Threat Matrix 2024

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.

Oh boy, global chaos took it to a new level yesterday and overnight.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024

The Iranian attack on Israel may generate pro-hamas/Hezbollah demonstrations over the next few days. Likely to be relatively tame. However, if Israel follows its promise to nail Iran, protests could become more violent - particularly in the standard urban strongholds of these and other Antifa related groups.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

President Joe Biden’s administration heaped pressure on U.S. port employers to raise their offer to secure a labor deal with dockworkers on strike for a second day Wednesday, choking half the country’s ocean shipping.

USMX had offered the union a 50% wage hike, but the ILA’s leader, Harold Daggett said the union is pushing for more (79%), including a $5 per hour raise for each year of the new six-year contract and an end to port automation projects that threaten union jobs.

OBSERVATION - Shortage fears have already hit parts of the east coast with some Costcos reported being out of toilet paper (our new disaster metric). Biden is unwilling to interject further to invoke Taff to force an 80 day cooling off period. People wailed that Trump/republicans wanted a govt shut down, here biden and democrats want a far more devastating shutdown that could potentially hamstring the economy to the tune of over $5 billion per day.

***
In commenting on the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s latest report on the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy, Timothy Fiore, the chairman of the committee responsible for the report issued on Tuesday, said it all:
- U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in September, and at the same rate compared to last month.
- Demand continues to be weak, output declined….
- New Orders Index remain[ed] in contraction territory….
- New Export Orders Index contract[ed] at a faster rate….
- Backlog of Orders Index stay[ed] in strong contraction territory….
- Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) continued in contraction….
- Employment shrunk at a faster rate.

ISM’s factory index “has been in contraction territory for 22 of the past 23 months.”

https://thenewamerican.com/us/economy/u-s-manufacturing-shrinks-for-sixth-month-in-a-row/

OBSERVATION - Information not being spread to the public because the ‘narrative’ is that manufacturing sector is doing well and booming.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

See US naval vessels engaging Iranian missiles under Israel below.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****

***

Even liberal media had to concede the Vance trounced Walz, was far more poised and unrufflable and had a better grasp on policy and reality.

It was so bad for Walz, that ABC moderators violated their agreement not to ‘fact check’ candidates as the ABC News moderators “fact-checked” Trump (and Trump alone) during his debate with Harris. And yet when it came to the famous Haitian immigrants of Springfield, Ohio, Brennan chimed in to chide Vance’s reference to the illegal immigration facilitated by the Biden/Harris administration: “Just to clarify for our viewers, Springfield, Ohio does have a large number of Haitian migrants who have legal status.”

Vance responded: “The rules were that you guys weren’t going to fact check, and since you’re fact checking me, I think it’s important to say what’s actually going on.” Vance sought to seize the opportunity to explicate the new meaning of legal status under the regime of Biden and Harris: “So there’s an application called the CBP One app, where you can go on as an illegal migrant, apply for asylum or apply for parole, and be granted legal status at the wave of a Kamala Harris open border wand.” CBS then cut Vance’s microphone.

Problem for Brennan was that Vance showed up with the receipts and they couldn’t handle it. The cutting off of his mike was a statement of censorship and unwillingness to let a truth be made know.

In its editorial this morning, the New York Post observes that when Walz “told the howler that ‘illegal border crossings are down compared to when Donald Trump left office,’ which is not even close to true, no one let out of a peep. Some ‘facts’ are too good to check.”

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/10/after-last-night-62.php

Many say that the VP debates really don’t move the needle much. This may well be a different case. The media has so far been covering for harris and obfuscating her policies, and the public has a desire to know what’s she offering. As her VP, Walz has to be prepared to define and defend those policies. Again, by all counts he failed epically, even with moderator help.

***
Restoration of electrical power in areas hit by Helene may be long delayed due to the fact that the administration shipped a substantial amount of the national reserve of power transformers to Ukraine, making virtually none available for disasters like this. Transformers, particularly the large ones, take a long time to build and there are very few plants that do so. Many factories are staged overseas.

Biden / Harris Watch –

biden receiving flack for his seemingly being out of the loop in the current escalation between Israel and Iran.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair. Increasing chances of showers towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 32 Shaheds into Ukraine overnight. Air defense shot down 11, 4 Shaheds returned to Russia, and another 10 were downed as a result of electronic warfare.

Ukrainian defense forces have withdrawn from Vuhledar, - Khortytsa operative command

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Verkhnokamyanske in Donetsk region of Ukraine

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Russian has renewed counter attacks on Ukrainian forces. Ukraine conducted attacks in the western portion of the salient.

Outlook —

Russian ground forces are making painfully small gains along the Donbas region. There are continued attempts to muster larger size assault forces equipped with available tanks and armor, but these have met with disastrous results. The drivers and leaders are essentially untrained and Ukraine takes quick advantage of that by hitting lead elements, causing follow on vehicles to suddenly cluster and then scramble to retreat as the drones and artillery zoom in.

Kursk is seemingly becoming active again by both Russia and Ukraine.

I don’t see much change in the situation on the ground. The bigger show is the deep war of drones and missiles. Ukraine may soon not need US ATACMS or British Storm Shadow cruise missiles as it appears that they have developed their own deep strike missiles.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Iran launched a large attack using 181 ballistic missiles, some of which managed to penetrate Israeli missile defenses

- Two terrorists killed 7 at a light rail station in Jerusalem.

- Israel expanding its movement into S Lebanon

——— GENERAL ——————————-

October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,

(ISW). Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile attack that targeted Israel from Iranian territory on October 1. Iran likely intended to inflict significant damage on Israel by oversaturating Israeli air defenses, particularly in central Israel.

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff-affiliated media claimed that Iran targeted three Israeli airbases and geolocated footage also showed Iranian ballistic missiles impacting at least three other locations. Iran fired tens of missiles on Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor. All were intercepted (source: N12)

The attack killed one Palestinian in the West Bank & injured two Israelis in Tel Aviv.

The IDF reported that Israel and its allies intercepted the “majority” of the Iranian ballistic missiles launched at Israel.

NOTE - very little information on the number of missiles that got thru the missile defense umbrella. From video on social media observing the airfields and Tel Aviv and others, a rough guess on my part is that 10-15% of the missiles found their target. Post strike OSINT BDA hampered overnight by clouds obscuring much of Israel from commercial satellite imagery passes. It is unlikely Israel will provide any detailed info in order to maintain OPSEC and deny Iran valuable targeting data.

***
Netanyahu: “Iran made a big mistake tonight - and it will pay for it. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. Sinwar and Def did not understand this, Nasrallah and Mohsen did not understand this, and there are probably those in Tehran who do not understand this. They will understand We will stand by the rule we have established: whoever attacks us - we will attack him”

Israel last week sent messages to Iran saying that if Tehran attacked, Israel would retaliate against Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities — WSJ

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, claimed there’d be “severe consequences for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case.”
NOTE - The use of “we” in the statement, implying US participation to some extent.

***
The IDF summarizes the Iranian attack:
About 180 missiles were launched from Iran in several volleys at 7:31PM, a large and effective number of interceptions were carried out, and there are a few hits in the center and south. NOTE - early reports were higher numbers - fog of war

The IDF clarifies: there is no damage to the air force’s competence, the planes or the defense systems. The Air Force will continue to attack tonight in the Middle East in a powerful way.

IDF: Iran is pushing the Middle East to escalate, tonight’s event will have consequences. We will do everything necessary to protect the security of the citizens of Israel.

***
The Arleigh Burke guided-missile destroyers USS Bulkeley and USS Cole fired roughly a dozen interceptors at Iranian ballistic missiles launched towards Israel tonight, per the Pentagon. They were operating in the eastern Mediterranean Sea .

***
Israel’s gas platform in the Mediterranean Sea may have been hit.

***
At least eight people are dead and as many as a dozen wounded after two gunman opened fire on Israeli citizens on a light rail train in Tel Aviv during a missile attack from Iran. The gunmen were ‘neutralized’ on the scene by a bystander.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

A fight developed when and estimated force of 80 Terrorists some armed tried to storm the Natzer corridor in central Gaza. IDF dealt with the group.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Overnight Israel continued the massive air campaign. Recent Israeli airstrikes in the southern suburb of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold known as Dahiyeh, targeted weapon manufacturing sites, the Israeli army says. The military had warned civilians to flee from the sites ahead of the strikes

The IDF estimates: the ground maneuver in southern Lebanon will last a few weeks - in order to complete the task of destroying and neutralizing Radwan infrastructure in the villages

40 rockets were fired from Lebanon at the city of Safed, northern Israel, in addition to other rockets fired overnight.

Resistance by Hezbollah forces have increased along the border via numerous ambushes of Israeli forces.

The Israeli army says another division is being deployed to southern Lebanon for ground operations against Hezbollah. The 36th Division is now joining the 98th Division, which had entered Lebanon on Monday night

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian army sources: Israeli air defenses shot down dozens of Iranian missiles flying over southern Syria

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Jordan allowed American forces to use its airspace to shoot down Iranian missiles — NBC quoting an American official and a Jordanian official

Spanish Ministry of Defense: We will send two military planes to Lebanon to evacuate our citizens

Cyprus has fully activated a mechanism to allow third-country nationals evacuating the Middle East safe passage through the island as the crisis in the region worsens, its government spokesperson said

Statement by the French Presidency: Macron called on Israel to end its military operations in Lebanon as soon as possible

Elysee: Macron condemns in the strongest terms Iran’s attacks on Israel

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

I was surprised that Iran choose to launch this long awaited attack. I noted yesterday that “Iran may feel ‘forced’ into an April style attack, but once again, in doing so, they risk their nuclear and oil facilities.’

Red flags were there
- US issued more warnings of an imminent attack. However, they’ve been issuing similar for the past couple months and IMHO reached the boy crying wolf stage.
- Israel canceled events at the Western Wall.
- Multiple warnings by Israel that any attack would open up a can of hurt on Iran.

Best report is that Iran launched 181 missiles. In comparison, the attack in April: 300 launches from Yemen, Iran, Iraq and Lebanon. Of that, about 100 ballistic missiles and 170 unmanned aerial vehicles. 99 percent of the targets were successfully intercepted! This attack saw no drones/cruise missiles or substantial fire from Iraq, Yemen or even Lebanon.

No real assessment on how many made it thru the defenses. As I noted above, rough guesstimate from videos is 10-15%. Israel will likely be tight lipped if any of the declared targets were hit and what damages were sustained. Claims of airfield strikes don’t seem to have affected the tempo of attacks on Hezbollah targets. It appears that the increase in the success was based in part to missile not self destructing over Iran/Iraq as in April. Possibly due to Iran using its newer models and not the older stock.

This attack has reset the whole regional calculations on the extent of combat. Israel has been given the justification to do what it has been wanting to do for a long time - nail the Iranian nuclear program and cripple it economically. Israel may well add an attempt to take out the mullahs to that wish list.

Israel likely is just polishing off its target list but high on that list is probably Kargh Island, the oil port that 95% of all exported oil passes thru. Add refineries and other processing sites and the Iranian economy takes a major hit.

There are dozens of sites scattered across Iran engaged in various stages and components of the development of a nuclear weapon. Many are ‘hardened’ by placement underground other not so much. However, even hardened sites are not invulnerable, entrance portals and above ground power sites can be hit and that damage can cascade inside.

Systems available to Israel will likely be heavily weighted to cruise and ballistic missiles. I don’t know if they have the capability to refuel the F35s for a stealth attack on facilities in the interior of Iran. They may be used in the Persian Gulf to hit oil targets, and perhaps a capital ship or two. I do not see Israel resorting to nukes at this stage, too great a risk at global pushback and potentially direct Russian involvement (coming to the aid of its new ally)

Sullivan’s use of the “we” in his statement infers that the US may directly participate with Israel as part of a retaliatory counter strike. Interesting position and one that could massively hurt Iran even more. Remember, Arab world recognizes strength and Iran went a few steps to regain their honor. A massive counterstrike could put them back to square one.

Risk of another Iranian missile assault would remain high. They have a lot of missiles still in storage and though Israel may target some of those stockpiles, it would be difficult for Israel to mount an ongoing assault to take them out like they have been able to do with Hezbollah. Iran may launch in a preemptive manner to disrupt the Israeli strike or sometime after the strike.

So how’s this going to play out? My best estimate is that Israel (potentially with US involvement) will hit and hit hard by the end of the week. If they attack on Oct 7 it would be very symbolic to all in the region, and 5 days is a good period to be used by Israel to get all the ‘I’s dotted an the ’t’s crossed for the attack. I expect that Israel will follow on with their word to hit oil and nuclear development sites, with a potential attempt to nail the mullah’s in their hidey holes.

Will it escalate? Will the US put munitions on Iran and widen the scope of the conflict. Will Iran attempt another missile strike? We won’t know much until after the smoke clears from the counter strike.

***
Before I forget, action in S Lebanon. Israel moving more forces into Lebanon. Hezbollah has claimed successfully driving Israeli forces back, but Hama made similar claims during the initial incursions in Gaza. As I said, these are reconnaissance in force operations - partly to identify stronghold for elimination when the hard core ground operation kicks off. Ground ops will grow by the weekend and Hezbollah will have their hands full. Israel has been preparing for this rematch for decades now. Exchanges at a strategic level with Iran will have little effect on this effort.

Iran –

Iranian government spokeswoman: Operation True Promise 2 was in defense of our national interests within the framework of international laws

Iranian government spokeswoman: We committed to self-restraint for two months in the hope of achieving a ceasefire in Gaza

The Revolutionary Guards in an official announcement: We attacked in the heart of the occupied territories in response to the elimination of Nasrallah and Abbas Nilproshan. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claiming to use the newly developed Fattah-1 (allegedly a hypersonic missile).

Iran warned Israel and the United States against any reaction to its massive missile strike against the Jewish State on Tuesday night.
“Should the Zionist regime dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue,” Iran’s mission to the United Nations wrote in a post on X.

Iranian sources state that the mullahs have been moved to a secure location

State TV: Iranian president leaves Tehran for Qatar on scheduled visit

Videos on social media show everyday Iranians in a near panic as long lines queued up at gasoline stations and ATM machines in anticipation of an economy destroying attack by Israel.

Misc of Note –

I spent a lot of space dealing with the Iranian attack on Israel and impending actions. We also face threats of supply disruptions by rabid union on the east coast — right when the region is trying to recover from Helene. And a presidential race that is ratcheting up the heat.

Keep your ears to the ground.

Oh boy, global chaos took it to a new level yesterday and overnight.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024

Sales of firearms have inched higher since Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, a sign that some voters are concerned that she will make good on her plans to ban guns if elected president.

***
I don’t make these observations lightly but the evidence points to one simple, devastating conclusion - the harris/biden deep state is fully at war against the citizens of the US and events of the past week(s) make it very clear

- Hurricane Helene. All the bravado by the WH over its response is just that - empty words Anyone following social media knows full well that FEMA is threatening arrest of citizens independently assisting victims, confiscating supplies being brought in, refusing to mobilize assets needed to reach the vast areas cut off because of road destruction (Ft Liberty aka Bragg, is only a few hours away). Now, FEMA claims to not have money for recovery - after diverting nearly a billion dollars for illegals to use, and only offering $750 to disaster victims.

- biden shipped off a vast amount of our strategic reserve of transformers to Ukraine, leaving virtually nothing for the necessary work to restore power to Helene hit areas, meaning areas of the country will be without power for MONTHS.

- The FCC’s illegal revocation of r SpaceX Starlink award, it would probably have saved lives in North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina. A total of over 92K terminals. Musk is hustling to get hundreds of terminals deployed on his own penny.

- Administration support of the dockworkers strike. Union president openly states his goal is to cripple the economy if he doesn’t get his 79% wage increase (they already rejected a 50% offer). The WH is not getting involved even though it is conservatively thought that the economy will be hit with 5 BILLION dollars lost per day .

Now why am I placing this under CW2? Basically to document the efforts of the deep state communists working even harder to create as much chaos before the elections as possible - Cloward-Piven strategy in action. The gross disregard is appalling and especially the fact that the FEMA elements are doing more to prevent citizens from helping than they are doing to help citizens. Pause for a moment and chew on that. Trends are that the regime is ramping up attacks on America along this trend. It will not end well.

I just can’t seem to let go of the malfeasance of FEMA / DHS directed towards the victims of Helene. There are many more reports than what I listed. Never would I have though the govt would go this far to prevent help from reaching victims. It may reach a point where citizens responding to help the victims may resort to armed operations and increase potential confrontations it govt authorities. That is how far our country has fallen and our govt is against us.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.

(FO) The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said the terrorism threat environment in the Homeland is expected to remain high over the coming year, including potential violent extremist responses to domestic sociopolitical developments and international incidents.

According to the report, DHS assesses domestic and foreign adversaries will continue to target critical infrastructure through cyber and physical attacks, and violent extremists will continue to call for physical attacks on critical infrastructure.

DHS also assesses foreign adversaries including China will continue non-market policies and practices, economic espionage, and intellectual property theft to undercut U.S. competitiveness.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris sided Wednesday with dockworkers who launched a massive strike this week that threatens to cripple the economy.
“This strike is about fairness,” Harris said. “Foreign-owned shipping companies have made record profits and executive compensation has grown. The Longshoremen, who play a vital role transporting essential goods across America, deserve a fair share of these record profits.”

https://www.dailywire.com/news/kamala-endorses-dockworkers-strike-that-union-boss-boasted-would-cripple-the-economy

OBSERVATION - 79% wage increase and holding the economy hostage is “fair share”??? This union has openly declared that they will willingly crash the economy.

RELATED - Shortly before President Joe Biden signed the bipartisan infrastructure bill, his White House showcased $17 billion in funding set aside for upgrades in U.S. port infrastructure for strengthening supply chains and boosting competitiveness. Now, he is now refusing to deal with a union standing in the way of efficiency-boosting automation technology where the U.S. lags behind.

https://justthenews.com/nation/economy/biden-pledged-infrastructure-bill-would-upgrade-ports-even-he-caters-union-blocking

OBSERVATION - This strike now appears to be pre - planned with the WH. A deliberate strike at a key component of the economy that will sabotage any recovery.

MORE RELATED - Spokesperson at FedEx announced the company is implementing ‘contingency operations’ to handle the expected surge in demand for shipping with the ongoing dockworkers strike.

***
U.S. car sales remain stuck below pre-pandemic levels amid a struggling auto market, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Higher borrowing costs and increased prices on new vehicles are two key factors steering consumers away from buying, according to the WSJ. Many customers have looked to lease cars to avoid out-of-pocket costs and have turned to purchasing smaller and more affordable vehicle models.

https://dailycaller.com/2024/10/01/us-auto-sales-remain-stuck-below-pandemic-levels/

OBSERVATION - Car sales are one of many indicators of the health of the economy. Recent reports have the govt affiliated entities touting the so called ‘robust and growing’ economy. Here is where the rubber meets the road (pun intended) that all is NOT well with the overall economy.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***
Leftist spinmeisters are going nutz trying to get something to stick on Vance from the debate Even making snarky comments about his beard. I smell the odor of desperation.

***
See rant under CW2 and politics in disaster recovery

Biden / Harris Watch –

Bush caught flack for taking 3 days before surveying Katrina damage. biden spent 7 days on the beach before seeing some of Helene damage.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024

Bank of America is experiencing a nationwide outage that is impacting tens of thousands users.
Downdetector, a site that monitors online issues, shows problems struck around 1pm ET, as users reported online and mobile banking and ATM services are down.
Some Bank of American customers have also reported their accounts are showing an empty balance.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13917611/Bank-America-suffers-outage-tens-thousands-users-report-struggling-cash-ATM-check-online-accounts.html

OBSERVATION - No word on if this was an internal ‘glitch’ or the results of an actual cyber attack of some sort. If the latter, then we better pucker up for more of the same.

Russia -

Economic Impact –

Russian state spending on national defence will increase by 23% in 2025 to 13.5 trillion roubles ($145.32 billion) from 10.8 trillion roubles in 2024, state budget documents published on Monday showed

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair. Increasing chances of showers towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Another large Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 105 Shaheds launched, 78 were shot down. In addition, 23 Shaheds were lost in Ukraine, likely downed by electronic warfare and 1 flew back to Belarus.
With this attack, the total number of strike drones launched by Russia in last 30 days reached record 1439.

Ukrainian drones reportedly hit Russian Borisoglebsk airfield, targeting KAB bomb warehouses, Su-35/34 aircraft parkings, and fuel storages. Explosions and fires were reported overnight by locals, with FIRMS data showing several fire spots. Inflicted damage is still being assessed. Russian ADA responded to other drones across the region as well.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Russian has renewed counter attacks on Ukrainian forces. Ukraine conducted attacks in the western portion of the salient.

Outlook —

The Ukraine war continues to be a meat grinder, more so for Russia than Ukraine so far. The biggest action continues to be the ‘deep’ war of drones and missiles, with the drone usage by both sides increasing daily.

Russia’s use of its cruise and ballistic missiles continue to be at a lull. Many thinking that the substantially increased drone attacks are being used to deplete ADA assets/munitions, setting Ukraine up for another series of large attacks.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel takes out more terrorist leaders

- Fighting grows on the S Lebanon border

- Israel preps for its counterstrike while Iran threatens further attacks if Israel does strike.

- Political moves by the US and G7 to limit Israel’s response and restore sanctions on Iran from the trump era that biden took down.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

October 12, Yom Kippur

Follow-up on the Iranian missile strike. -

Clearing skies has permitted damage assessment of the Iranian missile attack.
At one key target satellite images of an aircraft hangar at the Navatim Israeli Air Force base taken after a massive barrage of Iranian missiles appear to show a large hole in the roof. However, other impact sites did little to no damage. Novatim was the hardest hit by Iranian missiles with as many as 10-20 impacts.

Iranian independent channels reported that during the strike against Israel, one of missiles fired by IRGC hit Najaf Abad in Isfahan, crashing in a nearby mountain

Local sources reported, based in Isfahan, that at least 5 misfires took place in Isfahan during operation “True Promise 2”. Reportedly 5 Iranians died in one of the misfires

***
WH: Today, President Biden joined a call with the G7 to discuss Iran’s unacceptable attack against Israel and to coordinate on a response to this attack, including new sanctions. President Biden and the G7 unequivocally condemned Iran’s attack against Israel. Some of these sanctions were initially emplaced by Trump but removed by biden.

Biden said on Wednesday that he does not support strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites in response to its missile attack against Israel.
“We’ll be discussing with the Israelis what they’re going to do, but all seven of us (G7 nations) agree that they have a right to respond but they should respond proportionally,” Biden told reporters before boarding Air Force One.
Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in a move that Biden previously described as “ineffective.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/joe-biden-israel-attack/2024/10/02/id/1182597/

***
Israel has banned U.N. Chief Guterres from entering country after failing to condemn Iran”. Katz affirmed “anyone who cannot condemn Iran’s heinous attack on Israel does not deserve to set foot on Israeli soil.”

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

The Israeli army announced the liquidation of Rawhi Mushtaha, the head of the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israel imposed unofficial military blockade on Hezbollah - controls who lands in Beirut; targeted routes along Lebanon-Syria border and army now warning not to use main Masnaa crossing (predominantly ‘civilian’) for combat equipment

IAF continued to hit Hezbollah zones in S Beirut overnight, killing more terrorist leaders.
NOTE - Beirut along with the rest of the country, has been divided up following the civil war. The areas being targeted by the IAF are Hezbollah districts and are uniformly occupied by Hezbollah and military related storage and facilities.

Overall, the IDF states that they struck approximately 200 Hezbollah terrorist targets in Lebanese territory, including terrorist infrastructure sites, terrorists, weapons storage facilities, observation posts, and additional terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah continues efforts to launch rockets into Israel, but are generally managing only about a 100 - 200 or so on an averaged daily basis.

Israel eliminated Hassan Jafar Kasir, the new commander of Unit 4400 for supplying weapons from Iran to Hezbollah. He replaced the previous commander of the unit which was his brother Muhammad Jafar Kasir, who was eliminated a few days ago.

A third mass evacuation of a population in southern Lebanon: the IDF spokesman in Arabic instructed another 26 villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate north of the Awali River

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israel hit a warehouse inside the Russian Hmeimim base. Israeli also hit targets the outskirts of the Russian Hmeimim airport near the city of Jableh in the Latakia countryside, and explosions. The targeted location appears to be a missile warehouse in Latakia, Jableh.

Israel bombed the Hmeimim base an hour after the arrival of an Iranian plane belonging to the “Qashim Fars” company. The Israeli bombing did not target the runways and towers at the Hmeimim base and the Latakia civilian airport. The Israeli bombing targeted other military sites in Latakia governorate, coinciding with the bombing of the warehouse inside the Hmeimim base.

Israeli bombing Yafour and Al-Dimas in the Damascus countryside.

Iranian media: Revolutionary Guards advisor Majid Diwani killed in raid on Damascus

Three commanders in Iran’s Quds Force were eliminated in Damascus overnight in a targeted strike.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

3 Swedish citizens aged 15-20 arrested for throwing hand grenades at the Israeli Embassy in Copenhagen this morning

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel keeps hitting Lebanon hard while it prepares for an Iranian strike. Some observers estimate that within the next 72 hours Israel will attack Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure and a few IRGC bases. Timing is obviously in the hands of Israel and may be affected by the series of holy days. Israel is currently observing the “days of awe” leading up to Yom Kippur (Oct 12) and Feast of Tabernacles (October 17-23). A symbolic day for the Israeli would obviously be Oct 7 - the one year anniversary of the Hamas terror attack that started the ball rolling. Israel will likely strike before Yom Kippur, any longer gets things balled up and misses the current window of opportunity.

Strong opposition to hitting iranian nuclear sites by biden appear to have affected Israeli planning. Some pushback even for hitting Iranian petroleum sector.

Again, the biggest economic target is Kharg Island and Iranian oil industry. There are many other targets out there as well. Mossad agents are likely to be working hard to track/maintain contact with the current location of the mullah’s hide outs as they are clearly now in the bullseye of Israel.

Israel has air and sea launched cruise missiles as well as ballistic missiles. Conventional warheads on them will still do incredible damage. Unlike - though I wouldn’t rule out Israeli ingenuity - is a direct aircraft strike on Iranian targets. A 2000 lb bunker buster would ruin many an underground facility, but the logistics necessary to pull such an attack off is extremely high with accompanying high risk.

Besides threatening Israel, Iran may well open up a more regional conflict (see unofficial IRGC comments below under “Iran”), even to the point of attempting to close the straits of Hormuz. This risk increases if US assets and combat elements join Israeli forces for the retaliatory strike.

The war in S Lebanon is panning out into a series of resonance in force probs - IDF moves in, touches Hezbollah and pulls back with critical ground intel.

Two axis of advance from IAF into Lebanon are developing. Northern one near Metula. This is where the distance from the Israeli border to the Litany River is the shortest.
The second is further south where the border bends towards the med. Key village in the near area is Bint Jbeil.

Israel may well be looking at cutting Hezbollah controlled S Lebanon in half, keyed by the Metula axis. Question is will this force swing north or west, cutting off Hezbollah ground forces and promoting defeat in detail.

Israel continues to activate more reserver units, so the thought that is current operation will be ‘limited’ is not likely - Israel has clearly stated that Hezbollah has to be removed from rocket range in S Lebanon and that means the Litiani River. No small 5 km incursion will obtain those goals.

What to expect in the near term / coming days

- Israeli counter strike on Iran
- Expansion of the ground offensive into Lebanon into a full scale operation.

Iran –

Washington Post quoting a senior European official: Tehran considers attacks on its oil and gas industry a red line

Iranian President Pezeshkian to senior Hamas officials during his visit to Doha, Qatar: If Israel makes the smallest mistake, there will be a more severe response from our armed forces

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards began to spread on news sites close to them and on various Telegram channels a sharp threat, according to which if Israel attacks oil facilities in Iran - there will be a severe response in the form of attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, Kuwait and Bahrain.

This is the first time that the Iranians threaten - even if not officially - to expand the missile fire to other countries. The Iranian threat is of course intended to raise concerns in Washington, that Israeli action against oil facilities in Iran will lead to a global energy crisis. So far, the countries mentioned in the Iranian threat have not addressed it.

The Iranian Ministry of Intelligence issues a threat in Hebrew according to which it will soon eliminate the heads of Israel’s security establishment and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Iran summons German, Austrian ambassadors over their condemnation of the missile attack on Israel

Iran’s envoy to Security Council: “We acted in response to Israel’s violation of Iran’s sovereignty and based on the right to defend ourselves, and Iran’s missile attacks were proportionate to Israeli violations”
“The only way to prevent further escalation is for Israel to end the war in Gaza and stop attacks on Lebanon”

***
Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed in an interview with CNN Turkey that a unit established to counter Israeli intelligence operations was itself infiltrated by Mossad agents. Ahmadinejad alleged that the Mossad, Israel’s top security agency, had placed one of its agents in charge of the very unit tasked with combating its activities.

GENERAL OBSERVATION - The ballistic missile attack has caused Iranian leaders and the Republican Guard to feel pretty cocky and are acting out on it in a blitz of bluster designed to try to intimidate Israel and any allies.

Weekend coming up and my major goal is to have my HF antenna up and operational.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024

MSNBC host Joy Reid has claimed that Democratic voters want to give former President Donald Trump a “knuckle sandwich” despite some of their bogus rhetoric to the contrary.
Reid told a network panel that the Democratic base really want someone to engage in a “fistfight” with Trump.

“Democrats want to see someone get up there and give a knuckle sandwich to Donald Trump,” Reid said.

https://thepopulisttimes.com/joy-reid-admits-democrats-want-violence-against-trump/

OBSERVATION - Reid continues to put a voice to the underlying violent desires of the progressive core of the democrat party. The fact that she keeps spewing calls for violence and not being censored by the network underlies the fact.

***
Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey has signed an emergency preamble to the state’s sweeping gun control bill, fast-tracking its implementation and halting an ongoing effort by gun rights activists to delay its effects.
The law, H.4885, was originally scheduled to take effect on Oct. 23, or 90 days after Healey signed the bill in July, but her decision to proceed with signing the emergency preamble means it goes into effect immediately.

H.4885 expands Massachusetts’ already strict gun regulations, in part as a response to the 2022 U.S. Supreme Court ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, which affirmed an individual’s right to carry firearms in public for self-defense.

The expedited law includes provisions banning untraceable “ghost guns,” expanding restrictions on “assault-style” firearms and large-capacity magazines, and tightening the state’s “red flag” rules. It also mandates that firearm license applicants pass a standardized safety exam and complete live-fire training, while also providing mental health information to local licensing authorities.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/massachusetts-governor-uses-emergency-powers-to-fast-track-sweeping-gun-control-law-5734298?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION - More govt tyranny at the state level. Circumventing the constitution.

***
There are several dozen pro-hamas/hezbollah protests scheduled for the weekend in cities across the country. Some may have violence/vandalism associated with them, likely in places like NYC, but no serious acts forecast.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.

(FO) According to a new interim report from the House Judiciary Committee staff, 1.7 million special interest aliens (SIA) from a list of 26 countries the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has determined pose the greatest national security and counterintelligence threat to the U.S. have entered the country since 2021. According to the report, 504,214 SIAs were encountered at the southwest border in 2024 so far. The majority of illegal immigrants from DHS’s list of 26 countries including Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, and Turkey are unlikely to have ties to terrorism or terrorist groups.

OBSERVATION - If these numbers decide to act, even our military forces will be overwhelmed, as a US division usually has about 10K-15K and we are looking at potentially 1.7 million!

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Tens of thousands of dock and port workers are heading back to work after their union and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative agreement to end the labor dispute on Oct. 3.

The breakthrough came after port employers reportedly offered a 62 percent wage increase over six years. The agreement also extends their master contract to add more time to iron out details over a new contract.

“The International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance, Ltd. have reached a tentative agreement on wages and have agreed to extend the Master Contract until January 15, 2025 to return to the bargaining table to negotiate all other outstanding issues,” ILA and USMX officials said in a joint statement.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/port-strike-ends-as-union-reaches-tentative-agreement-5734967?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION - Holding the country hostage - and getting a tentative 62% pay raise, while the vast majority of Americans would rejoice over a 3% raise. Talks will continue over increasing automation - a point that prior to the walk out was a no go - and will likely continue as such by the union.

RELATED - Florida Gov Ron DeSantis was set to deploy the National guard to secure port facilities and resume operations.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***

Try as hard as they could, spinmeisters for harris couldn’t put enough lipstick on the pig that was the VP debate. Walz dug himself into a pretty deep hole.

Biden / Harris Watch –

REPORTER: “What do the states in the storm zone need after what you saw today?”
BIDEN: “Oh, the storm zone. I’m with what storm they’re talking about.”
He also said the victims were ‘happy’.

Illegal Immigration –

Big in the news as it appears that the amount of money FEMA dumped into illegals has now grown to around $1.5 Billion over the past couple years.

See also Terrorism above for special interest aliens (SIA) notes.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair. Increasing chances of showers towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Two Russian oil depots were targeted last night by Ukrainian drones. In the Voronezh region, a drone struck a fuel tank, while in the Perm region, fuel containers are burning across an area of 10,000 m².

Overnight, Russia launched 17 Shahed drones. 9 of them were shot down, and 7 others were lost on Ukrainian territory, likely due to EW measures.

Outlook —

Russian offensive across the Donbas continues to grind, with no observable operational level success, only small tactical gains, sometimes measurable by the meter. Inspire of renewed activity in the Kursk region, no perceptible change has been noted there either.

Drone wars continue as Ukraine keeps hammering Russian oil sites/facilities. Seem Russia once again is beginning to target the Ukraine power grid.

No foreseeable breakouts on the ground. In the drone/missile wars things can change in an instant.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Moldovan authorities revealed a Russian operation aimed at bribing over 130,000 Moldovan citizens to influence votes and prevent the country from joining the European Union. According to police chief Viorel Cernăuțeanu, Russia transferred $15 million in September alone to spread disinformation, provoke unrest, and target state institutions. The payments were made through a bank linked to Russia’s defense ministry, with instructions provided via Telegram on how to vote and spread false information about the EU. (Bloomberg )

Belarus -

Lukashenka said that Belarus has never initiated confrontation and will do everything to peacefully coexist with Ukraine. “My main task is to prevent Belarus from being drawn into war.”

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Airstrikes take heavy toll on Hezbollah leadership.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

October 12, Yom Kippur

Reports that the new head of Iran’s Quds Forces in Lebanon was eliminated. He replaced General Abbas Nilforoushan (eliminated last week) who replaced General Mohammad Reza Zahedi (eliminated in April). The elimination of Hashem Safi A Din is believed to have been carried out while the Shura Council was meeting to choose a replacement for Nasrallah . If the report is correct, we are talking about the elimination of a large number of senior Hezbollah officials!

Hezbollah leaders:
Hassan Nasrallah: Eliminated on September 27.
Hassan Khalil Yassin: Appointed on September 28. Eliminated hours later.
Hashem Safieddine: Appointed on October 1. Eliminated on October 3.

Hours after eliminating the new Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine, Israel Air Force eliminated his brother as well.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Hamas et al managed to fire a few rockets overnight.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli Defense Minister: Ground operation on northern border will continue until area is cleared of weapons. Gallant says Israel has “more surprises in store” for Hezbollah, as ground operations continue in southern Lebanon.

New evacuation warning was issued by Israeli army to the residents of the building in Hadath district of Beirut

New developing axis. Lebanese border: Clashes in Kafr Kila axis between Hezbollah elements and the Israeli army . This is in the northern most part of the Israeli/Lebanon border zone.

1Israeli naval vessels struck targets in S Beirut overnight for the first time in the war.

Massive airstrikes believed to have taken out nearly all of Hezbollah’s Shura Council overnight .

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli fighter jets struck a 3.5 kilometer-long tunnel that crossed between Lebanon and Syria, which the Israeli army says was used by Hezbollah to smuggle Iranian weapons. A separate overnight strike targeted “infrastructure” at the Masnaa Border Crossing, between Lebanon and Syria, after the Israeli army said it identified attempts to deliver Iranian weapons to Hezbollah

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Germany and Switzerland asked all their citizens to leave Iran immediately, in anticipation of Israel’s massive response.
They follow Britain that asked its citizens to leave Iran yesterday.
Sweden calls on its citizens to leave the territory of Iran.

The Swedish government held a press conference and confirms that “there are aspects that point to Iranian involvement” in Tuesday’s shooting attack against Israel Embassy in Stockholm and y-day’s hand grenade attacks against the Israeli Embassy in Copenhagen.
The hand grenade attack against the Israeli Embassy in Copenhagen and the shooting attack against the Israeli Embassy in Sweden were carried out by Sweden’s largest organized crime gang “Foxtrot” on the order of the Islamic Regime in Iran. The leader to the gang, Rawa “the Kurdish Fox” Majid lives in Turkey and Iraq from where he controls the gang.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

SMH, Israel nails the remnants of Hezbollah and Iranian Quds leadership - again. Maybe they do have a genie helping them out - since the timing and accuracy of the strikes have been nothing but phenomenal.

Ground operations in S Lebanon continue slow and methodical. Israel finding numerous ‘residences’ loaded to the gills with munitions. One can view these border villages as Hezbollah’s first line of defense and once this zone is cleared out, ground operations may pick up speed.

Israel is still expected to strike Iran within the next few days. I still like the Oct 7 date to attack just for its symbolism. Iran is very nervous with the uncertainty of just what targets will be hit. Some observers continue to suggest biden convinced Netanyahu to avoid the nuclear sites for now, but may have gotten the honey badger treatment regarding other targets.

More OSINT assessment of the missile strike has run into image quality issues, some think deliberate tampering with resolutions. Some are saying that at one airbase as many as 20-30 missiles got thru, though did very little substantial damage.

Iran –

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, leading Friday Prayers for the first time in 5 years, addressed a mass gathering days after Iran’s attack on Israel: “The enemy of Iran is the same as the enemy of Iraq, Lebanon, and Egypt. Our enemy is one and the same.”

***
In anticipation of Israel’s attack on its oil infrastructure, Iran shuts down Khark Island where it exports more than 90% of its oil. every Iranian tanker left Kharg Island’s oil terminal anchorage.

Misc of Note –

Just weeks away from the election, and there are growing indicators that Harris is losing. This is where Democrats will be the most dangerous.
I am getting a growing feeling that they will do what ever it takes to keep trump out of office - and that includes violent acts.

Entering the last month of the presidential campaign. Arguably, the most sensitive and potentially dangerous period in our country’s history.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024

Note on Terrorism below. NYC and other major metro areas may face enlarged pro-islamic terror protests with the approach of Oct 7. There is increasing potential for rioting and vandalism.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.

Federal authorities issued a warning ahead of the one-year October 7 anniversary when Hamas terrorists launched attacks on Israel and killed thousands of innocent lives.

The FBI, Department of Homeland Security, and National Counterterrorism Center posted a federal intelligence bulletin warning of potential violence “as well as any further significant escalations” in the Israel-Hamas war that “may be a motivating factor for violent extremists and hate crime perpetrators to engage in violence or threaten public safety.”

POTENTIALLY RELATED - crossing over to CW2 material
More so on the RUMINT side, I pinned these notes from Forward Observer over a month ago regarding potential kick off for more pro-hamas/pro-islam violence and terror

Palestine Action U.S., a prominent U.S.-based Palestinian activist group, recently rebranded as “Unity of Fields,” and issued a declaration to escalate pro-Palestine militant activity.

Unity of Fields says the current pro-Palestine movement has “reached the limits of passive” activism and is now forming a “militant front against the US-NATO-Zionist Axis of Imperialism.”

The group declared they will “open a new front” against the U.S. empire to join the international resistance movement against Zionism and its supporters.

Alt-media pundits are equating this development to the 7 October 2023 Hamas terror attack in Israel, predicting that terrorist attacks will erupt across the United States in October.

OBSERVATION - The threat from the pro-islam factions was kindled this past spring on college campuses following extended protests and some violence that started with the Hamas terror strike on Israel on Oct 7, ’23. There leftist Antifa affiliated trash found a kindled spirit and supported the various actions. Because of the ongoing war, these terror supporters have been able to maintain some degree of presence. With the anniversary of the war, and Israel’s imminent attack on Iran, more radical elements may move forward beyond the protests / vandalism and into terror attacks.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

U.S. economy reportedly added 254,000 jobs in September
Unemployment rate to 4.1%

OPEN THE HOOD AND LOOK DEEPER
“Over the past year alone, 825,000 American citizens LOST employment, while most jobs went to foreign-born workers. 1.2 million foreign-born workers GAINED employment. Full-time jobs are DOWN: 251,000 fewer full-time jobs, while part-time workers jumped,” the Make America Great Again Pac released Friday. “Jobs reports like these almost always get revised down- we cannot trust this Administration to report the actual jobs data- in the last year alone they have manipulated these reports to reflect almost a MILLION FAKE jobs that have taken victory laps for and then later revised down.”

Unemployment at 4.1% under Biden-Harris is sharply higher than Trump’s 3.5%. It’s that much harder today to find a job–especially for the 2.7 million unemployed White men and 700,000 unemployed Black women. Those groups have the suffered the biggest increase in unemployed rate.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2024/10/04/team-trump-notes-a-key-fact-about-the-latest-job-numbers-n2645737#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - The regime and its MSM underlings will not point out these details from the labor report. They hope to gaslight the majority to accept their narrative. Once again, Americans are the ones really feeling the effects of these cooked numbers.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC

This summit was held this week. I’ve not seen any press releases on any results - likely buried beneath the tons of other news.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***

On Friday, CNN published a story about fraud under Walz’s governorship as the misappropriation of state funds led to what the Department of Justice called “the single largest COVID-19 fraud scheme in the nation.”

Feeding Our Future — a program to help feed needy children — fraudulently spent close to $250 million, but as CNN reported, instead of going to help hungry kids, the money went toward “buying houses, luxury cars, and a suburban bar and restaurant.”

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/cnn-drops-bomb-tim-walz-releases-blistering-segment/

OBSERVATION - Follow the money, honey.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden continues to throw cold water on Harris’ attempts to distance herself from the regime, most recently saying she was fully involved in creating and implementing all the policies of the past three years.

Russia -

Logistics –

Around half of the artillery shells used by Russia, approximately 3 million annually, come from North Korea, according to The Times. Despite many shells being considered defective, their sheer quantity has enabled Russia to make steady advances, including the capture of Vuhledar in Donetsk.

NOTE - Russia is fast losing the ability to fire these rounds. Battle losses combined with tube failures are increasing.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair. Increasing chances of showers towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, out of 13 launched, Ukraine shot down 3 Shahed drones and 10 additional drones were taken down due to EW measures.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Zhelanne Druhe in Donetsk region of Ukraine

OSINT analysis of the Russian offensive in this region -
Incredible Russian losses on the Pokrovsk front. Russia burned through over a tank division’s worth of tanks and at least 4-5 mechanized division’s worth of IFVs and APCs. Not including personnel losses approximately equal to material losses.
All of that lost to advance a grand total of about 𝟑𝟎 𝐤𝐦 (about 15 miles) west of Avdiivka over the past eight months.
Assessment is that Russia’s efforts here are fast running out of steam as well as men and equipment.

Outlook —

Continued grind on the eastern front. No operational breakthroughs seen for either side in the near term

It is about time for another Russian missile/drone blitz.

Belarus -

Lukashenka says that decision was made not to comment not on Russian or Ukrainian drones flying in Belarusian airspace
NOTE - This has become an almost daily occurrence as Russian Shahed drones stray off course.

Europe / NATO General –

Romania’s Ministry of Defense confirmed the discovery of Russian drone fragments near the Litcov Canal, approximately one kilometer from the confluence with the Sf. Gheorghe branch. A team from the Ministry of Defense, Romanian Intelligence Service, and Ministry of Internal Affairs inspected the site and collected the fragments for further analysis.
The Ministry condemned Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, labeling them unjustified and a violation of international law.

ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur

Key overnight developments -

- Israel continues to kill high ranking Hamas, Hezbollah and IRGC commanders.

- Ground action in S Lebanon continues.

- Israel looking to defy biden in their counter strike planning.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel army says it is preparing a “significant attack” on Iran

Bloomberg, citing an informed source (probably biden regime official): There are concerns that Israel may cross the line and attack more targets than necessary in Iran

Biden says Israel should seek ‘other alternatives’ to striking Iran oil sites

Israeli Broadcasting Authority: Israel is still preparing to strike Iran, but has not specified the place and time.

Israel has refused to promise the United States that it would not attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in response to the Iranian attack. Also hasn’t promised to scale back any attack on Iranian oil production and related facilities.

***
Iran has been attempting to land a 747 cargo jet at an airfield either in Syria or even Beirut. For the third time Iran’s cargo plane with weapons for Hezbollah made a U-turn and returned to Tehran, after Israel threatened to intercept it.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

The Israeli army is calling on Palestinian civilians in some areas of Nuseirat and Bureij in the central Gaza Strip to evacuate to the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone according to Colonel Avichay Adraee, the Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesman

Hamas has announced the Death of Saeed Atallah Ali, the head of their military wing also known as the “Al-Qassam Brigades” in Lebanon, who was eliminated yesterday in an Israeli precision-airstrike on his aspartment within the Beddawi refugee camp in the Tripoli District of northwestern Lebanon.
NOTE - It seems a number of Hamas and affiliated terror leaders are showing up in Lebanon instead of holding to fight in Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

A barrage of rockets was fired from Lebanon at the Karmiel area in the Galilee, dealt with via Iron Dome

Troops of the Israeli army’s Commando Brigade and elite Yahalom Unit demolished several Hezbollah tunnel shafts that the military says were used by operatives to get close to the Israeli border in southern Lebanon. The soldiers also located and demolished underground caches of weapons, observation posts, and rocket launching sites in villages in southern Lebanon. Dozens of Hezbollah operatives were also killed in airstrikes directed by the commandos, the military adds

For the first time since the start of the recent escalation in Lebanon, northern Lebanon was targeted by an Israeli drone strike that targeted an apartment in a residential building in the Beddawi camp - north of Tripoli, killing four people, including Saeed al-Ali, a leader in the “Qassam Brigades”, the military wing of the “Hamas” movement.

Unconfirmed reports that Esmail Qaani, Commander of Iran’s Quds Forces, was eliminated in a targeted strike in Beirut. Qaanai replaced Qasem Soleimani who was eliminated by the US in 2020.

Israel is prepared to widen its operations in Southern Lebanon soon, according to the Channel 11

Summary of the results from the first 4 days of the Israeli ground operations -
250 Hezbollah terrorists were killed, of which 21 are commanders.

Among them:
- 5 battalion commanders
- 10 company commanders
- 6 platoon commanders

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Initial reports of Israeli strikes on Palmyra military airport in the Homs Governorate of central Syria, which is operated by the Russian-based “Wagner Group” and the an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Iran’s FM: Iran stands with the Axis of Resistance. My presence in Beirut in these difficult times is the best sign that Iran will firmly back Hezbollah and Lebanon. Iran’s attack against Israel was a self-defense under the UN Charter. We were the initiator of the attack

American-British attacked Houthi targets in Sana’a, Yemen
According to U.S. Defense Officials; the USS Georgia (SSGN-729), an Ohio-Class Cruise Missile Submarine which can carry upwards of 150 “Tomahawk” Land-Attack Cruise Missiles (TLAMs), participated in today’s strikes against the Houthi terrorist group in Western Yemen.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

(AP) — U.S.-arranged flights have brought about 350 Americans and their immediate relatives out of Lebanon this week during escalated fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, while thousands of others still there face airstrikes and diminishing commercial flights.

Britain has arranged charter flights to rescue British citizens in Lebanon.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Clock ticking down to Israel’s counter strike on Iran. Public ‘announcements’ from the biden regime telling Israel to scale back any attack. Israel / Netanyahu OTOH appear to be ready to hit Iran very hard - sending the message to it and the arab world that biden et al just doesn’t understand.

My best guess is that Iran’s oil infrastructure and especially Kharg Island are going to get hard. Other important targets will be Irans’s ballistic missiles and key components of their nuclear weapons development program. Israel may wait for another day to focus fully on the nuke program in a broader measure. Other IRGC bases/facilities also choice targets.
Bonus - I expect an attempt to take out the mullahs.

Israel’s strike has to be big and hard, else they show that pressure from biden is weakening their resolve to fight this war the way it should be. Israel’s last attack after the April Iranian attack, though small, sent a very strategic message, one that Iran may be overlooking.

Israel is on the verge of finishing up its initial push into Lebanon - designed to overcome the defensive line Hezbollah had established in an attempt to repeat the 2008 war. Cut off from higher level support, Hezbollah forces can put up an initial hard fight, but have no wear with all and die in place.

Lebanon is a different battle field than Gaza, though there be some similarities.

Israel is being aggressive in cutting off resupply to Hezbollah coming in from Syria. Again, Israeli intel capabilities have eyes on this and they are not afraid to go after it. The recent attack on a Hezbollah / Iranian ammo dump next to a Russian military base is one example. I fully expect that the IAF will eventually shoot down the Iranian cargo 747 that has been attempting to get supplies to Hezbollah and its affiliated militias. This will force Iran to try to use trucks to get supplies in - a method that is equally vulnerable and has been nailed multiple times by Israel in the past.

Israel continues to nail leadership of all terror groups - in a daily basis - in massive amounts As noted, several third order replacements have been taken out- - probably those who didn’t warrant a pager. This should make the Mullah’s in Iran very nervous. Israel hit a Hamas leader in a guest room of an IRGC general, they may well know where the mullah’s are hiding.

Timing is still Israel’s call. I continue to think Oct 7 would be a very symbolic day for the big counter strike - avoiding any conflicts with Yom Kippur on Oct 12.

Iran –

Reports that Russia has supplied S400 ADA systems to Iran.

Syria -

Reports of a rocket attack against U.S Forces at the Mission Support Site at Conoco earlier. No reports of casualties. USAF CAPs were up and have been over the region, no reports of airstrikes.

Misc of Note –

Helene recovery issues continue -

Persistent first hand accounts of FEMA blocking relief, threatening arrests, covering up other despicable actions all the while providing virtually no assistance to those hardest hit in TN and NC.

In response, in addition to a massive PR spin from peripheral areas getting ‘support’, FEMA has also established ‘rumor control’ to fight its public relations nightmare.
“There has been a lot of rumors spreading about the #Helene response. Rumors can create confusion & prevent people from getting assistance they need. Help us share accurate information,” FEMA wrote.

FEMA’s interference in local relief efforts even gained national note when Elon Musks helicopters carrying Starlink receivers were blocked by FEMA (also, biden claimed credit for the Starlink systems Musk had already delivered and installed).

“Tech billionaire Elon Musk took to X on Friday afternoon to claim the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is “actively blocking” volunteers who try to help the struggling citizens of western North Carolina in the wake of Hurricane Helene.
“Just received this note from a SpaceX engineer helping on the ground in North Carolina,” Musk wrote. “@FEMA is not merely failing to adequately help people in trouble, but is actively blocking citizens who try to help!””

https://www.newsmax.com/us/aid-fema-helene/2024/10/04/id/1182894/

Again first hand reports that a FEMA official was beat up by locals after he tried to bully them. Reports that the NC Highway Patrol (functionally the state police) has threatened to arrest any FEMA personnel from blocking and confiscating relief supplies or otherwise interfering with relief operations organized by civilians.

Local sheriffs warning of arrests of FEMA associated individuals if they interfere with independent relief efforts, noting that many areas have drifted into a WORL (Without Rule of Law) conditions.

Do I believe these reports over the PR put out by the regime? Most certainly, the carry greater credibility and components of which HAVE been done in the past. Especially the Red Cross scam. Continued oppression by FEMA may bring even stronger pushback in the coming days. Lead, follow or get out of the way.

Bright spots in the civilian efforts
- Mule teams (and even trained goat teams) packing supplies into stricken areas
- Creative construction of zip lines to ferry supplies across rivers/gorges

- Increase in civilian helicopters (in the face of FEMA threats). Interesting note that the Cajun Navy has basically established a helicopter wing and are flying numerous missions.

Folks this is ugly and we shouldn’t have to be fighting a bloated govt bureaucracy to mobilize aid to disaster victims. FEMA has turned into a monster.

***
One lighter note - my HF antenna is up and I’ll be fully operational by the end of the day. Primarily operating on the 10m-40m bands, capable of monitoring up to 160 m band. Please don’t ask for my calling - too easily looked up on the FCC website. Comms is a critical element - clearly seen in the Helene disaster. This has been one of my check box goals for this year.

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