Moving into a fresh week. Some areas seem quiet, others suggest a storm is about to break out.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
BLM riots against the Penney verdict have fizzled out. There are still some rallies scheduled in NYC but they are not gaining any traction.
Scattered pro-hamas / pro-islam disruptions of Christmas celebrations.
***
The folks at Forward Observer are reporting that a recent revolutionary anarchist blog post argued that protests and direct action demonstrations against fascists and corporations no longer work, and that anarchist should return to assassinating their enemies.
The post argues that continued assassinations of political enemies would send a message to the capitalist class that prominent members are not “untouchable.” The post described the current situation as a “precipice,” as anarchist readers are asked to consider their willingness to commit acts of armed violence if those acts lead to desired change.
OBSERVATION - Cross reference to Terrorism as well. Political assassinations are old school for these radical leftists. The recent murder of the Healthcare CEO may be driving some of the thought combined with the apparent ineffectiveness of trying to put together mass rallies/riots.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
***
See Misc of Note below on potential terror attack surrounding drone flap.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
It’s not shaping up to be a very merry holiday season for some major retailers this year.
U.S. retailers have announced more than 7,100 store closures through the end of November 2024, a 69% jump from the same time last year, according to recent data from research firm CoreSight. That comes as 45 retailers have filed for bankruptcy protection so far this year, compared with 25 retail bankruptcies for all of 2023, the report found.
The surge in store closures comes at a time when consumer spending appears strong, helping to lift the nation’s economic growth. Yet cracks are emerging, with some retailers reporting that inflation-weary shoppers are cutting back or becoming more choosy in searching for sales and deals.
OBSERVATION - The article repeats a common theme - “consumer spending appears strong” - a claim used over the past year to justify claims that bidenomics was ‘working’. Reality is documented in the closures and bankruptcies, showing that spending isn’t ‘strong’. Also repeated is the claim of ‘lifting the nation’s economic growth’. Even the govt figures don’t show that. GDP continues to be anemic and some insist that any ‘growth’ has been due to govt spending, not general consumers.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. faces a severe shortage of ammunition and critical minerals like antimony, essential for modern warfare, exposing vulnerabilities in its defense industrial base.
The U.S. lacks domestic antimony production, relying entirely on foreign suppliers, with China controlling most of the global supply. This dependency has led to supply cuts and price surges, endangering military readiness.
U.S. support for Ukraine has depleted its own ammunition stocks, with current production (30,000 shells/month) falling far short of the 100,000 shells needed by 2025.
Companies like Military Metals Corp. are acquiring antimony projects to address shortages, but the Biden administration’s efforts to secure domestic sources of critical minerals have been slow and insufficient.
The U.S. must invest in domestic mining, streamline regulations, and foster partnerships to secure critical minerals and ensure future military readiness, avoiding over-reliance on adversarial nations.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-12-15-ammo-crisis-national-security-wake-up-call.html
OBSERVATION - Some consider this to be a deliberate weakening of the US military by the left / biden so that the US cannot respond to any military aggressiveness by China, Russia or Iran. Short falls in munitions production not only affects artillery, but rockets/missiles, other bombs, fighter jets, naval vessels, etc.
POLITICAL FRONT –
(FO) The House could release a continuing resolution (CR) today that will extend government funding until March 2025, ahead of the 20 December deadline to prevent a government shutdown. Negotiations over agriculture funding over the weekend held up the planned release of the bill.
Interesting potential developments in the hunter pardon. Serious questions over whether the pardons are restricted to existing charges and convictions and not to those that are not. Thus the plethora of crimes hunter are believed to have committed are still on the table.
OBSERVATION - All indicators apart from from blustering and chest beating on both sides, the CR will pass.
China –
China’s recent exercises in the seas around Taiwan have reportedly caught Taiwan off guard as to their size and speed of development.
North/South Korea –
NK forces supporting Russia’s attacks in the Ukraine are not faring well. See Ukraine below.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
(FO) Russian President Vladimir Putin warned this morning that U.S. plans to deploy missiles to Europe have pushed him to his “red lines,” adding that he may lift restrictions on Russian ballistic missile deployment in response.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reported on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 49 launched, 27 were shot down by regular air defense and 19 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Three more UAVs were still active in Ukrainian airspace.
Russian losses per 16/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1070 men
+12 tanks
+29 AFVs
+23 artillery systems
Reports that Ukraine drones destroyed a big Russian ammo depot in occupied Donetsk, Suspilne reports. The site housed thousands of rounds for BMPs, tanks, anti-tank missiles, mines, grenades, and millions of bullets. Explosions and fire raged all night. A nearby fuel depot was also obliterated.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1868567942314545546?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Special Operation Forces of Armed forces of Ukraine dismissed reports of breakthrough at the state border in Sumy region on 10th December as Russian propaganda and published a video showing repelling an attack in the area.
NOTE - This was a battalion sized assault. Reportedly the Russian commander in the region was replace and this is the first attack showing any kind of ability to organize an attack at a higher level. From the Ukraine videos, the Russian column was stuck on a road and was easily struck.
***
Rumint. Confused North Korean troops opened friendly fire on Kadyrov’s Chechen troops, killing 8 in the Kursk region.
North Korean army units are being replenished after losses in Russia’s Kursk region. On Dec 14–15, near Plekhovo, Vorozhba, and Martinovka, DPRK units suffered heavy losses—at least 30 soldiers killed or wounded. Near Kurilovka, at least three North Korean troops went missing.
Assault groups are now being reinforced with fresh personnel, including from the DPRK’s 94th Special Forces Brigade, to continue offensive operations.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1868568758974910793?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russians close to closing off Ukraine salient near Kurakhivka.
Summary —
Russian drone attacks have dropped down to their near normal levels. Russian casualties are down to summer 24 levels for the third day in a row, and size of attacks are down, though still plentiful.
The saga of the NK forces in the Kursk region are coming out and they are as bad as many have anticipated. In addition to friendly fire losses, observers are noting that they are poorly armed - mostly korean war vintage weapons. They are also trying to duplicate the human wave attacks that China made famous in the Korean war - except they do not have the numbers. The poor performance so far will likely hinder future deployments from NK, even though Russia is in desperate need of forces to advance the offensive as far as possible before any cease fire.
Even with the lowered tempo of Russian attack, Ukraine is still being forced back in some sectors.
Keeping an eye on the sector near Sumy. The attempted Russian assault was at battalion level strength. First time in a while such a sizable force has been mustered to the front. However, the poor training of the tankers and APCs showed that they are still unable to maneuver to exploit any firepower advantage and they continue the almost self destructing method of charging down a road in a column where they can be picked off and destroyed.
Europe / NATO General –
EU Foreign ministers just greenlighted 3 sanctions packages: - the 15th sanctions package on Russia for undermining territorial integrity of Ukraine, including sanctions on China and North Korea. More listings of Belarusian individuals and entities. 1st ever listings for Russian hybrid activities, including Tina Kandelaki and Bordachev of Valdai club
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More airstrikes in Syria.
- Rumors that a hostage deal may be soon
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel OKs annexation of portions of the Golan Heights it has occupied since the Yon Kippur war.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
A Gaza hostage-ceasefire is closer than it has ever been before, a senior Hamas official told the Saudi news outlet Asharq on Monday.
“We are closer than ever to reaching a prisoner exchange deal and a ceasefire, provided that Netanyahu does not obstruct the agreement,” the official reportedly said. (JPost)
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said in a the terror group lost its supply route in Syria with the fall of the Assad regime. During the Assad regime, weapons and other military supplies were brought through Syria into Lebanon, but when Syrian rebels seized the route, the supply chain was cut off. “We also hope that the new ruling party will view Israel as an enemy and refrain from normalizing relations with it. These are the key factors that will shape the nature of the relationship between us and Syria.”
***
Druze-Lebanese politician Wiam Wahhab, an ally of Hezbollah, made a surprising statement last night: “The nation doesn’t want war. If you ask me, let’s move toward peace with Israel. I urge the Shiites to normalize relations and make peace with Israel so we can all live in peace. The resistance axis ended with the assassinations of Soleimani and Nasrallah.”
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
See Syria below on IAF airstrikes
***
IDF ground forces pushed further north in the Hermon Mtn Range area towards Damascus and expanded forces in the former 1974 buffer zone.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The Palestinian Authority is conducting operations in Jenin targeting rival factions like Hamas related elements. This is creating a lot of discontent by some of the locals who see Hamas as a better leader than the PA.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reports of U.S-Coalition airstrikes within the last hour, on Houthi targets in the Hajjah Governorate of Northwestern Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: We warn Israel against annexing the Golan Heights, this is unacceptable
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
IMHO, Syrian rebels keep finding weapons/munition stockpiles that Israel seems to have missed, allowing them to target for destruction. Such is what happened overnight. Video’s of the Tartus strike are stunning in the massive size of secondary explosions.
Uncertain just how much more the IDF will be expanding in Syrian terrain, particularly in the Hermon Range close to Damascus. Sr IDF commanders having a lot of conferences with the local chiefs of towns in the occupied buffer zone to assure them of their safety from Israeli actions - as long as they don’t attack the IDF.
More and more, end game is approaching for both Hamas and Hezbollah. The harsh reality is that if they continue to resist, they will totally be eliminated. Conditions for Hezbollah in Lebanon may be becoming more hostile as local leaders turn on them politically. As Ive said time and again, the arab/moslem world gauges their support based on strength or the perception thereof. Hezbollah is now viewed as weak, and even their leadership admits that help from Iran is not coming any time soon. They are at the point where they could be pushed out of essential control of Lebanon.
Iran is even more seen as being weak following the rebel victory in Syria. This could make them especially dangerous in regards to pushing the development of a nuclear weapon. Threats of Israel and the US coming for their facilities is large on their radar and they may view the nuke as their last line of defense against the west. They may do something irrational with a weapon in order to regain the perception of strength and attempt to deter further perceived aggression against it. See Miscellaneous of Note below on those thoughts.
Iran –
Iranian leadership continues to talk nice to the new rulers of Syria.
Syria -
Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani says new Syrian regime will operate under Sharia Law, morality police will be supervised by clerics and mullahs.
OBSERVATION - Any surprise here? The AQ/ISIS fundamentalist islam underpinnings coming to the forefront.
***
An absolutely monstrous explosion hit Northwestern Syria near Tartus from an Israeli airstrike on a munitions depot. This explosion was so large that it registered as 3.0 earthquake on seismic sensors in the area.
The target of the Israeli strike near Tartus was reported to have been the base of the 23rd Air Defense Brigade as well as surface-to-surface missile warehouses, which is likely what caused several of the large explosions.
Local sources in rural Tartous report sgnificant material damage reported in the villages of Bmalkeh, Al-Bakriyeh, Marseheen, Al-Joubeh, Badriyeh, Al-Wasitat, Beit Al-Khatib, and Hababeh in the countryside of Tartous provinc.
NASA FIRMS indicates significant thermal anomalies detected following Israeli army strikes at a munitions storage site, formerly belonging to the Assad regime
Two large explosions were heard in the city of Deir Ezzor, resulting from an Israeli air raid on the Deir Ezzor military airport.
Additional IAF targets overnight consisted of 12 radar sites, and an air defense system
***
US State Department: US citizens must leave Syria
***
U.S. soldiers arrived in Kobane in northern Syria to take possession of the military bases abandoned by the Russian Army a few days ago.
Misc of Note –
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT - There is enough ‘smoke’ associated with the current drone craziness that there maybe fire of some sort buried therein. Otherwise, what are we being distracted from.
Over the weekend, the noise level for the latest conspiracy concerning the drone epidemic was boiled down to this - drones being sighted around the United States in recent weeks may be searching for a nuclear weapon that has been smuggled into the country.
This is not the first time conspiracy alerts have been raised over concerns of a smuggled nuke. This was big topic back when TM was started after 9/11. This time, some bogus and some legitimate reasons are in play. First the bogus -
Some of the conspiracists are trying to claim that a hostile foreign nation or terror group has gotten their hands on one of the ‘70s suitcase nukes or one of the Ukrainian nukes ‘lost’ when they removed them following the breakup of the Soviet Union. FRs Matt Bracken put the kibosh to a key aspect of this by pointing out that these nukes require a high amount of maintenance as components get damaged from the high radiation over time. A second factor is that the nuclear material (plutonium or uranium) looses its effective purity and soon no longer is effective in initiating a fission reaction when activated.
But that doesn’t rule these old nukes out. The second theory in play is that there are so called ‘dirty’ bombs set to go off out there. The concept is designed to panic the uniformed populace. A dirty bomb is nothing more than a conventional bomb with radioactive material included. Upon the explosion of the bomb, radioactive material is scattered over a limited area, causing it to be closed off until decon’d. Any deaths would be associated with the initial explosion. The radioactivity would be useful in denying access to critical areas or rescue of individuals (think of the Waco truck bomb with radioactive scattered over several square blocks).
This next brings us to the worst case scenario - a real live nuke. The world has a few demonstrated nuclear nations and a number of wannabes. The highest threat on this strategic scale are Russia and China. The next question is which is more willing to devise an asymmetrical nuclear attack like this? Hands down I think the culprit would be China - it has the most to gain. But such an attack would normally trigger nuclear war, if traced back to them, so China would have to be ready to be moving into actions against Taiwan and other western Pacific territories at the same time this nuke is ignited. Don’t see that coming together yet.
The second biggest global concern would be the acquisition of such a device by Iran. They have been beating the drum about getting one for nearly a decade now and technologically has the capability. The severe losses to Israel and their open weakness to having their families struck combined with rumblings of a US strike under Trump may have trigger an all out effort to get the bomb. “Experts” have said Iran has the potential to be nuclear in a little as weeks. What other factors could be present to accelerate the program
1 Iran has for years had representatives in N Korea working with their scientists on the NK bomb
2 Recent agreements with Russia to supply war materials in its fight against Ukraine could include gaining technology for their bomb as well as out right technical help.
Iran needs to have two things happen and there is no evidence that they’ve been successful. First the construction and testing of a triggering device and second actual successful detonation. Modern computers could bridge the gap with sufficient data from a trigger device test - or application of say a Russian or N Korean trigger. This would leave just the actual test which Iran could risk it and use an attack on the US as its “test”.
What about the scenario? The volume of containerized shipping could facilitate the smuggling of a device plausible. Even some well placed money in inspectors hands could further the efforts. The it is just a matter of moving the container to the desired location and linking up with technicians for final adjustments and setting the timer. We have plenty of potential Iranian agents here due to the open border of the past 4 years.
A New York / New Jersey target would be greatly symbolic just like the Twin Towers were on 9/11. A population concentration that would result in high casualties and prolonged issues due to fallout. Proximity to shipping ports also a point from above.
If the heart and core of the current drone flap is a search for a nuclear device of some sort, those efforts are now very buried by the tsunami of copycat drones, bogus / fake reports and the like. Until one of these drones are brought down and analyzed, this is much speculation.
One last item under this theory, it could account for clearly standard aircraft flying unusual patterns and locations. Drones are still relatively new and much that has been known about the nation’s nuclear detection efforts have been based on standard, manned airframes.
Tons of speculation, not enough to connect any dots but something to think about.
That would also explain Mayorkas' creepy comment about some sightings are "just airplanes". One of his ways of lying by slipping in some 'too cute by half' truths. Also, Iran doesn't have to 'have the bomb' to spread dirty bombs (or pounds of radioactive material) around our major cities. And what could that accomplish? Could provide cover for China to move on Taiwan... But that's a stretch. Radioactive material can be identified to the country that processed it so Iran's out - and we're back to old nukes being broken into components to spread around cities? Was hoping Trump would touch on some of this...
Thanks.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Chrystia Freeland, WEF insider and Trudeau’s right hand, has resigned from his cabinet, sparking political chaos in Ottawa. Once united in pushing globalist agendas, Freeland’s dramatic departure exposes deep cracks in Trudeau’s government.
She’s walking away after clashing with Trudeau over economic strategy—just hours before delivering a major fiscal update! Could this signal the beginning of Trudeau’s downfall?
The stakes couldn’t be higher.
Freeland’s resignation is more than just a political shakeup—it’s a seismic shift in Canada’s leadership, with global implications.
https://x.com/jimfergusonuk/status/1868679655806341364?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Canada has been one of the test beds for implementation of WEF goals. Over the course of his efforts, Trudeau has destroyed his popularity ratings with the exception of the radical left. Some of this latest fallout may be due to Trump’s threat of tariffs against Canada.
Freeland was also a key player in the truckers strike against Canada a few years ago, cackling over how she could (and did) freeze their bank accounts.
Now there is a lot of rumors that Trudeau may resign. His ratings are in the dump and the parliamentary chaos may be enough to send him over the edge.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
***
The Air Marshal National Council represents the federal law enforcement officers whose job it is to protect planes from terrorist attacks and other criminal activity in our nation’s airways.
They are warning that a terrorist attack may be imminent, and the TSA is not doing enough to help them thwart it.
OBSERVATION - Disturbing but not surprising. We’ve all seen the reports that illegals pass thru TSA without a hitch, even using criminal summons as identification. Literally thousands of jihadis can enter our planes without vetting, leaving them wide open for a terrorist incident.
***
A 15 (17?) -year-old student opened fire inside a study hall at a small Christian school in Wisconsin, killing a teacher and teenager and prompting a swarm of police officers responding to a second grader’s 911 call.
The girl also wounded six others in Monday’s shooting at Abundant Life Christian School, including two students who were in critical condition, Madison Police Chief Shon Barnes said. A teacher and three students were taken to a hospital with less serious injuries, and two of them were later released.
In a follow-up briefing later on Monday, Chief Barnes replaced the words “male or female” with “gender.”
And, instead of reiterating that he didn’t “know” whether the suspect was male or female, he said that his office was “not releasing” any details about the suspect’s sexual status.
Subsequently, the Associated Press reported that the suspect “was a 17-year-old female student,“ according to an unnamed law enforcement officer - which does nothing to clarify whether the suspect was a biological male or female, given the AP’s embrace of transgender ideology and terminology.
OBSERVATION - Much discussion over whether the ‘girl’ was actually a girl or a transexual male. If the latter, then the last half dozen school / mass casualty episodes have been by individuals in the transgender community. In this case, another Christian based school was singled out as well.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
Serious rumblings that the govt is about to issue updated jobs data for 2Q 2024 - and its going to be ugly. Some are forecasting that the jobs reportedly “created” in the second quarter, were actually fake, there were no net jobs created at all, and in fact, the US may have lost jobs in Q2. This is based on initial evaluation of data released Friday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Final word on jobs revisions expected out soon.
Philly Fed report -
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/early-benchmark-revisions
OBSERVATION - A significant downward revision as some are indicating follows right along with the overestimation by nearly 1 million for 2023. Fundamentally, the Fed lied to us in an effort to keep up the facade of a good biden economy going into the elections.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
On December 15, the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) made a southbound transit through the Suez Canal and into CENTCOM’s control.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan refuses to dismiss charges due to presidential immunity.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Rumors from a NRC insider indicates that biden has slipped quickly to vegetable mode and may not last another year.
Illegal Immigration –
A police chief in a small North Dakota city says he and his officers were abandoned by the feds and left to fend for themselves when suspected Tren de Aragua members showed up in town.
North Dakota is the latest state to report that the brutal Venezuelan migrant gang is operating there after alleged member Henry Theis, 25, was busted last month for hacking and ripping off ATMs in West Fargo to the tune of $100,000, according to authorities.
And he’s not the only suspected TdA member to now have been identified in the city of 40,000.
https://nypost.com/2024/12/15/us-news/cops-in-north-dakota-beg-for-feds-help-over-tren-de-aragua/
RELATED - Tren de Aragua now operating in Utah.
OBSERVATION - The count is now up to 19 states penetrated by TdA - and growing in rural areas! In bigger cities they thrive because they can burrow into the background. In rural states they are finding that police/sheriffs lack resources and man power to effectively confront the challenge and that smaller elements of TdA can operate effectively.
North/South Korea –
US Treasury Department website announces new sanctions package related to North Korea and Russia
***
Footage from Russian channels indicates over 100 wounded North Korean soldiers are being treated at the Emergency Clinical Hospital on Pirogov Street in Kursk. A separate floor and special meals have been allocated for them.
Russia -
*****
Russia’s Permanent UN Representative Vasily Nebenzya said that Russia does not accept any scenarios for freezing the war, and Moscow considers Zelensky’s peace initiatives an attempt to buy time to intensify the fight against Russia. He added that Russia is ready to speak with those who ‘accept reality’.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Serial production of “Oreshnik” must be established in the near future, “and this will certainly be done” - Putin
(ISW). Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued fixation on the Russian “Oreshnik” ballistic missile and Russia’s non-nuclear deterrents suggests that the Kremlin may be searching for off-ramps from its continued nuclear saber-rattling narrative.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian losses per 17/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1600 men
+4 tanks
+15 AFVs
+8 artillery pieces
Ukraine’s AIr Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight and early morning. Out of 31 launched, 20 were shot down. Another 10 were supressed by electronic warfare. One Shahed remains active
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
In the Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 68 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces have closed off and captured a Ukrainian held salient near Kurakhivka.
Russian Territory –
24 hours after Ukraine filed international charges against Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the Commander of the Russian Armed Force’s Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defence Unit, for ordering the use of chemical weapons during the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, he was killed by a bomb fixed to a scooter. Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed credit for the attack. He is reported to be one of the most Senior Russian Officers killed during the War.
One of his Deputies was also killed.
Summary —
Uptick in Russian losses equate in uptick in fighting.
N Korean losses are growing - See N/S Korea above. Wounded in the hundreds, killed likely in the dozens. This is equating to a disaster for both Russia and NK. Becomes questionable if NK is going to send more troops to be cannon fodder.
Europe / NATO General –
German Chancellor Scholz loses parliamentary confidence vote, paving the way for snap elections in February.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel expands occupation in Syria
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu made a unscheduled trip to Crete. Purpose and agenda are unknown.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Defense Minister Israel Katz says Israel will continue to rule over Gaza militarily after the war.
“Once we defeat Hamas’s military power and ruling power in Gaza, Israel will control security in Gaza with full freedom to act, just as in Judea and Samaria,” he says, in reference to the West Bank.
“We will not allow any terrorist activity against Israeli communities and citizens from Gaza. We will not allow a return to the pre-October 7 reality.”
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF took out some Hezbollah activities in violation of the ceasefire
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
See Syria below
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
A civil war of sorts continues to grow in Judea and Samaria as Abbas’ PA and armed terrorists continue to fight as the PA begins its campaign for new leadership of the region, following a delay due to the US elections.
Abbas wants to prove Trump he’s the right candidate to take control over Gaza and receive more aid from the US
https://x.com/mossadil/status/1868906809056280899?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A ballistic missile (Houthi’s called it a ‘hypersonic’ missile) launched at Israel from Yemen was successfully intercepted by air defenses, the military says.
The IDF says the missile was shot down before crossing the county’s borders
Israeli Broadcasting Authority, citing an official: We are considering carrying out a strike in Yemen following the missile that was launched today towards central Israel
Airstrikes pounded Sana’a, the capital of Yemen. Conflicting reports of who is responsible, with various sources saying Israel and others saying the USA.
Some preliminary reports are suggesting that the head of military intelligence and second in command of the Houthis, Abu Ali al-Hakim, was one of the targets of the attack.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel expand control of Syrian territory east of the Golan. Appears to be firming up support for Druze communities and their call for protection. Druze in Israel are afforded full rights and I think that they are confident in Israel looking out for their best interest, especially in view of Israel’s demolition of Hezbollah as promised to a Druze community where a dozen children were killed by a Hezbollah rocket earlier this year.
Hamas appears to be accepting of a continued Israeli presence in Gaza as a ceasefire and hostage release deal is being worked out.
Hezbollah has remained subdued in Lebanon. There appears to be no evidence that they have been able to receive much in the way of arms and munitions from Syrian bases they and Iran once ran.
Watching to see if Israel targets Islamic Resistance elements in Iraq. Same too for major strike against the Houthi.
Further action against Iran is still in the RUMINT stage. Its going to happen, the key issue is timing. Hit now before biden leaves or wait until Trump is in charge and all the geopolitical ramifications therein.
Iran –
Iran is facing severe fuel shortages due to a surge in demand caused by freezing weather, outdated infrastructure, and the impact of international sanctions. In response, authorities have extended school closures, shut down cities, and suspended power plant operations to manage the crisis. The shortages have led to widespread disruptions across the country, with no immediate solutions in sight. - FT
https://x.com/osint613/status/1868684660584186089?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - This is what happens when you spend billions on arming and supporting terror groups and ignore your citizens. This is another point of friction that may generate new civil uprisings against the mullahs.
Iraq -
Rumint. Israel is preparing for a very large attack on the Iranian proxy in Iraq. All pro-Iranian militia leaders are now hiding under the ground.
Syria -
Former Leader of Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and now Leader of the Syrian Transitional Government, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, who currently leads the new administration in parts of Syria, has declared that Syrian territory will not be used for attacks against Israel. This follows Israel’s decision to expand settlements in the Golan Heights and ongoing strikes on Syrian targets. al-Jolani also reaffirmed his commitment to the 1974 Syria-Israel Agreement, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts amid regional tensions.
***
Israeli troops have been operating in several Syrian villages beyond the buffer zone in southern Syria in the past day, according to local media .The Daraa 24 outlet yesterday reported that Israeli army soldiers entered the village of Ma’ariya, located a few hundred meters east of the buffer zone in the southern Golan Heights, and questioned locals. The outlet says that today, Israeli army tanks entered the town of Saidah, also located on the edge of the buffer zone. The Israeli army has said that its deployment to the buffer zone and strategic positions in the area is a defensive and temporary measure amid the situation in Syria, and it would remain there until it clears up.
These appear to be Druze villages that have called for Israel to protect them. The Druze minority has historically faced forced conversion to Islam at the hands of HTS, which now controls Syria.
Lebanese reports that the IDF has taken control of the Al Wahda Dam, which controls the sources of the Yarmouk river in Syria.
***
(ISW). HTS continues to consolidate security control over disparate armed groups in Syria.
Former regime soldiers in coastal areas of Syria are reportedly giving up their arms to HTS-led authorities as part of a settlement process.
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Al-Arabiya reports that the remaining Russian Forces in Syria, located at the Naval Base in Tartus and Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia, are expected to depart in the coming days. Russian forces scattered across Syria are reported to be continuing to head towards Latakia and Tartis for extraction.
Reports continue of Russia efforts to try to resecure use of Tartis and Latakia. In the interim, reports also indicate that efforts to secure facilities in Libya are on going.
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US airstrikes vs ISIS in Syria - targeted camps, operatives Monday. Initial assessment - 12 ISIS fighters killed, no civilian casualties, per PentagonPresSec MajGen Par Ryder
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Israeli warplanes have returned over the capital, Damascus, with air raids in the vicinity of the Sayyida Zeinab area.
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The Syrian Transport Ministry has announced the reopening of Syrian Airspace to International Commercial Flights, with work at Damascus International Airport for its opening on Wednesday now 90% Complete.
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The Turkish army removed the separation wall between Ayn Al Arab/Kobane and Turkiye
The U.S. fears Türkiye’s military buildup near the Syrian border signals an imminent incursion into PKK/YPG rebel group held Ayn al-Arab.
PKK/YPG/PYD officials urged President-elect Trump to pressure Turkish President Erdogan.
JORDAN -
Growing concerns the revolution that hit Syria may spill over into Jordan.
Turkey –
The United States is increasingly alarmed that Turkey and its militia allies are preparing for a large-scale military incursion into Syrian territory controlled by US-backed Kurdish forces, according to an exclusive Wall Street Journal report on Tuesday, citing US officials.
The officials cited a significant Turkish military buildup near Kobani, a Kurdish-majority city on the Syria-Turkey border, sparking fears of imminent conflict.
According to US officials cited in the report, the buildup resembled Turkish movements seen ahead of its 2019 invasion of northeast Syria. One US official, speaking to the WSJ, warned that “a cross-border operation could be imminent.”
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-833777
Misc of Note –
The drone wars are not over yet.
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has confirmed that radioactive material was lost in transit earlier this month, heightening fears about public safety and sparking theories about mysterious drone activity in New Jersey.
Officer Lew, a prominent political commentator, highlighted the NRC’s event report during a review of regulatory alerts.
“While looking at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Alerts. I can confirm that there is radioactive material that has gone missing on Dec 2nd, 2024 out of New Jersey. This might be the reason for the drones… just speculation at this point,” he wrote.
According to the NRC’s report, the radioactive source, while classified as “Less than IAEA Category 3,” still poses potential risks if mishandled or exposed for prolonged periods.
Definitions from the NRC for the level of material lost -
Category 3 sources, if not safely or securely managed, could cause permanent injury to a person who handled them or was otherwise in contact with them for hours. It could possibly—although it is unlikely to—be fatal to be close to this amount of unshielded radioactive material for a period of days to weeks. These sources are typically used in fixed industrial gauges such as level gauges, dredger gauges, conveyor gauges, spinning pipe gauges, and well-logging gauges.
Category 4 sources, if not safely managed or securely protected, could possibly cause temporary injury to someone who handled them or was otherwise in contact with or close to them for a period of many weeks, though this is unlikely. It is very unlikely anyone would be permanently injured by this amount of radioactive material. These sources are typically used in fixed or portable gauges, static eliminators, or low-dose brachytherapy.
https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/basic-ref/glossary/category-of-radioactive-sources.html
OBSERVATION - As I noted yesterday, the search for nuclear material was one potential cause for the sudden increase in unusual air/drone traffic. Is this the cause and is the govt being straight about it?
The categories only note lethality. Normal small quantities of these radioactive substances are generally not sufficient for a dirty bomb. The next question then becomes how MUCH of this material was stolen. If a lot was stolen, then the utility for a dirty bomb rises.
The container for the item was found busted up and opened upon arrival in New Jersey - not a good thing. This means it was a deliberate and targeted action. This NRC announcement creates more questions than answers.