Replies

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

More murders of business leaders are coming, two-thirds of U.S. likely voters warn in reaction to the recent slaying of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson.

National surveys by Rasmussen, Emerson College Polling and Economist/YouGov all found significant empathy for Thompson’s murder and suspect Luigi Mangione:

- 20% of U.S. adult citizens view Mangione favorably.
- 27% of U.S. likely voters say Thompson’s murder “was an understandable reaction to the high cost of health care in America.”
- 17% of U.S. voters say Thompson’s murder at least “somewhat acceptable,” including eight percent who consider it “completely acceptable.”

Perhaps more disturbing, fully two-thirds (67%) of U.S. likely voters call it at least somewhat likely that the murder of the healthcare CEO “will inspire copycats who target other business executives,” Rasmussen reports.

Of those, 25% call it “very likely” and 42% say it’s “somewhat likely” that copycats will try to kill the heads of other disliked businesses and industries.

While belief that the murder will inspire copycats was consistent among all demographic cohorts in the Rasmussen survey, all three of the national surveys found that empathy for either the murder or suspect is highest among young and Democrat respondents.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/more-murders-business-leaders-are-coming-americans-warn

OBSERVATION - Noted before, assassination of high profile ‘capitolists’ by radical marxists is a tactic that has been used a number of times in various countries over the past. The fact that it appears that the mentality has penetrated so deeply into the American left is what is increasingly disturbing to me. Indicates that the left is willing to up the violence factor another notch in an effort to silence their opposition and state their ‘cause’.

Additionally, this is fruit of the ‘dehumanization’ efforts of the left to justify violence in general against any opponents - primarily those on the right. Should something trigger mass rioting by the left, I expect much more significant violence directed towards the right/republicans than seen in 2020.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1

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A George Mason University student, an Egyptian national, has been arrested for planning a terrorist attack against the Israeli consulate in NY with explosives.
This comes after two other students at the university were found with “Death to Jews” signs, Hamas flags, and guns in their house.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Pentagon says there are now 2,000 US troops in Syria, up from previous level of 900 “core” presence. Additional ~1,100 are “temporary rotational forces” deployed to meet “shifting mission requirements,” PentagonPresSec says

OBSERVATION - This growth was relatively ‘secret’. May be in part the result of the regional build up of forces in the region to convince Iran not to continue attacks against Israel and Iranian backed militia attacks on existing US/Coalition bases.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The US House rejected Trump backed bill to prevent a government shutdown later yesterday. This second bill was a stripped down to a little over 100 pages, down from the 1500+ page monster. 38 republicans voted against it.

House Republicans are now reportedly exploring a plan to divide the spending bill into smaller parts for individual votes rather than passing it as a single package, according to Politico.

Posible configuration

Bill 1 - Freeze current spending and extend 90 days
Bill 2 - Disaster relief
Bill 3 - Farm bill
Bill 4 - Suspend debt ceiling for two years.

OBSERVATION - Quite frankly, this third plan is what should have come out the first time.
This CR fight has exposed republican representatives who are hostile towards Trump and the voter mandate he is riding into DC on. These pre-presidency fights may be short lived as public pressure is maintained and the threat of being primaried loom. Similar to what happened to some of the senate republicans.

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The Georgia Court of Appeals removed Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis from an election subversion case against President-elect Donald Trump.
Willis is expected to appeal against the ruling, which is seen as a major legal victory for Trump.

The ruling reverses the trial judge’s decision to allow Willis to stay on the case after it was revealed she had a romantic relationship with a prosecutor she had hired.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c77jdk4k717o

OBSERVATION - Now it must be decided if the case is to proceed under a new attorney, or to drop the case altogether. Rumblings suggest that finding a replacement attorney will be extremely difficult given how corrupted the current case is. Willis is in serious trouble overall and could be soon facing criminal charges should Georgia get some backbone.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Biden / Harris Watch –

Unconfirmed reports that Kamala Harris just abruptly cancelled her planned trip to California and “raced to the White House,” per reporters

Biden also just returned to DC, after being expected to stay in Delaware until after Christmas

OBSERVATION - This could be in anticipation of a govt shutdown. However, they’ve been vacationing like crazy since the election all the while the world was burning down, so why all the critical attention on a potential shut down - if that is the real reason.

Illegal Immigration –

Influenced by Trump’s threat of imposition of tariffs, Dominic LeBlanc, the Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs in Canada, officially commits $1.3 billion to help secure Canada’s border with the United States.

Their focus will be on fent*nyl, human tra**icking, and crimes that cross our border.

China –

China announces the development of a Mach 7 drone.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraines Air Force reports on the missile and drone attack from last night and this morning.
Shot down:
5/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile
0/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
40/65 Shahed drones
In addition, 20 more Shahed drones were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Missiles that got thru hit near Boryspil Airport as well as the downtown area of Kyiv.

Russian Ministry of defense says strikes in Kyiv is a response to all recent Ukrainian attacks in Russia, including liquidation of chemical protection general and missile strikes at military enterprise in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky. Claiming they’ve targeted SBU command post, Luch design bureau and Patriot battery

Russian losses per 20/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+2200(!!) men
+8 tanks
+24 APVs
+42 artillery systems
+1 AD system

A very bad day for Russian troops, double the daily losses from just earlier this week.

Summary —

The tit for tat exchange of deep strike missile/drone attacks continue. Though Ukraine manages to take out a significant number of missiles, some still manage to get thru.

Trying to pin down what part of the front the significant Russia casualties came from. One of the worst one day totals this year. This also seems to run opposite to the reported numbers of attacks for the period across the front, which were down. No reports of terrain captured by Russia either.

Middle East / N. Africa General -

LIBYA - Libya PM says moving Russia’s Syrian arms to the nation is unacceptable. Dbeibah says foreign forces can’t impose will on Libya

OBSERVATION - Russia has reportedly been transferring their Syrian equipment to Libya to reinforce their bases there. In spite of the PM’s words, Russia still maintains a significant influence over the affairs of the country and is the Syrian bases are lost, Libya would provide Russia the ability to still threaten NATO’s southern flank and operation in the Med.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hostage talks stall

——— GENERAL ——————————-

No progress was made towards the completion of a hostage deal/ceasefire agreement on Thursday, and CIA Director William J. Burns, who was in Doha for the talks, left Qatar after being there for a day, a US official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told The Washington Post on Friday.

“They know that if they don’t reach such an agreement, it will not be a good thing for any of them, including the Israelis,” the member of the diplomatic mission said. “I think this has resulted in a lot of developments. ... The question is whether [or not] they wait for Trump.”

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-834257

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Scattered air strikes on identified Hamas et al groupings.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

More demolition of Hezbollah infrastructure in the occupied S. Lebanon region.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Very busy as Israeli security forces operated throughout there region.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi’s talking tough.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Turkish President: We will continue to corner Israel and force it to act according to the law. More Turkey-Israel under Turkey.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

On the Hama/Hezbollah/Iran front, pretty quiet in many respects. How deterred the Houthi’s are is yet to be seen, however, Israel hit them in a way that the US/Coalition forces, and even Saudi Arabia haven’t.

Israel may be headed towards some sort of confrontation with Turkey in Syria. See Turkey below.

Syrians in areas occupied by the IDF have reportedly been on good terms with the soldiers. Much of this area is occupied by Druze and in general, Druze have been treated well in Israel, so they are seen by the broader community as an asset and friend.

The new rebel govt and Turkey will demand Israel withdraw, but neither has the military clout at this time to enforce their demands and in the cased of the rebel govt, my seek negotiated settlement versus fighting.

Iraq -

Iraqi Foreign Minister: ISIS is expanding its areas of control and reorganizing its ranks using weapons it seized as a result of the collapse of the Syrian army

Syria -

Iraq handed over the soldiers of the Fourth Division, affiliated with Maher al-Assad, to the new Syrian authorities.

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Syria’s largest oil refinery has halted operations after ceasing to receive the crude from Iran that previously made up the vast majority of the country’s input, its general manager told the Financial Times

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SDF chief Mazloum Abdi tells Reuters that if they reach an agreement with Turkey to end hostilities in northern Syria, non-Syrian Kurdish fighters will leave Syria

Turkey –

Turkiye president Erdogan says US, western powers have a responsibility to stop Israel from invading Syrian territories.
NOTE - Erdogan excuses himself for doing far more in N Syria.

***
Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for an arms embargo on Israel on Thursday and seeks to end to all trade with the Jewish state in hopes of isolating it internationally.

During a talk at the D-8 Summit in Cairo, Erdogan said the measures are necessary to punish Israel for its aggression in the Middle East, Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency reported.

“We see Israel’s steps that disregard Syria’s territorial integrity, including the expansion of illegal settlements in the Golan Heights,” he said. “I believe the D-8 must respond more strongly to the lawlessness threatening Syria’s stability and our region.”

“As Islamic countries, we must lead steps that can be taken against Israel,” Erdogan said. “We must work harder together, as D-8 countries, for a just and lasting peace in the region.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/recep-tayyip-erdogan-turkey-israel/2024/12/19/id/1192294/

***
Erdogan declares that Jerusalem belongs to them (Turkey).

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Turkey and Israel and even the US may come into serious conflict this next year.

This comes as Erdogan talks tough about using economic and even military actions. A key friction point may be the Turkish threat to Syrian Kurds, who are generally favorable towards Israel and the US.

A second may be Turkish support of rebel forces taking up the fight against Israel instead of Hezbollah / Iran. Turkey’s pursuit of becoming the new Caliphate of the region, it has willingly put its support into the rebel forces in Syria, in effect establishing them as their own oriented militia group, much like Iran did with Hezbollah.

Turkey has so far stayed away from positioning themselves to directly engage Israel, making the new Syrian puppet govt their potential sword. Turkey’s military are more focused on genocide of Syrian Kurds in the northern and eastern portions of Syria.

Turkey has gained a viable, unrestricted ground attack route to Israel thru the rebel portions of Syria: Aleppo -> Hama -> Homs -> Damascus.

However, until they are satisfied with their actions against the Kurds, movement of this sort is unlikely in the next year.

Tis a very dark day . . . . .

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024

The latest inflation report in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index showed a 2.4% rise in November on an annual basis, just below the 2.5% estimate of economists polled by Reuters. Consumer spending increased in November in another sign of economic resilience.
NOTE. Called Christmas shopping

https://stocks.apple.com/AaU8Uc9SsS6CUBpCARns9WA

POLITICAL FRONT –

The third spending bill has passed the House of Representatives, with Democrat support. The Senate has voted to pass the budget deal only hours after the House averting a shutdown.

OBSERVATION - I’m really ticked off how these vile swamp creatures view this as some sort of a game of coup instead of being concerned about the country. Bottom line is that even though Trump isn’t even president yet, he still got 90% of what he wanted and denied democrats of 1400 pages of pork.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Jagmeet Singh, his coalition ally in Canada, announced that he will submit a motion of no confidence in the government after the House of Commons returns from winter recess on January 27.

OBSERVATION - Trudeau is on the way out after this action. His popularity has plummeted and only remained PM in the last election due to coalition forming games. His conservative opponent is currently experiencing high favorability ratings.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden reportedly set to end his term on vacation (again) in Italy.

No word on what the big excitement was the other day.

Illegal Immigration –

Federal agents raided the Bronx and arrested 22 members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua after following… an ankle monitor.
Yep, the high-tech accessory belonged to a fugitive with 3 prior arrests, because apparently, 3rd time’s the charm.
The gang, tied to drug trafficking, robbery, and human trafficking, has been exploiting NYC’s migrant shelters to expand operations. Some suspects had criminal records in multiple states after entering the U.S. illegally.
As concerns grow about gang activity in NYC, Mayor Adams is pledging to “crack down” on violent offenders.
Sources: Fox News

https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1870142670384861503?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

OBSERVATION - The tempo of targeting TdA will accelerate in the coming year. Along with it may well be violence by TdA in retribution.
Mayor Adams may well have been red pilled due in large part to the persecution by his leftist ‘friends’ when he opened up about the advanced crime from illegals.

China –

China is in the process of setting up its own satellite constellations to challenge Starlink. China saw how critical it became for Ukraine and recognizes application for itself. Costs for China to fill out the network of satellites is expected to be high since China doesn’t have a reusable booster stage, though they are attempting to develop one.

Russia -

Logistics –

OSINT folks have been scrutinizing satellite photography of Russian mothballed tank/armor storage sites to gauge the status of Russian losses. At two of the largest, they note that there are no serviceable tanks/apcs and that what is left looks to be just shells of vehicles throughly picked over for parts. Given the sanctions induced reduction in the production of new tanks/APCs, the loss rate for Russia is soon to force replacements to hit the wall. Many are viewing 2025 as the critical year for Russia to be able to sustain the war effort at its current pace.

Other OSINT analysis of the type of equipment losses now show the predominate tanks model being lost are T62 series tanks. The losses off T54/55 series are on the increase. These are post WW2 thru Cold War vintage and to keep them running is like the reason mothball storage yards have been picked clean.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine conducted its first ground attack without infantry, using only robotic systems, - ISW.
The operation near Liptsi, Kharkiv region, saw the use of dozens of drones equipped with machine guns and mines, and reportedly successfully destroyed Russian positions.

Ukraines Air Force reported on a shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 113 launched, 57 were shot down and 56 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 21/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1860 men
+10 tanks
+18 APVs
+32 artillery pieces

Ukraine drones, under the influence of Russian electronic warfare, crashed into an elite residential complex in Kazan, according to Russian media. The target was likely gun powder plant in Kazan’, according to different reports at least 8 drones reached the city, most crashed into the buildings due to electronic warfare, at least one was shot down
Fires in several residential houses across Kazan, including a 5 story building at Klary Tsetkin street

Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast, near Kupyansk, within Toretsk, and in the Vuhledar direction.

Damage to residential houses in Zaporizhzhia as result of explosive drones attack.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 50 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

Kharkiv Front -

Ukrainian Khartiya unit had conducted fully robotised assault on the Russian positions near Lyptsi of Kharkiv region. Only unmanned ground and aerial combat vehicles used

Summary —

Russian losses returned to their seasonal highs yesterday. Minor territory losses by Ukraine, but they add up.

Russian personnel replacements to the front earlier this year was about 30,000 per month based on losses of about 1000 per day. The past few months, daily losses regularly exceeded 1500 per day and in the past few days have pushed higher. This would result in Russia needing 45,000 to 55,000 per month. Russia may be able to sustain these losses in the short term, indeed, they have been doing so for the past few months. In the long term though, Russia is either going to have to tailor its offensive focus down even more or find ways to increase conscription / volunteers to fill the losses.

As noted above in Russia - logistics, not only is Russia facing a growing shortage of people but key equipment as well. This has already been seen on the front lines with Russia trying to use motorcycles, ATVs, civilian vehicles, etc to get the troops to their jump off points for attacks.

It doesn’t seem that putin is willing to stop the overall broad offensive efforts of the army. So now the kremlin is trying to find ways to incentivize service to boost numbers.

Ukraine is struggling keeping its manning up as well, though actual numbers of losses versus recruiting are held tightly. Relative regular resupply by the West of tanks, etc help replace losses.

2025 seems to be a marathon race by both sides just to get thru another year with Russia facing potentially the greatest hurdle to sustaining combat at current levels.

Europe / NATO General –

Terrorist who attacked the Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany is reportedly a man from Saudi Arabia, born in 1974. At least 5 people were killed, and up to 80 were injured.
Germany in the past refused to extradite the individual to Saudi Arabia on rape charges. He also had no known radicalized associations or other actions.

OBSERVATION - Moslem driving vehicle into a German Christmas market harboring no radical inclinations. . . . . .

Other investigators are suggesting that the terrorist was involved in radical islam but maintained and participated in relative levels of anti islam to maintain a cover. Germany’s insufferable excusing of radical islamists in the nation will likely keep this under wraps.

Middle East / N. Africa General -

LIBYA -
Russia’s plan to maintain presence in the Med and to counter NATO by using Libya still isn’t gaining traction, at least with some Libyan factions.

Libya remains divided, with Turkey-backed forces controlling the northwest, including Tripoli, and Kremlin-backed General Khalifa Haftar holding the northeast. This sets up the same Turkey v Russia scenario that bit Russia in Syria. Fact there was a lot of fighting a few years ago between these elements back when Wagner was at its prime and before Ukraine.

Russian flights to the region have drawn criticism from Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who stated, “Libya is not an arena for the conjunction of international interests,” warning that more weapon transfers threaten peace and security.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Houthi missile penetrates Israeli defenses - strikes a play ground in Tel Aviv

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu states that Israel will not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is completely eliminated.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Scattered air and artillery strikes on holdout locations of Hamas et al forces.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah has had a bad year. Israel destroyed most of its leadership with a brilliant special operations plan. Hezbollah’s missile and rocket attacks on Israel from Lebanon finally resulted in Israel crossing the border to attack Hezbollah’s ground forces and some of its launching sites.

Worse, at the end of the year the head of Sunni Islamic terror group HTS led a force of armed supporters to overrun and occupy most of Syria in less than two weeks. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia with his family and his armed forces fell apart. This meant Hezbollah in Lebanon could no longer receive supplies from Iran, which had for years delivered supplies via a route from Iran, through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Hezbollah is now isolated and facing a very angry Israel by itself. And Israeli airstrikes destroyed most of the former Syrian government weapons storage sites so those weapons are not available to a terrorist-controlled successor Syrian government.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/articles/202412210131.aspx#gsc.tab=0

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

No IAF airstrike targeting potential supplies for Hezbollah over the past few days.

IDF has stabilized its control of the former 1974 buffer zone and does not appear to be expanding it any further.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli security forces continue to conduct operations to arrest terrorism suspects, in some cases with the support of the PA

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

A Houthi ballistic missile appears to have struck Tel Aviv, with emergency services responding to a fire within the city. The impact site is reportedly a playground between several high-rise apartment buildings in central Tel Aviv, with 3 minor injuries all from shrapnel.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

With everything else being relatively stable, the Houthi missile that got thru last night will definitely gain a lot of Israel’s attention. Israel has already stated their next steps will be to take down Houthi leadership, as well as smart targeting of govt assets and military facilities. IMHO, the Houthi’s feel that the distance that separates them from Israel will insulate them from the same levels of destruction seen in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria and that they will fight like the Saudi’s and US. That would be a deadly assumption given that Hamas and Hezbollah had similar thoughts on Israeli response and learned the hard way. Israel may well start a more sustained series of attacks to pound that message home. If the Saudi’s are smart, they would jump on the wagon as well. The US is too close to the presidential transition to get involved more than the current self defense operations.

Other than the Houthi, other fronts in the Israeli - Iran et al conflict appear to be stable and in favor of Israel.

Lebanon -

Low on the news radar screen is the continued simmering of a potential conflict between remnants of Hezbollah and other communities in Lebanon who’ve suffered under their oppressive rule for the past decades.

Saudi Arabia –

The Foreign Ministry expresses the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of the incident that took place in a market in the city of Magdeburg in the Federal Republic of Germany in which a car plowed into crowds, resulting in the death and injury of a number of people. The Kingdom expresses its solidarity with the German people and the families of the victims.

Syria -

Northern Syria: The SDF and SNA continued to clash along the lines of control in Aleppo Province on December 20. The head of the SDF media center reported “fierce clashes” on the Qere Qozaq bridge, which spans the Euphrates River.

Southwest Syria: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to operate in villages in Daraa and Quneitra provinces. Geolocated footage showed the IDF in al Rafeed, Quneitra Governorate, for the first time on December 20.