Posted on 07/27/2024 5:31:03 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Democrats pulled a switcheroo with Joe Biden, knowing they were going to go down to defeat with him, after his disastrous debate made it impossible to hide his cognitive decline anymore.
Democrats are trying to whip up excitement over Kamala Harris. But are they going to be in any better position with Harris?
People were pointing to a Reuters poll that had Harris up by two percentage points. But that also had Democrats oversampled:
pic.twitter.com/S4biNwHZ8B— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
Then if you look at the recent, Real Clear Politics national polls, Trump is still up 1.7 percent in the average:
pic.twitter.com/n6svp1zyQ4— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
As CNN's data analyst Harry Enten explained, this is a big difference from 2020 and spells trouble in the Electoral College, if this holds. Biden was up in 2020 by four points in the national vote and barely made it in the official count in the Electoral College. Now, the RCP polling has Trump up 1.7, a more than five-point difference.
READ MORE: CNN's Harry Enten Drops the Reality Hammer on Kamala Harris' Dreams
Now, what does that mean for the Electoral College and the math?
pic.twitter.com/I3gKtF55Kc— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
With the light pink "leans" of Georgia and North Carolina, Trump has 251 to Harris' 226. The tans are the toss-ups/battleground states -- Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
If you look at the math, Republicans only need 19, Democrats need 44, assuming the map holds.
Democrats still have fewer ways than Republicans to 270. Democrats have three possible winning combinations. They absolutely have to have Pennsylvania. Republicans have five, and all they need to do is win Pennsylvania, if they hold onto the "leans" in Georgia and North Carolina. Hence, why Pennsylvania is so important.
pic.twitter.com/W5VSELx0Q8— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG)
pic.twitter.com/wYMw4L5scY— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
How is Trump doing in the battleground states now? Bottom line? It doesn't look good for Harris at this point, with the latest report. Trump is ahead or tied except in one state in a new nine-state survey by Redfield and Wilton:
While Harris leads Trump in Minnesota 44% to 41% (with Robert Kennedy Jr. at 6%), and the two are tied in Wisconsin at 44% each (with 5% to Kennedy), the other numbers go the former president’s way.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @RedfieldWilton
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 46% (+4)
🟦 Harris: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 44% (+3)
🟦 Harris: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 7%
—
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+5)
🟦 Harris: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
—
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 46% (+3)
🟦 Harris: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
—
NEVADA 🟥 Trump: 45% (+2) 🟦 Harris: 43% 🟨 RFK Jr: 5% —NORTH CAROLINA 🟥 Trump: 46% (+3) 🟦 Harris: 43% 🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
—
FLORIDA 🟥 Trump: 47% (+8) 🟦 Harris: 39% 🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
—
WISCONSIN 🟥 Trump: 44% (=) 🟦 Harris: 44% 🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
—
MINNESOTA 🟦 Harris: 44% (+3) 🟥 Trump: 41% 🟨 RFK Jr: 6% —
pic.twitter.com/bRKvcPcsny— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 26, 2024
In Arizona, Trump is up 46 to 43 percent with Kennedy at 4 percent. They toss in Florida (which I don't even think is a battleground state this year, although historically it has been). Trump is over Harris, 47 to 39 percent with Kennedy at 5 percent. Trump is up five points in Georgia, 4 to 42 percent, with Kennedy at 3 percent. In Michigan, Trump is ahead 44 to 41, with Kennedy at 7 percent. Nevada is at 45 to 43 percent, still for Trump, with Kennedy taking 5 percent. Trump is also ahead in North Carolina at 46 to 43 percent, with Kennedy at 4 percent. In the essential state of Pennsylvania, Trump is up by four points, 46 to 42, with 5 percent for Kenned:.
Emerson College polling conducted July 22 and 23 shows Trump with marginal leads in Arizona (+5), Georgia (+2), Michigan (+1) and Pennsylvania (+2).
And just like in the Redfield and Wilton survey, Emerson has the two candidates in a dead heat in Wisconsin.
SWING STATE POLLS with @thehill
Harris v. Trump
Arizona: Trump 49%, Harris 44%
Georgia: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Michigan: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
Pennsylvania: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Harris 47%
https://t.co/KzHiYgQQU4 pic.twitter.com/uTc2QYntcc— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) July 25, 2024
Arizona: Trump 49%, Harris 44%
Georgia: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Michigan: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
Pennsylvania: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Harris 47%
Here's what the map would look like there, if that bore out:
BREAKING: Trump beats Harris by 44 electoral votes based on Emerson polling.
Trump: 286
Harris: 242
pic.twitter.com/CjmOjTUeup— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) July 27, 2024
While the Democrats may be trying to create a groundswell over Harris, right now that's more smoke and mirrors than anything else. This is before she even faces any real attacks/ads against her for all her issues; this is in the "honeymoon bloom" period." She may get another bounce after their convention -- assuming she is picked and/or the protests against the Democrats don't completely throw the convention into chaos.
The point is despite all the machinations, the Democrats are still down with Kamala. Going forward, she isn't going to fare well when it comes to the issues that people care about and how she covered up Biden's cognitive decline, as the GOP pounds those points home.
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“People were pointing to a Reuters poll that had Harris up by two percentage points. But that also had Democrats oversampled: “
Define “oversampled”.
Hint: “They interviewed more Democrats than Republicans!” is nice and simplistic, but is not the correct answer.
The fumbling, bumbling assets in the state elections agencies are already in place. Question them and you'll be prosecuted and sued in civil court for millions while they head off to Aruba for six months. A beach in Aruba with no phone service or official mail service.
what are we to make of the fact that the 2 last presidential elections showed Trump DOWN by 10 pts but he ended up virtually tied. Now the polls are showing him 1 or 2 pts AHEAD. Did the pollsters adjust or is there still a huge ‘hidden’ trump vote which means he’s really UP by 10 pts now?
I have wondered that as well.
In 2020 the polling average was Biden +7 and the actual result was Biden +4.5
So Trump did overperform the polls but not by much. There’s no guarantee it will work that way again
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 44% (+3)
🟦 Harris: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 7%
RFK Jr. and Harris want the same things. If Harris is not projected to win near voting time, RFK Jr. will bow out.
RFK Jr. doesn’t want to see Trump as president for a second time.
Attacking Harris will do no good. Trump supporters know enough about her already. Independents don’t want Trump to be ‘mean’. Trump needs to be positive and sell his better Agenda 47.
Bflr
I know I'll be considered an idiot for saying it.
The Independents make up the largest voting bloc by far in the state.
They are mostly social liberals and fiscal right of center.
They are most definitely not far left, where appearance on RuPaul's Drag Show and 70% tax rates appeal to them.
The Democrat cities in Colorado have also been deluged by illegals - to where people are just fed up with them. The black community is tired of seeing the illegals get free everything, including housing and medical care.
There's a storm brewing in the state with extremely dark clouds.
Polling is light, with everyone assuming Colorado will just keep doing what it has done in the past.
The nation will be shocked on election night.
I believe he does. Trump is not stupid - he's already created an alliance with RFK Jr. There will be a "piece of the pie" for him in the new administration.
Shaboom. Biden was supposedly ahead in PA 7.4 (yeah, I know) this exact same point in 2020. I think Karamela is going to pick Shapiro and flush herself into history's sewer...
Not happening. Colorado is like California now. I see Trump more likely to flip New Jersey or New York before Colorado.
Oversampled democrats?
It doesn’t work that way. They have a turnout model based on 2020. Of course they kept dialing until they had a part mix equal to 2020’s, and when they finished with enough samples to fit the model, they had Harris+2.
It was Biden +2 in previous version. There was no change.
Other pollsters have different models. Watch for change, not snapshot, because no one knows what the right model is.
I think much of that hidden vote isn’t afraid to speak up now.
I could see New Jersey.
I don't believe Harris has more that a 5 point lead right now in Colorado. Biden won by 14 points.
Harris has a lot of baggage that points to a radical socialist position - including people losing their personal choice of healthcare.
Once that gets more light then I believe the 5 point lead will evaporate and she will also lose more of the black vote. Hispanics are leaning toward Trump already.
Too many Californians in Colorado.
“They have a turnout model based on 2020”
CNN released a survey earlier this week that showed 73% of Dem voters did not want Harris to be the nominee. I wonder how that is going to effect turnout for Dems? I wonder what the enthusiasm level for Dems is vs enthusiasm for Republicans?
“Oversampled democrats?
It doesn’t work that way. They have a turnout model based on 2020.”
You are correct that it indeed doesn’t work that way. But people see the D sample greater than the R sample and get hysterical and shriek about “muh oversampool!!”
The pollsters may use the 2020 turnout as a starting point for their modeling but if they STOP there then they aren’t really doing their job properly since what they are trying to predict is the *2024* election. Unless they (leftists, or pollsters with leftist clients) see their job as mainly gaslighting and trying to fool the public and pretend that 2024 will be exactly like 2020 was.
They may not be wrong about that, but if they’re trying to be accurate then the first thing they need to do is devise a *2024* turnout model.
And that’s anybody’s guess. But the data coming out of the poll is only as good as the model it is based on. Some polls will get it close, by accident if nothing else.
Then once early voting starts the models will start flailing wildly, trying to incorporate ballot request data, which is generally a fool’s game.
When polls fluctuate at the VERY end, we’ll all nod knowingly and declare that NOW they are suddenly concerned about accuracy instead of gaslighting, which probably isn’t a correct assumption. With so much Democrat voting done prior to election day, it’s never too late to try to demoralize last-minute (GOP) voters by using polls.
Is it too late for Gropin’ Joe to jump back in?
As if the cheaters care. She is the See You Next Tuesday in chief. Prepare accordingly.
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