Posted on 10/23/2024 5:31:27 AM PDT by Red Badger
Updated, 10 PM, 10/22/24
Good evening, blog mates.
Headline: Rurals matter.
Especially when they are turning out 3.5 points above their registration and producing landslide ballot wins (58-20) over the Ds. Consider that Other 22 percent will mostly go to Trump, too, and maybe we should be talking about the GOP firewall in the rurals this cycle. It’s up to 16,500 out of only 44,000 ballots cast -- and that's without allocating the indies.
R statewide lead: Almost 14,000
Clark D firewall: 5,000
Washoe D advantage: -2,200
Total voters: 320,000, or 16 percent of registered voters. Could be approaching a quarter of entire vote, depending on turnout.
Dems are only winning the urban Nevada ballot race by 1 percent – 38-37.
Repubs have a nearly 3 percent turnout advantage statewide. It’s 3.5 percent in Clark, less than a point in Washoe and Dems actually are turning out slightly more than Repubs in rural Nevada in percentage, but the reg is so overwhelming that it doesn’t help them.
The details:
Clark is about 72 percent of the turnout, a point under reg; Washoe is about 15 percent, or nearly 2 points under reg; and you know where the other 3 points go.
Latest mail vs. in-person:
Dems up 12 points in mail, which is 56 percent of turnout (holding steady). Repubs lead by 25 points in in-person voting, which is 44 percent of the total vote.
Here are the latest extrapolations under various electorate mixtures (if you forgot, the first breakdown is Dem voters, second one is GOP split and the third is others):
So right now, if Harris won indies by 6 and they both held their bases, she would lose by 7,000 votes.
The rural firewall. It’s a thing.
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The Democrats have us right where the want us. They will have all the information on how many votes they will need to win. Then they will pull the trigger and they will win by 200 votes. Remember Trump lead by 600,000 votes until they stopped counting in Pennsylvania .
I don’t understand how they know how these people voted. Are they just counting Party affiliation?
You nailed it.
Yes.................
Yes....Nevada registers by party and these are numbers based on those affiliations actually voting. That being said in Nevada 2020 Dems held a 83k edge in party ID..this year its down 19k..That being said the spike in independents in NV dwarfs both the Repub and Dem numbers. Independents now outnumber both parties in party ID by a lot.
Yes....Nevada registers by party and these are numbers based on those affiliations actually voting. That being said in Nevada 2020 Dems held a 83k edge in party ID..this year its down 19k..That being said the spike in independents in NV dwarfs both the Repub and Dem numbers. Independents now outnumber both parties in party ID by a lot.
Every silver lining has a cloud. Go away with your loser attitude.
Yup...I’m of the belief that we should have no information...however...if we were denied these numbers...you can be darn sure the Dems have insiders information.....so maybe it’s a good thing.
>> I don’t understand how they know how these people voted.
They don’t. It’s all inference based. That’s not to say it’s wildly inaccurate, but just as with polls there are definitely error bars around their conclusions.
One bright spot (to me): much has been said about how many good Christian folks don’t vote because of lack of interest and disgust with politics. It is possible that that that bad habit has been broken somewhat in this election.
Stick a fork in it......it’s all over but the hymn singing. The fat lady has sung. Turn out the lights. .....the party’s (democrat party) is over...as Dandy Don would say.
This is looking like a mandate for Trump.
And the debbie downers and negative nancy’s here on FR, the fatalists, ........sheeeeit.....anyone can be a debbie downer. Get outta here....sucka.
If this reporting is based upon actual precinct counts, the practice of early release of voting numbers NEEDS TO STOP!
A lot of counting of registered dim-0s or Republicans but, I wonder what % of registered dims are voting for Trump? I’d bet a pile are.
With the way you’re going, I think there’s nothing that can be done. vote on Election Day, and you’re screwed. Vote early, you’re screwed. What exactly are we supposed to do?
I’m not even going to respond to the original poster. You’re so right and the defeatist yapping is so tiring. At this point, what laws can be tightened have been tightened. All that’s left for us to do is to try to turn out enough votes to beat the cheat. That appears to be what’s happening. The constant naysaying is the speech of losers. Its endless repetition is not insightful, but it’s always proclaimed as if it is
Yes. They are assuming that the R ballot requesters vote Trump (and all other Pubbies on the ballot), D’s vote the other way and Indy’s naturally break our way because reasons.
Another dangerous assumption:
Back when Rats dominated early voting everywhere, we assured ourselves that it was no big deal because that meant there were fewer D’s to vote on election day while tons of Republicans would vote on E-Day.... and just watch our smoke bay-bee!!!! We’re gonna “swamp the vote!”
Oops.
So NOW, when Rats no longer dominate early voting we are assuring ourselves that a significant number of Dems who fail to vote early will not vote at ALL and the good guys will still dominate on election day.
Oops again. Probably.
“Remember Trump lead by 600,000 votes until they stopped counting in Pennsylvania .”
Also, Trump leads on average by 2.5% nationwide. Using 3.5 million average voters per State that is only about 90,000 votes per State. Peanuts to stuff that many ballot to cheat.
All the enthusiasm was there in 2020, too, but the dems cheated by over 20 million stuffed ballots.
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