Less than a month to the elections. This month in many ways can be considered to be a threshold period that may define what the left will do after election day to retain power or punish its opponents.
- Nov 5 is the short term game
- Nov 5 - Jan 6 the intermediate game
- Post Jan 6 is the long game.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Now the EPA is creating new rules for meat processors which could put a lot of them out of business, causing job losses and supply chain issues.
Food prices—especially meat and poultry—have skyrocketed in the past four years and could be exacerbated further next year when new EPA rules for meat processors go into effect.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Price Outlook for September reported that beef and veal prices had increased for six straight months, and predicted they will rise 5.2 percent overall in 2024. Poultry prices also rose, although by a smaller percentage, and are expected to rise more before year’s end.
The report traced the rise to factors including pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and the worst inflation since the 1980s.
Next year could see still higher meat and poultry prices at the grocery store, analysts say. That’s because an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal is expected to put some meat processors out of business, resulting in potential job losses and supply chain disruptions.
The EPA announced a proposed rule change governing effluent, or wastewater, limits for meat and poultry processors in January of this year, followed by public comment in the spring.
The agency’s final rule will go into effect in August 2025.
The proposal has met with opposition from dozens of states, industry stakeholders, and policy experts, who fear it will harm the industry, the food supply, and consumers.
The proposed changes are spurred by lawsuits filed by a coalition of 13 environmental organizations. In 2019, the groups challenged the Trump administration under the Clean Water Act for not updating aging water pollution control standards for slaughterhouses and meat processing plants.
https://100percentfedup.com/now-meat-processing-plants-are-targeted-shut-down/
OBSERVATION - Not only does this fit under the Economy category, but I place it here because the EPA has been the surrogate for the WEF goals for quite a time now. They have pushed the bounds of regulation to shut down the fossil fuel industry and now using it regulatory “powers” to shut down the meat industry. Cessation of the animal protein consumption, in favor of bugs and grass, is also a top priority of the WEF globalists ‘environmental’ agenda. Unless the EPA gets gutted and put back into its lane, it will continue to unconstitutionally regulate the country into poverty.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
As warned, some of the pro-islam protests marking Oct 7 turned to vandalism and some violence. Most notably in NYC where window were broken and customers threatened at restraints.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.
Details of two studies documenting how lax and faulty screening practices by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) are leaving the door open for terrorists and other dangerous foreign nationals to enter the U.S. have been completely redacted from a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) inspector general’s (IG) report released to the public.
Last month, on September 30, the DHS Office of Inspector General (OIG) published a report titled:
“CBP, ICE, and TSA Did Not Fully Assess Risks Associated with Releasing Noncitizens without Identification into the United States and Allowing Them to Travel on Domestic Flights (REDACTED)”
“TSA’s methods to screen for individuals who pose a threat would not necessarily prevent these individuals from boarding flights,” the publicly available version of the IG’s analysis concludes, while also criticizing the methods of U.S. Customs and Border Security (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE):
“Because of CBP’s and ICE’s process for inspecting and releasing noncitizens, TSA’s methods to screen for individuals who pose a threat would not necessarily prevent these individuals from boarding flights.
REDACTED TEXT
“According to the TSA Administrator, TSA relies on CBP and ICE officers to collect biographical and biometric information on noncitizens and conduct the requisite background checks to determine if the individual poses a threat to the United States.”
The inspector general’s report cites two studies exposing how TSA’s policies and practices are endangering the public, one from June 2021 and a follow-up dated July 5, 2024.
The findings of both studies are completely redacted
OBSERVATION - Another area where the regime is setting up the American people for violence I’m afraid. This further rubberstamps the fact that TSA is a joke and is not protecting air travel, but facilitating potential terror instances.
***
Forward Observer provides the following summary of the current state terror threats to the US -
“The FBI and DHS have not outlined specific threats, other than a briefing provided to former President Trump’s campaign that Iran is targeting Trump. However, the general threat environment is elevated due to the disrupted southern border, which is likely being used by foreign terrorist organizations to infiltrate the United States. A “lone-wolf” attack on a soft target is the most dangerous course of action, due to fewer avenues for authorities to detect planning and communications. “
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Just days after an International Bird Flu Summit in Washington, DC, we get reports that new cases of bird flu in humans have been reported in California.
John Leake, of the McCullough Foundation, attended the conference and rightfully points out the suspicious/auspicious timing of this new possible pandemic:
The timing of the Summit is auspicious. Like COVID-19, which arrived in the United States during the election year of 2020, the introductory speaker emphasized that the first case of human to human transmission of H5N1 was just detected in Missouri (less than two months before the 2024 presidential election).
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/coincidence-days-after-international-bird-flu-summit-new/
OBSERVATION - The conference was noted for last week, but this is the first results article I’ve seen - the rest buried under the tons of other chaos in the world. So are, the human cases of H5N1 that have occurred over the past year have not been lethal, but the globalists are seeking another plandemic to build upon the restriction they successfully placed on the people during wuhan.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Rising concern over the ability of Helene victims - especially in the red portions of TN and NC - being able to vote in November.
Biden / Harris Watch –
harris tried to bolster her image in three interviews over the weekend, including one on an X-rated podcast as well as 60 minutes. General consensus, even though she was generally tossed softball questions - she still managed to massively equivocate and word salad the “answers”.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024
The New Jersey-based utility, which serves over 14 million people across 14 states and 18 military installations, detected the unauthorized activity on Oct. 3, according to an Oct. 7 regulatory filing and a security-related note on the company’s website.
Stacy Mitchell, executive vice president and general counsel at American Water, wrote in the filing that the company discovered that unknown parties had unlawfully breached the company’s computer networks and systems, prompting the utility to shut down some of its systems, launch an investigation, and contact law enforcement.
Mitchell said that American Water does not believe that the cyberattack negatively impacted any of its wastewater or drinking water systems.
“Although the Company is currently unable to predict the full impact of this incident, the Company does not expect the incident will have a material effect on the Company, or its financial condition or results of operations,” Mitchell wrote in the filing.
In April, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned that hackers linked to the Chinese Communist Party had infiltrated America’s critical infrastructure and were waiting for the right moment to strike a “devastating blow.”
OBSERVATION - Threats like this persist and will require enhanced surveillance of operations systems.
Illegal Immigration –
Minimum of 1,525,210 foreign nationals illegally crossed the Southwest U.S. border in fiscal 2024, according to preliminary data The Center Square exclusively obtained from a Border Patrol agent on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal.
The data excludes Office of Field Operations data, gotaway data (those who illegally entered and evaded capture), and northern border apprehension data, meaning the overall number is likely much higher.
It also excludes the 1.3 million inadmissables released into the U.S. through two parole programs created by Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
OBSERVATION - This is a huge mess that the current regime may unleash on America should trump win. By that I mean turning them loose to riot and other mayhem.
North/South Korea –
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un once again reiterated the threat to use nuclear weapons against South Korea and the United States, if attacked, state news agency KCNA reported on Tuesday.
Speaking at a defense university named after him on Monday, Kim also announced plans to accelerate North Korea’s military growth, including its nuclear capabilities.
This comes just days after the North Korean leader vowed to use nuclear weapons against South Korea “without hesitation” if his country’s sovereignty were threatened.
OBSERVATION - World not giving Kim the attention he thinks he should have, so he is rattling his nuclear saber again.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 19 Shahed-type drones, also Russia launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Odesa region was the primary target.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Zoryane Pershe village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Russian forces managed to cross the Donbas canal again and grab a foothold in the Zhovtnevyi neighborhood. Fighting is now ongoing to once again repel Russian forces back over the Donbas Canal which served as a natural barrier for a while now.
Kharkiv Front -
Mandatory evacuation was declared in Izyumske and Bohuslavka villages of Borova community of Kharkiv region
Outlook —
Russia continues to eek out minor gains in the Donbas region, but is still not in any position for any significant, operational breakouts. Much of the forces and equipment they gathered last fall/winter for this extended offensive have been depleted and in many instances ineffective.
Russian continues to rely more and more on glide bombs in support of ground operations. Ukraine has not been able to challenge Russian fighter/bombers who release about 40 Km east of the battle zones. The Patriot raids that caused Russian air to back off earlier this winter/spring are not happening due to Russian missile and drone pressures. These glide bombs are becoming very large and more accurate that artillery. They are also relatively cheap and easy to construct.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah continues to try to up tempo its rocket / missile attacks.
- Israel has now committed 4 divisions to the fight in Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel’s response to Iran’s missile barrage attack at the beginning of October will not be attacking its nuclear facilities but rather targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s military bases and intelligence sites, according to a Monday report from the New York Times citing officials.
The report said while Israel would prefer to have US backing in its response, Biden and other US officials have said that strikes on nuclear facilities would be ineffective and “plunge the region into a full-scale war,” the report said. However, the nuclear facilities as targets may come into consideration should Iran escalate with attacks of their own. Both former and senior Israeli officials have
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/isis-threat/article-823704
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF continues intense operations in N Gaza
Unconfirmed reports that Sinwar recently made contact with the leadership of Hamas in Qatar.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: We have introduced a fourth military division into southern Lebanon. Yesterday (Monday), the 146th Division began limited, localized, targeted operational activities against Hezbollah terror targets and infrastructure in southwestern Lebanon.
The Israeli army says the majority of the 85 rockets fired by Hezbollah at Haifa today were successfully intercepted by air defenses. Some rockets impacted the area, the Israeli army says, causing damage in the Haifa suburbs of Kiryat Yam and Kiryat Motzkin according to police.
Hezbollah also fired rockets towards Tiberias area.
Hezbollah also launched five ballistic missiles towards Tel Aviv that were intercepted or allowed to fall into unoccupied areas.
The Israeli military claimed on Tuesday that it had carried out an airstrike on the Lebanese capital Beirut, killing Hezbollah leader Suheil Hussein Husseini. In a statement, the military described Husseini as “the commander of Hezbollah’s General Staff, a pivotal logistical unit in the party, responsible for budgets.”
***
The link below depicts the current Israeli axis of advance into Lebanon
Map vid.
https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/41953
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
With Israel increasing its forces in S Lebanon, the fuller extent of the leadership losses of Hezbollah should become more apparent. This initial effort will be slow and tedious, as Hezbollah seems to have filled every available house in the border zone with munitions and supplies. Again, as Hezbollah pulls back, it loses more of its supply base, making an extended defense very difficult.
IAF continues search and destroy ops in N Gaza. I think this is the start of a plan to remove all remaining Gazans from the north and convert the area into an Israeli military district. This action would work to protect central and southern Israel from rocket attacks it has faced over the past 20 year.
Speculation continues over when and what targets Israel will hit in Iran. Iran is a target rich environment but those that Israel hits has to cause hurt. Talk of hitting military bases and intel facilities might be showy from a US perspective, from an arab perspective would show a level of weakness of Israel to do real hurt to Iran, such as taking out a significant portion of their oil industry would. Really, military bases are spread over wide areas, so any damage andl casualties would be relatively limited and almost a waste of ammo for the type of long range war Isreal is facing. They have to get the most bang for their buck.
I can see a pull back from trying to take out their nuclear program in this round and saving as a warning for any future attacks. But Israel has to make a statement and make it on targets that will HURT Iran, and this falls back to their oil industry.
At this stage, with Yom Kippur 4 days away the window for an early attack is fast closing. To delay until after the 12th will submit Israel to increased pressure by biden et al to scale the Israeli strikes further back. What DC doesn’t understand is that a weak response will serve to encourage Iran to become more aggressive, not less. A short, very intense fight versus a long and prolonged back and forth that still more likely will drag the region into a major fight.
Iran –
Iran’s foreign minister warned Israel against launching an attack, saying Tuesday any strike on Iranian infrastructure would be met with a stronger retaliation.
Iran attacked Israel last week with a salvo of missiles. Israel has vowed to retaliate.
“We recommend the Zionist regime (Israel) not to test the resolution of the Islamic Republic. If any attack against our country takes place, our response will be more powerful,” Araqchi said in a televised speech.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/iran-israel-retalition/2024/10/08/id/1183218/
Misc of Note –
(FO) Baxter International, the North Carolina-based facility that produces 60% of the U.S. supply of intravenous (IV) fluids, says it doesn’t have a timeline to resume operations following Hurricane Helene. They are, however, working with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to shift production to other plants.
Meanwhile, Florida hospitals are reporting an “ongoing and growing supply disruption,” while the California Hospital Association advised its medical networks to begin conserving. One hospital in the Boston area reported having 40% of normal supply and is now providing Gatorade or water to patients.
OBSERVATON - As noted, recovery could take months and affect tens of thousands needing IVs - which in many instances are nearly all surgical procedures both in house and same day discharges.
Black Swans -
Black swans are all over waiting for their opportunity.
October “surprises” - two major hurricanes so far. A very seismically quiet world and especially seismically hazardous regions of the US. Growing war and possibility of illegals breaking out in essentially war against the US. The US Govt declaring martial law to overturn the election results.
From my humble point of view, the abundance and interelativeness of the threats out there has become staggering. The political ones are bad enough, but has Helene has demonstrated, natural disasters can throw whole regions into life or death chaos- and used to fuel the political engine rather than help victims.
Something to keep in mind.
China wants to control US food processing countries. Starvation is a big Commie trick. Want to watch your children stave to death? No? Well then, play along with commie elites'
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024
The FBI arrested an Afghan man who it says was influenced by the Islamic State to plan an Election Day attack that would have targeted large crowds in the US, AP reported Tuesday.
Agents arrested Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27, of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, after an investigation that discovered the man had been stockpiling automatic weapons and had been in the process of liquidating his family’s assets. After his arrest he confessed to investigators that he was planning an attack that would hit large crowds. Tawhedi disclosed he has a juvenile co-conspirator and that they both expected to die as Islamic martyrs. He had bought a one-way ticket for his wife and child to travel back to Afghanistan. Tawhedi, who entered the United States in 2021 on a special immigrant visa, was charged with conspiring and attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State group.
OBSERVATION - How many more like him are out there? Literally hundreds of thousands.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
More than two dozen Navy ships — including three that are currently in service — received faulty welds at the Huntington Ingalls Industries shipyard in Newport News, Virginia, the service’s top civilian leader told lawmakers last week.
In a letter to Congress dated Oct. 3, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro said that poor welds were found on the aircraft carrier USS George Washington as well as the attack submarines USS Hyman G. Rickover and USS New Jersey. In addition, the welding issues were identified on 23 more ships — a mix of new construction, ships in maintenance and aircraft carriers undergoing refueling.
OBSERVATION - this is growing to be a scandal of great concern. Shows a gross lack of QA/QC by both the contractor as well as the Navy. I hope the contractor maintained records on who worked on what weld areas so the culprit(s) can be arrested - but don’t hold your breath.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Never thought I’d see democrats rallying porn stars to support their candidate.
Biden / Harris Watch –
CBS edited out Kamala’s incoherent response from a “60 Minutes” interview and replaced it with what now appears to be a response to an entirely different question
These are the same people railing about misinformation. Who needs AI when CBS will creatively edit an interview in this manner.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration said it will not renew two-year permits for immigrants from Cuba, Venezuela, Haiti, and Nicaragua who entered the U.S. through immigration parole flights. A Biden official familiar with the program said it is likely only a small number of the 30,000 entering the U.S. each month are at risk of losing their immigration parole status.
OBSERVATION - I don’t trust their numbers, and neither should you.
Russia -
Russia demands Ukraine withdraw its troops from four partially occupied regions in Ukraine and abandon plans to join NATO, said FM Lavrov in an interview with Newsweek. He outlined conditions including Ukraine’s demilitarization, neutrality, and the recognition of territorial changes.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 21 of 22 Shahed-type drones overnight
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Action by Russia continue, but no significant changes noted. There are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces retaking some towns in the Kursk region.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces are pressing Ukraine defenses south of the town.
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Heavy fighting continues around Chasiv Yar.
Crimean front —
Another fuel reservoir exploded at the oil depot in Feodosiya, fire has been uncontrollable since Ukraine drone strikes from a few days ago.
Russian Territory –
Explosions at a GRAU military arsenal in Karachev of Bryansk region reported overnight.
Outlook —
The daily slog along the Donbas front continues with Russia continuing to claw out small, localized gains at heavy losses.
Russian missile blitz still over due.
Europe / NATO General –
Lithuania has fortified another bridge over the Nemunas River on the route from the Kaliningrad. Fortifications are progressing as planned, with some bridges set to be demolished.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- IAF targeted Hezbollah and possibly Iranian leadership in Damascus strike.
- Galant’s trip to the US has been postponed/cancelled by Netanyahu.
- US complaining of being left in the dark over Israeli plans and timing.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli Air Force struck over 230 targets over the past day, in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon, the military says. According to the Israeli army, the targets included 185 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon, and some 45 Hamas sites in Gaza, including sites where cells of operatives were cells of operatives were gathered, observation posts, rocket launchers, and weapon depots. The IDF says troops continue to battle Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon, and during the past day several gunmen were killed in close-quarters combat and in airstrikes.
***
Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu refuses to approve Defense Minister Yoav Galant’s trip to Washington planned for tonight until a he gets a phone call with President Biden and until the Israeli cabinet approves the response to Iran’s missile attack, according to a source with knowledge of the details
***
US President Joe Biden is scheduled to hold a critical phone call on Wednesday morning with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss Israel’s plans to strike Iran in retaliation for its ballistic missile attack on Israel last week, three US officials told Axios on Tuesday.
This conversation would mark the first contact between Biden and Netanyahu in two months.
On Tuesday night, Netanyahu met for hours with senior ministers and the heads of Israel’s military and intelligence agencies to decide the scope and timing of their planned strikes on Iran, two Israeli officials told Axios.
These officials indicated that Israel’s response will be substantial, likely involving a mix of air strikes on military targets in Iran as well as covert operations. Israel has also considered strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, a move Biden has signaled he would oppose.
A Netanyahu aide told Axios that once a decision is made, Netanyahu would brief Biden.
“We want to use the call to try and shape the limitations of the Israeli retaliation,” a US official told Axios.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/397329
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF continued clearing operations in Jabalia refugee camp, Gaza City, on October 8 after launching a new operation there to disrupt Hamas reconstitution efforts.
The IDF Air Force also struck 70 unspecified targets in the Gaza Strip on October 8.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF continues to hammer Hezbollah targets in S Beirut, multiple ammo storage facilities hit.
IDF ground forces continue to press into S Lebanon.
Hezbollah fired about 20 rockets at Kiryat Shmona this morning. Another Iron Dome glitch allowed some rockets to penetrate resulting in several deaths
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Al Hadath: An official in Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 was targeted in an airstrike in the Mezzeh neighborhood of Damascus, Syria. Unit 4400 is responsible for transferring weapons from Iran and its proxies to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Iranian embassy in Damascus denies the presence of Iranians in the building targeted by the Israeli raid in the Mazzeh neighborhood
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iran-backed militias have targeted the Conoco military base in eastern Deir ez-Zur сountryside
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel maintains the momentum and initiative in the fight against both Hamas and Hezbollah. What appears to be slow progress in Lebanon is due to the need to deal with heavily fortified Hezbollah positions set up in border towns. Once this defensive line has been breached, movement should go faster.
Amir Tsefarti makes the following observation on the potential financial hit to Hezbollah forces and supporters on his Telegraph channel -
“According to the sources in Lebanon, the one-ton penetrating bombs thrown at Hezbollah’s underground headquarters caused heavy damage to the organization’s vaults full of dollars. In Lebanon, there are different estimates regarding the amounts that Hezbollah lost, although of course there is no exact figure.
“This is bad news for the thousands of fighters, employees, managers and loyalists in the organization’s institutions, who, along with the thousands of families of the dead, wounded and disabled, are waiting for monthly salaries and assistance from it. In addition to the budgets allocated to dozens of health, education, social and media institutions affiliated with it. Even if part of the treasury [of the organization] or all of it has survived until now, questions arise regarding Hezbollah’s ability to continue to guarantee its financial obligations, due to the costs of displacement and war, especially if the campaign is prolonged or expanded,” one of the sources was quoted as saying”
Cash payments become hard to pay if your cash is all burned up and your line of credit isn’t looking good.
Some indicators/rumors now that Israel is going to wait until after Yom Kippur to strike at Iran. At this date, delay of a few more days to get the holy day behind it may ease a lot of logistical and social aspects of the attack. This will be Israels largest attack against Iran ever.
Big rumblings coming out of DC and the pentagon over the OPSEC of Israel towards US officials. One unconfirmed report was how dumbfounded the govt was when informed of the strike that took out Nassaralla. Israel rightly so doesn’t trust the US govt with its warplans. Too many leaks in the past and too many sympathetic, pro-islamic radical elements therein. Just how much Netanyahu will reveal to biden if their phone call happens is speculation, but I suspect no significant information will be given to biden.
The Gallant trip at the very least was an effort by the US to split him from Netanyahu’s warplans and decision making. The goal being forcing Israel to conform to US desires in the region over fears of an escalating regional conflict. “We want to use the call to try and shape the limitations of the Israeli retaliation,” from above. Of course that US official isn’t running to bomb shelters nearly every day either.
This is war- either go big or go home. US deterrence has devolved into a namby pamby game of insignificant strikes that do very little (Rush would say - “Symbolism over substance”) Arab culture only respect strength, something we’ve failed to realize going as far back as the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. WW2 wasn’t won on this doctrine of ‘proportionality” and fear of escalating the war - the allies bombed the living daylights out of Germany and Japan, forcing their surrender.
Netanyahu’s forcing biden to respond will put the US on record. I doubt that he is going to leave honey badger mode for these faux concerns by the US. What he will say is yet to be seen, but if trends continue, it will be sharp and too the point. The US has lost regional credibility in efforts against Iran due to the billions of dollars of ‘raised’ (not lifted - snark) sanctions, allowing billions to flow into the country. An Israeli strike may also just expose that scam.
So my look at the tea leaves has the Iranian strike shifting to after Yom Kippur (poss as early as Oct 13). I expect that Israel will stick to massive targeting of oil sites as well as the hidy holes of the mullahs, in addition to key military sites. There is a fair possibility that Israel may avoid direct attacks on nuclear sites. I’d say if they do, that they target the ADA units surrounding those sites. Russia’s inventory of S300/S400/S500 is tremendously stretched due to the Ukraine war and Iran will be hard pressed to replace any losses. This would make those nuke facilities even more vulnerable to any necessary follow on stakes.
Iran –
(ISW). US Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns said on October 7 that Iran could produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in around a week.
Burns also stated that the US has observed no evidence that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ordered the regime to build a nuclear weapon.
Burns added that the United States and its partners should be able to detect “relatively early on” if Iran begins building a nuclear weapon.
OBSERVATION - The potential to rapidly produce the 90%+ enriched uranium necessary to fuel a nuclear bomb has been out there for quite a while. It is all the other components necessary to generate a fission reaction that are critical.
AFA US intelligence claims to be able to detect the construction of a nuclear weapon “early on” is what I am very skeptical about.
Big question is just how much and type of assistance has Iran received from N Korea and Russia.
Misc of Note –
(FO) The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the structure of Hurricane Milton changed significantly overnight, and Hurricane Milton “has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
The NHC said Hurricane Milton is expected to grow in size as it approaches Florida, and “this is an extremely life-threatening situation.”
“As bad as Helene was, it will not really come close to the amount of spending you will see with this storm” if Hurricane Milton makes landfall in the Tampa, FL metro area, former Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Craig Fugate said.
OBSERVATION - Another old prepper adage goes ‘the time for prepping is down when the disaster is upon you’ It will be literally months before Florida is back in business after these two hurricane strikes.
But Americans across the country are blissfully ignorant of dangers posed by nature on their areas. Please, do a study of your home areas - discern if you face flooding, fire, other storm, earthquake etc. dangers and take steps to prepare NOW. Nature gives no mulligans.