Countdown going big - T-1 days out from election day.
FIGHT . . . . . FIGHT. . . . . FIGHT
Two important events that affect us.
1. Tomorrow’s election and any rioting
2. Impending Iranian missile attack on Israel likely to happen some time after the election.
Folks, this ride doesn’t end tomorrow, it is only just beginning to enter a whole new level.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Discussions across the inter webs of the WEF et al working behind the scenes in 2025 to help facilitate some kind of civil war in the US in order to ties us down and allow the start of the ‘great reset’ and global control while we are internally occupied.
Can’t confirm, but many of their recent statements allude to the US and the removal of freedoms which could only happen under a civil war/martial law scenario.
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Oct 30, 2024
IMHO, some initial rioting in Antifa strongholds - major urban centers - will break out tomorrow night in scattered areas as the returns come in.
Worst case scenario develops if the win is big for trump. On Wednesday, the MSM and democrat mouthpieces will be out calling for more ‘resistance’ as well as efforts to prevent trump from being certified. This will result in an explosion of violence from the already prepped for violence against the ‘nazi’s’ and ‘facist’ threat to the nation. Could see Karens and Kens violently assaulting republican homes and persons in an unorganized, spontaneous manner. Some of that is already occurring.
I would also expect the lawfare aspect to rear its ugly head with potential attempts to jail trump.
Worst case scenario grows as Antifa/democrat elements push harder into the suburbs and this time may well face lethal defense action by residents.
Blue states may take independent actions against Trump and supporters/republican party.
How far this will go depends on what ever restraint the DNC has to prevent all out civil war and the destruction of the country. Absent cooler heads, things may well get ugly.
Best case results are that such riots burn themselves out quickly. But that is not certain.
I hate to be such a doomer, but then I’ve posted what the left is saying they will do and I’m taking them at their word.
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Public Safety Alert: Masked Antifa Protest/Riot is planned for Election Day. Do not come to Downtown Portland OR on the evening of November 5th.
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The District of Columbia is preparing for mass riots after the announcement of the results of the presidential election.
An additional security cordon, has been placed around the White House and the Capitol. Also a second layer of fencing has been erected around the White House. This is in addition to the deadly spikes added the main fence.
Other federal government buildings are also being fenced-off or boarded up.
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Democratic Governor, Jay Inslee, has activated the National Guard to prepare for potential “election-related violence,” with the order extending beyond the November 5th election to address any civil unrest as needed.
Oregon, Nevada, and reportedly New Mexico have also put their National Guard on Stand-by.
These are traditionally “Blue” states.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Sec Def ordered deployment of additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron, tanker aircraft and several B-52 long-range strike bombers to MidEast. These forces will begin to arrive in coming months as the USS Lincoln Carrier Strike Group prepares to depart.
BARF21 & BARF22 (B-52) departed Minot AFB, ND last night for Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar to join LIVID11 & LIVID12 that arrived yesterday making it a total of 4 B-52s in the region.
According to U.S. Officials that spoke to Air & Space Forces Magazine; a total of six B-52H bombers as well as a squadron of F-15E Strike Eagles, and several aerial-refueling tankers have been ordered and will soon arrive in the Middle East.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1853266500838129750?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
After a commissioner for the Federal Communications Commission accused Saturday Night Live of violating federal rules following a surprise appearance from Vice President Kamala Harris, NBC offered former President Donald Trump‘s campaign free commercial time on the network.
Since Harris appeared on SNL for 90 seconds, NBC must offer an equal amount of time to Trump’s campaign to be in accordance with the FCC’s Equal Time rule. That rule also includes a statute that allows the FCC to revoke a broadcaster’s license “for willful or repeated failure” to offer the same amount of airtime to candidates campaigning for the same office.
Trump’s 90 seconds were reportedly aired during a NASCAR race.
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Progressive House members Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) showed up to boost Harris. But Dearborn’s Democrat congressional representative Rashida Tlaib refused to concur on an endorsement, instead urgings UAW members to focus on down-ballot races
Tlaib’s abstention is worse than it looks. Earlier in the day, Tlaib accused Trump of being “a proud Islamophobe + a serial liar who doesn’t stand for peace.” But then she also accused the “Biden admin” of giving “unconditional support for genocide” in the same tweet.
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Take a deep breath, because the only poll that matters is tomorrows voting. With that said, Atlas Intel, who produced the most accurate polls in 2020, has come out with their last poll that shows trump winning all battleground states and leading nationally that would result in a Electoral College victory of 312-226.
OBSERVATION - I would caveat the above noting that the 2020 polls did not factor in the democrat cheating during the late night and early morning hours. So this firm may not be as accurate on that basis. Bottom line - get our there and vote.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The Biden-Harris government’s Department of Agriculture is quietly reclassifying numerous property developers and other companies in what appears to be an effort to work around restrictions on Chinese land ownership near U.S. military bases and installations. The move comes despite continued warnings from the U.S. intelligence community and other agencies in the Biden-Harris government that China poses an increasing national security risk and is actively opposing U.S. interests through domestic and foreign counter-intelligence actions.At the center of the Department of Agriculture controversy is the recent change in designation for Walton Global, a property developer that has been considered one of the top Chinese-controlled U.S. land owners for years. The company has expanded its footprint in China since 2018 and was—until recently—listed by the U.S. government as one of the five top Chinese owners of U.S. agricultural land.
However, in September, Walton Global—after an extensive lobbying campaign—convinced the Department of Agriculture to reclassify much of its U.S. landholdings as not being Chinese-owned. The decision comes even though Walton owns at least 14 properties with some degree of Chinese investment, all within 15 miles of a U.S. military base or installation. Concerningly, the company has even touted its proximity to American military sites in advertising campaigns aimed at Chinese investors.
OBSERVATIONS - The Dept of Agriculture’s actions are treasonous. This on top of already high concerns over covert Chinese purchases of property.
Russia -
*****
(Zero Hedge)—Days after Russia launched a massive readiness drill of their nuclear forces, former Russian President and current deputy chairman of the country’s Security Counsel Dmitry Medvedev says that the outcome of the US election doesn’t matter, as both candidates believe “Russia must be defeated,” and that if Donald Trump is elected and tries to intervene, he may be assassinated.
Medvedev made the comments to his nearly 1.4 million followers on Telegram.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 80 Shahed drones of which 77 were shot down. 50 by regular air defense and 27 by electronic warfare.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
Strategically, Ukraine is rushing to shore up European allies in the event of a trump reelection. This may force some sort of ceasefire / peace talks. Russian has already stated they will not relinquish any captured territory and threatens nuclear war otherwise.
Russia is striving harder along the Donbas front to gain more terrain before the weather changes to mud. They have scrapped tank and armored forces together to charge Ukrainian positions with some local success, but also some devastating losses. Equipment is harder to replace than people and soon they may be forced by either no armor or mud conditions to resume leg infantry heavy meat attacks.
Russia also maintaining a high Shahed drone effort. Ukraine doing a good job in defense but locally those defenses are being overwhelmed and some manage to get thru to their targets.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Despite reported Russian interference, pro-EU Moldovan President Maia Sandu has won reelection as president of Moldova. Race was marred by accusations of heavy Russian interference and money infusions to her opponent.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Rumored Iranian preparations for another missile launch
- Deployment of additional US military assets in the region to deter Iran from expanding their attacks.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Continued pressure on remnant Hamas and other terror elements.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF has completely leveled the Hezbollah stronghold of Meiss El Jabal, leaving almost the entire village entirely erased.
NOTE - Hezbollah constructed extensive bunker facilities beneath these villages with entrances/exits tied to overlying village buildings. The process of destroying these bunkers also destroys overlying buildings. Only one area of the Lebanese border has not had their villages destroyed. This area the people stood up to Hezbollah and refused to allow them to militarize their towns.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Kataib Sarkha al-Quds, an Iranian-backed paramilitary group in Iraq, has issued a threat against both Israel and the United States; claiming that if they launch attacks against the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, then they will respond with missile and drone strikes on their bases across the region.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
An almost routine 24 hours on the ground. Hamas and Hezbollah continue to get ground down while Israel continues a methodic push into S Lebanon.
Psyops and guessing games increase concerning Iran’s announced pending attack. Timing and size are on the table. Latest RUMINT on timing is sometime between the US elections and inauguration - a two month window. Iran also announced that the forces participating will include regular Iranian units. Previously, IRGC units were launching the missiles and drones, being essentially the private army of the mullahs. Now the addition of regular forces. Not sure how much that will add to the mix.
Last two missile barrages appeared to be capped at about 200, and may represent the number of functional TELs available to Iran. No word on any missiles launched from silos. The regular forces may have additional TELs but since the IRGC is the primary unit, the availability of those TELs may be minimal. So how does Iran come to the claim of the next attack involving thousands of missiles? Mostly bluster for arab consumption I believe.
The US elections are a big factor that Iran is keeping in mind (as well as does Israel). Having 6 B52s parked on your front door and B2s that can arrive at any time would normally give one pause. Determination to use that power is another matter altogether. I don’t think Iran will wait much longer beyond tomorrow else they start to loose face in the arab world as well as their force preparation starts to degrade with their OPSEC. The latter opening its self up to an Israeli preemptive strike.
Israel’s preparations with THAADS support should be adequate to handle a missile attack of the previous numbers. Israel has also transited a missile corvette thru the Suez canal armed with surface to surface missiles that will soon be in position in the Arabian sea able to reach Iran. Who knows what other capabilities Israel has in position. It clear that Israel’s response to an attack will be post election and the gloves can come off. Israel also has things in Gaza and Lebanon tightened down so as to allow more resources to be available for an Iranian counter strike.
Iran –
Iran is planning a strong and complex response to Israel involving even more powerful warheads and other weapons, WSJ reported citing Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans. Iran is planning the attack after the election, but before the inauguration of the next president, Iranian officials said, Iran has also told Arab diplomats that its conventional army would be involved because it had lost four soldiers and a civilian in Israel’s attack, the Iranian and Arab officials said.
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RUMINT - Satellite images from the last few minutes indicate military maneuvers and the movement of missile launchers near the ballistic missile base in Tabriz. The Tabriz facility has surface launch pads as well as about a dozen missile silos.
Rumint. Initial report: Iran has placed ballistic missiles in 74 locations throughout the country in preparation for an attack on Israel, senior Iranian officials confirm to Axios.
Can’t confirm, but many of their recent statements allude to the US and the removal of freedoms which could only happen under a civil war/martial law scenario.
Seems feasible to me.
If Trump wins big, expect the dems to scream to high heaven about election fraud and demand the results be gone over with a fine toothed comb.
Although, if that were really done, that might not work in their favor, so the possibility exists they'll resort to something else.
Washington State may also have called up the National Guard.
ALERT - POSSIBLE LARGE SCALE DRONE ATTACK ON ISRAEL
Still developing. Unconfirmed reports of a large number of drones being launched from Syria and Iraq towards Israel. Further reports of US and coalition fighters scrambling to take them down.
Unconfirmed reports of explosions heard near or over the City of Al-Bukamal on the border between Eastern Syria and Iraq. Possible drone Interceptions by coalition aircraft.
Unconfirmed reports that the US Embassy under an alert as are US forces in the region
Iran’s first attack was preceded by drones, then missiles.
Upcoming hour or so should bring better resolution of what’s happening.
- T-0 Time to finish the task and make it too big to cheat
FIGHT . . . . . FIGHT. . . . . FIGHT
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Nov 5, 2024
All should increase their awareness of their surroundings and increase monitoring of news sources for quick identification of any areas under protest/riots and avoid.
The best predictor of future behavior, as the truism goes, is past behavior.
And leftist mobs’ favorite behavior in the world is rioting for pseudo-noble causes.
What will Tuesday night look like - many looking at 2016 for clues.
RELATED - Signs going up right now indicating there will be election night mayhem in Seattle. The far-left activists are planning to take over Cal Anderson Park in Capitol Hill. Antifa wants comrades to wear masks and body armor. This is the same area Antifa occupied for weeks for CHAZ in 2020.
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(FO) PROGRESSIVE ORGS COORDINATE POST-ELECTION RESPONSE: A number of progressive and socialist organizations are beginning public outreach to coordinate and mobilize a response to a potential Trump election victory.
- The Election Response Center is a coalition of 100+ social and political activist organizations including the Working Families Party, MoveOn, Indivisible, the American Civil Liberties Union, and others, who are holding a meeting to discuss how to “move quickly to ‘Make Meaning of the Moment’ after Election Day.”
Freedom Road Socialist Organization (FRSO), a left wing political revolutionary organization, issued an all-call to mobilize in protest after Election Day, regardless of who wins.“FRSO urges our members and supporters to take to the streets and organize the broadest possible protests the day after the November 5 elections… We know that the protests will be larger if Trump wins or declares himself the winner, so it’s important that we try to unite all who can be united… All out for November 6!” reads the statement.
FRSO was active during the 2020 unrest and has organized numerous other demonstrations and protests.
OBSERVATION - The folks at Forward Observer are tracking these developments closely. The big question mark is how quickly will they gain traction when they give the word?
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Secret Service just uncovered yet another assassination plot against Trump, this time in PA ahead of his Penn State rally. This follows the recent arrest of an Idaho man threatening to shoot him.
https://x.com/TheRedactedInc/status/1853411874953744408
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
The FBI foiled a possible drone attack on an energy facility in Tennessee on Monday, the Justice Department announced, after a man allegedly planned to fly the drones packed with explosives into the plant, which would destroy critical infrastructure.
The Justice Department said the suspect, 24-year-old Skyler Philippi, was arrested and charged with attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction and attempted destruction of an energy facility.
“As charged, Skyler Philippi believed he was moments away from launching an attack on a Nashville energy facility to further his violent white supremacist ideology – but the FBI had already compromised his plot,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement.
He was caught with a drone powered up, and the explosive device armed and located next to the drone.
OBSERVATION - Finally, someone “on the radar” was actually stopped. White supremcists category which the DoJ may try to warp into any trump voter.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The Social Security Administration has finally released the final wage statistics for 2023, and they are quite sobering. According to the report, last year the “median wage” in this country was just $43,222.81. In other words, half of all American workers made less than $43,222.81, and half of all American workers made more than $43,222.81. That is terrible news, because the cost of living has been rising much faster than paycheck have.
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The Treasury Department has put out its first-ever “National Strategy for Financial Inclusion in the United States” calling on financial institutions to “address disparities” by lowering their standards and amending their business practices.
The goal of the “national strategy” is to increase “inclusion” of so-called “underserved” groups, which it says financial institutions have historically excluded and discriminated against:
The national strategy does not explain how financial institutions could viably provide financial products and services to people who are without a fixed address (homeless).
Likewise, it doesn’t provide any concrete suggestions about how to profitably provide financial products and services to immigrants and refugees (especially, if they’re in the U.S. illegally). It just says they should do it.
Providing more financial products and services to “justice-involved individuals” in the name of inclusion also seems a problematic business risk since, by government definition, “Justice-involved individuals” individuals are:
“People who are now, or have spent time, in jails, youth correctional facilities, or prisons - are at higher risk for injury and death than the general public. They face disproportionate risk of violence, overdose, and suicide.”
OBSERVATION - This is communism folks and an attempt to force banks into the wealth redistribution effort. Following the money in this one will only result in bank failures and more problems for regular customers who will find the banks refusing them service because of priorities to these ‘oppressed’ elements and resources directed to these money black holes.
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(FO) According to the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor report, 50% of ag economists expect U.S. ranchers to begin rebuilding herds in the first half of 2026. StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman said drought conditions in the west that do not incentivize herd rebuilding “[are] the problem right now.” Suderman added, “We’ve seen a slowdown of cow slaughter. That’s step one, but that’s not rebuilding.”
OBSERVATION - Don’t expect relief from high beef prices for a while.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The last two, of six B-52H bombers from the 5th Bomb Wing deployed to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. All of the bombers are stationed at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
The replacement of romney’s niece with Trumps DIL at the head of the RNC has paid off in the attention given to preemptively hit cheating attempts by democrats. Armed with the knowledge of their tactics, the RNC and supporting private legal elements of conservative organizations, launched numerous lawsuits which has taken the wind out of the sails of much of the democrat attempts to cheat by bringing in ‘late’ ballots, scanning fraudulent ballots, sneaking in ballots, etc. A lot of this was also helped by the massive vote early efforts which seem to have forced the leftist’s hand.
Preemptively, RNC has reported that they have at least 500 lawyers in each key state ready to challenge additional identified cheating and ‘irregularities’. At least this time around we are far more ready than 2020.
Russia -
*****
Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.
The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.
Now investigators and spy agencies in Europe have figured out how the devices—electric massagers implanted with a magnesium-based flammable substance—were made and concluded that they were part of a wider Russian plot, according to security officials and people familiar with the probe.
Security officials say the electric massagers, sent to the U.K. from Lithuania, appear to have been a test run to figure out how to get such incendiary devices aboard planes bound for North America.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Senior officials in the Kremlin: “Israel should know that as soon as it attacks the nuclear facilities in Iran with the cooperation of the US, we will give Iran nuclear bombs and chemical warheads.”
OBSERVATION - This may be just talk and posturing, but the real risk is nuclear proliferation and nuclear blackmail Russian has aggressively been playing the past several years. If evidence of nuclear warheads appear in Iran, Israel will turn it into a nuclear wasteland soon thereafter.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
2/2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
78/79 Shahed drones (48 shot down, 30 by electronic warfare)
One drone returned to Russia.
Drones were primarily focused on the Kyiv region.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukrainian Ground Forces in the Kursk Region of Western Russia, are claiming to have had their First Engagement with North Korean Troops; as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated today that over 11,000 North Korean Soldiers have now been Deployed to the Kursk Region.
The U.S. State Department estimates that 10,000 North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia’s Kursk region to join the fighting.
Ukraine gained ground in the northern areas of the salient over the past few days.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Continued intense attacks along the front south of Pokrovsk.
Outlook —
Tracking the NK forces. Question was raised - would the NK forces follow Korean War mass human wave attacks? No, they don’t have the numbers to do so. Being Opcon to Russian forces, they likely may be used to some extent in the infamous Russian ‘meat attacks’ though. Depends upon how callous putin is towards these forces and his willingness to send most of them home in body bags.
Russia continues to press the drone game almost every day now.
Meanwhile, the fight in the Donbas region continues to be pressed by Russia with minimal gains with heavy losses.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Peskov commented on the elections in Moldova, won by the pro-European Maia Sandu, stating that the results of the presidential elections cannot be considered clean due to numerous manipulations. He highlighted that hundreds of thousands of Moldovans living in Russia were not given the right to vote, which affected the results. Additionally, he claimed that the majority of Transnistrian residents were not allowed to vote.
OBSERVATION - Peskov pressing the victim angle in losing. This election will not stop Russia’s attempts to influence Moldovan policies and stop the move to the EU, but will just make the fight fiercer in the parliament.
Poland –
(FO) Poland’s government claims to have strong evidence of a Russian sabotage attempt. Their Foreign Minister ordered 10 Russian Consulate workers expelled, will close a Russian Consulate in western Poland, and is reportedly considering expelling the Russian Ambassador to Poland. On Friday, Poland began building its barriers for East Shield, Poland’s plan to militarize the border with Belarus.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel increased its state of alert overnight.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
NOTE ON YESTERDAY’S ALERT - See Islamic Resistance below. Apparently their announcement was taken and amplified by arab media. They did fire numerous drones, but only a few managed to reach Israel.
The IDF has heightened its state of alert and readiness in anticipation of a possible Iranian response to the recent Israeli strike.
Talk of Israel considering a preemptive strike against Iran.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The IDF is building multiple observation posts along the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egypt-Gaza border to lessen the need for ground forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF has withdrawn brigades from Lebanon for refreshment
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Israel has laid out conditions for future operations in Lebanon.
1. If no ceasefire is reached, the IDF plans to intensify ground operations and airstrikes in Lebanon, pushing deeper to dismantle Hezbollah’s secondary defense lines.
2.Israel will prevent Lebanese residents from returning to border towns until northern Israeli residents can safely return; even after a ceasefire, the IDF will maintain a substantial presence along the border
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OSINT evaluations indicates that
1. Hezbollah’s rocket fire has dropped significantly, from 200-300 rockets per day to a maximum of 90 per day.
2. The number of rockets per barrage has dropped dramatically, from 30-60 or even over 100 rockets at a time to just 5-20—and sometimes they struggle to launch even 2 rockets.
https://x.com/osint613/status/1853725888023547910?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian Observatory: 2 killed, 5 injured from Hezbollah in Israeli raid on farm near Sayyida Zeinab neighborhood in Damascus.
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“Infrastructure and assets of Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in the Damascus area were attacked. Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters operates a branch in Syria, which includes a collection and evaluation system, and it operates independently. Hezbollah, with the support of the Syrian regime, endangers the safety of Syrian citizens by establishing headquarters and forces in civilian areas of the country.”
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a collection of Iranian-backed groups in both Iraq and Syria, released a series of statements claiming to have launched multiple drones last night against military targets and infrastructure within the city of Haifa in Northwestern Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Yesterday’s drone attack alert caused numerous OSINT folks to flare red lights initially and cautiously. The potential was there, but not just at this time.
Assessment of the increased scale of Iran’s next attack is interesting (see Iran below). Potentially double the previous attacks. The assets potentially contributed by the regular Iranian forces suggest a degree of desperation by Iran. Long range drones being tapped and even sending Su-24’s on a one way trip to launch stand off weapons - folks, IAF will eat their lunch before they even get close enough to launch.
If the assessment is relatively accurate, this will be a very serious strike with great potential for damage to Israeli locations. This will unplug Israel from any restraints and Israel will hit Iran back in a massive manner.
Timing remains the big question. Israel’s defensive posture suggests they see the attempt coming very soon, soon enough for Israel to contemplate a preemptive strike. Post election may grant some cover for Iran as govt eyes will be focused here, and not so much there and with a longer delay for any US offensive action (if any).
Hezbollah continues to be reduced in Lebanon as well as in locations in Syria where some command and intel centers have moved in an effort to avoid targeting by Israel. Hasn’t worked too well.
Osint’s analysis echoes what I’ve been observing and IDF claiming. The mighty Hezbollah rocket threat has been emasculated. The drone side of the equation has been causing more issues than rockets.
Though there is talk, many don’t see Hezbollah capitulating to any ceasefire or compliance who UN 1701 any time soon. I suspect that pressure by the Lebanese govt and anti-Hezbollah sects will have to increase before Hezbollah will capitulate.
Gaza continues to be the site of Hamas’ last stand. IDF forces are increasing to squeeze strongholds in N Gaza.
The US reportedly still isn’t happy with the amount of relief entering Gaza, especially with the expulsion of UN relief agencies. These agencies reportedly only handle something like 17% of the aid that enters the area anyway.
Finally, reportedly Hamas has lost all tracking / locations of any Israeli hostage. The US most recent proposal for a ceasefire, already rejected by Hamas, only called for the release of 4 - that’s right, FOUR, of the hostages in exchange for 100 Hamas prisoners and 60 day ceasefire. Sorry to have to recognize that barring any miracles, the remaining hostages are likely to be dead very soon. When that threshold is crossed, any restraint towards the remaining elements of Hamas will likely vanish and an immense revenge factor kicked in.
Iran –
Iranian media reported that the Iranian satellites Kausar and Hodhod were launched into space with the Russian Soyuz launcher.
NOTE - These are reportedly micro satellites that were part of a larger payload of micro’s. Their purpose has not been reported.
***
The U.S. State Department has said that their message to Iran and Iranian Supreme-Leader, Ali Khamenei, is that they should not escalate the conflict in the Middle East, but that if they do the United States will defend its interests in the region and Israel.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1853516577586507822?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
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Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Researcher with the Washington Institute, wrote on his X account, that Iran may launch its retaliatory strike against Israel on Tuesday night during the U.S. Presidential Election. With the attack likely to involve at least 400 Missiles aimed at Israeli Air Defense Bases and Sites, as well as Defense Manufacturing Industries around the city of Haifa. Iran is likely to utilize its “Khorramshahr-4” Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles, as well as missiles launched by Iranian-Backed Groups in Iraq and possible Syria; in addition, the Iranian Army or Artesh is expected to participate, likely using its “Arash” Long-Range Attack Drones and Su-24MK “Fencer-D” Tactical Bombers, equipped with Stand-Off Weapons.
OBSERVATION - Interesting assessment in the assets Iran may use this next time around. Other reports note Haifa may bear the brunt of the next attack.
Iraq -
Overnight, reports of alert state increased at U.S Embassy, Baghdad and at the airport and bases where U.S forces are.