Threat Matrix 2024

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.

Moving into a fresh week. Some areas seem quiet, others suggest a storm is about to break out.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

BLM riots against the Penney verdict have fizzled out. There are still some rallies scheduled in NYC but they are not gaining any traction.

Scattered pro-hamas / pro-islam disruptions of Christmas celebrations.

***
The folks at Forward Observer are reporting that a recent revolutionary anarchist blog post argued that protests and direct action demonstrations against fascists and corporations no longer work, and that anarchist should return to assassinating their enemies.

The post argues that continued assassinations of political enemies would send a message to the capitalist class that prominent members are not “untouchable.” The post described the current situation as a “precipice,” as anarchist readers are asked to consider their willingness to commit acts of armed violence if those acts lead to desired change.

OBSERVATION - Cross reference to Terrorism as well. Political assassinations are old school for these radical leftists. The recent murder of the Healthcare CEO may be driving some of the thought combined with the apparent ineffectiveness of trying to put together mass rallies/riots.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
***

See Misc of Note below on potential terror attack surrounding drone flap.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024

It’s not shaping up to be a very merry holiday season for some major retailers this year.

U.S. retailers have announced more than 7,100 store closures through the end of November 2024, a 69% jump from the same time last year, according to recent data from research firm CoreSight. That comes as 45 retailers have filed for bankruptcy protection so far this year, compared with 25 retail bankruptcies for all of 2023, the report found.

The surge in store closures comes at a time when consumer spending appears strong, helping to lift the nation’s economic growth. Yet cracks are emerging, with some retailers reporting that inflation-weary shoppers are cutting back or becoming more choosy in searching for sales and deals.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/retailers-closing-stores-surged-2024-family-dollar-cvs-big-lots/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=688449480

OBSERVATION - The article repeats a common theme - “consumer spending appears strong” - a claim used over the past year to justify claims that bidenomics was ‘working’. Reality is documented in the closures and bankruptcies, showing that spending isn’t ‘strong’. Also repeated is the claim of ‘lifting the nation’s economic growth’. Even the govt figures don’t show that. GDP continues to be anemic and some insist that any ‘growth’ has been due to govt spending, not general consumers.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. faces a severe shortage of ammunition and critical minerals like antimony, essential for modern warfare, exposing vulnerabilities in its defense industrial base.
The U.S. lacks domestic antimony production, relying entirely on foreign suppliers, with China controlling most of the global supply. This dependency has led to supply cuts and price surges, endangering military readiness.
U.S. support for Ukraine has depleted its own ammunition stocks, with current production (30,000 shells/month) falling far short of the 100,000 shells needed by 2025.
Companies like Military Metals Corp. are acquiring antimony projects to address shortages, but the Biden administration’s efforts to secure domestic sources of critical minerals have been slow and insufficient.
The U.S. must invest in domestic mining, streamline regulations, and foster partnerships to secure critical minerals and ensure future military readiness, avoiding over-reliance on adversarial nations.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-12-15-ammo-crisis-national-security-wake-up-call.html

OBSERVATION - Some consider this to be a deliberate weakening of the US military by the left / biden so that the US cannot respond to any military aggressiveness by China, Russia or Iran. Short falls in munitions production not only affects artillery, but rockets/missiles, other bombs, fighter jets, naval vessels, etc.

POLITICAL FRONT –

(FO) The House could release a continuing resolution (CR) today that will extend government funding until March 2025, ahead of the 20 December deadline to prevent a government shutdown. Negotiations over agriculture funding over the weekend held up the planned release of the bill.

Interesting potential developments in the hunter pardon. Serious questions over whether the pardons are restricted to existing charges and convictions and not to those that are not. Thus the plethora of crimes hunter are believed to have committed are still on the table.

OBSERVATION - All indicators apart from from blustering and chest beating on both sides, the CR will pass.

China –

China’s recent exercises in the seas around Taiwan have reportedly caught Taiwan off guard as to their size and speed of development.

North/South Korea –

NK forces supporting Russia’s attacks in the Ukraine are not faring well. See Ukraine below.

Russia -

NUCLEAR THREATS –

(FO) Russian President Vladimir Putin warned this morning that U.S. plans to deploy missiles to Europe have pushed him to his “red lines,” adding that he may lift restrictions on Russian ballistic missile deployment in response.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reported on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 49 launched, 27 were shot down by regular air defense and 19 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Three more UAVs were still active in Ukrainian airspace.

Russian losses per 16/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1070 men
+12 tanks
+29 AFVs
+23 artillery systems

Reports that Ukraine drones destroyed a big Russian ammo depot in occupied Donetsk, Suspilne reports. The site housed thousands of rounds for BMPs, tanks, anti-tank missiles, mines, grenades, and millions of bullets. Explosions and fire raged all night. A nearby fuel depot was also obliterated.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1868567942314545546?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Special Operation Forces of Armed forces of Ukraine dismissed reports of breakthrough at the state border in Sumy region on 10th December as Russian propaganda and published a video showing repelling an attack in the area.
NOTE - This was a battalion sized assault. Reportedly the Russian commander in the region was replace and this is the first attack showing any kind of ability to organize an attack at a higher level. From the Ukraine videos, the Russian column was stuck on a road and was easily struck.

***
Rumint. Confused North Korean troops opened friendly fire on Kadyrov’s Chechen troops, killing 8 in the Kursk region.

North Korean army units are being replenished after losses in Russia’s Kursk region. On Dec 14–15, near Plekhovo, Vorozhba, and Martinovka, DPRK units suffered heavy losses—at least 30 soldiers killed or wounded. Near Kurilovka, at least three North Korean troops went missing.

Assault groups are now being reinforced with fresh personnel, including from the DPRK’s 94th Special Forces Brigade, to continue offensive operations.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1868568758974910793?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russians close to closing off Ukraine salient near Kurakhivka.

Summary —

Russian drone attacks have dropped down to their near normal levels. Russian casualties are down to summer 24 levels for the third day in a row, and size of attacks are down, though still plentiful.

The saga of the NK forces in the Kursk region are coming out and they are as bad as many have anticipated. In addition to friendly fire losses, observers are noting that they are poorly armed - mostly korean war vintage weapons. They are also trying to duplicate the human wave attacks that China made famous in the Korean war - except they do not have the numbers. The poor performance so far will likely hinder future deployments from NK, even though Russia is in desperate need of forces to advance the offensive as far as possible before any cease fire.

Even with the lowered tempo of Russian attack, Ukraine is still being forced back in some sectors.

Keeping an eye on the sector near Sumy. The attempted Russian assault was at battalion level strength. First time in a while such a sizable force has been mustered to the front. However, the poor training of the tankers and APCs showed that they are still unable to maneuver to exploit any firepower advantage and they continue the almost self destructing method of charging down a road in a column where they can be picked off and destroyed.

Europe / NATO General –

EU Foreign ministers just greenlighted 3 sanctions packages: - the 15th sanctions package on Russia for undermining territorial integrity of Ukraine, including sanctions on China and North Korea. More listings of Belarusian individuals and entities. 1st ever listings for Russian hybrid activities, including Tina Kandelaki and Bordachev of Valdai club

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- More airstrikes in Syria.

- Rumors that a hostage deal may be soon

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel OKs annexation of portions of the Golan Heights it has occupied since the Yon Kippur war.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

A Gaza hostage-ceasefire is closer than it has ever been before, a senior Hamas official told the Saudi news outlet Asharq on Monday.
“We are closer than ever to reaching a prisoner exchange deal and a ceasefire, provided that Netanyahu does not obstruct the agreement,” the official reportedly said. (JPost)

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said in a the terror group lost its supply route in Syria with the fall of the Assad regime. During the Assad regime, weapons and other military supplies were brought through Syria into Lebanon, but when Syrian rebels seized the route, the supply chain was cut off. “We also hope that the new ruling party will view Israel as an enemy and refrain from normalizing relations with it. These are the key factors that will shape the nature of the relationship between us and Syria.”

***
Druze-Lebanese politician Wiam Wahhab, an ally of Hezbollah, made a surprising statement last night: “The nation doesn’t want war. If you ask me, let’s move toward peace with Israel. I urge the Shiites to normalize relations and make peace with Israel so we can all live in peace. The resistance axis ended with the assassinations of Soleimani and Nasrallah.”

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

See Syria below on IAF airstrikes

***
IDF ground forces pushed further north in the Hermon Mtn Range area towards Damascus and expanded forces in the former 1974 buffer zone.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

The Palestinian Authority is conducting operations in Jenin targeting rival factions like Hamas related elements. This is creating a lot of discontent by some of the locals who see Hamas as a better leader than the PA.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Reports of U.S-Coalition airstrikes within the last hour, on Houthi targets in the Hajjah Governorate of Northwestern Yemen.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: We warn Israel against annexing the Golan Heights, this is unacceptable

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

IMHO, Syrian rebels keep finding weapons/munition stockpiles that Israel seems to have missed, allowing them to target for destruction. Such is what happened overnight. Video’s of the Tartus strike are stunning in the massive size of secondary explosions.

Uncertain just how much more the IDF will be expanding in Syrian terrain, particularly in the Hermon Range close to Damascus. Sr IDF commanders having a lot of conferences with the local chiefs of towns in the occupied buffer zone to assure them of their safety from Israeli actions - as long as they don’t attack the IDF.

More and more, end game is approaching for both Hamas and Hezbollah. The harsh reality is that if they continue to resist, they will totally be eliminated. Conditions for Hezbollah in Lebanon may be becoming more hostile as local leaders turn on them politically. As Ive said time and again, the arab/moslem world gauges their support based on strength or the perception thereof. Hezbollah is now viewed as weak, and even their leadership admits that help from Iran is not coming any time soon. They are at the point where they could be pushed out of essential control of Lebanon.

Iran is even more seen as being weak following the rebel victory in Syria. This could make them especially dangerous in regards to pushing the development of a nuclear weapon. Threats of Israel and the US coming for their facilities is large on their radar and they may view the nuke as their last line of defense against the west. They may do something irrational with a weapon in order to regain the perception of strength and attempt to deter further perceived aggression against it. See Miscellaneous of Note below on those thoughts.

Iran –

Iranian leadership continues to talk nice to the new rulers of Syria.

Syria -

Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani says new Syrian regime will operate under Sharia Law, morality police will be supervised by clerics and mullahs.

OBSERVATION - Any surprise here? The AQ/ISIS fundamentalist islam underpinnings coming to the forefront.

***
An absolutely monstrous explosion hit Northwestern Syria near Tartus from an Israeli airstrike on a munitions depot. This explosion was so large that it registered as 3.0 earthquake on seismic sensors in the area.

The target of the Israeli strike near Tartus was reported to have been the base of the 23rd Air Defense Brigade as well as surface-to-surface missile warehouses, which is likely what caused several of the large explosions.

Local sources in rural Tartous report sgnificant material damage reported in the villages of Bmalkeh, Al-Bakriyeh, Marseheen, Al-Joubeh, Badriyeh, Al-Wasitat, Beit Al-Khatib, and Hababeh in the countryside of Tartous provinc.

NASA FIRMS indicates significant thermal anomalies detected following Israeli army strikes at a munitions storage site, formerly belonging to the Assad regime

Two large explosions were heard in the city of Deir Ezzor, resulting from an Israeli air raid on the Deir Ezzor military airport.

Additional IAF targets overnight consisted of 12 radar sites, and an air defense system

***
US State Department: US citizens must leave Syria

***
U.S. soldiers arrived in Kobane in northern Syria to take possession of the military bases abandoned by the Russian Army a few days ago.

Misc of Note –

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT - There is enough ‘smoke’ associated with the current drone craziness that there maybe fire of some sort buried therein. Otherwise, what are we being distracted from.

Over the weekend, the noise level for the latest conspiracy concerning the drone epidemic was boiled down to this - drones being sighted around the United States in recent weeks may be searching for a nuclear weapon that has been smuggled into the country.

This is not the first time conspiracy alerts have been raised over concerns of a smuggled nuke. This was big topic back when TM was started after 9/11. This time, some bogus and some legitimate reasons are in play. First the bogus -

Some of the conspiracists are trying to claim that a hostile foreign nation or terror group has gotten their hands on one of the ‘70s suitcase nukes or one of the Ukrainian nukes ‘lost’ when they removed them following the breakup of the Soviet Union. FRs Matt Bracken put the kibosh to a key aspect of this by pointing out that these nukes require a high amount of maintenance as components get damaged from the high radiation over time. A second factor is that the nuclear material (plutonium or uranium) looses its effective purity and soon no longer is effective in initiating a fission reaction when activated.

But that doesn’t rule these old nukes out. The second theory in play is that there are so called ‘dirty’ bombs set to go off out there. The concept is designed to panic the uniformed populace. A dirty bomb is nothing more than a conventional bomb with radioactive material included. Upon the explosion of the bomb, radioactive material is scattered over a limited area, causing it to be closed off until decon’d. Any deaths would be associated with the initial explosion. The radioactivity would be useful in denying access to critical areas or rescue of individuals (think of the Waco truck bomb with radioactive scattered over several square blocks).

This next brings us to the worst case scenario - a real live nuke. The world has a few demonstrated nuclear nations and a number of wannabes. The highest threat on this strategic scale are Russia and China. The next question is which is more willing to devise an asymmetrical nuclear attack like this? Hands down I think the culprit would be China - it has the most to gain. But such an attack would normally trigger nuclear war, if traced back to them, so China would have to be ready to be moving into actions against Taiwan and other western Pacific territories at the same time this nuke is ignited. Don’t see that coming together yet.

The second biggest global concern would be the acquisition of such a device by Iran. They have been beating the drum about getting one for nearly a decade now and technologically has the capability. The severe losses to Israel and their open weakness to having their families struck combined with rumblings of a US strike under Trump may have trigger an all out effort to get the bomb. “Experts” have said Iran has the potential to be nuclear in a little as weeks. What other factors could be present to accelerate the program
1 Iran has for years had representatives in N Korea working with their scientists on the NK bomb
2 Recent agreements with Russia to supply war materials in its fight against Ukraine could include gaining technology for their bomb as well as out right technical help.

Iran needs to have two things happen and there is no evidence that they’ve been successful. First the construction and testing of a triggering device and second actual successful detonation. Modern computers could bridge the gap with sufficient data from a trigger device test - or application of say a Russian or N Korean trigger. This would leave just the actual test which Iran could risk it and use an attack on the US as its “test”.

What about the scenario? The volume of containerized shipping could facilitate the smuggling of a device plausible. Even some well placed money in inspectors hands could further the efforts. The it is just a matter of moving the container to the desired location and linking up with technicians for final adjustments and setting the timer. We have plenty of potential Iranian agents here due to the open border of the past 4 years.

A New York / New Jersey target would be greatly symbolic just like the Twin Towers were on 9/11. A population concentration that would result in high casualties and prolonged issues due to fallout. Proximity to shipping ports also a point from above.

If the heart and core of the current drone flap is a search for a nuclear device of some sort, those efforts are now very buried by the tsunami of copycat drones, bogus / fake reports and the like. Until one of these drones are brought down and analyzed, this is much speculation.

One last item under this theory, it could account for clearly standard aircraft flying unusual patterns and locations. Drones are still relatively new and much that has been known about the nation’s nuclear detection efforts have been based on standard, manned airframes.

Tons of speculation, not enough to connect any dots but something to think about.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Chrystia Freeland, WEF insider and Trudeau’s right hand, has resigned from his cabinet, sparking political chaos in Ottawa. Once united in pushing globalist agendas, Freeland’s dramatic departure exposes deep cracks in Trudeau’s government.

She’s walking away after clashing with Trudeau over economic strategy—just hours before delivering a major fiscal update! Could this signal the beginning of Trudeau’s downfall?

The stakes couldn’t be higher.
Freeland’s resignation is more than just a political shakeup—it’s a seismic shift in Canada’s leadership, with global implications.

https://x.com/jimfergusonuk/status/1868679655806341364?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Canada has been one of the test beds for implementation of WEF goals. Over the course of his efforts, Trudeau has destroyed his popularity ratings with the exception of the radical left. Some of this latest fallout may be due to Trump’s threat of tariffs against Canada.

Freeland was also a key player in the truckers strike against Canada a few years ago, cackling over how she could (and did) freeze their bank accounts.
Now there is a lot of rumors that Trudeau may resign. His ratings are in the dump and the parliamentary chaos may be enough to send him over the edge.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1

***
The Air Marshal National Council represents the federal law enforcement officers whose job it is to protect planes from terrorist attacks and other criminal activity in our nation’s airways.

They are warning that a terrorist attack may be imminent, and the TSA is not doing enough to help them thwart it.

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/12/16/air-marshals-worry-about-al-qaeda-terrorist-attack-in-2025-n3797950

OBSERVATION - Disturbing but not surprising. We’ve all seen the reports that illegals pass thru TSA without a hitch, even using criminal summons as identification. Literally thousands of jihadis can enter our planes without vetting, leaving them wide open for a terrorist incident.

***
A 15 (17?) -year-old student opened fire inside a study hall at a small Christian school in Wisconsin, killing a teacher and teenager and prompting a swarm of police officers responding to a second grader’s 911 call.
The girl also wounded six others in Monday’s shooting at Abundant Life Christian School, including two students who were in critical condition, Madison Police Chief Shon Barnes said. A teacher and three students were taken to a hospital with less serious injuries, and two of them were later released.

In a follow-up briefing later on Monday, Chief Barnes replaced the words “male or female” with “gender.”
And, instead of reiterating that he didn’t “know” whether the suspect was male or female, he said that his office was “not releasing” any details about the suspect’s sexual status.

Subsequently, the Associated Press reported that the suspect “was a 17-year-old female student,“ according to an unnamed law enforcement officer - which does nothing to clarify whether the suspect was a biological male or female, given the AP’s embrace of transgender ideology and terminology.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/madison-police-chief-doesnt-know-if-school-shooter-male-or-female

OBSERVATION - Much discussion over whether the ‘girl’ was actually a girl or a transexual male. If the latter, then the last half dozen school / mass casualty episodes have been by individuals in the transgender community. In this case, another Christian based school was singled out as well.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024

Serious rumblings that the govt is about to issue updated jobs data for 2Q 2024 - and its going to be ugly. Some are forecasting that the jobs reportedly “created” in the second quarter, were actually fake, there were no net jobs created at all, and in fact, the US may have lost jobs in Q2. This is based on initial evaluation of data released Friday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Final word on jobs revisions expected out soon.

Philly Fed report -
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/early-benchmark-revisions

OBSERVATION - A significant downward revision as some are indicating follows right along with the overestimation by nearly 1 million for 2023. Fundamentally, the Fed lied to us in an effort to keep up the facade of a good biden economy going into the elections.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

On December 15, the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) made a southbound transit through the Suez Canal and into CENTCOM’s control.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Merchan refuses to dismiss charges due to presidential immunity.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Rumors from a NRC insider indicates that biden has slipped quickly to vegetable mode and may not last another year.

Illegal Immigration –

A police chief in a small North Dakota city says he and his officers were abandoned by the feds and left to fend for themselves when suspected Tren de Aragua members showed up in town.

North Dakota is the latest state to report that the brutal Venezuelan migrant gang is operating there after alleged member Henry Theis, 25, was busted last month for hacking and ripping off ATMs in West Fargo to the tune of $100,000, according to authorities.

And he’s not the only suspected TdA member to now have been identified in the city of 40,000.

https://nypost.com/2024/12/15/us-news/cops-in-north-dakota-beg-for-feds-help-over-tren-de-aragua/

RELATED - Tren de Aragua now operating in Utah.

https://nypost.com/2024/12/16/us-news/tren-de-aragua-is-now-terrorizing-utah-as-venezuelan-dissident-warns-that-local-authorities-are-not-ready/

OBSERVATION - The count is now up to 19 states penetrated by TdA - and growing in rural areas! In bigger cities they thrive because they can burrow into the background. In rural states they are finding that police/sheriffs lack resources and man power to effectively confront the challenge and that smaller elements of TdA can operate effectively.

North/South Korea –

US Treasury Department website announces new sanctions package related to North Korea and Russia

***
Footage from Russian channels indicates over 100 wounded North Korean soldiers are being treated at the Emergency Clinical Hospital on Pirogov Street in Kursk. A separate floor and special meals have been allocated for them.

Russia -

*****
Russia’s Permanent UN Representative Vasily Nebenzya said that Russia does not accept any scenarios for freezing the war, and Moscow considers Zelensky’s peace initiatives an attempt to buy time to intensify the fight against Russia. He added that Russia is ready to speak with those who ‘accept reality’.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Serial production of “Oreshnik” must be established in the near future, “and this will certainly be done” - Putin

(ISW). Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued fixation on the Russian “Oreshnik” ballistic missile and Russia’s non-nuclear deterrents suggests that the Kremlin may be searching for off-ramps from its continued nuclear saber-rattling narrative.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russian losses per 17/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1600 men
+4 tanks
+15 AFVs
+8 artillery pieces

Ukraine’s AIr Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight and early morning. Out of 31 launched, 20 were shot down. Another 10 were supressed by electronic warfare. One Shahed remains active

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

In the Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 68 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian forces have closed off and captured a Ukrainian held salient near Kurakhivka.

Russian Territory –

24 hours after Ukraine filed international charges against Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the Commander of the Russian Armed Force’s Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defence Unit, for ordering the use of chemical weapons during the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, he was killed by a bomb fixed to a scooter. Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed credit for the attack. He is reported to be one of the most Senior Russian Officers killed during the War.
One of his Deputies was also killed.

Summary —

Uptick in Russian losses equate in uptick in fighting.

N Korean losses are growing - See N/S Korea above. Wounded in the hundreds, killed likely in the dozens. This is equating to a disaster for both Russia and NK. Becomes questionable if NK is going to send more troops to be cannon fodder.

Europe / NATO General –

German Chancellor Scholz loses parliamentary confidence vote, paving the way for snap elections in February.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel expands occupation in Syria

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu made a unscheduled trip to Crete. Purpose and agenda are unknown.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Defense Minister Israel Katz says Israel will continue to rule over Gaza militarily after the war.

“Once we defeat Hamas’s military power and ruling power in Gaza, Israel will control security in Gaza with full freedom to act, just as in Judea and Samaria,” he says, in reference to the West Bank.

“We will not allow any terrorist activity against Israeli communities and citizens from Gaza. We will not allow a return to the pre-October 7 reality.”

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/katz-israel-to-maintain-security-control-over-gaza-after-war-with-full-freedom-to-act/

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF took out some Hezbollah activities in violation of the ceasefire

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

See Syria below

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

A civil war of sorts continues to grow in Judea and Samaria as Abbas’ PA and armed terrorists continue to fight as the PA begins its campaign for new leadership of the region, following a delay due to the US elections.

Abbas wants to prove Trump he’s the right candidate to take control over Gaza and receive more aid from the US

https://x.com/mossadil/status/1868906809056280899?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

A ballistic missile (Houthi’s called it a ‘hypersonic’ missile) launched at Israel from Yemen was successfully intercepted by air defenses, the military says.
The IDF says the missile was shot down before crossing the county’s borders

Israeli Broadcasting Authority, citing an official: We are considering carrying out a strike in Yemen following the missile that was launched today towards central Israel

Airstrikes pounded Sana’a, the capital of Yemen. Conflicting reports of who is responsible, with various sources saying Israel and others saying the USA.
Some preliminary reports are suggesting that the head of military intelligence and second in command of the Houthis, Abu Ali al-Hakim, was one of the targets of the attack.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel expand control of Syrian territory east of the Golan. Appears to be firming up support for Druze communities and their call for protection. Druze in Israel are afforded full rights and I think that they are confident in Israel looking out for their best interest, especially in view of Israel’s demolition of Hezbollah as promised to a Druze community where a dozen children were killed by a Hezbollah rocket earlier this year.

Hamas appears to be accepting of a continued Israeli presence in Gaza as a ceasefire and hostage release deal is being worked out.

Hezbollah has remained subdued in Lebanon. There appears to be no evidence that they have been able to receive much in the way of arms and munitions from Syrian bases they and Iran once ran.

Watching to see if Israel targets Islamic Resistance elements in Iraq. Same too for major strike against the Houthi.

Further action against Iran is still in the RUMINT stage. Its going to happen, the key issue is timing. Hit now before biden leaves or wait until Trump is in charge and all the geopolitical ramifications therein.

Iran –

Iran is facing severe fuel shortages due to a surge in demand caused by freezing weather, outdated infrastructure, and the impact of international sanctions. In response, authorities have extended school closures, shut down cities, and suspended power plant operations to manage the crisis. The shortages have led to widespread disruptions across the country, with no immediate solutions in sight. - FT

https://x.com/osint613/status/1868684660584186089?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - This is what happens when you spend billions on arming and supporting terror groups and ignore your citizens. This is another point of friction that may generate new civil uprisings against the mullahs.

Iraq -

Rumint. Israel is preparing for a very large attack on the Iranian proxy in Iraq. All pro-Iranian militia leaders are now hiding under the ground.

Syria -

Former Leader of Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and now Leader of the Syrian Transitional Government, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, who currently leads the new administration in parts of Syria, has declared that Syrian territory will not be used for attacks against Israel. This follows Israel’s decision to expand settlements in the Golan Heights and ongoing strikes on Syrian targets. al-Jolani also reaffirmed his commitment to the 1974 Syria-Israel Agreement, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts amid regional tensions.

***
Israeli troops have been operating in several Syrian villages beyond the buffer zone in southern Syria in the past day, according to local media .The Daraa 24 outlet yesterday reported that Israeli army soldiers entered the village of Ma’ariya, located a few hundred meters east of the buffer zone in the southern Golan Heights, and questioned locals. The outlet says that today, Israeli army tanks entered the town of Saidah, also located on the edge of the buffer zone. The Israeli army has said that its deployment to the buffer zone and strategic positions in the area is a defensive and temporary measure amid the situation in Syria, and it would remain there until it clears up.

These appear to be Druze villages that have called for Israel to protect them. The Druze minority has historically faced forced conversion to Islam at the hands of HTS, which now controls Syria.

Lebanese reports that the IDF has taken control of the Al Wahda Dam, which controls the sources of the Yarmouk river in Syria.

***
(ISW). HTS continues to consolidate security control over disparate armed groups in Syria.

Former regime soldiers in coastal areas of Syria are reportedly giving up their arms to HTS-led authorities as part of a settlement process.

***
Al-Arabiya reports that the remaining Russian Forces in Syria, located at the Naval Base in Tartus and Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia, are expected to depart in the coming days. Russian forces scattered across Syria are reported to be continuing to head towards Latakia and Tartis for extraction.

Reports continue of Russia efforts to try to resecure use of Tartis and Latakia. In the interim, reports also indicate that efforts to secure facilities in Libya are on going.

***
US airstrikes vs ISIS in Syria - targeted camps, operatives Monday. Initial assessment - 12 ISIS fighters killed, no civilian casualties, per PentagonPresSec MajGen Par Ryder

***
Israeli warplanes have returned over the capital, Damascus, with air raids in the vicinity of the Sayyida Zeinab area.

***
The Syrian Transport Ministry has announced the reopening of Syrian Airspace to International Commercial Flights, with work at Damascus International Airport for its opening on Wednesday now 90% Complete.

***
The Turkish army removed the separation wall between Ayn Al Arab/Kobane and Turkiye

The U.S. fears Türkiye’s military buildup near the Syrian border signals an imminent incursion into PKK/YPG rebel group held Ayn al-Arab.
PKK/YPG/PYD officials urged President-elect Trump to pressure Turkish President Erdogan.

JORDAN -

Growing concerns the revolution that hit Syria may spill over into Jordan.

Turkey –

The United States is increasingly alarmed that Turkey and its militia allies are preparing for a large-scale military incursion into Syrian territory controlled by US-backed Kurdish forces, according to an exclusive Wall Street Journal report on Tuesday, citing US officials.

The officials cited a significant Turkish military buildup near Kobani, a Kurdish-majority city on the Syria-Turkey border, sparking fears of imminent conflict.

According to US officials cited in the report, the buildup resembled Turkish movements seen ahead of its 2019 invasion of northeast Syria. One US official, speaking to the WSJ, warned that “a cross-border operation could be imminent.”

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-833777

Misc of Note –

The drone wars are not over yet.

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has confirmed that radioactive material was lost in transit earlier this month, heightening fears about public safety and sparking theories about mysterious drone activity in New Jersey.
Officer Lew, a prominent political commentator, highlighted the NRC’s event report during a review of regulatory alerts.

“While looking at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Alerts. I can confirm that there is radioactive material that has gone missing on Dec 2nd, 2024 out of New Jersey. This might be the reason for the drones… just speculation at this point,” he wrote.

According to the NRC’s report, the radioactive source, while classified as “Less than IAEA Category 3,” still poses potential risks if mishandled or exposed for prolonged periods.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/12/u-s-nuclear-regulatory-commission-releases-report-confirming/

Definitions from the NRC for the level of material lost -

Category 3 sources, if not safely or securely managed, could cause permanent injury to a person who handled them or was otherwise in contact with them for hours. It could possibly—although it is unlikely to—be fatal to be close to this amount of unshielded radioactive material for a period of days to weeks. These sources are typically used in fixed industrial gauges such as level gauges, dredger gauges, conveyor gauges, spinning pipe gauges, and well-logging gauges.

Category 4 sources, if not safely managed or securely protected, could possibly cause temporary injury to someone who handled them or was otherwise in contact with or close to them for a period of many weeks, though this is unlikely. It is very unlikely anyone would be permanently injured by this amount of radioactive material. These sources are typically used in fixed or portable gauges, static eliminators, or low-dose brachytherapy.

https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/basic-ref/glossary/category-of-radioactive-sources.html

OBSERVATION - As I noted yesterday, the search for nuclear material was one potential cause for the sudden increase in unusual air/drone traffic. Is this the cause and is the govt being straight about it?

The categories only note lethality. Normal small quantities of these radioactive substances are generally not sufficient for a dirty bomb. The next question then becomes how MUCH of this material was stolen. If a lot was stolen, then the utility for a dirty bomb rises.

The container for the item was found busted up and opened upon arrival in New Jersey - not a good thing. This means it was a deliberate and targeted action. This NRC announcement creates more questions than answers.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024

The Federal Reserve is expected to lower borrowing costs Wednesday in what some observers are calling a “hawkish cut” set to be delivered alongside policymakers’ updated interest rate outlooks and economic forecasts covering the first months of the incoming Trump administration.

The anticipated quarter-percentage-point move would lower the U.S. central bank’s benchmark policy rate to the 4.25%-4.50% range, a full percentage point below where it stood in September when it began easing the tight monetary policy used to counter a surge in inflation that began in 2021.
How much further and how fast rates will fall next year remains increasingly uncertain with inflation still lodged above the Fed’s 2% target, the economy growing faster than expected, and the prospect that President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff, tax and immigration policies could change the economic landscape in unpredictable ways once he takes office in January.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/fed-rate-decision/2024/12/18/id/1192060/

OBSERVATION - Not unexpected, but how well based is the decision in economic realities vs wishful thinking.

***
Prices of new cars rose last month, along with sales numbers and higher incentives offered by dealerships, according to automotive research company Kelley Blue Book.

The average transaction price for a new vehicle in November was $48,724, up 1.5 percent year-over-year, according to a Dec. 11 statement from Kelley Blue Book. This was the second consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Despite the higher prices, new vehicle sales rose last month.

“Higher prices were met with higher discounts in November, which has kept the retail business moving,” said Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Erin Keating.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/new-vehicle-prices-jump-in-november-kelley-blue-book-5776808?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION - Mixed news, but to consider paying $49K for a new car is outrageous.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Moderna has paused its mRNA RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) vaccine trial for children after five infants were hospitalized with severe respiratory complications.

This comes just days after the FDA quietly admitted it had halted enrollment in similar trials, citing safety concerns for children under two years old.

The news broke during Thursday’s FDA Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meeting, where panelists struggled to navigate the safety implications of Moderna’s findings, Fierce Pharma reported.

Henry Bernstein, a professor of pediatrics at Hofstra/Northwell, stated, “This all seems like an incredible conundrum with lots of unanswered questions remaining—lots to still learn.”

The halted trial, identified as mRNA-1365-P101, sought to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of two mRNA-based vaccines, mRNA-1345 and mRNA-1365. The vaccines were designed to protect infants and toddlers against RSV.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/12/moderna-halts-mrna-rsv-vaccine-trial-children-after/

OBSERVATION - Dodged a bullet on full on rollout of this toxin? The flood of ill fated mRNA based ‘vaccines’ continues to be dangerous - more dangerous than the disease they claim to be fighting.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Top Republicans and Democrats in Congress unveiled a stopgap measure on Tuesday to keep federal agencies funded through March 14, averting a partial government shutdown that would otherwise begin Saturday.

The measure would likely keep the roughly $6.2 trillion federal budget running at its current level, funding programs ranging from the military, air traffic controllers and federal regulators for areas ranging from drug safety to securities markets.

It also includes $100.4 billion in new emergency funding to help states including North Carolina and Florida recover from devastating hurricanes, as well as western wildfires and other recent disasters.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/congress-stopgap-funding/2024/12/17/id/1192039/

Senator Rand Paul announces he will delay the passage of the massive Omnibus Spending Bill if it clears the House, potentially leading to a government shutdown if not passed by Friday.

OBSERVATION - This CR is some 1500 (!) pages long for a 90 day extension. Business as normal by the congress critters. This has got to stop.

***
From the House report on the J6 hearings:

Based on the evidence obtained by this Subcommittee, numerous federal laws were likely broken by Liz Cheney, the former Vice Chair of the January 6 Select Committee, and these violations should be investigated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Evidence uncovered by the Subcommittee revealed that former Congresswoman Liz Cheney tampered with at least one witness, Cassidy Hutchinson, by secretly communicating with Hutchinson without Hutchinson’s attorney’s knowledge. This secret communication with a witness is improper and likely violates 18 U.S.C. 1512. Such action is outside the due functioning of the legislative process and therefore not protected by the Speech and Debate clause.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation must also investigate Representative Cheney for violating 18 U.S.C. 1622, which prohibits any person from procuring another person to commit perjury. Based on the evidence obtained by this Subcommittee, Hutchinson committed perjury when she lied under oath to the Select Committee.

This all stems back to the “Trump grabbing the steering wheel” story, which would’ve helped pin the “insurrection” on President Trump if it’d been true.

Hutchinson was a witness before the J6 committee. She claimed that when then-President Donald Trump was leaving the Stop the Steal rally at the Elipse in Washington, DC, following his speech, he attempted to grab the steering wheel of the car that was driving him back to the White House. This testimony was debunked in March 2024 by the Secret Service agent who was driving the car, which Hutchinson was not actually in.

https://notthebee.com/article/house-report-says-liz-cheney-should-be-investigated-for-witness-tampering-at-j6-hearings

OBSERVATION - Cheney along with her other cohorts on the J6 committee are in deep kimchee. This doesn’t even begin to touch the destruction of evidence by same committee.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024
Alert status maintained due to persistent presence of Chinese hackers in US networks.

Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) published a new draft National Cyber Incident Response Plan (NCIRP) on Monday. CISA Director Jen Easterly said the “increasingly complex threat environment demands that we have a seamless, agile, and effective incident response framework,” and the new plan will help the federal government and private sector coordinate responses to cyberattacks.

North/South Korea –

Putin reportedly paid Kim Jong Un up to $6 billion for weapons and North Korean soldiers, according to The New York Times.

The Hankuk Institute in Seoul estimates Pyongyang’s arms shipments were worth $1.72–$5.5 billion, partially paid in cash and the rest in oil and food.

For deploying 5,000–20,000 troops, North Korea could have earned $143–$572 million.

With 11,000 soldiers reportedly in Russia’s Kursk region, Pyongyang may have received about $315 million.

Russia -

*****
Analysts are tracking a large number of cargo flights out of Syria headed to Libya, suggestion that Russia is reinforcing its position there for at least the interim as negotiations reportedly continue with the new Syrian govt for continued use of Tartis and other bases.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 81 launched, 51 were shot down by regular air defense and 30 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Damage at the shopping mall in Saltivsky district in Kharkiv as result of a drone attack was reported.

Russian losses per 18/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1580 men
+4 tanks
+21 APVs
+5 artillery systems

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 42 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Ukrainian Military withdrew from some positions near Sontsivka and Novyy Komar village, - The Khortytsia operational-strategic group

Mandatory evacuation for families with children have been announced in Udachne community of Donetsk region

Summary —

Continued uptick in Russian losses equate in uptick in fighting. Russia still making small advances in the Pokrovsk region, but advances on the town itself seem to have stalled again. Russian efforts to push Ukraine out of Kursk continue with little results.

Ukraine winter is setting in quickly now, and ground operations will have to face increasing issues with mud interfering with cross country movements.

Apart from the standard Shahed attacks, both countries seem to be at a pause in their deeper drone/missile warfare.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu makes a surprise visit onto Israeli controlled Syrian territory.

- Netanyahu says Israel is willing to renegotiate the 1974 treaty with the new Syrian govt.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Under the cover story of an unscheduled trip to Crete, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin and Defense Minister Israel Katz visited the peak of Mount Hermon earlier today, on the Syrian side of the border, after the site was captured by the Israeli army last week. He also said Israel is willing to renegotiate the 1974 treaty with Syria under its new rulers.

Experts show that if Israel installs a radar on the summit of Mount Hermon, Israel will have coverage all the way to Iraq.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

IAF strikes across central and N Gaza.

Various outlets are suggesting that Hamas is facing a leadership crisis brought on by the losses of nearly all their senior commanders.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army: We carried out an airstrike in southern Lebanon after a Hezbollah member was spotted loading weapons onto a vehicle

Israel continued to destroy Hezbollah bunkers and facilities in S Lebanon overnight. Numerous explosions reported.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli airstrikes in Syria to prevent Hezbollah or any other terror group to get their hands on Syrian army assets has slowed down considerably.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli security forces continued to operate in numerous areas of the region.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Reports overnight of U.S-Coalition airstrikes on the City of Hodeida in Western Yemen.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel continues to conduct clean up operations in both Gaza and occupied S Lebanon. Hezbollah has largely been silent following the overthrow of Assad’s govt by Hezbollah/Iranian hostile rebel forces. The ball is now in the court of Lebanon, to see if they have the political will to exclude Hezbollah from the society and country.

Lots of rumors on hostage releases - still probably weeks out if at all.

Iran is still licking its wounds from the devastating loss of Hezbollah and its operations in Syria. The big question continues to be will Israel strike their nuclear program before or after Trump takes office? Will Iran try to strike Israel first, before Trump comes into office? This window is now down to about a month. Iran is wounded and a wounded animal can be dangerous.

The new Syrian govt is getting irritated with the Israeli airstrikes, but is impotent to stop them. Israel appears to be finished with them as well as stopping its movements to control the 1974 buffer zone. The rebel Syrian govt is unlikely to challenge Israeli power for a while.

Lebanon -

Lebanese Prime Minister: The information we received from the Syrian authorities regarding the issue of Lebanese forcibly disappeared in Syrian prisons is “not encouraging”

Saudi Arabia –

A Saudi official told no “breakthrough” has been achieved between Saudi Arabia and Israel regarding “normalization” of relations. “The notion that the kingdom’s leadership has somehow modified its longstanding commitment to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state is equally baseless”, the Saudi official said. The Saudi official added that the kingdom’s position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “has been clear and consistent for decades and our determination to end the war on Gaza is unshakable”. “The kingdom of Saudi Arabia will continue to work towards ending the war in Gaza and helping the Palestinian people achieve their right to an independent state”, the Saudi official said

Syria -

US Central Command carried out precision airstrikes against ISIS camps and operatives in Syria on December 16, killing 12 ISIS terrorists.
The strikes against ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps were carried out as part of the ongoing mission to disrupt, harm, and defeat ISIS, prevent the organization from carrying out external attacks, and ensure that ISIS does not take advantage of opportunities to regroup in central Syria.
The latest attacks were also carried out in areas controlled by the regime and the Russians, in order to continue to exert pressure on ISIS.

***
Satellite imagery reveals Russia has begun a large-scale loading operation at the Hmeimim air base to relocate heavy equipment, including mobile S-400 missile launchers, from Syria following the fall of the Assad regime, reports washingtonpost.

***
Syrian sources report that Israeli warplanes attacked the radar battalion near the Deir ez-Zor airport in eastern Syria last night. According to these sources, additional targets near the airport were also attacked.

***
Turkish troop build up on the Northern Syrian border is continuing to cause international concern.

Turkey –

Turkey has been outspoken in past years in its desire to create a buffer zone in Syria to prevent Kurdish forces from raiding into S Turkey and the build up of border forces indicates that they are planning to take advantage in the chaos surrounding the regime change to move that plan forward. Kurds in the region are supported by US as part of the ISIS fighting coalition and any conflict could place US and Turkish forces on a collision course.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,100 points after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates but signaled they might stay higher than investors expected in 2025.

Heading into the meeting, traders had expected that the Fed would cut interest rates twice next year. Interest-rate futures now indicate a strong probability that the Fed will cut rates only once in 2025, or not all.

OBSERVATION - The fed threw cold water on expected loosening of the prime rate and raised the specter of inflation once again with tighter controls.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency due to the bird flu in California on Wednesday, despite the virus’s low risk to the public.
OBSERVATION - Developing. Many see some precursors to a potential nation wide “emergency”.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Following the release yesterday of the 1500+ page abomination called a CR, all hades broke loose on Speaker Johnson and any Republican supporters of the bill.

The assembled forces of DOGE, lead by Musk , and Vivek Ramaswamy and Americans on “X”, the bill was picked apart and the massive grift, waste and abuse quickly brought into the open. That opened the floodgates to the Capitol Switchboard and filled republicans voice mail boxes quickly. By yesterday afternoon, Trump and Vance were on record being against the bill. Vance reportedly met with Johnson to ‘discuss’ the bill.

It now looks like the bill has been pulled and a shift to a “clean” CR is in the offing.

After accusing GOP leaders of breaking a pact and threatening a government shutdown, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) hinted on Wednesday that Democrats would oppose any federal spending package that deviates from the bipartisan pact unveiled the day before.

In a succinct statement, Jeffries cautioned Republicans that they will have to “own” the political and economic consequences of any shutdown, highlighting the mounting outcry against the negotiated continuing resolution (CR), including vocal opposition from President-elect Donald Trump.

The CR was initially being leveraged as a way to get $100 billion in emergency aid to W NC and TN suffering from lack of govt response from recent hurricanes. It was an emotional blackmail ploy.

OBSERVATION - I’ll leave other threads in FR to discuss the horrific crap filling the 1500+ pages that were supposedly crafted in a “bipartisan” manner. Suffice it to say if it weren’t for Musk and the renewed “X” platform, word would never have gotten out on just how demonic the bill was until after it passed. Speaker Johnson, after hanging around Trump since the election, quickly showed his real self in allowing this bill to even see the light of day. His days as speaker are numbered.

Big to the discussion was the warning to any republican who votes for this CR the very real threat of being primaried out of office. Being tone deaf to the demands of Americans from the election results will not work well for them. I find it hard to understand why an republican would support anything but a clean CR?

Back up plan if the congressional republicans passed this mess was Sen Paul and some others ready to block it in the senate.

The current extension expires this Friday and a limited shutdown could commence shortly thereafter. NOTE - parts of the govt will be designated essentially as ‘non essential’ My what a good starting point for cutting govt waste.

Final good observation -
“No, they don’t have to be bipartisan. The House can simply pass a bill that continues spending at present levels for a few months, with no other provisions. If the Democrats who still control the Senate for the next month want to hold out for unrelated concessions, they can decline to pass the bill. Then the government will “shut down.” Who cares? Let the government stay “shut down” until Senate Democrats relent, or the new Congress assembles. Democrats will mind that more than Republicans will.”
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/12/doge-showdown.php

Biden / Harris Watch –

Just 34% of Americans approve of Joe Biden’s job performance while 66% disapprove — putting him underwater by an abysmal 32 points!

That’s marks the worst net approval rating Biden has posted in the Marquette Law School national poll since taking office.

https://x.com/CortesSteve/status/1869449510960963925

North/South Korea –

South Korean intelligence reports heavy losses among North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia in the Kursk region, per Reuters. Reports indicate that around 100 killed and 1,000 wounded.

The high casualties are due to their lack of experience in “drone warfare” and unfamiliarity with the open terrain where battles are taking place.

OBSERVATION - Another key factor is a language barrier / communications issues.

Russia -

Putin:

We have evacuated 4,000 Iranian fighters to Tehran from the Khmeimim base.

Russia was not defeated in Syria. We achieved our goal in Syria, we did not allow the creation of an Islamic caliphate, it was not terrorists who came to power there.

30,000 government troops and pro-Iranian units retreated without a fight.

NOTE - He is blaming Syria for its loss, disavowing any Russian contribution (or lack thereof)

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russian losses per 19/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1530 men
+5 tanks
+27 APVs
+14 artillery pieces
+1 AD system

Ukraines Air Force reports on a missile and shahed drone attack overnight.

Shot down:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
45/85 Shahed drones
Another 40 drones were suppressed by electronic warfare. No information about damage was received.

The Russian Defense Ministry reported 84 drones were shot down overnight over seven regions, with the largest number of UAVs — 36 and 21 — shot down over the Rostov and Bryansk regions.

Russian Territory –

Yesterday, the Rostov region was attacked, targeting -among other things- the Kamensky plant. The plant produces rocket fuel, including for intercontinental missiles, as well as explosives and ammunition components.
Russia believes Ukraine attacked Rostov region with ATACMS or Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG.

Overnight, explosions occurred in Rostov-on-Don. It was reported that the Rostselmash plant in Rostov-on-Don, known for repairing and upgrading armored vehicles, was hit.

The General Staff confirmed the Russian Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery was struck and hit. This facility supplies the Russian armed forces with fuel, specializing in producing mazut, diesel, furnace, and marine fuel, with a capacity of 7.5 million tons of oil annually. A fire has been confirmed at the ELOU-AVT-2.5 catalytic cracking unit.

Summary —

Russia continues to try to maintain to the initiative in the fight as reflected in the reported casualties, though they are not as high as last week. Very limited success by any of the Russian attacks.

It was another relatively ineffective Shahed attack by Russian but a far more successful series of drone / missile attacks by Ukraine.

On a strategic level, the bow wake of Trumps return to the WH continues to force Ukraine and Russia to publicly address ceasefire issues.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IAF hit Houthi targets overnight

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel rejected Turkish accusations on Tuesday following Ankara’s condemnation of Israeli military actions in Syria, as Turkey escalates its own operations in the war-torn country. The rising tensions have deepened the rift between the two nations and sparked concerns over regional stability and the fate of U.S.-backed Kurdish forces fighting ISIS.

On Tuesday, Israel’s Foreign Ministry issued a response on X. “Turkey has systematically encroached on Syrian territory… Approximately 15% of Syria’s territory is under Turkish-backed control. In these areas, the Turkish currency is in use, and Turkish bank branches and postal services have been operating.
“Furthermore, the Turkish military bombards infrastructure in the northeastern autonomous region of Syria using aircraft and UAVs. Turkey supports jihadist forces that operate against Kurds in Syria. The last country that can speak about occupation in Syria is Turkey… There is no justification for Turkish aggression and violence against Kurds in Syria!”

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-56/

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

IDF is working the Gaza Palestinian terrorists this morning with 24 terrorists being eliminated in IDF strikes in the Gaza Strip this morning so far.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF continues to destroy Hezbollah facilities found in the occupied areas of S Lebanon.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Palestinians are reporting that Tarek al-Dush, commander of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades in the Tulkarm camp, was killed in the airstrike. An Israeli drone struck a car in the Tulkarm camp in the West Bank, the Israeli army said

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi’s launched a ballistic missile at Israel that was intercepted before entering the country. Parts of that missile hit a school.
According to an initial probe in the Israeli Air Force, the missile launched by the Houthis from Yemen at Israel overnight was only partially intercepted by the Arrow air defense system. The missile’s warhead remained intact, without exploding in the air. It then crashed and exploded on a school in Ramat Gan, causing a building to collapse.

In response, Israel attacked the Haziz power station in the south of the capital Sanaa, two attacks targeted the D’Habban power station in the north of Sanaa. Four attacks targeted the port of Al-Hodeidah in the west of the country, two attacks targeted the oil facility in Ras Al-Issa also in western Yemen. In Al-Hodeidah, there are reports of power outages in most neighborhoods. For the first time, Israeli struck in the capital Sanaa area!

At least 9 Workers are now reported to have been Killed, as a result of Israeli Airstrikes on the Ras Al-Issa Oil Refinery and Port within the City of Hodeida in Western Yemen.

The powerful strikes came less than an hour after a Yemeni ballistic missile was intercepted above Israel and pieces of interceptors caused damage to a building near Tel Aviv.

It’s estimated that the IAF strikes in Yemen overnight paralyzed all three ports controlled by the Houthis, crippling the Iranian regime’s ability to send weapons to the Houthis by sea.

The Houthis have launched some 200 missiles and 120 UAVs at Israel in the last 14 months (most did not reach Israel).

Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti to Al-Arabiya TV: We will respond to the Israeli raids on Sanaa and Hodeidah, and escalation will be met with escalation. Our military operations will escalate, and we have a bank of targets that will hurt America, Britain, and Israel. Our position is just, and we will stop our military operations if the aggression on Gaza stops.

OBSERVATION - Note the difference between Israeli strikes and those of the US/Coalition?

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Biggest news is the IAF hitting key infrastructure targets under Houthi control. I note the difference between US/Coalition and Israeli strikes. The Israeli strikes display STRENGTH and are very open for the population to see (and feel the effects from). Western ‘strikes’ seek to avoid such and though they may hit some military facilities - evidence from Hamas and Hezbollah are that they have a lot scattered throughout the countryside, many underground, and would require a sustained effort like in Gaza and Lebanon to effective reduce that threat. These Israeli attacks go for the throat and with the situation stable in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and even Iran, the Houthi will be facing a lot of scrutiny in the coming days.

Iran is so weakened that there is very little support they can now offer them. The only practical means of supply by Iran is via air cargo. Sea lift of military supplies is virtually done with the amount of damage to the three Houthi ports now. Airlift is very costly, and Iran doesn’t have the spare change to support what is necessary - they have big trouble brewing at home.

Israel has now threatened Houthi leadership with targeting. If anything, Houthi leaders will be losing a lot of sleep, judging from the success Israel has had hunting leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.

Iran –

After the E3, known as Britain, France and Germany accused Iran yesterday of growing its Stockpile of Highly-Enriched Uranium to “Unprecedented Levels” without Civil Justification; the Iranian Ambassador to the U.N. threatened the Three Countries, stating that if they reimpose Sanctions on Iran, then they will face a “Harsh and Disproportionate Response” which will create a Major Crisis that does not serve the Interests of either Side.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1869264236867670304?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Iran’s only ace in the hole at this stage is their nuclear program and their race to get the bomb.

Syria -

US supported SDF calls on Kobane(Ayn al-Arab) residents to take up arms (Kurdish region) (Reuters)

***
Syrian rebels leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa (Al-Julani): Syria will not be Afghanistan and I believe in educating women

***
Threat of expanded Turkish attacks in the north are growing. If Turkey commences with attacks, it may cause a more direct confrontation with the US.

Turkey –

During an interview with Al Jazeera, Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan would not directly deny that Turkey is preparing for a significant joint Turkish military-SNA offensive in Northern Syria. When directly asked if Turkey was preparing for an offensive, Fidan instead chose to focus on the Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) connections to groups that Turkey designates as terrorist entities. Wrapping up his answer, he said that “we don’t want to disturb certain balances in the region, but we must keep our national interests [observed] and safe,” without definitively denying the coming offensive.

In the same interview with Al Jazeera, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan addressed the current decision-makers in Damascus, saying that “if they address this situation (Kurdish forces in northern Syria) properly, then there will be no reason for us to intervene.” This likely indicates that Turkey is pressuring the new government, led by Hay’at
Tahrir al-Sham’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, to take action against the SDF and/or subordinate groups that Turkey has designated as terrorist organizations.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1869505252476764339?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
Turkish President Erdogan exchanged a brief greeting with Iran’s President ahead of D8 leaders summit in Cairo. This is their first engagement since the fall of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria

***
Turkish Defense Ministry: No agreement on truce with SDF in northern Syria. The factions we support will control the Kurdish areas in northern Syria

***
Turkish Ministry of Defense: We strongly condemn Israel’s decision to expand illegal settlements in the Golan Heights, which it has occupied since 1967.

Misc of Note –

Drones -

At least 17 military bases adjacent to Chinese-owned farmland across the US have experienced a rash of drone sightings in recent weeks, The Post has learned.

Mysterious drones have been reported near military bases in Hawaii and by installations in Utah, California, Maine and Florida — among other facilities scattered throughout the country.

The Post previously identified 19 military bases that lie in close proximity to farmland bought up by Chinese-owned companies — a situation that has worried China analysts, who feared the Communist country would use the land to spy on US military operations.

All of those facilities apart from Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota and Joint Base San Antonio-Camp Bullis in Texas had reports of drones either attempting to fly over their bases or nearby, according to local reports.

https://nypost.com/2024/12/18/us-news/drones-seen-by-17-military-bases-next-to-chinese-owned-us-land/?

OBSERVATION - This evidence contributes to my concerns that hostile agents - in this case likely the Chinese - have their droned buried in the midst of this ongoing now nationwide flap.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

More murders of business leaders are coming, two-thirds of U.S. likely voters warn in reaction to the recent slaying of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson.

National surveys by Rasmussen, Emerson College Polling and Economist/YouGov all found significant empathy for Thompson’s murder and suspect Luigi Mangione:

- 20% of U.S. adult citizens view Mangione favorably.
- 27% of U.S. likely voters say Thompson’s murder “was an understandable reaction to the high cost of health care in America.”
- 17% of U.S. voters say Thompson’s murder at least “somewhat acceptable,” including eight percent who consider it “completely acceptable.”

Perhaps more disturbing, fully two-thirds (67%) of U.S. likely voters call it at least somewhat likely that the murder of the healthcare CEO “will inspire copycats who target other business executives,” Rasmussen reports.

Of those, 25% call it “very likely” and 42% say it’s “somewhat likely” that copycats will try to kill the heads of other disliked businesses and industries.

While belief that the murder will inspire copycats was consistent among all demographic cohorts in the Rasmussen survey, all three of the national surveys found that empathy for either the murder or suspect is highest among young and Democrat respondents.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/more-murders-business-leaders-are-coming-americans-warn

OBSERVATION - Noted before, assassination of high profile ‘capitolists’ by radical marxists is a tactic that has been used a number of times in various countries over the past. The fact that it appears that the mentality has penetrated so deeply into the American left is what is increasingly disturbing to me. Indicates that the left is willing to up the violence factor another notch in an effort to silence their opposition and state their ‘cause’.

Additionally, this is fruit of the ‘dehumanization’ efforts of the left to justify violence in general against any opponents - primarily those on the right. Should something trigger mass rioting by the left, I expect much more significant violence directed towards the right/republicans than seen in 2020.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1

***
A George Mason University student, an Egyptian national, has been arrested for planning a terrorist attack against the Israeli consulate in NY with explosives.
This comes after two other students at the university were found with “Death to Jews” signs, Hamas flags, and guns in their house.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Pentagon says there are now 2,000 US troops in Syria, up from previous level of 900 “core” presence. Additional ~1,100 are “temporary rotational forces” deployed to meet “shifting mission requirements,” PentagonPresSec says

OBSERVATION - This growth was relatively ‘secret’. May be in part the result of the regional build up of forces in the region to convince Iran not to continue attacks against Israel and Iranian backed militia attacks on existing US/Coalition bases.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The US House rejected Trump backed bill to prevent a government shutdown later yesterday. This second bill was a stripped down to a little over 100 pages, down from the 1500+ page monster. 38 republicans voted against it.

House Republicans are now reportedly exploring a plan to divide the spending bill into smaller parts for individual votes rather than passing it as a single package, according to Politico.

Posible configuration

Bill 1 - Freeze current spending and extend 90 days
Bill 2 - Disaster relief
Bill 3 - Farm bill
Bill 4 - Suspend debt ceiling for two years.

OBSERVATION - Quite frankly, this third plan is what should have come out the first time.
This CR fight has exposed republican representatives who are hostile towards Trump and the voter mandate he is riding into DC on. These pre-presidency fights may be short lived as public pressure is maintained and the threat of being primaried loom. Similar to what happened to some of the senate republicans.

***
The Georgia Court of Appeals removed Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis from an election subversion case against President-elect Donald Trump.
Willis is expected to appeal against the ruling, which is seen as a major legal victory for Trump.

The ruling reverses the trial judge’s decision to allow Willis to stay on the case after it was revealed she had a romantic relationship with a prosecutor she had hired.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c77jdk4k717o

OBSERVATION - Now it must be decided if the case is to proceed under a new attorney, or to drop the case altogether. Rumblings suggest that finding a replacement attorney will be extremely difficult given how corrupted the current case is. Willis is in serious trouble overall and could be soon facing criminal charges should Georgia get some backbone.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Biden / Harris Watch –

Unconfirmed reports that Kamala Harris just abruptly cancelled her planned trip to California and “raced to the White House,” per reporters

Biden also just returned to DC, after being expected to stay in Delaware until after Christmas

OBSERVATION - This could be in anticipation of a govt shutdown. However, they’ve been vacationing like crazy since the election all the while the world was burning down, so why all the critical attention on a potential shut down - if that is the real reason.

Illegal Immigration –

Influenced by Trump’s threat of imposition of tariffs, Dominic LeBlanc, the Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs in Canada, officially commits $1.3 billion to help secure Canada’s border with the United States.

Their focus will be on fent*nyl, human tra**icking, and crimes that cross our border.

China –

China announces the development of a Mach 7 drone.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraines Air Force reports on the missile and drone attack from last night and this morning.
Shot down:
5/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile
0/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
40/65 Shahed drones
In addition, 20 more Shahed drones were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Missiles that got thru hit near Boryspil Airport as well as the downtown area of Kyiv.

Russian Ministry of defense says strikes in Kyiv is a response to all recent Ukrainian attacks in Russia, including liquidation of chemical protection general and missile strikes at military enterprise in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky. Claiming they’ve targeted SBU command post, Luch design bureau and Patriot battery

Russian losses per 20/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+2200(!!) men
+8 tanks
+24 APVs
+42 artillery systems
+1 AD system

A very bad day for Russian troops, double the daily losses from just earlier this week.

Summary —

The tit for tat exchange of deep strike missile/drone attacks continue. Though Ukraine manages to take out a significant number of missiles, some still manage to get thru.

Trying to pin down what part of the front the significant Russia casualties came from. One of the worst one day totals this year. This also seems to run opposite to the reported numbers of attacks for the period across the front, which were down. No reports of terrain captured by Russia either.

Middle East / N. Africa General -

LIBYA - Libya PM says moving Russia’s Syrian arms to the nation is unacceptable. Dbeibah says foreign forces can’t impose will on Libya

OBSERVATION - Russia has reportedly been transferring their Syrian equipment to Libya to reinforce their bases there. In spite of the PM’s words, Russia still maintains a significant influence over the affairs of the country and is the Syrian bases are lost, Libya would provide Russia the ability to still threaten NATO’s southern flank and operation in the Med.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hostage talks stall

——— GENERAL ——————————-

No progress was made towards the completion of a hostage deal/ceasefire agreement on Thursday, and CIA Director William J. Burns, who was in Doha for the talks, left Qatar after being there for a day, a US official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told The Washington Post on Friday.

“They know that if they don’t reach such an agreement, it will not be a good thing for any of them, including the Israelis,” the member of the diplomatic mission said. “I think this has resulted in a lot of developments. ... The question is whether [or not] they wait for Trump.”

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-834257

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Scattered air strikes on identified Hamas et al groupings.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

More demolition of Hezbollah infrastructure in the occupied S. Lebanon region.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Very busy as Israeli security forces operated throughout there region.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi’s talking tough.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Turkish President: We will continue to corner Israel and force it to act according to the law. More Turkey-Israel under Turkey.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

On the Hama/Hezbollah/Iran front, pretty quiet in many respects. How deterred the Houthi’s are is yet to be seen, however, Israel hit them in a way that the US/Coalition forces, and even Saudi Arabia haven’t.

Israel may be headed towards some sort of confrontation with Turkey in Syria. See Turkey below.

Syrians in areas occupied by the IDF have reportedly been on good terms with the soldiers. Much of this area is occupied by Druze and in general, Druze have been treated well in Israel, so they are seen by the broader community as an asset and friend.

The new rebel govt and Turkey will demand Israel withdraw, but neither has the military clout at this time to enforce their demands and in the cased of the rebel govt, my seek negotiated settlement versus fighting.

Iraq -

Iraqi Foreign Minister: ISIS is expanding its areas of control and reorganizing its ranks using weapons it seized as a result of the collapse of the Syrian army

Syria -

Iraq handed over the soldiers of the Fourth Division, affiliated with Maher al-Assad, to the new Syrian authorities.

***
Syria’s largest oil refinery has halted operations after ceasing to receive the crude from Iran that previously made up the vast majority of the country’s input, its general manager told the Financial Times

***
SDF chief Mazloum Abdi tells Reuters that if they reach an agreement with Turkey to end hostilities in northern Syria, non-Syrian Kurdish fighters will leave Syria

Turkey –

Turkiye president Erdogan says US, western powers have a responsibility to stop Israel from invading Syrian territories.
NOTE - Erdogan excuses himself for doing far more in N Syria.

***
Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for an arms embargo on Israel on Thursday and seeks to end to all trade with the Jewish state in hopes of isolating it internationally.

During a talk at the D-8 Summit in Cairo, Erdogan said the measures are necessary to punish Israel for its aggression in the Middle East, Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency reported.

“We see Israel’s steps that disregard Syria’s territorial integrity, including the expansion of illegal settlements in the Golan Heights,” he said. “I believe the D-8 must respond more strongly to the lawlessness threatening Syria’s stability and our region.”

“As Islamic countries, we must lead steps that can be taken against Israel,” Erdogan said. “We must work harder together, as D-8 countries, for a just and lasting peace in the region.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/recep-tayyip-erdogan-turkey-israel/2024/12/19/id/1192294/

***
Erdogan declares that Jerusalem belongs to them (Turkey).

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Turkey and Israel and even the US may come into serious conflict this next year.

This comes as Erdogan talks tough about using economic and even military actions. A key friction point may be the Turkish threat to Syrian Kurds, who are generally favorable towards Israel and the US.

A second may be Turkish support of rebel forces taking up the fight against Israel instead of Hezbollah / Iran. Turkey’s pursuit of becoming the new Caliphate of the region, it has willingly put its support into the rebel forces in Syria, in effect establishing them as their own oriented militia group, much like Iran did with Hezbollah.

Turkey has so far stayed away from positioning themselves to directly engage Israel, making the new Syrian puppet govt their potential sword. Turkey’s military are more focused on genocide of Syrian Kurds in the northern and eastern portions of Syria.

Turkey has gained a viable, unrestricted ground attack route to Israel thru the rebel portions of Syria: Aleppo -> Hama -> Homs -> Damascus.

However, until they are satisfied with their actions against the Kurds, movement of this sort is unlikely in the next year.

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