Posted on 11/05/2024 7:52:28 AM PST by Red Badger
Just spoke to a Democrat consultant friend on the ground in a swing state who told me I could repeat some of what we discussed. Here's what I can tell you; take it with a grain of salt if you like but I think he's being straight with me.
Nobody really thinks Kamala is going to win at this point. Canvassing is going poorly almost everywhere, with few exceptions. The party is getting their high-follower influencer accounts to push out motivational stories just to keep morale up and get them over the finish line with some dignity, but it's not great. The Iowa poll was good to give a shot of adrenaline to volunteers, but nobody important believes those numbers are real.
Of all the swing states, they're hoping Michigan comes through and possibly a late-night miracle in PA, but nobody is counting on either of them. They don't think Trump is actually going to flip VA or NH, but the fact that they've even entered the conversation is indicative of how bad things could potentially turn out.
The early vote counts are just beyond what they expected to see for Republican turnout, and has Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place. Republican low-propensity voters are activated in a way nobody really expected and the polls didn't capture it. Yes it's possible those early Republicans broke Democrat in an unprecedented way, but very unlikely.
The campaign has switched entirely to 'woman vs. man' messaging, as liberal white women are the only reliable voter bloc they can even identify at this point.
Priority now is saving some downballot races and flipping the house so the night isn't a total embarrassment for Democrats.
Like I said, take this all with a grain of salt as this is secondhand information, but this is what I was told, and I think it tracks with other things we know.
12:56 PM · Nov 4, 2024
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2.1M Views
[I’ve been voting in NH since 1986. I’ve never missed a primary or presidential vote. In all of my years, I’ve never seen lines outside of the building and down the driveway of our school. I went by at 8:00 am and then went by at 11 am. Lines the whole time. This is epic.]
I pray your consultant friend is right. I just voted in the blue part of Ohio and I can tell you the line was overrun with man bun wearing libtards and blood thirsty women working for on demand abortion, anywhere, anytime.
Nobody is mentioning this line:
“...Dem strategists rethinking whether it was a good idea to make such a big push to broaden early voting in the first place.”
This is huge. They pushed for decades for ‘early voting’. They got it, practically universal.
Now they regret it when it turns on them and bites them in teh butt..................
Don’t know about black pills, but from early turnout reports it appears that the Revenge of the White Man is happening now.
“Black pill” references the tendency to have a bleak, doom and gloom outlook. It ties back to The Matrix options to swallow the blue pill (status quo, believe the media lies, nothing changes) or the red pill (realization, great awakening, down the rabbit hole, Revolution).
You need to move.
I expect a loss for Kameltoe and Pugsley, not 1984, but not 2000 either. My prediction, and I am sticking to it..., is the same exact results as 2016...but unfortunately, in our state...Casey wins again. People here in PA can be morons.
IMHO, Trump will not only crush Harris in EVs, he’ll win the popular vote.
Not too sure as I was speaking with my wife and a few neighbors——but now I think of it more men than women but I have no idea by how much. Don’t discount women as being “leftists”. The neighbors we have the wives are all Trump supporters.
Not me. But will you be shocked if there's a broken water pipe at a Philly vote center at 11pm?
I have no issue with “black pill” folks who provide hard data to support their assertions.
Almost none of them have done their homework.
For the most part they do not understand the differences in the process between 2020 and 2024—and again for the most part they appear oblivious to what the early voting numbers mean.
I will always pay attention to folks who have solid facts and sound logic to defend their views
I have an old High School buddy that works for Senator Joe Manchin, he pretty much said the democrat party high-ups wrote the Presidential race off after the entire Biden debacle back in the summer. Nobody thought Harris would be a strong candidate. What they were hoping is that Harris could manage to do good enough that perhaps Democrats take the House or hold the senate but weren’t optimistic. He said there were just too many headwinds going against them, the economy, Biden’s unpopularity, etc. and some untested candidate just wasn’t going to cut it.
I fear that a fair amount of that is Republicans switching from Election Day to early voting. But let’s hope not. A lot of polling showed that there was some switching, but not nearly the majority.
Well said—a black pill person can take any situation and turn it into a downer—regardless of the evidence.
It's true many have voted early, but to me, this is very telling!
Yup, that is what worries me. It is naive to think Democrats haven’t been registering illegals to vote.
I vote over a week ago and the thing that surprised me was all the young, military-age men in line. It shouldn’t surprise me, but it did. I’m talking 19-20 year olds.
“You need to move.”
I’m too old, roots are too deep here, but believe me, I think about it from time to time, like today.
If it swings in Republican favor, watch the dems become rigid Constitutionalists with regards to election day. Just like if the immigrant vote were to swing heavily red, there would be no bigger border hawk pushing for mass deportation than Chuckie Schumer.
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