Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
Local sheriffs warning of arrests of FEMA associated individuals if they interfere with independent relief efforts, noting that many areas have drifted into a WORL (Without Rule of Law) conditions.
It's about time.
Long overdue, IMO, but good that it's happening.
We wouldn’t be in any danger of terrorist activity in this country if the government didn’t aid and abet the importation of terrorists.
Any terror attacks can also be laid at the feet of the current administration.
What SW gear?
Thanks Godzilla
Posted about three days ago : "..Baofeng UV-5R "
Never thought we would see this day. Trump saw the 'America Last' horror before the rest of thought it could be real... but this - this - this is still shocking. I'm assuming FEMA knows North Carolina is vote critical - and they're willing to risk the lives of people living in damaged red areas of North Carolina to suppress traditional Americans' vote. It's dreadful. Worse than I thought it would become. Elon and other good people are trying to help. Pray for them.
Thanks, missed that. Their gear comes up quite a lot.
All burocracies in DC are corrupted FBI doj fcc faa you name it. All lowlife creatures of the swamp.
Israel/iran update
Getting reports of a lot of jet activity over Iraq and particularly Baghdad. It is post sabbath over there and some think the activity is related town imminent Israeli strike.
Earlier additional US air refueling tankers arrived in the Middle East
Monitoring
Thank you for the ping, Godzilla.
Strike? Iran? Tehran and Baghdad are about 400 miles apart...
thoughts last night concerned passage of IAF over Iraq. Seems this morning, though the activity was unusual, folks in the region are jittery.
Officially up and running on HF frequencies. Made a quick contact to someone 250 miles away (short distance relative to HF), didn’t try to do more because there was some serious competition going on (seeing who could get the most contacts in the event period). But monitoring did show i received signals from across the US and possibly into Mexico/Central America.
Globalism / Great Reset –
CNN interview
Hillary Clinton says that social media companies must censor people’s content or else “we lose total control.”
OBSERVATION - Its pretty well established that hillary was a hard core totalitarian. Here she echos the same global standard Lurch did a few days ago. Only sanctioned speech should be allowed. The unspoken assumption is that there will be punishments for those who oppose the regime.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
NYC and other major metro areas may face enlarged pro-islamic terror protests with the approach of Oct 7. There is increasing potential for rioting and vandalism.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Trump returned to Butler, Penn where he was nearly killed three months ago to kick off the final month of campaigning for the WH. Attendance was estimated by some to be close to 100,000. At the time the shots were fired, all paused to remember the murdered firefighter and the others wounded. Elon Musk also came onto the platform to emphasize that not only is the First Amendment threatened by the democrats, but the whole constitution.
Trump reportedly will be hosting a rally every day up to the election.
***
If history trends are being followed, the polling should tighten down to what is expected on election day. Key for those to look at are the internals for over sampling, registered vs likely voters, etc. I think there will be some polling firms go down with the ship though as IMHO polling will heavily tilt to trying to suppress enthusiasm for trump turn out.
On a big brush level, harris is in trouble. Compared to hillary’s polling in 2016, she is underperforming and her past seems to be catching up with her. Hillary was at that phase shown to be ahead by double digits, while harris is shown to be squeaking by at a few points.
It aint over till its over.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Kamala Harris was left repeating the same phrase after her teleprompter appeared to malfunction in an embarrassing gaffe at a Michigan rally.
The Vice President was speaking to a crowd in Flint when the system appeared to glitch.
‘Remember his number 32 today? We got 32 days until the election,’ Harris says.
Illegal Immigration –
CBS News Reports:
The Biden administration will not be extending the legal status of tens of thousands of Venezuelan migrants who were allowed to fly to the U.S. under a sponsorship program designed to reduce illegal border crossings, according to U.S. officials and internal documents obtained by CBS News.
The administration first launched the program in October 2022 to discourage Venezuelans from traveling to the U.S.-Mexico border by offering them a legal way to enter the country if American-based individuals agreed to sponsor them. It was then expanded in January 2023 to include migrants from Cuba, Haiti and Nicaragua, whose citizens were also crossing the U.S. southern border in record numbers at the time.
OBSERVATION - Interesting home stretch of the presidential campaign move. Do they expect them to self deport?
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 56 of 87 Shahed drones overnight. Odesa was hit by some that got thru.
Russia pressing the attack in Donbas, but achieving very little.
Russia lost one of its batwing ‘stealth’ drone/wingman unmanned aircraft, one of two in existence, after reportedly Russians lost control of the guidance system and they decided to shoot it down to prevent it getting into Ukraine and eventually western hands.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Ukraine has been increasing and strengthening defensive line around Pokrovsk should Ukraine have to pull back from current positions.
Russian Territory –
There was a fire in Kuzminki, after a Ukraine drone attack on the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School.
Outlook —
No real changes except that Russian is beginning to lose its race with the weather. Fall rains are starting and will soon turn the soil into a quagmire, severely restricting maneuvering.
Watching for another series of large missile strikes from Russia - they are due.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- Massive airstrikes hitting ammo dumps in S Beirut, with huge secondary explosions, called the worst night since the bombing started.
- IDF launches new operations in N Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Prime Minister Netanyahu: “About a month ago, towards the end of the destruction of the Hamas battalions in Gaza - we began fulfilling the promise I gave to the residents of the north. We killed Nasrallah and the top of Hezbollah. We killed the commanders of the Radwan force who planned to invade the Galilee and carry out a greater and more terrible massacre of our citizens than the one on October 7. Iran has twice launched hundreds of missiles at our territory, in one of the largest ballistic missile attacks in history. No country in the world would have accepted such an attack, nor would the State of Israel, and we will respond to these attacks.”
United States CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla landed in Israel yesterday to meet with Israeli defense and military officials, amid preparations in the Israeli army for a response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack
***
The Israeli military says it has reinforced security in southern Israel ahead of the anniversary of the 7 October attacks.
A statement says it is on heightened alert for threats in the region this week, and is preparing for possible “defense and offense” operations.
The IDF says extra troops have been deployed to communities close to Gaza.
A number of memorial events are planned to mark one year since Hamas launched deadly raids into southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.
***
On Saturday French President Emmanuel Macron called for a halt to arms shipments to Israel for use in Gaza. He told national broadcaster France Inter in an interview that finding a “political solution” to the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts must be a “priority” and that a full arms embargo would help create the conditions.
Netanyahu’s response was direct and to the point to the French President’s call to impose a Western arms embargo on Israel:
“We will win with or without you, but your disgrace will remain long after the victory in the war.”
Netanyahu also announced this evening on the Iranian issue:
“It is Israel’s right and duty to respond - and we will do so.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Regarding Sinwar, Qatar authorities are saying -
“He has disappeared for us too and has not made contact,” the officials were cited as saying.
***
The IDF’s 162nd Division launched a new ground operation last night in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya, the military says.
The IDF says the division’s 401st and 460th armored brigades encircled Jabaliya overnight, and troops are currently operating in the area.
The operation comes after the IDF says it has intelligence of Hamas operatives and infrastructure in the Jabaliya area, alongside efforts by the terror group to re-establish itself there.
As troops entered the area, the IDF says it carried out a wave of airstrikes and artillery shelling, targeting dozens of Hamas sites in Jabaliya, including weapon depots, tunnels, cells of operatives, and other infrastructure.
“The operation will continue as long as necessary, while systematically striking and thoroughly destroying the terror infrastructure in the area,” the IDF says.
The IDF calls on residents of the northern Gaza Strip to go south in advance of the operation.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli military announced that it carried out a series of targeted air strikes on Hezbollah sites, including “many weapons depots and other militant infrastructure,” targeting the southern suburbs with more than 30 strikes, the echoes of which were heard in Beirut.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati called on Sunday for “pressure on Israel” to “ceasefire” after a night of violent raids that rocked the southern suburbs of Beirut, a stronghold of Hezbollah. “We demand pressure on Israel to commit to a ceasefire and implement Resolution 1701 immediately,” Mikati said in a statement.
Israeli media reports the killing of Mohammad Anisi, one of the leaders of Hezbollah’s precision missile project, in an airstrike on Beirut
Lebanese media: Hezbollah senior official Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyed refuses to assume leadership of Hezbollah, and requests to travel to Tehran in order to devote himself to worship in Iran.
***
Observers are noting that Hezbollah appears to be trying to avoid decisive engagements with the IDF.
Israeli sources reported that Hezbollah is trying to keep its forces at a distance and will withdraw shortly after making contact with the IDF.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
An Israeli raid targeted a convoy of four-wheel drive vehicles leaving a car manufacturing plant in the Hasya area, on the outskirts of Homs city.
A massive explosion struck the Hasiya Industrial City, South of Homs-city from an Israeli airstrike
Explosions in area of Qusseir (South-West Homs) following Israeli raids on the area bordering Lebanon
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
France calling for and international embargo on military supplies to Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel continues to hammer the Hezbollah district in S Beirut, hitting large ammo storage sites with a spectacular display of secondary explosions.
In S Lebanon, Israel is growing the ground assault and clearing the Hezbollah prepared positions. As noted above, it appears Hezbollah doesn’t want to be fully engaged, knowing they are out gunned, and are likely trying to stage an organized retreat under the cover of ambushes and ATGM attacks. These tactics are somewhat similar to what they did in 2008, but in this case, Israel appears to have anticipated it and are more effectively countering those tactics.
The tactics of Hezbollah in S Lebanon suggest that on a tactical level, there is still some level of effective command and control. However, as initial action reports come in, IDF is attriting those leaders as well, which is probably why they now don’t want to become decisively engaged.
With growing push of Israeli forces into S Lebanon, the options for Hezbollah to fall back will grow slimmer and slimmer. They will have to try to stand their ground at some point.
It is almost untraceable at this stage, the numbers of senior Hamas, Hezbollah and IRGC leaders Israel takes out on a daily basis. It has reached a point where some like Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyed are running away from being appointed leader of Hezbollah.
Big action in N Gaza but not unexpected. Israel continues to let elements of Hamas regroup, pulling the remnants into a defined area, then raiding them to take them out.
Jumpy nerves in the areas around Iran. Last night alerts concerning the observation of an unusual number of jets over Baghdad, combined with NOTAMS for Iran caused jitters that the awaited counter strike was imminent. Fog of war.
However, the general consensus is that Israel will be hitting and very soon. Besides the speculation that near the top of Israel’s list are oil & gas facilities, other targets include missile bases, presidential complex, Khamenei’s compound & Revolutionary Guards command centers in Tehran.
Delivery of destruction may bring a few surprises, like I suspect that Israeli subs operating in the gulf will use cruise missiles - potentially on Kharg Island as well as other targets. Israel may use ballistic missiles of its own as Iran lacks any real ABM capabilities.
Again, I see tomorrow as a very symbolic day to launch such an attack.
Iran –
The Iranian Civil Aviation Authority has issued a NOTAM (Notice-to-Air Missions) for significant portions of its western airspace, indicating that commercial flight paths will be closed every night from 1700 to 0130 UTC due to “Military Exercise.” Thru Oct 9.
Misc of Note –
More fury surrounding Helene and related.
Conservative commentator Breanna Morello accused the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) of diverting disaster relief funds to address the ongoing influx of illegal immigration.
FEMA’s rumor control central went out an called this ‘false’. Until Morello posted supporting documentation from FEMA itself.
The fact that FEMA has wasted money with their Rumor Control Central, point us to an old adage - where there is smoke, there is fire. There are plenty of leftist supporters more than willing to present a false narrative on a wide range of subjects, that these few influences claiming to refute the massive numbers of first hand accounts by residents of the hit regions is flat out suspect. Staged photo ops in peripheral areas. Even one claimed to have penetrated into the heart of damaged area actually in many ways confirmed the reports of no FEMA presence.
BTW a new storm is gathering strength and targeting central/southern Florida.
I sure hope Jews worldwide are ready and alert. I could see the terrorists worldwide ready to act in many locations around the world outside Israel since it’s so well known that Israel is on high alert for this sad 1 year anniversary.
Tropical Storm Milton
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4269109/posts
A little excitement overnight, a 4.1 mag earthquake hit the town of Dillon MT, my wife was up getting a drink of water at the time and felt the house shake here at our home in the Redoubt 40 miles away. I being sound asleep —geologist frump :( — missed the fun
This week has all the potential to be another barn burner. Second major hurricane targeting Florida, impending Israeli counter strike on Iran, election chaos and more.
Globalism / Great Reset –
In a recent article in the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR), Kyle Pope, co-founder of the Covering Climate Now (CCN), asked for input on a project produced through an association of the CJR, Covering Climate Now, Solutions Journalism Network, as well as politically left-wing outlets The Guardian and The Nation.
The project is called the “Climate Blueprint for Media Transformation,” which encourages reporters to insert climate change into every story and to view fossil fuel industry voices as inherently dishonest. CCN also openly promotes the idea that journalists should not be objective when reporting on climate and energy.
OBSERVATION - Now you see why the globalists must censor (and punish) those offering alternative view to the desired narrative. They can’t afford to have their brainwashing machine exposed for what it is. In this case its their old tipping boy - fossil fuels.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
With the pending Israeli strike on Iran, potential for the breakout of protests by pro-islamic groups, with the support of antifa types, is moderately high.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
(RealClearInvestigations)—Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency told Congress last month that it had $4 billion in its Disaster Relief Fund, officials also warned that the Fund could have a shortfall of $6 billion by year’s end, a situation FEMA says could deteriorate in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.
While FEMA is expected to ask Congress for new money, budget experts note a surprising fact: FEMA is currently sitting on untapped reserves appropriated for past disasters stretching back decades.
An August report from the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Inspector General noted that in 2022, FEMA “estimated that 847 disaster declarations with approximately $73 billion in unliquidated funds remained open.”
https://americafirstreport.com/untapped-relief-fema-is-sitting-on-billions-of-unused-disaster-funds/
OBSERVATION - Bureaucratic bloat of the worst kind, and its not just here but throughout govt. It does demonstrate the disingenuous nature of the alphabet agencies and funding. In FEMAs case even worse by accusing the republicans of not funding it, when they waste the vast majority of it.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris and Walz are essentially being forces out to do interviews - being dangerous for both because they have such a tangle of lies and flipflops and in harris’ case, wordsaladitius things can become disastrous. Case in point, Walz was interview by Fox and walked strait into a meat grinder over challenges from his most basic, core stances and statements.
Illegal Immigration –
Buried in the news is illegals entering have declined again in September, but still at a pace exceeding the Trump years.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Air defense shot down 2 of 3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles and 32 Shahed-type drones(from about 75)
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Hrodivka town in Donetsk region of Ukraine
Crimean front —
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirmed attack at naval oil terminal in Feodosiya, occupied Crimea. Massive fires shown in videos posted on social media. Civilians forced to evacuate.
Outlook —
Well, same old, same old. Russia continues it bloody push into Donbas with heavy losses and only making the most minor gains.
Unconfirmed reports that Russian missile boats are venturing back into the Black Sea, so we may see both missile attacks plus drone attack boat action in the coming days.
It appears that Russia’s current nuclear threats against the west is paying off as more NATO nations are not allowing weapons to be used in Russia.
Belarus -
More lost Russian Shahed drones have been wandering around Belarus in past days.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- One year anniversary of the Oct 7 massacre and attacks by Hamas.
- Major action in N Gaza
- Third Israeli division committed to Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
One year ago, Hamas violated a ceasefire and launched the latest round of fighting in the middle east. Since then, Hamas and Hezbollah have fired 26,240 rockets, missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles towards Israel.
Galant to CNN: All options on the table regarding response to Iran. We are coordinating closely with Washington as we prepare to respond to Iran, but we will make our own independent decisions regarding the response
Various news sources are saying US officials have offered Israel extensive diplomatic backing and additional military assistance if they refrain from attacking certain targets in Iran.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
(ISW). The IDF launched a new clearing operation into the Jabalia refugee camp in order to disrupt Hamas reconstitution efforts. The IDF last operated in the area in May 2024 and encountered significant resistance at that time from three Hamas battalions. Now
Five Palestinian militias, including Hamas, defended against Israeli advances into Jabalia on Oct 6. The militias conducted combined attacks using several types of weapons systems, indicating that the militias retain some ability to coordinate operations and access diverse weapons stockpiles.
The Israeli army is beginning to evacuate all the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to Khan Yunis, except for Gaza City. This is happening after the resumption of fighting around/in Jabaliya
Hamas planned to launch a larger barrage of rockets at Israel this morning, and its plans were foiled, the IDF says.
In a statement, the military says it “thwarted an immediate threat, following early preparations and the identification of an intention by the Hamas terror organization to fire at Israel.”
Fighter jets struck several rocket launchers and tunnels across Gaza moments before 6:30 a.m., when Hamas planned to carry the rocket fire, according to the IDF.
Hamas managed to launch just four rockets at the Sufa area at 6:30, three of which were intercepted and the fourth landed in an open area.
Separately, the IDF struck Hamas sites in central Gaza overnight, which it says posed a threat to Israeli forces operating in the Netzarim Corridor area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army announces that its 91st “Galilee” Regional Division began ground operations last night in southern Lebanon, joining two other divisions already operating there against Hezbollah. The division is normally responsible for the entire Lebanon border area.
The evacuation order of the IDF to the residents of southern Lebanon has expanded, no longer only to the Litani river but now to beyond the Awali river!
Five rockets managed to get thru Iron Dome and impact the port city of Haifa overnight. IDF evaluating what went wrong. Only a few injuries reported. Hezbollah also targeted Tel Aviv where debris from intercepted rockets and interceptor caused minor damage.
Massive explosions again overnight as IAF hit large ammo dumps in S Beirut.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The border road between Lebanon and Syria at the Masnaa point is still cut off due to the Israeli raid, but crossing on foot continues.
Israeli raids targeted Syrian army ammunition depots in the areas of Shtai and Shanshar in the Homs countryside, and ammunition depots in the Tal Shanan area and the western side of the city of Salamiyah in the Hama countryside
One of the Israeli air raids targeted the Karim warehouses northwest of the city of Salamiyah in the eastern Hama countryside. These warehouses house tank shells, artillery and missiles.
Israeli raids targeted weapons depots in the village of Al-Shtayyah in the eastern countryside of Homs, where explosions are still occurring.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Official Jordanian source to Al-Arabiya TV: Jordan will not open its airspace to Israeli aircraft to attack Iran.
In response to threats coming from Iran to harm Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran, the President of Azerbaijan Ilam Aliyev threatens tonight: “In the event of hostile action against us, we will rain down fire and burn Iran and its tributaries. Azerbaijan will not tolerate any threat on its people and its economy.”
NOTE - Israel supported the Azeri’s in the conflict with Armenia in recent years, while Iran supported Armenia. Nearly sparked a local war between the two at the time.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Guessing game still as to when Israel will even the score with Iran. It is evident that the US is trying to mess with Israeli plans and timing, but then the US wasn’t on the receiving end of nearly 200 ballistic missiles. biden et al are paranoid that things will escalate. Fact is a weak(ened) response is what will cause things to escalate on Irans side, making them feel strong and froggier. The Israeli counter assault is too important of an action to allow it to be watered down by an Iranian-loving administration (yes, I went there).
So far the Israeli honey badger is set to go it alone if necessary.
Global calls by France to stop arms support to Israel has yet to gain much traction. France was one of the first European countries to succumb to the massive moslem migration. France also has the nasty history of collaborating with forces deliberately attempting genocide against the Jews. WW2 it was the Nazi’s, today it is Iran and radical islam.
To get back to when Israel will strike, I still believe at minimum it will be this week if not in the next few days before Yom Kippur. Israel may well be playing the head game with Iran, just like Iran did to Israel. If Iran thinks Israel is succumbing to US pressures and lowers its guard, then wammo. Works for me.
In Gaza, Israel may be on the beginning of creating an Israeli military controlled zone in N Gaza. Such has been discussed over the months. At this stage, remnant Hamas and affiliated groups are in the process of being encircled and eliminated - while civilians are being directed south in a staged manner. End game developments in Gaza while things pick up in Lebanon.
With the commitment of a third division - the 93d - pressure on Hezbollah frontline forces will increase dramatically. With support from higher command sorely lacking, they are having to rely on the experience of local commanders. Some cases are good results, other times it results in signifiant losses. So far Hezbollah has been unable to reproduce the same successful bait and ambush defenses from the 2008 conflict - in part due to the lack of higher support. As noted in previous report, they are tending to pull back and avoid decisive engagements once Israel has pushed through its front line defense of border villages. May preserve manpower, but they are leaving behind literally tons of arms and ammunition that they would need for a long term fight, which this is building out to be. How many ammo dumps they have further North into Lebanon are not known (except perhaps by Mossad), so they will be eventually seeing shortages as Israel continues to blow up the major dumps to the north and interdicts resupply from Syria.
Iran –
Iran state media says Tehran’s main airport is open again and flights can resume
***
Al Jazeera anchor’s tweet: Iran conducted its first nuclear test in the desert.
CRITICAL OBSERVATION -
Last week, 4.5 near Tehran and a 4.1 near Ravar, were recorded in Iran. Both had a depth estimated at about 6 miles - too deep for an underground nuke test.
***
The terrorist organization Jaish Ul-Adel threatens to attack Iran.
This is a separatist group fighting for independence of Sistan and Baluchistan Province and greater rights for Baluch people in Iran.
Misc of Note –
More Helene rants - from a FEMA video conference call
FEMA Disaster Preparedness Meeting:
“We should focus our efforts on LGBTQIA people… they struggled before the storm”
“FEMA relief is no longer about getting the greatest good for the greatest amount of people…. It’s about disaster equity.”
Black Swans -
Milton has been upgraded to a hurricane and is forecast to strengthen to a major storm before it hit Florida.
Latest report is that Milton is a Cat 4. This is NOT good news for FL as the hurricane is still near Mexico and has the whole warm Gulf to traverse before making landfall.
Ryan Hall Y'all
You tube video
Hurricane Milton Is Going CAT 5...
Just saw now at cat 5. Buckle down
Less than a month to the elections. This month in many ways can be considered to be a threshold period that may define what the left will do after election day to retain power or punish its opponents.
- Nov 5 is the short term game
- Nov 5 - Jan 6 the intermediate game
- Post Jan 6 is the long game.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Now the EPA is creating new rules for meat processors which could put a lot of them out of business, causing job losses and supply chain issues.
Food prices—especially meat and poultry—have skyrocketed in the past four years and could be exacerbated further next year when new EPA rules for meat processors go into effect.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Price Outlook for September reported that beef and veal prices had increased for six straight months, and predicted they will rise 5.2 percent overall in 2024. Poultry prices also rose, although by a smaller percentage, and are expected to rise more before year’s end.
The report traced the rise to factors including pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and the worst inflation since the 1980s.
Next year could see still higher meat and poultry prices at the grocery store, analysts say. That’s because an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal is expected to put some meat processors out of business, resulting in potential job losses and supply chain disruptions.
The EPA announced a proposed rule change governing effluent, or wastewater, limits for meat and poultry processors in January of this year, followed by public comment in the spring.
The agency’s final rule will go into effect in August 2025.
The proposal has met with opposition from dozens of states, industry stakeholders, and policy experts, who fear it will harm the industry, the food supply, and consumers.
The proposed changes are spurred by lawsuits filed by a coalition of 13 environmental organizations. In 2019, the groups challenged the Trump administration under the Clean Water Act for not updating aging water pollution control standards for slaughterhouses and meat processing plants.
https://100percentfedup.com/now-meat-processing-plants-are-targeted-shut-down/
OBSERVATION - Not only does this fit under the Economy category, but I place it here because the EPA has been the surrogate for the WEF goals for quite a time now. They have pushed the bounds of regulation to shut down the fossil fuel industry and now using it regulatory “powers” to shut down the meat industry. Cessation of the animal protein consumption, in favor of bugs and grass, is also a top priority of the WEF globalists ‘environmental’ agenda. Unless the EPA gets gutted and put back into its lane, it will continue to unconstitutionally regulate the country into poverty.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
As warned, some of the pro-islam protests marking Oct 7 turned to vandalism and some violence. Most notably in NYC where window were broken and customers threatened at restraints.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.
Details of two studies documenting how lax and faulty screening practices by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) are leaving the door open for terrorists and other dangerous foreign nationals to enter the U.S. have been completely redacted from a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) inspector general’s (IG) report released to the public.
Last month, on September 30, the DHS Office of Inspector General (OIG) published a report titled:
“CBP, ICE, and TSA Did Not Fully Assess Risks Associated with Releasing Noncitizens without Identification into the United States and Allowing Them to Travel on Domestic Flights (REDACTED)”
“TSA’s methods to screen for individuals who pose a threat would not necessarily prevent these individuals from boarding flights,” the publicly available version of the IG’s analysis concludes, while also criticizing the methods of U.S. Customs and Border Security (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE):
“Because of CBP’s and ICE’s process for inspecting and releasing noncitizens, TSA’s methods to screen for individuals who pose a threat would not necessarily prevent these individuals from boarding flights.
REDACTED TEXT
“According to the TSA Administrator, TSA relies on CBP and ICE officers to collect biographical and biometric information on noncitizens and conduct the requisite background checks to determine if the individual poses a threat to the United States.”
The inspector general’s report cites two studies exposing how TSA’s policies and practices are endangering the public, one from June 2021 and a follow-up dated July 5, 2024.
The findings of both studies are completely redacted
OBSERVATION - Another area where the regime is setting up the American people for violence I’m afraid. This further rubberstamps the fact that TSA is a joke and is not protecting air travel, but facilitating potential terror instances.
***
Forward Observer provides the following summary of the current state terror threats to the US -
“The FBI and DHS have not outlined specific threats, other than a briefing provided to former President Trump’s campaign that Iran is targeting Trump. However, the general threat environment is elevated due to the disrupted southern border, which is likely being used by foreign terrorist organizations to infiltrate the United States. A “lone-wolf” attack on a soft target is the most dangerous course of action, due to fewer avenues for authorities to detect planning and communications. “
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Just days after an International Bird Flu Summit in Washington, DC, we get reports that new cases of bird flu in humans have been reported in California.
John Leake, of the McCullough Foundation, attended the conference and rightfully points out the suspicious/auspicious timing of this new possible pandemic:
The timing of the Summit is auspicious. Like COVID-19, which arrived in the United States during the election year of 2020, the introductory speaker emphasized that the first case of human to human transmission of H5N1 was just detected in Missouri (less than two months before the 2024 presidential election).
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/coincidence-days-after-international-bird-flu-summit-new/
OBSERVATION - The conference was noted for last week, but this is the first results article I’ve seen - the rest buried under the tons of other chaos in the world. So are, the human cases of H5N1 that have occurred over the past year have not been lethal, but the globalists are seeking another plandemic to build upon the restriction they successfully placed on the people during wuhan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Rising concern over the ability of Helene victims - especially in the red portions of TN and NC - being able to vote in November.
Biden / Harris Watch –
harris tried to bolster her image in three interviews over the weekend, including one on an X-rated podcast as well as 60 minutes. General consensus, even though she was generally tossed softball questions - she still managed to massively equivocate and word salad the “answers”.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024
The New Jersey-based utility, which serves over 14 million people across 14 states and 18 military installations, detected the unauthorized activity on Oct. 3, according to an Oct. 7 regulatory filing and a security-related note on the company’s website.
Stacy Mitchell, executive vice president and general counsel at American Water, wrote in the filing that the company discovered that unknown parties had unlawfully breached the company’s computer networks and systems, prompting the utility to shut down some of its systems, launch an investigation, and contact law enforcement.
Mitchell said that American Water does not believe that the cyberattack negatively impacted any of its wastewater or drinking water systems.
“Although the Company is currently unable to predict the full impact of this incident, the Company does not expect the incident will have a material effect on the Company, or its financial condition or results of operations,” Mitchell wrote in the filing.
In April, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned that hackers linked to the Chinese Communist Party had infiltrated America’s critical infrastructure and were waiting for the right moment to strike a “devastating blow.”
OBSERVATION - Threats like this persist and will require enhanced surveillance of operations systems.
Illegal Immigration –
Minimum of 1,525,210 foreign nationals illegally crossed the Southwest U.S. border in fiscal 2024, according to preliminary data The Center Square exclusively obtained from a Border Patrol agent on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal.
The data excludes Office of Field Operations data, gotaway data (those who illegally entered and evaded capture), and northern border apprehension data, meaning the overall number is likely much higher.
It also excludes the 1.3 million inadmissables released into the U.S. through two parole programs created by Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
OBSERVATION - This is a huge mess that the current regime may unleash on America should trump win. By that I mean turning them loose to riot and other mayhem.
North/South Korea –
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un once again reiterated the threat to use nuclear weapons against South Korea and the United States, if attacked, state news agency KCNA reported on Tuesday.
Speaking at a defense university named after him on Monday, Kim also announced plans to accelerate North Korea’s military growth, including its nuclear capabilities.
This comes just days after the North Korean leader vowed to use nuclear weapons against South Korea “without hesitation” if his country’s sovereignty were threatened.
OBSERVATION - World not giving Kim the attention he thinks he should have, so he is rattling his nuclear saber again.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 19 Shahed-type drones, also Russia launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Odesa region was the primary target.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Zoryane Pershe village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Russian forces managed to cross the Donbas canal again and grab a foothold in the Zhovtnevyi neighborhood. Fighting is now ongoing to once again repel Russian forces back over the Donbas Canal which served as a natural barrier for a while now.
Kharkiv Front -
Mandatory evacuation was declared in Izyumske and Bohuslavka villages of Borova community of Kharkiv region
Outlook —
Russia continues to eek out minor gains in the Donbas region, but is still not in any position for any significant, operational breakouts. Much of the forces and equipment they gathered last fall/winter for this extended offensive have been depleted and in many instances ineffective.
Russian continues to rely more and more on glide bombs in support of ground operations. Ukraine has not been able to challenge Russian fighter/bombers who release about 40 Km east of the battle zones. The Patriot raids that caused Russian air to back off earlier this winter/spring are not happening due to Russian missile and drone pressures. These glide bombs are becoming very large and more accurate that artillery. They are also relatively cheap and easy to construct.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah continues to try to up tempo its rocket / missile attacks.
- Israel has now committed 4 divisions to the fight in Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel’s response to Iran’s missile barrage attack at the beginning of October will not be attacking its nuclear facilities but rather targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s military bases and intelligence sites, according to a Monday report from the New York Times citing officials.
The report said while Israel would prefer to have US backing in its response, Biden and other US officials have said that strikes on nuclear facilities would be ineffective and “plunge the region into a full-scale war,” the report said. However, the nuclear facilities as targets may come into consideration should Iran escalate with attacks of their own. Both former and senior Israeli officials have
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/isis-threat/article-823704
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF continues intense operations in N Gaza
Unconfirmed reports that Sinwar recently made contact with the leadership of Hamas in Qatar.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: We have introduced a fourth military division into southern Lebanon. Yesterday (Monday), the 146th Division began limited, localized, targeted operational activities against Hezbollah terror targets and infrastructure in southwestern Lebanon.
The Israeli army says the majority of the 85 rockets fired by Hezbollah at Haifa today were successfully intercepted by air defenses. Some rockets impacted the area, the Israeli army says, causing damage in the Haifa suburbs of Kiryat Yam and Kiryat Motzkin according to police.
Hezbollah also fired rockets towards Tiberias area.
Hezbollah also launched five ballistic missiles towards Tel Aviv that were intercepted or allowed to fall into unoccupied areas.
The Israeli military claimed on Tuesday that it had carried out an airstrike on the Lebanese capital Beirut, killing Hezbollah leader Suheil Hussein Husseini. In a statement, the military described Husseini as “the commander of Hezbollah’s General Staff, a pivotal logistical unit in the party, responsible for budgets.”
***
The link below depicts the current Israeli axis of advance into Lebanon
Map vid.
https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/41953
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
With Israel increasing its forces in S Lebanon, the fuller extent of the leadership losses of Hezbollah should become more apparent. This initial effort will be slow and tedious, as Hezbollah seems to have filled every available house in the border zone with munitions and supplies. Again, as Hezbollah pulls back, it loses more of its supply base, making an extended defense very difficult.
IAF continues search and destroy ops in N Gaza. I think this is the start of a plan to remove all remaining Gazans from the north and convert the area into an Israeli military district. This action would work to protect central and southern Israel from rocket attacks it has faced over the past 20 year.
Speculation continues over when and what targets Israel will hit in Iran. Iran is a target rich environment but those that Israel hits has to cause hurt. Talk of hitting military bases and intel facilities might be showy from a US perspective, from an arab perspective would show a level of weakness of Israel to do real hurt to Iran, such as taking out a significant portion of their oil industry would. Really, military bases are spread over wide areas, so any damage andl casualties would be relatively limited and almost a waste of ammo for the type of long range war Isreal is facing. They have to get the most bang for their buck.
I can see a pull back from trying to take out their nuclear program in this round and saving as a warning for any future attacks. But Israel has to make a statement and make it on targets that will HURT Iran, and this falls back to their oil industry.
At this stage, with Yom Kippur 4 days away the window for an early attack is fast closing. To delay until after the 12th will submit Israel to increased pressure by biden et al to scale the Israeli strikes further back. What DC doesn’t understand is that a weak response will serve to encourage Iran to become more aggressive, not less. A short, very intense fight versus a long and prolonged back and forth that still more likely will drag the region into a major fight.
Iran –
Iran’s foreign minister warned Israel against launching an attack, saying Tuesday any strike on Iranian infrastructure would be met with a stronger retaliation.
Iran attacked Israel last week with a salvo of missiles. Israel has vowed to retaliate.
“We recommend the Zionist regime (Israel) not to test the resolution of the Islamic Republic. If any attack against our country takes place, our response will be more powerful,” Araqchi said in a televised speech.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/iran-israel-retalition/2024/10/08/id/1183218/
Misc of Note –
(FO) Baxter International, the North Carolina-based facility that produces 60% of the U.S. supply of intravenous (IV) fluids, says it doesn’t have a timeline to resume operations following Hurricane Helene. They are, however, working with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to shift production to other plants.
Meanwhile, Florida hospitals are reporting an “ongoing and growing supply disruption,” while the California Hospital Association advised its medical networks to begin conserving. One hospital in the Boston area reported having 40% of normal supply and is now providing Gatorade or water to patients.
OBSERVATON - As noted, recovery could take months and affect tens of thousands needing IVs - which in many instances are nearly all surgical procedures both in house and same day discharges.
Black Swans -
Black swans are all over waiting for their opportunity.
October “surprises” - two major hurricanes so far. A very seismically quiet world and especially seismically hazardous regions of the US. Growing war and possibility of illegals breaking out in essentially war against the US. The US Govt declaring martial law to overturn the election results.
From my humble point of view, the abundance and interelativeness of the threats out there has become staggering. The political ones are bad enough, but has Helene has demonstrated, natural disasters can throw whole regions into life or death chaos- and used to fuel the political engine rather than help victims.
Something to keep in mind.
China wants to control US food processing countries. Starvation is a big Commie trick. Want to watch your children stave to death? No? Well then, play along with commie elites'
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