Iran alert
The Iranian media has just started rebroadcasting the Iran-Iraq war anthem
This part of psyops but also an indicator of pending action. The Iran/iraq war was the last major war Iran was involved in directly.
Still sabbath in Israel
Expecting things to get busy soon.
Ping to above.
When this thing kick off there will be tons of wrong, false and other cloudy information and rumors flying.
I caution even my self to take a deep breath before believing anything the next few days.
Based on Amir Tsarfati’s Telegram feed, Syria is NOT faring well at the moment.
Here’s a link to his Telegram, providing updates as they happen.
https://t.me/s/beholdisraelchannel
I searched the MSM and so far they are not reporting anything.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Relatively quiet on the Antifa / pro Hamas front. However, I expect that when the balloon goes up between Israel and Iran/Hezbollah that islamic groups will hit the streets, initially targeting any Jewish related element (synagogues, schools, businesses, etc)
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of Aug 1, 2024
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Friday overrode a plea agreement reached earlier this week for the accused mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and two other defendants, reinstating them as death penalty cases.
The move comes two days after the military commission at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, announced it had reached plea deals with Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two accused accomplices in the attacks.
He reportedly relived the officer in charge who made the bargain at Gitmo.
OBSERVATION -Probably the only correct thing that Austin has done in his tenure as Defense Secretary.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
(FO) According to a recent Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report, U.S. manufacturing activity shrank in July to 46.8 points, the lowest level in eight months.
Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan said the risk that U.S. economic growth will lose momentum and with slower job growth adds to concerns that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut
OBSERVATION - Any rate below 50 is interpreted to indicate contraction of the economy and manufacturing sector in specific.
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Job growth in the US badly missed expectations in July and the unemployment rate jumped to the highest rate in almost three years.
Employers added 114,000 jobs last month, according to Labor Department data released Friday, far below the Dow Jones estimate of 185,000.
The unemployment rate also edged higher to 4.3 percent - the highest level since October 2021.
IN RELATED - Stock markets in Europe, China and Japan in particular plunged due to fears of a looming US recession.
OBSERVATION - The big concern centers on the Fed maintaining its high prime rate - sucking dollars out of the system for economic growth. It wants a low inflation rate - but a big downside to their policy is that the way they do it is by killing business growth and job creation. The hope being playied on the street is that they will give back a quarter point in September, by which some are sayin it will be too little, too late to prevent a hard crash of the economy.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. announces it’s sending Carrier Strike Group 3 to the Middle East
The USS Abraham Lincoln is one of the aircraft carriers with F-35Cs. Currently in the western Pacific region, it will take the better part of a week to reach Centcom’s AOR, and longer if head to the Med for stationing.
The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt has entered the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran. No definitive word on if it was entering or exiting the Persian Gulf.
Note - USNI has had it in the Persian gulf for a week. Austin in his announcement of reinforcements to the region placed the Lincoln in the Gulf of Oman - suggesting it was an outward passage.
Technically, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) is to relieve the carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and its strike group. However, if conditions deteriorate between Israel and Iran, that tours would likely be extended.
US Defense Secretary orders navy cruisers, destroyers and an additional fighter squadron to the Middle East, Pentagon says - Reuters. Secretary Austin also ordered the deployment of an additional Air Force squadrons and land-based ballistic missile defense batteries to the region, alongside several U.S. Navy cruisers and destroyers that are enroute to the Mediterranean.
No word on where the additional air and naval assets would be coming from.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
The clown show that was the SS in PA continues to get worse now with word via a whistleblower who told Hawley that the acting Secret Service director reduced counter surveillance before Trump shooting. The counter surveillance unit never went to the site, nor maintained a presence during the event. Their purpose was to specifically prevent what happened that day and was one of the critical key players that the powers that be in the SS sidelined.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has appeared to be the leading candidate for the VP slot which is to be announced Tuesday at a harris rally in PA. However, he is suddenly facing a number of media stories that are not too pleasant for him. Most recently, he reportedly left a woman “weeping and in shock” after threatening her on a phone call in 2018, according to an email the woman sent to state lawmakers in 2023, five years after the alleged conversation.
In another instance, he supported the change in the cause of death of a woman who was stabbed 20 times , including the back. Later was ruled a homocide.
Last week, Mike Vereb, a member of Shapiro’s cabinet and a longtime ally to the Pennsylvania Democratic governor, abruptly resigned. A day later, local outlets reported that a former female aide to Vereb alleged that he had sexually harassed and retaliated against her.
OBSERVATION - shapiro’s name is bubbling to the top due to the critical need for harris to carry PA and keep its electoral votes.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024
CISA & FBI issue bulletin that upcoming cyberattacks may “prevent the public from receiving timely information” about the 2024 election.
These same agencies told you: America’s voting machines were never connected to the Internet.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration has put a controversial program that allows tens of thousands of migrants from four nations to fly or travel directly into the U.S. on hold, after a report circulated internally showing significant amounts of fraud in the program.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirmed to Fox News Digital that “out of an abundance of caution,” it has temporarily paused the issuing of advance travel authorizations for the program — which allows up to 30,000 nationals from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela (CHNV) to travel into the U.S. each month and enter legally under the administration’s use of parole if they meet certain conditions.
The only real shock here is that the Biden regime allowed a report on fraud to force them to quit importing “newcomers” into the country on the taxpayer’s dime.
OBSERVATION - Illegal immigration is one issue that almost by itself can torpedo democrat chances in November - to turning off the program early may be an effort to lower the number of areas they can be attacked from on the issue.
Phillipines –
U.S. and Philippine warships rendezvoused near a disputed South China Sea feature to conduct a joint maritime patrol on Wednesday.
USS Mobile (LCS-26) and BRP Ramon Alcaraz (PS-16) met off Leslie Bank, a maritime feature within Manila’s exclusive economic zone and Beijing’s 10-dash line claim. The littoral combat ship and ex-Coast Guard Hamilton-class cutter drilled in bilateral surface operations and communication, with a video released by the Armed Forces of the Philippines claiming that the two vessels took up a patrol formation.
https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1818993925451071562
OBSERVATION - This has been a regional hot spot with Chinese Coast Guard vessels being particularly aggressive against resupply missions to a Philippine Marine outpost at Second Thomas Shoal.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirms overnight attack at ammunition depot at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov region resulting in massive explosions that were heard from as far away as Sibir’ki.
Other operations resulted in several oil depot being attacked in Belgorod, Kursk and Rostov region. Fire at oil depot of state enterprise “Atlas”, supplying military with fuel. Kamensky district of Rostov region
Massive blasts rip through the Russian airbase in Morozovsk, Rostov Russia. Overnight, several drones targeted Morozovsk Air Base in Rostov, Russia...
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Russian Ministry of Defense claims 75 drones were shot down over Oryol, Rostov and Belgorod regions overnight
Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 Shahed drones overnight
Outlook —
Ukraine really hammered Morozovsk airfield overnight and the size of the hit was picked up on thermal satellite imagery commonly used to track wildfires. The whole base appears to have been engulfed after the ammo dump and fuel facilities went up. Russia claims a lot of drone shoot downs, but the extensive damage Ukraine is able to inflict suggests that those claims are exaggerated. Simliar claim can on the Ukraine side though.
So far Russia has held back on major cruise and ballistic missile attacks, relying heavily on the Shahed drones
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- International concerns grow pending reveal of Iran’s retaliatory attack against Israel.
- Western nations along with the US are attempting to rush air and sea power to the region to deter Hezbollah and Iran from expanding the situation into a regional war.
- Israel takes out more Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
US official says they expect an Iranian attack on Israel before the end of the week: WSJ
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Air and artillery strikes scattered throughout Gaza.
The Saudi newspaper al-Sharq Al-Awast: Israel managed to kill Rofi Mushtaha, Sinwar’s friend and the head of the military wing of Hamas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A prominent Hezbollah operative in the terror group’s so-called Southern Front unit was killed in an Israeli drone strike this morning in southern Lebanon, the Israeli army says. The strike in the town of Bazourieh, near the coastal city of Tyre killed Ali Abd Ali.
Unconfirmed, but likely reports of Hezbollah moving out of headquarters in Beirut and clearing out weapons/ammo caches in the city area as well.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
An Israeli raid targeted an irregular crossing point between Syrian territory and the Hermel district in eastern Lebanon. Israel caught a convoy of trucks carrying weapons and munitions to Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon.
Israeli attack on the A-Dabaa airfield in Syria, according to Lebanese channels. Iran commonly uses this airport. The airport received very heavy damage and will likely be out of commission for a while.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Unconfirmed but probable. Jordan reportedly states it will intercept and shoot down any missiles or drones that enter its airspace and attack Israel. They did same in April.
Airlines are cancelling flights to cities throughout the region - particularly Tel Aviv, Beirut and Tehran.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Sabbath is finishing up in Israel with no Iranian attack. Speculation is running wild on timing, scope and size of the attack. I think Israel may have given them pause when they warned that iranian petroleum and nuclear facilities will be included on the retaliatory hit list should any damage / deaths occur in Israel.
The longer Iran delays, the better chance western nations can get the reinforcements into the region to deter Iran from exploding the area into a major, regional war. In part by intercepting the expected hundreds of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles like last time in April. Looks like the Saudi’s and Jordan will once again join in shooting down these systems - seen as violating their airspace and territorial integrity. Besides, neither country has any love for the mullahs in Tehran.
Israel has warned Hezbollah (and indirectly Iran) that is has weapons they haven’t put into use yet, but will. The biggest are the Israeli ballistic missiles - nuclear capable. Another the cruise missile capable submarine fleet. Even potentially an EMP weapon. And who knows what the Israeli version of the skunk works may have up its sleeve. In fact, depending upon the severity of damage to Israel, I would not rule out a major leadership strike against Iran. Mossad certainly has the upper hand in the espionage front in Tehran, and probably has where the mullahs lay their heads GPS’s to the nearest 1/10th of a foot.
One last observation. Should Iran delay until later next week, it opens itself up to increased intelligence collection that can tip their hand to their operations. Mossad has their eyes and ears out. Western nations have their high tech assets looking hard. An Iranian OPSEC stumble could make window of opportunity for an Israeli spoiling attack.
All in all , a very complicated scenario when looking at OSINT sources and trying to war game things out.
Iran –
Iran arrests more than two dozen senior intelligence, military officials and staff of the IRGC guest house where Hamas leader was killed in a sweeping crackdown for the security breach
NOTE -The story has changed from a drone strike to pre-planted explosives that were set off remotely once confirmation the Hamas leader was in the residence. The bomb setters were bought off by Mossad and left the country after placing the bombs.
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France calls on its citizens to immediately leave Iran
Misc of Note –
Some may say what’s the big deal about Israel/Iran? We won’t get bombed here.
Sadly, that is a statement out of ignorance of the past and the dynamics of the present. Secondary shockwaves can hit the country via terrorism, cyber attacks, oil disruptions, sinking of an aircraft carrier, riots etc. Add Tertiary affects to the current political and economic situation and you have the potential for a major bovine excrement hitting the fan scenario.
Each has to assess these threats and customize them to their specific location. My preparations and status of alert is not going to be the same as a FREEPER in Las Angeles or Kansas City. Some areas are more vulnerable to these potential secondary actions. Many, if not most, are compounded because they will hit high population metropolitan centers the hardest. Here in the predominately rural Redoubt country, if Iranian jihadis decide to get froggy, they will be easy to pick out from the general population and soon find that many have been waiting to play cowboys and jihadis for some time now. Fuel shortages and cyber assaults will affect all, but your reliance on either can be controlled by storage or reducing reliance now on your car or internet. Having backup comms is also important especially if the cell and internet networks drop. My family here has back up plans with both ham and CB assets.
How do you discern your threats? One solution I can offer it to sit down as a family / mutual assistance group and war game through a list of scenarios. My family calls it ‘apocatalk’ Stay away from rabbit holes but frankly review impacts - and shake off normalcy bias of ‘that can’t happen here’ If the evidences show otherwise, then you may need to address it depending on severity.
Again, everyone is in a unique position and a one size fits all plan is not practical. Planning and knowledge at this stage can help make up for some lack of physical supples - but should n’t be and excuse to ignore those areas.
Plan for the worst, pray for the best.