Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
More from Amir.
Interesting timing on Iran’s part. I don’t know what a NOTAM is.
“Iran: The Iranian authorities issued a NOTAM valid from November 4, 2024 at 02:30 to November 6, 2024 at 18:30 .
I guess someone wants to attack Israel during the Election Day in America!”
It’s a very opportune time
Really all of Tuesday and likely Monday night too IMHO
All the way through Wednesday
Re: Trump’s remarks about Liz Cheney
https://youtu.be/6VHP68I2j2w?feature=shared
Above is the link to that part of the interview.
It’s crystal clear the context, Trump was saying that Liz is a war hawk, and how would she like it if she herself was on the front lines being shot at by the enemy.
Countdown going big - T-2 days out from election day.
Take a deep breath, Tuesday will be intense.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Besides ‘degrowth’ and ‘net zero,’ one other dangerous buzz phrase being bandied about by proponents of the Great Reset is “nature-positive food systems.” The stated goal of moving to new food systems is to reduce nitrogen emissions, livestock production, and meat consumption. This is to be achieved by consuming plant-based products, lab-grown foods, and insects (as a source of protein). The moot question, however, is whether such a change is at all necessary?
The U.N., the World Economic Forum (WEF), the Rockefeller Foundation, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and other NGOs would have us believe so. These institutions are controlled by the global elite, who aim to create monopolistic markets for themselves and enslave people, turning them first into captive consumers without choice, and eventually, without free will. So, the U.N. and its co-conspirators have manufactured a food crisis, and by linking it to their other fabrication — an exaggerated climate crisis — they are using it to reset the world’s food system.
Their plan to “transition to net zero, nature-positive food systems by 2030” translates into a war on traditional farmers. Unable to absorb the added costs of new regulations and controls, small, independent producers are being squeezed out of farming. Their place is being taken by multinational agribusinesses. Unchecked, these multinationals will dominate farming in a decade or two.
In the U.S., similarly, over 30% of territory will become subject to administrative state control under Executive Order 14008, signed by President Joe Biden in 2021. The order is part of a global 30x30 plan to permanently keep 30% of the world’s land and oceans pristine by prohibiting human activity. It’s to be achieved by 2030, hence “30 by 30.” Without any plausible data that such preservation would reverse alleged “climate change,” this is more about control, and amounts to nothing but a massive land grab.
OBSERVATIONS - More at link above. The axiom “he who controls the food controls the people” is clearly at play. The attacks on food productions (and some processing) are coming from multiple fronts in growing ways. We may well see serious food shortages and even higher prices in spite of trump because of the momentum of the policies biden’s regime and other WEF dominated countries have put into place.
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Oct 30, 2024
The governor of Washington state on Friday said he was activating some members of the National Guard to be on stand-by after information and concerns regarding potential violence related to the 2024 election.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. Central Command has confirmed that Two B-52H Long-Range Strategic Bombers from the 5th Bomb Wing stationed at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota, have arrived at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. After being ordered to Region only roughly 24 hours ago.
NOTE - It was earlier reported that these bombers would be stationed in Diego Garcia.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
(Brownstone Institute) — The House report on HHS COVID propaganda is devastating. The Biden administration spent almost $1 billion to push falsehoods about COVID vaccines, boosters, and masks on the American people. If a pharmaceutical company had run the campaign, it would have been fined out of existence.
HHS engaged a PR firm, the Fors Marsh Group (FMG), for the propaganda campaign. The main goal was to increase COVID vax uptake. The strategy: 1. Exaggerate COVID mortality risk 2. Downplay the fact that there was no good evidence that the COVID vax stops transmission.
OBSERVATION - Just the tip of the iceberg. With all the screams of the left of ‘misinformation’ the BIGGEST source of misinformation was the govt itself. Now project to today, and claims that the govt is the final arbiter of ‘true’ news.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
You know things aren’t looking good when Snopes fails to back your latest allegation
“The fact-checking organization Snopes has corrected the record for several news outlets and the Kamala Harris campaign, which spread the false claim that Trump called for Liz Cheney’s “execution.” Snopes determined that “Trump didn’t threaten to have Liz Cheney shot.”
Snopes wrote as its headline on the fact-check, “Despite violent rhetoric, Trump didn’t threaten to have Liz Cheney shot,” and called out several examples of pundits saying that the GOP nominee was making a death threat towards Cheney during a Thursday evening event with Tucker Carlson earlier this week in Arizona.”
***
Reps. Brian Mast (R-Fla), Bill Huizenga (R-Mich), and Mike Waltz (R-Fla) have sent a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, expressing “grave concern” over what they describe as “deficiencies in the Defense Department’s protocols” for military absentee voting. The letter highlighted the fact that the stockpile of absentee ballots has reportedly been “depleted and not replenished,” likely having a negative impact upon service members’ ability to vote.
OBSERVATION - Having been stationed overseas, I find this neglect reprehensible and a total case of disrespect to the military who relies on state side support for the execution of our rights - all the while being placed in harms way for those nice warm bureaucrats who failed.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-50s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight Ukraine shot down:
1/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
93/96 Shahed drones (66 regular, 27 EW)
Another drone flew back to Belarus.
Kyiv region was the primary target.
Reports that last month Ukraine successfully took out a high number of key Russian radar systems. So many that now Russian pilots are becoming reluctant to even glide bomb Ukraine targets due to lack of ADA protection from Ukraine jets.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
Grind continues along the front line as Ukraine grudgingly gives up terrain and Russia continues with high losses.
Clearly it appears that Russia has made the turn to increase its deep game with drones. Counter drone defenses still lagging behind the capability to deal with large numbers of drones. Cheap, they eat up a lot of expensive defensive munitions.
Continued attrition of expensive and limited Russia ADA assets is starting to really hurt. As noted above, this may result in a decrease in glide bomb attacks against Ukraine.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldovans are going to the polls in the second round run-off of a presidential election seen as a choice between a European future or a return to Russian influence.
Pro-European President Maia Sandu faces Alexandr Stoianoglo, a man she fired as chief prosecutor, who has promised to balance foreign policy between the West and Russia and has the backing of the pro-Russian Party of Socialists.
Sandu and Moldova’s authorities have warned that a fugitive oligarch now based in Russia is trying to buy the election for Moscow.
The Kremlin has denied interfering in the vote, much as it did during last weekend’s disputed elections in Georgia, whose president described the vote as a “Russian special operation”.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq6lyzj9dddo
OBSERVATION - Once again, part of a larger Russia political plot to destabilize western leaning govts that are also still partially within Russia’s sphere of influence after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Europe / NATO General –
GEORGIA - Not much big news lately, buried by US election and other international news.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- 51 hostages estimated to still be alive.
- Israel captured Imad Amhaz, a senior Hezbollah naval commander, in a carefully planned operation.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Currently, Hamas is holding 51 Israeli hostages alive, according to Israeli analysts. The remaining Israeli hostages are dead, although it has not been officially announced that they are all dead, as reported this morning by Israel Hayom.
The data on which Netanyahu relied was compiled based on information accumulated through various channels since October 7, some of which are public and some are based in military intelligence. This means that 50 of the Israeli hostages held in Gaza are dead, although so far only 37 hostages have been officially declared dead with their bodies held by Hamas.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/398533
***
The Biden Administration has issued an ultimatum to Israel that if the humanitarian situation in Gaza doesn’t improve by November 13th, it will cut military aid.
The warning follows a letter by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to their Israeli counterparts on October 13th.
The letter stated that if there were no amelioration of the condition of Gazan civilians in 30 days, there would likely be limitations on the delivery of weapons and supplies to Israel.
The U.S. issued these warnings despite evidence that over half of the humanitarian aid delivered to the Gaza Strip is stolen by Hamas terrorists, and the looting of supplies weakens Gazan civilians and strengthens Hamas.
***
RUMINT - Reports that military movements of missile launchers were observed in 68 locations across Iran.
***
US message reported sent to Islamic Republic of Iran: “If you strike again, we will not be able to restrain the Israelis as we have done in the past.”
***
Israeli forces have captured Imad Amhaz, a senior Hezbollah naval commander, in a carefully planned operation. Israeli intelligence had been monitoring Amhaz’s movements, waiting for the right moment to act. The operation went smoothly without any resistance. Initially, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) did not plan to announce the capture. However, after Lebanese media reported the news, the military confirmed it. Security officials describe Amhaz as a key figure in Hezbollah’s secretive naval operations. His capture is seen as a significant intelligence success.
***
Israel has issued a warning to the Iraqi government, if drone attacks from Iraq persist, or if Iran initiates any assault from within Iraqi borders, the IDF will respond with strikes on targets in Iraq
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Eleven Israelis were wounded by a Hezbollah rocket impact in the central town of Tira on Saturday, as the terror group shot some 160 rockets and ten drones at Israel over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the IDF eliminated four senior Hezbollah commanders through airstrikes.
Israeli media reported that of the 160 rockets launched overall, 130 crossed into Israeli territory, where most were either intercepted by IDF air defenses or fell in open areas. Seven of the ten drones were shot down.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israeli intel continues to win its component of the war and the capture of Imad Amhaz, a senior Hezbollah naval commander, is the latest. Otherwise the war against Hezbollah continues to move forward methodically both on the ground in the south and via the bombing campaign throughout the rest of the country.
Note - 160 rockets is about as big as Hezbollah is able to do. Remember, pre-war intel concerns not only by Israel but the US as well projected Hezbollah would saturate Israeli ADA with nearly 1000 per day. This goes to show how successful Israel has been in decimating the rocket store piles and launch sites.
Gaza is facing a deadline restated by the biden regime over the allowance of ‘aid’ to gaza. The regime cannot be blind to the fact that at least half of aid going into gaza ends up being stolen by residual Hamas elements and used for its soldiers as well as being sold on the black markets to maintain an income source.
Until the US acts on its threats, Israel continues to eliminate Hamas and affiliated terror groups.
Knee jerks on the Iranian threat to hit Israel are on the rise. Most recent was the rumor of a Saturday strike - didn’t happen. Now rumors of movements of Iranian missiles to launch areas - in the thousands. A NOTAM issued yesterday for a training area covering the US election day. All are head games, but there must be enough corresponding information from US intel assets that has broken thru the Iran-favoring biden administration to move even more assets to the region.
Probably the most chilling report is that the US will be unable to restrain Israel’s response should Iran attack. Yep, with the election past, Israel will have very little to lose no matter what the results of the election. US assets still have a defensive posture but assets like B52s and recent strike by B2s are a warning not to touch US bases in the region. However, the threat is only as good as the willingness to use it, and I’m skeptical on the US’s willingness.
Iran –
Continued rhetoric that Iran will soon strike Israel. A rumored Saturday strike did not pan out, now rumored to be planned for on election day here in the US.
Iraq -
Israel warns Iraq that it will hit Iraqi targets should it allow Iran and its proxies to continue to launch attacks against Israel.
Starvation and hunger are effective totalitarian tools. Add this stupidity to Harris' plan to go after the food industry for 'price gouging' and you've got the perfect storm for starvation politics. Also, the people Harris would help with this system? The Chinese who are working hard to take over food processing plants in the US.
Thanks
Countdown going big - T-1 days out from election day.
FIGHT . . . . . FIGHT. . . . . FIGHT
Two important events that affect us.
1. Tomorrow’s election and any rioting
2. Impending Iranian missile attack on Israel likely to happen some time after the election.
Folks, this ride doesn’t end tomorrow, it is only just beginning to enter a whole new level.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Discussions across the inter webs of the WEF et al working behind the scenes in 2025 to help facilitate some kind of civil war in the US in order to ties us down and allow the start of the ‘great reset’ and global control while we are internally occupied.
Can’t confirm, but many of their recent statements allude to the US and the removal of freedoms which could only happen under a civil war/martial law scenario.
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Oct 30, 2024
IMHO, some initial rioting in Antifa strongholds - major urban centers - will break out tomorrow night in scattered areas as the returns come in.
Worst case scenario develops if the win is big for trump. On Wednesday, the MSM and democrat mouthpieces will be out calling for more ‘resistance’ as well as efforts to prevent trump from being certified. This will result in an explosion of violence from the already prepped for violence against the ‘nazi’s’ and ‘facist’ threat to the nation. Could see Karens and Kens violently assaulting republican homes and persons in an unorganized, spontaneous manner. Some of that is already occurring.
I would also expect the lawfare aspect to rear its ugly head with potential attempts to jail trump.
Worst case scenario grows as Antifa/democrat elements push harder into the suburbs and this time may well face lethal defense action by residents.
Blue states may take independent actions against Trump and supporters/republican party.
How far this will go depends on what ever restraint the DNC has to prevent all out civil war and the destruction of the country. Absent cooler heads, things may well get ugly.
Best case results are that such riots burn themselves out quickly. But that is not certain.
I hate to be such a doomer, but then I’ve posted what the left is saying they will do and I’m taking them at their word.
***
Public Safety Alert: Masked Antifa Protest/Riot is planned for Election Day. Do not come to Downtown Portland OR on the evening of November 5th.
***
The District of Columbia is preparing for mass riots after the announcement of the results of the presidential election.
An additional security cordon, has been placed around the White House and the Capitol. Also a second layer of fencing has been erected around the White House. This is in addition to the deadly spikes added the main fence.
Other federal government buildings are also being fenced-off or boarded up.
***
Democratic Governor, Jay Inslee, has activated the National Guard to prepare for potential “election-related violence,” with the order extending beyond the November 5th election to address any civil unrest as needed.
Oregon, Nevada, and reportedly New Mexico have also put their National Guard on Stand-by.
These are traditionally “Blue” states.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Sec Def ordered deployment of additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron, tanker aircraft and several B-52 long-range strike bombers to MidEast. These forces will begin to arrive in coming months as the USS Lincoln Carrier Strike Group prepares to depart.
BARF21 & BARF22 (B-52) departed Minot AFB, ND last night for Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar to join LIVID11 & LIVID12 that arrived yesterday making it a total of 4 B-52s in the region.
According to U.S. Officials that spoke to Air & Space Forces Magazine; a total of six B-52H bombers as well as a squadron of F-15E Strike Eagles, and several aerial-refueling tankers have been ordered and will soon arrive in the Middle East.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1853266500838129750?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
After a commissioner for the Federal Communications Commission accused Saturday Night Live of violating federal rules following a surprise appearance from Vice President Kamala Harris, NBC offered former President Donald Trump‘s campaign free commercial time on the network.
Since Harris appeared on SNL for 90 seconds, NBC must offer an equal amount of time to Trump’s campaign to be in accordance with the FCC’s Equal Time rule. That rule also includes a statute that allows the FCC to revoke a broadcaster’s license “for willful or repeated failure” to offer the same amount of airtime to candidates campaigning for the same office.
Trump’s 90 seconds were reportedly aired during a NASCAR race.
***
Progressive House members Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) showed up to boost Harris. But Dearborn’s Democrat congressional representative Rashida Tlaib refused to concur on an endorsement, instead urgings UAW members to focus on down-ballot races
Tlaib’s abstention is worse than it looks. Earlier in the day, Tlaib accused Trump of being “a proud Islamophobe + a serial liar who doesn’t stand for peace.” But then she also accused the “Biden admin” of giving “unconditional support for genocide” in the same tweet.
***
Take a deep breath, because the only poll that matters is tomorrows voting. With that said, Atlas Intel, who produced the most accurate polls in 2020, has come out with their last poll that shows trump winning all battleground states and leading nationally that would result in a Electoral College victory of 312-226.
OBSERVATION - I would caveat the above noting that the 2020 polls did not factor in the democrat cheating during the late night and early morning hours. So this firm may not be as accurate on that basis. Bottom line - get our there and vote.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The Biden-Harris government’s Department of Agriculture is quietly reclassifying numerous property developers and other companies in what appears to be an effort to work around restrictions on Chinese land ownership near U.S. military bases and installations. The move comes despite continued warnings from the U.S. intelligence community and other agencies in the Biden-Harris government that China poses an increasing national security risk and is actively opposing U.S. interests through domestic and foreign counter-intelligence actions.At the center of the Department of Agriculture controversy is the recent change in designation for Walton Global, a property developer that has been considered one of the top Chinese-controlled U.S. land owners for years. The company has expanded its footprint in China since 2018 and was—until recently—listed by the U.S. government as one of the five top Chinese owners of U.S. agricultural land.
However, in September, Walton Global—after an extensive lobbying campaign—convinced the Department of Agriculture to reclassify much of its U.S. landholdings as not being Chinese-owned. The decision comes even though Walton owns at least 14 properties with some degree of Chinese investment, all within 15 miles of a U.S. military base or installation. Concerningly, the company has even touted its proximity to American military sites in advertising campaigns aimed at Chinese investors.
OBSERVATIONS - The Dept of Agriculture’s actions are treasonous. This on top of already high concerns over covert Chinese purchases of property.
Russia -
*****
(Zero Hedge)—Days after Russia launched a massive readiness drill of their nuclear forces, former Russian President and current deputy chairman of the country’s Security Counsel Dmitry Medvedev says that the outcome of the US election doesn’t matter, as both candidates believe “Russia must be defeated,” and that if Donald Trump is elected and tries to intervene, he may be assassinated.
Medvedev made the comments to his nearly 1.4 million followers on Telegram.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 80 Shahed drones of which 77 were shot down. 50 by regular air defense and 27 by electronic warfare.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
Strategically, Ukraine is rushing to shore up European allies in the event of a trump reelection. This may force some sort of ceasefire / peace talks. Russian has already stated they will not relinquish any captured territory and threatens nuclear war otherwise.
Russia is striving harder along the Donbas front to gain more terrain before the weather changes to mud. They have scrapped tank and armored forces together to charge Ukrainian positions with some local success, but also some devastating losses. Equipment is harder to replace than people and soon they may be forced by either no armor or mud conditions to resume leg infantry heavy meat attacks.
Russia also maintaining a high Shahed drone effort. Ukraine doing a good job in defense but locally those defenses are being overwhelmed and some manage to get thru to their targets.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Despite reported Russian interference, pro-EU Moldovan President Maia Sandu has won reelection as president of Moldova. Race was marred by accusations of heavy Russian interference and money infusions to her opponent.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Rumored Iranian preparations for another missile launch
- Deployment of additional US military assets in the region to deter Iran from expanding their attacks.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Continued pressure on remnant Hamas and other terror elements.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF has completely leveled the Hezbollah stronghold of Meiss El Jabal, leaving almost the entire village entirely erased.
NOTE - Hezbollah constructed extensive bunker facilities beneath these villages with entrances/exits tied to overlying village buildings. The process of destroying these bunkers also destroys overlying buildings. Only one area of the Lebanese border has not had their villages destroyed. This area the people stood up to Hezbollah and refused to allow them to militarize their towns.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Kataib Sarkha al-Quds, an Iranian-backed paramilitary group in Iraq, has issued a threat against both Israel and the United States; claiming that if they launch attacks against the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, then they will respond with missile and drone strikes on their bases across the region.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
An almost routine 24 hours on the ground. Hamas and Hezbollah continue to get ground down while Israel continues a methodic push into S Lebanon.
Psyops and guessing games increase concerning Iran’s announced pending attack. Timing and size are on the table. Latest RUMINT on timing is sometime between the US elections and inauguration - a two month window. Iran also announced that the forces participating will include regular Iranian units. Previously, IRGC units were launching the missiles and drones, being essentially the private army of the mullahs. Now the addition of regular forces. Not sure how much that will add to the mix.
Last two missile barrages appeared to be capped at about 200, and may represent the number of functional TELs available to Iran. No word on any missiles launched from silos. The regular forces may have additional TELs but since the IRGC is the primary unit, the availability of those TELs may be minimal. So how does Iran come to the claim of the next attack involving thousands of missiles? Mostly bluster for arab consumption I believe.
The US elections are a big factor that Iran is keeping in mind (as well as does Israel). Having 6 B52s parked on your front door and B2s that can arrive at any time would normally give one pause. Determination to use that power is another matter altogether. I don’t think Iran will wait much longer beyond tomorrow else they start to loose face in the arab world as well as their force preparation starts to degrade with their OPSEC. The latter opening its self up to an Israeli preemptive strike.
Israel’s preparations with THAADS support should be adequate to handle a missile attack of the previous numbers. Israel has also transited a missile corvette thru the Suez canal armed with surface to surface missiles that will soon be in position in the Arabian sea able to reach Iran. Who knows what other capabilities Israel has in position. It clear that Israel’s response to an attack will be post election and the gloves can come off. Israel also has things in Gaza and Lebanon tightened down so as to allow more resources to be available for an Iranian counter strike.
Iran –
Iran is planning a strong and complex response to Israel involving even more powerful warheads and other weapons, WSJ reported citing Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans. Iran is planning the attack after the election, but before the inauguration of the next president, Iranian officials said, Iran has also told Arab diplomats that its conventional army would be involved because it had lost four soldiers and a civilian in Israel’s attack, the Iranian and Arab officials said.
***
RUMINT - Satellite images from the last few minutes indicate military maneuvers and the movement of missile launchers near the ballistic missile base in Tabriz. The Tabriz facility has surface launch pads as well as about a dozen missile silos.
Rumint. Initial report: Iran has placed ballistic missiles in 74 locations throughout the country in preparation for an attack on Israel, senior Iranian officials confirm to Axios.
Can’t confirm, but many of their recent statements allude to the US and the removal of freedoms which could only happen under a civil war/martial law scenario.
Seems feasible to me.
If Trump wins big, expect the dems to scream to high heaven about election fraud and demand the results be gone over with a fine toothed comb.
Although, if that were really done, that might not work in their favor, so the possibility exists they'll resort to something else.
Washington State may also have called up the National Guard.
ALERT - POSSIBLE LARGE SCALE DRONE ATTACK ON ISRAEL
Still developing. Unconfirmed reports of a large number of drones being launched from Syria and Iraq towards Israel. Further reports of US and coalition fighters scrambling to take them down.
Unconfirmed reports of explosions heard near or over the City of Al-Bukamal on the border between Eastern Syria and Iraq. Possible drone Interceptions by coalition aircraft.
Unconfirmed reports that the US Embassy under an alert as are US forces in the region
Iran’s first attack was preceded by drones, then missiles.
Upcoming hour or so should bring better resolution of what’s happening.
At about 4 PM Amir posted asking for prayer for Israel as big decisions were being made.
yes, saw that too.
His Telegram feed has been strangely silent.
Usually it’s busy at this time of night. Makes me wonder what’s up.
Thanks. 🙏🇮🇱🇮🇱
Same thoughts here.
- T-0 Time to finish the task and make it too big to cheat
FIGHT . . . . . FIGHT. . . . . FIGHT
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Nov 5, 2024
All should increase their awareness of their surroundings and increase monitoring of news sources for quick identification of any areas under protest/riots and avoid.
The best predictor of future behavior, as the truism goes, is past behavior.
And leftist mobs’ favorite behavior in the world is rioting for pseudo-noble causes.
What will Tuesday night look like - many looking at 2016 for clues.
RELATED - Signs going up right now indicating there will be election night mayhem in Seattle. The far-left activists are planning to take over Cal Anderson Park in Capitol Hill. Antifa wants comrades to wear masks and body armor. This is the same area Antifa occupied for weeks for CHAZ in 2020.
***
(FO) PROGRESSIVE ORGS COORDINATE POST-ELECTION RESPONSE: A number of progressive and socialist organizations are beginning public outreach to coordinate and mobilize a response to a potential Trump election victory.
- The Election Response Center is a coalition of 100+ social and political activist organizations including the Working Families Party, MoveOn, Indivisible, the American Civil Liberties Union, and others, who are holding a meeting to discuss how to “move quickly to ‘Make Meaning of the Moment’ after Election Day.”
Freedom Road Socialist Organization (FRSO), a left wing political revolutionary organization, issued an all-call to mobilize in protest after Election Day, regardless of who wins.“FRSO urges our members and supporters to take to the streets and organize the broadest possible protests the day after the November 5 elections… We know that the protests will be larger if Trump wins or declares himself the winner, so it’s important that we try to unite all who can be united… All out for November 6!” reads the statement.
FRSO was active during the 2020 unrest and has organized numerous other demonstrations and protests.
OBSERVATION - The folks at Forward Observer are tracking these developments closely. The big question mark is how quickly will they gain traction when they give the word?
***
Secret Service just uncovered yet another assassination plot against Trump, this time in PA ahead of his Penn State rally. This follows the recent arrest of an Idaho man threatening to shoot him.
https://x.com/TheRedactedInc/status/1853411874953744408
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
The FBI foiled a possible drone attack on an energy facility in Tennessee on Monday, the Justice Department announced, after a man allegedly planned to fly the drones packed with explosives into the plant, which would destroy critical infrastructure.
The Justice Department said the suspect, 24-year-old Skyler Philippi, was arrested and charged with attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction and attempted destruction of an energy facility.
“As charged, Skyler Philippi believed he was moments away from launching an attack on a Nashville energy facility to further his violent white supremacist ideology – but the FBI had already compromised his plot,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement.
He was caught with a drone powered up, and the explosive device armed and located next to the drone.
OBSERVATION - Finally, someone “on the radar” was actually stopped. White supremcists category which the DoJ may try to warp into any trump voter.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The Social Security Administration has finally released the final wage statistics for 2023, and they are quite sobering. According to the report, last year the “median wage” in this country was just $43,222.81. In other words, half of all American workers made less than $43,222.81, and half of all American workers made more than $43,222.81. That is terrible news, because the cost of living has been rising much faster than paycheck have.
***
The Treasury Department has put out its first-ever “National Strategy for Financial Inclusion in the United States” calling on financial institutions to “address disparities” by lowering their standards and amending their business practices.
The goal of the “national strategy” is to increase “inclusion” of so-called “underserved” groups, which it says financial institutions have historically excluded and discriminated against:
The national strategy does not explain how financial institutions could viably provide financial products and services to people who are without a fixed address (homeless).
Likewise, it doesn’t provide any concrete suggestions about how to profitably provide financial products and services to immigrants and refugees (especially, if they’re in the U.S. illegally). It just says they should do it.
Providing more financial products and services to “justice-involved individuals” in the name of inclusion also seems a problematic business risk since, by government definition, “Justice-involved individuals” individuals are:
“People who are now, or have spent time, in jails, youth correctional facilities, or prisons - are at higher risk for injury and death than the general public. They face disproportionate risk of violence, overdose, and suicide.”
OBSERVATION - This is communism folks and an attempt to force banks into the wealth redistribution effort. Following the money in this one will only result in bank failures and more problems for regular customers who will find the banks refusing them service because of priorities to these ‘oppressed’ elements and resources directed to these money black holes.
***
(FO) According to the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor report, 50% of ag economists expect U.S. ranchers to begin rebuilding herds in the first half of 2026. StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman said drought conditions in the west that do not incentivize herd rebuilding “[are] the problem right now.” Suderman added, “We’ve seen a slowdown of cow slaughter. That’s step one, but that’s not rebuilding.”
OBSERVATION - Don’t expect relief from high beef prices for a while.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The last two, of six B-52H bombers from the 5th Bomb Wing deployed to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. All of the bombers are stationed at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
The replacement of romney’s niece with Trumps DIL at the head of the RNC has paid off in the attention given to preemptively hit cheating attempts by democrats. Armed with the knowledge of their tactics, the RNC and supporting private legal elements of conservative organizations, launched numerous lawsuits which has taken the wind out of the sails of much of the democrat attempts to cheat by bringing in ‘late’ ballots, scanning fraudulent ballots, sneaking in ballots, etc. A lot of this was also helped by the massive vote early efforts which seem to have forced the leftist’s hand.
Preemptively, RNC has reported that they have at least 500 lawyers in each key state ready to challenge additional identified cheating and ‘irregularities’. At least this time around we are far more ready than 2020.
Russia -
*****
Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.
The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.
Now investigators and spy agencies in Europe have figured out how the devices—electric massagers implanted with a magnesium-based flammable substance—were made and concluded that they were part of a wider Russian plot, according to security officials and people familiar with the probe.
Security officials say the electric massagers, sent to the U.K. from Lithuania, appear to have been a test run to figure out how to get such incendiary devices aboard planes bound for North America.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Senior officials in the Kremlin: “Israel should know that as soon as it attacks the nuclear facilities in Iran with the cooperation of the US, we will give Iran nuclear bombs and chemical warheads.”
OBSERVATION - This may be just talk and posturing, but the real risk is nuclear proliferation and nuclear blackmail Russian has aggressively been playing the past several years. If evidence of nuclear warheads appear in Iran, Israel will turn it into a nuclear wasteland soon thereafter.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
2/2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
78/79 Shahed drones (48 shot down, 30 by electronic warfare)
One drone returned to Russia.
Drones were primarily focused on the Kyiv region.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukrainian Ground Forces in the Kursk Region of Western Russia, are claiming to have had their First Engagement with North Korean Troops; as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated today that over 11,000 North Korean Soldiers have now been Deployed to the Kursk Region.
The U.S. State Department estimates that 10,000 North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia’s Kursk region to join the fighting.
Ukraine gained ground in the northern areas of the salient over the past few days.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
Tracking the NK forces. Question was raised - would the NK forces follow Korean War mass human wave attacks? No, they don’t have the numbers to do so. Being Opcon to Russian forces, they likely may be used to some extent in the infamous Russian ‘meat attacks’ though. Depends upon how callous putin is towards these forces and his willingness to send most of them home in body bags.
Russia continues to press the drone game almost every day now.
Meanwhile, the fight in the Donbas region continues to be pressed by Russia with minimal gains with heavy losses.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Peskov commented on the elections in Moldova, won by the pro-European Maia Sandu, stating that the results of the presidential elections cannot be considered clean due to numerous manipulations. He highlighted that hundreds of thousands of Moldovans living in Russia were not given the right to vote, which affected the results. Additionally, he claimed that the majority of Transnistrian residents were not allowed to vote.
OBSERVATION - Peskov pressing the victim angle in losing. This election will not stop Russia’s attempts to influence Moldovan policies and stop the move to the EU, but will just make the fight fiercer in the parliament.
Poland –
(FO) Poland’s government claims to have strong evidence of a Russian sabotage attempt. Their Foreign Minister ordered 10 Russian Consulate workers expelled, will close a Russian Consulate in western Poland, and is reportedly considering expelling the Russian Ambassador to Poland. On Friday, Poland began building its barriers for East Shield, Poland’s plan to militarize the border with Belarus.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel increased its state of alert overnight.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
NOTE ON YESTERDAY’S ALERT - See Islamic Resistance below. Apparently their announcement was taken and amplified by arab media. They did fire numerous drones, but only a few managed to reach Israel.
The IDF has heightened its state of alert and readiness in anticipation of a possible Iranian response to the recent Israeli strike.
Talk of Israel considering a preemptive strike against Iran.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The IDF is building multiple observation posts along the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egypt-Gaza border to lessen the need for ground forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF has withdrawn brigades from Lebanon for refreshment
***
Israel has laid out conditions for future operations in Lebanon.
1. If no ceasefire is reached, the IDF plans to intensify ground operations and airstrikes in Lebanon, pushing deeper to dismantle Hezbollah’s secondary defense lines.
2.Israel will prevent Lebanese residents from returning to border towns until northern Israeli residents can safely return; even after a ceasefire, the IDF will maintain a substantial presence along the border
***
OSINT evaluations indicates that
1. Hezbollah’s rocket fire has dropped significantly, from 200-300 rockets per day to a maximum of 90 per day.
2. The number of rockets per barrage has dropped dramatically, from 30-60 or even over 100 rockets at a time to just 5-20—and sometimes they struggle to launch even 2 rockets.
https://x.com/osint613/status/1853725888023547910?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian Observatory: 2 killed, 5 injured from Hezbollah in Israeli raid on farm near Sayyida Zeinab neighborhood in Damascus.
***
“Infrastructure and assets of Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in the Damascus area were attacked. Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters operates a branch in Syria, which includes a collection and evaluation system, and it operates independently. Hezbollah, with the support of the Syrian regime, endangers the safety of Syrian citizens by establishing headquarters and forces in civilian areas of the country.”
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a collection of Iranian-backed groups in both Iraq and Syria, released a series of statements claiming to have launched multiple drones last night against military targets and infrastructure within the city of Haifa in Northwestern Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Yesterday’s drone attack alert caused numerous OSINT folks to flare red lights initially and cautiously. The potential was there, but not just at this time.
Assessment of the increased scale of Iran’s next attack is interesting (see Iran below). Potentially double the previous attacks. The assets potentially contributed by the regular Iranian forces suggest a degree of desperation by Iran. Long range drones being tapped and even sending Su-24’s on a one way trip to launch stand off weapons - folks, IAF will eat their lunch before they even get close enough to launch.
If the assessment is relatively accurate, this will be a very serious strike with great potential for damage to Israeli locations. This will unplug Israel from any restraints and Israel will hit Iran back in a massive manner.
Timing remains the big question. Israel’s defensive posture suggests they see the attempt coming very soon, soon enough for Israel to contemplate a preemptive strike. Post election may grant some cover for Iran as govt eyes will be focused here, and not so much there and with a longer delay for any US offensive action (if any).
Hezbollah continues to be reduced in Lebanon as well as in locations in Syria where some command and intel centers have moved in an effort to avoid targeting by Israel. Hasn’t worked too well.
Osint’s analysis echoes what I’ve been observing and IDF claiming. The mighty Hezbollah rocket threat has been emasculated. The drone side of the equation has been causing more issues than rockets.
Though there is talk, many don’t see Hezbollah capitulating to any ceasefire or compliance who UN 1701 any time soon. I suspect that pressure by the Lebanese govt and anti-Hezbollah sects will have to increase before Hezbollah will capitulate.
Gaza continues to be the site of Hamas’ last stand. IDF forces are increasing to squeeze strongholds in N Gaza.
The US reportedly still isn’t happy with the amount of relief entering Gaza, especially with the expulsion of UN relief agencies. These agencies reportedly only handle something like 17% of the aid that enters the area anyway.
Finally, reportedly Hamas has lost all tracking / locations of any Israeli hostage. The US most recent proposal for a ceasefire, already rejected by Hamas, only called for the release of 4 - that’s right, FOUR, of the hostages in exchange for 100 Hamas prisoners and 60 day ceasefire. Sorry to have to recognize that barring any miracles, the remaining hostages are likely to be dead very soon. When that threshold is crossed, any restraint towards the remaining elements of Hamas will likely vanish and an immense revenge factor kicked in.
Iran –
Iranian media reported that the Iranian satellites Kausar and Hodhod were launched into space with the Russian Soyuz launcher.
NOTE - These are reportedly micro satellites that were part of a larger payload of micro’s. Their purpose has not been reported.
***
The U.S. State Department has said that their message to Iran and Iranian Supreme-Leader, Ali Khamenei, is that they should not escalate the conflict in the Middle East, but that if they do the United States will defend its interests in the region and Israel.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1853516577586507822?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Researcher with the Washington Institute, wrote on his X account, that Iran may launch its retaliatory strike against Israel on Tuesday night during the U.S. Presidential Election. With the attack likely to involve at least 400 Missiles aimed at Israeli Air Defense Bases and Sites, as well as Defense Manufacturing Industries around the city of Haifa. Iran is likely to utilize its “Khorramshahr-4” Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles, as well as missiles launched by Iranian-Backed Groups in Iraq and possible Syria; in addition, the Iranian Army or Artesh is expected to participate, likely using its “Arash” Long-Range Attack Drones and Su-24MK “Fencer-D” Tactical Bombers, equipped with Stand-Off Weapons.
OBSERVATION - Interesting assessment in the assets Iran may use this next time around. Other reports note Haifa may bear the brunt of the next attack.
Iraq -
Overnight, reports of alert state increased at U.S Embassy, Baghdad and at the airport and bases where U.S forces are.
The banks were told they had to give home loans to people with bad credit, which was a contributing factor to the housing collapse. To add insult to injury the banks were forced to pay compensation that went to the NGOs that pushed these loans to begin with. Now there’s millions of unvetted illegals the government wants to sell homes to.
I am no fan of big banks, but they should not be forced into being social and welfare agents. The rest of us have to pay.
Absolutely right. Forcing income redistribution that will hurt us.
The day after and a new reality is beginning to set in.
Globalism / Great Reset –
“If Trump becomes President again in 2024…it will be the final death blow…to the Global Order…”
- WEF’s Yuval Noah Harari
Advisor to Klaus Schwab
OBSERVATION - The WEF and the global order will not disappear that quickly and easily. They are already buried too deeply in Europe, Canada and Australia to just up and pack their bags. Trump will be a significant barrier, especially armed with Musk and others who are hot against globalists as well.
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Nov 5, 2024
Maintaining higher status in the face of a Trump victory - see below
NOTE - Violence overnight was very minimal as noted below.
** My Observations post Trump victory and CW2 **
Pretty simple at this stage, the scope of his victory (EV landslide and popular vote) is forcing a recalibration of the violent left’s goals and tactics. “spontaneous” rioting does not appear to be on the immediate radar, but there continue to be potential trigger points - so we are’t out of the woods yet.
One of the key things I sense that will keep riots down in the short term is the emotions and drive of harris supporters. I see primarily despair and disappointment. This is contrasted with the response of hillary supporters who also had despair, but were triggered forward out of a sense of outrage over the election being ‘stolen’ because of the close results and hillary winning the popular vote while losing the EV. Remember, hillary was (and still is) a mega denier. Harris even if she tried couldn’t rouse the same anger - the win was too big and across the board.
I rate the possibility of pre-inauguration violence increasing toward Jan 2025. The left will cling to lawfare as the means now to keep trump out of office and the corrupt judges and prosecutors have their marching orders to do all they can to accomplish the task. But the election results - a mandate for Trump - should be giving them second thoughts. In two months the blow back from the Trump administration will be big and their corrupt prosecutions blowing wide open. The finality of the lawfare may be basis for violence on both sides and may trigger major scraps as this would create a significant constitutional crisis.
The Electoral College process is still vulnerable to disruption when the Electors meet in December. Republican control of the Senate in January will prevent Democrats from disrupting the transfer of power from Biden to Trump by blocking certification or passing a bill disqualifying Trump under the 14th Amendment. (FO)
Beyond that increasing potential for riots as Trump begins mass deportations and cracks down on the open border. Both are big causes for the lefties. Trump’s first year in office is potentially turbulent.
Finally, actions by foreign terrorists and gangs will vary. Gangs may become more aggressive in the face of deportations while foreign agents may lie low and appear under the cover of larger protests and riots. To do so independently could expose their networks too soon.
Bottom line, hold tight and keep your powder dry.
***
A voting site in Centre County, Pennsylvania was evacuated after a group of unidentified “disruptors” stormed the polling station, Daily Mail reported.
According to the Centre County Report, local police ordered the evacuation around 7 p.m. ET as multiple individuals burst into the polling site.
The identities of those involved, as well as their affiliations or motivations, remain undisclosed. Authorities have not yet confirmed whether the disruptors are linked to either of the leading campaigns.
Bellefonte sits in Central Pennsylvania. Centre County voted Democrat in the most recent presidential election, with Joe Biden winning 51.4% of the vote to Donald Trump’s 46.7%.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/11/voting-site-key-swing-state-pennsylvania-evacuated-after/
***
Seattle Police shut down the Antifa election night riot in the area near the former CHAZ autonomous zone occupation.
***
The Georgia Secretary of State reports that a Series of Bomb Threats earlier today which caused 2 Polling Locations in Fulton County to be Temporarily Closed, originated from Russia.
The FBI reports that bomb threats at several polling stations across multiple states seem to be traced back to Russian email domains.
***
MSNBC correspondent Joy Reid said that Florida has an “extremist right-wing fascist type” government following GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump’s win in the state and the failure of an abortion ballot measure.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/media/joy-reid-says-florida-has-extremist-right-wing-fascist-type-government
OBSERVATION - Even in the face of an election and the vote of the people, the rabid left still spews this nonsense. This indicates that the hatred of trump and all opponents of their agenda is still brewing.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The share of newly constructed homes among total homes sold in the third quarter declined in the United States, affected by factors such as a slowdown in construction and an increased supply of existing houses, according to real estate brokerage Redfin.
“Newly built homes made up 28 percent of single-family homes for sale nationwide in the third quarter, the lowest level in three years,” the company said in a Nov. 1 statement. “That’s down from 30.5 percent a year earlier and a record-high 34.4 percent at the start of 2022.”
OBSERVATION - Housing market has always been a key indicator of the economy’s health and it is still acting in an unhealthy manner.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
***
President Donald Trump has officially won the popular vote and the Electoral College.
Trump leads in Michigan, and Arizona, which will bring him to over 300 electors!
Claims being made that Vice-President Kamala Harris has called President-Elect Donald J. Trump to concede the race and congratulate him on the win, appear to be false.
Kamala Harris has chosen not to concede or address her supporters.
Currently, both the House and Senate are going to be in Republican control.
OBSERVATION - The combined EV landslide AND win of the popular vote has moved his second term into MANDATE mode. This has sharp implications for the democrat resistance in the near term. See my observations under CW2 above.
Biden / Harris Watch –
harris didn’t even address her ‘supporters’ last night. Didn’t call to congratulate Trump. A sore loser.
Russia -
*****
Commenting on Trump’s win, putin stated the US has now become a hostile country.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
For the first time, Ukraine drones have attacked the base of Russian Navy Caspian Sea Fleet in Kaspiysk, Dagestan. Drones reportedly hit at least two targets in Kaspiysk, Dagestan: the Project 11661 Tatarstan and Project 11661K Dagestan Gepard-class frigates.
Slow night for Russian drones, only a few fired off overnight.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
Trump’s win will reverberate in the war on both sides. One of Trump’s promises was to stop the fighting. His path for doing that has not been made clear but may involve Ukraine ceding some territory with vast drawdowns and removal of Russian forces from the theater. Should putin refuse, then there is a possibility Trump will allow Ukraine freer hand in deep strikes. This will be something that develops over the next couple of months.
Until then, the on the ground battles continue to grind of with no signs of any serious breakouts to upset the dynamic status quo.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu fired the defense minister Galant overnight. Riots broke out in support of Gallant.
- Katz - Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel will become the defense minister
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu just fired the defense minister Galant. Katz - Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel will become the defense minister within 48 hours.
Protests into the firing of Gallant have begun in Tel Aviv, with demonstrators currently blocking the shalom Interchange and moving on Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea.
The Office of the Prime Minister has said that media reports which suggested that Netanyahu was preparing to remove both the IDF Chief of General Staff and the Director of Shin Bet, are false and attempts to create division within the Country.
Gallant in a Statement just now to the Media, claims that there are three reasons for his removal as Defense Minister, they include:
1. His demand that Ultra-Orthodox Jews be included in the Draft to carry out their Mandatory Service.
2. His support for a Ceasefire and Hostage Deal in the Gaza Strip.
3. His support for an Inquiry into the Failings of the Military and Intelligence Establishment on October 7th.
A Statement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, following his removal of Gallant earlier, “Unfortunately, over the past few months, the trust between me and the Minister of Defense has cracked. Significant gaps were discovered in the management of the war, and these gaps were accompanied by statements and actions that contradict the decisions of the government and the decisions of the cabinet.”
Pentagon says it will work closely with Israel’s new defense minister after dismissal of “trusted partner” Gallant.
OBSERVATION - Many consider this to be Netanyahu’s quick strike seeing that Trump was going to be reelected. Gallant has been in pocket of 0bama and biden and has been working behind Netanyahu’s back to force biden’s demands for executing the current war onto Israel. With Gallant gone and with him the overt pressure from the biden regime with a trump presidency in the future, Netanyahu now has a clearer path to prosecute the war the way he sees fit.
***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reported to have approved a plan to offer upwards of $5 Million as well as travel outside of Gaza, for any Palestinian in the Gaza Strip who aids in the return of a Hostage.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israeli forces have entered the second month of their prolonged operation in Jabaliya, in the northern third of the Gaza Strip, effectively placing the area under siege, the IDF confirmed Tuesday. About 1000 Hamas terrorists have been killed since the start of the operation with about 500-600 still imbedded within the core of Jabaliya’s refugee camp or in nearby towns such as Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/skfuaydwyl
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued hammering of key Hezbollah facilities in the north and methodic ground gains in the south.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli army: We attacked weapons depots used by Hezbollah’s armament unit in Syria
———WEST BANK——————————-
PA security forces detonated explosive devices prepared to confront Israeli security forces operation in Tubas
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The removal of the defense minister in the midst of a multi front war is almost unheard of. However, Gallant has been the puppet of biden and 0bama for the last number of years as the american leftists have tried to eliminate Netanyahu from the Israeli political scene. In recent months Gallant has contacted Washington behind Netanyahu’s back on implementing biden’s essential surrender to Hamas for hostages. Netanyahu may have seen Trump’s win coming and took the risk to remove him. Now Netanyahu has to trouble out the next couple months of the lame duck biden regime’s likely retaliation.
The Trump win also changes the dynamics of the middle east conflict. Trump was one of the biggest supporters of Israel in his first term and his campaigning in 2024 showed no change in that support. He has repeatedly said Israel has the right to defend itself and will not hinder their actions.
With Iran’s two big proxy groups - Hamas and Hezbollah - on the verge of being fully terminated and facing Israel, exposed, on its own, the Mullah’s must be rethinking their strategy. They have a two month window of action before Trump comes and an reimposes the strict sanctions it suffered thru before. It means that the US force build up in the region will continue to be restrained from offensive actions, even in the event US bases are hit. Once Trump hit office, they know he understands the economy of force in the middle east and has demonstrated his willingness to use it. Iran is looking down the barrel of Israel’s gun and the inclusion of a US threat may be too much. So it may try to strike in this lame duck period and get all the milage it can.
Best continued guesstimation at this stage continues to be an Iranian attack in the next few days.
In Gaza, Israeli tactics on significantly reduced Hamas forces has shifted to more pinpoint efforts. As the article I linked to above indicates, snipers, drones and new high precision mortars are being lethally employed as Hamas tries to pass itself off as civilians.
Israel is transitioning more and more into a post-Hamas mode, working on closing who will be the new leadership of Gaza. No matter who is in control of Gaza when the dust settles, IDF will have a large presence for the near future.
Hezbollah continues to fight but Israel has the initiative. They have little to no help coming from Iran and declining reserves of ammo and rockets/missiles. Israel is wrapping up the capture and destruction of hezbollah bases in the border zone. In the next few weeks Israel will likely move on the second belt if there isn’t progress on a ceasefire and effective disarmament of and removal of Hezbollah to locations north of the Litiani River.
As the fight goes on, Israel seems to be swaying the Lebanese govt to be more forceful towards Hezbollah. Their readiness to deploy 1500 to the south is a starter, but vastly too small to make any 1 on 1 enforcement with Hezbollah impossible without Israeli support. That cooperation isn’t happening yet.
Iraq -
The Biden administration warned the Iraqi government that if it doesn’t prevent an Iranian attack from its soil, it could face an Israeli attack on its territory, two U.S. officials told
Lebanon -
Sources in the Lebanese government update that at the meeting of the Lebanese government that will take place tomorrow, a decision is expected to be made to deploy 1,500 additional soldiers from the Lebanese army south of the Litani river, as a first step in implementing Resolution 1701
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.