Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[BeauBo]

“Today’s $250M aid package. Interesting valuation, as a Patriot battery alone is 4X that price...”

Probably different pots of money, and the Presidential drawdown out of inventory (PATRIOT) doesn’t count against the Congressional supplement for Ukraine. Probably if/when they reorder that system to restock the inventory, they might use the Ukraine appropriation.

[BeauBo]

“Interesting that the SDB seems more jam resistant when air launched”

Fighter Pilot previously expressed his credible theory about that, but it went over my head at th time.

I believe it was something like the plane can give the bomb an accurate start point, from which it can calculate its whole flight, but the ground launched pops up and looks for GPS to get its bearings.

[BeauBo]

…and Romania makes 23 Countries that have signed long term support agreements with Ukraine. (This one includes the Black Sea)

Kyiv Independent reports:

“A key feature of this agreement (are) specific points of cooperation to strengthen security in the Black Sea region,” the Presidential Office said.

The announcement also reiterated that Romania will send Ukraine a Patriot air defense system, which was first reported in June.

Additional features of the agreement “cover intelligence and counterintelligence, cybersecurity, information security, humanitarian demining, sanctions, and the recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine.”

[blitz128]

Just tell ole joe that he won the election and it’s 2028, he wouldn’t know the difference

[blitz128]

I always love the last category “spare parts…” quite the catch all

[blitz128]

And what savings or investments they had were in “un” real estate, so buh bye

[PIF]

And what savings or investments they had were in “un” real estate, so buh bye

—
Most never had any savings of any kind. Rural people (the bulk of China’s population) lucky enough to find a job have now lost that job, and there is no work to be had anywhere, as low end assembly work has been largely phased out: the homeless in most any city would account for the US’s entire homeless population.

[blitz128]

3% form 17% is a pretty big “round up” lol

If something cost 17$ and the merchant said well we will just round up to 20$

Or the aid package is 61 billion we will just round up to 100 billion

As is said figures don’t lie but liars do figure

Appreciate your breakdown of the facts

[PIF]

Interesting articles:

Transfer of F-16s to Ukraine is Now Underway
The expectation is that the fourth-generation fighters, donated by Denmark and the Netherlands, will be operational over the skies of Ukraine this summer.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/transfer-of-f-16s-to-ukraine-is-now-underway

—
Air Force’s Cheap And Fast to Produce Long-Range Missile is Being Built For Ukraine
The Extended Range Attack Munition [ ERAM range of up to 250 miles ] aims to give Ukraine a badly needed capability boost in its ability to strike over hundreds of miles.
https://www.twz.com/air/air-forces-cheap-and-fast-to-produce-long-range-missile-is-being-built-for-ukraine

—
Ukraine Situation Report: Russian Strategic Missile Testing Facility Attacked
The attack on the Kapustin Yar site 400 miles from the front lines appears to be another in a string of Ukrainian strikes on Russian strategic military assets.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-situation-report-russian-strategic-missile-testing-facility-attacked

—
Ukraine’s FrankenSAM Air Defense Concept Could be Used to Protect USAF Bases
Rapidly developed to meet an urgent Ukrainian requirement, the FrankenSAM concept is now being eyed for the U.S. military.
https://www.twz.com/air/ukraines-frankensam-air-defense-concept-could-be-used-to-protect-usaf-bases

—
Navy to Explore Arming Other Ships With Missiles Amid Constellation Frigate Woes
Congress wants the Navy to look at turning large uncrewed vessels into crewed missile ships, arming cargo ships, or buying something new.
https://www.twz.com/sea/navy-to-explore-arming-other-ships-with-missiles-amid-constellation-frigate-woes

—
U.S. Long-Range Missiles Headed to Germany as Arms Race Escalates
After a decades-long hiatus, American long-range missiles will return to Europe as the standoff between Moscow and NATO grows.
https://www.twz.com/air/u-s-long-range-missiles-headed-to-germany-as-arms-race-escalates

[PIF]

Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos

Reporting From Ukraine Uncensored Combat Footage (from this and past Reports) is found on Telegram:
https://t.me/RFUEnglish or @RFUEnglish
[ You need to have the Telegram app to view. ]

The complete transcript.
—
[ Russian Soldiers Turn Against heir Commanders ]

—
Today [ July 11 ], there are a lot of updates from the Kharkiv direction.

The most interesting news comes from the area of Lyptsi. Here, the Russians degraded their main offensive forces to the point where the only way to compensate for the losses became the recruitment and deployment of mercenaries from Central Africa and Sri Lanka.

In this region, the Russians are struggling to advance with a limited number of troops, attempting to justify the Kharkiv offensive that has so far failed to achieve its declared objectives. Approximately 8,000 Russian soldiers are engaged in the fighting in Kharkiv, significantly outnumbered by Ukrainian forces by at least 3:1.

Consequently, the Russians are unable to make headway due to fierce resistance and heavy losses. Without reinforcements, their position in the region is at risk of collapsing.

The Kharkiv front has often been neglected by the Russian command, resulting in a shortage of reinforcements from regular troops. This neglect led to the deployment of foreign mercenaries from Africa, speculated to be associated with the Wagner Group. The Wagner Group previously maintained a substantial presence in Africa, with numerous military instructors and recruitment centers across Central Africa.

However, it turned out that these were African recruits of the Russian army. While they are not part of the Wagner Group, it is highly likely that the Russian army is using Wagner’s infrastructure in Africa for recruiting mercenaries.

Additionally, many former Wagner fighters have joined the Russian military in units like Storm-Z, suggesting that Wagner instructors in Africa have likely participated in organizing the African Corps.

The Russian government is actively trying to attract individuals from Africa and developing nations by offering a monthly salary of $2,200, health insurance, and Russian citizenship for recruits and their families.

This offer is highly appealing to many people from underdeveloped regions, such as Burundi, Congo, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, where the average monthly income ranges from $15 to $50.

The Russian Africa Corps, established in December 2023, comprises around 2,000 fighters, including officers, soldiers, experienced mercenaries, and new recruits, many of whom previously served in Wagner. According to British intelligence, the Russian command deployed the Africa Corps to the Belgorod region in April. This deployment was later confirmed by footage from the area.

In one such video, an African mercenary, likely separated from his squad, is detected by a Ukrainian drone. The mercenary helplessly tries to defend himself from the drone using a wooden stick Such irregular and ineffective actions by foreign mercenaries result from inadequate training and instructions, amplified by a significant language barrier.

However, even if we set aside the low quality of African mercenaries, even the deployment of the entire African Corps of 2,000 servicemen will still not be enough to hold the lines in the Kharkiv direction.

To address the manpower shortage, the Russian army has expanded its recruitment campaign to Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan and Russian delegations, including Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Formin, have met to discuss the involvement of Sri Lankan nationals in the Russian army.

It is known that over 200 Sri Lankans have died in the conflict so far, and ongoing Russian recruitment efforts could attract many more mercenaries. Additional footage confirms the deployment of Sri Lankan mercenaries, including one fighter who was fortunate enough to be captured.

The recent summit between Putin and Kim Jong-Un may indicate further deployment of foreign fighters to the front in Ukraine, particularly in the Kharkiv direction. Although North Korean troops or mercenaries have not been deployed, Russia has used North Korean Hwasong ballistic missiles to strike Kharkiv city.

In addition to the missiles, a substantial quantity of artillery shells was supplied to the Russians. However, the quality of these North Korean shells is inferior, as most have been in stock for decades and have become unusable. Some Russian soldiers have reported that their artillery is suffering from barrel wear, which isn’t being replaced, leading to devastating gun failures.

In one of the videos from the area, a Russian artillery piece is seen exploding due to barrel wear, causing a detonation that destroyed it and tossed the gun aside. Additionally, the artillery pieces that functioned correctly often fired defective shells due to inconsistent amounts of gunpowder. This inconsistency can prevent the shells from exploding or impacting the target, rendering Russian artillery shelling ineffective.

To compensate for the lack of functional artillery pieces and shells, the Russian command had to quickly redeploy artillery from the Kherson direction to Kharkiv to prevent a collapse of the front.

Overall, Russians are running low on manpower and artillery shells, leading to desperate attempts to replenish losses with low-quality mercenaries from Africa, due to a lack of general reinforcements in this direction. Such a development of the situation can lead to a window of opportunity for the Ukrainians to launch a decisive offensive against Russian forces north of Liptsy to push them out.

[PIF]

Kremlin snuff box, 07/12/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

At the front they are talking about problems with armored vehicles. Is it possible to solve it? And most importantly - is it necessary?

For almost the entire year 2024, there has been a shortage of armored vehicles at the front. And here is a complex problem that is worth talking about. We are talking not only about tanks, but also about infantry fighting vehicles, MTLBs and other types of armor used by troops in the Northern Military District zone.

The main problem is that the active use of FPV drones by the parties has essentially led to the fact that they are trying not to use armored vehicles near the immediate front line. After all, this is a priority target for the enemy. However, in the first six months, we suffered very serious losses in this component. We will not disclose the numbers, although we know them.

In addition, the capabilities of our defense industry to repair and produce armored vehicles do not allow us to make up for losses in a timely manner.

It is for this reason that motorcycles, golf carts, automotive equipment and even, according to some sources, large electric scooters are actively used.

Interlocutors at the Ministry of Defense say that the problem with armor can be solved either by purchasing it externally or by expanding production and repair of our own. Or better yet, both.

However, there is no urgent need for this, our sources assure. “Armor is the priority target for a drone operator on the battlefield. And no one is in a hurry to fly after a motorcycle,” the source said. At the same time, the army is quite skeptical about the fact that it is necessary to attack enemy positions essentially without cover. [ Effectively making Russian troops light infantry. ]

[blitz128]

True, and the “middle class” are rapidly being reduced to poor

Many of the invested in real estate

Chinese GDP is similar in nature to Russian GDP claims. Coming from the govt…

Things move slow till the dont

[blitz128]

Maybe charge of the light brigade is next, bring back the horse cavalry, guess we sort of have that with the golf carts and motorcycles, but just wait for t-34s and horses. Winning

[blitz128]

If Ukrainian reports of Russia. Artillery loses are even remotely accurate, then this will become an even more and more of an issue for Russians

Smash and grab is all they have, take away or severely curtail the smash and they just have meat waves

If the air component can be effectively dealt with any Russian hopes of advances become distant

However Ukrainian advances IMO will still depend on some sort of Russian collapse at the front even if in just certain sectors

This kind of thing becomes contagious when it starts

[BroJoeK]

BroJoeK #3,712: “Since the end of 2022, Russians have conquered another roughly 300 square miles of Ukraine, at a cost of circa 400,000 casualties.”

BeauBo: "Wow. That really puts it into perspective. No way that is sustainable."

Like everything else here, "sustainable" is a matter of definitions and perspectives.

Consider this:

• Second World War -- just Russia alone (not the entire USSR), lost about 14 million people, or roughly 2.5 million per year on average, over 5-1/2 years.
  That's almost 13% of Russia's population.
  The equivalent today would be about 18 million Russians dead over 5-1/5 years -- or around 3-1/4 million per year.

  Estimates of Russian casualties in Ukraine vary, with the highest number I've seen at around 800,000 total, suggesting perhaps 200,000 killed over 2-1/3 years or circa 85,000 per year.
  Lower estimates are maybe half that.

  So, my point is -- while Ukraine war deaths are Russia's highest since the Second World War, they are still orders of magnitude less that WWII.

  

• First World War -- which Russia lost -- Russia suffered about 3 million killed, or roughly 1 million per year.
  In today's equivalents, that would be roughly 2.4 million total, or around 800,000 killed, per year.
  So still, the Ukraine war is orders of magnitude less.

Looking at Russia's lost wars since 1900, we can compare:

1. Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905) -- ~75,000 Russian deaths. Result: 1905 Revolution

2. First World War (1914-1917) -- ~3,000,000 Russian deaths. Result: Communist Revolution

3. Soviet-Finish War (1939-1940) -- ~200,000 Soviet deaths. Result: Nazi invasion of USSR

4. Russo-Afghan War (1979 - 1989) -- ~25,000 Soviet deaths. Result: Collapse of Soviet Union

I see no particular pattern, except that losses finally grew large enough to convince Russian/Soviet leadership their war must end.
The key was always: what were Russians prepared & able to suffer versus, what the wars forced them to.
Clearly, in the Russo-Japanese War and Afghanistan they just weren't ready for truly major efforts.

Finally, it's well worth remembering that,

• First World War, Russia's decision to surrender in 1917 was based on refusals of French, British and Americans to send enough military aid to keep Russia in the war.

• Second World War, the West sent Soviets massive volumes of aid which helped keep them in the fight despite unimaginable millions of deaths.

So the question today is whether CCP China, NoKo, & Iran will support Russia, the way the US & UK did in the Second World War.
If they do, we might expect Russia to fight on for a very long time indeed, despite unimaginable casualties.

Today's New Axis of Evil Dictators: