Replies

Abbreviated post today - have a ton of things to get caught up on.

However, the next 24-48 hours could see chaos of epic proportions in the middle east. Things could well hit the fan across the world as aftershocks from the attack ripple outward.
Things are nearing condition RED preparedness until the full extent of the attack and follow on war sort themselves out.

Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024

(FO) According to a recent Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report, U.S. manufacturing activity shrank in July to 46.8 points, the lowest level in eight months.

Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan said the risk that U.S. economic growth will lose momentum and with slower job growth adds to concerns that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut

OBSERVATION - Any rate below 50 is interpreted to indicate contraction of the economy and manufacturing sector in specific.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Anyone monitoring social media should have been hit in the face with the 180 that the MSM and democrat operatives have taken towards biden. For over a year they openly questioned his health, transmitted videos of his diminished mental capabilities and the like - all the way up to when he dropped out of the race. Now, wave the magic wand and biden has turned into the god-emperor doing stupendous things proving him to be the GOAT.
It was a democrat coup folks.

Also notice they are not allowing harris to get into a position where she cannot regurgitate pre-prepared scripts. She has not held one press conference since being christened the party’s presidential candidate. Key example was yesterday when she and biden met the released americans at the air port. She interrupted him and said -

“This is just an extraordinary testament to the importance of having a president who understands the power of diplomacy and understands the strength that rests in understanding the significance of diplomacy,” she said to the press corps.

Again, Trump should bring a bottle of salad dressing with him to the debates - there will be lot of word salad to season.

Ukraine –

Outlook —

The Pokrovsk area is developing into a breakout situation that at worse case could allow Russian to quickly gobble up a large portion of the Donbas. Concerns are slightly lower as the Russian push is starting to encounter more urban areas that will assist Ukraine’s defensed to stiffen up considerably.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Haniyeh was buried today in Qatar

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

The IDF killed the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s deputy head of weapons production, Mohammed al-Jabari, in a targeted intelligence-based operation, the Israeli military said on Friday morning. According to the IDF, Al-Jabari was responsible for financing weapon manufacturing infrastructure for the Islamic Jihad in northern Gaza.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Forgoing a lot of the details in the Israeli / Hamas/ Hezbollah/ Iran war.

The key point is that we are now on hyper-war watch. Haniyeh is buried and is now Friday night middle east time. Sabbath is on for Israel.

The bulk of the analysis I’ve seen continues to indicate that the expected attack by Iran will be similar to that in April - but much larger. Added to this a rocket blitz by Hezbollah as either a common time on target or as a second wave. This could involve multiple thousands of rockets (last report Hezbollah has some 150k rockets stockpiled) Throw in some from Yemen and Iranian militias in Syria/Iraq and this attack grows into the ginormous realm.

The delay in the attack has given US/Britain/France/Saudi Arabia and Jordan time to muster air assets in an effort to duplicate the air defense against the drones and cruise missiles. Persistent reports of US and other western naval flotillas steaming for the west coast of Lebanon / Israel continue.
The USS Teddy Roosevelt is in a dangerous spot in the Persian Gulf. The USS Carl Vinson and the Abraham Lincoln are in the western Pacific, a week or more away from the region.

Barring another April miracle, Israel is going to get hurt this time around. This will trigger the full on war with Hezbollah and attacks on Iraq’s nuclear program. How severe the shocks around the world will be is yet to be seen, depending upon how aggressive Iran and its proxy elements go after the west. Worst case scenario is that Iran expands its attacks against US Naval assets in the Persian Gulf region - specifically the USS Teddy Roosevelt and attempts to close off the Straits of Hormuz. Almost equally hazardous are Iranian drones/cruise missiles and ballistic missiles targeting US militarily facilities in the Gulf region. It makes my head hurt just contemplating how ugly things could get.

Best to top off your gas tanks, check your preps (all of them) and keep situationally aware.