Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Globalism / Great Reset –

There is one magazine that represents the interests of the global elite more than any other. It is known as “The Economist”, and each year it puts out an issue that is dedicated to what is coming in the year ahead. As we have seen so many times before, these issues tend to be alarmingly accurate.

The reason why they are so accurate is because the ultra-wealthy elite have an enormous amount of influence over the course of human events. If they are absolutely determined to make something happen, there is a good chance that it is going to happen.

Ominously, it appears that they are anticipating a great deal of global chaos in 2026.

The Economist has been around since 1843, but it has never had a very large readership among the general population.

Ultimately, it is a publication by the elite and for the elite.

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=9165#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Snyder of the “End of the American Dream “ is a quintessential doomer and many of his predictions just haven’t paned out over the years.

However, his observations on the issue of “The Economist” are similar to those made over the years by many others, as us common people try to read the tea leaves at to what the elite are thinking. Even at that point, many claims on past covers haven’t really panned out either. This is 2025 and the world has entered a post-wuhan time of increasing chaos and the symbology reflects that. 2026 could prove to be a major year in the world and where it is headed.

Just a matter of keeping our eyes and ears open for advance inklings of the globalist plans and actions to bring those plans about.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of NOV 17, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
Charlotte NC - Local Threat - WARNING as of Nov 21, 2025
New Orleans LA - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025

NOTE - Changes to the above. Portland downgraded as violent actions have decreased, though the threat could change. Charlotte and New Orleans added as a surge on illegals has started and some leftists are working to counter operations. Los Angeles is dropped as activity has fallen to previous baseline levels.

DATES TO NOTE -
.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***
Weekend Forecast - Announced demonstrations in DC by “Removal Coalition”, do not appear to be mobilizing many at this stage.
Elsewhere, same old minor signs and shouting at sites across the country with very limited potential for violence.

Considerable chances of violence associated with ICE / BP arrests of illegals, particularly in the Charlotte NC area (note change in local threat status above).
As always, conditions can change rapidly depending on local and national events. Be alert to local news.

***
“Removal Coalition” rally today, not much on the web concerning this event.

***
(FO) A coalition of activist groups called for “coordinated economic shutdown” they are calling The Mass Blackout (Nov 26 - Dec 2.)

The coalition urged Americans to stop online and in-person shopping, stop work, and “remove the regime.” The coalition includes Blackout the System, The People’s Sick Day, The Progressive Network, American Opposition, and the Money Out of Politics Movement.

Indivisible, the country’s largest protest organizing group, also called for a boycott of Home Depot, Target, and Amazon from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.

NOTABLE FO ANALYSIS - Boycotts, strikes, and other tactics that are disruptive to an economy are often vital parts of resistance and revolutionary movements. What separates a boycott as a form of protest and one of resistance or revolution is intent. As a form of protest, a boycott is aimed at getting a company to choose a different policy. As a form of resistance or revolution, a boycott is intended to build economic pressure against the sitting government to resign or abdicate. So, when a protest movement like “Blackout the System” engages in boycotts to “remove the regime,” it’s not a simple protest, but a tactic of a revolutionary movement.

MY OBSERVATION - Growing development of a ‘color’ revolution focusing on a sector or pillar of society to place pressure on the governing administration.

How successful with this be? Probably only the hard core will turn out. The rank and file progressive democrats rely too much on these businesses to avoid and boycott them all together. Leftist boycotts haven’t been very successful in the past, in comparison to those by the right, “go woke, go broke” is one example.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025

A new report reveals how artificial intelligence programs, ChatGPT and others, have been documented to advise those with ill intentions “on how to attack a sports venue, buy nuclear material on the dark web, weaponize anthrax, build spyware, bombs” and more.

It is in an extensive documentation compiled by the Middle East Media Research Institute that the startling warnings are contained.

In the report, Gen. (Ret.) Paul E. Funk II, formerly the commander of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, explained, “Artificial Intelligence (AI), the rapidly developing technology, has captured the attention of terrorists, from al-Qaida through ISIS to Hamas, Hizbullah, and the Houthis.”

He cites the study, “Terrorists’ Use Of AI So Far - A Three-Year Assessment 2022-2025,” for its “unsettling contribution to the public debate on AI’s future global impact.”

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=9164

OBSERVATION - More at link. Very disturbing but not surprising. Evil will use all resources at hand to conduct evil. And AI today seems more than willing to produce the information

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Tyson Foods, America’s largest meat supplier, is planning to close one of its largest beef-processing plants in Nebraska at a time when a cattle shortage in the U.S. squeezes meatpacking companies

OBSERVATION - True that US cattle herds are down, Tyson has proceeded to decimate the meat processing sector ever since wuhan, and that portion of the industry is still suffering. Some going a far as to suggest that this is a covert effort to damage the food chain here in america - remember how the globalist are waging war against meat - wanting people to eat bugs instead.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Marjorie Taylor Greene has flamed out, as she has announced that she is resigning from the House of Representatives, effective January 5, 2026. Her seat will be filled by a special election

OBSERVATION - Well, bye meme

***
The U.S Supreme Court has overturned a lower court and rules that Texas redistricting map is perfectly legal

OBSERVATION - The opinion was rather scathing.

***
President Donald Trump called for Democrats who participated in a video calling for U.S. military personnel and federal employees to “refuse illegal orders” to be put on trial for “seditious behavior” yesterday.

OBSERVATION - On cue, these democrat cry bullies are saying that they are the victims of a mean old Donald Trump. No, in reality they got slapped up side the head with the legal ramifications of what they were trying to accomplish.

What is scary, there are enough senior officers that boot licked their way into the command structure via 0bama and biden that will see this as justification to disobey ANY order they want to deem as ‘illegal’. This is a recipe for revolt people and dangerous as tossing a lighted match into a powder house.

TRUMP Watch –

President Donald Trump and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani had their first face-to-face meeting at the White House. During his visit to the Oval Office on Friday, Trump congratulated Mamdani (D-N.Y.) for his win in the Big Apple.

Mamdani expressed his appreciation for a “productive” meeting with Trump, recalling that the two spoke about affordability, which was the overarching focus of his campaign. He said they discussed rent, groceries, utilities, and “the different ways in which people have been pushed out,” saying that he looked forward to working with Trump to deliver affordability.

https://www.oann.com/newsroom/mamdani-and-trump-have-first-face-to-face-meeting-the-better-he-does-the-happier-i-am/

OBSERVATION - Many on both sides are scratching their heads over the honey sweet, buddy buddy press conference and appearance of congeniality . Some analysts thing Trump played Mamdani like a fiddle, cutting out his radical leftist base, while at the same time reassuring NYC businesses that the wont be allowed to go nutz.

Perhaps an old saying may be in effect - hold your friends close, and your enemies even closer.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025

(FO) The Trump administration’s National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross said the administration’s new National Cyber Strategy will shift the U.S.’s focus from defensive to offensive cyber operations. Cairncross said the new strategy will target adversary state-linked hackers in order to shape adversary behavior and deter future cyber attacks. The new National Cyber Strategy appears to be preemptive offensive actions against foreign adversary cyber operations designed to push foreign adversaries out of that gray area.

Illegal Immigration –

Trump has announced via a post on Truth Social that he will be “terminating, effective immediately” the Temporary Protected Status (TPS Program) for Somalis in Minnesota. There are only around 700 Somalis that are actually on TPS across the United States, with the rescinding of the status requiring a directive from the Department of Homeland Security before the expiration of the next period under the TPS Program for Somalia.

OBSERVATION - Just the tip of the iceberg on the Somalian problem in Minnesota as there are even more who’ve snuck into the country and congregated into the community where they can be camouflaged from the prying eyes of ICE / BP

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

***
ISW. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to indicate that his demands have not fundamentally changed since the August 2025 Alaska summit.

Other Key Takeaways:

Reported Russian government insiders also indicated that the Kremlin does not support the proposed 28-point peace plan.

Russian officials are setting informational conditions to reject the 28-point peace plan, which acquiesces to many — but not all — of Russia’s persistent war demands.

The Kremlin has thus far failed to set conditions for the Russian people to accept anything less than a full Russian victory in Ukraine.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1992095511168348583?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - I’ll try to tie up the Russian / Ukraine plan below in Misc

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-40 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.

RUMINT –

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Trump has threatened to cut intelligence sharing and arms supplies for Ukraine to force it into accepting the framework of a U.S.-brokered peace deal, Reuters reported Friday citing two unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
Washington has presented Ukraine with a 28-point plan seen as endorsing some of Russia’s key demands, including further territorial concessions, curbing the size of the Ukrainian military as well as foreclosing Ukraine’s path to join NATO.

Kyiv, it is understood, is under greater pressure from Washington than during any previous peace discussions, expected to sign a framework of the deal by next Thursday.

***
Overnight, Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile from occupied Crimea and 104 attack drones including Shahed, Geran, and others from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense managed to shoot down or jam 89 of them. Hits were recorded at 15 locations.

Explosion was reported in Odesa region, from a ballistic missile strike

Russian losses per 22/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1170 men
+4 tanks
+7 ACVs
+9 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Pokrovsk direction, where the situation remains serious and dynamic.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Ukraine still tenaciously holding on to areas of the Pokrovsk pocket. I still believe it has become a losing battle and they need to be careful not to let a sizable force get trapped.

Trump’s peace plan demands - See my comment below under Misc.

Poland –

Poland’s lower chamber of Parliament unanimously voted to move the Russian Embassy in Poland due to its proximity to the Polish Defense Ministry. Politicians previously raised this issue for decades but tabled it to maintain stable relations with Russia.

Europe / NATO General –

Ukraine’s allies will seek to “strengthen” a US plan to end the war with Russia when they meet at the G20 summit in South Africa, UK PM Sir Keir Starmer has said.

The summit begins a day after President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Ukraine faced “one of the most difficult moments in our history” over pressure to accept the plan - leaked details of which have been seen as favourable to Moscow.

Zelensky held phone talks with Sir Keir and the leaders of France and Germany on Friday. Afterwards, the PM said Ukraine’s “friends and partners” remained committed to securing a “lasting peace once and for all”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyx9xnpll8o

OBSERVATION - Uniformly, European allies have rejected the Trump plan, seeing it essentially as a surrender by Ukraine and a threat to longer term peace and stability in Europe. This ‘plan’ may have caught many of them by surprise since Trump had been hardening against putin of late.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas bunkers/tunnels continued to be destroyed

- Hamas fighters trying to escape trapped in tunnels in Yellow zone being taken out or captured.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

The Israeli army is using large quantities of explosives to destroy buildings in the northern Gaza Strip, and the sounds of explosions can be heard in the settlements surrounding Gaza. Most likely Hamas underground tunnels/bunkers.

***
Earlier today (Friday), approximately 15 terrorists emerged from underground terror infrastructure at two different locations east of the yellow line in eastern Rafah.

Following ISA intelligence, the IAF has so far eliminated six terrorists.
Simultaneously, IDF troops apprehended five terrorists who surrendered to them and were transferred for further questioning by the ISA inside Israel.

One captured terrorist: “We went out of the tunnel in search of food and water”.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli conduct anti-terror operations in Silwad town, northeast of Ramallah

———INTERNATIONAL ————————

Ankara has announced that it is recruiting 2,000 Turkish soldiers and training them as a brigade that will join the International Stabilization Force (ISF), slated to deploy in the Gaza Strip as part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan. This step dovetails with another Turkish move revealed a few days ago, the issuance of 37 arrest warrants against senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on allegations of war crimes and genocide.

These developments come as Ankara invests heavily in increasing visibility in Gaza via Turkish and Palestinian aid organizations. Turkish posters and flags are flying across the Strip, including on bulldozers clearing debris and searching for deceased hostages.

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=9162

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

International noise over the trapped Hamas fighters has effectively disappeared and recent capture of those attempting to escape tell the story that their supplies are running out and their position to remain in the tunnels is becoming precarious. Good.

Israel has flat out rejected any Turkish military presence in Gaza. Turkey is as hostile towards Israel as Hamas and will not be a good mix.

Movement towards an expanded operation against Hezbollah continues to grow and develop.

Iraq -

ISW. Iraqi Government Formation: Iranian-backed Iraqi Parties Are Poised to Control the Next Government

Iranian-backed political parties are preparing to form the next Iraqi federal government after winning over a third of the seats in the recent parliamentary elections. These parties may exclude or at least weaken Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani, despite his coalition winning the plurality of seats.

OBSERVATION - Iraq’s new government is starting to form. The shift towards Iranian shia elements was accelerated in part by Sadr’s pulling back from the elections and not having an Iraqi shia to counter balance Iran’s version of shia.

Looks like at the bottom line, Iraq is facing a period of instability, though at this stage no outright rebellion.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

Lebanese Health Ministry: Israeli airstrike on a car in Nabatieh district, southern Lebanon, kills Hezbollah target

***
The Israeli army followed-up about strike against a Hamas training compound inside the Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp in southern Lebanon earlier this week. The military said it killed 13 militants, including Jawad Sidawi, a trainer involved in plotting attacks from Lebanon against Israel. The military said the site demonstrates Hamas’ growing presence in Lebanon despite Beirut’s pledge to disarm armed groups in the camps

***
Sarit Zehavi, a leading Israeli security expert on Hezbollah from the Israel Alma Research and Education Center, told Fox News Digital that Hezbollah does not currently “have the capability to carry out an October invasion. They had it prior to Oct. 7, 2023. They can send in a few terrorists. I want to believe it will take a few years to get those capabilities back.”

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-105/

OBSERVATION - Like I noted previously, Hezbollah lost a lot of its capabilities to launch a large scale ground assault on Israel. Their primary elements will be their limited missile/rocket stockage and resistance to any Israeli ground operations. With out a doubt, Mossad intelligence has a long list of prioritized targets should the go order be given to intensify operations against Hezbollah.

Misc of Note –

What is with Trumps sudden switch back on the Ukraine war. In just the past few weeks, Trump unleashed a new round of sanctions on Russia and roped in many supporting countries, like India, to cease oil purchases - noting explicitly how Russia has been disingenuous in its willingness to talk peace and end its aggression.

Now all of a sudden, Ukraine has been given a deadline to accept a “peace” plan that will decimate the country and essentially give Russia nearly all of its demands - all on the backs of Ukraine.

On the Russian side, Putin continues to indicate that his demands have not fundamentally changed since the August 2025 Alaska summit. Total capitulation of Ukraine to Russian rule.

Additionally, the kremlin says it rejects the plan. This brings up a very BIG question - just who in the heck was this “Russian” Witcoff reportedly “negotiated’ this deal with?

Smells like Lucy holding the football again. putin wants to undermine western support for Ukraine and what better way than to sow dissension arising from a ‘peace’ plan that will not see the light of day and Trump some how being convinced to issue a Thursday (Thanksgiving) deadline for Ukraine to accept - except that Ukraine was not part of the plan discussions.

I do not think Trump or Witcoff are grasping putin’s game and that a wildly swinging foreign policy against Russia is not making the world safer. You must have consistency. Regan knew that and held the course that caused the Russian controlled Soviet Union to implode.

You cant one day extend sanctions of Russia and the next try to force Ukraine to essentially surrender. It plays right into putin’s hands

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***
Weekend Forecast - Same old minor signs and shouting at sites across the country with very limited potential for violence.

Considerable chances of violence associated with ICE / BP arrests of illegals, particularly in the Charlotte NC area (not change in local threat status above).
As always, conditions can change rapidly depending on local and national events. Be alert to local news.

***
“Removal Coalition” only had a turnout of a few ‘thousand’, mostly old white people.

***
This video has been out for a while, if you haven’t seen it - do so for your information -

“The wording in the video is so carefully vague, it’s easy enough to agree with what they’ve said, but it is also totally useless. There was no mention at all of what orders given the President has given that have been illegal, because they knew such wording would land the lot of them in court before the echo died. They’re trying to make the case that what Trump is doing with the military is unlawful, but their spineless video utterly fails to do that. It simply implies. So why are they saying it, and just as importantly, why are they saying it NOW? “

“The timing of this thing is important. This vid, whatever else it is, is also a weapon of mass distraction, which was only released when the Democrats recognized they weren’t going to get the mileage out of trying to link Trump to Epstein anymore. When so many Democrats started for the door following Trump signing off on the release of those files, they shifted to this new chant, faster than a trucker can change gears.”

“Clearly this new plan was required to sway the public. It plays directly into this nonsense that Trump is a king, a tyrant, or whatever. Let’s also recall that, as I’ve said so often, the only government program the Democrats don’t like is the military. And guess what? The military knows this very well, so it’s logical to assume that the effect this will cause in the minds of the brave folks in uniform will be minimal. The Democrats know this. The actual target here is not the military, but rather, the voting public.”

“Then, too, please remember that these same Democrats had no problem with Obama hitting and killing US citizens with drones. They said nothing. Now, suddenly they’re all up in arms about an as yet unidentified “illegal order” of Trump? “

https://pjmedia.com/eric-florack/2025/11/22/why-are-democrats-suddenly-trying-to-get-the-military-to-defy-trump-n4946283

OBSERVATION - Other good points at the link. Important to realize that in a world where a ‘color’ revolution is in the early stages of development here, they are attacking a pillar of society - military integrity. I think it is also important to note that a lot has been bantered about concerning a declaration of martial law in the face of riots that may occur initiated by the left in advance of the 2026 mid terms (a la 2020 riots). These democrats are trying to plant seeds of doubt in the minds of culpable soldiers should such an operation occur.

MORE -
As noted before, the left is fomenting a color revolution. To achieve the leverage to overthrow the existing govt, color revolutions attack six key areas of society -

- Business,
- Labor,
- Faith,
- Education,
- Civil Service, and
- Military/Police.

The Six Pillars describe the underlying foundations that keep a government functioning. We can see action currently in all six areas, but more recently developments in the Business/Labor sector - MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2.

Now these congress critters are laying the foundation informational battlefield for the civil service and military/police pillars. Other analysts are indicating that the goal is to set up conditions in 2026 to bring this ‘resistance’ to a head to delegitimize the Trump administration in an effort to win back congress. The left is not afraid of using mass violence, as has broken out in other color revolutions, to try to delegitimize Trump too.

It is important to note that the key organizers and planners for this revolution are those now out of work from USAID and other now dead organizations who’s job was to foment color revolutions in other countries. They are just taking the tools and knowledge and turning them onto the US.

One other critical item I’m noting is that with this whole gang of six situation, Trump has lost a little of the edge of leading the MSM and controlling the focus by his actions. The MSM has risen to the ‘victim’ defense of the six - mean orange man threatening to kill them - defense while whitewashing and ignoring their statements and the purpose of that statement. In a recent press briefing, MSM continually made the claims that Trump was calling for their murder, while the press secretary turned those points back to the actions and statements of the six. The media barrage has made an effort to shape the public thinking that Trump has issued illegal orders to the military, while the MSM and gang of six fail to provide proof of any such orders - only insinuations.

Talking heads today will likely see more of an outrage of Trump threatening the lives of the six - while ignoring or suppressing the intent of their words to delegitimize the administration and sow discord in the ranks.

I don’t see this going away any time soon.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Nivida is causing concerns in the market because it is almost single handedly supporting the tech markets and more importantly the AI sector. It has created a bubble in the market that could burst should any issues come up and Nivida stumbles.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Last night, for around an hour, X enabled the feature that shows the actual location from which a tweet originates. Surprise! All those Gazans, tweeting about starving and dodging enemy fire? Actually located in Russia and Pakistan. Those “America First” advocates, who are hostile to Israel? Not exactly American: they are in Ireland, Pakistan, etc.

Apparently X reverted after an hour or so. Users are hoping the location feature will be made permanent so that more fake accounts will be exposed. We will see. In the meantime, Elon’s move has confirmed what most of us already suspected.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/11/geographic-reveal-exposes-fakes.php#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - This reveal is pretty darn interesting and important. Many indicate that “X” has become a leading source for people’s news and a swarming of essentially fake accounts spreading disinformation once again requires us NOT to believe everything we read on the internet.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Placing this here for situational clarity -

A major rift has erupted over the origins of a leaked 28-point peace plan made to end the Russia-Ukraine war after Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., said Secretary of State Marco Rubio personally told him and multiple senators that the document had been authored by Russia — not the the United States.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/ukraine-peace-plan/2025/11/23/id/1235690/

Following several days of outrage from both Democrats and Republicans in Congress over the 28-point peace agreement for Ukraine, claimed to have been written jointly by senior officials from the U.S. and Russia. Republican Sen. Mike Rounds announced tonight, after speaking with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that the proposal being circulated was a documents written by the Russians, not the United States.

Sen. Angus King stated that the leaked plan, which was allegedly provided to White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff by officials claimed to be representing Russia, was essentially a “wishlist” of demands by Russia and was not the position of the Trump Administration. Neither Rounds, King, nor any other Senator appeared to understand why it took the administration over three days to make clear the 28-point plan was not the policy being pushed by the U.S. State Department.

Republican Senators on the delegation to Halifax stated that they were also told by Secretary Rubio that he was unaware of any “ultimatum” provided to Ukraine requiring their agreement to the ceasefire plan before Thanksgiving, with the threat of pulling material and intelligence support from Kyiv.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1992386686144151708?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told US senators Saturday that the sweeping peace plan to end the nearly four-year war between Russia and Ukraine was not America’s — but merely a “leaked” Russian “wish list,” according to reports.

Rubio told a bipartisan delegation at the Halifax International Security Forum in Canada Saturday afternoon that the 28-point blueprint supposedly crafted to end the war is actually a Russian proposal, not a US initiative, according to South Dakota GOP Sen. Mike Rounds.

“He made it very clear to us that we are the recipients of a proposal that was delivered to one of our representatives,” Rounds said, Politico reported.

Speaking to reporters outside the White House Saturday, Trump said the US proposal was not his “final offer” but warned his patience was running thing, telling The Post that if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejects the plan, “then he can continue to fight his little heart out.”

The State Department appears to be openly accusing a group of Senators of lying about a conversation with Secretary Rubio.

OBSERVATION - A lot of smoke and questions. The sudden appearance of this 28 point document is one point in suggesting that Witkoff screwed up royally by not allowing State Dept review, but going straight to Trump.

Now the blowback is hitting with the administration claiming that it was not and never was the policy of the Trump Administration. However, to let it circulate as long as it did, has likely caused permanent harm to any further negotiations to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Witkoff needs to be taken off any further negotiations. He has screwed up so many times now that this latest developing goat rope is going to take a long time to get straightened out and has placed the country at risk.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-40 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 98 attack drones from multiple directions, including about 60 Shaheds. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or jammed 69 of them. Hits were recorded in 12 locations across the north, south, and east.

Powerful strikes have been reported in occupied Crimea, where drones targeted an oil refinery. Local sources confirm multiple impacts.
Ukrainian forces just hit one of Moscow’s largest power stations, the Shatura TPP. Massive explosion on the northern side of the Russian power plant have been reported.
Mobile power stations are reportedly been deployed to Shatura, following the drone strike. Emergency power is being rushed in to stabilize the local grid.

Russian losses per 23/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+920 men
+2 tanks
+8 ACVs
+26 artillery
+2 MLRS

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation Petrovske(Pazeno) village in Donetsk region and Tykhe and Vidradne in Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine

ISW. Ukrainian military officials continue to indicate that Ukrainian forces are pushing back Russian efforts to seize Kupyansk — in contrast to repeated Russian claims of seizing the town. Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov stated on November 21 that Russian forces continue to try to infiltrate into Kupyansk, but that the number of Russian soldiers in the northern part of the town has decreased to about 40 personnel.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

The situation in the Pokrovsk direction remains serious and dynamic as Russian forces continue attempts to seize Pokrovsk itself and encircle Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk). Russian milbloggers claimed on November 21 and 22 that Russian forces seized Pokrovsk and advanced north of the town. Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced along the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad highway in southern Rivne (between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad).

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1992427895533310064?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Analysis and Future Operations —

The fight on the ground still is centering on Kupyansk and Pokrovsk. Unless Ukraine is able to do something significant to turn the tide, both will be lost in the near future. But as in the case of Pokrovsk, it would be a very pyrrhic victory, with Russia having worked at it for something like 21 months and suffering massive casualties in personnel and equipment. When Pokrovsk falls, it doesn’t appear that Russia has the reserves or force structure to exploit the breakthrough and will have to face a new line of Ukraine defenses designed to eat the Russian forces up.

The whole ‘peace’ plan has apparently blown up in Trump’s face (See International General above). Potentially a disaster diplomatically and has caused chaos in Ukrainian / US / Europe actions.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas complying of Israeli violations because Hamas elements have attacked Israeli forces.

- More terrorists are attempting to escape the underground bunkers, either being killed or captured by IDF.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas is delaying the return of the three remaining hostages remains.

Hamas warned U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff that it could end the Gaza ceasefire after Israeli forces killed multiple terrorists attempting to breach security lines, according to a Saturday report from Saudi state-owned Al Arabiya.

“The agreement is over and [Hamas] is ready to fight,” sources told the Saudi outlet, according to The Jerusalem Post. The terror group added that the ceasefire must be mutual and that “Gaza will not become another Lebanon.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israeli waiting out the Hamas forces trapped within the Yellow Zone is working, as they are increasing their attempts to escape.

More and more focus is turning back to Israel having to resume fallout conflict with Hezbollah as well as Hamas as both defy the cease fire agreement and are attempting to rebuild their fighting forces. In the case of Hezbollah, the clock may be running out, looking to next month as a starting window for Israeli action.

In Gaza, Israel is free to operate in the Yellow Zone, but limited elsewhere in Gaza, due to the ongoing efforts by the guarantors of the agreement to disarm and remove Hamas from power. That effort seems to be running out of steam, and could eventually permit Israel to resume full operations against Hamas across the whole of Gaza.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Some are noting that Iran could have taken an edge off their water crisis if they would have invested in desalinization plants instead of missiles and nuclear weapons.

In addition to dry reservoirs (the recent cloudburst did nothing to relieve the situation), consequences of unsustainable groundwater extraction are being felt. This is seen by massive soil subsidence over the aquifer of in places several feet. This subsidence breaks underground utilities as well as damages foundations for buildings. Similar was seen in the late 20th century in Arizona.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

One person was killed in an Israeli drone strike on a car in the town of Aita al-Shaab, Bint Jbeil district.
Sources close to the Al Hadath : The target of the Israeli raid in Aita al-Shaab was “Mohammed Saleh,” a member of Hezbollah.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Rumint. The United States is weighing options on Venezuela, including a potential attempt to overthrow the Venezuelan government, two sources tell Reuters. Four U.S. officials tell Reuters Washington is preparing to launch a new phase of Venezuela-related operations.

OBSERVATION - This rumor works double as psyops by itself.

Misc of Note –

A sudden stratospheric warming event has begun, deforming the Polar Vortex and setting the stage for a colder start to winter across the United States, Canada, and Europe.

Timeline of events:
- November 21: SSW event detected and begins
- November 25–28 (Thanksgiving): Peak disruption of the Polar Vortex in the stratosphere
- December 1–7: First major surface impacts (cold air) expected in the US/Canada
- Late December: Potential pattern shift bringing cold/snow to Europe.

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event has begun and is weakening the Polar Vortex. This is expected to bring colder winter conditions across the United States, Canada, and Europe.

A strong Polar Vortex locks cold air into the polar regions, creating milder winters. But when the Polar Vortex is disrupted or collapses, the cold air can escape, unleashing much colder winter conditions across the mid-latitudes (the U.S., Canada, and Europe).

Peak disruption of the vortex is forecast to occur around Thanksgiving in the stratosphere. However, the effects typically take around 2–3 weeks to propagate downward, meaning weather impacts should become visible across the mid-latitudes by early December.

This is one of the earliest collapse events on record. Only three similar early-season events have occurred in the last 70 years (1958, 1968, and 2000).

https://watchers.news/2025/11/22/polar-vortex-collapse-begins-colder-winter-expected-in-u-s-canada-and-europe/

OBSERVATION - The forecast gets complicated because of the influence of La Nina over the same period. About the only really general forecast for Dec - Feb/Mar is that cold is expected east of the Rockies and above normal precip in the northwest and northern Rockies. This could play out to be a wild winter all across the country. Check your preparations for potentially very adverse winter weather conditions.

Running a little late - OBE

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***

A Minnesota Sheriff gave a speech (not in English) making it very clear who he believes he is obligated to protect.
He says he’s a police officer for Somalians first in the U.S. and abroad

https://twitchy.com/justmindy/2025/11/23/minnesota-sheriff-serves-somalia-and-his-homeland-n2422038

***
A U.S. Department of Justice employee has been hit with state terrorism charges after allegedly doxxing a federal agent during a border raid.

This week, investigators with the Cameron County District Attorney’s Office arrested Karen Olvera De Leon on charges stemming from a criminal indictment. Olvera De Leon is an employee with the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Texas in Brownsville and is charged with one count of terrorism and one count of tampering with physical evidence.

According to information provided to Breitbart Texas by Cameron County District Attorney Luis Saenz, the case began on June 9, when federal agents conducted a raid in Brownsville. During the operation, bystanders began recording and livestreaming.

Various social media users began commenting on one of the livestreams when one of the commenters made what authorities considered a death threat against the agent being shown in the video. Moments after, another commenter revealed the identity of the agent in the video.

The doxxing triggered a federal investigation, where authorities were able to track down and identify the commenter as Olvera De Leon. According to Saenz, Cameron County investigators arrested Olvera De Leon after determining that she was the one who had doxed the federal agent.

The doxxing case in South Texas comes at a time when federal agents, particularly those with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Border Patrol, have been the target of numerous attacks and threats over immigration enforcement actions.

https://www.breitbart.com/border/2025/11/23/doj-employee-charged-with-terrorism-over-doxxing-of-federal-agent-during-raid-in-texas/

OBSERVATION - I’m sure she’s not the only one embedded in the administration’s that is doing this.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025

The FBI concluded that Thomas Matthew Crooks carried out his assassination attempt against President Donald Trump last year alone and without a motive, bringing the investigation to a close.

In an interview with Fox News, FBI Director Kash Patel and FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino explained the findings in the case shortly after conservative commentator Tucker Carlson released a documentary on his own investigation, which suggested foreign influence.

“We have reviewed this case over and over — looked into every nugget,” Bongino stated. “We have spoken to the families, the president — there is no cover-up here. There is no motive for it, there is no reason for it.”

https://www.oann.com/newsroom/fbi-concludes-crooks-acted-alone-in-assassination-attempt-on-trump/

OBSERVATION - Recent revelations raised red flags and those flags continue to fly in this case. I respect that Kash and Bongino are relaying what their underlings have briefed them on, I just cant help feeling that somewhere in that investigative chain some underling is intercepting and diverting evidence away.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

President Donald Trump is expected to announce a new plan aimed at curbing rising healthcare costs, urging Congress to send legislation to his desk that would prevent premium spikes under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), according to two White House officials cited by MS Now on Sunday.

The announcement of a general framework is expected to take place at the White House as early as Monday and will include comments from Trump and Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, according to both officials.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/donald-trump-framework-healthcare/2025/11/23/id/1235757/

OBSERVATION - Every and I mean EVERY time the need for healthcare insurance reforms get tossed into the republican court, the republicans are caught flat footed for a response. Why in the H E double toothpick haven’t they spent the time since 0bamacare was shoved down out throats putting together the alternative. Every dog gone time they just seem to act like a goat rope and usually end up throwing billions more on a failed system - with unfulfilled promises of reform.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

OFFICIAL STATEMENT:

The Department of War has received serious allegations of misconduct against Captain Mark Kelly, USN (Ret.). In accordance with the Uniform Code of Military Justice, 10 U.S.C. § 688, and other applicable regulations, a thorough review of these allegations has been initiated to determine further actions, which may include recall to active duty for court-martial proceedings or administrative measures. This matter will be handled in compliance with military law, ensuring due process and impartiality. Further official comments will be limited, to preserve the integrity of the proceedings.

The Department of War reminds all individuals that military retirees remain subject to the UCMJ for applicable offenses, and federal laws such as 18 U.S.C. § 2387 prohibit actions intended to interfere with the loyalty, morale, or good order and discipline of the armed forces. Any violations will be addressed through appropriate legal channels.

https://x.com/deptofwar/status/1992999267967905905?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
Japan-based USS George Washington (CVN-73) entered the South China Sea via the Luzon Strait on Nov. 17 following the departure of the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group on the same day.

As of Friday, the strike group was operating near the salvage site of two U.S. Navy aircraft assigned to USS Nimitz (CVN-68) that crashed last month in the South China Sea.

Navy salvage ship USNS Salvor (T-ARS-52) is searching for an F/A-18F Super Hornet and an MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter that crashed within half an hour of each other, a Navy official confirmed to USNI News.
Nimitz departed the South China Sea after a trilateral exercise near Scarborough Shoal with the warships from Japan and the Philippines.

https://news.usni.org/2025/11/21/uss-george-washington-enters-south-china-sea6

***
General Dan Caine will visit US Southern Command troops in Puerto Rico on Monday as the US increases its military presence while considering action against Venezuela.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Comey and James have had their cases dismissed because the judge ruled the prosecutor was improperly appointed. This will go on appeal and is not surprising that a leftist judge would go down on this to protect them, even though the evidence is overwhelming.

***
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was quietly disbanded despite having eight months remaining on its mandate.

According to a Reuters report, Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Kupor stated that the agency “doesn’t exist” any longer when asked about its status.

“The truth is: DOGE may not have centralized leadership under [U.S. DOGE Service]. But, the principles of DOGE remain alive and well: de-regulation; eliminating fraud, waste and abuse; re-shaping the federal workforce; making efficiency a first-class citizen; etc. DOGE catalyzed these changes; the agencies along with [U.S. Office Personnel Management] and [White House Office of Management and Budget] will institutionalize them!” Kupor added.

https://www.oann.com/newsroom/doge-quietly-disbanded-despite-having-eight-months-remaining-on-charter-that-doesnt-exist/

OBSERVATION - DOGE drifted out of the center stage as other issues took priority. I’m disappointed that it wasn’t continued because it pushed an independent reviewing board that identified billions in corruption and waste - now that grift has a chance to be reburied under bureaucratic redefinitions, etc.

Illegal Immigration –

Trump administration has terminated five more immigration judges in San Francisco, signaling a hardline stance on reshaping the nation’s immigration courts, NBC Bay Area reported.

This latest action, which took place on Friday, is part of a larger push that has seen over half of the city’s immigration judges ousted since the administration began its term in January, bringing the total number of dismissals to a dozen.

https://conservativeinstitute.org/conservative-news/trump-administration-dismisses-5-san-francisco-immigration-judges.htm#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Progressives are crying foul over these termination, trying to claim an effort to dismantle ‘justice’. However, these individuals have been doorways for leniency for illegals to beat around the bush and stay in country with indefinite status.

North/South Korea –

North and South Korea are in a “very dangerous situation” where an accidental clash is possible any time and it was crucial for Seoul to engage Pyongyang in dialog, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Monday, according to Yonhap News.

North Korea is refusing to answer calls by Seoul to establish contact and putting up barbed wire fences along the military border, something that had not been done since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, Lee was quoted as saying.

“Inter-Korean ties have become very hostile and confrontational, and in the absence of even the basic level of trust, the North is showing some very extreme behavior,” Lee said, according to Yonhap.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/north-korea-south-korea-very-dangerous-situatuion/2025/11/24/id/1235788/

OBSERVATION - It is important for communication to flow. At this stage, I don’t expect combat, just NK trying to jerk SK’s chain.

Japan –

Japan plans to deploy medium-range surface-to-air missiles on Yonaguni Island, just 110 km from Taiwan, as part of a broader military buildup to deter China.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

The Kremlin has not received official updates on the Geneva talks involving the U.S., Ukraine, and European representatives, according to Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. He confirmed that Moscow is aware of reported changes to the draft peace plan but has not been formally briefed. No U.S.-Russia negotiations are planned this week. “We’ll wait,” Peskov said.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russia has imposed a 24/7 flight ban over the Kapustin Yar test site until Nov 30, likely for missile trials. Monitoring suggests possible launch of the “Oreshnik” ballistic missile.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40 degree range, mostly cloudy. Inference to continued local fog conditions.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Kyiv residents are bracing for what could be the toughest winter of the war in Ukraine, with Moscow raining down record numbers of missiles and drones while targeting the war-torn nation’s energy infrastructure.
Districts in the capital city have been on a rolling blackout schedule, as an estimated 60% of natural gas production capacity has been lost due to Russian strikes, according to the International Energy Agency.

https://nypost.com/2025/11/22/world-news/kyiv-bracing-for-toughest-winter-of-war-as-60-of-natural-gas-production-has-been-lost-to-russian-strikes/

***

Marco Rubio hails “tremendous amount of progress” in the Geneva talks with Ukraine and says “there are a couple of issues we need to work on.” “None of them are insurmountable,” he says. “We just need more time than we had today. I honestly believe we’ll get there.”

Ukraine and the U.S. issued a joint statement following peace talks in Geneva, affirming that any future agreement must fully respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and ensure a just and lasting peace. An updated framework document has been prepared.

***
Overnight, Russia launched 162 drones, over 80 of them Shaheds, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or jammed 125 of them. Strikes hit 15 locations, with heavy damage to civilian infrastructure and homes in Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Dnipro regions.

Russian losses per 24/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1190 men
+3 tanks
+5 ACVs
+41 artillery

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Zatyshshia village of Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine

Analysis and Future Operations —

This whole cluster mess on a peace structure is nothing more than lucy holding the football - again. It is only throwing the west into chaos to produce an ‘agreement’ that Russia will eventually reject.

Fighting remains intense on the ground.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Generals involved in the Oct 7 intel failure dismissed.

- More Hamas terrorists attempting to escape tunnels taken out.

- Israeli airstrike takes out Hezbollah #2 Haytham Ali Tabtabai in Beirut

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel’s military announced the dismissal of three generals and disciplinary actions against several other senior officers over their failure to prevent the October 2023 assault by Hamas, the deadliest attack in the country’s history.

The move comes two weeks after Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir called for a “systemic investigation” into the failures that led to the onslaught, even as the government dragged its feet on establishing a state commission of inquiry despite public pressure.

The list of generals fired included three divisional commanders, one of whom was then serving as the military intelligence chief.

A military statement released on Sunday said all three bear personal responsibility for the armed forces’ failure to prevent the attack launched by Hamas from the Gaza Strip.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3333980/israeli-generals-dismissed-after-review-hamas-attack-failures?utm_source=rss_feed

OBSERVATION - Almost from day one, there were reports of gross intelligence and readiness failures that permitted Hamas to launch its lighting strike attack on Oct 7. It may be a stretch to say it was deliberate, but definitely displayed a sense of normalcy bias towards Hama and the border situation at the time.

***

Netanyahu opened the cabinet meeting today with a very strong message.

Israel will continue decisive strikes against Hamxs and Hezbollah and will not allow either group to reestablish any threat. He said Israel is responding forcefully to ongoing violations of the ceasefire in Gaza and does not need approval from any foreign power to defend itself.

He stressed that Israel’s security is the sole responsibility of the Israeli government and it will protect its citizens with full resolve.

***
IDF bases in northern Israel are preparing for the possibility of a Hezbollah response following the alleged elimination of its #2 leader.

Authorities along the northern border say there are no special instructions for residents at this time. IDF Northern Command is currently assessing the results of the strike.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Terrorists are continuing to come out of their bunkers and approaching the yellow line to attack IDF forces, and being put out of their misery

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Ongoing clashes between Palestinian fighters and Israeli forces in the town of Silat al-Harithiya, west of Jenin in the northern West Bank.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel waiting for a response to taking out Haytham Ali Tabtabai, Hezbollah’s number two leader. Other subordinates were also taken out. Tabtabai was responsible for the planning and eventual execution of an Oct 7 style attack into N Israel, an attack that Hamas preempted. If Hezbollah attempts to strike back, they will get hammered. If they don’t, the arab humiliation of weakness will stigmatize them.
A lose - lose scenario.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran slams Israel for the killing of Hezbollah military chief Haytham Ali Tabtabai in an airstrike a day earlier

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

IDF eliminated Ali Tabatabai, one of Hezbollah’s most dangerous and experienced military commanders, long sought by Israel; his death delivers the group’s biggest operational blow since the ceasefire.

At the start of the war, Tabatabai was considered one of the top three or four most dangerous Hezbollah military commanders in terms of proven experience in the field.

Israel attempted to eliminate him numerous times throughout the war, attempts he evaded.

His elimination is not only the biggest blow Hezbollah has suffered since last year’s ceasefire took effect, but some might argue that after Nasrallah, Aqil, and Shukr, Tabatabai was the most senior and dangerous military commander Hezbollah had

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/artc-analysis-the-elimination-of-tabatabai-the-biggest-blow-to-hezbollah-in-over-a-year

***
The Lebanese MP Fouad Makhzoumi said on Sunday that “the time for action has come” in a social media post criticizing the Hezbollah terror organization for the recent Israeli strike in Beirut.
“Beirut was struck today. Our capital, weary from crises and the wounds of years, finds itself once again at the heart of danger, while the Lebanese feel that the blow has struck all of Lebanon, not just Beirut alone,” Makhzoumi wrote.

“And at the very moment when the country needs protection and stability, Hezbollah continues to drag Lebanon to the brink of confrontation, after deploying its war media just two days ago with videos threatening rockets, drones, and field operations,” he added.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-874963

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

The United States has issued a new NOTAM covering the entirety of the Venezuelan Flight Information Region (FIR). The advisory cites a potentially hazardous security environment due to a deteriorating situation and increased military activity in and around Venezuela.

According to Marisela de Loaiza, the President of the Airlines Association in Venezuela (ALAV), six airlines have indefinitely canceled flights to and from Venezuela following the recent Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) issued by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), with these airlines including Spain’s Iberia, Portugal’s TAP, Colombia’s Avianca, Trinidad and Tobago’s Caribbean Airlines, Brazil’s GOL and Chile’s Latam, while Turkish Airlines has suspended flights from November 24 to 28.

https://x.com/Osint613/status/1992571848828064001?s=20

***
Unconfirmed ‘Reports of diplomats leaving Caracas’ - FOXNews

***
More B52 fly by operations off the coast.

Globalism / Great Reset –

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***

Mellowing out mid week timeframe. Still daily disturbances in Chicago and Portland, but not significantly impacting ICE operations as before.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday setting in motion the process to designate certain chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as foreign terrorist organizations.

The order directs the Secretary of State and the Secretary of the Treasury to submit, within 30 days of signing, a joint report to Trump “concerning the designation of any Muslim Brotherhood chapters or other subdivisions, including those in Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt,” as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terrorists.

Within 45 days of the report’s submission, the Secretary of State or Secretary of the Treasury “shall take all appropriate action” consistent with law, “with regard to the designation of any Muslim Brotherhood chapters or other subdivisions described in section 1 of this order as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terrorists.”

https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-president-trump-signs-executive-order-to-designate-muslim-brotherhood-chapters-as-foreign-terrorist-orgs#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Designation has been long awaited.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

A depleted cattle inventory in the United States herd has dropped to its lowest level in more than 70 years — creating an impact ever more visible each month in grocery stores.

Years of drought across ranch country pushed operations into liquidation mode, with many ranchers selling breeding cattle to survive short-term stress. According to Fox News, current herd totals resemble those of the early postwar periods in the 1950s.

Ranch operations that usually hold back female calves for future growth often sell those animals instead. Fewer replacement cattle create a multiyear rebuild cycle. Ranch families must grow heifers, breed them, wait for calves, and eventually raise those calves to market weight.

https://pjmedia.com/david-manney/2025/11/24/smallest-herd-in-seven-decades-means-big-bills-at-the-butcher-n4946368

OBSERVATION - I’ve noted in the past that the ranching industry was hit particularly hard with the price explosions during wuhan (fuel, food, etc) combined with a severe drought. It will take years to rebuild, however, it is going to be difficult due to concerns over future droughts within that rebuild cycle and continued high prices for fuel, fertilizer, etc. Grown herds also needs capitol, something the fed is keeping at a high rate.
No real good way forward except to let the cycle move forward and hopefully get ranchers some breaks to help grow the herds.

Hint - For those who have freezer space, purchasing half a cow is very economical. Did so myself nearly a year ago now, overall cost about $4.40 /lb - for all the cuts and burger. Delicious grass fed beef, not stockyard stuff. Does cost a bit up front, but long term savings.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Pentagon announced that it is investigating Senator Mark Kelly’s involvement in that incitement to insurrection. Kelly is the only one of the Six that retired from the military and therefore can be recalled back to service for behavior like this. Key to it is this principle -

Military code that states military members must presume orders are legal (and thus obey them) is embedded in U.S. military law, court-martial precedent, and the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ).

Important to cut thru the weasel wording to the crux of the matter. The proclamations were designed to get the military members to question ALL orders as well as to tip off the leftists / progressives we know are in higher ranks. Kelly may think is caveat “illegal orders” is going to grant him cover, with without justification and the fact that this statement was clearly organized for the purpose of creating doubt in the military may hurt his case. This is not a piece of cake move by the DoW and entails a lot of risk, so expect slow careful movement.

***
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) denies a Reuters report that they no longer exist.

OBSERVATIONS - HMMMMM

***
Comey is not out of the woods, was charges were not dismissed with prejudice and can be refiled.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump setting up meetings with China’s Xi next year.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
The Kremlin on Monday said that a European counter-proposal to a U.S. 28-point peace plan for Ukraine was not constructive and that it simply did not work for Moscow.

The publication of the 28-point draft U.S. peace plan last week deepened concerns in Ukraine and among European powers that Russia’s core demands on NATO, territory and the chronology of any peace deal had been accepted by Washington.

The European plan significantly changes the meaning and significance of key points on NATO and territory, according to a copy seen by Reuters.

The European plan, at first glance ... is completely unconstructive and does not work for us,” Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters in Moscow.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/kremlin-ukraine-europe/2025/11/24/id/1235895/

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40 degree range, mostly cloudy. Inference to continued local fog conditions.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched a massive overnight strike on Ukraine, targeting Kyiv and multiple regions with drones, Kalibrs, Kinzhal, Iskander-K missiles, and ballistic weapons.

Ukraine’s Air Force reported on the overnight drone and missile attack.

Shot down:
438/464 Shahed and other type drones
1/4 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
5/7 Iskander-K cruise missiles
5/8 Kalibr cruise missiles
3/3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles

The attack targeted Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Cherkasy regions, focusing on energy and civilian infrastructure. Four drones even crossed into Moldova and Romania (unconfirmed)

Ukraine carried out a cruise missile attack earlier tonight against Taganrog-Central Air Base in the Rostov Oblast of Western Russia, with video of the attack’s aftermath showing a large military aircraft ablaze on the tarmac of the base, possibly an A-50U Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) Aircraft or an A-60 Airborne Laser Laboratory, of which only two were ever constructed for the Russian Air Force.

Russian losses per 25/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1120 men
+2 tanks
+4 ACVs
+18 artillery
+2 AD systems

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Ivanopillia village near Kostiantynivka

Analysis and Future Operations —

As the peace talks turn continues. What a goat rope.

Intense fighting on the ground and in the air.

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level ADVISORY - OCT 26, 2025 -

Pakistani Air Force killed 10 Afghan civilians, including 9 children, in the latest airstrike on a residential home in Afghanistan’s Khost province.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IAF hit Hamas targets on both sides of the yellow line. More trapped Hamas forces within the Israeli controlled yellow zone identified and terminated.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad claims to have a body of an Israeli hostage. Questionable if they will hand it over anytime soon.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

IDF / Security forces continue anti-terror operations in the area.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Deceivingly quiet, as Israel continues to plan on having to resume large scale operations against Hezbollah and eventually Hamas.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

So far, no indicators of an impending Hezbollah attack on Israel after the IAF took out the number 2 in charge.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***

COMMENTS - More and more, it is evident that an orchestrated effort to mount a Color revolution is in process. One key thing to note across the whole spectrum now is the effort by the left to conduct actions that are designed to generate an overreaction by the Trump administration so that they can play the victim and potentially win converts to their side. In the recent Seditious six episode, this is very clear. The canned, coordinated announcements tried to carefully weasel word the term ‘illegal’, with out defining it further. But the intent was there - question all orders and any orders that go against the leftist narrative are ‘illegal’.

As noted, 4 of the 6 were veterans, one was CIA and the 6th is Kelly, a retired Navy pilot and shuttle astronaut. It looks like Kelly is being set up as the sacrificial lamb because he can be called back to active service (retiree). The left thinks he is untouchable and with the help of their MSM minions try to sway the narrative into persecution of political opponents. Reality is the order and discipline of our military must be maintained, but Kelly and others don’t care - aa long as they can be used to take down Trump.

Many are noting that the seditious six’s announcements are setting the stage for further actions should things go sideways in 2026. “Indivisible “ has already announced that they are moving from rallies to direct action - sit ins, transportation disruptions, etc - again to try to get the administration to overreact and to use any reaction to gain more support.

I am considering breaking out a new section that covers each of the six Color revolution pillars and associate actions with those, for clarity.

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Mass Blackout boycott is to begin today with the goal of impacting sales of Black Friday and associated sales. Economic forecasts suggest that this weekend will be one of the largest days for business in the post wuhan era, likely wiping out what little impact this boycott may have.

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Reports of activists blocking access to LAX. Expect more blockages as Thanksgiving approaches.

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Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., warned military members Monday that “there will be consequences” if they allowed Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., to be court-martialed.

Gallego reacted to the Department of War’s announcement earlier that day on X that it launched a formal review into allegations of misconduct against Kelly, a retired Navy captain, over his role in a controversial video urging service members to “refuse illegal orders” from President Donald Trump.

Gallego told CNN’s Kasie Hunt he has faith in the U.S. military and the justice system to handle the case properly, adding that officers know there would be fallout if they tried to “railroad” Kelly.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/ruben-gallego-warns-military-there-consequences-going-after-congressmembers-once-trump-gone

OBSERVATION - Gallego has a lot of dirty baggage of his own, but to threaten our military with paybacks if they follow established military law and procedures - instead of politically rejecting them - is another dangerous foot across the line.

***
On November 24, the News Hour guest was Alejandra Caraballo, a trans woman who works at Harvard’s Cyberlaw Clinic. Caraballo exemplifies the acidulous leftist vitriol on Bluesky, the leftist alternative to Twitter. Caraballo posted this on June 18, after the Supreme Court upheld Tennessee’s ban on gender-denying mutilations for children:

“I honestly don’t care anymore if this country destroys itself and burns down to the ground. The current form of the United States is incompatible with democracy or human rights. It no longer has any legitimacy to govern and I’ll dance on its grave. Let something better rise from the ashes.”

https://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/tim-graham/2025/11/26/column-pbs-seems-neutral-burning-america-ground

OBSERVATION - The far left is telling us exactly what they want to do. Too many on the right are just writing it off as political hyperbole. We must pay attention.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said envelopes filled with suspicious white powder were mailed to ICE offices in Dallas and Irving Texas last week. DHS said a hazmat team cleared the facilities.

https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/11/21/dhs-issues-statement-two-envelopes-mailed-two-texas-ice-offices-suspicious-white

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Gas prices are creeping near their lowest level in four years ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with the national average hovering just above $3 per gallon.

According to AAA, the national gas price average stood at $3.055 on Tuesday. One week ago, the national average stood around $3.077.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/11/25/gas-prices-creeping-near-lowest-level-in-four-years-ahead-of-thanksgiving-holiday/

OBSERVATION - As I’ve noted previously a few months ago, OPEC has dropped prices in the face of lowered than expected demand caused by continued disruption of economic growth, especially in China. Combined with increased US production, lower costs are finally trickling down to consumers. Lower prices will help keep inflationary pressures down, but does reflect a weakness in the economy in that a more robust economy burns more fuel, and can hold prices higher.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The FBI and Department of Justice have contacted Capitol Police to schedule interviews with the six members of Congress who appeared in a controversial video urging service members to ignore orders they may deem illegal, Fox News has learned.

The Pentagon said it may even call Kelly, a retired Navy captain, back to active duty to face court-martial proceedings or other administrative actions under the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ). Four of the other Democrats are former military, but not retired and therefore are not subject to the UCMJ, according to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. Slotkin is a former CIA officer.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fbi-scheduling-interviews-6-lawmakers-who-encouraged-military-members-refuse-illegal-orders

OBSERVATION - Military code that states military members must presume orders are legal (and thus obey them) is embedded in U.S. military law, court-martial precedent, and the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ). Potential prosecution of Kelly has USSC precedence during the Viet Nam war era when an Army Captain publicly encouraged soldiers to disobey orders and was court-martialed for it. The USSC upheld the conviction. Also, under military law, there is a broader allowance for prosecution of seditious actions - which is why Kelly is in double dog doo doo if called back to active service. His weasel wording may work in civilian courts, but not military law.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff secretly advised senior Kremlin official Yuri Ushakov on how Putin should pitch a Ukraine peace plan directly to Trump - Bloomberg

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff - in a previously unreported phone call on October 14 with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov - suggested that they work together to create a similar peace agreement to the one that had just been signed in Gaza, for Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Witkoff also advised the Kremlin on how Putin could counter the upcoming visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, suggesting a call between Trump and Putin before Zelensky’s visit to the White House later that week and using praise for the ceasefire in Gaza as a way into the good graces of President Trump.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1993414124404195832?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Reporter: Have you heard this audio that Bloomberg has of Witkoff coaching the Russians on how to appeal to you? Trump: Well, I haven’t heard it, no. But that’s a standard thing, you know, because he’s got to sell this to Ukraine. He’s got to sell Ukraine to Russia. That’s what a dealmaker does. You’ve got to say, “Look, they want this, you’ve got to convince them of this.” You know, that’s a very standard form of negotiation. I haven’t heard it, but I heard it was standard negotiation. And I would imagine he’s saying the same thing to Ukraine, because each party has to give and take.

OBSERVATION - OMG, Trump; better pay closer attention as Witkoff is playing / being played and Trump cannot afford to be lead around by actions like this. The discussion was clearly NOT a give or take, but on how to sway Trump.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russia is set to reject the new 19-point cease-fire deal drafted by the US and Ukraine but may use disinformation tactics to keep President Trump engaged in continued talks — suggesting the war will last at least through Christmas, sources told The Post on Tuesday.

The White House has said it is working to secure a deal after Special Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff developed a previous controversial 28-point version of the plan that heavily favored Moscow. That plan included input from Kyiv, the Trump administration has insisted.

The proposal, roundly criticized by both sides of the US political aisle and international community because it was so one-sided, was then narrowed down to a 19-point plan acceptable to Ukraine after talks between top Washington and Kyiv officials happened Sunday.

https://nypost.com/2025/11/25/world-news/ukraine-peace-plan-expected-to-be-rejected-by-russia-likely-extending-war-until-after-christmas-at-minimum-sources/

OBSERVATION - Putin has no reason to accept the latest proposal, and is repeatedly holding to his maximalist demands for the complete surrender of Ukraine.

As I’ve said - Lucy holding the football.

Economic Impact –

The Russian government may be forced to rescue its state railway company, currently $51 billion in debt -Reuters
Russia is reportedly examining options, including raising prices for rail cargo, which would affect numerous Russian industries.

OBSERVATION - Moscow’s budget is blowing up sky high. First the growing costs of the Ukraine war, Second the substantial losses of oil money (from both sales losses as well as funding substantial repairs of refineries and other facilities). Now this. It is all piling up. Will 2026 be the peak point for Russia and be forced into concessions in its war against Ukraine?

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40 degree range, mostly cloudy. Inference to continued local fog conditions.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s air defense shot down or suppressed 72 drones overnight (out of 90 launched), including Shaheds and other UAV types, along with intercepting 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles fired from Russia. Strikes hit 10 locations.

Ukrainian attack drones penetrated 1000 km into Russian airspace and hit the VNIIR-Progress factory in Cheboksary tonight. The facility is a key producer of electronics for the Russian military.

Russian losses per 26/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+980 men
+4 tanks
+1 ACV
+44 artillery
+2 AD systems

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Pressure around the town appears to have dropped for the moment.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Lucy and the football diplomacy at full roar. A lot of action, but nothing is going to come out of it except more chaos among the west - exactly what putin wants.

Heavy fighting continues on the ground, but Russia is still struggling to seal the deal on Pokrovsk. Current fog of war is making it difficult to full discern just what is happening, but reported Russian attacks are down.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Body of another hostage released overnight.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas / PIJ released the body of another Israeli kidnapped on Oct 7. Currently the bodies of Ran Gvili, an Israeli policeman, and Suthisak Rinthalak, a Thai national, are still held in Gaza.

***
More Hamas attempting to escape from Rafah with six militants being spotted and struck by the IDF while trying to escape from underground tunnels. Two surrenderd, other four killed. Forces remain on site, sweeping the area for further threats.

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Israel’s cabinet was warned that Hamas is rebuilding fast and regaining near full control of Gaza. Officials said 13 of 25 municipalities are back up and running, police and checkpoints have reappeared, and key infrastructure is being repaired as Hamas restores its grip on the population.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

IDF statement:
“IDF forces, Shin Bet, and Border Guard have begun operating tonight as part of a large-scale operation to thwart terrorism in the northern Samaria region.
The IDF and Shin Bet will not allow terrorism to establish itself in the area and are acting proactively to thwart it.
Additional details to follow.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

With time, the reconstitution of Hama is negating the Trump peace plan for Gaza. It will be harder and harder to put them out of power diplomatically.

Israel’s siege of the tunnel trapped Hamas elements is continuing to pay off as daily now small groups attempt to escape, most refusing to surrender. By doing so, Israel doesn’t need to expend forces to directly attack these tunnels, just sit back and watch them ready to nail anyone who attempts to escape.

Clock continues to count down on Hezbollah.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

Reports that Trump has blessed Israeli operations against Hezbollah should Lebanon fail to disarm and disband the organization. Other reports that Hezbollah has regained enough clout to physically stop Lebanese military operations.

The Trump permission reportedly includes strikes in Beirut if necessary like the recent one.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Venezuela training civilian militias for combat.

Misc of Note –

Ethiopia’s Hayli Gubbi volcano, erupted for the first time in at least 12 000 years, spewing ash over a wide area from a plume that reached 9 miles high.

Hayli Gubbi volcano lies in Ethiopia’s Afar Rift Volcanic Province, forming the southernmost edifice of the Erta Ale Range. It is a shield-type structure built primarily of basaltic lava flows, overlain by younger fissure-fed flows extending northward.

That makes this eruption interesting (particularly to me a retired geologist). Shield volcanos are like those on Hawaii and eruptions composed of very fluid basaltic lava. Large, stratospheric eruptions are not common.

This eruption, however, has triggered its share of doomers who from their keyboards are claiming that all of a sudden ‘dormant’ volcanos are erupting all over the world.

Reality check time - dormant volcanos are not erupting all over the world

Apart from Hayli Gubbi, these volcanic doomer rabble rousers cite a pretty active volcano in Afghanistan as well as the active Santorini (erupted in 1950) and Campi Flegrei supervolcano in southern Italy

I’m surprised they left out the perennial favorite - Yellowstone.
From a geologic perspective, there is nothing “unusual” going on. Dormant volcanos only indicate those who’ve been active in the past but currently inactive. Processes and pressures that established them in the past are still present and geologists realize that with time they can erupt again.

In the case of Hayli Gubbi, it is in the Ethiopia’s Afar Rift Volcanic Province, a very tectonically and volcanically active zone. Why would it be a surprise that it would erupt again.

Groan, take a deep breath and step away from these ill informed doomers. Be aware of your own local natural threats. In some cases, it is from Cascade volcanics, others earthquakes, other hurricanes and tornados, etc. But no folks don’t worry about dormant volcanos all around the world waking up all at once.
Don’t believe everything you see on the internet.

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