"Earlier this week, retired Polish brigadier general, Jaroslaw Kraszewski, said the arrival of the jets could help create the conditions for a Ukrainian counterattack...
...Ukraine has already learned the hard way the costs of launching a counteroffensive without air superiority, and it was a major factor in the failure of last year's attempt to break through Russian lines...
..."F-16s with the right armaments will be able to push away Russian warplanes. The northwestern part of the Black Sea, particularly the corridor for civilian ships, will be almost 100% secure," (Ukrainian Navy Commander Oleksii Neizhpapa) said...
..."First, they won't be the latest and most modern variants, and they are going into a high-threat environment, both from Russia's own aircraft and from longer-range ground-based air defenses," Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said.
"They are useful and give the Ukrainians some more options, but we should be cautious about them 'turning the tide' and how soon they will be operationally effective."...
...The F-16s will likely have two main roles, experts said, one defensive and one offensive...
...Ukrainian national air defense commanders might try to use the short-range guns – like the Gepard – to kill the Shaheds, use the F-16s to kill the cruise missiles, the older SAMs to kill the ballistic missiles, and the Patriots to kill the Kinzhals."
In an offensive role, Layton said F-16s could be used to replicate one of Russia's more successful military innovations used during the full-scale invasion – glide bombs...
..."They could meaningfully help support a counteroffensive," (former Royal Australian Air Force officer and Associate Fellow at RUSI, Peter) Layton said, adding: "If they had large glide bombs, these could be used in pre-planned missions to literally blast openings in the Russian trench systems.
Ukraine is working on its own glide bombs – on June 9, Serhii Golubtsov, the chief of aviation of the Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said the first tests would be conducted "in a few weeks (from 9 June)."...
...Operations over the Black Sea would be limited by the F-16's limited range, Layton said, and they would also need support from aircraft such as the two ASC 890 radar reconnaissance and control aircraft donated by Sweden earlier this year.
Working together, they could feasibly hunt down Russian aircraft... to push away the Russian bomber aircraft firing cruise missiles at Ukraine from the Black Sea...
...One thing that could actually be a game-changer for Ukraine would be the destruction of Russian aircraft on or over Russian territory.
Being able to take out Russian fighter jets would prevent the dropping of glide bombs, while the taking out of Russian bombers would prevent the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure...
...Using (F-16s) in a straight air-to-air fight or flying against air defenses that haven't been suppressed would lead to them taking a lot of risks with scarce resources and pilots..
...The large bombers launching the largest and fastest cruise missiles do so from long distances, often over Russian territory, where it would be difficult for the F-16s to approach within sufficient range to launch at the Russian aircraft...
...There's also one other crucial factor to consider – the number pledged so far for Ukraine is 79, which Zelensky, as well as other Western leaders, have said is simply insufficient in the face of Russia's air power.
While the F-16s may not be a game-changer and will unlikely lead to the swift loss of hundreds of Russian aircraft, they are undoubtedly an improvement on what Ukraine currently has and could help incrementally push some aspects of the war in Kyiv's favor."