Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
Merry Christmas to all...
Merry Christmas and many THANKS for all you do! May God bless you!
Christmas is past, and not peace on Earth to be seen. Fact is things seem to have increased.
Otherwise, hope everyone had a nice Christmas
Globalism / Great Reset –
Bill Gates often has expressed extremism in supporting his agenda that appears to include massive levels of one-world government, such as the submitting to World Health Organization agendas, and mandatory vaccines for people whether they help or not.
Now he’s stepped further into the morass. He is suggesting artificial intelligence, or AI, censor people who are “inciting violence” by expressing doubt about vaccines.
Now, during an interview with CNBC, he’s conflated doubts about the many shots that have been developed by for-profit corporations, with “inciting violence.”
A report at Slay News explains that Gates now is calling for “members of the general public to be censored by artificial intelligence (AI) if they question the official narratives regarding ‘vaccines.’”
He charged that since “anti-vaxxers” are “inciting violence” by urging people to avoid vaccines, they therefore are a “threat” to the public.
OBSERVATION - 2024 was the year of censorship / ‘misinformation’ for the WEF / globalists. Gates is just echoing the desire to forcibly censor thoughts/speech contrary to their goals and narrative. Again, the Orwellian definition of ‘violence’.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
J6, 2025 is fast approaching for certification of the 2024 election. Ive seen nothing that indicates any large scale protests or riots being planned.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
***
In Europe, vandalism of Jewish Synagogues have occurred. Nothing significant reported or identified here in the US other than similar.
POLITICAL FRONT –
There is a lot of positioning going on in Congress as well as the greater political world in respect of how they are going to deal with a Trump administration. Some for the good, some for the bad and some for the ugly.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The regime is doing everything in its power to spend as much as it can and to tie down Trumps efforts to reduce the budget and exert political power globally.
Rumors still float around, as they have for the past several weeks, that biden may rhetorically burn every thing down before Trump takes over. He’s only got a little over a month, but he and his handlers are wounded animals and dangerous.
Illegal Immigration –
Auction of border fencing materials seem to have been stopped.
China –
China reportedly released video of a 6th gen fighter. A great deal of discussion on the inter webs suggest that rather this is a drone to accompany current fighters.
North/South Korea –
Reports that NK is going to increase the number of troops sent to Russia to fight in Ukraine. In return Russia has been pumping oil and food into the country along with a lot of technical related support.
Russia -
Logistics –
Russia is now producing 2,000 Shahed drones per month, – Defense Express. Reports suggest this production rate was achieved by the end of this year.
NOTE - This would permit an average of about 60 drones available per day to fire at Ukraine. This is about what Russian is doing on a daily basis.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia invading Ukraine in 2022 has turned out to be a big mistake. So far nearly 800,000 soldiers have been killed, wounded or missing. Millions of 18-45 year old military age men have fled the country. That meant Russia was forced to take men as old as fifty or 60. All these losses created a labor shortage, with millions of jobs unfilled. That meant higher wages to attract scarce workers. This in turn led to high prices for consumers. There is also an in-progress collapse of the railway system that may result in economic collapse in 1-2 years and mass starvation in 3-4 years. That may somehow be avoided. If not, the losses will be immense and Russia may never recover.
Many who left the country were university educated, or skilled tradesmen. These refugees were either able to speak another language like English, German or Polish or were willing to learn one quickly.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/2024122602624.aspx#gsc.tab=0
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s with widely scattered rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Actually, the last 72 hours or so
Russian Christmas day attack - Ukrainian air defense shot down 55 Russian cruise missiles, 4 aviation guided missiles and 54 UAVs. In total Russia launched 2 KN-23 ballistic missiles, 10 S-300/S-400 missiles in ground-to-ground mode, 12 Kaliber cruise missiles, 50 Kh-101 missiles, 4 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided aviation missiles, 106 Shahed-type and other UAVs
(BBC) Russia targeted Ukrainian energy facilities using “air, ground, and sea-based missiles”, as well as drones. In total, the air force detected 184 “enemy air targets”.
The areas with energy facilities attacked include Kharkiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Zaporizhia.
PAST 24 HRS - Ukraine’s Air Force reported about an overnight Shahed drone attack.
Out of 31 launched, 20 were shot down and another 11 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 26/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1540 men
+2 tanks
+10 APVs
+24 artillery systems
+1 AD system
Russian Territory –
Arrivals and departures halted at Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Zhukovsky and Kaluga airports (NW of Moscow)— Rosaviatsia Temporary restrictions may be related to another drone attack
Summary —
The Russia Christmas missile attack has received universal condemnation. Targeting the energy infrastructure, is means to put hurt on the civilian population this winter as well as reducing the capabilities of the arms manufacturing efforts.
Russian losses remain at moderately high levels, though numbers of attacks are generally down.
OSINT and other analysts see Russian now struggling to seize Pokrovsk and even if they do, they don’t have the equipment available to exploit the situation. They note increasing use of unarmored civilian trucks and cars as the primary movers of troops into the battle zone. These vehicles are largely constrained to existing roads, due to the mud season, making them easy targets.
Fighting in the Kursk region is down by about half over the past week. The front there is largely static.
In the face of the Russian Christmas missile/drone blitz, Ukraine has managed to hit selective critical targets in Russia, including oil/petroleum and gun powder facilities. In Kursk, they hit the HQ and barracks for a major Russian marine brigade.
The reports of Russian production capability for Shahed style drones give us a baseline on just how many they can throw on a daily basis. As noted above, they make about 60 per day, and they are shooting about the same amount. I have no figures for how many Iran is producing and delivering above that. My gut says that those numbers may be down due to a combination of Russian self production and Iran having to shift some priorities due to the collapse of Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria. Russian production of cruise and ballistic missiles is far smaller than their drone capacity, thus the longer periods between attacks using those assets.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Rumors that the Kremlin may be setting information conditions for a false flag in the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria likely in a continued attempt to destabilize Moldova and hinder its integration into European Union (EU).
OBSERVATION - There are reportedly 3000 Russian troops in Transnistria, but they are pretty much cut off from Russia support and may even be thinned out thru forces/equipment pulled out for the Ukraine fight. Moldova OTOH has basically a beefed up police force, no formal military. Any fighting between the two would be rough, though Moldova may get relatively quick reinforcement of supplies from Romania and under extreme conditions even military forces.
Europe / NATO General –
GEORGIA - President of Georgia Salome Zourabichvili reiterated her appeal to Georgian Dream’s founder Bidzina Ivanishvili to hold negotiations on a proposed new election date by 29 December, warning that the alternative would be a ‘collapse of the regime’
Meanwhile, protests continue in other parts of the country.
***
The undersea power cable Estlink 2 between Finland and Estonia has been destroyed.
The Chinese vessel Xin Xin Tiang was sailing over it when it happened
Xin Xin Tiang is a sister vessel of NewNew Polar which destroyed the undersea gas pipeline Balticconnector in 2023
Middle East / N. Africa General -
EGYPT - Demonstrations in Cairo, Egypt are breaking out against President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Sisi announced his new administrative capital and presidential palace two days ago at a cost of $45 billion
Protestors in Cairo shout slogans against the current President, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, and chanted slogans: ‘The people want the fall of the regime!’.
RELATED - Egypt requests the closure of the Syrian embassy in Cairo until further notice.
OBSERVATION - Egypt shares fears that Jordan has in that the recent rebel victory in Syria may spill out into their countries and threaten the existing govts there.
Pakistan –
Developing reports that Pakistan is developing an ICBM that can reach the US.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hostage negotiations / ceasefire talks hit bumps.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas now claims it’s “impossible” to count the live hostages held in Gaza but promises to “provide a full list after a ceasefire.”
Hamas has “no idea” how many hostages it holds but somehow knows the exact number of “civilians killed” after every Israeli airstrike.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Various search and destroy operations being conducted by IDF across Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF seized 85,170 Hezbollah military items from over 30 villages in southern Lebanon throughout the [ground operation], the army said on Wednesday.
Many of these items were presented on exhibit to The Jerusalem Post and other reporters on Tuesday at a base in the North.
Among these items are 2,250 larger rockets, 6,840 smaller anti-tank missiles, and rockets, of which 340 are more advanced Kornet missiles.
There are also 60 anti-aircraft missiles and 20 vehicles, often with the capability of firing a dozen or multiple dozens of rockets at a time.
The IDF also seized 9,000 improvised explosives, 5,560 guns, and around 60,800 electronic items, equipment, and documents.
The IDF also said on Wednesday that it killed 3,851 Hezbollah terrorists and wounded around 9,000 since the start of the current war.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-56/
NOTE - A lot of it was found in ‘civilian’ homes in the region.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IAF hit sites in the northern Lebanon / Syria border region, targeting weapon collection that represent munitions smuggled into Lebanon from Syria following the collapse of the Assad govt.
IDF is reportedly pulling back some of its forces in Syria and consolidating them. In other reports, IDF is moving south to get closer to Druze communities that reached out for Israeli protection.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Growing reports of fighting between the PA and gangs in both Jenin and Ramallah.
The Jenin Brigade issues a rare statement, directly threatening the Palestinian security forces: “If you enter the Jenin camp, we will blow ourselves up against you. Jihad is our only path to resist.”
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis are declaring war against the US and Israel as the UAE and Saudi forces have begun shelling them.
See “Saudi Arabia” below for more.
***
Breaking - Dozens of Israeli planes are attacking in Yemen right now. They have targeted tens of sites, including oil infrastructure, power stations, military and government buildings, and the Houthi controlled airport.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas is back to its same old,. same old games with the hostages, producing nothing until there is a cease fire, then they will delay further. This is not a good faith action by them at all - no surprise here.
In Lebanon, internal stresses against Hezbollah continue. May well reach a near civil war level. They are cut off of Iran and only a trickle of arms/munitions may have gotten in from Syria since the fall of Assad.
Not seeing the Lebanese army directly dealing with Hezbollah elements in S Lebanon. There are reports that they’ve seized facilities and arms from smaller, more independent factions but not Hezbollah directly.
Situation with Syria is currently relatively stable. Some pro-rebel ‘civilians’ making protests against the Israeli presence over the holiday, possibly resulting in the pull back of IDF forces in some sectors.
The Houthi situation changed as I was typing. Currently waves of IAF jets hitting a wide variety of targets. Reports suggest that this is the start of a larger, longer campaign against them.
Reminder: every time Israel conducts a long-distance run against the Houthis, it’s practice for strikes on regime targets in Iran.
Iraq -
The Iraqi federal government is reportedly reconsidering its request for US forces to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2026 because it is concerned that the fall of Bashar al Assad in Syria threatens Iraqi security.
Saudi Arabia –
Partially confirmed. Saudi forces are reportedly shelling Houthi positions in northern Yemen’s Sa’ada province, according to Houthi and Saudi media. This coincides with fierce clashes ongoing over the past 24 hours between the Saudi and UAE-backed forces and the Houthis in the Taizz province in southwest Yemen, the Yemeni National Army says. Eight Houthi fighters were reportedly killed in the clashes, in what appears to be the most intense escalation in the simmering internal war in Yemen.
OBSERVATION - Intense air campaign by Israel and perhaps the US (after Jan 20) may provide the leverage for SA and UAE forces to put down Houthi in their zones of influence.
Syria -
Things are showing signs that the ‘unity’ of the rebel force is beginning to fray.
The Kurdish-led administration in northeast Syria (Northern Syria ) on Thursday called for protecting Syria’s diversity and plurality, a day after violent protests across several provinces over an alleged attack on an Alawite (the sect that Assad belonged to) shrine in Aleppo province.
Demonstrations in Jableh, Latakia and Tartous in protest against burning of shrine of founder of Alawite sect in Aleppo.
Intense clashes rage into their second day in Tartus, Syria, between Syrian Arab Army resistance cells and forces loyal to the new government.
Syrian Interior Ministry: We have started a campaign in areas of the Damascus countryside to withdraw illegal weapons
***
Islamist elements have started attacking Christian communities, most notably burning down Christmas trees and decorations. The rebel govt claims to have arrested the perpetrators.
***
An Iraqi delegation headed by Hamid al-Shatri, head of the National Intelligence Service, met with officials of the new Syrian administration in Damascus, confirms Iraqi government spokesperson Basim al-Awadi. “The Iraqi delegation discussed developments on the Syrian scene and the requirements for security and stability on the common border between Iraq and Syria”
***
Turkey will try to repair Syrian railway lines to Damascus, connecting two countries to each other, and reviving parts of Hejaz railway project, says Turkish Transportation Minister
***
ISIS forces have been busy collecting arms and munitions abandoned by pro-Assad and Russian forces.
***
𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗛𝗮𝘆’𝗮𝘁 𝗧𝗮𝗵𝗿𝗶𝗿 𝗮𝗹-𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗺 (𝗛𝗧𝗦)
- Turkish armed forces are expected to withdraw from Idlib (northeastern Syria, near Aleppo).
- Turkey will establish two large military bases in the vicinity of the city of Homs, equipped with air defense systems.
- Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized that this move is a “preventive step against Israeli airstrikes.”
***
According to ISW - Russian forces have reportedly withdrawn completely from most of their positions in Syria, including their base at Qamishli in northern Syria. Russia’s only remaining positions are at Hmeimim and Tartus along the Syrian coast.
***
The new Syrian leadership intends to go to international courts to demand huge compensation from Iran worth $300 billion for supporting the country’s former president, Bashar al-Assad. According to reports, the lawsuit against Iran is due to its “policy towards Syrians and Syrian infrastructure.”
Syrian authorities accuse Tehran of carrying out “criminal and arbitrary acts” against Syrian civilians, as part of its cooperation with the Assad regime.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - While trying to project a more ‘moderate’ image to the world, it has a way to go to get all the sects under its control and protect minority groups like the Kurds and Christians. The religious foundations of the HTS are radical islam, so protecting those minorities may be more lip service than reality.
The defense pact with Turkey is going to place the new Syrian govt under a lot of obligations that may not be in line with governing the country. Just like demands for Iran and Russia on the old regime, Turkish demands will rise in prominence. All evidence is that Turkish actions are to ensure a avenue of advance southward into Israel and Jordan - a necessity for it to exert power as the new caliphate.
See more on “Turkey” below
Turkey –
Turkey has decided to allow parliament’s pro-Kurdish party to hold talks with PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan on his island prison: Daily Sabah
***
Erdogan:
“Sooner or later, Israel will withdraw from the territories it occupied in Syria and will be forced to do so.”
OBSERVATION - The reported Turkish investment in Syria (described above) is substantial but may well be hampered by a very weak economy. Some economists have noted Turkey is in an official recession - with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Israel has a window to hit Iran before Turkish ADA assets get fully established. It is doubtful that Turkey would give Tehran warning of the passage of IAF enroute to Iran, but it does pose a threat to the OPSEC of any operation - and perhaps may result in Turkish attempts to shoot IAF down.
This all boils down to indicate that potentially in the near future (1 to 2 years) direct confrontations between Israel and Turkey may ensue.
Mexico -
Reports of more train jumpers headed north to the US border. This is part of the illegal effort to get in before Trump takes over. Another segment still seems unwilling to risk it only to be deported back.
Gee, I wonder if there's a connection... /s
Globalism / Great Reset –
Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, announces that he will not be able to leave Yemen after the Israeli raids on Sanaa airport and the damage of an organization plane
OBSERVATION - He can walk to an adjacent country . . . .
***
The Bilderberg Group - a secret organization of the global elite - is undergoing a leadership transformation as Donald Trump prepares to retake the White House.
Now a major power shift is afoot as Stoltenberg, who attended his first Bilderberg summit in 2002, has been tapped for his expertise in transatlantic strategy.
It comes as Trump, whose frequent attacks on NATO have sparked outrage in Europe, ascends once more to the Oval Office. The president-elect has been adamant that he will no longer spend billions in US taxpayer money to fund other countries’ wars.
Stoltenberg’s tenure at NATO was dominated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and he proudly claimed to have overseen ‘the largest reinforcement of our collective defense in a generation.’
OBSERVATION - These ‘secret’ groups are appendages of the greater global hierarchy that have merged together over the years.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
In yet another attempt to impede Donald Trump from gaining the presidency, on Thursday, The Hill ran an opinion piece by two lawyers, one of whom had served as president of the New York City Bar, in which they urged Congress to reject the Electoral College vote in order to stop Donald Trump from being inaugurated as president.
OBSERVATION - Cross over with “Political Front”, bur more impactful here. Is this possible? Obviously to the two leftist attorney who wrote this opinion piece the answer is yes. Would such an action throw the country into a state of civil war - hell yes. The supporting actions they claim supporting their cause have been pretty well whittled down to bogus and falsified because of the lawfare used by the left. There are leftist democrats who are desperate enough to potentially try this attack. My concerns are that there are enough anti-Trump RINOs that would be willing to join them.
BTW, this is nearly identical to what they claimed Trump attempted on J6, 2020.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
A secret Pfizer report on the safety of its Covid mRNA “vaccine” has revealed that the pharmaceutical giant has long known that its injections have caused a huge surge in heart failure among the vaccinated.
National regulators around the world have been sitting on the Pfizer report about Covid “vaccine” safety for several months.
The report contains internal study data that reveals shocking red flags for public safety.
The study found that the vaccinated cohort has a 23-40% higher risk of suffering heart-related conditions.
Alarmingly, the risk is higher than in Pfizer’s previous report, meaning heart failure cases are increasing over time since vaccination.
The report in question is Pfizer’s C4591021 “Interim Report 5” dated March 12th, 2024.
https://slaynews.com/news/secret-pfizer-report-reveals-40-spike-heart-conditions-among-covid-vaxxed/
OBSERVATION - The evidence continues to grow. Pfizer has taken actions to hide the lethality’s of its so called vaccine. These actions IIRC would void any protection given to it under the emergency use declarations by the US govt.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Schumer bragging about the weaponized judges biden has appointed being the back bone for a new round of lawfare against the Trump administration.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden is headed out on vacation to the Virgin Islands.
No clue where harris is hiding at.
North/South Korea –
South Korea has voted to impeach its acting president Han Duck-soo, two weeks after parliament voted to impeach its President Yoon Suk Yeol.
There were rowdy scenes in the National Assembly after the speaker announced that only 151 votes out of 300 would be needed to pass the impeachment bill, as opposed to the 200 votes required to impeach President Yoon.
Lawmakers from Yoon and Han’s PPP ruling party crowded around the speaker’s chair in protest and boycotted the vote.
A total of 192 lawmakers voted for Han’s impeachment.
Prime Minister Han took over the role after President Yoon was impeached by parliament following his failed attempt to impose martial law on 3 December.
But opposition MPs have accused Han of refusing to appoint judges to Yoon’s impeachment trial, effectively stalling proceedings.
Han has agreed to step aside, which means the country’s finance minister, Choi Sang-mok, will become acting president.
Jean McKenzie reports from Seoul.
OBSERVATION - The opposition lawmakers are strongly in favor of snuggling up to China in a more favorable manner. This is their version of ‘lawfare’ as a means to out remaining elements of the right who hold govt offices.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reported on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 24 Shahed’s launched, 13 were shot down by regular air defense and another 11 were supressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 27/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1650 men
+14 tanks
+18 APVs
+22 artillery systems
+1 AD system
Reports that Ukraine captured (in the Kursk region) a wounded N Korean soldier, who later died of his injuries. Confirmed by S Korean intelligence. First confirmed.
Summary —
Moderately high attack tempo judging from the casualties. Drones are down from their average 60-80/day range.
Weather conditions are warming and drying out, could result in increased Russia efforts and attacks.
In pre-trump positioning, Russia continues to maintain that nothing short of total surrender of Ukraine is the only acceptable condition for a cease fire and peace talks.
Europe / NATO General –
Finnish authorities detained a ship linked to neighboring Russia as they investigate whether it damaged a Baltic Sea power cable and several data cables, police said, in the latest incident involving disruption of key infrastructure in the region.
Finnish police and border guards boarded the vessel, the Eagle S, early Thursday and took over the command bridge, Helsinki Police Chief Jari Liukku told a news conference. The vessel was being held in Finnish territorial waters, police said.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/finland-estonia-baltic-sea/2024/12/26/id/1192902/
One of the tanker’s anchors was found to be torn off, which could have caused the damage to the cables.
Estonia’s Navy has launched a naval operation into the Gulf of Finland to protect the EstLink 1 undersea electric cable, after its twin, Estlink 2, was damaged in an event authorities are calling “sabotage”.
NATO, along with Finnish forces, are also preparing a response.
OBSERVATION - Second major incident within the past few weeks. Apparently deliberate sabotage operations by Russia against NATO elements in the Baltic Region. Special note - Russian naval bases left accessible are those in the Baltic.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More strikes against the Houthi’s are expected in the near term.
- Hamas still thinks Hospitals provide them protection from Israel.
- Increasing evidence that the Lebanese govt is not holding to its pledges to shut down Hezbollah.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The Israeli army says it has launched a new operation at Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza’s Jabalia, after identifying the presence of Hamas operatives in the area.
IDF spokesman on the operation at Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza:
“IDF forces, guided by intelligence from Military Intelligence and the Shin Bet, launched an operation near Kamal Adwan Hospital in Jabaliya. The action was based on intelligence indicating the presence of terrorists, terror infrastructure, and related activities in the area.”
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanon media says that Hezbollah has started to violate ceasefire agreement with Israel by smuggling money and arms from Iran through Beirut airport, citing incidents on Monday, Dec. 23. Lebanon’s puppet PM already started reneging on promises of disarming Hezbollah.
The IDF confirms early morning airstrikes on Hezbollah arms transfer sites at the Janta crossing on the Syria-Lebanon border, accusing Hezbollah of using civilian infrastructure for terror activities targeting Israelis.
Israeli airstrikes targeted three sites in Qousaya, Beqaa Valley, Lebanon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Yesterday’s airstrikes on Sana’a and Hodeidah, involved more than 100 Israeli aircraft.
Israeli officials: “Expect an increase in launches from Yemen, especially after the attack.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
It is becoming increasingly apparent that the govt of Lebanon is not interested in holding up its end of the cease fire agreement by disarming and disbanding Hezbollah. Israel in response has started increasing its own actions, particularly those to interdict supplies coming in from Syria. The clock is ticking for the Lebanese govt, long under the thumb of Hezbollah, as Netanyahu has essentially said that the ceasefire is a stop gap until Trump takes office, then conditions may change.
Israel hammered Houthi civilian infrastructure again, in attacks designed in part to shut down resupply from Iran via air and sea. Israel seems to be planning a more systematic campaign versus the ones against Hamas and Hezbollah that focused on quick response to intel. Can’t quite do that when the target area is 2000Km away. Israel has said the leadership of the Houthi’s is the prime target. The question is how serious are the Houthi’s about that threat and how good is their OPSEC?
Logistically, these attacks are very similar to what will be needed for future attacks against Iran, so I’m sure Iran is looking very close at these operations.
Syria -
Sectarian violence and pay backs are growing against minority religions and clans.
Syria’s new rebel leadership continues to make sounds of peace towards Israel, however, just a few years ago these same leaders where calling for the destruction of the Jewish nation and genocide.
What a shame.....
Trump has our support...he can do this - we can help.
With the new year fast approaching, the level of uncertainty in the world has not gone down with the election of Trump. In fact, in many instances they have gotten worse.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Bill Gates requested to visit Trump at MKL. No word if Trump has OK’s it. Gate as we know, is a major WEF/globalist player focusing a lot on essentially biological warfare via bogus vaccines. Also a big bug fan, wanting to eliminate meat from our diets for global warming.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
Holiday retail sales in the U.S. increased 3.8%, compared to last year, according to a report Thursday from Mastercard.
The major credit card company marks the holiday as Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 and said the number is preliminary and excludes car sales.
Online sales have also increased about 6.7%, over the same period, Mastercard also reports.
The company attempted to suggest the gains by saying customers who had the money to spend did so, but were looking for bargains, and retailers were wiling to respond with promotions.
Last year, retail sales increased by 3.1%, according to Yahoo Finance.
https://justthenews.com/events/retail-sales-during-holidays-increased-year-2024-mastercard-report
OBSERVATION -
A 0.7% increase over last years spending. Pretty flat considering how the economy is supposed to be booming - according to the democrats.
IMHO this reflect the continued stress on people’s budgets, and not happy days are here again.
***
Speaking of happy days, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development reports that homelessness is up 18% this year.
POLITICAL FRONT –
“Extraordinary measures” will be needed to keep the US from defaulting on its obligations if the nation’s debt ceiling isn’t raised or suspended by mid-January, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Congress Friday.
Yellen, in a letter to House and Senate leaders, noted that the nation’s debt ceiling — the total amount of money the federal government is authorized to borrow to pay for obligations such as Social Security and Medicare benefits — was suspended in June 2023 but will once again be in effect on Jan. 1.
“Treasury currently expects to reach the new limit between January 14 and January 23, at which time it will be necessary for Treasury to start taking extraordinary measures,” Yellen wrote.
OBSERVATION - This is why the debt ceiling was part of the debate over the CR. It was dropped. Now, congress has to face it perhaps even before Trump is sworn in. Such timing is by design and all the spending pork the democrats added in the original 1500 page CR was designed to accelerate the date the ceiling is hit.
This could be the opening salvo by the democrats to burn the economy down from under Trump - country be da###d
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden took 570 vacation days so far during his presidency, 40% of his entire term.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024
See China below
Illegal Immigration –
Some central American nations like Mexico and Guatemala are making plans to receive deported illegals once Trump gets back into office.
China –
Just when you thought life couldn’t have gotten any stranger -
Chinese home appliance manufacturer Ecovacs is criticized for reports that its robot vacuum chases pets and uses offensive language. Meanwhile, Xiaomi and Aigos smart air fryers have been found to store user data on Chinese servers, raising growing concerns about security vulnerabilities in Chinese-made appliances.
According to industry sources on Sunday, the problem of personal data leaks from Chinese home appliances remains ongoing. These devices are known to store user voice data and lifestyle patterns and are vulnerable to external hacking.
OBSERVATION - Chinese espionage is well known, but hacking the robot vacuum to chase the family dog and collecting secrets from an air fryer are just over the top.
Chinese collection hardware/software is embedded across many items, but they must be hoping for a golden bullet in that some top level target is spilling the beans to his air fryer.
Japan –
The United States and Japan have unveiled new guidelines for “extended” deterrence, citing an “increasingly severe strategic and nuclear threat environment” that reflects heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific, where China, Russia, and North Korea have taken steps to modernize their arsenals and project power.
The guidelines, unveiled on Dec. 27 through coordinated statements from the U.S. State Department and Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, underscore the two nations’ commitment to reinforcing their alliance to maintain regional stability and deter conflict.
“The Alliance will continue to explore how best to ensure extended deterrence is strong and credible,” read the identical statements from the two countries.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
(FO) Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who oversees Russia’s arms controls, has warned the incoming Trump Administration against resuming nuclear testing after accusing President-elect Donald Trump of taking a “radical” position on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The warning comes at a time when Russia, China, and the U.S. are modernizing their nuclear arsenals as Cold War arms treaties crumble. Some arms control experts fear the U.S. will return to nuclear testing as a way to develop new weapons while sending a signal to geopolitical rivals. During his first term, Trump expressed interest in conducting the first U.S. nuclear test since 1992.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched a Shahed drone attack (as usual). Out of 16 Shahed drones, 15 were shot down by regular air defense and the last one was suppressed by electronic warfare. One downed drone damaged the property of a company.
Russian losses per 28/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1690 men
+7 tanks
+19 APVs
+29 artillery systems
Ukrainian Air Forces claim strike at the warehouse with Shahed UAVs in Oryol region
In Russia’s Voronezh region at least 10 explosions were reported, halting train operations due to railway damage. Debris also landed at “Voronezhsintezkauchuk,” part of the SIBUR corporation, which produces thermoplastic elastomers.
Russian Ministry of defense claims 56 UAVs were shot down over overnight
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
US say that North Korean troops are committing suicide rather than being captured by Ukrainian troops in Kursk region
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian efforts continue to be centered primarily in this region.
Kherson Front -
Russian troops have attempted landing operation at Kozatsky island in Kherson region, but were repelled, - Ukrainian military spokesperson
Summary —
Moderately high attack tempo judging from the casualties.
Continued rumors of Russian offensives focused on Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Kherson would be a tough nut to crack, requiring a forced river crossing of the Dniper River. Zaporizhzhia could be more practical, given the reports of Russian equipment moving northward out of Crimea. However, Russia has a critical personnel shortage, driving its main offensive in the Pokrovsk and Kursk regions. To get the numbers needed for any significant additional offensive, they would have to greatly increase recruiting, import more foreign fighters and strip portions of the other fronts. If Zaporizhzhia develops, the likelihood of the Kerch Bridge being targeted for final destruction greatly increases.
Europe / NATO General –
“Hi-tech” Russian signals intelligence equipment was reportedly carried by the tanker Eagle S, currently in custody after reportedly cutting the Estlink-2 cable in the Baltic, per Lloyd’s List.
“They were monitoring all Nato naval ships and aircraft,” Lloyd’s List was told.
OBSERVATION - Old tactic carried over from the Soviet Union era. They stuffed SIGINT equipment into just about everything they could.
Pakistan –
See “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan “ below
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire / hostage talks continue to spin apart.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Overnight, the IDF’s Gaza Division launched a new operation against Hamas in Beit Hanoun in the Strip’s north, the military says. The IDF says the operation is being carried out “following intelligence information about the presence of terrorists and terror infrastructure in the area, and as part of the effort to ensure the security of the residents of the border communities.”
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Continued Israeli security force operations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Israeli army announces the interception of a missile launched from Yemen before it entered Israeli territory
Explosions have been reported in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa.
It’s not an Israeli attack!
It appears to be aUS raid on Houthi targets in Sana’a Yemen.
I’ve not seen any details yet.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkey asks Israel to create deconfliction mechanism with Israeli army in Syria, similar to Israeli arrangement with Russia, N12 News reports
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
In spite of recent Israeli airstrikes, Houthi’s continue to fire one ballistic missile per night at Tel Aviv. Stopping such attacks is very difficult as the US found during Desert Shield/Storm. A single TEL and a hidden supply is all that is needed. Without eyes on the site and the ability to respond in a timely manner, the Houthi can continue this part of the game for a while.
However, how long the Houthi will be able to sustain their operations is being constrained by the recent attacks. Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea region are at a low. They are no longer able to receive material support from Iran and the loss of additional electrical generating units is forcing Houthi resources to support its civilian population.
I expect more Israeli air strikes as long as the Houthi’s throw missiles at them.
Iran is still sweating another Israeli airstrike, and has been lying low to avoid additional attention. I suggested that Israel is also using the Houthi strikes as preparatory exercises for a soon strike against Iran.
It is still my guess that Iran is trying to covertly move quickly towards the development of a nuclear device, and a means with which to deploy it against Israel or other Gulf state as a counter threat to an Israeli strike.
Israel is cranking up more search and destroy ops in Gaza - particularly the north. The ultimate objective is to essentially clear the area of all Hamas as well as most of the civilians as a way to create another buffer zone.
Hamas continues to drag its feet on the hostage issue, backtracking many earlier offers. Unconfirmed reports that Sinwar’s brother has taken over negotiations and is shifting to a hardliner position.
No big change in the status in Lebanon. Lebanon hasn’t been doing its part, so Israel continues to liquidate Hezbollah sites in S Lebanon under their control. Because Hezbollah had embedded so many civilian homes and facilities with rockets, arms and munitions, Israel is taking their time to empty them and then blow them up. There wont be much left for lebanese returnees to come back for. Israel has spared communities that resisted Hezbollah’s efforts to militarize their homes.
Syria -
More fighting between remnant pro-Assad / pro-Iran elements and HTS affiliated forces.
In the north, Turkish back militias continue to fight Druze forces. Turkish military buildup reportedly along the Turkish/Syrian border continues concerns of Turkish invasion against the Kurds in the region.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Tension in Pakistan-Taliban relations has been growing with scattered border fights over the past few weeks, Now, a massive deployment of Taliban forces on the border of Pakistan is underway
Heavy clashes are reported this morning between the Taliban and Pakistani Army on the border with the Khost and Paktia Provinces of Southern Afghanistan; with Taliban officials claiming that their forces have launched an operation into Pakistan, as retaliation for several airstrikes by the Pakistani Air Force against southeastern Afghanistan on Christmas Eve. So far, the Taliban claims to have captured 2 Pakistani military outposts, while causing significant casualties among Pakistani forces.
OBSERVATION - Tensions have grown since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as Pakistan has tried to move Taliban refugees out of the country. These refugees seek to radicalize border areas they settled down in, opposing the current Paki govt.
Some observers note that Pakistan is a nuclear equipped nation. Current fighting doesn’t warrant use of their nukes.
Mexico -
As Mexico braces for the return of President-elect Donald Trump, Mexican officials wonder if Trump’s threats of military action against the drug cartels will become a reality, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
According to former Defense Secretary Mark Esper’s memoir, Trump had floated the idea of using the military to get rid of drug labs owned by cartels during his first administration but was ultimately talked out of it. This time, Mexican officials are cautious of Trump’s plans resurfacing.
Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, quickly shot down the idea of U.S. military assault.“There won’t be an invasion,” Sheinbaum said at a recent news conference. “It’s not going to happen.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/mexico-trump-military/2024/12/27/id/1193115/
OBSERVATION - This could unfold as the largest action against Mexican terrorists since Pancho Villa.
Misc of Note –
Drones - again.
Radiation levels have dramatically increased in New York City after the “mysterious” drone sightings were discovered hovering around the East Coast in recent weeks. The new revelations result in officials warning Americans to “prepare for the worst.”
According to GQ Electronics’ Geiger Counter World Map, high emissions levels were detected near the Bronx and the Upper West Side of New York City. The radiation reading scale measured 1048 counts-per-minute (CPM), or the number of particles detected. This exceeds the average number of particles detected by the 200 counts-per-minute safety threshold. In comparison, the average person is usually exposed to background radiation that measures about five to 60 CPM.
OBSERVATION - These reported radiation spikes were part of the ‘evidence’ behind the discussion that these drones were nuke sniffers. I’m assuming Townhall did a modicum of verification before going forward with its article. So I thought its association with the drone flap was worth a second look.
Geiger Counter World Map is created by GQ Electronics LLC, the technology company founded in June, 2010, with the head office located at Seattle, WA, USA. GQ specialize in cutting edge electronic tools & instruments and main product lines encompass Geiger Counter Nuclear Detectors, EMF meter with RF spectrum analyzer, embedded device tool and etc.
I checked the GQ website as I typed this and found that these aberrant readings are gone and everything is at ‘background’ levels.
I did find some interesting info on one of their support forums chats that is open to the public - Dated 12/16/24
“Numerous people are manually entering false high CMP values in the map in order to create fear for the purpose of click baiting & accumulating likes on numerous online platforms with the claim of high radiation in those areas.
The GMCMap now has so many false manual entries that it is no longer a viable source to check world radiation rates.
Secondly, People that see these fake posts are going to the GMCMap to verify the claims which has made the site extremely overloaded and slow.”
https://www.gqelectronicsllc.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=10705#google_vignette
The conversation also indicates that fake data being reported across the country - matching stories in the social media of the same. One such fake post referenced -
Simple, quick internet search pretty much blows the whole radiation narrative out of the water. So why did Townhall go forward with the article? Laziness to do 5 minutes of search?
The radiation ‘spikes’ now appear to be bogus, inputted manually. This leaves one to question - why? To play along with the whole drone and dirty nuke theory? Purposeful disinformation?
I’m also noting that the drone flap has settled down considerably.
I’m still convinced that at the core, hostile intelligence recon was being conducted. The rest coming from a pile on of hobbyists and hysteria.
Easy solution.
Don't buy *smart* devices.
Re: Chinese-made Internet of Things (IoT) things phoning home
Advanced home networking allow use of VLANs to prevent this. It is beyond the abilities of 95%+ of home users. There’s an (automated by AI?) business opportunity here.
I can't imagine that TPTB would tell GQ to report that there's nothing to see here, or esle!
“Numerous people are manually entering false high CMP values in the map in order to create fear for the purpose of click baiting & accumulating likes on numerous online platforms with the claim of high radiation in those areas.
Nice cover story, eh?
The GMCMap now has so many false manual entries that it is no longer a viable source to check world radiation rates.
And don't you peons dare to dispute the spike with pre-scrubbing data!
Thanks Godzilla
I think the drone flap calmed down when Trump said 'our side' knew who it was and chose not to talk. I'm guessing one of the things Trump will tell us on day one is who was behind the drones. Since Biden's still President, I'm guessing there's a good chance it's the Chinese. The Chinese would have the most money etc to buy off that creep. Then, I'm hoping it's our people doing dry runs... we'll know soon.
I'm amazed Trump wanted this job considering all the problems that are being dumped on his plate. If Trump gets half the MAGA agenda accomplished, and saves the country from war and bankruptcy, he'll be the greatest President we've ever had...
2025 is fast approaching. What kind of chaos will it bring?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Certification of the election is coming next month. There are some rumblings on the left about protesting, but nothing significant is building. I expect more violent and widespread riots/protests on Jan 20.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
New Years Eve celebrations - Dec 31/Jan 1
***
Note - added warning for potential terror attacks on New Years Eve. Particularly large group gatherings like Times Square NYC.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
CDC raising more fears over modified ‘bird flu’ concerns.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024
The White House confirmed that a U.S. telecommunications firm was hacked by China as part of an espionage campaign, resulting in government officials in Beijing gaining access to private texts and calls from an unknown number of Americans.
This is the ninth U.S. telecoms company that has been hacked in the operation known as Salt Typhoon, according to The Associated Press. Dozens of other nations have also been affected by it.
https://apnews.com/article/united-states-china-hacking-espionage-c5351ef7c2207785b76c8c62cde6c513
OBSERVATION - The article doesn’t identify the telecom hit by the hack. However, the number and aggressiveness of the attacks over the past year could well represent a precursor to something much bigger that could be triggered in the event of an action against Taiwan or the like.
Illegal Immigration –
Sanctuary state governors and mayors continue to scheme ways to prevent ICE from finding and arresting illegals within their jurisdictions.
Meanwhile some unconfirmed reports that another citizen riding the NYC subway was attacked by an illegal who tried to set him on fire.
North/South Korea –
Politics getting even more brutal as the leftist majority in the parliament appears to be seeking a way to completely outlaw and banish the right from any an all participation in govt.
Russia -
*****
putin celebrates 25 years of being in power over Russia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, another Shahed drone attack. Out of 10 launched, 9 were shot down. In addition, 10 S-300/400 ballistic missiles were launched at Ukraine. Damage caused by these missiles is unknown.
Russian losses per 29-12-24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1730 men
+5 tanks
+11 APVs
+42 artillery systems
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces have renewed their efforts on the northern side of the Pokrovsk salient.
Zaporizhzhia Axis -
Ukrainian forces recently conducted a HIMARS strike against a Russian staff meeting in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, reportedly killing three Russian officers, following Ukrainian warnings about the possibility of renewed Russian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Summary —
Russian losses increased while the broader level of fighting dropped. Attacks in the Kursk region for example down to about 20-25 per day from over 50 a week ago. Major Russian push continues in Pokrovsk region. So far, reports indicate little to no success there either.
Russian milbloggers are expressing concerns over rumors going thru Russian forces of an impending Ukrainian offensive. Top candidates for such include Kursk (expansion) and Zaporizhzhia. I consider an attempt to have some degree of credibility. Zelenski is having challenges keeping the western supporters behind him, particularly since Ukraine has essentially remained very much on the defensive, with the exception of the Kursk assault. Many are beginning to think the fight is out of the Ukraine army. Such a second offensive - especially if successful - could rebuild morale and confidence. Problem is, Ukraine is hard pressed to maintain their current status, let alone gather the force necessary to launch an offensive big enough to shift much of the status quo their way.
Speaking of offensives, Russia is reportedly making plans for their ‘winter operations’. Essentially, this would be just more of the same meat assaults along the eastern front and continued efforts to take Pokrovsk and drive Ukraine off Russia territory in Kursk.
Russia is pushing their personnel envelope very severely given that in the summer they needed 30,000 replacements per month and now they are needing 45K - 60K per month.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO sources suggest Russia may be practicing attacks on Finland and NATO’s eastern flank, aiming for “historical territories” like the 18th-century empire. Threats include missile strikes on Helsinki and moves toward the Kymijoki River.
OBSERVATION - This is almost RUMINT material. Under current conditions the thought of Russia trying to pull something like this off while still deeply engaged in Ukraine is almost unthinkable. For an additional war like this, putin would need to put the nation on full war footings - far beyond the stealth operations he’s employed to get men and equipment to the front. This would further mobilize NATO, which has a lot of men and equipment capable of repulsing any Russia incursion.
Now with that said, should some sort of cease fire / peace effort bear fruit, Russia could reallocate forces for such an adventure, if putin is really serious about it.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF captures over 250 Hamas terrorists at the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Over 200 Hamas terrorists surrendered today at Kamal Adwan “hospital” in Gaza
IDF and Shin Bet: We completed a joint operation at the Hamas terror headquarters at Kamal Adwan Hospital: The forces arrested more than 240 terrorists in the area, following intelligence information that the hospital area had returned to being used as a Hamas terror stronghold and a shelter for terrorists, despite repeated calls to refrain from military use of medical facilities.
***
A few rockets were fired by Hamas towards Israel from N Gaza.
In response, the Israeli Air Force carried out a precision-strike last night on a ready-to-fire rocket launcher in the Beit Hanoun area of Northern Gaza, that had previously been used on Saturday to launch long-range rockets at both southern and central Israel.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
2024 in summary was an incredible year. Beginning in September with the infamous pager attack on high level Hezbollah and affiliated, Israel fully decapatated the leadership, destroyed their rocket / missile threat to the point where they only managed to fire a few rockets every day, struck their banking system and entered S Lebanon. All of these actions essentially forced Hezbollah to plea for the current ceasefire - with Iran’s blessing. The typical plan was to use the ceasefire to reorganize and rearm their forces with supplies and support coming in from Syria. This under the cover of Lebanese military - strongly subordinate to Hezbollah. Then something worse happened in December - anti-Assad, Anti-Iran, anti-Hezbollah rebels swept into power, cutting the lucrative land routes into Lebanon for resupply off.
As 2024 ends, Hezbollah still exists, severely degraded as a combat force and essentially isolated from getting the support it needs to rebuild from Iran. In some respects Hezbollah is a wounded animal that Israel will need to address further, but that is unlikely to happen until Trump returns to the WH
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Continued Israeli security force operations.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The major key player so far are the Houthi who’ve continued to poke the bear with a ballistic missile attack at 2AM on a nearly daily basis. Israel is reportedly planning the next round of strikes. I’ve noted that these attacks are great practice for their eventual strike again against Iran, given the equivalent distances and refueling/logistics necessary.
Iran for its part, seems to be more focused on Syria than Israel. The threat of another Israeli strike still hangs over their heads though.
Hamas still getting picked apart to the bone in Gaza. The recent action at the Kamal Adwan Hospital shows they are still clinging to the hope that Israel will avoid such facilities over global condemnation. That hasn’t stopped Israel so far and each time they come back with the proof of illegal Hamas usage for war. Even the hospital director was a senior member of Hamas.
Hamas continues to walk back promises on the hostage issue. Any breakthrough before Trump returns to the WH are growing more unlikely.
Hezbollah is reportedly falling back on its illegal drug trade to raise funds to rebuild. Even before the war, they were major drug producers and exporters in the region, affiliated in some ways to the drug trade in Syria. This helps keep fighters on the payroll and ‘loyal’.
For the immediate time frame, I see a continuation of Israeli strikes against the Houthi. I don’t see any breakthrough in the hostage / ceasefire talks with Hamas. biden regime is losing leverage over Israel on concessions to hamas each day the Trump inauguration gets closer.
Syria -
Ahmed al-Sharaa, Commander-in-Chief of Syria’s new administration, announced during a televised interview that Kurdish forces are to be integrated into Syria’s Ministry of Defense and negotiations are ongoing
OBSERVATION - The details of this merger will be complicated with Turkey’s ongoing invasion of Kurdish regions.
***
Holding elections in Syria could take up to four years, Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa said in an interview with Al Arabiya on Sunday, the first time he has commented on a possible timetable for elections since Bashar al-Assad was ousted this month.
Drafting a new constitution could take up to three years, Sharaa said in excerpts from the interview with the Saudi state-owned broadcaster. He also said it would take about a year for Syrians to see drastic changes.
Sharaa leads the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group that ousted Bashar al-Assad on Dec. 8, ending decades of Assad family rule and a 13-year civil war. He said HTS will be dissolved in a national dialog conference.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/syria/2024/12/29/id/1193204/
OBSERVATION - In reality, a period like this to move to a more democratic govt isn’t totally unprecedented, though I think the process is twice as long as they are projecting. What complicates the action is the ongoing sectarian revenge/counter revenge fighting and the Turkish aggression in the north. If the new govt is serious about welcoming the Kurds into the mix, they will have to step up and tell the Turks to stand down. Do they have the back bone to do so to their prime supporter?
***
The HTS-led interim government has thus far failed to prevent individual opposition fighters from targeting members of the Alawite community.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Fighting still reported on the Afghanistan/Pakistan border region.
Turkey –
Reports in Syria - The Turkish army has begun attacking dozens of Kurdish villages in the north of the country
My understanding is that the different factions in Syria are slaughtering each other.
It’s almost complete anarchy there.
Assad’s clan - affiliated with the Alawite sect, located in the coastal area around Tartus. They are getting pretty well picked over. As too any other clan that supported Hezbollah and Iran.
Christian communities being vandalized but not miurdered like they are doing with the Alewites.
I will start the new thread - Threat Matrix 2025 on the first, but it will be light on analysis that day.
Globalism / Great Reset –
A lot of nice words for Jimmy Carter on his death, but in many ways he opened the doors for today’s globalist movement. Changes to the US and world so strong it produced a Reagan response.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
New Years Eve celebrations - Dec 31/Jan 1
***
A suspicious and small and anonymous Telegram account with less than 500 followers wrote in Arabic on Sunday, calling on ostensibly Muslims in the United States, Europe, and Russia to join “brothers in the land of Jihad.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/europe-russia-u-s/2024/12/29/id/1193272/
OBSERVATION - Small accounts can sometimes result in other links. Be alert out there this New Year’s Eve.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
2024 has not been good to Russia.
In spite of attempting to bolster its status in the global order via BRACS and treaties with China and N Korea, it has lost some strategic situations.
Earlier this year it essentially abandoned Armenia to Azerbaijan. Then the rug got pulled out from under them in Syria, losing their critical naval and airbases in the region, leaving them scrambling to find replacements.
Its war with Ukraine has been a bloodbath - See Misc below for more details. Russia failed to achieve any of its stated goals.
Economically, things are being held together with bubblegum and bailing wire. Inflation is rampant, its currency is weak and sanctions continue to take a bite out of their manufacturing efforts.
2025 looks to be even rougher with the Trump administration coming back and a continued quagmire in Ukraine.
***
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has dismissed a peace plan put forward by Donald Trump’s administration, which proposed postponing Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years and sending European Peacekeeping Forces to oversee a Demilitarized Zone.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia will end its moratorium on deploying Intermediate- and Shorter-Range Nuclear-Capable Missiles, citing U.S. deployment of similar weapons globally, according to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. This move dismantles the remnants of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a 1987 pact to reduce nuclear arsenals and eliminate missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 Kilometers (310 to 3,417 miles). Lavrov said there are no conditions for strategic dialogue with the U.S., raising fears of a renewed nuclear arms race with Russia, the U.S., and China. The INF Treaty ended in 2019 after U.S. accusations of Russian violations, which Moscow denied. Lavrov announced Russia’s self-moratorium is no longer viable due to U.S. actions.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 43 Shahed drones into Ukraine. A total of 21 were shot down and another 22 were supressed by electronic warfare
Russian losses per 30/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+2010 (!) men
+7 tanks
+22 AFVs
+44 artillery systems
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian attacks increased overnight.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia pressed attacks along the whole front in this sector yesterday.
Summary —
Big jump in Russia casualties over night, possibly associated with increased attacks in the Pokrovsk sector. Russia may be attempting to take advantaged of the improved weather to try to gain more ground. Available reports indicate that these attacks are not accomplishing much other than to increase their casualties.
Russia is sticking to its all or nothing stance on potential ceasefire talks with Trump/US.
Deep war is at a pause on both sides. Not sure the cause as weather suggests conditions are nominal for attacks, so there must be other reasons.
Europe / NATO General –
Finnish Authorities state that they have discovered dozen of kilometers of “Drag Marks” on the Baltic seabed, close to where the Cook Islands-Flagged Oil Tanker, M/T Eagle S, is believed to have used its anchor to sever the “Estlink 2” power cable as well as several telecommunication cables between Finland and Estonia on Wednesday. The ship remains in Finnish custody, as the crew is questioned for their involvement in the “sabotage” believed to have likely been ordered by Russian officials.
Following several Incidents recently of Russian and Chinese linked ships damaging submarine cables in the Baltic Sea; the Prime Minister of Latvia, Evika Siliņa has stated that they may soon begin seizing ships of the Russian “Shadow Fleet” in order to defend critical infrastructure.
OBSERVATION - This can almost be considered to be an act of war by Russia and are asymmetrical attacks on the northern flank of NATO were Russia probably fears that their Baltic Fleet could be prevented from deploying.
The “Shadow Fleet” are ships flagged under other nations but owned by Russian interests that have been used to circumvent economic sanctions.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu had prostate surgery overnight
——— GENERAL ——————————-
PM Netanyahu had prostate surgery overnight and is recovering in a secure bunker beneath an Israeli hospital Reports the surgery was successful.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israeli media quoting the army chief of staff: We do not see an end to the war in Gaza soon
***
The Israeli army confirmed five rockets were launched from the northern Gaza Strip at the southern Israeli town of Sderot. Two rockets were intercepted and the rest likely fell in open areas, the Israeli army said, amid an ongoing increase in rocket launches from Gaza in recent days
Following the latest rocket fire from the northern Gaza Strip, the Israeli army has issued an evacuation warning for civilians in a large area near Jabalia. “Terror organizations are again launching rockets from these areas which have been warned several times in the past”
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army carried out bombing and detonation operations between the towns of Taybeh and Rab Thalatheen in southern Lebanon.
***
Indicators from Israeli new sources that the IDF will remain in S Lebanon past the current deadline.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli army troops operating in southern Syria reportedly advanced into the town of Madinat al-Baath in the Quneitra Governorate. Local Syrian media outlets say that Israeli forces entered several government buildings in the town to search them
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Some Hamas elements in N Gaza have been able to scrape together a few rockets to fire into Israel. The launching sites are within refugee ‘safe zones’, endangering civilians. The rockets are not surprising. Hamas had so many squirreled away that there are some that likely escaped Israeli detection or survived strikes. So now Israel is ordering the displacement of civilians while a strike on the areas is devised.
Houthi’s have quieted down for a while anyway. Israeli Mossad likely busy building databases of critical Houthi targets as all as where the leadership sleeps.
Pretty much quiet on the Hezbollah front, as IDF continues to reduce Hezbollah facilities in S Lebanon.
Syria, action is focused internally and not on Israel.
Iran –
Quiet, very quiet.
Protests have been happening in Tehran over the economy and rampant inflation.
Syria -
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) says Turkey is establishing two new military bases in Manbij and west of the Euphrates River in northern Syria. The Kurdish-led force also claims to have targeted several Turkish positions in the vicinity - Statement by SDF
***
Revenge on Assad supporters continues as the new Rebel govt meets with foreign dignitaries to establish/reestablish ties.
Turkey –
See actions in Syria above
Misc of Note –
I’ve made other reviews in preceding posts on other areas of the Matrix
2024
In review for Ukraine/Russia.
Another bloody, slugfest of a year highlighted by the surprise invasion of Kursk, western OK for use of weapons to strike deeper into Russia and Russia’s use of a developmental intermediate range MIRV on Ukraine.
The Russia offensive did manage to gain ground over the past year but at an extreme cost in men and material. Estimates of personnel losses are around 400K - doubling the total losses for the operation. Ukraine’s losses have been hard to peg, but since the start of the war some estimates have their casualties at around 300K - about 1/3 Russian casualties.
The election of Trump has already forced both sides to the realization that the US is not going to put up with further fighting. How this plays out is yet to be seen.
I complain sometimes about rarely getting off the farm, but after reading your updates, I'm thinking it's the safest place to be these days!
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