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Americans are Poorer. The United States Misery Index Rises Again
Daniel Lacalle Blog ^ | 07/08/2024

Posted on 07/08/2024 12:55:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

I frequently receive comments about the strength of the United States economy and the unfairness of perceiving things as less than stellar. Is it really the “strongest economy ever”?

It’s evident that it’s far from being the “strongest economy ever.”

The United States unemployment rate has risen to 4.1%, the highest in three years, which is also significantly higher than the level seen in 2019. In June, a 70,000 increase in government jobs boosted payroll employment by 206,000. One-third of job creation is public sector jobs paid with more debt. Both the employment-to-population ratio and the labour force participation ratio are below the pre-pandemic level and immigrants account for all the labour force growth since the pandemic, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Ned Davis Research.

Inflation remains persistent and citizens have lost more than 24% of their purchasing power since 2019, with a 0.6% negative real wage growth in the January 2021–June 2024 period.

Real wage growth in 2024 is rising only 0.8% year-on-year.

This shows why the United States Misery Index is rising to 7.4% in June from 6.8% in January. The Misery Index, which measures unemployment and inflation, bottomed out in 2023 and has been worsening since then. Furthermore, the index is far away from the pre-pandemic level of 5.4%.

All these measures allow us to understand why Americans are negative about the economy. Despite messages of redistribution, social policies, and equality, the average citizen is poorer, and only the wealthy have been able to improve their position and navigate high rates and inflation thanks to investments in the stock market. While this shouldn’t come as a surprise, it’s important to remember. There is nothing social about increasing debt, deficit spending, and taxes.

The problem for most Americans is that it is increasingly difficult to make ends meet despite record government spending, or because of its negative impact on inflation and taxes.

There is a reason why we should be worried about rising discontent and impoverishment. The placebo effect of government spending on GDP is declining. Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.3 percent in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points from the previous estimate and a market slowdown. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

If we look forward, Americans are going to have to choose between two options:

  1. further impoverishment with Keynesian policies;

  2. or making a dramatic pro-growth turn where policy is targeted at improving disposable income, increasing investment, and strengthening productivity and real economic growth.

We know that it will be impossible to cut the current deficit with tax hikes. There is no revenue measure that will generate two trillion US dollars per year, and it is impossible to increase taxes further without punishing investment. The problem in the United States is mandatory spending, as the CBO expects outlays to reach 24.9% of GDP in 2036, while revenues will reach a record but insufficient 18%. If the Federal Reserve continues to monetize debt, Americans will suffer from the inflation impact as well as the rising cost of housing. The US dollar’s purchasing power will continue to decline. However, it is easier to create two trillion US dollars of productive GDI than to tax two additional trillion dollars per year out of the existing fiscal base.

Yes, the only solution for the United States is pro-growth, pro-business policies that defend the purchasing power of the US dollar. So-called social policies have only made everyone poorer and hurt the middle class.


Daniel Lacalle has a PhD in Economy and is a fund manager. He holds the CIIA financial analyst title, with a post graduate degree in IESE and a master’s degree in economic investigation (UCV).


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Society
KEYWORDS: economy; miseryindex
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1 posted on 07/08/2024 12:55:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

The bigger the gov’t get, the poorer and less free the people get.

Big unconstitutional gov’t - the Road to Serfdom.


2 posted on 07/08/2024 12:59:25 PM PDT by Jim W N (MAGA by restoring the Gospel of the Grace of Christ (Jude 3) and our Free Constitutional Republic!)
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To: SeekAndFind

But the nation’s elite...all of whom are Rat Party supporters...are better off today.


3 posted on 07/08/2024 12:59:28 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Never Trust A Man Whose Uncle Was Eaten By Cannibals)
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To: Gay State Conservative

There are actually many conservatives who are quite wealthy.


4 posted on 07/08/2024 1:00:13 PM PDT by proxy_user
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To: SeekAndFind
Americans are poorer.

Can confirm.

5 posted on 07/08/2024 1:03:30 PM PDT by xoxox
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To: SeekAndFind

Nobody in DC cares in the slightest.


6 posted on 07/08/2024 1:09:44 PM PDT by bray (It's not racist to be racist against races you do not like.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The Biden misery index is rising they mean


7 posted on 07/08/2024 1:10:13 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
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To: SeekAndFind
Its about time for a fireside chat...


8 posted on 07/08/2024 1:11:35 PM PDT by Magnum44 (...against all enemies, foreign and domestic... )
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To: SeekAndFind

Hey…I have and idea! Let’s start ww3. That will solve our misery problem!


9 posted on 07/08/2024 1:23:48 PM PDT by Jan_Sobieski (Sanctification)
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To: SeekAndFind
There is no revenue measure that will generate two trillion US dollars per year, and it is impossible to increase taxes further without punishing investment.

Wrong. History shows that marginal rate cuts INCREASE revenue. Also a 20% import tariff would bring in $1T/yr. Those two things, and small cuts in spending, would balance the budget. However making a dent in the accrued debt is another story.

10 posted on 07/08/2024 1:28:26 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: SeekAndFind

Misery loves company.


11 posted on 07/08/2024 1:30:43 PM PDT by Tommy Revolts (,,)
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To: xoxox

Duh; Marxist Dems brought it on, being let by an avowed Marsist; Obozo, Rice and Monaco.


12 posted on 07/08/2024 2:16:08 PM PDT by chopperk (are)
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To: SeekAndFind

And with actual inflation, even if you are richer, you’re poorer.


13 posted on 07/08/2024 2:16:52 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; not averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: bray
Nobody in DC cares in the slightest.

Exactly. They really don't care. When one is in the middle of a sexual or spending orgy, who does someone care about? Right. No one but self. Almost all of them have been or are participating in both events.

14 posted on 07/08/2024 2:34:27 PM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: central_va

Sounds to me like they better get working on doing these things before it gets worse. If the government just thought like individual consumers have to, maybe we wouldn’t be in this mess.


15 posted on 07/08/2024 2:58:45 PM PDT by oldtech
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To: SeekAndFind; FRiends

“...and immigrants account for ALL the labor force growth since the pandemic, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics...”

Oh, Goody! Import some more illegals, Brandon!

“In June, a 70,000 increase in government jobs boosted payroll employment by 206,000.”

This needs to be slashed to the BONE! Having worked for both the State and the Feds, I went through a number of ‘downsizes’ and you know what? The work STILL got done and no one lost their job - they just stopped creating ‘pretend’ positions for friends and relatives!

(Those jobs that the Son of the General gets right out of ROTC? Nothing more USELESS in this world than a Butter Bar 2nd Lieutenant, LOL! I’ve ‘trained’ a number of them through the years!)

Oh, man it SLAYS me that I used to run our Family Assistance Program on $30K a YEAR for the entire STATE of Wisconsin! And we had to go to the Wisconsin State Senate to ask for continued funding (this was during ODS) and good old Russ Feingold (D, WI) made it seem that he was writing us a personal CHECK for it! What an @ss. I was in my Class A Uniform that day and some punk hippie SPIT on me on the Capitol steps. And then he ran and I took off after him, but he was lucky I was in HEELS that day, LOL! My loathing for, ‘The People’s Republic of Madistan’ knows no bounds!

Amazingly, The United States is STILL ranked as the TOP ECONOMY, worldwide! And THAT, Kids, is WHY the Socialist Democrats are able to win elections and implement every devastating ‘policy’ (Constitutional or NOT!) that harms Americans and they get away with it! They have yet to run out of, ‘Other People’s Money’ and we still have a long way to go until we hit bottom, for as BROKE as we all feel these days. :(

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

Also: Taxation is THEFT! Inflation is THEFT! Plan your life accordingly. Thwart them at every turn! :)


16 posted on 07/08/2024 3:34:42 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have, 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set. )
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To: SeekAndFind

What did we think was going to happen when we offshored our manufacturing, technology, money, and tax base? Were we honestly stupid enough to think our lives were going to improve because they would only offshore everyone else’s jobs?


17 posted on 07/08/2024 3:51:19 PM PDT by TwelveOfTwenty (Will whoever keeps asking if this country can get any more insane please stop?)
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To: SeekAndFind

Poorer is better than dead, at the hands of your own parents. Poorer is better than perverteder, which is also true.


18 posted on 07/08/2024 4:19:34 PM PDT by If You Want It Fixed - Fix It
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To: TwelveOfTwenty

The fantasy was we were going to manage the world’s money. It didn’t work out.


19 posted on 07/08/2024 4:48:12 PM PDT by VTenigma (Conspiracy theory is the new "spoiler alert")
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To: bray

The richest county in the USA is a suburb of DC, Loudoun County, Virginia.


20 posted on 07/08/2024 6:58:33 PM PDT by brianl703
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