CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Relatively quiet on the Antifa / pro Hamas front. However, I expect that when the balloon goes up between Israel and Iran/Hezbollah that islamic groups will hit the streets, initially targeting any Jewish related element (synagogues, schools, businesses, etc)
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of Aug 1, 2024
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Friday overrode a plea agreement reached earlier this week for the accused mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and two other defendants, reinstating them as death penalty cases.
The move comes two days after the military commission at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, announced it had reached plea deals with Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two accused accomplices in the attacks.
He reportedly relived the officer in charge who made the bargain at Gitmo.
OBSERVATION -Probably the only correct thing that Austin has done in his tenure as Defense Secretary.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
(FO) According to a recent Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report, U.S. manufacturing activity shrank in July to 46.8 points, the lowest level in eight months.
Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan said the risk that U.S. economic growth will lose momentum and with slower job growth adds to concerns that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut
OBSERVATION - Any rate below 50 is interpreted to indicate contraction of the economy and manufacturing sector in specific.
***
Job growth in the US badly missed expectations in July and the unemployment rate jumped to the highest rate in almost three years.
Employers added 114,000 jobs last month, according to Labor Department data released Friday, far below the Dow Jones estimate of 185,000.
The unemployment rate also edged higher to 4.3 percent - the highest level since October 2021.
IN RELATED - Stock markets in Europe, China and Japan in particular plunged due to fears of a looming US recession.
OBSERVATION - The big concern centers on the Fed maintaining its high prime rate - sucking dollars out of the system for economic growth. It wants a low inflation rate - but a big downside to their policy is that the way they do it is by killing business growth and job creation. The hope being playied on the street is that they will give back a quarter point in September, by which some are sayin it will be too little, too late to prevent a hard crash of the economy.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. announces it’s sending Carrier Strike Group 3 to the Middle East
The USS Abraham Lincoln is one of the aircraft carriers with F-35Cs. Currently in the western Pacific region, it will take the better part of a week to reach Centcom’s AOR, and longer if head to the Med for stationing.
The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt has entered the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran. No definitive word on if it was entering or exiting the Persian Gulf.
Note - USNI has had it in the Persian gulf for a week. Austin in his announcement of reinforcements to the region placed the Lincoln in the Gulf of Oman - suggesting it was an outward passage.
Technically, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) is to relieve the carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and its strike group. However, if conditions deteriorate between Israel and Iran, that tours would likely be extended.
US Defense Secretary orders navy cruisers, destroyers and an additional fighter squadron to the Middle East, Pentagon says - Reuters. Secretary Austin also ordered the deployment of an additional Air Force squadrons and land-based ballistic missile defense batteries to the region, alongside several U.S. Navy cruisers and destroyers that are enroute to the Mediterranean.
No word on where the additional air and naval assets would be coming from.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
The clown show that was the SS in PA continues to get worse now with word via a whistleblower who told Hawley that the acting Secret Service director reduced counter surveillance before Trump shooting. The counter surveillance unit never went to the site, nor maintained a presence during the event. Their purpose was to specifically prevent what happened that day and was one of the critical key players that the powers that be in the SS sidelined.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has appeared to be the leading candidate for the VP slot which is to be announced Tuesday at a harris rally in PA. However, he is suddenly facing a number of media stories that are not too pleasant for him. Most recently, he reportedly left a woman “weeping and in shock” after threatening her on a phone call in 2018, according to an email the woman sent to state lawmakers in 2023, five years after the alleged conversation.
In another instance, he supported the change in the cause of death of a woman who was stabbed 20 times , including the back. Later was ruled a homocide.
Last week, Mike Vereb, a member of Shapiro’s cabinet and a longtime ally to the Pennsylvania Democratic governor, abruptly resigned. A day later, local outlets reported that a former female aide to Vereb alleged that he had sexually harassed and retaliated against her.
OBSERVATION - shapiro’s name is bubbling to the top due to the critical need for harris to carry PA and keep its electoral votes.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024
CISA & FBI issue bulletin that upcoming cyberattacks may “prevent the public from receiving timely information” about the 2024 election.
These same agencies told you: America’s voting machines were never connected to the Internet.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration has put a controversial program that allows tens of thousands of migrants from four nations to fly or travel directly into the U.S. on hold, after a report circulated internally showing significant amounts of fraud in the program.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirmed to Fox News Digital that “out of an abundance of caution,” it has temporarily paused the issuing of advance travel authorizations for the program — which allows up to 30,000 nationals from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela (CHNV) to travel into the U.S. each month and enter legally under the administration’s use of parole if they meet certain conditions.
The only real shock here is that the Biden regime allowed a report on fraud to force them to quit importing “newcomers” into the country on the taxpayer’s dime.
OBSERVATION - Illegal immigration is one issue that almost by itself can torpedo democrat chances in November - to turning off the program early may be an effort to lower the number of areas they can be attacked from on the issue.
Phillipines –
U.S. and Philippine warships rendezvoused near a disputed South China Sea feature to conduct a joint maritime patrol on Wednesday.
USS Mobile (LCS-26) and BRP Ramon Alcaraz (PS-16) met off Leslie Bank, a maritime feature within Manila’s exclusive economic zone and Beijing’s 10-dash line claim. The littoral combat ship and ex-Coast Guard Hamilton-class cutter drilled in bilateral surface operations and communication, with a video released by the Armed Forces of the Philippines claiming that the two vessels took up a patrol formation.
https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1818993925451071562
OBSERVATION - This has been a regional hot spot with Chinese Coast Guard vessels being particularly aggressive against resupply missions to a Philippine Marine outpost at Second Thomas Shoal.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirms overnight attack at ammunition depot at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov region resulting in massive explosions that were heard from as far away as Sibir’ki.
Other operations resulted in several oil depot being attacked in Belgorod, Kursk and Rostov region. Fire at oil depot of state enterprise “Atlas”, supplying military with fuel. Kamensky district of Rostov region
Massive blasts rip through the Russian airbase in Morozovsk, Rostov Russia. Overnight, several drones targeted Morozovsk Air Base in Rostov, Russia...
.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims 75 drones were shot down over Oryol, Rostov and Belgorod regions overnight
Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 Shahed drones overnight
Outlook —
Ukraine really hammered Morozovsk airfield overnight and the size of the hit was picked up on thermal satellite imagery commonly used to track wildfires. The whole base appears to have been engulfed after the ammo dump and fuel facilities went up. Russia claims a lot of drone shoot downs, but the extensive damage Ukraine is able to inflict suggests that those claims are exaggerated. Simliar claim can on the Ukraine side though.
So far Russia has held back on major cruise and ballistic missile attacks, relying heavily on the Shahed drones
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- International concerns grow pending reveal of Iran’s retaliatory attack against Israel.
- Western nations along with the US are attempting to rush air and sea power to the region to deter Hezbollah and Iran from expanding the situation into a regional war.
- Israel takes out more Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
US official says they expect an Iranian attack on Israel before the end of the week: WSJ
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Air and artillery strikes scattered throughout Gaza.
The Saudi newspaper al-Sharq Al-Awast: Israel managed to kill Rofi Mushtaha, Sinwar’s friend and the head of the military wing of Hamas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A prominent Hezbollah operative in the terror group’s so-called Southern Front unit was killed in an Israeli drone strike this morning in southern Lebanon, the Israeli army says. The strike in the town of Bazourieh, near the coastal city of Tyre killed Ali Abd Ali.
Unconfirmed, but likely reports of Hezbollah moving out of headquarters in Beirut and clearing out weapons/ammo caches in the city area as well.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
An Israeli raid targeted an irregular crossing point between Syrian territory and the Hermel district in eastern Lebanon. Israel caught a convoy of trucks carrying weapons and munitions to Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon.
Israeli attack on the A-Dabaa airfield in Syria, according to Lebanese channels. Iran commonly uses this airport. The airport received very heavy damage and will likely be out of commission for a while.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Unconfirmed but probable. Jordan reportedly states it will intercept and shoot down any missiles or drones that enter its airspace and attack Israel. They did same in April.
Airlines are cancelling flights to cities throughout the region - particularly Tel Aviv, Beirut and Tehran.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Sabbath is finishing up in Israel with no Iranian attack. Speculation is running wild on timing, scope and size of the attack. I think Israel may have given them pause when they warned that iranian petroleum and nuclear facilities will be included on the retaliatory hit list should any damage / deaths occur in Israel.
The longer Iran delays, the better chance western nations can get the reinforcements into the region to deter Iran from exploding the area into a major, regional war. In part by intercepting the expected hundreds of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles like last time in April. Looks like the Saudi’s and Jordan will once again join in shooting down these systems - seen as violating their airspace and territorial integrity. Besides, neither country has any love for the mullahs in Tehran.
Israel has warned Hezbollah (and indirectly Iran) that is has weapons they haven’t put into use yet, but will. The biggest are the Israeli ballistic missiles - nuclear capable. Another the cruise missile capable submarine fleet. Even potentially an EMP weapon. And who knows what the Israeli version of the skunk works may have up its sleeve. In fact, depending upon the severity of damage to Israel, I would not rule out a major leadership strike against Iran. Mossad certainly has the upper hand in the espionage front in Tehran, and probably has where the mullahs lay their heads GPS’s to the nearest 1/10th of a foot.
One last observation. Should Iran delay until later next week, it opens itself up to increased intelligence collection that can tip their hand to their operations. Mossad has their eyes and ears out. Western nations have their high tech assets looking hard. An Iranian OPSEC stumble could make window of opportunity for an Israeli spoiling attack.
All in all , a very complicated scenario when looking at OSINT sources and trying to war game things out.
Iran –
Iran arrests more than two dozen senior intelligence, military officials and staff of the IRGC guest house where Hamas leader was killed in a sweeping crackdown for the security breach
NOTE -The story has changed from a drone strike to pre-planted explosives that were set off remotely once confirmation the Hamas leader was in the residence. The bomb setters were bought off by Mossad and left the country after placing the bombs.
***
France calls on its citizens to immediately leave Iran
Misc of Note –
Some may say what’s the big deal about Israel/Iran? We won’t get bombed here.
Sadly, that is a statement out of ignorance of the past and the dynamics of the present. Secondary shockwaves can hit the country via terrorism, cyber attacks, oil disruptions, sinking of an aircraft carrier, riots etc. Add Tertiary affects to the current political and economic situation and you have the potential for a major bovine excrement hitting the fan scenario.
Each has to assess these threats and customize them to their specific location. My preparations and status of alert is not going to be the same as a FREEPER in Las Angeles or Kansas City. Some areas are more vulnerable to these potential secondary actions. Many, if not most, are compounded because they will hit high population metropolitan centers the hardest. Here in the predominately rural Redoubt country, if Iranian jihadis decide to get froggy, they will be easy to pick out from the general population and soon find that many have been waiting to play cowboys and jihadis for some time now. Fuel shortages and cyber assaults will affect all, but your reliance on either can be controlled by storage or reducing reliance now on your car or internet. Having backup comms is also important especially if the cell and internet networks drop. My family here has back up plans with both ham and CB assets.
How do you discern your threats? One solution I can offer it to sit down as a family / mutual assistance group and war game through a list of scenarios. My family calls it ‘apocatalk’ Stay away from rabbit holes but frankly review impacts - and shake off normalcy bias of ‘that can’t happen here’ If the evidences show otherwise, then you may need to address it depending on severity.
Again, everyone is in a unique position and a one size fits all plan is not practical. Planning and knowledge at this stage can help make up for some lack of physical supples - but should n’t be and excuse to ignore those areas.
Plan for the worst, pray for the best.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
The National Football League (NFL) has announced the implementation of mandatory facial recognition software across all 32 teams. This decision comes after a trial run last year at select venues, including Cleveland Browns Stadium, and will officially kick off with this summer’s preseason games.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/big-brother-is-watching-nfl-announces-mandatory-facial/
OBSERVATION - Biometric identification is a key component to the WEF’s / globalism controls of the individual. Though relatively small scale, this action is one of many that serves to begin to condition the masses to such surveillance.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
An uptick in violence by pro-hamas/pro-islam elements yesterday that may be linked to violence in Britain and Ireland.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
The US economy may have just entered a recession.
According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June and from recent lows of 3.4% in April 2023.
The increase officially triggered the Sahm Rule — a recession indicator developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm — which says that the US economy is in a downturn when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5% from its 12-month low.
The gauge has a perfect track record through at least the last nine recessions.
However, one job market indicator that isn’t influenced by participation rates — year-over-year growth in unemployed persons — also suggests that the US economy is in recessionary territory. The number of unemployed people has now grown by 14.5% year-over-year. Over at least the last 11 instances that this has happened, the economy has been in recession.
OBSERVATION - Add these numbers to the numbers from the rest of the economy and the picture is not good. It is in fact - scary.
Further, with three months before the election, a recession will be harder and harder to cover up by democrats as key economic elements are swayed more by money and less by politics and will have to swing into self protection mode.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Secretary of Defense has ordered the deployment of another squadron of F-22 fighter jets to the Middle East. No word yet on which squadron has been designated for deployment.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Rallies continue as the push towards November grows more intense.
PA Gov Shapario is being exposed by left media with a huge closet full of skeletons - nasty skeletons - as rumors of his being the VP selection rise.
The sudden swap of democrat presidential candidates has thrown some of the congressional and senate contests into a scurry as at risk democrats are seemingly reluctant to hitch their wagon to the harris star, but their support for her via biden could be a downfall in its self.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris accuses trump of avoiding a debate, trump counters with the previously scheduled presidential debate that was scheduled with biden, which harris is running from.
Harris campaign discovered the ‘chicken’ campaign can cut both ways and it is hurting her more than trump.
harris’ handlers are struggling to keep her mouth shut out side of prescripted addresses - and to avoid off the cuff remarks. Her word salad at the airport welcoming back Russia prisoners is an example. So far, no open press conference since she was anointed democrat candidate.
Video has appeared of harris explaining the ‘cloud’ for data storage. SMH, better not hope for a sunny day or you may not be able to access your data.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively slow night, Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 Shahed drones overnight.
2 Kh-59 missiles were launched towards Myrhorod district of Poltava region, damaging a rail line.
Outlook —
Dynamically, the war is at a slog. Russia is focusing more resources on the Ocheretyne region due to Ukraine weaknesses exposed there. Russia shows no signs of letting up from the offensive, though action across many of the areas of the front have declined, reflection reduction of resources to the Ocheretyne area.
Europe / NATO General –
Low grade civil war is breaking out in portions of Great Britain and N Ireland. Yesterday, mobs of muslim immigrants armed with clubs, knives and axes clashed with native brits, with the police ‘protecting’ the moslems. Violence began after a 17 yr old moslem immigrant murdered three children - on top of numerous other acts of violence against native brits. Moslems openly established ‘patrols’ that went through the streets seeking any brits and beating them up. Numerous injuries and many arrests (primarily against anti-immigration elements) were reported.
Similar, violent pushback in N Ireland inspired a very unusual alliance between the Irish catholics and British protestants standing arm in arm to oppose the immigration onslaught. Construction of immigrant specific housing has been torched in recent days.
OBSERVATION - Moslem immigrants believe that the social conditions for a jihadi take over of Britain are ripe and are entering the next phase of the general conquest plan. They are becoming increasingly violent with the govt protecting that violence and arresting any opposition. This weekend’s bloodshed is only the start and will likely get far worse.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to make preparations for the anticipated Iranian / Hezbollah attack.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Rumors continue as to the timing of the expected drone/missile attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel. Some are now speculating that the attack will occur as early as Monday.
Numerous countries calling for citizens to leave Lebanon and Iran.
The Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations told CBS News in an exclusive on Friday that the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah would begin deliberately targeting Israeli civilians – claiming that it had not done so until now. Hezbollah has reportedly decided to increase its targets in attacks in response to the assassination of its commander, Fuad Shukr.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli army has uncovered an unusually large tunnel on the Gaza-Egypt border area, big enough for vehicles to pass through. According to the military, the tunnel is around 3 meters tall. It was located along the so-called Philadelphi Route last week
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
About 50- 60 rockets were launched from southern Lebanon towards the Upper Galilee. They were intercepted by iron dome missiles. Attack most likely in retaliation for the drone strikes that took out more ranking Hezbollah leadership over the past couple days.
——— FORECAST ————————-
When will the other shoe drop - that is the question regarding Iran’s threatened attack. Many pundits view the attack coming sooner, rather than later. However, those favoring the latter view think Iran may keep Israel on high alert for an attack for a prolonged period to increase the anxiety in the public.
An early attack would be viewed as a show of strength - a critical measure in the arab world for maintaining ‘face’. Risk with early - failure of systems and tactics.
Delay as a psyops measure will work to a limited degree but may well backfire as Israel (and the world) secure their preparations to the point that any attack will then largely fail (or even face preemptive strikes).
RUMINT. Some analysts suggest that Iran plans to attack Israel on Tisha B’Av which begins on August 12 and ends on August 13. On Tisha B’Av, Jews lament the destruction of the first and second Temples. During the annual event, there is fasting, mourning and a practice of self-denial. Will Iran be able to wait 10 day’s more before acting?
Strategically, Iran seeks to prevent / deter Israel from future attacks. So that the scale of the impending attack must be sufficient to hurt Israel. For reference, the April attack saw 300 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles fired with only one getting thru causing a minor injury.
Personally, I still expect the attack to kick off sooner than later. I would be surprised if it doesn’t happen by the end of the week.
Iran –
The Mossad penetrated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s most trusted protective service, hiring more than one of their agents to plant that bomb as well as others in a compound considered the most secure in Tehran:
Iran has arrested more than two dozen people, including senior intelligence officers, military officials and staff workers at a military-run guesthouse in Tehran, in response to a huge and humiliating security breach that enabled the assassination of a top leader of Hamas, according to two Iranians familiar with the investigation.
https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2024/08/03/boom-contd-mole-hunt-raging-in-tehran-n3792644
OBSERVATION - While Iran seems to be trying to reboot the short range missile story, this appears to be the real macon. In yesterday’s discussion on TM, Oorang posted an observation by Amir Tsarfati that makes sense in this regard -
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?page=765#765
Essentially, the legitimacy of iran’s retaliatory strike is undermined since no Israeli aircraft or even short ranged rocket was used. To go one step further, as metmom noted, the mullahs fear that other bombs may have been planted and will be detonated should Iran launch another large strike - and they want to clean house, so to speak, before launching such an attack.