as Schumer Retreats on Shutdown.”
Senator Chuck Schumer’s sudden decision on Thursday to support a Republican-written bill to avert a government shutdown so enraged his fellow Democrats that some were already talking about primary challenges to the 74-year-old Democratic leader from New York.
A primary challenge from Schumer’s left? Great idea.
The eruption of anger about Mr. Schumer’s seeming surrender thrust into public view a generational divide that has emerged as one of the Democratic Party’s deepest and most consequential rifts.
Younger Democrats are chafing at and increasingly complaining about what they see as the feebleness of the old guard’s efforts to push back against President Trump.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/03/the-dems-civil-war.php
OBSERVATION - Knives come out for Chucky. Schumer’s 180 has reopened a rift in the democrat party that unraveled following Hama’s Oct 7 attack on Israel - between the older pro-Israeli members and the younger anti-Israeli group. Similar friction now is apparent as democrats continue to struggle to get some kind of traction to oppose Trump, with their multi-agenda coalition act odds as to just what to do.
On another level, this civil war within the democrat party may also spill out onto the streets as these marxist young democrats will seek to use violence not only against trump, but moderate democrat leadership as well.
***
Turns out that while befuddled old Joe Biden was sitting in the Oval Office, using all of the mental energy at his command to keep his eyes from crossing, some (so far) anonymous staffer was using the old presidential auto-pen to sign, well, everything, in the president’s name.
A key aide to former President Joe Biden may have exceeded their authority by liberally using an autopen to sign official documents, according to two former White House sources,
One Biden White House source told The Post they suspect that a key aide to the then-president may have made unilateral determinations on what to auto-sign. The Post is not publishing that staffer’s name due to the lack of concrete evidence and refutations by other colleagues.
The Biden aide, who did not respond to requests for comment, would frequently make mention of what “the boss” wanted, the source said, but compatriots would have “no idea” if it was true because the internal culture was to not ask questions.
OBSERVATION - This scandal continues to grow and now is approaching a potential constitutional crisis. As noted before, the legality of these ‘signatures’ absent clear approval of biden (who was demonstrably out of town when the autopen was used), could mean that all things ‘signed’ are invalid and illegal. Country hasn’t faced this kind of situation before - if illegally used, how does the country unwind from these ‘decisions’.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says South Africa’s ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, ‘is no longer welcome’ in the country. Rasool is also reportedly friends with Hamas.
Illegal Immigration –
New York Times report: The Trump administration has drawn up a list of 43 countries whose citizens will be subject to restrictions on entry to the United States. Citizens of the red list countries, which include Iran, Afghanistan, and North Korea, will be banned from entering the United States. The orange list will have visas restricted, including student visas, and the yellow list will have restrictions imposed if their governments do not correct a series of deficiencies within a period of about two months.
North/South Korea –
Russian aircraft briefly entered South Korean’s ADZ escalating tensions amid global conflicts and historical incidents.
OBSERVATION - Action not too uncommon, but tensions are high in the region, particularly with current Russian - N Korean cooperation.
Russia -
putin has apparently waved off a US ceasefire offer and plan. Russia currently sees itself with the complete upper hand in the war and will only accept conditions it dictates.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 70s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reported a large Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 178 Shahed drones launched, 130 were shot down and another 38 were lost in location, presumably taken down by electronic warfare.
Also, Russia used 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Results on defending against these missiles are not reported.
Russian losses per 15/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1180 men
+2 tanks
+15 AFVs
+28 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+102 service vehicles
Massive Russian attack on DTEK energy facilities in Dnipropetrovsk & Odesa regions. Russian strikes caused severe damage, leaving parts of both regions without power.
The Russian Defense Ministry stated that on the night of March 15, air defense forces operated in the Volgograd, Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk, Rostov and Kursk regions. According to the report, a total of 126 drones were destroyed. Over the territory of the Volgograd region, air defense forces shot down 64 UAVs. Over the Voronezh region, 38 drones were destroyed, over Belgorod - 14, over Bryansk - seven, over Rostov - two, over Kursk - one.
Damage to electrical power infrastructure in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions as result of Russian drone strikes
Smoke is rising over southern part of Volgograd as a result of a Ukraine drone strike. Chemical smell reported
Kursk Front -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Zaoleshenka and Rubanschyna in Kursk region
Summary —
Ukraine continues its pullout from Kursk. Rumored encirclement of Ukraine forces do not appear to be valid at this time. It currently looks like a controlled retrograde out of the region.
Ukraine had a considerable number of Russian forces committed against them. These forces will likely be redirected into other sectors to enhance offensive operations there. There also remains the concern that Russia will attempt to continue the operation and press across the border towards Sumy. Notes that local defense forces are preparing for such an effort. Zelensky warns that Sumy is the Russia next target.
My assessment is that Russia may well strike while the iron is hot, but it is going to encounter the same, tenacious Ukrainian defenses that has eaten its army once it crosses the border. Russia just doesn’t have the tanks / apcs as well as the commanders and operators skilled enough to execute maneuver war fare. But an attack towards Sumy would promote Russia’s internal propaganda efforts greatly.
Russia holds the upper hand in the ceasefire discussions. Their refusal to negotiate in good faith is going to force Trump’s hand. As I’ve noted, Trump has a number of economic means with which to seriously damage Russia’s economy. I still don’t see him supplying more serious weapon systems for Ukraine’s use as it is counter to his stated peace objectives.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hostage talks failing
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Talks to extend the Gaza ceasefire have failed to reach an agreement, a Palestinian official has told the BBC, as the US accused Hamas of making “entirely impractical” demands at meetings in Qatar.
Negotiators have been trying to find a way forward after the first phase of the temporary truce ended on 1 March.
The US proposed to extend the first phase until mid-April, including a further exchange of hostages held by Hamas and Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
But the unnamed Palestinian official said Israel and Hamas disagreed over key aspects of the deal set out by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff at the indirect talks.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7230vrkmko
***
The Israeli negotiating delegation left Doha and returned to Israel.
***
Trump’s envoy Witkoff:
Hamas is raising completely impractical demands behind closed doors that do not include a permanent ceasefire.
Special Envoy Steve Witkoff + National Security Council warn that “President Trump has made it clear that Hamas will either release hostages immediately, or pay a severe price.”
Witkoff presented a “bridge” proposal on Wednesday evening to “extend the ceasefire beyond Ramadan and Passover, and allow time to negotiate a framework for a permanent ceasefire,” his office says.
“Under the ‘bridge’ proposal, Hamas would release living hostages in exchange for prisoners in accordance with previous formulas; the phase-one ceasefire would be extended to enable the resumption of significant humanitarian assistance; and the U.S. would work towards a durable solution to this intractable conflict during the extended ceasefire period.”
“Through our Qatari and Egyptian partners, Hamas was told in no uncertain terms that this ‘bridge’ would have to be implemented soon — and that dual U.S.-Israeli citizen Edan Alexander would have to be released immediately.”
“Unfortunately,” the statement continues, “Hamas has chosen to respond by publicly claiming flexibility while privately making demands that are entirely impractical without a permanent ceasefire.”
Concludes: “Hamas is making a very bad bet that time is on its side. It is not. Hamas is well aware of the deadline, and should know that we will respond accordingly if that deadline passes.”
https://x.com/marymargolohan/status/1900596470018904454?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF kills terror squad observed planting mines in the no-go buffer zone.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
On going Israeli security force operations throughout the territory.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
As expected, Hamas plays a hostage release card, while at the same time pushing unreasonable demands. The departure of the Israeli negotiating team from Doha is evidence that nothing is going to happen any time soon.
The “deadline” Witkoff cites is still speculative but I still suspect it is the end of Ramadan / Passover season the end of this month. This gives them as little as two more weeks (four if Passover). My guess is the end of Ramadan, the Eid al-Fitr is the date. This would avoid raising islamic ire during their holy month any more than necessary.
Lebanon - Israel continues to take out Hezbollah targets of opportunity.
Syria - Israel digging in for the long run on Syrian claimed territory on Israel’s border.
Iraq -
Iraqi Foreign Minister: We discussed ISIS movements with the Syrian side and the idea of forming a joint operations room to confront the group.
***
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced its forces, in coordination with Iraqi Intelligence and Security Forces, carried out a precision-airstrike on the Al Anbar Governorate of Western Iraq on March 13th, which resulted in the elimination of ISIS’ Chief of Global Operations and the Delegated Committee Emir, Abdallah Makki Muslih al-Rifai, also known as Abu Khadijah, alongside another ISIS terrorist.
Khadijah, as Emir of ISIS operated as second-in-command of the terrorist organization
He was friends with Syrian President Julani
Syria -
Turkish Foreign Minister: No concessions should be made in Syria regarding efforts to achieve self-rule or self-administration, and Ankara will monitor the steps taken to implement the agreement between Damascus and the SDF.
OBSERVATION - A point of friction between the new Syrian govt and its main benefactor.
Africa general –
S Africa - Ambassador PNG from the US.
Thanks Godzilla.
Simple. The pardons (et. al.) are simply reversed. Prosecution can begin on the likes of Bugeye Schiff and Lizard Cheney.
Personally, I want to see them frogmarched.
Middle east breaking out in activity overnight.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Huge swathes of the Amazon rainforest destroyed to build road for CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT.
Thousands of trees are being cut down to build a 4 lane highway for the upcoming COP30 climate change summit in Belem, Brazil.
OBSERVATION - Its never been about the climate - its been about power and control.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Anti - Musk/Tesla protests throughout major cities with vandalism.
Anti-deportation / pro-hamas protests hitting a slight pause as foreign student leaders are being arrested for deportation and many others are self deporting.
Expect more protests with potential for localized violence and vandalism today.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. Naval Assets in the Red Sea:
- USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75)
- USS Gettysburg (CG-64)
- USS Stout (DDG-55)
- USS Jason Dunham (DDG-109)
- USS The Sullivans (DDG-68)
- USS Georgia (SSGN-729)
POLITICAL FRONT –
Developing constitutional crisis as district judges illegally rule against clear mandates by law and constitution granting Trump control over immigration and the deportation of unwanted aliens. There has been talk of trump ignoring these lower court rulings to force the USSC to reign in these rogue justices. Congressionally, impeachment is a nice word, and the house probably has the guts to get their part done, but the senate is where the judges wold be kicked out and it is doubtful the republicans could pick up the necessary democrat support to uphold the impeachment.
Illegal Immigration –
On Saturday, Trump issued a presidential proclamation invoking the Alien Enemies Act specifically to speed along the deportations of all Venezuelan nationals who are 14 years old or older, who are members of Tren de Aragua, and who are not citizens or lawful permanent residents of the United States.
Hours before Trump issued his proclamation, lawyers for five Venezuelan detainees being processed for deportation from the United States filed a lawsuit seeking to stop the president’s deportation practice. In response, U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, issued an order barring the deportation of those five plaintiffs identified in the lawsuit for at least the next two weeks, as the legal proceedings continue.
Later on Saturday evening, Boasberg returned with a second order, granting a class action certification to all noncitizens who would otherwise be subject to Trump’s presidential proclamation.
OBSERVATION - Activist judge tosses another speed bump against deportations. Invalid rulings like this are designed to slow the trump juggernaut and try to buy time for the leftists to entrench into new defensive lines.
Russia -
Russia has been told via diplomatic channels to keep their nose out of US operations in the Red Sea and against the Houthis.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 90 Shahed drones, 47 were shot down and another 33 were lost in location, presumably by the work of electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 16/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1400 men
+10 tanks
+20 AFVs
+78 artillery systems
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system
+113 service vehicles
Ukraine has officially fielded a 1000km (620 mi) range variant of the Neptune cruise missile, and has used it in combat for the first time.
This new variant gives Ukraine a domestically produced cruise missile with nearly double the range of the Franco-British Storm Shadow.
The long-range Neptune was reportedly used to strike Russia’s Tuapse refinery Thursday night.
Based on a likely launch location near the Ukrainian Black Sea coast, and overwater routing to avoid Russian air defenses, the missile likely flew roughly 500 miles.
Summary —
Moderately heavy ground action. Analysis suggests that Russian forces have been pushed back over the past week southward away from Pokrovsk. Russia and Ukraine may have eked out small territory gains in other sectors, but nothing tactically significant.
Ukraine forces in Kursk seem to have regrouped in a limited manner, retaining a much smaller portion of Russia than they captured months ago. Fall out from the withdrawal on the broader fight is still yet to be seen, as well as if Russia is going to try to continue the effort towards Sumy.
Cease fire/peace talks are stalled because of Russia’s refusal to come to the table.
Developments with the Neptune missile appear to have given Ukraine a substantially improved tool for deep strikes into Russia. The original warhead was 150 kg (330 lb), so this extended range missile’s warhead is unknown. It also gives them a tool to take out the Kerch Bridge without relying of US or European systems.
Europe / NATO General –
Macron says Moscow has no say if Kyiv agrees to allied peacekeepers
British Prime Minister Starmer announced
Plans to send peacekeepers to Ukraine move into ‘operational phase’ hea says.
- Putin’s response to the ceasefire is “not good enough”, Starmer said.
- European military leaders will meet as early as Thursday in Britain to discuss sending peacekeepers to Ukraine.
- The British prime minister also emphasized that any peace plan for Ukraine requires mandatory U.S. involvement.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Massive student-led protests erupted today and tonight throughout the Serbia Capital of Belgrade, the largest in decades, as hundreds of thousands call for the resignation of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and an end to his authoritarian regime which has been in power since 2012. The protests are seen as a culmination of months of smaller civil actions across Serbia, following the collapse of a concrete canopy at a train station back in November, which killed 15. Vučić claimed that the protests were being organized and planned by Western Intelligence Services, and that the protesters were trying to start a civil war and carry out attacks on authorities.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Large US airstrike hit Houthis
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF Spokesperson: Earlier today, two terrorists were identified who operated a drone that posed a threat to IDF forces in the Beit Lahia area in Gaza. The IDF attacked the terrorists. Afterwards, several additional terrorists collected the drone operating equipment in the attack area and entered the vehicle. The IDF attacked the terrorists.
***
Hamxs and Islamic Jihad denounce the U.S. strike on Yemen.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Two Hezbollah operatives were killed in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon earlier today, the military says. According to the Israeli army, the pair were carrying out surveillance on the border and were involved in advancing attacks on Israel from the Yater and Mays al-Jabal area
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US has begun a large-scale strike operation against Houthi targets in Yemen. Some reports indicate that this is just the start of a multi-day operation. Trump reportedly authorized the mission on Friday.
The strikes were carried out by fighter jets from the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman, as well as by Air Force fighter jets and armed drones launched from bases in the area, American officials said.
U.S. Central Command released footage showing the launch of F/A-18E “Super Hornets” with Strike Fighter Squadron 143 (VFA-143) and EA-18G “Growlers” with Electronic Attack Squadron 144 (VAQ-144), from onboard the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) in the Northern Red Sea, for tonight’s strikes against Houthi radars, air defenses, missile and drone systems, as well as other terrorist targets in Western Yemen.
US Central Command also released footage of Tomahawk cruise missiles being launched at Yemen, as well as footage of the airstrikes on a residential compound.
US forces struck in at least four waves of strikes.
***
According to the New York Times, citing two unnamed senior U.S. officials, the strikes included naval strikes as well and could last for several days. They could intensify in scope and scale depending on the how the Houthis react.
Additionally, the ongoing strike campaign is also meant to send a message to Iran, who has continued to sow conflict in the region by, with, and through its regional proxies.
US targeted four areas in Yemen;
•Sanaa – Capital of Yemen
•Saada – Houthi stronghold in northern Yemen
•Dhamar – City in central Yemen
•Al-Bayda – City in central Yemen
Analysis of the attack reports suggests the pattern of the strikes indicate a possible assassination attempt on a high-ranking Ansarallah member.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. targeted the homes of senior Houthi officials in Sanaa, Yemen, during the operation.
According to initial reports, Hassan Sharaf al-Din, a senior Houthi figure, was killed in US airstrikes in Sanaa. This is yet to be confirmed.
***
President Trump issued a statement after U.S. airstrikes on Houthi terrorists in Yemen.
“To the Houthi terrorists, YOUR TIME IS UP, AND ATTACKS MUST STOP, STARTING TODAY. IF THEY DON’T, HELL WILL RAIN DOWN UPON YOU LIKE NETHING YOU HAVE EVER SEEN BEFORE!”
...and to Iran, your support for the Houthi terrorists must end now
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth Issues a threat to Iran:
“Houthi attacks on American ships & aircraft (and our troops!) will not be tolerated; and Iran, their benefactor, is on notice.”
Houthi political spokesman Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti, after the U.S. strikes:
“We will meet escalation with escalation, and the one who starts it is the most unjust.”
***
Houthi response was limited -
A Houthi missile launched from Yemen landed in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula overnight, not far from the coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh. The Israeli army is investigating whether the missile intended to target Israel, although so far is unable to verify this.
Another Houthi missile was intercepted by the US over the Red Sea.
***
U.S. bases in Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait and Iraq have been placed on a heightened state of alert
***
Iraqi Shiite insurgent faction “Kataib Sarkhat al-Quds” (formerly “Ashab al-Kahf”) has declared, “we are ready and are at the beck and call of [Houthi] leaders to respond to these crimes by targeting the interests of the American enemy in the region, wherever they may be.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Trump ordered a strike on the Houthis larger than the combined attacks from the biden regime, and they may not be finished. As Ive said time and again on this subject, arabs respect strength and force. biden’s one and done attacks had little impact. The strength and intensity of this overnight attack (and if there are follow-on strikes) suggests to me that Trump understands how to get a message to Iran and its proxy elements.
The broad range of attack methods - USN and USAF jets and cruise missiles - suggest a well thought out plan. We will have to see if more strikes are in the offing later today. Hopefully heavy bombers (B1, B2 and B52) will come in the next phase. A second round of bombing is a necessary exclamation point.
Another key point is that Houthi leadership was targeted. One probable kill, the rest probably bugged out to a tent in the desert. It may not work out well for them there - ask Gaddafi.
The Iranians may well be wetting themselves following the airstrikes on Houthis. A stated goal of the attack was a warning to Iran. Israel’s assets ripped them pretty harshly in the last attack and this attack by US assets in a joint effort with Israel would be a nightmare. Iranian air defense assets are insufficient and will be quickly put out of operation, giving coalition aircraft free reign over Iran. This would include US heavy bombers with the massive ordnance penetrator bombs needed for deep nuclear facilities.
My concerns over an Iranian strike are two fold. First the threat to the Straits of Hormuz and second Iran’s ability for a follow-on strike against US bases in the Gulf as well as the host nations. The Truman is well positioned for the Houthi operation, but is too far away to significantly influence action in the Persian Gulf. If more naval assets are moved close to the Persian Gulf in the near future, Iran should start sweating bullets.
On the Gaza front, Hamas is pushing the concept of the release of only American living and dead in an apparent effort to split the US / Israeli pressure on them. Trump has made it pretty clear, All means ALL, American and Jewish hostages. With that, all movement is at a stalemate.