2025 is fast approaching. What kind of chaos will it bring?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Certification of the election is coming next month. There are some rumblings on the left about protesting, but nothing significant is building. I expect more violent and widespread riots/protests on Jan 20.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
New Years Eve celebrations - Dec 31/Jan 1
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Note - added warning for potential terror attacks on New Years Eve. Particularly large group gatherings like Times Square NYC.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
CDC raising more fears over modified ‘bird flu’ concerns.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024
The White House confirmed that a U.S. telecommunications firm was hacked by China as part of an espionage campaign, resulting in government officials in Beijing gaining access to private texts and calls from an unknown number of Americans.
This is the ninth U.S. telecoms company that has been hacked in the operation known as Salt Typhoon, according to The Associated Press. Dozens of other nations have also been affected by it.
https://apnews.com/article/united-states-china-hacking-espionage-c5351ef7c2207785b76c8c62cde6c513
OBSERVATION - The article doesn’t identify the telecom hit by the hack. However, the number and aggressiveness of the attacks over the past year could well represent a precursor to something much bigger that could be triggered in the event of an action against Taiwan or the like.
Illegal Immigration –
Sanctuary state governors and mayors continue to scheme ways to prevent ICE from finding and arresting illegals within their jurisdictions.
Meanwhile some unconfirmed reports that another citizen riding the NYC subway was attacked by an illegal who tried to set him on fire.
North/South Korea –
Politics getting even more brutal as the leftist majority in the parliament appears to be seeking a way to completely outlaw and banish the right from any an all participation in govt.
Russia -
*****
putin celebrates 25 years of being in power over Russia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, another Shahed drone attack. Out of 10 launched, 9 were shot down. In addition, 10 S-300/400 ballistic missiles were launched at Ukraine. Damage caused by these missiles is unknown.
Russian losses per 29-12-24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1730 men
+5 tanks
+11 APVs
+42 artillery systems
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces have renewed their efforts on the northern side of the Pokrovsk salient.
Zaporizhzhia Axis -
Ukrainian forces recently conducted a HIMARS strike against a Russian staff meeting in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, reportedly killing three Russian officers, following Ukrainian warnings about the possibility of renewed Russian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Summary —
Russian losses increased while the broader level of fighting dropped. Attacks in the Kursk region for example down to about 20-25 per day from over 50 a week ago. Major Russian push continues in Pokrovsk region. So far, reports indicate little to no success there either.
Russian milbloggers are expressing concerns over rumors going thru Russian forces of an impending Ukrainian offensive. Top candidates for such include Kursk (expansion) and Zaporizhzhia. I consider an attempt to have some degree of credibility. Zelenski is having challenges keeping the western supporters behind him, particularly since Ukraine has essentially remained very much on the defensive, with the exception of the Kursk assault. Many are beginning to think the fight is out of the Ukraine army. Such a second offensive - especially if successful - could rebuild morale and confidence. Problem is, Ukraine is hard pressed to maintain their current status, let alone gather the force necessary to launch an offensive big enough to shift much of the status quo their way.
Speaking of offensives, Russia is reportedly making plans for their ‘winter operations’. Essentially, this would be just more of the same meat assaults along the eastern front and continued efforts to take Pokrovsk and drive Ukraine off Russia territory in Kursk.
Russia is pushing their personnel envelope very severely given that in the summer they needed 30,000 replacements per month and now they are needing 45K - 60K per month.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO sources suggest Russia may be practicing attacks on Finland and NATO’s eastern flank, aiming for “historical territories” like the 18th-century empire. Threats include missile strikes on Helsinki and moves toward the Kymijoki River.
OBSERVATION - This is almost RUMINT material. Under current conditions the thought of Russia trying to pull something like this off while still deeply engaged in Ukraine is almost unthinkable. For an additional war like this, putin would need to put the nation on full war footings - far beyond the stealth operations he’s employed to get men and equipment to the front. This would further mobilize NATO, which has a lot of men and equipment capable of repulsing any Russia incursion.
Now with that said, should some sort of cease fire / peace effort bear fruit, Russia could reallocate forces for such an adventure, if putin is really serious about it.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF captures over 250 Hamas terrorists at the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Over 200 Hamas terrorists surrendered today at Kamal Adwan “hospital” in Gaza
IDF and Shin Bet: We completed a joint operation at the Hamas terror headquarters at Kamal Adwan Hospital: The forces arrested more than 240 terrorists in the area, following intelligence information that the hospital area had returned to being used as a Hamas terror stronghold and a shelter for terrorists, despite repeated calls to refrain from military use of medical facilities.
***
A few rockets were fired by Hamas towards Israel from N Gaza.
In response, the Israeli Air Force carried out a precision-strike last night on a ready-to-fire rocket launcher in the Beit Hanoun area of Northern Gaza, that had previously been used on Saturday to launch long-range rockets at both southern and central Israel.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
2024 in summary was an incredible year. Beginning in September with the infamous pager attack on high level Hezbollah and affiliated, Israel fully decapatated the leadership, destroyed their rocket / missile threat to the point where they only managed to fire a few rockets every day, struck their banking system and entered S Lebanon. All of these actions essentially forced Hezbollah to plea for the current ceasefire - with Iran’s blessing. The typical plan was to use the ceasefire to reorganize and rearm their forces with supplies and support coming in from Syria. This under the cover of Lebanese military - strongly subordinate to Hezbollah. Then something worse happened in December - anti-Assad, Anti-Iran, anti-Hezbollah rebels swept into power, cutting the lucrative land routes into Lebanon for resupply off.
As 2024 ends, Hezbollah still exists, severely degraded as a combat force and essentially isolated from getting the support it needs to rebuild from Iran. In some respects Hezbollah is a wounded animal that Israel will need to address further, but that is unlikely to happen until Trump returns to the WH
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Continued Israeli security force operations.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The major key player so far are the Houthi who’ve continued to poke the bear with a ballistic missile attack at 2AM on a nearly daily basis. Israel is reportedly planning the next round of strikes. I’ve noted that these attacks are great practice for their eventual strike again against Iran, given the equivalent distances and refueling/logistics necessary.
Iran for its part, seems to be more focused on Syria than Israel. The threat of another Israeli strike still hangs over their heads though.
Hamas still getting picked apart to the bone in Gaza. The recent action at the Kamal Adwan Hospital shows they are still clinging to the hope that Israel will avoid such facilities over global condemnation. That hasn’t stopped Israel so far and each time they come back with the proof of illegal Hamas usage for war. Even the hospital director was a senior member of Hamas.
Hamas continues to walk back promises on the hostage issue. Any breakthrough before Trump returns to the WH are growing more unlikely.
Hezbollah is reportedly falling back on its illegal drug trade to raise funds to rebuild. Even before the war, they were major drug producers and exporters in the region, affiliated in some ways to the drug trade in Syria. This helps keep fighters on the payroll and ‘loyal’.
For the immediate time frame, I see a continuation of Israeli strikes against the Houthi. I don’t see any breakthrough in the hostage / ceasefire talks with Hamas. biden regime is losing leverage over Israel on concessions to hamas each day the Trump inauguration gets closer.
Syria -
Ahmed al-Sharaa, Commander-in-Chief of Syria’s new administration, announced during a televised interview that Kurdish forces are to be integrated into Syria’s Ministry of Defense and negotiations are ongoing
OBSERVATION - The details of this merger will be complicated with Turkey’s ongoing invasion of Kurdish regions.
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Holding elections in Syria could take up to four years, Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa said in an interview with Al Arabiya on Sunday, the first time he has commented on a possible timetable for elections since Bashar al-Assad was ousted this month.
Drafting a new constitution could take up to three years, Sharaa said in excerpts from the interview with the Saudi state-owned broadcaster. He also said it would take about a year for Syrians to see drastic changes.
Sharaa leads the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group that ousted Bashar al-Assad on Dec. 8, ending decades of Assad family rule and a 13-year civil war. He said HTS will be dissolved in a national dialog conference.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/syria/2024/12/29/id/1193204/
OBSERVATION - In reality, a period like this to move to a more democratic govt isn’t totally unprecedented, though I think the process is twice as long as they are projecting. What complicates the action is the ongoing sectarian revenge/counter revenge fighting and the Turkish aggression in the north. If the new govt is serious about welcoming the Kurds into the mix, they will have to step up and tell the Turks to stand down. Do they have the back bone to do so to their prime supporter?
***
The HTS-led interim government has thus far failed to prevent individual opposition fighters from targeting members of the Alawite community.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Fighting still reported on the Afghanistan/Pakistan border region.
Turkey –
Reports in Syria - The Turkish army has begun attacking dozens of Kurdish villages in the north of the country
My understanding is that the different factions in Syria are slaughtering each other.
It’s almost complete anarchy there.
I will start the new thread - Threat Matrix 2025 on the first, but it will be light on analysis that day.
Globalism / Great Reset –
A lot of nice words for Jimmy Carter on his death, but in many ways he opened the doors for today’s globalist movement. Changes to the US and world so strong it produced a Reagan response.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
New Years Eve celebrations - Dec 31/Jan 1
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A suspicious and small and anonymous Telegram account with less than 500 followers wrote in Arabic on Sunday, calling on ostensibly Muslims in the United States, Europe, and Russia to join “brothers in the land of Jihad.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/europe-russia-u-s/2024/12/29/id/1193272/
OBSERVATION - Small accounts can sometimes result in other links. Be alert out there this New Year’s Eve.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
2024 has not been good to Russia.
In spite of attempting to bolster its status in the global order via BRACS and treaties with China and N Korea, it has lost some strategic situations.
Earlier this year it essentially abandoned Armenia to Azerbaijan. Then the rug got pulled out from under them in Syria, losing their critical naval and airbases in the region, leaving them scrambling to find replacements.
Its war with Ukraine has been a bloodbath - See Misc below for more details. Russia failed to achieve any of its stated goals.
Economically, things are being held together with bubblegum and bailing wire. Inflation is rampant, its currency is weak and sanctions continue to take a bite out of their manufacturing efforts.
2025 looks to be even rougher with the Trump administration coming back and a continued quagmire in Ukraine.
***
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has dismissed a peace plan put forward by Donald Trump’s administration, which proposed postponing Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years and sending European Peacekeeping Forces to oversee a Demilitarized Zone.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia will end its moratorium on deploying Intermediate- and Shorter-Range Nuclear-Capable Missiles, citing U.S. deployment of similar weapons globally, according to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. This move dismantles the remnants of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a 1987 pact to reduce nuclear arsenals and eliminate missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 Kilometers (310 to 3,417 miles). Lavrov said there are no conditions for strategic dialogue with the U.S., raising fears of a renewed nuclear arms race with Russia, the U.S., and China. The INF Treaty ended in 2019 after U.S. accusations of Russian violations, which Moscow denied. Lavrov announced Russia’s self-moratorium is no longer viable due to U.S. actions.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 43 Shahed drones into Ukraine. A total of 21 were shot down and another 22 were supressed by electronic warfare
Russian losses per 30/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+2010 (!) men
+7 tanks
+22 AFVs
+44 artillery systems
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian attacks increased overnight.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia pressed attacks along the whole front in this sector yesterday.
Summary —
Big jump in Russia casualties over night, possibly associated with increased attacks in the Pokrovsk sector. Russia may be attempting to take advantaged of the improved weather to try to gain more ground. Available reports indicate that these attacks are not accomplishing much other than to increase their casualties.
Russia is sticking to its all or nothing stance on potential ceasefire talks with Trump/US.
Deep war is at a pause on both sides. Not sure the cause as weather suggests conditions are nominal for attacks, so there must be other reasons.
Europe / NATO General –
Finnish Authorities state that they have discovered dozen of kilometers of “Drag Marks” on the Baltic seabed, close to where the Cook Islands-Flagged Oil Tanker, M/T Eagle S, is believed to have used its anchor to sever the “Estlink 2” power cable as well as several telecommunication cables between Finland and Estonia on Wednesday. The ship remains in Finnish custody, as the crew is questioned for their involvement in the “sabotage” believed to have likely been ordered by Russian officials.
Following several Incidents recently of Russian and Chinese linked ships damaging submarine cables in the Baltic Sea; the Prime Minister of Latvia, Evika Siliņa has stated that they may soon begin seizing ships of the Russian “Shadow Fleet” in order to defend critical infrastructure.
OBSERVATION - This can almost be considered to be an act of war by Russia and are asymmetrical attacks on the northern flank of NATO were Russia probably fears that their Baltic Fleet could be prevented from deploying.
The “Shadow Fleet” are ships flagged under other nations but owned by Russian interests that have been used to circumvent economic sanctions.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu had prostate surgery overnight
——— GENERAL ——————————-
PM Netanyahu had prostate surgery overnight and is recovering in a secure bunker beneath an Israeli hospital Reports the surgery was successful.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israeli media quoting the army chief of staff: We do not see an end to the war in Gaza soon
***
The Israeli army confirmed five rockets were launched from the northern Gaza Strip at the southern Israeli town of Sderot. Two rockets were intercepted and the rest likely fell in open areas, the Israeli army said, amid an ongoing increase in rocket launches from Gaza in recent days
Following the latest rocket fire from the northern Gaza Strip, the Israeli army has issued an evacuation warning for civilians in a large area near Jabalia. “Terror organizations are again launching rockets from these areas which have been warned several times in the past”
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army carried out bombing and detonation operations between the towns of Taybeh and Rab Thalatheen in southern Lebanon.
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Indicators from Israeli new sources that the IDF will remain in S Lebanon past the current deadline.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli army troops operating in southern Syria reportedly advanced into the town of Madinat al-Baath in the Quneitra Governorate. Local Syrian media outlets say that Israeli forces entered several government buildings in the town to search them
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Some Hamas elements in N Gaza have been able to scrape together a few rockets to fire into Israel. The launching sites are within refugee ‘safe zones’, endangering civilians. The rockets are not surprising. Hamas had so many squirreled away that there are some that likely escaped Israeli detection or survived strikes. So now Israel is ordering the displacement of civilians while a strike on the areas is devised.
Houthi’s have quieted down for a while anyway. Israeli Mossad likely busy building databases of critical Houthi targets as all as where the leadership sleeps.
Pretty much quiet on the Hezbollah front, as IDF continues to reduce Hezbollah facilities in S Lebanon.
Syria, action is focused internally and not on Israel.
Iran –
Quiet, very quiet.
Protests have been happening in Tehran over the economy and rampant inflation.
Syria -
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) says Turkey is establishing two new military bases in Manbij and west of the Euphrates River in northern Syria. The Kurdish-led force also claims to have targeted several Turkish positions in the vicinity - Statement by SDF
***
Revenge on Assad supporters continues as the new Rebel govt meets with foreign dignitaries to establish/reestablish ties.
Turkey –
See actions in Syria above
Misc of Note –
I’ve made other reviews in preceding posts on other areas of the Matrix
2024
In review for Ukraine/Russia.
Another bloody, slugfest of a year highlighted by the surprise invasion of Kursk, western OK for use of weapons to strike deeper into Russia and Russia’s use of a developmental intermediate range MIRV on Ukraine.
The Russia offensive did manage to gain ground over the past year but at an extreme cost in men and material. Estimates of personnel losses are around 400K - doubling the total losses for the operation. Ukraine’s losses have been hard to peg, but since the start of the war some estimates have their casualties at around 300K - about 1/3 Russian casualties.
The election of Trump has already forced both sides to the realization that the US is not going to put up with further fighting. How this plays out is yet to be seen.