Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
It's certainly possible that the Gaslight Media refuses to mention any recent utterances of this statement, but the only other reference I could find to this was dated 4/2019. Obviously, that action never happened.
Turkey says assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh aims to spread the war in Gaza to the region. “It has been revealed once again that the Netanyahu Government has no intention of achieving peace,” the Turkish MFA said. “If the international community does not take action to stop Israel, our region will face much greater conflicts.“
Preach it to your fellow islamists.
Release all hostages and leave Israel alone and there will be peace.
It disgusts me that everyone is all over Israel's case to *de-escalate* but nobody ever bothers to tell the islamists to stop attacking Israel.
Israel responds when attacked. If you're going to keep poking them with a stick, suck it up and quit whining like the crybabies you are.
Of course the MSM buries stuff like this. They know it’s a game changer and will kill any leftist’s chance to *win* in the elections. They can’t cheat that much.
Yet.
May well be dated 2019, but it clearly shows how far to the left she is. As if it wasn’t clear enough
Is this the rally the press reported had "thousands" of people?
That’s what the say
Thanks, Godzilla.
Good idea to eliminate the next totalitarian up of Mohammed’s madmen. Civilization could take a lesson from Netanyahu.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of Aug 1, 2024
Alert to all - with the impending Iran/Hezbollah retaliatory strikes impending, Iran may use various levels of acts of terror to punish the US. There is no doubt they have the personnel in country and increasing motivation to strike at the US.
***
Three men who are accused of planning out the 9/11 attacks that killed 2,976 innocent people have reached a plea agreement with U.S. prosecutors.
In a statement released on Wednesday, the Office of Military Commissions (OMC) announced that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two other co-conspirators, Walid Muhammad Salih Mubarak Bin Attash and Mustafa Ahmed Adam al Hawsawi, pleaded guilty to planning the largest terrorist attack on U.S. soil.
According to reports, the men pleaded guilty in exchange for life sentences, rather than their originally intended death sentences.
OBSERVATION - These killers should already be worm food by now. Once again, the regime shows its pro-islamic face for this plea deal.
***
The two illegal Jordanian migrants who are charged with trying to breach Marine Corps Base Quantico in May posted thousands of dollars in bail and were allowed to leave federal custody, The Post can exclusively reveal.
Hasan Yousef Hamdan, 32, and Mohammad Khair Dabous, 28, were released from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention despite their immigration status — Hamdan had crossed into the country illegally in April and Dabous had overstayed his student visa and is subject to removal proceedings, law enforcement sources told The Post.
They were arrested on May 3 for trespassing onto the military installation and handed over to ICE officers because of their immigration statuses.
OBSERVATION - This was an example of a classic probing operation to test security of sensitive US bases. And the regime is essentially letting them walk. You can bet that they will melt into the illegal body pool and not see any more courtrooms.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday, but left open the door for the first cuts in the rates in four years.
***
Corporate bankruptcies are on the rise, hitting levels last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis of 2008–09.
According to a recent report from credit-rating agency Standard & Poor’s, 75 new corporate bankruptcies were filed in the month of June, indicating an acceleration of filings from already high rates in 2023.
In addition, the agency reported, the 346 bankruptcy filings in the first half of this year exceeded the number for any six-month period over the past 13 years. The agency attributed the increase to higher interest rates, lingering supply-chain issues, and reduced consumer spending.
Companies are finding it harder to stay open in today’s high-rate climate, says Jonathan Carson, co-CEO at Stretto, a bankruptcy technology and case-management services firm.
“Rising interest rates have been the cause of a lot of businesses finding it more difficult to stay open when debt service goes higher and margins are thin,” Carson told The Epoch Times.
OBSERVATION - Counter point to the regime’s claims of a ‘happy days are here again’ economy.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Videos were released yesterday from the area near where the rally attendee was murdered clearly showing Crooks openly running on the roof the the building and setting up for his shots. Again, it becomes clearer and clearer that the SS orchestrated a botched up security perimeter that the shooter IMHO was invited by someone to exploit.
***
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump fired back at Vice President Kamala Harris’ “say it to my face” quip. “This is one of the worst records anywhere,” Trump told rallygoers in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, in a campaign rally speech. “Well, Kamala, let’s go. Challenge accepted. Are you ready? Let’s compare our records, point by point.”
OBSERVATION - Trump should bring a bottle of salad dressing to the debate - and whip it out whenever harris devolves into one of her word salad answers.
***
All over the inter webs, but I’ll note here for the record that Google is deliberately altering its search engine parameters to influence the election.
***
Former President Donald Trump participated in the National Association of Black Journalists convention on Wednesday afternoon.
The interview with a panel of reporters started on a bad note, with one moderator immediately accusing Trump of previous racist attacks.
OBSERVATION - The interview was a trap on multiple levels. Delayed 30 minutes, the ‘journalist’ jumps right into personal attacks and allegation. Trump replied in typical manner, showing that he wasn’t going to be a door mat. The interview ended short of the original hour - because Trump had other engagements to get to and the NABJ wasted 30 minutes getting him on stage. All this served to provide the left with tons of sound bites overnight of how deranged Trump was - included in this was Trump challenging harris’ claims to blackness. Very slick attempt by the left to corner Trump and came close to succeeding.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris has been trying to gain traction on the statements by republicans and especially Trump, that she is a recent ‘convert’ to being black. Two key points. For a sizable portion of her political career she touted her Indian roots, even to the point of heavy leftist media pieces examining her Indian roots (note, not talking about Native Americans here - leaving that to Fauxahauntus).
Second, so she wants to identify as black now. Well then she has to embrace the fact that she is descended from slave owners and that Jamaica does not equal African origins.
***
A federal appeals court has issued an order that blocks all remaining parts of the federal government’s Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) student debt relief plan that weren’t blocked by an earlier lower-court ruling.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024
As with terror threats from Iran increasing with the impending retaliatory strikes against Israel, Iranian cyber warfare in various forms could target the US and other Israeli allies.
Japan –
As part of a major move to counter what the allies view as China becoming more assertive, the defense chiefs and top diplomats of the two nations announced on July 28 that the United States would restructure its command in Japan, giving it a “direct leadership role” over American forces in operational planning during both peacetime and a potential crisis.
In a statement published on July 28, the US State Department stated: “Through a phased approach, the U.S. plans to convert U.S. Forces Japan into a joint force headquarters which will report to the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the U.S. secretary of defense said today following the conclusion of a two-plus-two ministerial meeting in Tokyo.”
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/nuclear-warning-for-japan-chinas-state/#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - Naturally, this didn’t go over well with China, who threatened to respond in the event of any conflict with nuclear weapons.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced the start of the third phase of exercises to practice the use of tactical nuclear weapons, as per Putin’s decision. The military will be working with “Iskander-M” systems during these exercises.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky reports he was working from the frontline for 3 days: at Pokrovsk direction Russian troops attempting to break Ukrainian defenses near Zhelanne, Novohrodivka, Pokrovsk. This is the southern margin of the Ocheretyne salient.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 7 Shahed drones overnight while it appears a drone/missile hit the Dnipro city area.
The first delivery of the F-16 fighter jets from NATO allies has arrived in Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. They have reportedly already flown their first combat missions.
Outlook —
The war in Ukraine is looking more like the red headed stepchild with the potential for a major war in the middle-east and the chaos here in the US as election season kicks into high gear.
The Pokrovsk area is developing into a breakout situation that at worse case could allow Russian to quickly gobble up a large portion of the Donbas.
The F16s are in country - well at least 6 are - and their impacts on the fight may soon be felt in a more significant manner.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More travel alerts issued by countries for their citizens in Lebanon
- Israel takes out more Hezbollah/Hamas/ IRGC commanders
- Ayatollah Khamenei ordered a strike against Israel in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of a Hamas agent in Tehran.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Top Iranian officials will meet the representatives of Iran’s regional allies from Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen on Thursday to discuss potential retaliation against Israel after the killing of the Hamas leader in Tehran, five sources told Reuters
Ynet reporting the Strauss ice cream factory in Acre was instructed by the Home Front Command to halt operations. The plant uses ammonia gas. Other factories using hazardous materials were instructed to empty reservoirs too
Iran has raised the red flag of Revenge on the dome of the Jamkaran mosque.
The funeral for the Chief Political Leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh will take place tomorrow at 8am in downtown Tehran, with him then being transported to Doha in Qatar for burial on Friday.
RUMINT. Israel has sent diplomatic back-channel messages to both Iran and Lebanon, stating that they are willing to go to full-scale war if Iran, Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed groups conduct a retaliatory response which causes significant damage and casualties in Israel.
Netanyahu: ”Today we have targeted all of our enemies…Challenging days are ahead of us, you will need to gather patience and courage… We will not abandon the citizens of the north and will not allow to prolongue their suffering.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Air strikes decreased across Gaza, with artillery being active in the area around Gaza City in the north.
The IDF and the Shin Bet officially confirm this morning the elimination of Muhammad Deif, another Hamas senior leader
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Speaker of Parliament says that Lebanon does not want war, but is ready to defend itself
The U.S. Department of State has just raised their Travel Alert Status for Lebanon from Level 3: Reconsider Travel, to its Highest, Level 4: Do not Travel. With Americans currently in Lebanon told they should “Be Prepared to Shelter-in-Place” due to Rising Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Hezbollah and Iranian militias in the Sayyida Zeinab area in the southern Damascus countryside are completely closing the entrances and exits of the city at the present time
Acting Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran will not give up its right to respond
Clarification has been provided on the Tehran strike by the Mossad. The Mossad’s operatives in Iran fired a pair of Spike NLOS anti-tank missiles at Ismail Haniyeh’s residence in Tehran. The first missile had him explode (hit him in stomach) & the second made sure the job was finished. Spike NLOS has maximum range of 32km and have a dual FPV and IR tracking modes.
Reports indicate that Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces, has been assassination in an attack near the Syrian Capital of Damascus. Hajizadeh is believed to have been the Senior Commander who planned and ordered the Iranian ballistic and cruise missile attack in April against Israel.
Iranian media reporting IRGC “military advisor” Milad Bedi was killed in the strike in Beirut yesterday
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi leadership announce that they will engage Israel in coordination with Iran and Hezbollah.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
German airline Lufthansa temporarily suspends all flights to Israel from this evening until August 8
——— FORECAST ————————-
Many observers not it’s likely that any retaliation by Iran against Israel for his assassination, won’t take place until after Hajizadeh is buried which is scheduled for Friday. This would make Saturday a prime window as it is also the Sabbath for Israel.
OSINT and other analysts are noting intelligence indicators from Iran are they will launch hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel. Larger strike than in April.
Iran, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias and Yemen will likely want to saturate the air defense, enabling some hits to Israel. This increase in numbers is to be expected from the escalation factors of the region. Iran has to organize a much larger strike than April - in order to have any success and not be embarrassed like they were then. Remember, the appearance of strength is crucial to arabs in this region.
Some are speculating that if Israel detects any movement of Iranian missiles, it is highly likely they will take preemptive action. This would be a common sense measure and tactic to throw off Iran’s assault. I’m sure Israel is looking north into Lebanon for similar preparations at rocket and missile launching sites.
Uninterrupted, I would expect the sequence to run in a manner similar to April, with massive drone and cruise missile launches being detected first because they are the slowest and will take time to reach Israel. Then ballistic missile launches timed to hit Israel at the same time as the drones/cruise missiles - designed to overwhelm air defenses.
Hezbollah has greater flexibility due to its closeness to Israel. They may likely launch early, targeting Israeli air defenses, air bases and major facilities / cities to degrade defenses against the Iranian barrage. Hezbollah has the capabilities to launch thousands of rockets per day.
Houthi will throw their rockets/drones in the mix as they see fit. Some of the Iraqi based Iranian militias may also throw some drones and rockets into the mix.
At this stage, it is uncertain if an international coalition of airfares will rise to the skies as they did in April to target the large swarm of drones and cruise missiles. This coalition swatted most of them out of the sky before they reached Israel. Absent such another response, Israel will be very hard pressed to deal with the far greater numbers than in April.
Also uncertain is if Iran has solved the massive failure rate of its ballistic missiles. In April, the vast majority of the missiles failed to even exit the country or even make it very far out side of Iran. In the months since April, Israel most likely has been honing its Arrow and David’s sling systems to fill gaps discovered in the April attack, but will still be hard pressed if Iran’s missiles perform better - even marginally - than last time.
Now that we’ve entered August, the window for the Hezbollah/Lebanon war is opening and Israel may use any action by Hezbollah as the justification to kick it off. Recent weeks have seen Israel ramp up its preps and in the past few days bringing military and other assets to be mobilized. The success of Israeli intelligence in locating and killing key leadership has to indicate that similar details have been obtained on Hezbollah command, control, rocket launchers and storage facilities throughout the nation.
Against Iran, Israel may take the attack to remove the gloves and this round go after key Iranian nuclear facilities and other strategic targets. This would be accomplished by a different weapons set than Israel would be using against Hezbollah, and unlikely to deter either effort. Iran may also be taking this moment to intimate final processing of Uranium and development of a fission device to join the nuclear club. That could give Israel all the more incentive for hitting Iran harder than it did in April.
The final question is will this weekend end in a similar strike / retaliatory strike cycle - far more vicious and aggressive than April but draw short of exploding into a regional war -OR- breakout into the massive Israel/Hezbollah slugfest with portions of Iran smoldering and pondering their next direct attack options. Right now, given the chaos in the US govt - particularly the biden regime - focus on the elections to the exclusions of foreign matters, the needle is pushing towards a growing regional war.
See Iranian threats to US below under Iran
Iran –
Iran has closed its airspace due to “military activity”.
Iran has warned the US through its allies that if they make a mistake, all their assets in the region will will be taken over and struck hard - Al Jarida
OBSERVATION - At this stage I do not think Iran has the capability other than for its Iraqi and Syrian sponsors militias to harass US outposts. The facilities Iran is claiming to threaten and seize would face opposition not only from the US, but host countries. It would jump world into a serious regional war in a near instant. Iran has its hands full addressing Israel, and is speaking tough to try to warn off any US support for Israel as well as any interference with the impending retaliatory attack(s).
Iraq -
Large explosion reported overnight in Baghdad Iraq. Possible another US airstrike on Iranian militia HQs responsible for recent rocket/drone attacks on US forces in eastern Syria/Western Iraq.
Venezuela -
Maduro has launched a wave of arrests of election observers who saw too much and spoke out in public.
OBSERVATION - Protests continue, but lacking more physical force and presence against Maduro, I’m getting the feeling that they are reaching their high water mark and will not achieve the goal of ousting Madura.
Krapt Raunch unDressing?
I would not be surprised to see a terror attack sometime in the next few months.
Yeah, saber rattling... for now. That said, how do you feel about the market meltdown, gold up and national debt going unsustainable..
I fear we are going to ‘get it’ from ALL sides in the near future. :(
I was stashing cash-money to invest, but now I think I’m just going to hold it through 2025. NOTHING is looking good to me right now. :(
All three are coming like a freight train
Windows are closing all over.
Keep your powder dry. ;)
I’ve been thinking that perhaps the best *investment* is durable goods.
If there’s anything you need to fix, buy, maintain, or replace, now would be a good time to do it.
We saw what happened to the supply chain during Covid.
God knows what’s going to happen this election cycle. And if the supply chain is affected, all the money in the world can’t buy what doesn’t exist.
We’ve pretty much done that since Covid-BS19. We have a new truck and the two other vehicles are in good mechanical order, newer tires and batteries, etc. When Beau needs a replacement part, he usually gets two of the same for future use. ;)
We could use a better generator, though. We are at the ‘end of the line’ when it comes to electricity, so repairs to that take a number of hours, minimum. And that’s just a squirrel committing suicide, not even a major storm or blackout. ;)
But, you can’t beat rural living; with all the modern amenities, of course! :)
Abbreviated post today - have a ton of things to get caught up on.
However, the next 24-48 hours could see chaos of epic proportions in the middle east. Things could well hit the fan across the world as aftershocks from the attack ripple outward.
Things are nearing condition RED preparedness until the full extent of the attack and follow on war sort themselves out.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
(FO) According to a recent Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report, U.S. manufacturing activity shrank in July to 46.8 points, the lowest level in eight months.
Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan said the risk that U.S. economic growth will lose momentum and with slower job growth adds to concerns that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut
OBSERVATION - Any rate below 50 is interpreted to indicate contraction of the economy and manufacturing sector in specific.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Anyone monitoring social media should have been hit in the face with the 180 that the MSM and democrat operatives have taken towards biden. For over a year they openly questioned his health, transmitted videos of his diminished mental capabilities and the like - all the way up to when he dropped out of the race. Now, wave the magic wand and biden has turned into the god-emperor doing stupendous things proving him to be the GOAT.
It was a democrat coup folks.
Also notice they are not allowing harris to get into a position where she cannot regurgitate pre-prepared scripts. She has not held one press conference since being christened the party’s presidential candidate. Key example was yesterday when she and biden met the released americans at the air port. She interrupted him and said -
“This is just an extraordinary testament to the importance of having a president who understands the power of diplomacy and understands the strength that rests in understanding the significance of diplomacy,” she said to the press corps.
Again, Trump should bring a bottle of salad dressing with him to the debates - there will be lot of word salad to season.
Ukraine –
Outlook —
The Pokrovsk area is developing into a breakout situation that at worse case could allow Russian to quickly gobble up a large portion of the Donbas. Concerns are slightly lower as the Russian push is starting to encounter more urban areas that will assist Ukraine’s defensed to stiffen up considerably.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Haniyeh was buried today in Qatar
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
The IDF killed the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s deputy head of weapons production, Mohammed al-Jabari, in a targeted intelligence-based operation, the Israeli military said on Friday morning. According to the IDF, Al-Jabari was responsible for financing weapon manufacturing infrastructure for the Islamic Jihad in northern Gaza.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Forgoing a lot of the details in the Israeli / Hamas/ Hezbollah/ Iran war.
The key point is that we are now on hyper-war watch. Haniyeh is buried and is now Friday night middle east time. Sabbath is on for Israel.
The bulk of the analysis I’ve seen continues to indicate that the expected attack by Iran will be similar to that in April - but much larger. Added to this a rocket blitz by Hezbollah as either a common time on target or as a second wave. This could involve multiple thousands of rockets (last report Hezbollah has some 150k rockets stockpiled) Throw in some from Yemen and Iranian militias in Syria/Iraq and this attack grows into the ginormous realm.
The delay in the attack has given US/Britain/France/Saudi Arabia and Jordan time to muster air assets in an effort to duplicate the air defense against the drones and cruise missiles. Persistent reports of US and other western naval flotillas steaming for the west coast of Lebanon / Israel continue.
The USS Teddy Roosevelt is in a dangerous spot in the Persian Gulf. The USS Carl Vinson and the Abraham Lincoln are in the western Pacific, a week or more away from the region.
Barring another April miracle, Israel is going to get hurt this time around. This will trigger the full on war with Hezbollah and attacks on Iraq’s nuclear program. How severe the shocks around the world will be is yet to be seen, depending upon how aggressive Iran and its proxy elements go after the west. Worst case scenario is that Iran expands its attacks against US Naval assets in the Persian Gulf region - specifically the USS Teddy Roosevelt and attempts to close off the Straits of Hormuz. Almost equally hazardous are Iranian drones/cruise missiles and ballistic missiles targeting US militarily facilities in the Gulf region. It makes my head hurt just contemplating how ugly things could get.
Best to top off your gas tanks, check your preps (all of them) and keep situationally aware.
Thanks for the update.
Thanks Godzilla.
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