Replies

I will start the new thread - Threat Matrix 2025 on the first, but it will be light on analysis that day.

Globalism / Great Reset –

A lot of nice words for Jimmy Carter on his death, but in many ways he opened the doors for today’s globalist movement. Changes to the US and world so strong it produced a Reagan response.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
New Years Eve celebrations - Dec 31/Jan 1
***

A suspicious and small and anonymous Telegram account with less than 500 followers wrote in Arabic on Sunday, calling on ostensibly Muslims in the United States, Europe, and Russia to join “brothers in the land of Jihad.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/europe-russia-u-s/2024/12/29/id/1193272/

OBSERVATION - Small accounts can sometimes result in other links. Be alert out there this New Year’s Eve.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
2024 has not been good to Russia.
In spite of attempting to bolster its status in the global order via BRACS and treaties with China and N Korea, it has lost some strategic situations.

Earlier this year it essentially abandoned Armenia to Azerbaijan. Then the rug got pulled out from under them in Syria, losing their critical naval and airbases in the region, leaving them scrambling to find replacements.

Its war with Ukraine has been a bloodbath - See Misc below for more details. Russia failed to achieve any of its stated goals.

Economically, things are being held together with bubblegum and bailing wire. Inflation is rampant, its currency is weak and sanctions continue to take a bite out of their manufacturing efforts.

2025 looks to be even rougher with the Trump administration coming back and a continued quagmire in Ukraine.

***
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has dismissed a peace plan put forward by Donald Trump’s administration, which proposed postponing Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years and sending European Peacekeeping Forces to oversee a Demilitarized Zone.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russia will end its moratorium on deploying Intermediate- and Shorter-Range Nuclear-Capable Missiles, citing U.S. deployment of similar weapons globally, according to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. This move dismantles the remnants of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a 1987 pact to reduce nuclear arsenals and eliminate missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 Kilometers (310 to 3,417 miles). Lavrov said there are no conditions for strategic dialogue with the U.S., raising fears of a renewed nuclear arms race with Russia, the U.S., and China. The INF Treaty ended in 2019 after U.S. accusations of Russian violations, which Moscow denied. Lavrov announced Russia’s self-moratorium is no longer viable due to U.S. actions.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 43 Shahed drones into Ukraine. A total of 21 were shot down and another 22 were supressed by electronic warfare

Russian losses per 30/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+2010 (!) men
+7 tanks
+22 AFVs
+44 artillery systems

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian attacks increased overnight.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia pressed attacks along the whole front in this sector yesterday.

Summary —
Big jump in Russia casualties over night, possibly associated with increased attacks in the Pokrovsk sector. Russia may be attempting to take advantaged of the improved weather to try to gain more ground. Available reports indicate that these attacks are not accomplishing much other than to increase their casualties.

Russia is sticking to its all or nothing stance on potential ceasefire talks with Trump/US.

Deep war is at a pause on both sides. Not sure the cause as weather suggests conditions are nominal for attacks, so there must be other reasons.

Europe / NATO General –

Finnish Authorities state that they have discovered dozen of kilometers of “Drag Marks” on the Baltic seabed, close to where the Cook Islands-Flagged Oil Tanker, M/T Eagle S, is believed to have used its anchor to sever the “Estlink 2” power cable as well as several telecommunication cables between Finland and Estonia on Wednesday. The ship remains in Finnish custody, as the crew is questioned for their involvement in the “sabotage” believed to have likely been ordered by Russian officials.

Following several Incidents recently of Russian and Chinese linked ships damaging submarine cables in the Baltic Sea; the Prime Minister of Latvia, Evika Siliņa has stated that they may soon begin seizing ships of the Russian “Shadow Fleet” in order to defend critical infrastructure.

OBSERVATION - This can almost be considered to be an act of war by Russia and are asymmetrical attacks on the northern flank of NATO were Russia probably fears that their Baltic Fleet could be prevented from deploying.

The “Shadow Fleet” are ships flagged under other nations but owned by Russian interests that have been used to circumvent economic sanctions.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu had prostate surgery overnight

——— GENERAL ——————————-

PM Netanyahu had prostate surgery overnight and is recovering in a secure bunker beneath an Israeli hospital Reports the surgery was successful.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israeli media quoting the army chief of staff: We do not see an end to the war in Gaza soon

***
The Israeli army confirmed five rockets were launched from the northern Gaza Strip at the southern Israeli town of Sderot. Two rockets were intercepted and the rest likely fell in open areas, the Israeli army said, amid an ongoing increase in rocket launches from Gaza in recent days

Following the latest rocket fire from the northern Gaza Strip, the Israeli army has issued an evacuation warning for civilians in a large area near Jabalia. “Terror organizations are again launching rockets from these areas which have been warned several times in the past”

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army carried out bombing and detonation operations between the towns of Taybeh and Rab Thalatheen in southern Lebanon.

***
Indicators from Israeli new sources that the IDF will remain in S Lebanon past the current deadline.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli army troops operating in southern Syria reportedly advanced into the town of Madinat al-Baath in the Quneitra Governorate. Local Syrian media outlets say that Israeli forces entered several government buildings in the town to search them

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Some Hamas elements in N Gaza have been able to scrape together a few rockets to fire into Israel. The launching sites are within refugee ‘safe zones’, endangering civilians. The rockets are not surprising. Hamas had so many squirreled away that there are some that likely escaped Israeli detection or survived strikes. So now Israel is ordering the displacement of civilians while a strike on the areas is devised.

Houthi’s have quieted down for a while anyway. Israeli Mossad likely busy building databases of critical Houthi targets as all as where the leadership sleeps.

Pretty much quiet on the Hezbollah front, as IDF continues to reduce Hezbollah facilities in S Lebanon.

Syria, action is focused internally and not on Israel.

Iran –

Quiet, very quiet.

Protests have been happening in Tehran over the economy and rampant inflation.

Syria -

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) says Turkey is establishing two new military bases in Manbij and west of the Euphrates River in northern Syria. The Kurdish-led force also claims to have targeted several Turkish positions in the vicinity - Statement by SDF

***
Revenge on Assad supporters continues as the new Rebel govt meets with foreign dignitaries to establish/reestablish ties.

Turkey –

See actions in Syria above

Misc of Note –

I’ve made other reviews in preceding posts on other areas of the Matrix
2024

In review for Ukraine/Russia.

Another bloody, slugfest of a year highlighted by the surprise invasion of Kursk, western OK for use of weapons to strike deeper into Russia and Russia’s use of a developmental intermediate range MIRV on Ukraine.

The Russia offensive did manage to gain ground over the past year but at an extreme cost in men and material. Estimates of personnel losses are around 400K - doubling the total losses for the operation. Ukraine’s losses have been hard to peg, but since the start of the war some estimates have their casualties at around 300K - about 1/3 Russian casualties.

The election of Trump has already forced both sides to the realization that the US is not going to put up with further fighting. How this plays out is yet to be seen.

Last day of 2024 - and man what a ride. 2025 looks to be equally turbulent.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

2024 saw numerous studies prove what was formerly conspiracy theory material regarding the lethal side effects of the nRNA jabs. Further, hidden reports from Pfizer and Moderna and the CDC show these side effects were known to the parties. This is the beginning of the stripping of the immunity granted by the govt under emergency conditions. Willful deception as to the safety and effectiveness of the jab.

2025 sees an attempt to find a replace plandemic for wuhan. Current front runner is the bird flu, but that isn’t gaining traction.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Last but not least, 2024 was, to say the least, dynamic. It saw Trump shake off a plethora of lawfare suits by corrupt soros-DAs and corrupt judges to force him out. By the end of the year, these suits were collapsing on the weight of the evidence and corruption of the lawyers.

He survived one active assassination attempt with two others stopped before they could attempt to fire on Trump. Leftist cheered the attempts and called for more.

It also saw the veil of MSM protective coverage pulled away from biden and in a disastrous debate with Trump, showed his total mental decline, eventually seeing him forced to step down from reelection and the very shifty switch to harris, without a single primary but a backroom democrat fiat. She outspent Trump by a factor of three, yet fell by a landslide not seen in decades.

Over the course of the last couple weeks, it has come out that biden was shielded from the world almost from day 1. His dementia so strong that meetings were either not held or called off at the last minute. Over 40 percent of his time as president were spent on ‘vacation’. The govt was essentially run by his wife and advisors.

2025 brings no relief as democrats retool and implement their efforts to derail the Trump agenda at any cost. Liberal governors and mayors are facing potential arrest should they interfere with the stated goal of mass deportations of illegals. The economy, emaciated after 4 years of biden, is shaky and a restart as potentially explosive as remixing matter / anti-matter.

Yes, 2025 could well be even more explosive than 2024.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Gladly, I’ll be able to delete this category in less than a month.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024

In a letter to U.S. Lawmakers, the U.S. Treasury department has revealed that they discovered a Chinese Cyber Operation on December 8, that accessed Treasury workstations using a stolen key from the third party software provider BeyondTrust. Characterized as a “Major Cybersecurity Incident,” the U.S. Treasury has said that no Classified Material was accessed and they believed that the cyber-actors no longer had access to their systems.

China –

Things are not happy in China. China has built or expanded more than 200 specialized detention facilities nationwide to interrogate suspects ensnared in Xi Jinping’s widening anti-corruption drive, a CNN investigation has found.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight Russia launched 6 Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles, 8 Kh-22 cruise missiles, 1 Kh-47M2 aero ballistic missile, 6 Kh-69 guided aviation missiles. 1 Kh-47M2 and 5 Kh-69 missiles were shot down. Also 16 Saheed UAVs were shot down

Explosion was reported in Odesa from a Kh-31P missile strike.

Russian losses on the last day of 2024 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1610 men
+5 tanks
+27 AFVs
+34 artillery systems

Overnight, Ukrainian attack drones successfully struck a large Russian fuel storage depot in Smolensk Oblast. The facility is violently burning, as Russian forces struggle to get the fire under control.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 17 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
NOTE - this is down from over 50 from a couple weeks ago.

Crimean front —
Ukrainian Military Intelligence: for the first time Magura V5 naval drone shot down Russian Mi-8 helicopter with R-73 SeaDragon missiles near occupied Crimea. Another helicopter was damaged

Multiple explosions were reported in Sevastopol from seaborne drone attacks.

Summary —
Both Russia and Ukraine gained terrain over the past few days. Russia continues to suffer high personnel losses to finish the year. Estimate of Russian casualties is close to 800K now as the year ends. Half of those casualties in 2004 alone.

biden is throwing multiple billions in aid/equipment to Ukraine as his term ends, anticipating that Trump will be shutting the valve shortly upon returning to the WH.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas suffers major losses in N Gaza / Jabaliya

- Hamas sabotaging cease fire talks by changing hostage release standards.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Hamas is changing the ceasefire agreement and refusing to release 12 out of the 34 hostages Israel wants freed.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

A large group of Hamas terrorists tried to sneak out of Jabaliya last night under the cover of darkness, dense fog and heavy rain.
However, the Israeli Army had prepared an ambush for them, killing nearly 100 terrorists in the ensuing battle, one of the largest ones in weeks.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Deputy Head of Hezbullah’s Political Council, Hajj Mahmoud Qamati:

“We committed to patience for 60 days, and on the 61st day, another day, and the situation will change, and the existing forces will become occupation forces, and we will deal with them on this basis”

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Israeli army confirms a ballistic missile launched from Yemen was intercepted before crossing into Israeli territory. The launch followed airstrikes by the U.S.-led coalition on Houthi targets in Hodeidah

Report from Yemen: The US military carried out two airstrikes in the Hodeidah governorate.

***
Houthi. According to some sources, weapon (missiles, drones, etc) have been transferred to residential buildings in the Sana’a area. Among other things, the weapons were transferred to the Bani al-Harith neighborhood, al-Sa’ain, and the Noqum area.

***
As I’m typing, US bombers are hitting a number of sites in Sana’a, targeting the Defense Ministry, a weapons maintenance camp, and the Al-Ardi Security Complex, according to Saudi Al-Hadath.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

French Foreign Ministry: We condemn the Israeli military operations targeting hospitals in Gaza, most notably the Kamal Adwan Hospital

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas in N Gaza has suffered nearly 1000 losses to either capture, or killed/wounded. Operating out of the Kamal Adwan Hospital, it attempted to shield its operations. As with other instances of hospital use, there were some complaints, but as with the prior, the fact that the hospital staff not only aided Hamas, but many of its staff were senior leaders in it has dampened the complaints.

Hamas is going hardline on the hostages again. It remains to be seen what Trump may have to influence their release.

Hezbollah threatening to return to fighting after the 60 day cease fire window. Not a surprise, as they’ve been using the time to regroup and re-arm where possible. This put this into the Trump administration who will likely strongly support Israel’s efforts to eradicate any Hezbollah resurgence. This is also probably why Israel has not really pulled out of S Lebanon, as the Lebanese army has failed to disarm and remove Hezbollah elements south of the Litani River. Israel doesn’t what to have to refight for terrain already under their control. But any resumption of fighting may only be short lived for Hezbollah, facing virtually no support from Iran.

Clock is ticking on the next Israeli strike on the Houthi’s. As noted above, the Houthi’s have reportedly placed their stockpiles of rockets and drones deep into civilian area, thinking that may protect them from destruction. That tactic may work for the US/coalition forces, but as Israel has demonstrated in Gaza and Lebanon, they will strike them no matter where they are placed.

As 2024 fades and 2025 comes charging in, the dynamic change in the balance of power is expected to continue with the eventual face off between Israel and Iran. Based on Trump’s statement that he will not permit the development of an Iranian nuke, the US may strike Iran as well.

Iran is weak - from the last Israeli strike to the humiliation of the of the losses in Lebanon/Syria of Hezbollah and its dominance in the region. This makes it more likely that Israel will go after their nuke program. But as Ive said before, it is a wounded animal and may strike out at gulf states to put the global oil situation into a tailspin. Such an action would virtually guarantee US intervention under Trump.

Iran has to look internally to maintain the power of the mullahs. Failure to invest in upgrading the power grid and supply, and secure other economic basics is creating a great deal of unrest among the masses and that unrest may exceed the power of the IRGC to keep under foot.

With everything happening, Iran is a area to keep close eyes on.

Iran –

Iran appears to be seeking to foment sectarian conflict in Syria, which it could then exploit to establish proxy and partner militias there.

Iraq -

Iraqi Foreign Minister to his Syrian counterpart: Iraq is keen to return all members of its diplomatic mission to Damascus to continue their work.

***
In the past week, it has been reported that Iranian-backed militias in Iraq were nearing an Agreement with Iraqi Decision-Makers surrounding a cessation of attacks on Israel. Iraqi Officials have now confirmed that such an agreement is now in place.

However, it should be noted that this agreement doesn’t indicate a break from Iran by these militias. In the past week, the leader of the principal Iranian-backed militia in Iraq, the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) reaffirmed their loyalty for Iran to Iranian state-media.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1873816879804162237?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Egypt –

A violent explosion rocks the Police Academy east of Cairo, with reports of deaths and injuries.

OBSERVATION - I’ve not seen more details, but on the surface this could represent terror actions by islamic sects seeking to overthrow the govt much like what happened in Syria.

Syria -

Syria: the French Air Force carried out yesterday 2 airstrikes against ISIS targets in the desert. Precise location undisclosed.

***
Fighting between SDF and Turkish backed forces continues in the northern regions of Syria.

Turkey –

Erdogan: Türkiye will take decisive steps in the coming period to achieve a “terror-free zone” (in Syria)

Misc of Note –

———— 2025 — — —
The push to get Trump elected is over and we have breathed a collective sigh of relief. 2025 the challenges will come from different sectors in different forms and we have to be vigilant in spotting them early on.
Some early areas of concern -

- Economy, sabotaged by biden and the fed
- Political sabotage by democrats and RINOs in congress

- Ever present threat of assassination still being pushed by the radical left.

- Global hotspots: Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel/Iran

- Mass deportation of illegals.

These are the top of my list, but there are many other dangerous areas to navigate thru as well such as globalism, plandemics, domestic violence/riots, etc. In many ways 2025 has the great potential to be far rougher than 2024.