Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Globalism / Great Reset –

There is one magazine that represents the interests of the global elite more than any other. It is known as “The Economist”, and each year it puts out an issue that is dedicated to what is coming in the year ahead. As we have seen so many times before, these issues tend to be alarmingly accurate.

The reason why they are so accurate is because the ultra-wealthy elite have an enormous amount of influence over the course of human events. If they are absolutely determined to make something happen, there is a good chance that it is going to happen.

Ominously, it appears that they are anticipating a great deal of global chaos in 2026.

The Economist has been around since 1843, but it has never had a very large readership among the general population.

Ultimately, it is a publication by the elite and for the elite.

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=9165#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Snyder of the “End of the American Dream “ is a quintessential doomer and many of his predictions just haven’t paned out over the years.

However, his observations on the issue of “The Economist” are similar to those made over the years by many others, as us common people try to read the tea leaves at to what the elite are thinking. Even at that point, many claims on past covers haven’t really panned out either. This is 2025 and the world has entered a post-wuhan time of increasing chaos and the symbology reflects that. 2026 could prove to be a major year in the world and where it is headed.

Just a matter of keeping our eyes and ears open for advance inklings of the globalist plans and actions to bring those plans about.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of NOV 17, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
Charlotte NC - Local Threat - WARNING as of Nov 21, 2025
New Orleans LA - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Nov 17, 2025

NOTE - Changes to the above. Portland downgraded as violent actions have decreased, though the threat could change. Charlotte and New Orleans added as a surge on illegals has started and some leftists are working to counter operations. Los Angeles is dropped as activity has fallen to previous baseline levels.

DATES TO NOTE -
.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***
Weekend Forecast - Announced demonstrations in DC by “Removal Coalition”, do not appear to be mobilizing many at this stage.
Elsewhere, same old minor signs and shouting at sites across the country with very limited potential for violence.

Considerable chances of violence associated with ICE / BP arrests of illegals, particularly in the Charlotte NC area (note change in local threat status above).
As always, conditions can change rapidly depending on local and national events. Be alert to local news.

***
“Removal Coalition” rally today, not much on the web concerning this event.

***
(FO) A coalition of activist groups called for “coordinated economic shutdown” they are calling The Mass Blackout (Nov 26 - Dec 2.)

The coalition urged Americans to stop online and in-person shopping, stop work, and “remove the regime.” The coalition includes Blackout the System, The People’s Sick Day, The Progressive Network, American Opposition, and the Money Out of Politics Movement.

Indivisible, the country’s largest protest organizing group, also called for a boycott of Home Depot, Target, and Amazon from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.

NOTABLE FO ANALYSIS - Boycotts, strikes, and other tactics that are disruptive to an economy are often vital parts of resistance and revolutionary movements. What separates a boycott as a form of protest and one of resistance or revolution is intent. As a form of protest, a boycott is aimed at getting a company to choose a different policy. As a form of resistance or revolution, a boycott is intended to build economic pressure against the sitting government to resign or abdicate. So, when a protest movement like “Blackout the System” engages in boycotts to “remove the regime,” it’s not a simple protest, but a tactic of a revolutionary movement.

MY OBSERVATION - Growing development of a ‘color’ revolution focusing on a sector or pillar of society to place pressure on the governing administration.

How successful with this be? Probably only the hard core will turn out. The rank and file progressive democrats rely too much on these businesses to avoid and boycott them all together. Leftist boycotts haven’t been very successful in the past, in comparison to those by the right, “go woke, go broke” is one example.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025

A new report reveals how artificial intelligence programs, ChatGPT and others, have been documented to advise those with ill intentions “on how to attack a sports venue, buy nuclear material on the dark web, weaponize anthrax, build spyware, bombs” and more.

It is in an extensive documentation compiled by the Middle East Media Research Institute that the startling warnings are contained.

In the report, Gen. (Ret.) Paul E. Funk II, formerly the commander of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, explained, “Artificial Intelligence (AI), the rapidly developing technology, has captured the attention of terrorists, from al-Qaida through ISIS to Hamas, Hizbullah, and the Houthis.”

He cites the study, “Terrorists’ Use Of AI So Far - A Three-Year Assessment 2022-2025,” for its “unsettling contribution to the public debate on AI’s future global impact.”

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=9164

OBSERVATION - More at link. Very disturbing but not surprising. Evil will use all resources at hand to conduct evil. And AI today seems more than willing to produce the information

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Tyson Foods, America’s largest meat supplier, is planning to close one of its largest beef-processing plants in Nebraska at a time when a cattle shortage in the U.S. squeezes meatpacking companies

OBSERVATION - True that US cattle herds are down, Tyson has proceeded to decimate the meat processing sector ever since wuhan, and that portion of the industry is still suffering. Some going a far as to suggest that this is a covert effort to damage the food chain here in america - remember how the globalist are waging war against meat - wanting people to eat bugs instead.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Marjorie Taylor Greene has flamed out, as she has announced that she is resigning from the House of Representatives, effective January 5, 2026. Her seat will be filled by a special election

OBSERVATION - Well, bye meme

***
The U.S Supreme Court has overturned a lower court and rules that Texas redistricting map is perfectly legal

OBSERVATION - The opinion was rather scathing.

***
President Donald Trump called for Democrats who participated in a video calling for U.S. military personnel and federal employees to “refuse illegal orders” to be put on trial for “seditious behavior” yesterday.

OBSERVATION - On cue, these democrat cry bullies are saying that they are the victims of a mean old Donald Trump. No, in reality they got slapped up side the head with the legal ramifications of what they were trying to accomplish.

What is scary, there are enough senior officers that boot licked their way into the command structure via 0bama and biden that will see this as justification to disobey ANY order they want to deem as ‘illegal’. This is a recipe for revolt people and dangerous as tossing a lighted match into a powder house.

TRUMP Watch –

President Donald Trump and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani had their first face-to-face meeting at the White House. During his visit to the Oval Office on Friday, Trump congratulated Mamdani (D-N.Y.) for his win in the Big Apple.

Mamdani expressed his appreciation for a “productive” meeting with Trump, recalling that the two spoke about affordability, which was the overarching focus of his campaign. He said they discussed rent, groceries, utilities, and “the different ways in which people have been pushed out,” saying that he looked forward to working with Trump to deliver affordability.

https://www.oann.com/newsroom/mamdani-and-trump-have-first-face-to-face-meeting-the-better-he-does-the-happier-i-am/

OBSERVATION - Many on both sides are scratching their heads over the honey sweet, buddy buddy press conference and appearance of congeniality . Some analysts thing Trump played Mamdani like a fiddle, cutting out his radical leftist base, while at the same time reassuring NYC businesses that the wont be allowed to go nutz.

Perhaps an old saying may be in effect - hold your friends close, and your enemies even closer.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025

(FO) The Trump administration’s National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross said the administration’s new National Cyber Strategy will shift the U.S.’s focus from defensive to offensive cyber operations. Cairncross said the new strategy will target adversary state-linked hackers in order to shape adversary behavior and deter future cyber attacks. The new National Cyber Strategy appears to be preemptive offensive actions against foreign adversary cyber operations designed to push foreign adversaries out of that gray area.

Illegal Immigration –

Trump has announced via a post on Truth Social that he will be “terminating, effective immediately” the Temporary Protected Status (TPS Program) for Somalis in Minnesota. There are only around 700 Somalis that are actually on TPS across the United States, with the rescinding of the status requiring a directive from the Department of Homeland Security before the expiration of the next period under the TPS Program for Somalia.

OBSERVATION - Just the tip of the iceberg on the Somalian problem in Minnesota as there are even more who’ve snuck into the country and congregated into the community where they can be camouflaged from the prying eyes of ICE / BP

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

***
ISW. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to indicate that his demands have not fundamentally changed since the August 2025 Alaska summit.

Other Key Takeaways:

Reported Russian government insiders also indicated that the Kremlin does not support the proposed 28-point peace plan.

Russian officials are setting informational conditions to reject the 28-point peace plan, which acquiesces to many — but not all — of Russia’s persistent war demands.

The Kremlin has thus far failed to set conditions for the Russian people to accept anything less than a full Russian victory in Ukraine.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1992095511168348583?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - I’ll try to tie up the Russian / Ukraine plan below in Misc

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-40 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.

RUMINT –

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Trump has threatened to cut intelligence sharing and arms supplies for Ukraine to force it into accepting the framework of a U.S.-brokered peace deal, Reuters reported Friday citing two unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
Washington has presented Ukraine with a 28-point plan seen as endorsing some of Russia’s key demands, including further territorial concessions, curbing the size of the Ukrainian military as well as foreclosing Ukraine’s path to join NATO.

Kyiv, it is understood, is under greater pressure from Washington than during any previous peace discussions, expected to sign a framework of the deal by next Thursday.

***
Overnight, Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile from occupied Crimea and 104 attack drones including Shahed, Geran, and others from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense managed to shoot down or jam 89 of them. Hits were recorded at 15 locations.

Explosion was reported in Odesa region, from a ballistic missile strike

Russian losses per 22/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1170 men
+4 tanks
+7 ACVs
+9 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Pokrovsk direction, where the situation remains serious and dynamic.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Ukraine still tenaciously holding on to areas of the Pokrovsk pocket. I still believe it has become a losing battle and they need to be careful not to let a sizable force get trapped.

Trump’s peace plan demands - See my comment below under Misc.

Poland –

Poland’s lower chamber of Parliament unanimously voted to move the Russian Embassy in Poland due to its proximity to the Polish Defense Ministry. Politicians previously raised this issue for decades but tabled it to maintain stable relations with Russia.

Europe / NATO General –

Ukraine’s allies will seek to “strengthen” a US plan to end the war with Russia when they meet at the G20 summit in South Africa, UK PM Sir Keir Starmer has said.

The summit begins a day after President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Ukraine faced “one of the most difficult moments in our history” over pressure to accept the plan - leaked details of which have been seen as favourable to Moscow.

Zelensky held phone talks with Sir Keir and the leaders of France and Germany on Friday. Afterwards, the PM said Ukraine’s “friends and partners” remained committed to securing a “lasting peace once and for all”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyx9xnpll8o

OBSERVATION - Uniformly, European allies have rejected the Trump plan, seeing it essentially as a surrender by Ukraine and a threat to longer term peace and stability in Europe. This ‘plan’ may have caught many of them by surprise since Trump had been hardening against putin of late.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas bunkers/tunnels continued to be destroyed

- Hamas fighters trying to escape trapped in tunnels in Yellow zone being taken out or captured.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

The Israeli army is using large quantities of explosives to destroy buildings in the northern Gaza Strip, and the sounds of explosions can be heard in the settlements surrounding Gaza. Most likely Hamas underground tunnels/bunkers.

***
Earlier today (Friday), approximately 15 terrorists emerged from underground terror infrastructure at two different locations east of the yellow line in eastern Rafah.

Following ISA intelligence, the IAF has so far eliminated six terrorists.
Simultaneously, IDF troops apprehended five terrorists who surrendered to them and were transferred for further questioning by the ISA inside Israel.

One captured terrorist: “We went out of the tunnel in search of food and water”.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli conduct anti-terror operations in Silwad town, northeast of Ramallah

———INTERNATIONAL ————————

Ankara has announced that it is recruiting 2,000 Turkish soldiers and training them as a brigade that will join the International Stabilization Force (ISF), slated to deploy in the Gaza Strip as part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan. This step dovetails with another Turkish move revealed a few days ago, the issuance of 37 arrest warrants against senior Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on allegations of war crimes and genocide.

These developments come as Ankara invests heavily in increasing visibility in Gaza via Turkish and Palestinian aid organizations. Turkish posters and flags are flying across the Strip, including on bulldozers clearing debris and searching for deceased hostages.

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=9162

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

International noise over the trapped Hamas fighters has effectively disappeared and recent capture of those attempting to escape tell the story that their supplies are running out and their position to remain in the tunnels is becoming precarious. Good.

Israel has flat out rejected any Turkish military presence in Gaza. Turkey is as hostile towards Israel as Hamas and will not be a good mix.

Movement towards an expanded operation against Hezbollah continues to grow and develop.

Iraq -

ISW. Iraqi Government Formation: Iranian-backed Iraqi Parties Are Poised to Control the Next Government

Iranian-backed political parties are preparing to form the next Iraqi federal government after winning over a third of the seats in the recent parliamentary elections. These parties may exclude or at least weaken Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani, despite his coalition winning the plurality of seats.

OBSERVATION - Iraq’s new government is starting to form. The shift towards Iranian shia elements was accelerated in part by Sadr’s pulling back from the elections and not having an Iraqi shia to counter balance Iran’s version of shia.

Looks like at the bottom line, Iraq is facing a period of instability, though at this stage no outright rebellion.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

Lebanese Health Ministry: Israeli airstrike on a car in Nabatieh district, southern Lebanon, kills Hezbollah target

***
The Israeli army followed-up about strike against a Hamas training compound inside the Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp in southern Lebanon earlier this week. The military said it killed 13 militants, including Jawad Sidawi, a trainer involved in plotting attacks from Lebanon against Israel. The military said the site demonstrates Hamas’ growing presence in Lebanon despite Beirut’s pledge to disarm armed groups in the camps

***
Sarit Zehavi, a leading Israeli security expert on Hezbollah from the Israel Alma Research and Education Center, told Fox News Digital that Hezbollah does not currently “have the capability to carry out an October invasion. They had it prior to Oct. 7, 2023. They can send in a few terrorists. I want to believe it will take a few years to get those capabilities back.”

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-105/

OBSERVATION - Like I noted previously, Hezbollah lost a lot of its capabilities to launch a large scale ground assault on Israel. Their primary elements will be their limited missile/rocket stockage and resistance to any Israeli ground operations. With out a doubt, Mossad intelligence has a long list of prioritized targets should the go order be given to intensify operations against Hezbollah.

Misc of Note –

What is with Trumps sudden switch back on the Ukraine war. In just the past few weeks, Trump unleashed a new round of sanctions on Russia and roped in many supporting countries, like India, to cease oil purchases - noting explicitly how Russia has been disingenuous in its willingness to talk peace and end its aggression.

Now all of a sudden, Ukraine has been given a deadline to accept a “peace” plan that will decimate the country and essentially give Russia nearly all of its demands - all on the backs of Ukraine.

On the Russian side, Putin continues to indicate that his demands have not fundamentally changed since the August 2025 Alaska summit. Total capitulation of Ukraine to Russian rule.

Additionally, the kremlin says it rejects the plan. This brings up a very BIG question - just who in the heck was this “Russian” Witcoff reportedly “negotiated’ this deal with?

Smells like Lucy holding the football again. putin wants to undermine western support for Ukraine and what better way than to sow dissension arising from a ‘peace’ plan that will not see the light of day and Trump some how being convinced to issue a Thursday (Thanksgiving) deadline for Ukraine to accept - except that Ukraine was not part of the plan discussions.

I do not think Trump or Witcoff are grasping putin’s game and that a wildly swinging foreign policy against Russia is not making the world safer. You must have consistency. Regan knew that and held the course that caused the Russian controlled Soviet Union to implode.

You cant one day extend sanctions of Russia and the next try to force Ukraine to essentially surrender. It plays right into putin’s hands

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

***
Weekend Forecast - Same old minor signs and shouting at sites across the country with very limited potential for violence.

Considerable chances of violence associated with ICE / BP arrests of illegals, particularly in the Charlotte NC area (not change in local threat status above).
As always, conditions can change rapidly depending on local and national events. Be alert to local news.

***
“Removal Coalition” only had a turnout of a few ‘thousand’, mostly old white people.

***
This video has been out for a while, if you haven’t seen it - do so for your information -

“The wording in the video is so carefully vague, it’s easy enough to agree with what they’ve said, but it is also totally useless. There was no mention at all of what orders given the President has given that have been illegal, because they knew such wording would land the lot of them in court before the echo died. They’re trying to make the case that what Trump is doing with the military is unlawful, but their spineless video utterly fails to do that. It simply implies. So why are they saying it, and just as importantly, why are they saying it NOW? “

“The timing of this thing is important. This vid, whatever else it is, is also a weapon of mass distraction, which was only released when the Democrats recognized they weren’t going to get the mileage out of trying to link Trump to Epstein anymore. When so many Democrats started for the door following Trump signing off on the release of those files, they shifted to this new chant, faster than a trucker can change gears.”

“Clearly this new plan was required to sway the public. It plays directly into this nonsense that Trump is a king, a tyrant, or whatever. Let’s also recall that, as I’ve said so often, the only government program the Democrats don’t like is the military. And guess what? The military knows this very well, so it’s logical to assume that the effect this will cause in the minds of the brave folks in uniform will be minimal. The Democrats know this. The actual target here is not the military, but rather, the voting public.”

“Then, too, please remember that these same Democrats had no problem with Obama hitting and killing US citizens with drones. They said nothing. Now, suddenly they’re all up in arms about an as yet unidentified “illegal order” of Trump? “

https://pjmedia.com/eric-florack/2025/11/22/why-are-democrats-suddenly-trying-to-get-the-military-to-defy-trump-n4946283

OBSERVATION - Other good points at the link. Important to realize that in a world where a ‘color’ revolution is in the early stages of development here, they are attacking a pillar of society - military integrity. I think it is also important to note that a lot has been bantered about concerning a declaration of martial law in the face of riots that may occur initiated by the left in advance of the 2026 mid terms (a la 2020 riots). These democrats are trying to plant seeds of doubt in the minds of culpable soldiers should such an operation occur.

MORE -
As noted before, the left is fomenting a color revolution. To achieve the leverage to overthrow the existing govt, color revolutions attack six key areas of society -

- Business,
- Labor,
- Faith,
- Education,
- Civil Service, and
- Military/Police.

The Six Pillars describe the underlying foundations that keep a government functioning. We can see action currently in all six areas, but more recently developments in the Business/Labor sector - MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2.

Now these congress critters are laying the foundation informational battlefield for the civil service and military/police pillars. Other analysts are indicating that the goal is to set up conditions in 2026 to bring this ‘resistance’ to a head to delegitimize the Trump administration in an effort to win back congress. The left is not afraid of using mass violence, as has broken out in other color revolutions, to try to delegitimize Trump too.

It is important to note that the key organizers and planners for this revolution are those now out of work from USAID and other now dead organizations who’s job was to foment color revolutions in other countries. They are just taking the tools and knowledge and turning them onto the US.

One other critical item I’m noting is that with this whole gang of six situation, Trump has lost a little of the edge of leading the MSM and controlling the focus by his actions. The MSM has risen to the ‘victim’ defense of the six - mean orange man threatening to kill them - defense while whitewashing and ignoring their statements and the purpose of that statement. In a recent press briefing, MSM continually made the claims that Trump was calling for their murder, while the press secretary turned those points back to the actions and statements of the six. The media barrage has made an effort to shape the public thinking that Trump has issued illegal orders to the military, while the MSM and gang of six fail to provide proof of any such orders - only insinuations.

Talking heads today will likely see more of an outrage of Trump threatening the lives of the six - while ignoring or suppressing the intent of their words to delegitimize the administration and sow discord in the ranks.

I don’t see this going away any time soon.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Nivida is causing concerns in the market because it is almost single handedly supporting the tech markets and more importantly the AI sector. It has created a bubble in the market that could burst should any issues come up and Nivida stumbles.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Last night, for around an hour, X enabled the feature that shows the actual location from which a tweet originates. Surprise! All those Gazans, tweeting about starving and dodging enemy fire? Actually located in Russia and Pakistan. Those “America First” advocates, who are hostile to Israel? Not exactly American: they are in Ireland, Pakistan, etc.

Apparently X reverted after an hour or so. Users are hoping the location feature will be made permanent so that more fake accounts will be exposed. We will see. In the meantime, Elon’s move has confirmed what most of us already suspected.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/11/geographic-reveal-exposes-fakes.php#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - This reveal is pretty darn interesting and important. Many indicate that “X” has become a leading source for people’s news and a swarming of essentially fake accounts spreading disinformation once again requires us NOT to believe everything we read on the internet.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Placing this here for situational clarity -

A major rift has erupted over the origins of a leaked 28-point peace plan made to end the Russia-Ukraine war after Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., said Secretary of State Marco Rubio personally told him and multiple senators that the document had been authored by Russia — not the the United States.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/ukraine-peace-plan/2025/11/23/id/1235690/

Following several days of outrage from both Democrats and Republicans in Congress over the 28-point peace agreement for Ukraine, claimed to have been written jointly by senior officials from the U.S. and Russia. Republican Sen. Mike Rounds announced tonight, after speaking with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that the proposal being circulated was a documents written by the Russians, not the United States.

Sen. Angus King stated that the leaked plan, which was allegedly provided to White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff by officials claimed to be representing Russia, was essentially a “wishlist” of demands by Russia and was not the position of the Trump Administration. Neither Rounds, King, nor any other Senator appeared to understand why it took the administration over three days to make clear the 28-point plan was not the policy being pushed by the U.S. State Department.

Republican Senators on the delegation to Halifax stated that they were also told by Secretary Rubio that he was unaware of any “ultimatum” provided to Ukraine requiring their agreement to the ceasefire plan before Thanksgiving, with the threat of pulling material and intelligence support from Kyiv.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1992386686144151708?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told US senators Saturday that the sweeping peace plan to end the nearly four-year war between Russia and Ukraine was not America’s — but merely a “leaked” Russian “wish list,” according to reports.

Rubio told a bipartisan delegation at the Halifax International Security Forum in Canada Saturday afternoon that the 28-point blueprint supposedly crafted to end the war is actually a Russian proposal, not a US initiative, according to South Dakota GOP Sen. Mike Rounds.

“He made it very clear to us that we are the recipients of a proposal that was delivered to one of our representatives,” Rounds said, Politico reported.

Speaking to reporters outside the White House Saturday, Trump said the US proposal was not his “final offer” but warned his patience was running thing, telling The Post that if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejects the plan, “then he can continue to fight his little heart out.”

The State Department appears to be openly accusing a group of Senators of lying about a conversation with Secretary Rubio.

OBSERVATION - A lot of smoke and questions. The sudden appearance of this 28 point document is one point in suggesting that Witkoff screwed up royally by not allowing State Dept review, but going straight to Trump.

Now the blowback is hitting with the administration claiming that it was not and never was the policy of the Trump Administration. However, to let it circulate as long as it did, has likely caused permanent harm to any further negotiations to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Witkoff needs to be taken off any further negotiations. He has screwed up so many times now that this latest developing goat rope is going to take a long time to get straightened out and has placed the country at risk.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-40 degree range, with increasing showers/rain towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 98 attack drones from multiple directions, including about 60 Shaheds. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or jammed 69 of them. Hits were recorded in 12 locations across the north, south, and east.

Powerful strikes have been reported in occupied Crimea, where drones targeted an oil refinery. Local sources confirm multiple impacts.
Ukrainian forces just hit one of Moscow’s largest power stations, the Shatura TPP. Massive explosion on the northern side of the Russian power plant have been reported.
Mobile power stations are reportedly been deployed to Shatura, following the drone strike. Emergency power is being rushed in to stabilize the local grid.

Russian losses per 23/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+920 men
+2 tanks
+8 ACVs
+26 artillery
+2 MLRS

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation Petrovske(Pazeno) village in Donetsk region and Tykhe and Vidradne in Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine

ISW. Ukrainian military officials continue to indicate that Ukrainian forces are pushing back Russian efforts to seize Kupyansk — in contrast to repeated Russian claims of seizing the town. Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov stated on November 21 that Russian forces continue to try to infiltrate into Kupyansk, but that the number of Russian soldiers in the northern part of the town has decreased to about 40 personnel.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

The situation in the Pokrovsk direction remains serious and dynamic as Russian forces continue attempts to seize Pokrovsk itself and encircle Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk). Russian milbloggers claimed on November 21 and 22 that Russian forces seized Pokrovsk and advanced north of the town. Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced along the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad highway in southern Rivne (between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad).

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1992427895533310064?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Analysis and Future Operations —

The fight on the ground still is centering on Kupyansk and Pokrovsk. Unless Ukraine is able to do something significant to turn the tide, both will be lost in the near future. But as in the case of Pokrovsk, it would be a very pyrrhic victory, with Russia having worked at it for something like 21 months and suffering massive casualties in personnel and equipment. When Pokrovsk falls, it doesn’t appear that Russia has the reserves or force structure to exploit the breakthrough and will have to face a new line of Ukraine defenses designed to eat the Russian forces up.

The whole ‘peace’ plan has apparently blown up in Trump’s face (See International General above). Potentially a disaster diplomatically and has caused chaos in Ukrainian / US / Europe actions.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas complying of Israeli violations because Hamas elements have attacked Israeli forces.

- More terrorists are attempting to escape the underground bunkers, either being killed or captured by IDF.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas is delaying the return of the three remaining hostages remains.

Hamas warned U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff that it could end the Gaza ceasefire after Israeli forces killed multiple terrorists attempting to breach security lines, according to a Saturday report from Saudi state-owned Al Arabiya.

“The agreement is over and [Hamas] is ready to fight,” sources told the Saudi outlet, according to The Jerusalem Post. The terror group added that the ceasefire must be mutual and that “Gaza will not become another Lebanon.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israeli waiting out the Hamas forces trapped within the Yellow Zone is working, as they are increasing their attempts to escape.

More and more focus is turning back to Israel having to resume fallout conflict with Hezbollah as well as Hamas as both defy the cease fire agreement and are attempting to rebuild their fighting forces. In the case of Hezbollah, the clock may be running out, looking to next month as a starting window for Israeli action.

In Gaza, Israel is free to operate in the Yellow Zone, but limited elsewhere in Gaza, due to the ongoing efforts by the guarantors of the agreement to disarm and remove Hamas from power. That effort seems to be running out of steam, and could eventually permit Israel to resume full operations against Hamas across the whole of Gaza.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Some are noting that Iran could have taken an edge off their water crisis if they would have invested in desalinization plants instead of missiles and nuclear weapons.

In addition to dry reservoirs (the recent cloudburst did nothing to relieve the situation), consequences of unsustainable groundwater extraction are being felt. This is seen by massive soil subsidence over the aquifer of in places several feet. This subsidence breaks underground utilities as well as damages foundations for buildings. Similar was seen in the late 20th century in Arizona.

Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025

One person was killed in an Israeli drone strike on a car in the town of Aita al-Shaab, Bint Jbeil district.
Sources close to the Al Hadath : The target of the Israeli raid in Aita al-Shaab was “Mohammed Saleh,” a member of Hezbollah.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Rumint. The United States is weighing options on Venezuela, including a potential attempt to overthrow the Venezuelan government, two sources tell Reuters. Four U.S. officials tell Reuters Washington is preparing to launch a new phase of Venezuela-related operations.

OBSERVATION - This rumor works double as psyops by itself.

Misc of Note –

A sudden stratospheric warming event has begun, deforming the Polar Vortex and setting the stage for a colder start to winter across the United States, Canada, and Europe.

Timeline of events:
- November 21: SSW event detected and begins
- November 25–28 (Thanksgiving): Peak disruption of the Polar Vortex in the stratosphere
- December 1–7: First major surface impacts (cold air) expected in the US/Canada
- Late December: Potential pattern shift bringing cold/snow to Europe.

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event has begun and is weakening the Polar Vortex. This is expected to bring colder winter conditions across the United States, Canada, and Europe.

A strong Polar Vortex locks cold air into the polar regions, creating milder winters. But when the Polar Vortex is disrupted or collapses, the cold air can escape, unleashing much colder winter conditions across the mid-latitudes (the U.S., Canada, and Europe).

Peak disruption of the vortex is forecast to occur around Thanksgiving in the stratosphere. However, the effects typically take around 2–3 weeks to propagate downward, meaning weather impacts should become visible across the mid-latitudes by early December.

This is one of the earliest collapse events on record. Only three similar early-season events have occurred in the last 70 years (1958, 1968, and 2000).

https://watchers.news/2025/11/22/polar-vortex-collapse-begins-colder-winter-expected-in-u-s-canada-and-europe/

OBSERVATION - The forecast gets complicated because of the influence of La Nina over the same period. About the only really general forecast for Dec - Feb/Mar is that cold is expected east of the Rockies and above normal precip in the northwest and northern Rockies. This could play out to be a wild winter all across the country. Check your preparations for potentially very adverse winter weather conditions.

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