Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) is a nutcase. You’re right - lots of hysteria and fear mongering. My suggestion? That he try it - then he’ll discover the limitations of the SC ruling.
Leftists are despicable excuses for human beings.
Oh, I just thought of one.
The People’s Constitutional Republic of America.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
NOTE - I mis-dated the Netanyahu speech to this month.
***
More leftist calls for the assassination of trump, conservative members of the USSC and other republicans by elements of the left (note - it isn’t just the fringe elements making these demands any more)
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
July 4th celebrations - keep your head on a swivel
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
According to a stunning new survey that was just released, an annual income of at least $186,000 a year is required in order to feel financially secure in the United States today. Unfortunately, only 6 percent of U.S. adults make that kind of money. So we have a major problem on our hands.
From CBS News...
Americans have a specific annual income in mind for what it would take to feel financially secure, according to a new survey from Bankrate. The magic number? $186,000 per year.
Currently, only 6% of U.S. adults make that amount or more, Bankrate said. The median family income falls between $51,500 and $86,000, according to the latest federal data. Achieving financial security means being able to pay your bills while having enough left over to make some discretionary purchases and put money away for the future, the personal finance site said.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=7058
***
The Biden administration completed the sale of 1 million barrels of gasoline from the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve, the White House said in a statement shared with The Epoch Times on July 2.
Last month, the government announced it would release 42 million gallons of gas from storage facilities in Maine and New Jersey to help lower pump prices heading into the typically busy summer driving season.
OBSERVATION - I think we all know by now that this is a deliberate action to place the country in a dangerous readiness situation. Sell offs of the SPR during 2022 did little to nothing to bring prices down, but did leave us vulnerable to oil cut offs from overseas. Now the gasoline reserve will place north-easterners under threat should oil pipelines and sources to the south get cut off, most commonly by severe storms.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Army and Navy have recently completed a flight test of a hypersonic missile as the United States seeks to keep pace with its geopolitical rivals—China and Russia—in developing hypersonic capabilities.
The military performed the flight test from the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Kauai, Hawaii, to gather data on the overall performance of the long-range hypersonic weapon (LRHW), the Pentagon said on June 28.
The LRHW is equipped with the Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) All-Up-Round missile—which consists of a two-stage solid rocket motor booster and a hypersonic glide body—and the Army’s canister.
A recent report by the Congressional Research Service stated that the U.S. Army’s LRHW, dubbed the Dark Eagle, can travel at more than 3,800 miles per hour and is capable of reaching “the top of the Earth’s atmosphere.”
The weapon system can maintain a position “just beyond the range of air and missile defense systems” until it is ready to strike, according to the report.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Pfizer, Moderna, and the mRNA gang are unleashing a new “vaccine” enterprise upon the public, and U.S. Government Health is all too happy to assist in the operation.
On Tuesday, The Biden Administration awarded Moderna with a $176 million contract purposed with developing a vaccine for bird flu. It serves as a much needed lifeline for Moderna, because after its failed mRNA Covid-19 gambit, the $45 billion company has once again found itself without any functioning products. However, given Moderna’s partnerships with the American government, the company has been able to sustain itself through regulatory capture.
https://www.dossier.today/p/pfizer-and-moderna-are-rolling-out
OBSERVATION - Expect growing pressure to pre-vaccinate the population in advance of the bird flu plandemic.
***
The second international Bird Flu Summit is taking place in a few months. It is proclaimed to be a global event that brings together experts, innovators and stakeholders to address the pressing concerns surrounding avian influenza. The summit aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange to combat the spread of bird flu and its impact on human and animal health, as well as the global economy.
In line with the World Health Organisation’s vision, the conference is taking a One Health approach. The outcome of the first Bird Flu Summit was that vaccination is a critical tool to mitigate the spread of bird flu. We can expect the outcome of the second to be the same.
The First International Avian Influenza Summit was held on 16-17 October 2023, at the University of Arkansas, USA, with a focus on research, policy, and industry collaboration. At the gathering, 23 speakers made presentations over the two days and 1,842 people registered as participants from 81 countries.
Another outcome of the 2023 Summit was to hold another summit on bird flu, this time, again unsurprisingly, to incorporate the nefarious One Health ideology. The second bird flu summit, ‘The International Avian Influenza and One Health Emerging Issues Summit’, is scheduled to take place from 30 September to 3 October 2024 at the Don Tyson Centre for Agricultural Sciences, in Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA.
“Avian influenza has adapted to mammalian species, and it is now endemic in the United States,” said Tellez-Isaias who is one of 14 organisers for the summit, hosted by the Division of Agriculture and the University of Arkansas Dale Bumpers College of Agricultural, Food and Life Sciences.
https://expose-news.com/2024/07/02/pandemic-vaccine-industry-pushes-for-bird-flu-vaccinations/
OBSERVATION - They are trying to make bird flu the next major pandemic by hook or by crook.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Shuffling of the card deck by democrats/liberals looking desperately for a replacement to biden have come up with a ridiculous poll that places - hold your hats - Vice President Kamala Harris performing slightly better than Biden in a matchup with former President Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee. Yes, you heard it right, the least popular VP in history out performing biden. Heck, she even outperforms Mike 0bama!
harris trails Trump by just two points – 47%-45% – in a hypothetical matchup, according to the poll.
Now add into this the very powerful black block in the DNC warning that replacing biden with anyone other than a black female will torpedo its 2024 campaign efforts. Evidence of some serious, knife in the back, red lines being drawn.
NOTE - Don’t put much faith in any polls. This poll is likely skewed by the black caucus related DNC wing to leverage support for harris - who’s largely been kept out of initial rumination on a biden replacement.
IN RELATED, lets throw some more pasta on the fridge to see what sticks shall we . . . .
Former first lady Michelle Obama is the only hypothetical presidential candidate alternative that can beat presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, a post-debate Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/poll-reuters-ipsos/2024/07/03/id/1171072/
BOTTOM LINE - the appearance of these polls server the purpose to try to leverage biden out of the candidate slot by showing the democrats can still win in November and secondly, sticking with a ‘black’ and female candidate is the winning number.
***
The July 11 sentencing of former President Donald J. Trump is being delayed until September 18 after two U.S. Supreme Court decisions. In a letter sent to Judge Juan Merchan on Tuesday, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg said his office was not opposed to a motion by attorneys for the former president asking to delay the sentencing hearing.
In his order, Merchan adds an interesting note - “if such is still necessary” in regards to the sentencing. Charlie Kirk on a post on “X” breaks out Merchan’s predicament -
Charlie Kirk notes on “X”. The Supreme Court has ruled that presidents are criminally immune for their core constitutional powers and presumptively immune for their official acts as president.
- As an extension of this, the Court also ruled that a president’s official acts cannot be used as evidence of criminal conduct in his private acts.
- Even though the NY case concerned actions Trump took before becoming president, Alvin Bragg’s team repeatedly and aggressively introduced evidence from President Trump’s official acts as president: His presidential tweets, his discussion of presidential business in the Oval Office, and so on. They didn’t have to do this, but they were in such a frenzy to attack Trump that they did it anyway
- If New York introduced unconstitutional evidence during their trial of Trump, then there is no option but to order a new trial with that evidence excluded.
NOTE that this is on TOP of all the other illegal actions taken by Merchan through the course of the trial.
Sept 18 will place any sentencing past the RNC convention and would add to the pressure of jailing a declared candidate for the presidency. At this stage, odds are increasing that Merchan will be forced to rule a mistrial, nullifying the indictments.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Reports that Hunter biden is taking a leading role in WH meetings is roiling staff. he is a convicted 3 time felon of gun charges and his presence with joe in high level WH meetings is a security risk at at the very least. This follows reports that Jill and hunter have effectively isolated joe from staffers, particularly those who would encourage him to step down from the presidential race. Such aggressive handling further suggests that not only is joe not in possession of his facilities, he isn’t in possession of the presidency.
***
One other poll to add to the ones under Political Front above -
Most U.S. voters — 75% — say that the Democratic Party will have a better chance at holding on to the White House if it replaces President Joe Biden as its nominee, according to a new CNN poll released Tuesday.
The numbers were driven by Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters, who said the party has a better chance of winning with someone other than Biden ( 56%), with 43% saying the party’s chances are better with him, reported CNN.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/cnn-poll-biden-trump/2024/07/02/id/1170996/
China –
China sailed its aircraft carrier CNS Shandong (17) into the South China Sea, as close as 230 miles from the Philippine main island of Luzon. Meanwhile, PLAN ships have been operating around Japan over the past few days, according to Japan Joint Staff Office releases.
Satellite imagery showed Shandong sailing within 230 miles of Luzon on June 26. The Philippine Navy has downplayed the carrier’s presence. Philippines news channel GMA News reported that in a Tuesday press briefing, Philippine Navy spokesperson Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad said the Philippine Navy was aware of the carrier and also of the China Coast Guard’s 12,000-ton CG5901 cutter in the Philippine exclusive economic zone. Trinidad said the presence of both ships was permissible under international law.
“They are authorized under UNCLOS either through freedom of navigation or right of innocent passage. Rest assured the Philippine Navy and the Armed Forces will continue monitoring the vast expanse of our maritime domain,” Trinidad said.
Russia -
*****
Russia is pressuring Israel in order to prevent them from transferring Patriot missile systems to Ukraine. Basically their threat is don’t do it or else. The “or else’ part is very vague.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
11 aerial targets were shot down by Ukrainian air defense this morning. Targeted areas included Dnipro city, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and the Odesa region.
Ukraine sea drone attack was reported in Novorosiysk, Russia by local authorities.
Reports from Kursk Russia, that the Central Aviation Technical Base is on fire after a series of explosions.
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims occupation of Novyy district of Chasiv Yar.
Outlook —
Institute for the Study of Warfare (ISW) is saying that it appears that Russian higher command in the Chasiv Yar / Avdiivka fronts are trying to develop a higher level of maneuver against Ukraine forces, similar to that which successfully drove the offensive in the region earlier in the spring. While the larger scheme of maneuver that appears to be forming is good on paper, execution at the tactical level is abysmally poor. This is due in part to the massive casualties that have been inflicted on Russian forces in the attacks to date. To further their advance, it appears that the bulk of the regional reserves have been committed to the area, potentially reflected in the minor Russian claim of actually occupying Novyy district of Chasiv Yar. Russia has been making similar claims over the past months as Chasiv Yar is one of the jewels putin has specifically called for Russia forces to capture.
Again, resupply of Ukraine forces with artillery and other munitions will make Russia’s efforts on this portion of the front even more difficult, because the earlier gains were when Ukraine forces were at critically low munitions levels and had to tactically retreat or be completely defeated. Those conditions are no longer in play.
The other big story continues to be Ukraine’s continuation of the ‘deep war’ against Russian targets. European countries are increasingly giving Ukraine the OK to not only hit where ever in Crimea, but deeper into Russia proper. The deepening expansion using NATO systems versus Ukraine developed drones/missiles is a huge step upward in potential war escalation.
Europe / NATO General –
Tensions in France continue at a high level as the nation prepares for the second round of elections this coming Sunday.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas tunnel network is so extensive it could take years to fully neutralize.
- New rumors that Israel’s assault into S Lebanon could be as early now as the end of July.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Brigadier General Amir Avivi, chairman of the IDSF and former commander of the IDF School of Engineering, spoke to Israel National News - Arutz Sheva on the continued clearing of Hamas tunnels even now, almost nine months since the outbreak of the Gaza war.
Avivi started by talking of significant information that must be taken into account: “The size and strength of Hamas are similar to ISIS at its peak. At the time there were about 35-40 thousand ISIS combat soldiers, who were much less skilled than Hamas, with much less significant infrastructure. They had many volunteers from all over the world and ISIS faced an entire coalition of Americans, Russians and Europeans, who fought there for years and razed the cities to the ground.”
“We have to understand that it will take time to eliminate this monster that was created in Gaza,” says Avivi and says that even after six weeks of fighting in Operation Defensive Shield, during the operation itself and in taking over the cities, the IDF continued to operate in the area for about five years to achieve the required results. We must be patient and, above all, make sure that conditions do not allow such a monster to rise up again in Gaza in the future. We need to internalize this lesson and stop the madness that allows terrorist armies to rise up around us.”
To our question how much longer he estimates we will continue to uncover tunnels and destroy them throughout the Gaza Strip, Avivi responds saying that, “we still have not yet discovered a very large part of the tunnels. This is a process that will take years to clear. Much more work is needed. In this kind of fighting there is the initial stage where we have to break down the enemy and take control. But the longer part of the process is clearing the area and dismantling the infrastructure. This will take years and we will need patience to deal with it.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/392472
***
Israel will begin its offensive on Lebanon in the second half of July unless Hezbollah holds its fire, the German Bild reported on Monday quoting diplomatic sources, According to the paper, Hezbollah does not intend to stop its attacks on Israel until the war in Gaza ends.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1dvykgpc
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli Chief of Staff says that his forces killed more than 900 militants in Rafah
Intense fighting reports in the Gaza City and Rafah areas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese media report an Israeli drone strike on a vehicle near the Italian Hospital in the coastal city of Tyre.
A drone targeted a car with missiles in the town of Houla, southern Lebanon.
Indications that Israel’s current operations in Gaza, occupying 3 divisions, will soon be reduced to one division with the other two redeploying towards the Lebanese border..
NOTE - drone attacks like this likely hit high ranking personnel in Hezbollah.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Considerable Israeli security forces action in the Nablus area.
——— FORECAST ————————-
IMHO, reports of Israel kicking off its Lebanon ground offensive by the end of this month may be more propaganda designed to place Hezbollah on edge and burn them out in preparation before the attack occurs. Readiness declines the longer forces are placed at a high level of alert/readiness. Even with moving two of three divisions operating in Gaza north, Israel is still low on available offensive forces and should have more reserves called up. Such a call up could likely happen within two weeks of the offensive kicking off.
As it stands, Israel is settling into the bait and attack mode in Gaza to economize forces. Pull back and let Hamas try to regather, then hammer them with air power and lightning raids. This tactic does have its risks as it does seem Hamas is evolving its tactics to counter - relying increasingly on setting up traps of its own with IEDs on routes Israel is expect to us in their counter strike operations. These bombs have increased the casualties of IDF a lot.
Again barring any Hezbollah spoiling attack, I still expect the target window of the action against Hezbollah to be August. I think that timeframe and manpower wise, kicking off the attack in the next few weeks may not be optimum for Israel.
One last indicator that July is too early is Netanyahu’s scheduled speech before congress on July 25th. To launch conduct the massive offensive before then, while he is out of country, is unthinkable.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane Beryl’s projected track included the potential of hitting southern Texas with tropical storm levels of strength.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
NOTE - I mis-dated the Netanyahu speech to this month.
***
More leftist calls for the assassination of trump, conservative members of the USSC and other republicans by elements of the left (note - it isn’t just the fringe elements making these demands any more)
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
July 4th celebrations - keep your head on a swivel
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
According to a stunning new survey that was just released, an annual income of at least $186,000 a year is required in order to feel financially secure in the United States today. Unfortunately, only 6 percent of U.S. adults make that kind of money. So we have a major problem on our hands.
From CBS News...
Americans have a specific annual income in mind for what it would take to feel financially secure, according to a new survey from Bankrate. The magic number? $186,000 per year.
Currently, only 6% of U.S. adults make that amount or more, Bankrate said. The median family income falls between $51,500 and $86,000, according to the latest federal data. Achieving financial security means being able to pay your bills while having enough left over to make some discretionary purchases and put money away for the future, the personal finance site said.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=7058
***
The Biden administration completed the sale of 1 million barrels of gasoline from the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve, the White House said in a statement shared with The Epoch Times on July 2.
Last month, the government announced it would release 42 million gallons of gas from storage facilities in Maine and New Jersey to help lower pump prices heading into the typically busy summer driving season.
OBSERVATION - I think we all know by now that this is a deliberate action to place the country in a dangerous readiness situation. Sell offs of the SPR during 2022 did little to nothing to bring prices down, but did leave us vulnerable to oil cut offs from overseas. Now the gasoline reserve will place north-easterners under threat should oil pipelines and sources to the south get cut off, most commonly by severe storms.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Army and Navy have recently completed a flight test of a hypersonic missile as the United States seeks to keep pace with its geopolitical rivals—China and Russia—in developing hypersonic capabilities.
The military performed the flight test from the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Kauai, Hawaii, to gather data on the overall performance of the long-range hypersonic weapon (LRHW), the Pentagon said on June 28.
The LRHW is equipped with the Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) All-Up-Round missile—which consists of a two-stage solid rocket motor booster and a hypersonic glide body—and the Army’s canister.
A recent report by the Congressional Research Service stated that the U.S. Army’s LRHW, dubbed the Dark Eagle, can travel at more than 3,800 miles per hour and is capable of reaching “the top of the Earth’s atmosphere.”
The weapon system can maintain a position “just beyond the range of air and missile defense systems” until it is ready to strike, according to the report.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Pfizer, Moderna, and the mRNA gang are unleashing a new “vaccine” enterprise upon the public, and U.S. Government Health is all too happy to assist in the operation.
On Tuesday, The Biden Administration awarded Moderna with a $176 million contract purposed with developing a vaccine for bird flu. It serves as a much needed lifeline for Moderna, because after its failed mRNA Covid-19 gambit, the $45 billion company has once again found itself without any functioning products. However, given Moderna’s partnerships with the American government, the company has been able to sustain itself through regulatory capture.
https://www.dossier.today/p/pfizer-and-moderna-are-rolling-out
OBSERVATION - Expect growing pressure to pre-vaccinate the population in advance of the bird flu plandemic.
***
The second international Bird Flu Summit is taking place in a few months. It is proclaimed to be a global event that brings together experts, innovators and stakeholders to address the pressing concerns surrounding avian influenza. The summit aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange to combat the spread of bird flu and its impact on human and animal health, as well as the global economy.
In line with the World Health Organisation’s vision, the conference is taking a One Health approach. The outcome of the first Bird Flu Summit was that vaccination is a critical tool to mitigate the spread of bird flu. We can expect the outcome of the second to be the same.
The First International Avian Influenza Summit was held on 16-17 October 2023, at the University of Arkansas, USA, with a focus on research, policy, and industry collaboration. At the gathering, 23 speakers made presentations over the two days and 1,842 people registered as participants from 81 countries.
Another outcome of the 2023 Summit was to hold another summit on bird flu, this time, again unsurprisingly, to incorporate the nefarious One Health ideology. The second bird flu summit, ‘The International Avian Influenza and One Health Emerging Issues Summit’, is scheduled to take place from 30 September to 3 October 2024 at the Don Tyson Centre for Agricultural Sciences, in Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA.
“Avian influenza has adapted to mammalian species, and it is now endemic in the United States,” said Tellez-Isaias who is one of 14 organisers for the summit, hosted by the Division of Agriculture and the University of Arkansas Dale Bumpers College of Agricultural, Food and Life Sciences.
https://expose-news.com/2024/07/02/pandemic-vaccine-industry-pushes-for-bird-flu-vaccinations/
OBSERVATION - They are trying to make bird flu the next major pandemic by hook or by crook.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Shuffling of the card deck by democrats/liberals looking desperately for a replacement to biden have come up with a ridiculous poll that places - hold your hats - Vice President Kamala Harris performing slightly better than Biden in a matchup with former President Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee. Yes, you heard it right, the least popular VP in history out performing biden. Heck, she even outperforms Mike 0bama!
harris trails Trump by just two points – 47%-45% – in a hypothetical matchup, according to the poll.
Now add into this the very powerful black block in the DNC warning that replacing biden with anyone other than a black female will torpedo its 2024 campaign efforts. Evidence of some serious, knife in the back, red lines being drawn.
NOTE - Don’t put much faith in any polls. This poll is likely skewed by the black caucus related DNC wing to leverage support for harris - who’s largely been kept out of initial rumination on a biden replacement.
IN RELATED, lets throw some more pasta on the fridge to see what sticks shall we . . . .
Former first lady Michelle Obama is the only hypothetical presidential candidate alternative that can beat presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, a post-debate Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/poll-reuters-ipsos/2024/07/03/id/1171072/
BOTTOM LINE - the appearance of these polls server the purpose to try to leverage biden out of the candidate slot by showing the democrats can still win in November and secondly, sticking with a ‘black’ and female candidate is the winning number.
***
The July 11 sentencing of former President Donald J. Trump is being delayed until September 18 after two U.S. Supreme Court decisions. In a letter sent to Judge Juan Merchan on Tuesday, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg said his office was not opposed to a motion by attorneys for the former president asking to delay the sentencing hearing.
In his order, Merchan adds an interesting note - “if such is still necessary” in regards to the sentencing. Charlie Kirk on a post on “X” breaks out Merchan’s predicament -
Charlie Kirk notes on “X”. The Supreme Court has ruled that presidents are criminally immune for their core constitutional powers and presumptively immune for their official acts as president.
- As an extension of this, the Court also ruled that a president’s official acts cannot be used as evidence of criminal conduct in his private acts.
- Even though the NY case concerned actions Trump took before becoming president, Alvin Bragg’s team repeatedly and aggressively introduced evidence from President Trump’s official acts as president: His presidential tweets, his discussion of presidential business in the Oval Office, and so on. They didn’t have to do this, but they were in such a frenzy to attack Trump that they did it anyway
- If New York introduced unconstitutional evidence during their trial of Trump, then there is no option but to order a new trial with that evidence excluded.
NOTE that this is on TOP of all the other illegal actions taken by Merchan through the course of the trial.
Sept 18 will place any sentencing past the RNC convention and would add to the pressure of jailing a declared candidate for the presidency. At this stage, odds are increasing that Merchan will be forced to rule a mistrial, nullifying the indictments.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Reports that Hunter biden is taking a leading role in WH meetings is roiling staff. he is a convicted 3 time felon of gun charges and his presence with joe in high level WH meetings is a security risk at at the very least. This follows reports that Jill and hunter have effectively isolated joe from staffers, particularly those who would encourage him to step down from the presidential race. Such aggressive handling further suggests that not only is joe not in possession of his facilities, he isn’t in possession of the presidency.
***
One other poll to add to the ones under Political Front above -
Most U.S. voters — 75% — say that the Democratic Party will have a better chance at holding on to the White House if it replaces President Joe Biden as its nominee, according to a new CNN poll released Tuesday.
The numbers were driven by Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters, who said the party has a better chance of winning with someone other than Biden ( 56%), with 43% saying the party’s chances are better with him, reported CNN.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/cnn-poll-biden-trump/2024/07/02/id/1170996/
China –
China sailed its aircraft carrier CNS Shandong (17) into the South China Sea, as close as 230 miles from the Philippine main island of Luzon. Meanwhile, PLAN ships have been operating around Japan over the past few days, according to Japan Joint Staff Office releases.
Satellite imagery showed Shandong sailing within 230 miles of Luzon on June 26. The Philippine Navy has downplayed the carrier’s presence. Philippines news channel GMA News reported that in a Tuesday press briefing, Philippine Navy spokesperson Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad said the Philippine Navy was aware of the carrier and also of the China Coast Guard’s 12,000-ton CG5901 cutter in the Philippine exclusive economic zone. Trinidad said the presence of both ships was permissible under international law.
“They are authorized under UNCLOS either through freedom of navigation or right of innocent passage. Rest assured the Philippine Navy and the Armed Forces will continue monitoring the vast expanse of our maritime domain,” Trinidad said.
Russia -
*****
Russia is pressuring Israel in order to prevent them from transferring Patriot missile systems to Ukraine. Basically their threat is don’t do it or else. The “or else’ part is very vague.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
11 aerial targets were shot down by Ukrainian air defense this morning. Targeted areas included Dnipro city, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and the Odesa region.
Ukraine sea drone attack was reported in Novorosiysk, Russia by local authorities.
Reports from Kursk Russia, that the Central Aviation Technical Base is on fire after a series of explosions.
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims occupation of Novyy district of Chasiv Yar.
Outlook —
Institute for the Study of Warfare (ISW) is saying that it appears that Russian higher command in the Chasiv Yar / Avdiivka fronts are trying to develop a higher level of maneuver against Ukraine forces, similar to that which successfully drove the offensive in the region earlier in the spring. While the larger scheme of maneuver that appears to be forming is good on paper, execution at the tactical level is abysmally poor. This is due in part to the massive casualties that have been inflicted on Russian forces in the attacks to date. To further their advance, it appears that the bulk of the regional reserves have been committed to the area, potentially reflected in the minor Russian claim of actually occupying Novyy district of Chasiv Yar. Russia has been making similar claims over the past months as Chasiv Yar is one of the jewels putin has specifically called for Russia forces to capture.
Again, resupply of Ukraine forces with artillery and other munitions will make Russia’s efforts on this portion of the front even more difficult, because the earlier gains were when Ukraine forces were at critically low munitions levels and had to tactically retreat or be completely defeated. Those conditions are no longer in play.
The other big story continues to be Ukraine’s continuation of the ‘deep war’ against Russian targets. European countries are increasingly giving Ukraine the OK to not only hit where ever in Crimea, but deeper into Russia proper. The deepening expansion using NATO systems versus Ukraine developed drones/missiles is a huge step upward in potential war escalation.
Europe / NATO General –
Tensions in France continue at a high level as the nation prepares for the second round of elections this coming Sunday.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas tunnel network is so extensive it could take years to fully neutralize.
- New rumors that Israel’s assault into S Lebanon could be as early now as the end of July.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Brigadier General Amir Avivi, chairman of the IDSF and former commander of the IDF School of Engineering, spoke to Israel National News - Arutz Sheva on the continued clearing of Hamas tunnels even now, almost nine months since the outbreak of the Gaza war.
Avivi started by talking of significant information that must be taken into account: “The size and strength of Hamas are similar to ISIS at its peak. At the time there were about 35-40 thousand ISIS combat soldiers, who were much less skilled than Hamas, with much less significant infrastructure. They had many volunteers from all over the world and ISIS faced an entire coalition of Americans, Russians and Europeans, who fought there for years and razed the cities to the ground.”
“We have to understand that it will take time to eliminate this monster that was created in Gaza,” says Avivi and says that even after six weeks of fighting in Operation Defensive Shield, during the operation itself and in taking over the cities, the IDF continued to operate in the area for about five years to achieve the required results. We must be patient and, above all, make sure that conditions do not allow such a monster to rise up again in Gaza in the future. We need to internalize this lesson and stop the madness that allows terrorist armies to rise up around us.”
To our question how much longer he estimates we will continue to uncover tunnels and destroy them throughout the Gaza Strip, Avivi responds saying that, “we still have not yet discovered a very large part of the tunnels. This is a process that will take years to clear. Much more work is needed. In this kind of fighting there is the initial stage where we have to break down the enemy and take control. But the longer part of the process is clearing the area and dismantling the infrastructure. This will take years and we will need patience to deal with it.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/392472
***
Israel will begin its offensive on Lebanon in the second half of July unless Hezbollah holds its fire, the German Bild reported on Monday quoting diplomatic sources, According to the paper, Hezbollah does not intend to stop its attacks on Israel until the war in Gaza ends.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1dvykgpc
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli Chief of Staff says that his forces killed more than 900 militants in Rafah
Intense fighting reports in the Gaza City and Rafah areas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese media report an Israeli drone strike on a vehicle near the Italian Hospital in the coastal city of Tyre.
A drone targeted a car with missiles in the town of Houla, southern Lebanon.
Indications that Israel’s current operations in Gaza, occupying 3 divisions, will soon be reduced to one division with the other two redeploying towards the Lebanese border..
NOTE - drone attacks like this likely hit high ranking personnel in Hezbollah.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Considerable Israeli security forces action in the Nablus area.
——— FORECAST ————————-
IMHO, reports of Israel kicking off its Lebanon ground offensive by the end of this month may be more propaganda designed to place Hezbollah on edge and burn them out in preparation before the attack occurs. Readiness declines the longer forces are placed at a high level of alert/readiness. Even with moving two of three divisions operating in Gaza north, Israel is still low on available offensive forces and should have more reserves called up. Such a call up could likely happen within two weeks of the offensive kicking off.
As it stands, Israel is settling into the bait and attack mode in Gaza to economize forces. Pull back and let Hamas try to regather, then hammer them with air power and lightning raids. This tactic does have its risks as it does seem Hamas is evolving its tactics to counter - relying increasingly on setting up traps of its own with IEDs on routes Israel is expect to us in their counter strike operations. These bombs have increased the casualties of IDF a lot.
Again barring any Hezbollah spoiling attack, I still expect the target window of the action against Hezbollah to be August. I think that timeframe and manpower wise, kicking off the attack in the next few weeks may not be optimum for Israel.
One last indicator that July is too early is Netanyahu’s scheduled speech before congress on July 25th. To launch conduct the massive offensive before then, while he is out of country, is unthinkable.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane Beryl’s projected track included the potential of hitting southern Texas with tropical storm levels of strength.
No post today - happy 4th of July
Happy Independence Day, Godzilla. Thanks for your work.
Interesting that USA isn’t party to UNCOS.
Happy 4th of July to you too...
It is nice that we were actually able to celebrate 4th of July in this current mess the regime has foisted on us.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
NOTE - I mis-dated the Netanyahu speech to this month.
***
Numerous calls by a wide assortment of leftists continue to call for the assassination of trump and other conservatives.
Relatively quiet expect for the traditional trouble spots in major cities. Pro-islam / hamas elements burned a lot of US flags - no surprise.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
An early Wednesday morning explosion rocked the General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems facility in Camden, Arkansas, injuring at least two people and leaving one person missing.
Local media outlet Camden News quoted General Dynamics in a statement as saying:
“Today at 8:15 am CDT, an incident involving pyrotechnics occurred at the General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems facility in Camden, Arkansas. At this time, we are working with first responders and can confirm the incident resulted in at least two injuries and one missing individual.”
The 880,000-square-foot weapons factory, located about 86 miles south of Little Rock, is a “leader in the high-rate production” of weapons, including “Hydra-70 2.75-inch rocket, Hellfire and Javelin missiles, the Modular Artillery Charge System and various mortar munitions,” according to the defense firm’s website.
OBSERVATION - Sabotage or operations accident? At this stage of global instability and the rapidly growing demand for these in particularly weapons combined with the great unknowns of who has snuck across the border, this incident must be viewed suspiciously .
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
John Deere, the leading global seller of tractors and crop harvesters, announced another round of layoffs last Friday due to a collapse in demand and a slowing U.S. economy. The company informed approximately 610 production staff in its Illinois and Iowa plants that their employment would end by the end of the summer. According to John Deere, all layoffs will take effect on August 30. Production is going to be moved to Mexico where costs are substantially lower.
***
The number of Americans on unemployment rolls has risen for the ninth straight week, according to data released Wednesday by the Department of Labor, in the latest signal that the labor market is weakening.
The total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits—known as continuing claims—rose to 1.86 million for the week of June 22. That’s the highest level since November 2021.
Initial jobless claims, widely seen as a proxy for layoffs, increased from 234,000 to 238,000, according to data from the Labor Department. While that’s relatively low by historical standards, initial unemployment filings have been rising steadily recently after mostly remaining below 220,000 this year.
“Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month,” Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist, said in a statement.
While the ADP report indicated that U.S. private employers added 150,000 jobs in June, the group noted that this figure represented the third straight month of slowing job creation numbers.
OBSERVATION - Leisure and hospitality jobs do little to strengthen the economic foundations of the country. Construction and manufacturing sector - where things actually get made - are where growth are needed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
More associated scrambling among potential replacements for biden. Talk continue to surround newscum, mike 0bama and others with harris (and a strong contingency of black democrat faction) holding to its her or no money transfer from the biden / harris coffers.
***
Meanwhile, fingers are pointing and knives are out in the MSM realm as some outlets/reporters are coming out saying that they knew a half year ago biden was addle minded but didn’t want to report it because it would help trump (note - total lack of concern that biden is mentally unfit to have the nuclear codes). Blame continues to be heard on CNN for allowing biden to faceplant in the debate.
Biden / Harris Watch –
He’s staying - he’s going . . . . . Round and round the discussion goes where it stops nobody knows.
It is becoming apparent that biden realizes he is in trouble (at least between 10 am and 4 pm) and has spent the time post debate running around giving speeches to try to bolster his image that he is healthy and in charge. That hasn’t been working out so well for him as his latest gaff during an interview with a Philadelphia radio station stating that he’s “proud” to be “the first black woman to serve with a black president” .
Things are so bad some democrat supporters are pitching the plan to have AI do the campaigning for biden.
More congressional democrats are banding together to demand he step down, along with deep pocket donors and useful idiots in the MSM and influencer arena. Congressman Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) became the first Democratic lawmaker to openly call on President Biden to step aside. But according to a Reuters report, more than two dozen congressional Democrats are preparing to do the same.
Revelations that hunter is sitting in on major meetings isn’t helping the perception any.
Three in four U.S. voters think Joe Biden is “just too old to be an effective president,” results of a new national survey reveal.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of registered voters, conducted June 28-July 2, finds that 74% at least “somewhat” agree that Democrats’ 2024 candidate for reelection is too old to do the job, with more than half (53%) “strongly” agreeing. Voters think Biden’s too old by more than a three-to-one margin over the 22% who at least somewhat believe he’s not.
The younger the voter, the more likely the belief that Biden’s too old to do the job. Fully 84% of those 18-29 agree that Biden’s too old, with 64% strongly agreeing. But, even among those 65+, 64% agree he’s too ancient, including 44% who strongly agree.
BOTTOM LINE - I think a number of political pundits on both sides have got it bracketed in - biden has a week, maybe two at the tops to regain support of key democrat factions and demonstrate competence mentally or he either has to bow out or is forced out in some manner. The tail spin is changing to a direct plunge towards earth and the democrat leadership wants to stop the bleed now, so they have some time to repair damage before the elections.
China –
Cuba has upgraded and expanded four electronic surveillance facilities, including one near the Guantanamo Bay naval base, amid growing concern about China’s spying efforts in the United States’ backyard, according to a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“While China’s activities on the island remain shrouded in secrecy, satellite imagery analyzed by CSIS provides the latest and most comprehensive assessment of where China is most likely operating,” the report reads.
The report pointed to four active sites at Bejucal, El Salao, Wajay, and Calabazar. It added that the four locations are “strategically located” and are “among the most likely locations supporting China’s efforts to spy on the United States.”
OBSERVATION - Poor foreign policy by the regime has allowed Cuba to capitalize on China’s and Russia’s interest in placing stress on the US via many means. In this case, intelligence collection facilities. In Russia’s case, stationing potential Russia missiles. Being a former member of the intelligence community I would certainly hope NSA and others have been bolstering capabilities against China, but I fear that the politicization of the alphabet agency has them more concerned to collect against US citizens than china.
Russia -
*****
Talks between Putin and Orban have started in the Kremlin. Orban has been considerably outspoken in opposition to support to Ukraine.
Vladimir Tarabrin, Russian ambassador to the Netherlands threatened military strikes on the Dutch airbase at Volkel, where the F-16s to be transferred to Ukraine are currently located.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The use of crippled/wounded Russian men as soldiers is not the only or even the most important indicator that Russia has hit the mobilization wall
Nor are female prisoners, foreign mercs or DPRK soldiers.
Russia is now deploying Hitlerjugend-esque child-soldiers.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 32 Shahed drones overnight. Odesa, Mylolave, Cherksey, and Kyiv were targeted areas.
Ukraine pulls back into Chasiv Yar as Russians were able to consolidate gains across the eastern canal.
Russians push harder along the Ocheretyne axis.
Ukrainian forces continue to slowly push back Russian troops in the Kharkiv sector.
Outlook —
Analysts and OSINT are looking at what appears to be Russian command choice to escalate offensive operations near Toretsk in mid-June exactly because this area offers Russian forces a flexible point of departure from which they can either attack north towards Chasiv Yar or west/southwest in the Avdiivka direction, depending on whatever route of attack the Russian command deems the most immediately promising.
However, the main Russian force concentration in the Toretsk area is formed of lower-quality forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Territorial Troops, which will likely struggle to properly execute attacks, especially as Ukraine receives additional military aid over the coming weeks and months. Thus on a tactical level, the forces may not be competent enough to carry out the high commands plans, resorting to the same old mass attacks lacking fire and maneuver and racking up higher personnel and equipment losses for very little terrain captured.
Russian success at Chasiv Yar is minor and the city is not in imminent fear of falling. It has taken Russia some 2-3 months to secure this sliver of the town and still has to deal with the prepared strong holds of the main town. Nor is Russia guaranteed to hold this ground as supply lines are hard pressed by drones and artillery fire and russia is lacking the armor necessary to drive the push.
Europe / NATO General –
Britain swung hard to the left in elections with the leftist Labor party regaining control after 14 years. This swing is counter to that seen in France, Italy and other european countries.
This places Keir Starmer in the lead to take over as PM. He is a heavy pro-immigration and pro-WEF politician. Starmer stands by Israel’s right to self-defense and backs an end to the war only when hostages are freed; he is expected to be more critical of Netanyahu’s government and supports a Palestinian state after a comprehensive peace agreement
OBSERVATION - Migrants have caused problems that the conservatives have failed to address as well as economic woes. Labor has a big hill to climb in that traditionally liberal solutions to these two areas usually make matters worse, not better.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah confirms their senior commander has been eliminated!
- Hezbollah launches nearly 200 rockets in retaliation for the loss of Abu Nuaima
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will dispatch negotiators to resume Gaza cease-fire talks, an Israeli official says. The decision on comes a day after Hamas submitted a new response to a U.S.-backed proposal
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Fighting reported in Gaza City, central Gaza and Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF Eliminates Abu Nuaima, Commander of Hezbollah’s Aziz Unit on the Southern Front.
Why is this important? Hezbollah has three main commanders in the area:
- COMMANDER OF THE NASSER UNIT:
Responsible for the eastern sector, headed by Abu Taleb, who was the most senior Hezbollah commander eliminated by the IDF since the beginning of the war.
-COMMANDER OF THE AZIZ UNIT: Responsible for the western sector, formerly led by Abu Nuaima.
- COMMANDER OF THE BADR UNIT: Oversees the area to the north up to the Litani River.
The elimination of Abu Nuaima would deal a severe blow to Hezbollah’s strategic operations in the region.
Hezbollah responded to the death of their commander earlier by launching nearly 200 rockets towards northern Israel.
IAF has been hitting numerous targets in response to the rocket attacks. Many include Hezbollah command centers and other infrastructure.
NOTE - I reported in the last post about Israel hitting a vehicle in Lebanon and said it was likely a Hezbollah big wig. Now we know how big.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iranian General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, recently announced that the ayatollah regime was looking for an opportunity to launch a direct missile attack against Israel.
“We are hopeful of the arrival of the opportunity for [conducting] Operation True Promise 2,” Hajizadeh said, according to the Iranian state-controlled Mehr News Agency.
“Operation True Promise,” the Iranian regime’s official name for its unprecedented attack in April, when Tehran fired over 300 aerial projectiles – a combination of drones, missiles and ballistic missiles – against Israel.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-38/
OBSERVATION - Part of Iran’s ongoing threats and propaganda directed against Israel in an effort to deter an attack on Hezbollah.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Intensive Israeli security force operations in much of the area.
——— FORECAST ————————-
I see no real change in the current operation tempo. Israel sucking hamas into kill zones by letting them think they can reconstitute without harm, then harming them.
The battlefield shaping continues by Israel against Hezbollah. Losses of senior leadership has got to have the remaining leadership wondering just who is tipping Israel off to their locations and movements. A paranoid leadership becomes a poor leadership impacting war preparations. Still holding to an August window opening for the Israeli operation to kick off.
It doesn’t look like Hezbollah is willing yet to try to preemptively strike Israel. Only 100-200 rockets in retaliation for the death of Abu Nuaima is pretty small considering.
Turkey –
Erdogan plans to invite Syria’s Assad to Turkey
OBSERVATION - There has been a great deal of friction growing between Syrians and Turks of late, resulting in a lot of violence. While this has a surface appearance of working to attain ‘peace’, it has more the goal of Erdogan exerting dominance over Assad.
Misc of Note –
On July 3, 2024, California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in response to the destructive Thompson Fire near Oroville in Butte County. The fire began on July 2 and has rapidly spread to approximately 1 619 ha (4 000 acres), prompting evacuation orders and mobilization of firefighting resources.
OBSERVATION - Fire season is hitting early and bad for Kalifornia and likely spread to the rest of the west as summer progresses. If you live in fire prone regions - get your self ready now with repacking in the event of an evacuation and triple check your ways out. Fires are unforgiving and if you wait until the last minute you may well be dead.
Same WARNING for Freepers in the Gulf/Alantic regions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) downgraded Hurricane Beryl to a Category 4 storm from a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale on Wednesday morning. Beryl is the earliest hurricane on record to strengthen into a Category 5 as it churns across the southeastern Caribbean Sea. It is forecasted to hit the Yucatán Peninsula on Friday and afterward poses a threat to US oil and energy critical infrastructure on the Gulf Coast.
Get your preps for the hurricane season up and ready now. Don’t delay.
Time to watch if a new pattern is emerging. An attack at this level would be 'long term thinking' and point to a more serious enemy than mere hothead ME terrorists. Let's hope it was a more traditional factory problem.
I don’t pitch this ofter, but I do have a ping list for those interested.
Globalism / Great Reset –
British elections have hardened the support of WEF/globalist goals for the population. Already locals have been pressed by climate and growing 15 minute city style regulations - these will only get worse. For the short term, there will be virtually no breaks on the british gov’s move to enact globalist measures.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Calls for direct action by leftist and pro-hamas elements largely fizzled out over the 4th.
Calls for action against Netanyahu continue on social media sites. The calls include “planning and strategizing for mass actions, shut-downs, stay-aways, sit-ins, walkouts, traffic blocks, work stoppages, strikes and more.” (FO).
In a little over a week, the RNC convention starts and with it protests/violence likely concentrated in the Milwaukee area, with some minor spill over into other cities.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
June’s unemployment rate rose to the highest monthly level in 31 months, hitting 4.1%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday.
June’s seasonally-adjusted 4.1% unemployment rate wasn’t just up from May’s 4.0% level, it was also the highest monthly unemployment rate since November of 2021 (4.1%).
Meanwhile, BLS revised downward the number of jobs created in April and May by a combined 110,000.
As a result, the previously-reported job growth in May was lowered by 54,000, down from a robust 272,000 to 218,000. Despite the downward revision for May, June’s job growth of 206,000 still slowed from the previous month.
The number of unemployed people rose to 6,8 million, up from 6.6 million in May. Both the unemployment rate and number of unemployed in June are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.6% and the number of unemployed people was 6.0 million.
Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction:
OBSERVATION - more details on the June jobs report. Big part of this news is the substantial CUT in the number of jobs reported for April and May. Labor market is very weak.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Despite being the top pick among potential Democrat presidential candidates, Michelle Obama has once again confirmed she will not be running for president.
Trying to fly under the radar, harris continues to position herself to the presidential mantle in anticipation of biden stepping down. She holds possibly the strongest hand in the soap opera, with the 25th amendment capability to force biden to step down from the presidency altogether. Such an action could spur a constitutional crisis as the whole process works out and open political warfare breaks out between biden supporters and those seeking to remove him in an effort to stop the party from hitting the Titanic iceberg in the Nov elections.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden has said only the “Lord Almighty” could convince him to end his bid for re-election, as he sat for a rare primetime interview in an effort to calm Democratic concern over his candidacy.
Speaking to ABC News on Friday, Mr Biden also declined to take a cognitive test and make the results public in order to reassure voters he is fit to serve another term.
Media talking heads and other democrat influences shook their heads at the interview, nothing that though better than the debate, biden was still behind the cognitive power curve. Some have reported that the interview displays biden being even worse shape and highly disconnected from reality.
Special note that this is even after the interview was conducted by one of the most favorable news heads - Stephanopoulos. However, Stephanopoulos introduced the interview by claiming there had been “no cuts, no edits” to the video. “We have not touched it.”
OBSERVATION - biden ends the week + following his debate disaster in an effort to rebuild confidence in his mental and physical capabilities. In this he has failed. Democrat support continues to crumble, more and more voices from the left are coming out for him to stand down. It appears that neither side is backing down. This may lead to a constitutional crisis of sorts as it appears that a 25 amendment solution is gaining traction by those looking to ouster him.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of April 20, 2024
(FO) The FBI warned industry groups that renewable energy expansion is increasing the risk that hackers will target renewable power utilities to disrupt power generation and conduct ransomware attacks.
The FBI said attacks on residential solar systems are rare, but hackers could target microgrids or inverters at larger solar farms.
Russia -
Putin’s talks with Hungary’s Orbane have concluded.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched a large drone / missile attack overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 drones overnight. Ukraine ADA active over Cherkasy, over Sumy region, near Kamianske of Dnipropetrovsk region, Odesa and over Kirovohrad region towards Kremenchuk, Kyiv region, Karliva,
Ukraine returned the favor with Russian oil depots being hit by drones and catching fires in Pavlovskaya and Leningradskaya villages of Krasnodar Krai
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
The Russian military has reportedly lost 99,000 troops (killed and wounded) since the start of the Chasiv Yar campaign, - Forbes
Outlook —
Being reported by some of a considerable number is Iskander missile attacks on Ukraine airbases, particularly those believed to be slated to house F-16s. These bases currently have limited ADA coverage, so that any new systems coming in from the west - particularly Patriot systems - will be designated for use protecting them.
No expected changes to the locations and tempo of operations on the ground. Russia to continue its steady attacks along many sectors of the eastern front. Very little change expected in Chasiv Yar even though Russia has gained a toe hold on the city. Sustaining the attack will be its biggest challenge, going into a more fortified and defended city while trying to maintain its vulnerable supply lines.
It should be noted that the loss of nearly 100,000 in the Chaziv Yar fight alone has it Russia with nearly 1/4 of the 400,000 soldiers it started the spring offensive with. As noted in previous posts, Russia is able to roughly conscript enough soldiers to make up for monthly losses, but to equip them is another matter as more and more makeshift troop carriers are being employed in the rushes by Russian forces to reach jumpopff points - vehicle that are unarmored and easily destroyed and offer little to no protection to the troops. As a result Russian causality figures (killed and seriously wounded) are still projected to be well above 30,000 / month.
Europe / NATO General –
With the leftist win in Britain, the power dynamics of Europe will be reshuffled again in comparison to conservative/right parties winning controls in many other european countries.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- Some movement towards a cease fire and hostage release.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
A senior Hamas source said on Saturday that a revised Hamas-Israel deal proposal agreed that talks to release Israeli hostages, including soldiers and remaining men, would start in a 16-day period after the first phase of the agreement.
The source said that the proposal ensures that mediators would guarantee a temporary ceasefire, aid delivery, and withdrawal of Israeli troops as long as indirect talks continue to implement the second phase of the agreement.
The terrorist Islamist group has dropped a demand that Israel first commit to a permanent ceasefire before signing the agreement, and would allow negotiations to achieve that throughout a first six-week phase, the source told Reuters on condition of anonymity because the talks are private.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-809131#google_vignette
Senior Hamas official said to AFP that the organization expects an Israeli response to the truce proposal until tomorrow
The Prime Minister’s Office said “The head of the Mossad recently returned from Doha from an initial meeting with the mediators.”
“It was determined that a team will depart next week to continue the negotiations. It should be emphasized that there are still gaps between the parties,” the statement added.
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing an informed source, that Mossad officials said they were optimistic that the Cabinet would accept the proposal for a deal.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/392617
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Fighting the most significant overnight in the northern and central areas of Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese Hezbollah announces the launch of a group of drones on northern Israel.
The Israeli army: intercepted a suspicious air target coming from Lebanon in Kiryat Shmona, without causing any casualties
Israeli army says it destroyed Hezbollah’s surface-to-air missile launchers in southern Lebanon
Canada’s Prime Minister issued a warning for all Canadians to leave Lebanon while commercial flights are still available and stood up a task force to further monitor the situation.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Extensive activity by Israeli security forces throughout the west bank.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Hopes for a Gaza cease fire and hostage release are relatively improved, mostly due to the fact that the Hamas billionaires in Doha likely want an end to the fighting in Gaza, mainly because the Qataris may kick them out soon and leave them vulnerable to the Mossad. Add to that the choke hold the IAF has on Gaza after cutting off the smuggling routes from Egypt and systematically isolating and destroying hamas forces.
However, some view that the problem really is Yahya Sinwar and he doesn’t want to stop fighting. Sinwar has consistently resisted a cease-fire, calculating that more fighting and Palestinian civilian deaths work to his advantage, according to messages he has sent to mediators. Sinwar’s focus is to salvage his rule over Gaza to resurrect a fearsome threat to Israel once again.
On the other side of this coin, Hezbollah has to be concerned. A ceasefire would free up more forces to deploy against S Lebanon.
Though hopeful, there are still many, many obstacles to overcome for any cease fire and hostage release plan to be successful. But at this stage, the concessions and moves by Hamas suggest that they are losing their leverage with the hostages and the leadership is more interested in protecting their rear ends.
One additional bottom line is that any agreement with Hamas will not lessen the probability of war with Hezbollah in the upcoming months.
Iran –
Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian has been elected as Iran’s new president, beating his hardline conservative rival Saeed Jalili.
The vote was declared in Dr Pezeshkian’s favour after he secured 53.3% of the more than 30 million votes counted. Mr Jalili polled at 44.3%.
Dr Pezeshkian, a 71-year-old heart surgeon and member of the Iranian parliament, is critical of Iran’s notorious morality police and caused a stir after promising “unity and cohesion”, as well as an end to Iran’s “isolation” from the world.
He has also called for “constructive negotiations” with Western powers over a renewal of the faltering 2015 nuclear deal in which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear programme in return for an easing of Western sanctions.
Saeed Jalili was widely seen as maintaining the current status quo and pushing more international confrontations
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx824yl3ln4o
OBSERVATION - Pezeshkian appears to at least initially seek to calm the younger Iranians with reforms while softening Irans international stance on nuclear arms. However, the true power still rests with Khamenei who can overrule any actions by Pezeshkian.
Misc of Note –
Landfall of Beryl as a hurricane is now predicted to occur somewhere from near the Houston and Galveston areas southward to near Brownsville.
This change in the forecast path has been caused by Beryl steering farther north than originally expected. Over the next day or so, Beryl will turn more to the northwest toward a weakness in subtropical high pressure over the southern United States, and because of the influence from an upper-level low-pressure system located to Beryl’s west.
Here’s a look at the general timeline based on the latest NHC forecast.
- This weekend: Beryl is expected to be pulled northwestward through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast. The greatest chance for steady intensification into a hurricane will begin on Sunday.
- By late Sunday: Preparations along the Texas coast for hurricane and/or tropical storm conditions should be completed.
- Monday: Landfall is expected on the Texas coast with damaging winds, storm surge, heavy rain and a few tornadoes.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-07-05-hurricane-beryl-forecast-mexico-texas
OBSERVATION - The current track of Beryl is following what many considered to be outliers from last week’s spaghetti plots. All the more reason to consistently monitor situations as initial projections may not always be the final track.
Thanks. Iran and UK elections are interesting.
Biden has said only the “Lord Almighty” could convince him to end his bid for re-election.......>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
With the way Joe has been disarming God’s chosen People, as they struggle to eliminate the genocidal HAMAS, I am sure someth8ing can be arranged.
And that arrangement? A slip and a fall of about 30 feet?
BUt we want Joe to run! Run Joe run, stay safe!
I’m torn on that one.
I don’t know which would be worse for them, biden running or not running.
Biden has said only the “Lord Almighty” could convince him to end his bid for re-election,
I’m torn on that one.
I don’t know which would be worse for them, biden running or not running.
I doubt he has any ears...................................
Likely he is beyond redemption.
This is in God’s hands.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has called for a virtual meeting Sunday afternoon with top committee Democrats as concerns grow about President Joe Biden remaining in the race for president.
A House Democratic official familiar with the plan confirmed the meeting with Bloomberg but said the New York party leader has not specified the topic for the meeting.
Jeffries’ call on Friday for the meeting comes as some Democrat lawmakers are breaking with the party’s establishment, which continues to support Biden in the wake of his struggles during his June 27 debate with former President Donald Trump.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The aftershock keep coming for and against biden. Now it has been revealed that the WH gives pre-authorized questions to radio reporters conducting interviews with biden.
Lots of other rumors concerning his health and the morale of his campaign staff.
One push poll has biden gaining 2 points on trump. Remember, if biden was polling that well in the post debate world, there would not be any discussion of his continuing as the presidential candidate.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 13 Shahed drones overnight. Ukraine also hit and destroyed several oil facilities in Russia in addition to striking an ammunition depot in Podgorensky district of Voronezh, forcing the evacuation of the town.
Outlook —
The slugfest on the fronts will continue with no significant changes in the near term. Ukraine is expected to retake ground in the Kharkiv front while Russia continues to press tha Chasiv Yar region.
Russia’s growing Air Defense crisis continues as Ukraine drones attack petroleum related sites with virtually not opposition. Already this year Ukraine has taken an estimated 25% Russia’s petroleum production and processing off line - that number likely being higher with recent attacks.
Europe / NATO General –
France is voting in one of its most significant elections in years, with the far right hoping for a historic victory, but with political stalemate the more likely result.
This is the first time the anti-immigration National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella has had a realistic chance of running the government and taking outright control of the National Assembly.
But after the RN’s first-round victory last Sunday, more than 200 rival candidates dropped out to give others a better chance of defeating the far right.
Voting ends at 20:00 (18:00 GMT) and by midday turnout was 26.63%, marginally up on the first round and the highest figure in a parliamentary vote since 1981.
France is bracing for major riots should the RN continue its winning ways.
OBSERVATION - Pen appears to be less supportive of Ukraine than Macron, and could indicate a shift to a less aggressive posture towards Moscow.
***
Meanwhile, across the channel, Britain’s new PM says he’s killing the Rwanda plan, which would’ve seen tens of thousands of illegals deported. He’s also not going to stop the release of prisoners in the country’s new shift towards woke criminal justice reform.
OBSERVATION - Many commenters are saying Britain is doomed - and with good reason. Moslem immigrants have taken the place of power with the leverage necessary to begin forcing shariah law. Native brits are being jailed for speaking out against these newcomers who, like they have in other European countries, sparked crime waves and causing the welfare system. Now they have an enlarged voting bloc in parliament.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- IDF takes out Hezbollah terrorist Meitham Mustafa Altaar.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Rumors that the hostage release and cease fire negotiations are continuing to move forward.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF confirms carrying out an airstrike against a United Nations-run school in the central Gaza Strip earlier today, saying the facility was used by Hamas operatives as a command center. Before carrying out the strike against UNRWA’s al-Jaouni school in Nuseirat, the IDF says it carried out “many steps” to mitigate harm to civilians, including using aerial surveillance and other intelligence.
An Israel Air Force aircraft struck the Khan Yunis municipality building in the Gaza Strip during an overnight operation, the military said on Sunday.
The strike was carried out using intelligence information provided by the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and the Southern Command.
Among other things, in the building was an operational shaft that was connected to an underground route that served as a meeting place for Hamas terrorists, the military noted.
Before the attack, the military carried out several steps to reduce potential harm to civilians, the IDF added.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Around 20 rockets were launched in the Hezbollah attack from Lebanon against the Lower Galilee, according to the Israeli army. Israeli Channel 12: At least 7 missiles were intercepted in the skies of Lower Galilee. The rockets followed Israel’s Saturday elimination of Hezbollah terrorist Meitham Mustafa Altaar in an airstrike in the Baalbek area, deep within Lebanese territory.
The Israeli army says it killed Meitham Mustafa Al-Attar, a senior engineer in Hezbollah’s Air Defense Array, near Baalbek overnight. Al-Attar was part of planning and implementing terrorist operations against Israel. He received training in Iran and helped arm Hezbollah with Iranian weapons. Hezbollah has confirmed Al-Attar was killed
———WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the vicinity of Al-Faraa camp, south of Tubas, in the West Bank
——— FORECAST ————————-
No big changes in the near term that I can see. Hostage/ceasefire negotiations will take a considerable amount of time before they are worked out, so I don’t see any Israeli let up in Gaza until then.
Hezbollah leadership continue to get identified and surgically taken out - a trend I fully expect to continue.
Misc of Note –
Computer models show Beryl’s forecasted track has been shifting slightly north in recent days, which may allow the storm to stay in warmer Gulf waters longer.
“It would not shock me if there is further intensification,” Roys said, adding, “Right now we are with Category 1, but if the trend continues and the track sneaks a little further north, there could potentially be more funny business going on with intensification. It is something we are watching.”
Gov. Greg Abbott while traveling overseas, issued a pre-emptive disaster declaration for 40 counties.
Beryl is now focused on the Texas coastline. Projections of the path show it proceeding along the Mississippi to Ohio valleys before exiting out of the US in the New England area.
whoops, ping above
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