Officially up and running on HF frequencies. Made a quick contact to someone 250 miles away (short distance relative to HF), didn’t try to do more because there was some serious competition going on (seeing who could get the most contacts in the event period). But monitoring did show i received signals from across the US and possibly into Mexico/Central America.
Globalism / Great Reset –
CNN interview
Hillary Clinton says that social media companies must censor people’s content or else “we lose total control.”
OBSERVATION - Its pretty well established that hillary was a hard core totalitarian. Here she echos the same global standard Lurch did a few days ago. Only sanctioned speech should be allowed. The unspoken assumption is that there will be punishments for those who oppose the regime.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
NYC and other major metro areas may face enlarged pro-islamic terror protests with the approach of Oct 7. There is increasing potential for rioting and vandalism.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Trump returned to Butler, Penn where he was nearly killed three months ago to kick off the final month of campaigning for the WH. Attendance was estimated by some to be close to 100,000. At the time the shots were fired, all paused to remember the murdered firefighter and the others wounded. Elon Musk also came onto the platform to emphasize that not only is the First Amendment threatened by the democrats, but the whole constitution.
Trump reportedly will be hosting a rally every day up to the election.
***
If history trends are being followed, the polling should tighten down to what is expected on election day. Key for those to look at are the internals for over sampling, registered vs likely voters, etc. I think there will be some polling firms go down with the ship though as IMHO polling will heavily tilt to trying to suppress enthusiasm for trump turn out.
On a big brush level, harris is in trouble. Compared to hillary’s polling in 2016, she is underperforming and her past seems to be catching up with her. Hillary was at that phase shown to be ahead by double digits, while harris is shown to be squeaking by at a few points.
It aint over till its over.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Kamala Harris was left repeating the same phrase after her teleprompter appeared to malfunction in an embarrassing gaffe at a Michigan rally.
The Vice President was speaking to a crowd in Flint when the system appeared to glitch.
‘Remember his number 32 today? We got 32 days until the election,’ Harris says.
Illegal Immigration –
CBS News Reports:
The Biden administration will not be extending the legal status of tens of thousands of Venezuelan migrants who were allowed to fly to the U.S. under a sponsorship program designed to reduce illegal border crossings, according to U.S. officials and internal documents obtained by CBS News.
The administration first launched the program in October 2022 to discourage Venezuelans from traveling to the U.S.-Mexico border by offering them a legal way to enter the country if American-based individuals agreed to sponsor them. It was then expanded in January 2023 to include migrants from Cuba, Haiti and Nicaragua, whose citizens were also crossing the U.S. southern border in record numbers at the time.
OBSERVATION - Interesting home stretch of the presidential campaign move. Do they expect them to self deport?
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 56 of 87 Shahed drones overnight. Odesa was hit by some that got thru.
Russia pressing the attack in Donbas, but achieving very little.
Russia lost one of its batwing ‘stealth’ drone/wingman unmanned aircraft, one of two in existence, after reportedly Russians lost control of the guidance system and they decided to shoot it down to prevent it getting into Ukraine and eventually western hands.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Ukraine has been increasing and strengthening defensive line around Pokrovsk should Ukraine have to pull back from current positions.
Russian Territory –
There was a fire in Kuzminki, after a Ukraine drone attack on the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School.
Outlook —
No real changes except that Russian is beginning to lose its race with the weather. Fall rains are starting and will soon turn the soil into a quagmire, severely restricting maneuvering.
Watching for another series of large missile strikes from Russia - they are due.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- Massive airstrikes hitting ammo dumps in S Beirut, with huge secondary explosions, called the worst night since the bombing started.
- IDF launches new operations in N Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Prime Minister Netanyahu: “About a month ago, towards the end of the destruction of the Hamas battalions in Gaza - we began fulfilling the promise I gave to the residents of the north. We killed Nasrallah and the top of Hezbollah. We killed the commanders of the Radwan force who planned to invade the Galilee and carry out a greater and more terrible massacre of our citizens than the one on October 7. Iran has twice launched hundreds of missiles at our territory, in one of the largest ballistic missile attacks in history. No country in the world would have accepted such an attack, nor would the State of Israel, and we will respond to these attacks.”
United States CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla landed in Israel yesterday to meet with Israeli defense and military officials, amid preparations in the Israeli army for a response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack
***
The Israeli military says it has reinforced security in southern Israel ahead of the anniversary of the 7 October attacks.
A statement says it is on heightened alert for threats in the region this week, and is preparing for possible “defense and offense” operations.
The IDF says extra troops have been deployed to communities close to Gaza.
A number of memorial events are planned to mark one year since Hamas launched deadly raids into southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.
***
On Saturday French President Emmanuel Macron called for a halt to arms shipments to Israel for use in Gaza. He told national broadcaster France Inter in an interview that finding a “political solution” to the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts must be a “priority” and that a full arms embargo would help create the conditions.
Netanyahu’s response was direct and to the point to the French President’s call to impose a Western arms embargo on Israel:
“We will win with or without you, but your disgrace will remain long after the victory in the war.”
Netanyahu also announced this evening on the Iranian issue:
“It is Israel’s right and duty to respond - and we will do so.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Regarding Sinwar, Qatar authorities are saying -
“He has disappeared for us too and has not made contact,” the officials were cited as saying.
***
The IDF’s 162nd Division launched a new ground operation last night in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya, the military says.
The IDF says the division’s 401st and 460th armored brigades encircled Jabaliya overnight, and troops are currently operating in the area.
The operation comes after the IDF says it has intelligence of Hamas operatives and infrastructure in the Jabaliya area, alongside efforts by the terror group to re-establish itself there.
As troops entered the area, the IDF says it carried out a wave of airstrikes and artillery shelling, targeting dozens of Hamas sites in Jabaliya, including weapon depots, tunnels, cells of operatives, and other infrastructure.
“The operation will continue as long as necessary, while systematically striking and thoroughly destroying the terror infrastructure in the area,” the IDF says.
The IDF calls on residents of the northern Gaza Strip to go south in advance of the operation.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli military announced that it carried out a series of targeted air strikes on Hezbollah sites, including “many weapons depots and other militant infrastructure,” targeting the southern suburbs with more than 30 strikes, the echoes of which were heard in Beirut.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati called on Sunday for “pressure on Israel” to “ceasefire” after a night of violent raids that rocked the southern suburbs of Beirut, a stronghold of Hezbollah. “We demand pressure on Israel to commit to a ceasefire and implement Resolution 1701 immediately,” Mikati said in a statement.
Israeli media reports the killing of Mohammad Anisi, one of the leaders of Hezbollah’s precision missile project, in an airstrike on Beirut
Lebanese media: Hezbollah senior official Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyed refuses to assume leadership of Hezbollah, and requests to travel to Tehran in order to devote himself to worship in Iran.
***
Observers are noting that Hezbollah appears to be trying to avoid decisive engagements with the IDF.
Israeli sources reported that Hezbollah is trying to keep its forces at a distance and will withdraw shortly after making contact with the IDF.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
An Israeli raid targeted a convoy of four-wheel drive vehicles leaving a car manufacturing plant in the Hasya area, on the outskirts of Homs city.
A massive explosion struck the Hasiya Industrial City, South of Homs-city from an Israeli airstrike
Explosions in area of Qusseir (South-West Homs) following Israeli raids on the area bordering Lebanon
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
France calling for and international embargo on military supplies to Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel continues to hammer the Hezbollah district in S Beirut, hitting large ammo storage sites with a spectacular display of secondary explosions.
In S Lebanon, Israel is growing the ground assault and clearing the Hezbollah prepared positions. As noted above, it appears Hezbollah doesn’t want to be fully engaged, knowing they are out gunned, and are likely trying to stage an organized retreat under the cover of ambushes and ATGM attacks. These tactics are somewhat similar to what they did in 2008, but in this case, Israel appears to have anticipated it and are more effectively countering those tactics.
The tactics of Hezbollah in S Lebanon suggest that on a tactical level, there is still some level of effective command and control. However, as initial action reports come in, IDF is attriting those leaders as well, which is probably why they now don’t want to become decisively engaged.
With growing push of Israeli forces into S Lebanon, the options for Hezbollah to fall back will grow slimmer and slimmer. They will have to try to stand their ground at some point.
It is almost untraceable at this stage, the numbers of senior Hamas, Hezbollah and IRGC leaders Israel takes out on a daily basis. It has reached a point where some like Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyed are running away from being appointed leader of Hezbollah.
Big action in N Gaza but not unexpected. Israel continues to let elements of Hamas regroup, pulling the remnants into a defined area, then raiding them to take them out.
Jumpy nerves in the areas around Iran. Last night alerts concerning the observation of an unusual number of jets over Baghdad, combined with NOTAMS for Iran caused jitters that the awaited counter strike was imminent. Fog of war.
However, the general consensus is that Israel will be hitting and very soon. Besides the speculation that near the top of Israel’s list are oil & gas facilities, other targets include missile bases, presidential complex, Khamenei’s compound & Revolutionary Guards command centers in Tehran.
Delivery of destruction may bring a few surprises, like I suspect that Israeli subs operating in the gulf will use cruise missiles - potentially on Kharg Island as well as other targets. Israel may use ballistic missiles of its own as Iran lacks any real ABM capabilities.
Again, I see tomorrow as a very symbolic day to launch such an attack.
Iran –
The Iranian Civil Aviation Authority has issued a NOTAM (Notice-to-Air Missions) for significant portions of its western airspace, indicating that commercial flight paths will be closed every night from 1700 to 0130 UTC due to “Military Exercise.” Thru Oct 9.
Misc of Note –
More fury surrounding Helene and related.
Conservative commentator Breanna Morello accused the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) of diverting disaster relief funds to address the ongoing influx of illegal immigration.
FEMA’s rumor control central went out an called this ‘false’. Until Morello posted supporting documentation from FEMA itself.
The fact that FEMA has wasted money with their Rumor Control Central, point us to an old adage - where there is smoke, there is fire. There are plenty of leftist supporters more than willing to present a false narrative on a wide range of subjects, that these few influences claiming to refute the massive numbers of first hand accounts by residents of the hit regions is flat out suspect. Staged photo ops in peripheral areas. Even one claimed to have penetrated into the heart of damaged area actually in many ways confirmed the reports of no FEMA presence.
BTW a new storm is gathering strength and targeting central/southern Florida.
I sure hope Jews worldwide are ready and alert. I could see the terrorists worldwide ready to act in many locations around the world outside Israel since it’s so well known that Israel is on high alert for this sad 1 year anniversary.
Tropical Storm Milton
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4269109/posts
A little excitement overnight, a 4.1 mag earthquake hit the town of Dillon MT, my wife was up getting a drink of water at the time and felt the house shake here at our home in the Redoubt 40 miles away. I being sound asleep —geologist frump :( — missed the fun
This week has all the potential to be another barn burner. Second major hurricane targeting Florida, impending Israeli counter strike on Iran, election chaos and more.
Globalism / Great Reset –
In a recent article in the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR), Kyle Pope, co-founder of the Covering Climate Now (CCN), asked for input on a project produced through an association of the CJR, Covering Climate Now, Solutions Journalism Network, as well as politically left-wing outlets The Guardian and The Nation.
The project is called the “Climate Blueprint for Media Transformation,” which encourages reporters to insert climate change into every story and to view fossil fuel industry voices as inherently dishonest. CCN also openly promotes the idea that journalists should not be objective when reporting on climate and energy.
OBSERVATION - Now you see why the globalists must censor (and punish) those offering alternative view to the desired narrative. They can’t afford to have their brainwashing machine exposed for what it is. In this case its their old tipping boy - fossil fuels.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
With the pending Israeli strike on Iran, potential for the breakout of protests by pro-islamic groups, with the support of antifa types, is moderately high.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
(RealClearInvestigations)—Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency told Congress last month that it had $4 billion in its Disaster Relief Fund, officials also warned that the Fund could have a shortfall of $6 billion by year’s end, a situation FEMA says could deteriorate in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.
While FEMA is expected to ask Congress for new money, budget experts note a surprising fact: FEMA is currently sitting on untapped reserves appropriated for past disasters stretching back decades.
An August report from the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Inspector General noted that in 2022, FEMA “estimated that 847 disaster declarations with approximately $73 billion in unliquidated funds remained open.”
https://americafirstreport.com/untapped-relief-fema-is-sitting-on-billions-of-unused-disaster-funds/
OBSERVATION - Bureaucratic bloat of the worst kind, and its not just here but throughout govt. It does demonstrate the disingenuous nature of the alphabet agencies and funding. In FEMAs case even worse by accusing the republicans of not funding it, when they waste the vast majority of it.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris and Walz are essentially being forces out to do interviews - being dangerous for both because they have such a tangle of lies and flipflops and in harris’ case, wordsaladitius things can become disastrous. Case in point, Walz was interview by Fox and walked strait into a meat grinder over challenges from his most basic, core stances and statements.
Illegal Immigration –
Buried in the news is illegals entering have declined again in September, but still at a pace exceeding the Trump years.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50-60s with rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Air defense shot down 2 of 3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles and 32 Shahed-type drones(from about 75)
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Hrodivka town in Donetsk region of Ukraine
Crimean front —
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirmed attack at naval oil terminal in Feodosiya, occupied Crimea. Massive fires shown in videos posted on social media. Civilians forced to evacuate.
Outlook —
Well, same old, same old. Russia continues it bloody push into Donbas with heavy losses and only making the most minor gains.
Unconfirmed reports that Russian missile boats are venturing back into the Black Sea, so we may see both missile attacks plus drone attack boat action in the coming days.
It appears that Russia’s current nuclear threats against the west is paying off as more NATO nations are not allowing weapons to be used in Russia.
Belarus -
More lost Russian Shahed drones have been wandering around Belarus in past days.
ISRAEL –
October 12, Yom Kippur
Key overnight developments -
- One year anniversary of the Oct 7 massacre and attacks by Hamas.
- Major action in N Gaza
- Third Israeli division committed to Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
One year ago, Hamas violated a ceasefire and launched the latest round of fighting in the middle east. Since then, Hamas and Hezbollah have fired 26,240 rockets, missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles towards Israel.
Galant to CNN: All options on the table regarding response to Iran. We are coordinating closely with Washington as we prepare to respond to Iran, but we will make our own independent decisions regarding the response
Various news sources are saying US officials have offered Israel extensive diplomatic backing and additional military assistance if they refrain from attacking certain targets in Iran.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
(ISW). The IDF launched a new clearing operation into the Jabalia refugee camp in order to disrupt Hamas reconstitution efforts. The IDF last operated in the area in May 2024 and encountered significant resistance at that time from three Hamas battalions. Now
Five Palestinian militias, including Hamas, defended against Israeli advances into Jabalia on Oct 6. The militias conducted combined attacks using several types of weapons systems, indicating that the militias retain some ability to coordinate operations and access diverse weapons stockpiles.
The Israeli army is beginning to evacuate all the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to Khan Yunis, except for Gaza City. This is happening after the resumption of fighting around/in Jabaliya
Hamas planned to launch a larger barrage of rockets at Israel this morning, and its plans were foiled, the IDF says.
In a statement, the military says it “thwarted an immediate threat, following early preparations and the identification of an intention by the Hamas terror organization to fire at Israel.”
Fighter jets struck several rocket launchers and tunnels across Gaza moments before 6:30 a.m., when Hamas planned to carry the rocket fire, according to the IDF.
Hamas managed to launch just four rockets at the Sufa area at 6:30, three of which were intercepted and the fourth landed in an open area.
Separately, the IDF struck Hamas sites in central Gaza overnight, which it says posed a threat to Israeli forces operating in the Netzarim Corridor area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army announces that its 91st “Galilee” Regional Division began ground operations last night in southern Lebanon, joining two other divisions already operating there against Hezbollah. The division is normally responsible for the entire Lebanon border area.
The evacuation order of the IDF to the residents of southern Lebanon has expanded, no longer only to the Litani river but now to beyond the Awali river!
Five rockets managed to get thru Iron Dome and impact the port city of Haifa overnight. IDF evaluating what went wrong. Only a few injuries reported. Hezbollah also targeted Tel Aviv where debris from intercepted rockets and interceptor caused minor damage.
Massive explosions again overnight as IAF hit large ammo dumps in S Beirut.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The border road between Lebanon and Syria at the Masnaa point is still cut off due to the Israeli raid, but crossing on foot continues.
Israeli raids targeted Syrian army ammunition depots in the areas of Shtai and Shanshar in the Homs countryside, and ammunition depots in the Tal Shanan area and the western side of the city of Salamiyah in the Hama countryside
One of the Israeli air raids targeted the Karim warehouses northwest of the city of Salamiyah in the eastern Hama countryside. These warehouses house tank shells, artillery and missiles.
Israeli raids targeted weapons depots in the village of Al-Shtayyah in the eastern countryside of Homs, where explosions are still occurring.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Official Jordanian source to Al-Arabiya TV: Jordan will not open its airspace to Israeli aircraft to attack Iran.
In response to threats coming from Iran to harm Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran, the President of Azerbaijan Ilam Aliyev threatens tonight: “In the event of hostile action against us, we will rain down fire and burn Iran and its tributaries. Azerbaijan will not tolerate any threat on its people and its economy.”
NOTE - Israel supported the Azeri’s in the conflict with Armenia in recent years, while Iran supported Armenia. Nearly sparked a local war between the two at the time.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Guessing game still as to when Israel will even the score with Iran. It is evident that the US is trying to mess with Israeli plans and timing, but then the US wasn’t on the receiving end of nearly 200 ballistic missiles. biden et al are paranoid that things will escalate. Fact is a weak(ened) response is what will cause things to escalate on Irans side, making them feel strong and froggier. The Israeli counter assault is too important of an action to allow it to be watered down by an Iranian-loving administration (yes, I went there).
So far the Israeli honey badger is set to go it alone if necessary.
Global calls by France to stop arms support to Israel has yet to gain much traction. France was one of the first European countries to succumb to the massive moslem migration. France also has the nasty history of collaborating with forces deliberately attempting genocide against the Jews. WW2 it was the Nazi’s, today it is Iran and radical islam.
To get back to when Israel will strike, I still believe at minimum it will be this week if not in the next few days before Yom Kippur. Israel may well be playing the head game with Iran, just like Iran did to Israel. If Iran thinks Israel is succumbing to US pressures and lowers its guard, then wammo. Works for me.
In Gaza, Israel may be on the beginning of creating an Israeli military controlled zone in N Gaza. Such has been discussed over the months. At this stage, remnant Hamas and affiliated groups are in the process of being encircled and eliminated - while civilians are being directed south in a staged manner. End game developments in Gaza while things pick up in Lebanon.
With the commitment of a third division - the 93d - pressure on Hezbollah frontline forces will increase dramatically. With support from higher command sorely lacking, they are having to rely on the experience of local commanders. Some cases are good results, other times it results in signifiant losses. So far Hezbollah has been unable to reproduce the same successful bait and ambush defenses from the 2008 conflict - in part due to the lack of higher support. As noted in previous report, they are tending to pull back and avoid decisive engagements once Israel has pushed through its front line defense of border villages. May preserve manpower, but they are leaving behind literally tons of arms and ammunition that they would need for a long term fight, which this is building out to be. How many ammo dumps they have further North into Lebanon are not known (except perhaps by Mossad), so they will be eventually seeing shortages as Israel continues to blow up the major dumps to the north and interdicts resupply from Syria.
Iran –
Iran state media says Tehran’s main airport is open again and flights can resume
***
Al Jazeera anchor’s tweet: Iran conducted its first nuclear test in the desert.
CRITICAL OBSERVATION -
Last week, 4.5 near Tehran and a 4.1 near Ravar, were recorded in Iran. Both had a depth estimated at about 6 miles - too deep for an underground nuke test.
***
The terrorist organization Jaish Ul-Adel threatens to attack Iran.
This is a separatist group fighting for independence of Sistan and Baluchistan Province and greater rights for Baluch people in Iran.
Misc of Note –
More Helene rants - from a FEMA video conference call
FEMA Disaster Preparedness Meeting:
“We should focus our efforts on LGBTQIA people… they struggled before the storm”
“FEMA relief is no longer about getting the greatest good for the greatest amount of people…. It’s about disaster equity.”
Black Swans -
Milton has been upgraded to a hurricane and is forecast to strengthen to a major storm before it hit Florida.