CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Protests are growing in NY opposing the arrest and pending deportation of Mahmoud Khalil, currently in an ICE facility in Louisiana. Overnight, protestors took to the streets, blocking traffic and singling out Tesla owners for violence.
Speaking on Tesla violence, more attacks are occurring at dealerships across the country.
OBSERVATION - Khalil seems to be the potential catalyst for larger scale leftist protest in the near term. How much violence is yet to be seen.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
A three-week market sell-off intensified on Monday, with investors worried that tariff policy uncertainty would tip the economy into a recession, something President Donald Trump did not rule out over the weekend in an interview.
The S&P 500 shed 2.7%, touching its lowest level since September at one point and closing at 5,614.56. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite saw the biggest selling of the major averages, falling 4% for its worst session since September 2022 and closing at 17,468.32. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 890.01 points, or 2.08%, ending at 41,911.71.
CNBC
RELATED -
(FO) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there will be a “detox period” as the Trump administration shifts economic growth from public spending to the private sector.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Trump administration economic policies will lead to a “three or four percent growth” in U.S. GDP, and the Trump administration is attempting a pivot to increasing manufacturing jobs while reducing government employment
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - I’ve noted the US economy has been in a precarious position for much of the past four years - following the wuhan lockdowns. The Fed’s printing of money, overinflated the markets has created a massive bubble and Trumps effort to rebalance and reenergize the economy has the potential to cause a strong correction. Short term we could see the Dow enter correction levels of losses. Longer term depends on other factors in the economy.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024
Dark Storm has claimed they carried out a Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack on 𝕏. Dark Storm, better described as a left-of-center hacktivist group, has taken responsibility for/made claims of past actions against critical civilian infrastructure and government websites, citing the United States’ support for Israel as the main motivator for their actions. Their history suggests geopolitical motives, and they have expressed support for Hamas.
Musk indicated that the attack came via Ukraine.
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. State Department Launches AI based “Catch and Revoke” Visa Crackdown
The State Department is canceling visas of foreign students deemed “pro-Hamxs”, using AI to scan social media and reviewing arrests linked to 10/7 protests. - Axios
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A judge has blocked the possible deportation of a Palestinian man who co-leads a radical group in NYC allied to Hamas. The Columbia University Apartheid Divest group said it supports killing people and even terrorist attacks
A Federal Judge in New York City has halted the deportation of Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian activist known for organizing last year’s occupation at Columbia University in support of Hamas, while the Court considers a lawsuit challenging the legality of the revocation of his Legal Permanent Resident Status and his arrest Saturday by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The first hearing in the case is scheduled for Wednesday at 11:30am in Lower Manhattan.
OBSERVATION - the NY Judge is treading on very thin ice. The law is very clear that green card holders are NOT exempt from deportation and loss of that card when they participate in illegal activities. That card is a privilege and is not a substitute for citizenship. If he attempts to force the issue anyway, it is very likely he’ll be struck down on appeal (which should never have to be the case IF these activist judges actually followed the law). This is the hill illegal supporters are apparently looking to die on and it likely will not end well for them.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 70s range.
Ukraine and US negotiators are meeting in Saudi Arabia to work out positions for the potential cease fire and eventual peace talks with Russia. Reportedly Zelensky sent a letter to the US delegation apologizing for the blow up at the WH last month.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another large Russian drone and missile attack overnight. Out of 126 Shahed drones, 79 were shot down and 35 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
A single launched Iskander-M ballistic missile was shot down.
Russian losses per 11/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1300 men
+11 tanks
+23 AFVs
+75 artillery pieces
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system
+134 service vehicles
Tonight’s Ukrainian drone attack against Moscow is the first attack by Ukraine against the Russian capital in 2025, and likely the largest since the large-scale drone attack against the city in September of 2024, which consisted of well over 140 drones targeting Moscow.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims 337 drones were shot down
Overnight, Ukrainian drones also struck the “Stalny Kon” oil depot in Oryol and the Dyagilevo airfield near Ryazan. Consequences are still being clarified but fires could be seen.
The Shebekino-based company ZAO “Kraski” has been billowing smoke across the region since early morning.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that at least 60 drones were intercepted and destroyed before breaching the city’s defenses.
Ukraine claims drone strikes at the Moscow Oil refinery and Stalnoy Kon (Steel Horse) oil depot in Oryol region
Kursk Front -
Attacks by Russia are down by 2/3s from the trend of last week, suggesting that the counter offensive is about at its end.
Summary —
I’ll bet Russia will launch a major retaliatory cruise and ballistic missile strike within the next 48 hours.
On the ground, Kursk was the most active sector over the past week but overnight’s activity has shown a significant decline.
Ukraine is still in a precarious position with the loss of not only US material support, but intelligence as well. France is attempting to fill the gap, but doesn’t have the tactical oriented assets the US has access to.
Poland –
(FO) Polish Prime Minister Tusk told his parliament on Friday that they needed to “pursue the most modern capabilities related to nuclear weapons,” consider leaving an international anti-personnel mine ban, and train every adult male for war.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IAF launched massive airstrikes in S Syria.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Qatar confirms that Hamas rejected the “partial solutions” presented in an initial conversation by Trump envoy Adam Boehler.
During the talks, Hamas proposed an agreement that included a decade-long ceasefire and refused to give up weapons.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
In the most extensive Israeli airstrike in Syria in over two months, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out dozens of attacks from Monday night into early Tuesday, striking military sites affiliated with Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s regime. According to the IDF, the strikes in southern Syria targeted radar installations, aerial detection systems, and military headquarters, as well as weapons depots and other military infrastructure used by the new regime.
The IDF stated that “the presence of these systems in southern Syria poses a threat to Israel and to IDF operations. These targets were struck to eliminate future threats.” The wave of strikes marks the most significant Israeli military action in Syria in recent months, as Israel seeks to counter the growing military presence of the new regime.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h1wacu6jjg#autoplay
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis threaten to renew attacks on Israel today if Gaza aid is not resumed, N12 News reports
IDF elevates readiness for renewed missile & drone attacks from Yemen; air defenses are on alert, including Arrow, Maariv Online reports. After a long pause, sirens may be activated again in Israel’s cities this week.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Waiting for the Gaza and Iranian strikes. Hamas continues to try to extend based upon threats to the lives of the remaining hostages to coerce Israeli public opinion into submitting to their demands. Both Trump and Netanyahu have indicated that there is a final deadline after which Israel will drop the hammer. When that date is is not known but one likely possibly is after Ramadan, and Hamas will wake up to the massive April Fools strike of the war. Similar for Iran. Attacking during Ramadan (and around Passover) not good for keeping arabs pacified and civilians engaged in the support for the war.
Truce agreements between the Druze and the Syrian govt are interesting development. I’m not sure the druze community is monolithic in support of the agreement. Israel had offered to open up Druze workers coming into Israel - now that may be on hold. No matter what, Israel will still maintain a military presence in the former buffer zone and maintain contact with the Druze to keep them favorably inclined.
Syria -
Kurdish-led, US-backed SDF agrees to integrate into Syrian state institutions.
Under the deal:
-The Syrian government will take over control of borders, airports, and oil and gas fields in northeastern Syria
-The Kurdish community is guaranteed Syrian citizenship
-ceasefire in all Syrian territories
In the signed agreement, SDF demands in part that all Turkish forces be expelled from Syria.
HTS demands are handing over 10K ISIS prisoners and expel PKK from the country.
Al Jazeera report: After yesterday’s agreement with the Kurds, the new regime in Syria has reached agreements with the Druze in the country regarding their integration into the state systems and security services.
If true, this will mean an Israeli presence in southern Syria and at the top of Mt. Hermon for an indefinite period.
NOTE - SDF is allies with the US in counter ISIS operations in northern and eastern Syria.
***
Hezbollah affiliates have joined the fight against HTS. This is on the Lebanon -Syria border near Tartus.
***
It is estimated that over 7,000 Christians and Alawites have been murdered in Syria in the last two days.
Thanks Godzilla.
Week is transitioning to be very busy
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Columbia University refuses to help the US Department of Homeland Security in identifying students who have been linked to pro-Hamas activities on campus, the White House stated on Tuesday, according to JNS.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt revealed that DHS has compiled a list of individuals believed to be in violation of US President Donald Trump’s executive order aimed at combating antisemitism.
“They have been using intelligence to identify individuals on our nation’s colleges and universities—on our college campuses—who have engaged in such behavior and activity, and especially illegal activity,” Leavitt told reporters.
“I don’t have a readout on how many arrests will come, but I do know that DHS is actively working on it,” she continued. “I also know that Columbia University has been given the names of other individuals, who have engaged in pro-Hamas activity, and they are refusing to help DHS identify those individuals on campus.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/405231
RELATED -
College students in New York held various walkouts today so they would be free to spend the day protesting on behalf of pro-Hamas organizer Mamoud Khalil. It then became a gathering in Washington Square Park. The NY Post says there were about 350 people.
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/03/11/a-dozen-arrests-made-at-the-latest-free-khalil-march-n3800671
About 12 were arrested
OBSERVATION - Some observers are indicting that these protests are growing in violence potential.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
Trump says violence against Tesla dealerships will be labeled as domestic terrorism - Reuters
Also note that Tesla owners are increasingly becoming targets of violence and vandalism, not just dealerships.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
Egg prices now below pre-Trump levels
Pre-Jan. 20, 2025: $6.12/dozen
March 10, 2025: $6.08/dozen
Previously, economic analysts projected that egg prices would rise by 41% in 2025, further fueling concerns.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Yesterday Science Alert reported that an outbreak in the USA of tuberculosis (“TB”) began in January 2024 in Kansas City, Kansas, and two nearby counties. To date, 147 people have been diagnosed with TB with 67 becoming ill.
TB is always present in our environment but people only become ill with TB when their immune systems are weakened or damaged.
What could cause people’s immune systems to weaken so latent infections become active? Covid “vaccines,” for one. We have published numerous articles over the years about the detrimental effect the covid injections have on our immune systems, highlighting indications that the “vaccines” are causing vaccine-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (“VAIDS”). Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (“AIDS”) is used to describe several potentially life-threatening infections and illnesses that happen when your immune system has been severely damaged. People with AIDS have an increased risk of developing certain cancers and serious infections that usually occur only in people with a weak immune system. Infections that would otherwise be mild in those with healthy, working immune systems.
https://expose-news.com/2025/03/11/tb-has-reappeared-in-the-us-why/
OBSERVATION - Many scientists now revealing that wuhan jab mRNA is the culprit. In the past, TB cases were also directly related to illegals who crossed into the US, bringing the disease with them. Now we could be seeing the combination of the two.
More and more evidence indicates that the mRNA jab was designed to attack humans, not stop the wuhan virus.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
The Republican-led House voted Tuesday to pass a six-month funding bill that would prevent a government shutdown at the end of the week, overcoming fierce Democratic objections.
The vote was 217-213, with all Republicans but Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky supporting the continuing resolution. One Democrat, Rep. Jared Golden of Maine, voted for it.
Now the senate has it and republicans need democrat crossovers to pass. Democrats continue to threaten to vote against it and for a govt shut down.
***
A senior official at the U.S. Agency for International Development instructed the agency’s remaining staff on Tuesday to pull classified and personal documents from safes and shred and burn them, according to an email verified by The New York Times.
“Shred as many documents first, and reserve the burn bags for when the shredder becomes unavailable or needs a break,” read the email written by acting USAID executive secretary Erica Y. Carr.
The Times reported it is unclear if Carr got permission from the National Archives and Records Administration to destroy the documents. The Federal Records Act of 1950 mandates government workers obtain approval from NARA before destroying documents.
USAID, which has a long tradition of operating front organizations on behalf of the CIA, could have documents pertaining to national intelligence, as well as documents from court cases filed against the Trump administration.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/usaid-nara-erica-carr/2025/03/11/id/1202400/
Anna Kelly, a spokesperson for the White House, downplayed such concerns in a social media post late Tuesday.
“This was sent to roughly three dozen employees,” Kelly wrote. “The documents involved were old, mostly courtesy content (content from other agencies), and the originals still exist on classified computer systems. More fake news hysteria!”
OBSERVATION - Just what the heck is the story here? Very suspicious actions to say the least.
***
Department of Education staff will receive “reduction in force” notices Tuesday before nearly half of the department’s workforce is terminated, Fox News Digital has learned.
Earlier Tuesday, a memo was sent to all Education Department employees informing them that Department of Education offices will be closed Tuesday evening through Wednesday due to “security reasons.” Employees were instructed to leave the offices by 6 p.m. ET Tuesday.
“Today’s reduction in force reflects the Department of Education’s commitment to efficiency, accountability, and ensuring that resources are directed where they matter most: to students, parents, and teachers,” Education Secretary Linda McMahon said in a statement
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nearly-half-department-education-staff-set-eliminated-imminently
***
The US House just EXTENDED the statute of limitations for people who committed COVID fraud, allowing those who stole COVID relief funds to continue to be prosecuted. 295/127
***
Oversight Committee discovered that Biden’s “pardons” had all have the same autopen signature:
- Biden Family Members
- Anthony Fauci
- General Milley
- J6 Committee
- Gerald Lundergan
The key issue is whether Biden was aware of and approved the documents signed in his name using the autopen.
https://x.com/immeme0/status/1899617775812837639?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
OBSERVATION - Follow-on to the Missouri AG lawsuit into the matter as well.
Just WHO was actually running the WH.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Well, that didn’t take too long. The Canadian province of Ontario has backed down after threatening to levy a surcharge on electricity to three U.S. states as President Donald Trump threatened to double the tariff he has already placed on Canadian goods.
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/jeff-charles/2025/03/11/canada-bows-to-trump-in-tariff-war-n2653640
OBSERVATION - 50% Tariff threat got his attention. Reportedly Canada has a GDP smaller than TX, they are trying to punch way over their weight in this matter.
***
Trump administration across-the-board 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports went into effect overnight. The new tariffs will remove exemptions to previous 25% steel tariffs.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump’s selection of a Tesla car at the WH is causing liberal heads to explode, especially when they forgot that biden pulled a stunt with Jeep.
Illegal Immigration –
The number of illegal U.S.-bound migrants passing through the dangerous Darién jungle plummeted by nearly 99 percent during the month of February 2025 when compared to February 2024, Panama’s Migrant Authority revealed this week.
In its most recently published statistical report, Panama’s Migrant Authority indicated that it recorded a total of 408 migrants passing through the Darién Gap during February 2025 — an amount that represents a 98.9-percent drop from the total of 37,166 migrants logged during February 2024. Similarly, February 2025’s statistics indicate a 81.68 percent reduction in the number of migrants when compared to the 2,229 migrants recorded by the Authority during January 2025.
OBSERVATION - Headwaters for much illegal traffic is shutting down. Good news in the long term for border security and reduced crossings.
NGO’s that once were receiving US $$$ to help these illegals thru this section being shut down has likely also contributed.
Russia -
The Kremlin: No date or venue for the talks between Presidents Putin and Trump has yet been determined.
The Kremlin: There is no need to rush Russia’s response to the 30-day truce proposal in Ukraine.
***
Bloomberg reported on March 11 that Western security officials stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has “no intention” of making compromises on territory, peacekeepers, or Ukrainian neutrality and that Putin is prepared to continue fighting if he doesn’t achieve his objectives in his war in Ukraine.
The officials stated that Putin has deliberately made “maximalist” demands, knowing that Ukraine and Europe would likely find these demands unacceptable. Western security officials’ reports of the Kremlin’s intention to achieve its “maximalist” goals in Ukraine are consistent with Putin’s and other Russian officials’ public statements, even as the Kremlin has attempted to posture itself as open to negotiations and ending the war.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1899630514727948745?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
OBSERVATIONS - Trump has attained his desired capitulation from Ukraine, now must face a much more obstinate putin. I’ve noted that putin is not so invulnerable as his propaganda puts out. There are many economic tools Trump has at his disposal that can put serious hurt on Russia’s economy.
There are also military related options via Ukraine such as clearing the way for the destruction of the Kerch Bridge - though that runs contra to his stated goal for non-military solutions. This next month may become very interesting to see just how Trump is able to force putin to the table.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 70s range.
RUMINT – Kursk operation is coming to an end? Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine forces have begun a pullout.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine has accepted the 30 day ceasefire proposal, now waiting on Russia.
The Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine confirmed that U.S. military assistance has already been resumed.
Ukraine’s Air Force conducted operations against missiles and drones overnight. Out of 133 Shahed drones, 98 were shot down and another 20 were lost in location, likely suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russia also launched 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. No results were reported on this particular attack.
At least one Russian ballistic missile hit the Barbados-flagged MJ Pinar this evening in Odessa, killing four of its crew, three Syrians and one Ukrainian.
Russian losses per 12/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1430 men
+3 tanks
+7 AFVs
+44 artillery pieces
+1 MLRS
+69 service vehicles
Summary —
Casuality uptick may reflect delayed reporting from Kursk. Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine may be working to withdraw from Kursk are circulating. It is known that the recent Russian counterattack managed to threaten Ukraine supply lines. It is also uncertain to what degree the Ukraine acceptance of the Trump 30 day ceasefire has had.
Rough night for Ukraine air defenses as an unusual number of Shaheds got thru. This is also the second ballistic missile strike on the Odesa seaport.
If being forced back, and given putin’s continued statements of reluctance to stop the war, the excess forces used in Kursk could be shifted to the south and throw into the Donbas efforts at Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. Ukraine forces coming out may need time to refit and re-arm before being committed back to the front lines. This could threaten a localized collapse of the Ukraine defense.
Europe / NATO General –
The captain of the Solong cargo ship arrested after a collision with a tanker in the North Sea is a Russian national, the ship’s owner has confirmed.
Humberside Police said the 59-year-old man remained in custody after being arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter on Tuesday.
The Portuguese-flagged Solong and the US-registered tanker Stena Immaculate crashed off the East Yorkshire coast at about 10:00 GMT on Monday.
Whitehall sources have told the BBC there were Russians and Filipinos among the crew of the Solong.
The BBC understands all of the crew on board the Stena Immaculate are Americans who are currently in Grimsby and will be repatriated in due course.
The Stena Immaculate was carrying 220,000 barrels of aviation fuel to be used by the US military.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c30mj5gq9d5o
OBSERVATION - Latest news is that the arrested man was the captain of there Solong - a Russian national. Stong suspicion that this was an asymmetrical ‘attack’ on the US and Europe.
Investigation by the BBC at link below shows there Sterna at anchor with other tankers - in a designated area commonly used. The Solong is tracked coming out of the northwest and doesn’t slow and maneuver thru the anchored ships like others have before it, but heads straight into the flank of the Sterna. Looks VERY deliberate.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-67181505
***
The nine judges of the Constitutional Court unanimously rejected on Tuesday the appeal filed by Călin Georgescu, upholding the decision of the Central Electoral Bureau to invalidate his candidacy in the presidential elections in May.
***
Macron has called on military leaders from 30 countries to plan security guarantees for Ukraine after a “peace deal” is reached. He also backed the 30-day ceasefire and progress in Ukraine-U.S. negotiations.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Back and forth on hostages and cease fire extension.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel, Lebanon agree to start negotiations to resolve disputes over their land borders
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli military leaders reconfirm to protect Druze populations in S Syria.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Rumored US airstrike on key Houthi radar site. No details or confirmation.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Things relatively quiet, but can break out at any moment. Right now, Hamas’ refusal to compromise on anything is dooming them to resumed fighting in the near future. Again, my best guess is after Ramadan / Passover time frame.
Watching the Houthis to see if they are going to carry out their threat to resume attacks against Red Sea shipping. I see the Trump administration more willing to strike back and strike back harder should they do.
Iran –
Iranian President Pezeshkian to Trump: “I won’t negotiate with you under threats. Do whatever the hell you want.”
FAFO moment inbound
Syria -
Under the cover of recent announced agreements with the Kurdish SDF and Druze, the slaughter of Christians, Alawites and other minorities continue to be conducted by Syrian HTS affiliated militias.
Turkey –
Turkish Defense Ministry: Our operations continue in northeastern Syria against Kurdish militias.
OBSERVATION - Openly, Turkey is pointing to the PKK elements, however, they consider ALL Kurds to be terrorists. May have to see what the new Syrian agreement with the Kurds have to say.