I don’t pitch this ofter, but I do have a ping list for those interested.
Globalism / Great Reset –
British elections have hardened the support of WEF/globalist goals for the population. Already locals have been pressed by climate and growing 15 minute city style regulations - these will only get worse. For the short term, there will be virtually no breaks on the british gov’s move to enact globalist measures.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated July 2, 2024
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
July 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Calls for direct action by leftist and pro-hamas elements largely fizzled out over the 4th.
Calls for action against Netanyahu continue on social media sites. The calls include “planning and strategizing for mass actions, shut-downs, stay-aways, sit-ins, walkouts, traffic blocks, work stoppages, strikes and more.” (FO).
In a little over a week, the RNC convention starts and with it protests/violence likely concentrated in the Milwaukee area, with some minor spill over into other cities.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
June’s unemployment rate rose to the highest monthly level in 31 months, hitting 4.1%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday.
June’s seasonally-adjusted 4.1% unemployment rate wasn’t just up from May’s 4.0% level, it was also the highest monthly unemployment rate since November of 2021 (4.1%).
Meanwhile, BLS revised downward the number of jobs created in April and May by a combined 110,000.
As a result, the previously-reported job growth in May was lowered by 54,000, down from a robust 272,000 to 218,000. Despite the downward revision for May, June’s job growth of 206,000 still slowed from the previous month.
The number of unemployed people rose to 6,8 million, up from 6.6 million in May. Both the unemployment rate and number of unemployed in June are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.6% and the number of unemployed people was 6.0 million.
Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction:
OBSERVATION - more details on the June jobs report. Big part of this news is the substantial CUT in the number of jobs reported for April and May. Labor market is very weak.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Despite being the top pick among potential Democrat presidential candidates, Michelle Obama has once again confirmed she will not be running for president.
Trying to fly under the radar, harris continues to position herself to the presidential mantle in anticipation of biden stepping down. She holds possibly the strongest hand in the soap opera, with the 25th amendment capability to force biden to step down from the presidency altogether. Such an action could spur a constitutional crisis as the whole process works out and open political warfare breaks out between biden supporters and those seeking to remove him in an effort to stop the party from hitting the Titanic iceberg in the Nov elections.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden has said only the “Lord Almighty” could convince him to end his bid for re-election, as he sat for a rare primetime interview in an effort to calm Democratic concern over his candidacy.
Speaking to ABC News on Friday, Mr Biden also declined to take a cognitive test and make the results public in order to reassure voters he is fit to serve another term.
Media talking heads and other democrat influences shook their heads at the interview, nothing that though better than the debate, biden was still behind the cognitive power curve. Some have reported that the interview displays biden being even worse shape and highly disconnected from reality.
Special note that this is even after the interview was conducted by one of the most favorable news heads - Stephanopoulos. However, Stephanopoulos introduced the interview by claiming there had been “no cuts, no edits” to the video. “We have not touched it.”
OBSERVATION - biden ends the week + following his debate disaster in an effort to rebuild confidence in his mental and physical capabilities. In this he has failed. Democrat support continues to crumble, more and more voices from the left are coming out for him to stand down. It appears that neither side is backing down. This may lead to a constitutional crisis of sorts as it appears that a 25 amendment solution is gaining traction by those looking to ouster him.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of April 20, 2024
(FO) The FBI warned industry groups that renewable energy expansion is increasing the risk that hackers will target renewable power utilities to disrupt power generation and conduct ransomware attacks.
The FBI said attacks on residential solar systems are rare, but hackers could target microgrids or inverters at larger solar farms.
Russia -
Putin’s talks with Hungary’s Orbane have concluded.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched a large drone / missile attack overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 drones overnight. Ukraine ADA active over Cherkasy, over Sumy region, near Kamianske of Dnipropetrovsk region, Odesa and over Kirovohrad region towards Kremenchuk, Kyiv region, Karliva,
Ukraine returned the favor with Russian oil depots being hit by drones and catching fires in Pavlovskaya and Leningradskaya villages of Krasnodar Krai
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
The Russian military has reportedly lost 99,000 troops (killed and wounded) since the start of the Chasiv Yar campaign, - Forbes
Outlook —
Being reported by some of a considerable number is Iskander missile attacks on Ukraine airbases, particularly those believed to be slated to house F-16s. These bases currently have limited ADA coverage, so that any new systems coming in from the west - particularly Patriot systems - will be designated for use protecting them.
No expected changes to the locations and tempo of operations on the ground. Russia to continue its steady attacks along many sectors of the eastern front. Very little change expected in Chasiv Yar even though Russia has gained a toe hold on the city. Sustaining the attack will be its biggest challenge, going into a more fortified and defended city while trying to maintain its vulnerable supply lines.
It should be noted that the loss of nearly 100,000 in the Chaziv Yar fight alone has it Russia with nearly 1/4 of the 400,000 soldiers it started the spring offensive with. As noted in previous posts, Russia is able to roughly conscript enough soldiers to make up for monthly losses, but to equip them is another matter as more and more makeshift troop carriers are being employed in the rushes by Russian forces to reach jumpopff points - vehicle that are unarmored and easily destroyed and offer little to no protection to the troops. As a result Russian causality figures (killed and seriously wounded) are still projected to be well above 30,000 / month.
Europe / NATO General –
With the leftist win in Britain, the power dynamics of Europe will be reshuffled again in comparison to conservative/right parties winning controls in many other european countries.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- Some movement towards a cease fire and hostage release.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
A senior Hamas source said on Saturday that a revised Hamas-Israel deal proposal agreed that talks to release Israeli hostages, including soldiers and remaining men, would start in a 16-day period after the first phase of the agreement.
The source said that the proposal ensures that mediators would guarantee a temporary ceasefire, aid delivery, and withdrawal of Israeli troops as long as indirect talks continue to implement the second phase of the agreement.
The terrorist Islamist group has dropped a demand that Israel first commit to a permanent ceasefire before signing the agreement, and would allow negotiations to achieve that throughout a first six-week phase, the source told Reuters on condition of anonymity because the talks are private.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-809131#google_vignette
Senior Hamas official said to AFP that the organization expects an Israeli response to the truce proposal until tomorrow
The Prime Minister’s Office said “The head of the Mossad recently returned from Doha from an initial meeting with the mediators.”
“It was determined that a team will depart next week to continue the negotiations. It should be emphasized that there are still gaps between the parties,” the statement added.
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing an informed source, that Mossad officials said they were optimistic that the Cabinet would accept the proposal for a deal.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/392617
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Fighting the most significant overnight in the northern and central areas of Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese Hezbollah announces the launch of a group of drones on northern Israel.
The Israeli army: intercepted a suspicious air target coming from Lebanon in Kiryat Shmona, without causing any casualties
Israeli army says it destroyed Hezbollah’s surface-to-air missile launchers in southern Lebanon
Canada’s Prime Minister issued a warning for all Canadians to leave Lebanon while commercial flights are still available and stood up a task force to further monitor the situation.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Extensive activity by Israeli security forces throughout the west bank.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Hopes for a Gaza cease fire and hostage release are relatively improved, mostly due to the fact that the Hamas billionaires in Doha likely want an end to the fighting in Gaza, mainly because the Qataris may kick them out soon and leave them vulnerable to the Mossad. Add to that the choke hold the IAF has on Gaza after cutting off the smuggling routes from Egypt and systematically isolating and destroying hamas forces.
However, some view that the problem really is Yahya Sinwar and he doesn’t want to stop fighting. Sinwar has consistently resisted a cease-fire, calculating that more fighting and Palestinian civilian deaths work to his advantage, according to messages he has sent to mediators. Sinwar’s focus is to salvage his rule over Gaza to resurrect a fearsome threat to Israel once again.
On the other side of this coin, Hezbollah has to be concerned. A ceasefire would free up more forces to deploy against S Lebanon.
Though hopeful, there are still many, many obstacles to overcome for any cease fire and hostage release plan to be successful. But at this stage, the concessions and moves by Hamas suggest that they are losing their leverage with the hostages and the leadership is more interested in protecting their rear ends.
One additional bottom line is that any agreement with Hamas will not lessen the probability of war with Hezbollah in the upcoming months.
Iran –
Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian has been elected as Iran’s new president, beating his hardline conservative rival Saeed Jalili.
The vote was declared in Dr Pezeshkian’s favour after he secured 53.3% of the more than 30 million votes counted. Mr Jalili polled at 44.3%.
Dr Pezeshkian, a 71-year-old heart surgeon and member of the Iranian parliament, is critical of Iran’s notorious morality police and caused a stir after promising “unity and cohesion”, as well as an end to Iran’s “isolation” from the world.
He has also called for “constructive negotiations” with Western powers over a renewal of the faltering 2015 nuclear deal in which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear programme in return for an easing of Western sanctions.
Saeed Jalili was widely seen as maintaining the current status quo and pushing more international confrontations
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx824yl3ln4o
OBSERVATION - Pezeshkian appears to at least initially seek to calm the younger Iranians with reforms while softening Irans international stance on nuclear arms. However, the true power still rests with Khamenei who can overrule any actions by Pezeshkian.
Misc of Note –
Landfall of Beryl as a hurricane is now predicted to occur somewhere from near the Houston and Galveston areas southward to near Brownsville.
This change in the forecast path has been caused by Beryl steering farther north than originally expected. Over the next day or so, Beryl will turn more to the northwest toward a weakness in subtropical high pressure over the southern United States, and because of the influence from an upper-level low-pressure system located to Beryl’s west.
Here’s a look at the general timeline based on the latest NHC forecast.
- This weekend: Beryl is expected to be pulled northwestward through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast. The greatest chance for steady intensification into a hurricane will begin on Sunday.
- By late Sunday: Preparations along the Texas coast for hurricane and/or tropical storm conditions should be completed.
- Monday: Landfall is expected on the Texas coast with damaging winds, storm surge, heavy rain and a few tornadoes.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-07-05-hurricane-beryl-forecast-mexico-texas
OBSERVATION - The current track of Beryl is following what many considered to be outliers from last week’s spaghetti plots. All the more reason to consistently monitor situations as initial projections may not always be the final track.
Thanks. Iran and UK elections are interesting.
I’m torn on that one.
I don’t know which would be worse for them, biden running or not running.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has called for a virtual meeting Sunday afternoon with top committee Democrats as concerns grow about President Joe Biden remaining in the race for president.
A House Democratic official familiar with the plan confirmed the meeting with Bloomberg but said the New York party leader has not specified the topic for the meeting.
Jeffries’ call on Friday for the meeting comes as some Democrat lawmakers are breaking with the party’s establishment, which continues to support Biden in the wake of his struggles during his June 27 debate with former President Donald Trump.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The aftershock keep coming for and against biden. Now it has been revealed that the WH gives pre-authorized questions to radio reporters conducting interviews with biden.
Lots of other rumors concerning his health and the morale of his campaign staff.
One push poll has biden gaining 2 points on trump. Remember, if biden was polling that well in the post debate world, there would not be any discussion of his continuing as the presidential candidate.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80s to upper 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 13 Shahed drones overnight. Ukraine also hit and destroyed several oil facilities in Russia in addition to striking an ammunition depot in Podgorensky district of Voronezh, forcing the evacuation of the town.
Outlook —
The slugfest on the fronts will continue with no significant changes in the near term. Ukraine is expected to retake ground in the Kharkiv front while Russia continues to press tha Chasiv Yar region.
Russia’s growing Air Defense crisis continues as Ukraine drones attack petroleum related sites with virtually not opposition. Already this year Ukraine has taken an estimated 25% Russia’s petroleum production and processing off line - that number likely being higher with recent attacks.
Europe / NATO General –
France is voting in one of its most significant elections in years, with the far right hoping for a historic victory, but with political stalemate the more likely result.
This is the first time the anti-immigration National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella has had a realistic chance of running the government and taking outright control of the National Assembly.
But after the RN’s first-round victory last Sunday, more than 200 rival candidates dropped out to give others a better chance of defeating the far right.
Voting ends at 20:00 (18:00 GMT) and by midday turnout was 26.63%, marginally up on the first round and the highest figure in a parliamentary vote since 1981.
France is bracing for major riots should the RN continue its winning ways.
OBSERVATION - Pen appears to be less supportive of Ukraine than Macron, and could indicate a shift to a less aggressive posture towards Moscow.
***
Meanwhile, across the channel, Britain’s new PM says he’s killing the Rwanda plan, which would’ve seen tens of thousands of illegals deported. He’s also not going to stop the release of prisoners in the country’s new shift towards woke criminal justice reform.
OBSERVATION - Many commenters are saying Britain is doomed - and with good reason. Moslem immigrants have taken the place of power with the leverage necessary to begin forcing shariah law. Native brits are being jailed for speaking out against these newcomers who, like they have in other European countries, sparked crime waves and causing the welfare system. Now they have an enlarged voting bloc in parliament.
ISRAEL –
July 25 - Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Key overnight developments -
- IDF takes out Hezbollah terrorist Meitham Mustafa Altaar.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Rumors that the hostage release and cease fire negotiations are continuing to move forward.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF confirms carrying out an airstrike against a United Nations-run school in the central Gaza Strip earlier today, saying the facility was used by Hamas operatives as a command center. Before carrying out the strike against UNRWA’s al-Jaouni school in Nuseirat, the IDF says it carried out “many steps” to mitigate harm to civilians, including using aerial surveillance and other intelligence.
An Israel Air Force aircraft struck the Khan Yunis municipality building in the Gaza Strip during an overnight operation, the military said on Sunday.
The strike was carried out using intelligence information provided by the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and the Southern Command.
Among other things, in the building was an operational shaft that was connected to an underground route that served as a meeting place for Hamas terrorists, the military noted.
Before the attack, the military carried out several steps to reduce potential harm to civilians, the IDF added.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Around 20 rockets were launched in the Hezbollah attack from Lebanon against the Lower Galilee, according to the Israeli army. Israeli Channel 12: At least 7 missiles were intercepted in the skies of Lower Galilee. The rockets followed Israel’s Saturday elimination of Hezbollah terrorist Meitham Mustafa Altaar in an airstrike in the Baalbek area, deep within Lebanese territory.
The Israeli army says it killed Meitham Mustafa Al-Attar, a senior engineer in Hezbollah’s Air Defense Array, near Baalbek overnight. Al-Attar was part of planning and implementing terrorist operations against Israel. He received training in Iran and helped arm Hezbollah with Iranian weapons. Hezbollah has confirmed Al-Attar was killed
———WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the vicinity of Al-Faraa camp, south of Tubas, in the West Bank
——— FORECAST ————————-
No big changes in the near term that I can see. Hostage/ceasefire negotiations will take a considerable amount of time before they are worked out, so I don’t see any Israeli let up in Gaza until then.
Hezbollah leadership continue to get identified and surgically taken out - a trend I fully expect to continue.
Misc of Note –
Computer models show Beryl’s forecasted track has been shifting slightly north in recent days, which may allow the storm to stay in warmer Gulf waters longer.
“It would not shock me if there is further intensification,” Roys said, adding, “Right now we are with Category 1, but if the trend continues and the track sneaks a little further north, there could potentially be more funny business going on with intensification. It is something we are watching.”
Gov. Greg Abbott while traveling overseas, issued a pre-emptive disaster declaration for 40 counties.
Beryl is now focused on the Texas coastline. Projections of the path show it proceeding along the Mississippi to Ohio valleys before exiting out of the US in the New England area.